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For the Record (Read 173308 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1485 - Nov 18th, 2016 at 12:43pm
 
So, there is movement in the camp!?

On 01/08/2016 -
The US$ index stood at $0.9562
A Barrel of Oil was $40.06, in US$'s.

Today (18/11/2016) -
The US$ index stands at $1.0109
A Barrel of Oil is $45.42, in US$'s.

THE currency used to purchase Oil, is now at 105.72%, compared to what it was back on 01/08/2016.
Which means that some 5.72% more oil, should be able to be purchased, for the same price!?

However, a Barrel of oil today is actually at 113.38%, compared to what it was back on 01/08/2016.

So, what has caused the Price of Oil to increase by 13.38%, whilst the increase in the US$ would suggest it should have Decreased???

I would suggest, the solution/reasoning for this apparent contradiction, is not to be found in the standard DEMAND & SUPPLY equations!!! 
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1486 - Nov 19th, 2016 at 10:47am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Nov 18th, 2016 at 12:43pm:
So, what has caused the Price of Oil to increase by 13.38%, whilst the increase in the US$ would suggest it should have Decreased???

I would suggest, the solution/reasoning for this apparent contradiction, is not to be found in the standard DEMAND & SUPPLY equations!!! 
 


The answer to why the oil price has risen is quite simple

Quote:
Oil prices eked out gains despite a stronger dollar and rising U.S. oil rig count, as hopes that OPEC might agree to limit production cuts at the end of the month boosted sentiment.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is moving closer to finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit output, with most members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/17/oil-prices-fall-as-strong-dollar-wipes-out-opec-c...

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1487 - Dec 24th, 2016 at 3:35pm
 
Baby Boomers And The Ticking Time Bomb


Summary
The market tells a tale of an economy that is in a strong rebound with great employment and huge growth in GDP on the way.

The stock market’s theory seems to ignore several of the demographic factors that press against the market.

The macroeconomic situation is entirely different and is very heavily influenced by demographics.

The unemployment rate is artificially low because many potential workers are dropping out of the labor force.

The challenge to GDP growth from the baby boomers retiring becomes even more severe when we consider the young members of the workforce dropping out.

The stock market and macroeconomic factors are telling a tale of two cities. In one, the economy is in the grip of a full rebound with strong employment and a bright future. In the other, growth rates are weak and the path forward appears mired in stagnation. Many investors want to focus on only one narrative, but both are developing alongside each other.

The Market's Tail
According to the valuations on the stock market, investors and analysts alike are extremely bullish about the future. They see a change in the government leading to intense fiscal stimulus, higher inflation, and a return to the "usual" growth rates of 3% to 4% in real GDP.

The Macroeconomic Tail
All too often investors and analysts look at factors such as the unemployment rate in isolation. While these factors are useful, they should be seen as one part of the puzzle. To understand the unemployment rate, we need to understand the labor force. To understand the labor force, we need to understand the population.

The population is growing materially older as the baby boomers are entering their retirement years. The natural result of baby boomers retiring is that the percentage of the population within the labor force will decrease.
By itself, we should expect the decreasing percentage of the population in the labor force to be a strong headwind to sustainable growth in GDP.

The bigger problem for the future here is that many baby boomers are not yet retired and do not yet require daily care. If the cause for a lower participation rate by prime-age workers is providing care at home, then we would have to expect the participation rate within the prime-age group to decline further as the demographics continue shifting towards an older population.
This scenario would lead to artificially low unemployment rates because fewer people would count in the labor force.


Conclusion
Expect unemployment figures to seem stubbornly low as the workforce continues to represent a smaller fraction of the total population.
The demographic issue pressing against the economy creates a challenge for GDP growth because we may continue to see weakness in the percentage of those in the prime-age group with employment.
As it stands, the retiring of the baby boomer generation by itself created a significant headwind for the economy, but accounting for the decline in workers among the other generations increases the expected impact.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/4031638-baby-boomers-ticking-time-bomb?ifp=0
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Ring any bells???
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1488 - Dec 29th, 2016 at 11:19am
 
When The Horse Is Dead, The Whip Won't Help: It's Time To Dismount And Acknowledge Growth Is Dead


Somehow, neither modern economics, the Federal Reserve, Wall Street nor the typical CFP has considered the world's capacity to consume. Namely, note the total population but more importantly, focus on the change in the population over time (for this exercise, we exclude Africa because sadly they don't matter economically).

The number of global births peaked almost 30 years ago...about 1988. In the most recent five year period, 2010-->2015, births have declined by 71 million (about 14 million fewer annually) since that peak.

So we have a general depopulation under way masked by a one time surge in elderly living longer vs. a collapse in low skill, low wage jobs being replaced by automation and innovation. Net-net, there will be fewer people and fewer people needed to continue producing...but producing more for fewer people with fewer jobs? Just one question, how will fewer people with fewer jobs continue to consume more?


