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Is this a consensus statement? (Read 20525 times)
RecFisher
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Is this a consensus statement?
Dec 14th, 2007 at 11:12am
 
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #1 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 11:53am
 
I wouldn't say so. They are casting the net very wide, but not catching a great deal and generally passing under the radar. It's just an organised minority.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #2 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 12:14pm
 
It looks very much like a consensus to me- It even has verifiable signatories

I wouldn't say so.

Of course you wouldn't- it doesn't fit within your heavily blinkered postion
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #3 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 12:15pm
 
Of course it looks like a consensus statement. That's probably the point of it.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #4 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 12:22pm
 
Seeing as you are typically trying to muddy the waters as to what and which documents are worth acting on, tell me FD- what is the defining criteria of when consensus statement actually is and when it just looks like one?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #5 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 12:31pm
 
I'm not the one trying to muddy the waters here.

The authority of a consensus statement rests on the combined authority of the signatories. If they come from a field of study that doesn't give them much authority on a topic, or if they only represent a small fraction of the field which does not include in their ranks the leaders in the field (or those regarded as representing the field), then it is obviously not a consensus statement.

This particular statement is a rejection of more widely held views and it is framed as such. If they represented a majority they would have said so.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #6 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 12:39pm
 
I'm not the one trying to muddy the waters here.

Yes..you are

Seems like there is a fair few of PhD scientists there that don't meet your standards...Interesting how you totally dismiss them. Your bias clouds your judgement...how surprising  Roll Eyes

Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor, social scientist, retired vice-chancellor and president, University of Canberra, Australia

William J.R. Alexander, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000

Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New Zealand

Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg

Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, Germany

Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, U.K.; Editor, Energy & Environment journal

Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote sensing scientist, U.S.

Reid A. Bryson, PhD, DSc, DEngr, UNE P. Global 500 Laureate; Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research; Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin

Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta

R.M. Carter, PhD, Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia

Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa

Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.

Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand

David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma

Freeman J. Dyson, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J.

Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University

Lance Endersbee, Emeritus Professor, former dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of Monasy University, Australia

Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands

Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University

Christopher Essex, PhD, Professor of Applied Mathematics and Associate Director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario

David Evans, PhD, mathematician, carbon accountant, computer and electrical engineer and head of 'Science Speak,' Australia

William Evans, PhD, editor, American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame

Stewart Franks, PhD, Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia

R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa

Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey

Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany

Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, sc.agr., Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, INTTAS, Paraguay

Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adjunct Professor, Royal Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden

Vincent Gray, PhD, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of 'Climate Change 2001, Wellington, New Zealand

William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project

Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut

Louis Hissink MSc, M.A.I.G., editor, AIG News, and consulting geologist, Perth, Western Australia

Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona

Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA

Andrei Illarionov, PhD, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity; founder and director of the Institute of Economic Analysis

Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD, physicist, Chairman - Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland

Jon Jenkins, PhD, MD, computer modelling - virology, NSW, Australia

Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden

Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia

Joel M. Kauffman, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, University of the Sciences in Philadelphia

David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Zealand

Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former research scientist, Environment Canada; editor, Climate Research (2003-05); editorial board member, Natural Hazards; IPCC expert reviewer 2007

William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia's National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological organization's Co
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #7 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 1:02pm
 
OK IQ, try asking any one of them whether the statement represents any kind of consensus. I think you'll find the answer is 'no'.

BTW, a list of people with PhD's does not in any way contradict my point.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #8 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 4:49pm
 
I'm asking you as you're the one that has rejected it as a consensus statement without a reasonable argument
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #9 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 5:24pm
 
It is not a consensus statement. It does not claim to be a consensus statement. The claim that it is is absurd. I don't know why I even bothered arguing this far.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #10 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 7:09pm
 
I don't know why I even bothered arguing this far.

