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For the Record (Read 173313 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1470 - Jun 25th, 2016 at 2:49pm
 
It is said, "Markets like Certainty"!

Well, I would suggest that the one thing that will be "predictable about Markets for some time",
IS THAT THEY WILL BE UNCERTAIN & UNPREDICTABLE!

The Politicians (of all persuasion), Business (particularly BIG Business), Unions & TPTB,
have for too long tried to manipulate outcomes,
TO GENERATE WHAT IS IN THEIR OWN BEST, SHORT TERM INTERESTS & THOSE OF "THEIR FRIENDS"!

Unfortunately, those outcomes have not "CONCURRED WITH THE BEST, LONG TERM INTERESTS OF THE WHOLE POPULATION"
& it is likely that that a "parting of the ways", is now occurring!

The Brexit may not be the "be all & end all",
BUT IT MAY WELL BE, "THE STRAW THAT BROKE THE CAMELS BACK"???

Time will tell!

In any event, It is said, "you can't fight the FedRes"!
Well, there is also a combination, against which even the FedRes can not win!

That combination being -
1) Demographics - where the Global Population is Aging & where Growth is slowing, just prior to going into actual Decline.
2) Energy - Where Growth in Demand is Slowing, Growth in Supply is also slowing & Pricing is Down, in tune to both Demand & Supply.
3) Climate Change - which is changing & affecting Agriculture & Water Supply, in different ways,in different places.
4) Debt - which is off & racing higher Globally, following the Japanese trend, which started around 1990 & it is the "Canary in this Coal mine".

I said, some time ago, that an event would finally occur, which would not be foreseen by TPTB and the media reporting of a "likely Remain Vote", may well be that final mistake by TPTB, which now brings the above 4 major Economic influencing factors into a sharper & earlier focus.

So, the period ahead, will now reflect a much greater capacity for "things to go wrong"!

Good Luck, to us all, we may well need it!
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« Last Edit: Jun 25th, 2016 at 3:08pm by perceptions_now »  
 
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1471 - Jun 25th, 2016 at 2:55pm
 
Following recent actions, by FD, it seems apparent he is seeking to move this site towards one of "less limitations", like the PA site!

He has recently promoted a move towards "less limitations" on members swearing & today he removed a number of permanent threads, on the Politicians Suck section, which were there to limit some of what I regard as "unwanted actions", by some members!

And, as such & as already indicated previously, I want no part of that, whatsoever!

So it's Sayonara, from me & good luck!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1472 - Jun 29th, 2016 at 3:10pm
 
For purpose of COMPARISON, following are some of the MAJOR WORLD ECONOMIES (+ a few others), listed by their Debt to GDP Ratio (from Highest & Decending) & by the 3 major Credit Ratings agencies, via Trading Economics -
Country; Debt to GDP   ; Credit Rating by - S&P            Moody's            Fitch

Japan        229%                                           A+      Stable      A1      Stable      A      Negative

Greece      177%                                           B-      Stable      Caa3      Stable      CCC      N/A
Italy          133%                                           BBB-      Stable      Baa2      Stable      BBB+      Stable
Singapore   105%                                          AAA      Stable      Aaa      Stable      AAA      Stable

USA           104%                                          AA+      Stable      Aaa      Stable      AAA      Stable

Spain         99%                                            BBB+      Stable      Baa2      Stable      BBB+      Stable
France       96%                                            AA      Negative      Aa2      Stable      AA      Stable

Canada      91%                                            AAA      Stable      Aaa      Stable      AAA      Stable

UK             89%                                           AA      Negative      Aa1      Negative      AA      Negative

Euro Union 85%                                            AA+      Negative

Germany   71%                                            AAA        Stable      Aaa      Stable      AAA      Stable