...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4032615-horse-dead-whip-help-time-dismount-ackno...
==================================
There are also some other charts, which can not be transferred here.

All of which, again should "Ring a few Bells"!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1489 - Jan 2nd, 2017 at 12:22pm
 
The_Barnacle wrote on May 31st, 2016 at 9:31pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 15th, 2016 at 3:06pm:
I expect 2016 & 2017 to be crunch years!



I will now make a prediction of my own. on the 1/1/2018 when I remind you that your prediction was wrong, you will explain that events have delayed the collapse and you now confidently predict it will happen in 2018 & 2019.

Lets see if my prediction comes true........


Only a year to go.
The world economy is now in better shape than when you made your prediction last May  Grin Grin Grin
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1490 - Jan 4th, 2017 at 1:09pm
 
When This Bubble Pops Don't Expect To See Markets Collapse (More Likely Free Markets Will Cease To Exist)


Conclusion:
The above data is simple fact and best available estimates. The data point to a demographic and population growth deceleration which has been underway for decades and has been offset via interest rate cuts and massive growth in debt. However, now the global core population with all the income, savings, and access to credit ends decelerating growth and begins outright contracting... and will contract for the rest of our lives. Fewer homebuyers, fewer consumers, coupled with contracting jobs as automation and innovation replace millions of low skill jobs around the world.

I personally don't expect a market based crash or collapse - the central banks and federal governments have already made it clear they no longer believe in free markets (ie, allowing transactions between willing & buyers/sellers that would result in collapsing asset prices). Instead, I believe they will literally do whatever they deem necessary to maintain the incredibly unsustainable present.

Anticipating that they will move from partial market support to total support (or outright market closures) is not hard to see. Of course, it's nearly impossible to imagine how this central control doesn't end terribly but all I can do at this point is hope, against all odds, for the best.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033593-bubble-pops-expect-see-markets-collapse-...
===================================
More charts etc, But some are now more difficult to copy to here.
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1491 - Jan 13th, 2017 at 1:17pm
 
USA Chart on Baby Boomer Births to Total Population Ratio


...

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1492 - Jan 18th, 2017 at 11:30pm
 
Really Percy, you've been banging on for years now. Eventually, of course, you'll be able to say "I told yas so". And so would anybody else.

Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1493 - Jan 19th, 2017 at 9:50am
 
Amadd wrote on Jan 18th, 2017 at 11:30pm:
Really Percy, you've been banging on for years now. Eventually, of course, you'll be able to say "I told yas so". And so would anybody else.

Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.


As previously stated, the "normal Modern Economic cycle" is now ending, as the standard "Major Modern Economic Movers" are now coming to their predictable conclusion.

Those Major Modern Economic Movers being -
1) Demographics (Population Growth)
2) Energy (Cheap & Available)
3) Climate (the fairytale Climate is now changing)
4) Technology (now slowing AND Technology is also a 2 edged sword)

We have already had the GFC, which was only a starter!

The next part of what is coming, has also been long predictable, because TPTB (the Pollies, Big Business & Unions) have for far too long pushed their own Short Term interests, at the expense of the Best, Long Term interests of the Entire Population!

Finally, what & when will precipitate the start of what is to come Economically, is quite difficult because of the amount of "pushing & pulling in various directions.

BUT, I would suggest the Black Swan event, which will push us into the next phase, is now closing in quickly!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1494 - Jan 20th, 2017 at 1:21pm
 
The Continuing Death Of Retail


Summary
Sears and Macy's just announced more store closings nationwide in the wake of disastrous holiday sales figures.
So, I stopped at a Wal-Mart the other day on my way to Napa Valley to find out why.

I was not surprised when the company announced it was closing 267 stores worldwide.

Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD) and Macy's (NYSE:M) just announced more store closings nationwide in the wake of disastrous holiday sales figures.

So, I stopped at a Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) the other day on my way to Napa Valley to find out why. After I found the flowers, I browsed around the store to see what else they had for sale. The clothing offered was out of style and made of cheap material. The store might as well have been the Chinese embassy. Most concerning, there was almost no one there.

So, I was not surprised when the company announced it was closing 267 stores worldwide. The closures amount to only 1% of Wal-Mart's total floor space. Some 10,000 American jobs will be lost.

The Wal-Mart downsizing is only the latest evidence of a major change in the global economy that has been evolving over the last two decades. However, it now appears we have reached a tipping point, as well as a point of no return. The future is happening faster than anyone thought possible. Call it the Death of Retail.