Because you jump on anything that doesn't support your one eyed view??
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #11 - Dec 14th, 2007 at 7:49pm
 
If you still think it is a consensus statement, all I can suggest is that you get out a dictionary.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #12 - Dec 15th, 2007 at 8:52am
 
Agree with you FD..not a concensus statement.

Great arguement Shocked
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #13 - Dec 18th, 2007 at 7:03pm
 
he, he, he.  hook, line and sinker  Grin Tongue

ok, I'll keep fishing.  So would it be a consensus statement if it began with "We, the undersigned scientists"?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #14 - Dec 18th, 2007 at 8:48pm
 
no
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #15 - Dec 18th, 2007 at 9:15pm
 
According to dictionary.com,

"consensus" = "An opinion or position reached by a group as a whole"

"statement" = "the communication of an idea, position, mood, or the like through something other than words"

Sounds like it qualifies to me, the "group as a whole" being those that signed it.  Whose to say an "organised minority" can't come up with a consensus statement!!!
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #16 - Dec 19th, 2007 at 12:13pm
 
So you define a consensus as a view agreed to by those who agree to it? By that definition, any statement is a consensus statement. Obviously, the 'group as a whole' cannot consist merely of those who agree with the statement, otherwise you destroy any meaning of the word consensus.

To put it really simply:

Consensus: this is what our peers agree on.

'Minority report' (for want of a better term): We think our peers are wrong.

Which term do you think applies best to the linked statement?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #17 - Dec 19th, 2007 at 9:51pm
 
So the number of people who didn't sign it is important?

The world is flat, or so the consensus once was.  I'll leave it at that.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #18 - Dec 20th, 2007 at 7:06am
 
So you agree it isn't a consensus statement?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #19 - Dec 20th, 2007 at 7:26am
 
For it to be a consensus statement all that needs to happen is that all the parties involved agreed (or disagreed).  It appears they did.  It is a consensus statement by any rational definition.

I think you, freediver, are superimposing your view on it and making the claim it can't be consensus according to your subjective belief.  Once you remove yourself from the group (because your opinion wasn't sought) you will agree that all those who took part did agree.  Ergo a consensus was reached.

RecFisher is right.

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Consensus is looking shaky
Reply #20 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 5:37pm
 
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport

U.S. Senate Report: Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims in 2007

Senate Report Debunks "Consensus"

Report Released on December 20, 2007

INTRODUCTION:      

Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called "consensus" on man-made global warming. These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore. 

The new report issued by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee's office of the GOP Ranking Member details the views of the scientists, the overwhelming majority of whom spoke out in 2007.

Even some in the establishment media now appear to be taking notice of the growing number of skeptical scientists. In October, the Washington Post Staff Writer Juliet Eilperin conceded the obvious, writing that climate skeptics "appear to be expanding rather than shrinking." Many scientists from around the world have dubbed 2007 as the year man-made global warming fears "bite the dust." (LINK)  In addition, many scientists who are also progressive environmentalists believe climate fear promotion has "co-opted" the green movement. (LINK)

This blockbuster Senate report lists the scientists by name, country of residence, and academic/institutional affiliation.  It also features their own words, biographies, and weblinks to their peer reviewed studies and original source materials as gathered from public statements, various news outlets, and websites in 2007. This new "consensus busters" report is poised to redefine the debate.

Many of the scientists featured in this report consistently stated that numerous colleagues shared their views, but they will not speak out publicly for fear of retribution. Atmospheric scientist Dr. Nathan Paldor, Professor of Dynamical Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, author of almost 70 peer-reviewed studies, explains how many of his fellow scientists have been intimidated.

"Many of my colleagues with whom I spoke share these views and report on their inability to publish their skepticism in the scientific or public media," Paldor wrote.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #21 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 5:43pm
 
Strawman. What they are criticising is not the purported consensus.

These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.

I take issue with some of the things Al Gore says. If I looked into the IPCC stuff long enough I would probably also find something to take issue with. It is a lengthy report.