India         67%                                            BBB-      Stable      Baa3      Positive      BBB-      Stable
Vietnam    51%                                            BB-      Stable      B1      Stable      BB-      Stable
South Africa 50%                                         BBB-      Negative      Baa2      Negative      BBB-      Stable
China        44%                                            AA-      Negative      Aa3      Negative      A+      Stable    
Australia   37%                                            AAA      Stable      Aaa      Stable      AAA      Stable 
South Korea 35%                                          AA-      Stable      Aa2      Stable      AA-      Stable
Norway     32%                                            AAA      Negative      Aaa      Stable      AAA      Stable
Taiwan      32%                                            AA-      Stable      Aa3      Stable      A+      Positive   
New Zealand 30%                                        AA      Stable      Aaa      Stable      AA      Stable
Indonesia  27%                                            BB+      Positive      Baa3      Stable      BBB-      Stable
Russia       18%                                            BB+      Negative      Ba1      Negative      BBB-      Negative

Kuwait      7%                                             AA      Stable      Aa2      Negative      AA      Stable 
Saudi Arabia 2%                                          A-      Stable      A1      Stable      AA-      Negative   
                                    

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/rating

So, can anyone see a "Few" inconsistencies?
I would suggest that the "Credit Rating Agencies" MAY WELL be more a part of the Problem, than the solution!

Oh & btw, it has been "disclosed/suggested" recently that Australia MAY lose its AAA rating, despite having a Debt to GDP ratio, which is quite low compared to many others!
Go Figure???
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1473 - Jun 30th, 2016 at 10:22pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Jun 29th, 2016 at 3:10pm:
So, can anyone see a "Few" inconsistencies?
I would suggest that the "Credit Rating Agencies" MAY WELL be more a part of the Problem, than the solution!



No I can't see any inconsistencies.
Whether you are an individual or a nation your credit rating isn't just a reflection of your debt.
Your credit rating is determined by your ability to pay off that debt. 

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1474 - Jul 1st, 2016 at 4:35pm
 
Stock Market Bottoms End Of 2017


We said in Stock Market Bottoms End of 2017 that we see major birth cycles, plus 50 years, corresponding to major market moves.

We called for a market low at the end of 2017.

When 50-year-olds are growing in the population, earning and spending are strong. When they decline that strong component of the economy is in decline. We are currently in a period of decline.

Conclusion
We'd expect stock market downside and/or a market low at the end of 2017 if demographics end up taking hold. We are in a down-cycle of the all-important 50 year old demographic. They are peak strong earners and spenders. They also haven't exited the job market yet.

When they are in decline, like they are today, that is an economic drag. Those periods of drags and growth have had material impacts on the stock market itself. This leads us to our bearish conclusion.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984737-stock-market-bottoms-end-2017-update?ifp...
===================================
Well, there is sometimes a single factor, which makes everything happen.
But, it is "more usual" that there is a combination of events/factors!
The current combination of factors being -
1) Demographics - where the Global Population is Aging & where Growth is slowing, just prior to going into actual Decline.
In addition to the 50 year olds, there is also the largest Demographic group in history (the Baby Boomers), which must also be considered because of the reduction in their spending, compared to their "Peak Spending Years". Their influence is very significant & it will continue for quite some time!
2) Energy - Where Growth in Demand is Slowing, Growth in Supply is also slowing & Pricing is Down, in tune to both Demand & Supply.
What we now find, is that Demand is Down, Production is Down & Price is Down and that is very likely to continue for some time.
"Coincidently", the current situation is probably "somewhat beneficial", because if Demand Growth had continued to rise, on a trajectory anything like the period of 1960-2000, then the Supply Growth or Lack of it, would have exposed the GLOBAL Economy in a far great way & the Economic CRASH would have been far more pronounced!
3) Climate Change - which is changing & affecting Agriculture & Water Supply, in different ways,in different places.
There are many ramifications of this Climate Change, which is certainly happening, irrespective of whether it is "man made" or part of the 'normal cycle". But, certainly, it will mean a lower Global Population will be "more likely", given the likely Climate impacts on Agriculture, Water & therefore the planets capacity to support the Human Population?
4) Debt - which is off & racing higher Globally, following the Japanese trend, which started around 1990 & it is the "Canary in this Coal mine".
Debt in Europe & the USA is also already a problem & a Growing Problem, which means that many of the "usual Fixes" simply won't Fix things, in the usual way we think they should!
So, irrespective of the current "Brexit issues", the period ahead will be very difficult, very difficult indeed and it will stretch out over quite some time!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1475 - Jul 6th, 2016 at 7:57pm
 