In the meantime, Amazon soared by 181% this year, and was one of the top-performing stocks of 2016.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4037226-continuing-death-retail?ifp=0
====================================
So, a few observations -
1) Economic Performance is "configured", to present what TPTB want the Population to think.
2) TECHNOLOGY IS A 2 EDGED SWORD. 
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1495 - Jan 21st, 2017 at 1:53pm
 
Trump Deficits Will Be Huge


Summary
Deficits are projected to explode.

Gold trends with deficits.
And so does the dollar.

There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess.
But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine.

In the past half-century, Republican presidents have been the going-away winners at the deficit derby, a fact that should make any true conservative blush. The sad truth is that annual deficits exploded under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, and generally contracted under Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Some of the explanation is just luck of the draw, some walked into office in the midst of recessions they didn't create.

Democrats want to raise spending and taxes. Republicans want to cut spending and taxes. But whereas Democrats have generally succeeded on both of their missions, Republicans have just succeeded in one. (Actual spending cuts require politically difficult choices that are much harder to vote for than perennially popular tax cuts).

Like prior Republicans, Trump has promised to cut taxes, on both corporations and individual taxpayers… even the wealthy. But unlike prior Republicans, he has not paid a word of lip service to spending cuts. He has promised to spend now, and spend big. Trump just doesn't do the austerity thing. It's for losers.

In addition to fronting the cost of building the 2,000 mile Wall (accounts receivable has a reliable address in Mexico), Trump plans big increases in military spending, both on active military and on our veterans. His reboot of Obamacare has yet to be presented, but as he has promised that no one will lose coverage, not even those with pre-existing conditions, we can be sure that Trumpcare won't be cheap. But his big project will likely be his promised $1 trillion plus infrastructure spending plan. Most importantly, he diverges from most Republicans by promising no structural changes in Social Security and Medicare, the entitlement leviathans that are the sources of the vast majority of Federal red ink.

Even if none of Trump's taxing and spending plans come to fruition, the United States would still be on the threshold of a sobering era of debt expansion. The age of trillion dollar plus annual deficits began in 2009 when the financial crisis tripled a very large $458 billion deficit in 2008 into a record-smashing $1.4 trillion in 2009.Three more trillion-dollar deficits followed. But since 2009, excluding a small increase from 2010 to 2011, the deficits have declined steadily. By 2015, they had decreased to $438 billion, slightly below where they were before the crisis began.

Over the past century we have seen a recession, on average, every 60 months (based on data from National Bureau of Economic Research and Bureau of Labor Statistics). According to current figures, the economy has been in expansion for 92 consecutive months. This means that the current expansion is already 50% longer than average.

The Great Recession caused the deficit to triple.  The next recession I expect to work similar magic. But, in addition to being blind to recessions, the CBO was also blind to Donald Trump.

As mentioned previously, Trump has virtually promised to do both in the first year of his presidency. If he is successful, we could return to trillion-dollar deficits much sooner than the CBO thinks. A recession could push the red ink well into record territory.


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Re: For the Record
Reply #1496 - Jan 21st, 2017 at 2:01pm
 
Trump Deficits Will Be Huge (Cont)


Of course, who on Wall Street has picked up on these macro trends? In fact, one of the biggest issues currently being discussed is how the U.S. economy will deal with a perennially strengthening dollar. They are assuming that the Federal Reserve will be raising rates and that the economy will be expanding under the Trump stimulus thereby strengthening the dollar and attracting flows from abroad. This type of "trees grow to the sky" thinking is similar to Clinton-era assumptions that the national debt would be repaid by perpetual budget surpluses, or the feeling earlier in this century that real estate prices could never decline.

To make these assumptions, Wall Street must ignore the obvious ramifications of big deficits, in particular the need for the Federal Reserve to step up and buy all the new debt that the Trump administration will have to issue.

The last time the government had to find buyers for more than a trillion dollars per year of debt, it relied on foreign central banks. Eight years ago, the vast majority of Treasury debt was purchased by China and Japan (and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other emerging nations in Asia and Latin America). But as the debt surge persisted, the real heavy hitter became the Federal Reserve itself which, through its Quantitative Easing (QE) Program, bought more than half a trillion dollars of Treasury debt per year from 2009 to 2014.

But there can be little expectation that the foreign buyers will be returning for a repeat performance. Currently, both China and Japan are looking to draw down foreign exchange and are engaged in active selling of U.S. Treasuries in order to keep their currencies from declining against the dollar (Scott Lanman, 10/18/16, Bloomberg). What's more, Donald Trump is likely to engage in aggressive trade wars that may certainly discourage other foreign central banks from supporting our debt issuance.

Also, bond analysts are now convinced that the 35-year plus bond bull market, which began in 1980, finally topped out in July of 2016, when European and Japanese yields sank deeply into negative territory and yields on the 10-year Treasury hit 1.36% (Peter Boockvar, 9/19/16, CNBC). Since then bond prices are down significantly across the board. If this trend continues, it will discourage private buyers from making the jump into Treasuries. In other words, the Fed may be the only game in town when it comes to financing future deficits in a new bond bear market.