How many of these 400 scientists think humans are not contributing to climate change?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #22 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 5:53pm
 
Senate Report Debunks "Consensus"

Seems pretty clear to me

How many of these 400 scientists think humans are not contributing to climate change?

The question is, to what degree and can anything logical be done about it
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #23 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:05pm
 
Seems pretty clear to me

About as clear as whether the opening post linked to a consensus statement, apparently.

The question is, to what degree and can anything logical be done about it

Easy: green tax shift.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #24 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:13pm
 
The 'to what degree' question needs to be answered first.

Easy: green tax shift.

Whether this is logical is debateable

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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #25 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:25pm
 
The 'to what degree' question needs to be answered first.

In the short term, we can easily stop the growth in CO2 emissions and start to cut them back. There is no need to plan the next 100 years of response, only the next 10 or so.

Whether this is logical is debateable

Go ahead:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1168051896/51#51

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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #26 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:31pm
 
You haven't answered the 'to what degree' question yet...not to mention whether any action we take will make any difference short or long term.

Your 'Green Tax Shift' may or may not be a logical response
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #27 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:33pm
 
Yes I have answered the question.

Unless you concede that humans are responsible for global warming there is not much point going into detail about how far we should go in responding and what effect it will have.

Your 'Green Tax Shift' may or may not be a logical response

Are you trying to say you don't know whether it is a logical response?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #28 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:40pm
 
Unless you concede that humans are responsible for global warming there is not much point going into detail about how far we should go in responding and what effect it will have.


Unless you concede that you don't know if humans are responsible and to what degree they are responsible then you must also concede that response of a 'green tax shift' might not be logical.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #29 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:48pm
 
Certainty is not a rational precondition for action.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/green-tax-shift/climate-change-for-the-sceptics.html
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #30 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:48pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:33pm:
Yes I have answered the question.

Unless you concede that humans are responsible for global warming there is not much point going into detail about how far we should go in responding and what effect it will have.

Your 'Green Tax Shift' may or may not be a logical response

Are you trying to say you don't know whether it is a logical response?


You have said yourself there is no verifiable proof humans have had anything to do with global warming.  You know it is unprovable.  How can anyone concede that which can never be known?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #31 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:56pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:48pm:
Certainty is not a rational precondition for action.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/green-tax-shift/climate-change-for-the-sceptics.html


The degree of uncertainty is a rational precondition for deciding what action should be taken
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #32 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:58pm
 
Right - once you concede that we are probably responsible. As far as I know the IPCC acknowledges the degree of uncertainty.

Also, whatever degree of mitigation you decide to take, a green tax shift is the best way to achieve it, unless you want to ban GHG emissions completely, or close to it.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #33 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 7:02pm
 
Right - once you concede that we are probably responsible.

The jury is still out. I'd prefer to wait for its return before sentencing.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #34 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 7:19pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:58pm:
Right - once you concede that we are probably responsible. As far as I know the IPCC acknowledges the degree of uncertainty.

Also, whatever degree of mitigation you decide to take, a green tax shift is the best way to achieve it, unless you want to ban GHG emissions completely, or close to it.


Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #35 - Dec 21st, 2007 at 10:53pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 20th, 2007 at 7:06am:
So you agree it isn't a consensus statement?


No, I believe it is.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #36 - Dec 22nd, 2007 at 6:37am
 
Just because the people who agree with it, agree with it?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #37 - Dec 22nd, 2007 at 6:56pm
 
deepthought wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 7:19pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:58pm:
Right - once you concede that we are probably responsible. As far as I know the IPCC acknowledges the degree of uncertainty.

Also, whatever degree of mitigation you decide to take, a green tax shift is the best way to achieve it, unless you want to ban GHG emissions completely, or close to it.


Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?