Labor and Coalition have made budget worse since 2002, says former treasury secretary Ken Henry


Former treasury secretary Ken Henry has slammed both Labor and Coalition governments for contributing to the worsening budget situation, and for failing to deal with the immediate challenges facing the nation.

Dr Henry wrote the first Intergenerational Report in 2002 in which he warned the budget would deteriorate significantly, and large deficits would be left to the next generation, unless Australia found ways of boosting jobs and productivity.

"Today, the fiscal challenge is considerably more daunting than that set out in 2002," Dr Henry wrote in The Australian today.

"Our governments since 2002 have only made things worse."

He also authored the 2010 Tax White Paper and 2012 White Paper on Australia's Role in the Asian Century, in which he outlined the challenges facing the nation, including a rapidly ageing population, digital disruption and worsening housing affordability.

Dr Henry said all three documents set out clear policy pathways but Australia's political system had proved "incapable" of dealing with his recommendations.

As treasury secretary he said he spent a lot of time coaching people in the development of policy advice, emphasising the importance of narrative and telling an "absolutely compelling" story.

He takes some responsibility for the failure of his three blueprints, concluding the messages must not have been "sufficiently compelling" but he also said politicians preferred to see the challenges facing the nation as distant.

"Our political leaders, from their vantage point, appear confident that the platform is not on fire but it is, and most Australians know it,"
Dr Henry wrote.

He said voters want a government that does not ignore them and take them for granted, and one that engages them openly and honestly about the challenges and opportunities facing the nation.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/ken-henry-blames-political-parties-for-bud...
===================================
Ken Henry IS WRONG!
They are only Politicians, THEY ARE/HAVE NOT BEEN POLITICAL LEADERS!

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Re: For the Record
Reply #1476 - Jul 13th, 2016 at 1:33pm
 
Lack Of NGDP Growth Is The Real Reason For Italy's Banking Crisis


I think we have moved closer to this "euro spasm" and it is now particularly showing up in the form of worries over the state of the Italian banking sector, which adds to the concerns that the markets already have about the state of Italian public finances.

So while the global financial markets seem to have been recovering from the initial shock from the outcome of the United Kingdom's EU referendum and even though the EU system clearly still is in shock from the 'Brexit' decision, it is clear that the global financial markets seem to have stabilised after a short-lived spasm.

However, for the EU it is far too early to conclude that we are out of the woods. In fact, Brexit might not be the biggest worry for the EU. Instead the next big worry might be Italy.

Italy - 15 years without growth
Italy is without a doubt one of Europe's absolute worst performing economies over the past decade and recently fears over the state of the Italian banking sector has yet again resurfaced and in the direct aftermath of the Brexit crisis Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suggested a major bailout package for the Italian banking sector.

However, such plans would likely be in conflict with EU's new rules that basically means such bailouts should be financed primarily by depositors and creditors rather than by taxpayers so for now it looks like Renzi cannot get an okay from the EU for a new banking rescue package. That, however, doesn't change the fact that the Italian banking sector is in serious trouble and Italian bank shares have more than halved in value this year.

The Italian banking sector's trouble has little to do with the Brexit vote. Rather the main reason the Italian banking sector is under water is the same reason why Italian public finances are a mess - lack of economic growth.

Hence, there essentially hasn't been any recovery in the Italian economy since 2008. In fact, real GDP is today nearly 10% lower than it was at the start of 2008 and even worse - real GDP today is at the same level as 15 years ago! 15 years of no growth - that is the reality of the Italy economy.

