freediver
Gold Member
Online
www.ozpolitic.com
Posts: 47466
At my desk.
|
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,23898033-2702,00.html?from=public_rss
Higher petrol prices appear to be behind a slump in the restaurant trade, a sharp halt to retail spending and a collapse in consumer confidence.
But that's basically as far as the bowser blues go. Australians are driving a little less, and this is having a ripple downward effect for many businesses. But consumer spending generally remains strong.
Higher petrol prices may even have indirectly led to a boom in the living-room economy, with a jump in demand for gadgets and household equipment and furnishings.
The Weekend Australian has trawled through the data, and interviewed experts and business chiefs to challenge some of the fuel myths.
The typical family is spending substantially less on petrol today, when unleaded is nudging $1.70 a litre, than it was a decade ago, when pump prices were $1 per litre cheaper.
For every $100 in real household expenditure in 1999, petrol accounted for about $3.70. The share was as high as $4.50 in the early 1990s, in the aftermath of the last recession.
The latest figures crunched by CommSec economist Craig James place the bowser's bite on the household budget at about $2.90.
Incomes have risen faster than petrol prices. Why else would the graph start pointing south from the mid-1990s, when the nation began its longest run of prosperity?
In the short run, though, Australians are driving less.
Consider the upside-down nature of the latest national accounts. They show total consumption rising by 4.3per cent over the year to the March quarter, hardly proof of an economy on the edge.
Break down the data for the six months to the March quarter, when petrol prices began their latest spike, and something fascinating happens. Total consumption rose by 2.3 per cent in real terms. Again, a robust number. But three big items of the household budget went backwards.
Spending on hotels, cafes and restaurants dropped by 0.8 per cent - suggesting a recession occurring in the after-dark economy.
Spending on running a car - on petrol and other costs - also fell by 0.5per cent.
The knee-jerk response to these two minus signs would be to assume that people turned to public transport or took cabs. But spending on transport services slumped by 2 per cent.
The real economy transaction goes something like this: motorists responded to rising prices at the pump by cutting back on the nights out, and on trips to some shops. But they still drove to work in roughly the same numbers.
The money saved at the bowser has been diverted to the living-room economy. The national accounts showed spending on furnishings and household equipment up by 4per cent for the same six-month period, and spending on communication gadgets up 3.4per cent.
This might explain why electronics chain store JB Hi-Fi has just lifted its profit forecasts, defying the general gloom across the economy. JB Hi-Fi chief executive Richard Uechtritz said that as more people stayed home because of rising food and fuel prices, many families were updating television sets and buying faster computers.
This is not to play down the slowing in the economy, but to place petrol prices in perspective.
The cost to families of servicing their mortgages now happens to take about four times as much of their budget as fuel.
For every $100 in disposable income across all households, the mortgage repayment chews up $11, while other consumer debts account for $2.90.
Look at these sums another way - the credit card bill is roughly equal to what people spend at the bowser. The big picture is the mortgage.
Unlike the car, which you can leave in the garage, or park on the street, home interest repayments have to be made each month, otherwise the bank gets edgy.
The retailer with perhaps the closest ear to the real economy is Gerry Harvey, chief executive of the Harvey Norman chain. He is downcast, but yet to call an end to the prosperity party.
"Money is very tight," Mr Harvey told The Weekend Australian.
"Things have not improved. Neither have they become worse. From January to now, things have become a lot tighter.
"But we still have full employment, the resources boom and a high Australian dollar, which have helped retail shops."
Mr Harvey predicted: "Things will remain the same or get worse in the next few months - but this depends on our employment levels."
It is time to stop the whingeing. While record high petrol prices are yielding all sorts of horror headlines, they haven't yet done that much damage to the real economy.
The simplest measure of this is monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank confirmed this week that it is not ready to begin easing official interest rates. In fact, it stands ready to raise them again if wage rises get out of hand.
By sitting on the fence, the Reserve Bank confirmed that the economy hasn't slowed enough for its liking.
|