Bump for freediver.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #38 - Dec 24th, 2007 at 8:38am
 
deepthought wrote on Dec 22nd, 2007 at 6:56pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 7:19pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:58pm:
Right - once you concede that we are probably responsible. As far as I know the IPCC acknowledges the degree of uncertainty.

Also, whatever degree of mitigation you decide to take, a green tax shift is the best way to achieve it, unless you want to ban GHG emissions completely, or close to it.


Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?


Bump for freediver.


Bump for a visually challenged freediver
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #39 - Dec 24th, 2007 at 2:28pm
 
deepthought wrote on Dec 24th, 2007 at 8:38am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 22nd, 2007 at 6:56pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 7:19pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 21st, 2007 at 6:58pm:
Right - once you concede that we are probably responsible. As far as I know the IPCC acknowledges the degree of uncertainty.

Also, whatever degree of mitigation you decide to take, a green tax shift is the best way to achieve it, unless you want to ban GHG emissions completely, or close to it.


Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?


Bump for freediver.


Bump for a visually challenged freediver


Bumpity bump bump bump.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #40 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:15pm
 
[Jaws theme]Bump... bump    bump...bump   bumpbump bumpbump bumpbump [/jaws theme]
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #41 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:17pm
 
I am beginning to think freediver may have been eaten by a shark - it has taken him a bloody long time to answer a simple question.  Could he be dragging a bloodied stump up the beach somewhere?

Some months ago (it seems that way anyway) he asked someone to confirm if they conceded humans are responsible for global warming yet is oddly reticent about confirming it himself.  How peculiar is his tardiness in answering a civil question.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #42 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:22pm
 
It's either one of two things- convenience or ignorance? Perhaps FD can answer if his non answer is for his convenience or his ignorance?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #43 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:23pm
 
Yeah, it's something like that.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #44 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:31pm
 
Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?

A simple yes or no will do it
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #45 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:31pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:23pm:
Yeah, it's something like that.


So, on your own forum you don't have the good grace to answer a question if it is inconvenient (read, will reveal your own ambivalence) or because you are simply ignorant?

How can you expect good grace of others if you will not offer it to fellow forumites old mate?  What is so hard about being civil?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #46 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:33pm
 
IQSRLOW wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:31pm:
Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?

A simple yes or no will do it


I'm curious why you use the word 'concede' IQ.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #47 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:35pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:33pm:
IQSRLOW wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:31pm:
Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?

A simple yes or no will do it


I'm curious why you use the word 'concede' IQ.


Because you did?

Quote:
Unless you concede that humans are responsible for global warming there is not much point going into detail about how far we should go in responding and what effect it will have.

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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #48 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:43pm
 
Uh oh...could be another couple of weeks before we can a simple answer.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #49 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:45pm
 
It's a silly question IQ. You are asking me whether I concede a point I have been arguing for all along.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #50 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:50pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:45pm:
It's a silly question IQ. You are asking me whether I concede a point I have been arguing for all along.


So you do concede that humans are responsible for global warming?

I have not seen you say that outright is all.  You slither about it using words like 'probably', maybe' etc.  Why can't you answer simple questions with some civility?


Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?

I don't believe they are responsible at all for global warming.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #51 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:51pm
 
A point you may have been arguing, but one you have refused to answer directly
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #52 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:53pm
 
I believe it is highly likely that global warming is real and that humans are primarily reponsible.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #53 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:57pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:53pm:
I believe it is highly likely that global warming is real and that humans are primarily reponsible.


Just as I said.

deepthought wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:50pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 8:45pm:
It's a silly question IQ. You are asking me whether I concede a point I have been arguing for all along.
You slither about it using words like 'probably', maybe' etc.  Why can't you answer simple questions with some civility?



But anyway as you believe that it is highly likely, can you explain what caused global warming before humans were primarily reponsible?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #54 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 9:16pm
 
But anyway as you believe that it is highly likely, can you explain what caused global warming before humans were primarily reponsible?