And have a look at the nominal GDP growth in Italy:
...

In the decade prior to 2008, Italian NGDP grew more or less at a straight line. However, since 2008 actual nominal GDP level has fallen massively short the pre-crisis trend.

There are numerous reasons for Italy's lack of (both real and nominal) growth. One thing is the fact that Italy is in a currency union - the euro area - in which it should never had become a member. Italy's deep crisis warrants massive monetary easing - in other words Italy needs a much weaker 'lira', but Italy no longer has the lira and as a consequence monetary conditions remains too tight for Italy.

Furthermore, Italy is marred by serious structural problems - for example rigid labour market regulation and negative demographics. As a consequence, the growth outlook remains quite bleak.

And even though growth has picked up slightly over the past year, it is hardly impressive and latest round of market turmoil has likely further dented Italian growth and Italy could easily fall into recession again in the coming quarters if the banking trouble escalates.

With no growth it is hard to see both private and public debt levels coming down in any substantial way, and as a consequence, we are very likely to soon again see renewed worries about both the Italian banking sector and Italian public finances. As consequence the EU's next headache might very well be Italy.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3987360-lack-ngdp-growth-real-reason-italys-bank...
==================================
The fact is, "NO MATTER WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE MEDIA, NOR WHAT POLITICIANS DON'T SAY", there are many of the "Larger Global Economies, who have Economic Negatives, including Demographics, But also Energy, Climate & Debt issues!
But, the above hasn't been addressed by Politicians, nor TPTB, as they almost exclusively "live for today & what is in their best interests today".
However, for US (THE WHOLE POPULATION) & OUR BEST, LONG TERM INTERESTS, they (the Pollies & TPTB) have no interest.
But, WE will be the "most affected", when countries such as Japan, Italy, China & many others, finally go over the edge, due to the continuation of the following major Economic issues -
1) Demographics - Slowing Growth, which must continue, due to Energy & Climate issues.
2) Energy - Supply & Demand issues
3) Climate Change - Causing Agricultural Water problems
4) Debt - Ever rising
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1477 - Jul 17th, 2016 at 11:33am
 
Here's some good news (which feels a bit out of place on this thread)

Market close: Australian shares climb for seventh session, reaching highest levels in almost a year

The ASX 200 rose for the seventh consecutive session and jumped 3.8 per cent for the week, its biggest weekly gain in three months.

Gains were broad based and came off the back of strong leads in US markets overnight, thanks to positive corporate results, while improvement in commodity prices also buoyed optimism.

Meanwhile, investors were also hopeful as China's economy defied expectations of a slowdown, with GDP growth for the June quarter holding steady at 6.7 per cent.

"It is good news on all fronts," wrote Savanth Sebastian, economist at CommSec.

In commodities trade, gold lost ground to $US1,333

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-15/australian-shares-climb-for-seventh-sessio...

So the Brexit vote hasn't had the bad effect that many people feared and the lower gold price is actually a good thing because it shows that people are less worried.
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1478 - Jul 18th, 2016 at 12:52pm
 
Is Japan becoming extinct?


After years of paying limited attention to academic and media warnings about the declining birthrate, aging population and complaints from the rest of the country about the overconcentration of people and resources in Tokyo, political and corporate leaders in Japan were jolted by the conclusions of a 2014 book by Hiroya Masuda, a former Iwate prefectural governor and head of a government committee on local revitalization.

“Local Extinctions,” Masuda’s detailed report of population changes, used the latest official figures from the government’s National Institution of Population and Social Security Research to show that 896 cities, towns and villages throughout Japan were facing extinction by 2040.

In 2014, the population of Japan was just under 127 million. By 2040, it’s expected to drop to about 107 million and, by 2050, it will be around 97 million. In the Tohoku region, the total population is predicted to drop from 9.33 million today to 6.86 million by 2040, and then to just over 5 million by 2060.