This would mean that the QE programs that many had assumed to be a thing of the past can return with a vengeance, becoming the signature program of the Trump era. When this reality sinks in, you may witness the dollar begin a long and steady decline from its current decades-high strength. At the same time, gold, gold stocks, commodities and foreign stocks could finally enter a turnaround.

Ultimately, I expect years of dollar decline to culminate in a crisis, with the dollar plunging in value, as the world abandons it as its primary reserve currency. The last time the dollar was on the brink of collapse it was saved by the financial crisis of 2008. Next time we will not be so lucky!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4037879-trump-deficits-will-huge?ifp=0
=================================
So, "will Trump & his supposed Policies", be the "Black  Swan Event" that may finally tip the Global Economy?
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1497 - Jan 27th, 2017 at 3:01pm
 
Can The Global Economy Grow During Depopulation?


The world's population of under 40 year olds (excluding Africa) has essentially peaked.
What is interesting about the under 40 year old population is that they are responsible for about 97% of all pregnancies / births. It's not impossible for 40+ year old women to have children, just statistically very rare (particularly outside the developed world).

Ok, we've established the global under 40 population (excluding Africa) has essentially peaked. Now we lay out the chart below that a shrinking population (above) isn't replacing themselves.
The world (ex-Africa) has fallen below the 2.1 births per female replacement level...and even Africa is rapidly slowing.

All the interest rate cuts and debt has been undertaken under the paradigm that it would be more easily repaid in the future...but now we've come to "the future" where there are fewer of us to service the debt, buy homes, buy cars, consume our way to prosperity...or pay the taxes to keep the social systems solvent.
Basically, we are doing our best Wile E. Coyote impression - we've gone over the cliff but somehow haven't realized it quite yet
.


Absent a growing population of young to buy their assets (IRAs, homes, etc.), we have a small problem (central bank asset purchases to the rescue). Global economic activity and consumption are likely to fall off a steep, high precipice.

The implications economically, financially, societally, etc. etc. of a collapsing population of young and soaring older population should be ringing alarm bells, but instead our politicians seem officially mindless (or intentionally misleading the populace) in the face of a cataclysmic shift.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/4038624-can-global-economy-grow-depopulation?ifp...
===================================
The thing is, THAT TPTB (the Pollies, Big Business & Unions etc) KNOW OF THESE ISSUES AND HAVE KNOWN FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEY HAVE SAID, NOR DONE NOTHING!!! 


PS - you will have to access the article, to look at the charts, as they are not in a format that can be re-posted here.
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« Last Edit: Jan 27th, 2017 at 3:29pm by perceptions_now »  
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1498 - Feb 3rd, 2017 at 1:54am
 
Quote:
However, the stock market lost 47 percent of its value between September 30, 2007, and December 2, 2008, a decline of about $11 trillion. This has primarily impacted older Americans, whose retirement accounts lost $2.8 trillion, or nearly one-third of their value.  


This is what I hate about superannuation.
The share market rebounded after that catastrophic collapse, however, there were some unfortunate older people who suffered the maturation of their super funds at very low prices.

Not fair at all.
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1499 - Apr 9th, 2017 at 12:02pm
 
Demographics Are Destiny


Today we are living through a profound shift in demography. Developed markets, along with China, are experiencing an unprecedented aging in their respective societies. This shift is impacting multiple dimensions of the global economy. In particular, aging populations are contributing to two of the defining characteristics of the current economic environment: slow growth and low interest rates.

Over the long term, economic growth is driven by two factors: increases in the labor force and productivity. Today, both are decelerating. While the drop in productivity is somewhat of a mystery, slow growth in the labor force is a direct result of demographic changes. Older individuals are less likely to be engaged in the labor force and today there are more of them.

Demographics are also contributing to the low interest rate environment. This is in part a side effect of slow growth, but demographics also affect rates through changes in consumption patterns.

Recent economic and market history has been distinguished by extraordinary events: the Great Recession, the bursting of the housing bubble and record low interest rates. But while these events are unusual, they are not without precedent; there have been other housing bubbles and economic contractions. However, one of the underlying causes of recent economic conditions is truly unique: a rapidly aging population, a result of increased longevity, slowing birth rates and lower childhood mortality.

The graying of the population in developed countries is without precedent in human history. While most developing countries outside of China can look forward to a demographic tailwind for many years, developed countries are rapidly aging.

...

Increasing the rate of labor-force participation is not a panacea. This leaves unresolved the mystery of what happened to global productivity.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4059678-demographics-destiny
============================
As I have said previously, there are a few major issues driving current events -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change
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