Bump  Grin
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #55 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 9:52pm
 
Do you concede that humans are responsible for global warming?

Just to add...Officially FD's answer to this question would be NO!
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #56 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 9:52pm
 
IQSRLOW wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 9:16pm:
But anyway as you believe that it is highly likely, can you explain what caused global warming before humans were primarily reponsible?

Bump  Grin


DT, he said:

Quote:
I believe it is highly likely that global warming is real and that humans are primarily responsible.


Are you, DT, asserting that 'global warming' is occurring and that it was happening in a human less environment?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #57 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 10:02pm
 
Are you, DT, asserting that 'global warming' is occurring and that it was happening in a human less environment?

This could go round all day  Roll Eyes

Are you Nazi, asserting that the global climate is static?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #58 - Dec 25th, 2007 at 11:48pm
 
Aussie wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 9:52pm:
IQSRLOW wrote on Dec 25th, 2007 at 9:16pm:
But anyway as you believe that it is highly likely, can you explain what caused global warming before humans were primarily reponsible?

Bump  Grin


DT, he said:

Quote:
I believe it is highly likely that global warming is real and that humans are primarily responsible.


Are you, DT, asserting that 'global warming' is occurring and that it was happening in a human less environment?


I don't need to assert it - it is a fact.  Everyone knows about it (apart from you apparently though as the other thread about Little Kevvy attests you seem to have been in a coma for a while) - here check it out for yourself.  This rather nice graph shows the regularly occurring global warming and cooling cycles over the last (nearly) half a million years.  It has been warmer than today in fact.  And I have a fair idea that humans weren't generating a lot of electricity or roaring about in gas guzzling Ford Territories much before a hundred years ago.

...

Now I'm waiting for freediver to explain just why this period of global warming is different to all the others as humans are primarily responsible for this one according to him.  What happened before to cause it?  Could it all just be perfectly natural?  I'm inclined to believe so - as history is my guide.

freediver?  Your answer if you will.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #59 - Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am
 
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #60 - Dec 26th, 2007 at 6:19pm
 
This is a far too much of a stretch to be spending billion of dollars on for a solution that maybe non-existent

Far better to spend those trillions of dollars on proper solutions if need be.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #61 - Dec 26th, 2007 at 6:22pm
 
You don't have to spend billions. For starters, you just need to change your taxation base.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #62 - Dec 26th, 2007 at 9:12pm
 
For starters, you just need to change your taxation base.

An expense in itself and for what gain?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #63 - Dec 26th, 2007 at 9:36pm
 
Reduced GHG emissions.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #64 - Dec 26th, 2007 at 10:00pm
 
Which will achieve what when you consider global output?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #65 - Dec 28th, 2007 at 11:46am
 
a reduction in the rate of global warming
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #66 - Dec 28th, 2007 at 12:19pm
 
How much reduction?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #67 - Dec 28th, 2007 at 12:32pm
 
It depends on how much you reduce GHG emissions. The IPCC reports go through a number of potential scenarios.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #68 - Dec 28th, 2007 at 9:48pm
 
Say 100% reduction...what will that achieve for global warming?

Does the IPCC talk about a tax shift and the outcomes that are involved and the differences or are you just talking out your ars*e?

We all know the benefits of a trading system are negligible within the next 100+ years at a minimum...

[Kevin Rudd questionnaire to himself] does your magical tax-shift improve this to any extent? Not really[/Kevin Rudd questionnaire]
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #69 - Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:09am
 
Say 100% reduction...what will that achieve for global warming?

I think it will keep the temperature increase under 2 degrees - probably a lot less. The temperature would return to 'normal' in about 100 years. But I can't remember all the details. You really should check out the IPCC reports.

Does the IPCC talk about a tax shift and the outcomes that are involved and the differences or are you just talking out your ars*e?