“It’s clear Masuda’s detailed warning that many towns and villages could go extinct due to the decreased number of women of child-bearing age has reverberated and changed the perception of the problem in the political world, and made leaders realize what was happening as Tokyo sucked up young people from other parts of Japan, creating a country that is overly concentrated in one area,” Kyoto Gov. Keiji Yamada said at a meeting of Kansai area business leaders in February.

So what do the above figures likely mean for the future, especially without drastic, effective policy measures at the local and national level to address population decline and aging localities?

More abandoned homes:
In a 2013 survey by the internal affairs ministry, it was discovered that 8.2 million of the more than 60 million homes nationwide were empty.The ministry estimated almost 40 percent of 8.2 million empty homes were not being offered for sale or rent.

Aging infrastructure and fewer people to fix it:
The land and transport ministry also has cause for concern. Much of the country’s civil engineering infrastructure is aging at a time when there are fewer construction workers nationwide, but especially outside the major cities.

The total number of construction workers shrank by 27 percent between 1997 and 2011, according to the ministry. Projections indicate that by 2030, 38 percent of remaining workers will be over 65 years old, 39 percent will be between the ages of 45 and 49, and that only 3 percent of construction workers will be between 25 and 30 years old. The number of workers under 25 is so negligible as to amount to almost zero. This decline in available workers comes just as the country’s roads, bridges, canals, ports and sewage systems are getting on in years.

Ultimately, fewer candidates is a sign of fewer voters, and an aging and declining population. In the coming years, increased voter district mergers and smaller local assemblies are inevitable, raising questions about what will happen to not only local democracy and autonomy, as well as the local tax base, but also to the very structure — and existence — of Japan itself.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/05/16/national/social-issues/japan-becomin...
=====================================
Considerations -
1) Japan is already over a quarter of a century into an Economic slowdown & mounting Debt, which is "Far from the usual Economic cycle".
2) Japan is "Far from alone", as there are many other nations, where the Population Growth is slowing dramatically & about to go into actual Decline.
3) The usual "Old Fixes", NO LONGER WORK, as we are now bumping against Global Population Limits, which are being restrained by a number of factors, including Energy (Supply & Pricing) & Climate Change Factors, which are affecting Agriculture & Water Supply.

So, the situation in Japan, not only is not going away, it is set to worsen AND other countries are set to go down a similar line.

Therefore, given the current Global Realities, which are now based on -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) Climate Change

the overriding question is "what will eventually be the hair that will break the back of the Japanese & Global Camel/Economy"!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1479 - Jul 20th, 2016 at 4:30pm
 
Home-owning dream slipping away as over-65s cash in on property market: survey


The chances of owning a home are slipping away for many Australians, as soon fewer than half of adults will own their own home, says one of the nation's largest household surveys.

The survey also said couples over 65 were Australia's wealthiest.

For 15 years the same 17,000 Australians have been answering questions about their income, savings, family life and health.

Professor Roger Wilkins, the report's author and an economist at the University of Melbourne, said they had been building up a "very comprehensive picture of how people's lives evolve over time".

He said a stand-out finding this year was that home ownership was going backwards.

"We're very soon going to have less than 50 per cent of adults who are home owners on current trends."

Older homeowners reaping the rewards
Professor Wilkins said couples over the age of 65 who had invested in the property market were now reaping the rewards, and were considered the richest Australians.

"House price growth has been very strong," he said.

"In real terms house prices have gone up over 90 per cent for the period since 2001.

"Older households are much more likely to be home owners and also to own investment properties as well.

"Wealth has grown very strongly for older Australians, particularly those aged 65 and over.

"Since 2002 their average levels of wealth have grown in real terms by over 60 per cent."


www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-20/chances-of-owning-a-home-slipping-away-report-finds/7643542
=====================================
Whilst Home ownership is most likely much greater for older Australians AND much less for younger Australians, history will show that post the GFC most older Australians have NOT gone all that well on other financial issues, with Share pries still Down some 20% on their 2007 Peak.

AND, other investment returns (such as Bank interest) having shrunk substantially, with the "official RBA Cash Rate going down from just over 7% in 2008, to currently be 1.75%!

