Stock Market Bottoms End Of 2017
We said in Stock Market Bottoms End of 2017 that we see major birth cycles, plus 50 years, corresponding to major market moves.
We called for a market low at the end of 2017.
When 50-year-olds are growing in the population, earning and spending are strong. When they decline that strong component of the economy is in decline. We are currently in a period of decline.
ConclusionWe'd expect stock market downside and/or a market low at the end of 2017 if demographics end up taking hold. We are in a down-cycle of the all-important 50 year old demographic. They are peak strong earners and spenders. They also haven't exited the job market yet.
When they are in decline, like they are today, that is an economic drag. Those periods of drags and growth have had material impacts on the stock market itself. This leads us to our bearish conclusion.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984737-stock-market-bottoms-end-2017-update?ifp...===================================
Well, there is sometimes a single factor, which makes everything happen.
But, it is "more usual" that there is a combination of events/factors!
The current combination of factors being -
1) Demographics - where the Global Population is Aging & where Growth is slowing, just prior to going into actual Decline.
In addition to the 50 year olds, there is also the largest Demographic group in history (the Baby Boomers), which must also be considered because of the reduction in their spending, compared to their "Peak Spending Years". Their influence is very significant & it will continue for quite some time!
2) Energy - Where Growth in Demand is Slowing, Growth in Supply is also slowing & Pricing is Down, in tune to both Demand & Supply.
What we now find, is that Demand is Down, Production is Down & Price is Down and that is very likely to continue for some time.
"Coincidently", the current situation is probably "somewhat beneficial", because if Demand Growth had continued to rise, on a trajectory anything like the period of 1960-2000, then the Supply Growth or Lack of it, would have exposed the GLOBAL Economy in a far great way & the Economic CRASH would have been far more pronounced!
3) Climate Change - which is changing & affecting Agriculture & Water Supply, in different ways,in different places.
There are many ramifications of this Climate Change, which is certainly happening, irrespective of whether it is "man made" or part of the 'normal cycle". But, certainly, it will mean a lower Global Population will be "more likely", given the likely Climate impacts on Agriculture, Water & therefore the planets capacity to support the Human Population?
4) Debt - which is off & racing higher Globally, following the Japanese trend, which started around 1990 & it is the "Canary in this Coal mine".
Debt in Europe & the USA is also already a problem & a Growing Problem, which means that many of the "usual Fixes" simply won't Fix things, in the usual way we think they should!
So, irrespective of the current "Brexit issues", the period ahead will be very difficult, very difficult indeed and it will stretch out over quite some time!