The IPCC reports are based on the science - how much the globe warms as a function of how much GHG we emit. The tax shift is an economic thing. That is how to minimise the economic impact of a given reduction in GHG emissions. I am not making it up. The majority of economists support the idea and it is reasonably easy to show how it is better.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1168051896/45#46

We all know the benefits of a trading system are negligible within the next 100+ years at a minimum...

How much benefit they are depends entirely on what the emissions reduction 'schedule' is set at. While they have a facade of a market based system, they still require a political process every time you want to reduce emissions further. A tax shift has a number of benefits over a trading scheme:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/green-tax-shift/green-tax-shift.html#taxes-vs-trading
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #70 - Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am
 
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #71 - Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am
 
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #72 - Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm
 
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #73 - Jan 2nd, 2008 at 7:38pm
 
deepthought wrote on Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump


Bumpity Bump Bump, Bump Bump.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #74 - Jan 2nd, 2008 at 8:52pm
 
Google must be down...
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #75 - Jan 2nd, 2008 at 8:58pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 22nd, 2007 at 6:37am:
Just because the people who agree with it, agree with it?


No, because I agree with it.  But also has the same essential features of your favourite consensus statement on marine protected areas, namely, it's a statement of opinion signed by a reasonable number of people who all appear to agree with the statement.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #76 - Jan 2nd, 2008 at 9:25pm
 
There are some big differences. The scientists who signed it claim it was a consensus statement and claim that it represents the views of the broader community and is based on the research and conclusions of their peers. The statement you provided is very different. It clearly implies that it is a minority view. If you asked any of the signatories, they would also tell you it is not a consensus statement. The 'essential features' you refer to omit the only truly essential feature - the consensus.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #77 - Jan 2nd, 2008 at 11:10pm
 
I think you have too narrow a definition of a "consensus statement".  I didn't ask if it was a "scientific consensus statement".
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #78 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 12:27pm
 
I'm not saying there has to be anything scientific about it. You could come up with a consensus among left handed baptist ministers and I would concede it is a consensus statement. The difference is that the group has to be defined by something else other than the fact that they agree with each other. It's the definition of consensus that is tripping you up.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #79 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 2:35pm
 
What's your definition of "consensus" then?

According to dictionary.com, "consensus" = "An opinion or position reached by a group as a whole".  Can we agree to that?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #80 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 2:37pm
 
As I pointed out earlier, if you accept as a consensus any statement agreed upon by those who agree with it, you destroy any meaning of the term. By that definition, all statements that more than one person agrees with are consensus statements. Obviously, you need an unrelated way to define the group to get any meaning. The 'group as a whole' in your definition cannot be defined by the subset of a group that agrees with the statement.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #81 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 5:43pm
 
So how do you define the group then?  How many peopole have to sign it?  Out of how big a group?  Is there a threshold percentage before it's good enough to be a "consensus"?

The warmaholics fall back on the "thousands of scientists agree" mantra but that's actually a lie! For the first time the IPCC released the reviewers reports of the IPCC Report and guess what? The crucial Chapter 9 was supported by a lowly 32 scientists! (30 other reviewing scientists views were disregarded). So there is it for all the world to read: the sum total of scientists supporting the Anthropogenic Theory of Global Warming is 32! Monty Python would be proud  Cheesy

Now is that a consensus of 32?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #82 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 7:40pm
 
So how do you define the group then?  How many peopole have to sign it?  Out of how big a group?

The group definition can be totally arbitrary - like left handed baptist ministers. Just so long as it is not defined by those who agree with the statement. I'm not sure why you are having so much trouble understanding what the term consensus really means.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #83 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:21pm
 
I know what I understand it to mean.  I'm trying to understand what you believe it means, but you keep going around in circles dodging the issue, not really answering the questions.  I'm not sure why.  
I give up
.





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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #84 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:30pm
 
So you still think it's a consensus statement? Do you think that any statement representing the views of those who agree with it is a consensus statement?
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #85 - Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:31pm
 
deepthought wrote on Jan 2nd, 2008 at 7:38pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump


Bumpity Bump Bump, Bump Bump.