The upshot being that younger Australians will not get anywhere near the same return on their investment, as did older Australians during the Peak Economic years, but nor will anyone from this point on, as OZ & other countries are now set to follow the Japanese trend!



...
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1480 - Jul 23rd, 2016 at 3:16pm
 
Perth rents plummet according to Corelogic data


PERTH rents plummeted 8.6 per cent over the past year, contributing to the largest annual decline on record for the nation, new Corelogic data shows.

The June rental report showed weekly rents for the capital cities fell 0.6 per cent on last year – the greatest drop since records started in 1996 – on the back of slowing population growth, high levels of new housing construction and soft wages growth.

Nationally, Darwin recorded the largest slump in rents of 16.2 per cent, while Brisbane and Adelaide figures fell slightly.

There were small rent rises in Sydney (albeit its weakest growth on record), Melbourne and Canberra, with Hobart reporting the strongest growth of 4.6 per cent.

Corelogic research analyst Cameron Kusher said the rental market weakness would continue.

“With housing supply, and subsequently rental supply, continuing to rise as growth in wages and the population continues to slow, it is unlikely we will see a turnaround in rental markets in the short-term,”
he said.

“As a result, renters will continue to have more choice and may actually be able to move into superior rental accommodation for similar or even lower costs.

“Lower rents may also act as a disincentive for first-homebuyers to enter into home ownership as they may be able to save more for a future deposit.”

http://www.communitynews.com.au/western-suburbs-weekly/real-estate/perth-rents-p...
====================================
I expect the Perth Darwin trend, to be MORE reflective in other cities, in the short-medium term!
The following article on Property values, may also be worth a read -
http://www.corelogic.com.au/news/property-values-fall-you-bet-it-can-happen
as is the following chart of Property values over the last 20 years, also worth a look!
http://www.corelogic.com.au/contentAsset/raw-data/2cfe19df-abc1-41ee-a8e7-129be7...

I expect that property values in Sydney & Melbourne, will shortly more reflect what is already under way in Perth, Hobart, Darwin & Canberra, plus Brisbane & Adelaide!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1481 - Aug 10th, 2016 at 4:42pm
 
5 Minutes To Understanding Macroeconomics: The Second Fundamental Law Of Capitalism


Summary
The second fundamental law of capitalism explains the impact of growth on the economy.

It was initially viewed as a way to estimate the future growth rate, but the values on the variables can change over time.

If the economy fails to grow, it drives the capital/income ratio higher.

Either the returns on capital become weaker, or capital requires a larger share of the national income.

The concept of macroeconomics is hard for most people. The most valuable books are often written at a high level.

What is the Second Fundamental Law?

I will get rid of all Greek letters. Variables will be named in English.

You need to know these terms:
...

B requires further work. The Capital/Income Ratio is the total wealth of the country divided by the earnings and interest generated by the wealth. This is like EV/EBIT (enterprise value/earnings before interest and taxes) for an entire country. However, houses are included as capital and the equivalent rent cost is included as earnings.

The next formula was created by Roy Harrod and Evsey Domar in the late 1930s.

G = S/B

This formula says that the growth rate of the economy is equal to the savings rate divided by the capital/income ratio. This premise was widely accepted for decades. However, it only applies to long-term planning.

Using the Law

It is easier to watch the math:
...

Solving for G was a Problem

In the 1930s and 1940s, economists were trying to use the formula to solve for G. Initially, they even assumed that B was fixed. Because they thought B was static, they believed that savings was the primary driver of growth. The capital/income ratio (that is B) changes over time.

Imagine if G was 0

It is not impossible for an economy to have no growth. However, dividing by 0 is generally viewed as "impossible". It is only impossible if people refuse to treat "infinity" as an acceptable answer.

Imagine that B = 500 and S = 10. What happens if G is equal to 0?

Year 1

The capital of the country is worth $500. The income is equal to $100.

