John_Taverner wrote on Jan 20^th, 2016 at 8:24am:


Well, Monday on the OZ market wasn't too bad, perhaps because of the US DOW Futures suggesting a higher DOW & the DOW was actually closed on Monday, for the US Martin Luther King Public holiday.

Futures had been suggesting a sizeable spike (over 200 points, at one stage), but the DOW finished only slightly up, as did the All Ords yesterday.

Btw, Dow Futures are now Down over 200 & the All Ords are currently Down about 60.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 20^th, 2016 at 6:12pm:


Talk about off & racing OR UP/DOWN & All Around!?

Europe closed mostly Down around 3 & 4%, plus a couple around 5%.
The Dow had a wild ride, being Down over 500, then it recovered to be only Down around 133, before closing Down 249 (1.56%) @ 15,767.
Japan is currently UP 241 (1.47%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices
And, the Oil Price dipped Down to a low of $27.65 in the early hours (although channel 7 Sunrise said $26), before rising again to close @ $28.70.
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

My take on the wild "fluctuations", is that there MAY WELL again have been a little outside assistance (RedRes/PPT).

Oh & the All Ords is currently UP around 57 - Go Figure?

Anyone seen Nellie?

It's usually about now, that Nellie starts getting a little nervous?

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 22^nd, 2016 at 1:42pm:


Well, it looks like the Nellie's may have to wait a while, as the Fedres &/or the PPT are in now, having their "best shot".

Collapse Of Shale Gas Production Has Begun

The U.S. Empire is in serious trouble as the collapse of its domestic shale gas production has begun.

All the trillions of Dollars in financial assets mean nothing without oil, natural gas or coal. Energy drives the economy and finance steers it. As I stated several times before, the financial industry is driving us over the cliff.

The Great U.S. Shale Gas Boom Is Likely Over For Good
Total shale gas production from the Barnett, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus peaked at 27.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in July and fell to 26.7 Bcf/d by December 2015:


Basically, the overwhelming majority of the shale gas extracted at the Haynesville was done so at a complete loss.
Chesapeake is one of the larger shale gas producers in the Haynesville as well as in the United States. According to its recent financial reports, Chesapeake received $1.05 billion in operating cash in the first three-quarters of 2015, but spent $3.2 on capital expenditures to continue drilling. Thus, its free cash flow was a negative $2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2015. And this doesn't include what it paid out in dividends.

The reason these companies continue to produce shale gas at a loss is to keep generating revenue and cash flow to service their debt. If they cut back significantly on drilling activity, their production would plummet. This would cause cash flow to drop like a rock, including their stock price, and they would go bankrupt as they couldn't continue servicing their debt.

Basically, the U.S. Shale Gas Industry is nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme.

While the collapse of U.S. shale gas production is one nail in the U.S. Empire Coffin, the other is Shale Oil. U.S. shale oil production peaked before shale gas production:


The notion of U.S. energy independence was built on hype, hope and cow excrement. Instead, we are now going to witness the collapse of U.S. shale oil and gas production.

The collapse of U.S. shale oil and gas production are two nails in the U.S. Empire coffin. Why? Because U.S. will have to rely on growing oil and gas imports in the future as the strength and faith of the Dollar weakens. I see a time when oil exporting countries will no longer take Dollars or U.S. Treasuries for oil. Which means… we are going to have to actually trade something of real value other than paper promises.

I believe U.S. oil production will decline 30-40% from its peak (9.6 million barrels per day July 2015) by 2020 and 60-75% by 2025

. The U.S. Empire is a suburban sprawl economy that needs a lot of oil to keep trains, trucks and cars moving.

A collapse in oil production will also mean a collapse of economic activity.

Thus, a collapse of economic activity means skyrocketing debt defaults, massive bankruptcies and plunging tax revenue. This will be a disaster for the U.S. Empire.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3851316-collapse-shale-gas-production-begun?ifp=...
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This article is especially for Longy/Maria, who  are still "true believers", in Shale Oil/Gas, that there is nothing different happening now, that the good old times will roll again & that it's all just part of "the cycle"!?

And, as usual, Longy/Maris areis wrong, yet again!

Whilst Oil is certainly a very important indicator, the BDI (Bulk Dry Index) is also a very important indicator of Global Demand, including for a range of commodities such as coal, iron ore and grain.

Marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly.

Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food; the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production.
The BDI is termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

Significant BDI levels
On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points.
Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986, though by 4 February 2009 it had recovered a little lost ground, back to 1,316.
During 2009, the index recovered as high as 4661, but then bottomed out at 1043 in February, 2011.
Though rebounding to 2000 on 7 October, by 3 February 2012, the index made a new multi-decade low of 647.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
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As of 3 February 2016, the Baltic Dry Index reached the historic all time low of 303.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

When integrated with other Global factors, suh as Demographics, Energy, Technology, Climate, Debt levels, interest Rates, Stimulus packages & more, they all fit together & strongly suggest that we are again entering (or, in fact, have entered already) a very testing period for the Local & Global Economy, similar to 2007/2008, but quite likely a greater Downturn & for a longer period, having already used up all of the usual/likely Economic fixes!

So, as the Politicians & those Economists representing "vested interests", speak about Economic Growth, YOU WILL KNOW THEY ARE NOT TELLING THE TRUTH!   

What do you think about Credit Suisse and their "Gummy
bear" outlook for the Australian economy?

John_Taverner wrote on Feb 8^th, 2016 at 9:46am:


As a general rule, any "advice" coming via Bank Economists/shills or other paid representatives/shills OR those representing Central Banks or Governments, are all likely to represent the vested interests of the organisation providing the "advice', particularly in the short term.

BUT, THEY USUALLY DO NOT REPRESENT THE BEST, LONG TERM INTERESTS OF THE WHOLE PUBLIC!