Year 2

After one year, savings adds $10 to the capital base. Capital is worth $510. Since there is no growth, income still equals $100 the next year. The capital/income ratio is now $510/$100 = 510%.

Year 3

After two years, savings adds another $10 to the capital base. Capital is worth $520 and income remains at $100. The capital/income ratio is now $520/$100 = 520%.

In this zero growth scenario, the value of B increases every year.

Consequences
If there is zero growth in the economy, but the savings rate is positive, B increases. The growth in B requires one of two things to happen. Either capital receives a larger share of the $100 of income, or the return on capital decreases. Remember that income will be split between labor and capital (before taxes). If the share of income going to capital increases, the share going to labor decreases. If we start this scenario with capital earning $30 and labor earning $70, then the return on capital in the first year was 6% ($30/$500). If capital does not consume more of the income in the subsequent years, then in the third year, the return on capital would only be 5.77% ($30/$520). If capital maintains a 6% return, it would require $31.2 in the third year ($520*.06).

This is why so much emphasis is placed on generating economic growth.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3994739-5-minutes-understanding-macroeconomics-s...
==================================
"Imagine if G was 0
It is not impossible for an economy to have no growth."

All very interesting, however there MAY BE a few other factors involved, both "normally" & now!
For example, the "normal" impact of Local & Global Population levels "Growing @ 2-4%", versus the current impact of much flatter Population Growth rates & then mix in the likelihood of the Future Populations actually going into Decline by 2-4% or More!
In short, there is what we are used to, then we have current & future Realities, to bring into the equations, with the above example, being only one & there are others!
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1482 - Aug 21st, 2016 at 4:28pm
 
In Focus: The Italian Banking Crisis


Summary
The European banking system still has more than €1 trillion in non-performing loans. Italy accounts for up to 36% of these loans.

It's no secret that European banks, especially Italian banks, are in big trouble. Non-performing loans (NPL) are by far the biggest issue that these banks have to deal with. At the beginning of 2016, the European Central Bank estimated that the total amount of NPLs in the Eurozone was north of €1 trillion. Italian banks alone are exposed to nearly 36% of these loans with €360 billion in NPLs.

Italy's Macro Problems
How did Italy get to this place? Simply put, not enough people are working and there's not much activity in the economy. Consumers and businesses aren't spending or making enough money to pay back their loans. A closer look shows that Italy has the lowest adult employment rate in Europe, aside from Greece, which makes any hope of these loans being repaid at all, unreasonable.

...

Are Bail-outs an Option?
No, no they are not. As a part of Europe's austerity measures, new ECB rules regulating troubled financial institutions took effect last year.

However, even if the Italian government wanted to step in and secure its financial industry it doesn't have the financial strength to do so. Sovereign debt-to-GDP is at 135% and the economy just hasn't picked up since the financial crisis in 2008.


This makes the situation in Italy all the more precarious. If or when these banks reach a breaking point where they have to be bailed in it is unclear if that would be feasible. The first problem is that most of Italy's bank bonds are held by institutional investors, often other banks, which could cause something of a domino effect with multiple banks needing to be bailed in because of one large institution folding.

What's Going to Happen?
Clearly, none of this is good and Italian banks are stuck between a rock and a hard place. ECB rules mandate that the government can't bail out any bank and bail-in rules could cause a systemic collapse of several of Italy's largest banks or incite unrest in an economically challenged society.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4000567-focus-italian-banking-crisis?ifp=0
===================================
Where it all ends?

We will find out, when it happens?
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1483 - Sep 10th, 2016 at 10:41am
 
DOW Down 2.13% (394 points) overnight -
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?ltr=1

I would suggest an unpleasant day on Monday Globally, including here in OZ!

That said, the DOW Decline is barely rating a Media mention, I wonder why?
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Re: For the Record
Reply #1484 - Nov 6th, 2016 at 11:25am
 
I would suggest, that reactions in the period ahead could be "interesting", arising from the US Presidential Election!?
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