Bump Bump Bumpity craptacular nutsmackingly Bump.
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #86 - Jan 5th, 2008 at 7:18am
 
deepthought wrote on Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:31pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 2nd, 2008 at 7:38pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump


Bumpity Bump Bump, Bump Bump.


Bump Bump Bumpity craptacular nutsmackingly Bump.


Bumpity Bumtpity Bpumtitty Pumbitty Pump Bum.
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oceanz
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #87 - Jan 5th, 2008 at 8:27am
 
deepthought wrote on Jan 5th, 2008 at 7:18am:
deepthought wrote on Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:31pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 2nd, 2008 at 7:38pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump


Bumpity Bump Bump, Bump Bump.


Bump Bump Bumpity craptacular nutsmackingly Bump.


Bumpity Bumtpity Bpumtitty Pumbitty Pump Bum.


Maybe YOU could answer FDs question DT?
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deepthought
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #88 - Jan 5th, 2008 at 10:14am
 
Quote:
Maybe YOU could answer FDs question DT?


The moment he asks one I will be sure to oceans.
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deepthought
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #89 - Jan 5th, 2008 at 5:13pm
 
deepthought wrote on Jan 5th, 2008 at 7:18am:
deepthought wrote on Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:31pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 2nd, 2008 at 7:38pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump


Bumpity Bump Bump, Bump Bump.


Bump Bump Bumpity craptacular nutsmackingly Bump.


Bumpity Bumtpity Bpumtitty Pumbitty Pump Bum.


Bump Mump Thumpity smacktaculating crapples Bummpy.
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deepthought
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #90 - Jan 6th, 2008 at 2:09pm
 
deepthought wrote on Jan 5th, 2008 at 5:13pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 5th, 2008 at 7:18am:
deepthought wrote on Jan 3rd, 2008 at 9:31pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 2nd, 2008 at 7:38pm:
deepthought wrote on Jan 1st, 2008 at 7:49pm:
deepthought wrote on Dec 31st, 2007 at 9:20am:
deepthought wrote on Dec 29th, 2007 at 9:53am:
freediver wrote on Dec 26th, 2007 at 8:28am:
There were lots of causes operating over different time scales, including Milankovic cycles, variations in the sun's output, natural integrators and positive feedback loops within the earth etc. They were still the drivers up until very recently, when their effects were swamped by anthropogenic influences. The difference now is that CO2 concentrations are unprecedented, as is the rate of warming.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1170222422/72#72


So the cause of global warming before humans got involved were lots of things - but they no longer cause global warming?  Only humans do now?  Why?  What happened to the other stuff which used to cause it?


Bump


Bump Bump


Bumpity Bump Bump, Bump Bump.


Bump Bump Bumpity craptacular nutsmackingly Bump.


Bumpity Bumtpity Bpumtitty Pumbitty Pump Bum.


Bump Mump Thumpity smacktaculating crapples Bummpy.


As freediver continues to post while ignoring this it would be safe to assume he is wrong that humans cause global warming.  And as global warming and cooling has been cycling through the planet's existence it is sheer arrogance to assume we are that important to the globe that the tiny bit of fiddling about we do has any effect whatsoever on a system as complex as atmospheric conditions.

In fact if we are so powerful at altering the weather why don't we stop hurricanes?  Care to answer a simple question free?
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Acid Monkey
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #91 - Jan 6th, 2008 at 4:07pm
 

Maybe he's forgoten the question....

I'm getting a headache with all this bumping.

Wink


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deepthought
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Re: Is this a consensus statement?
Reply #92 - Jan 6th, 2008 at 4:38pm
 
Acid Monkey wrote on Jan 6th, 2008 at 4:07pm:
Maybe he's forgoten the question....

I'm getting a headache with all this bumping.

Wink




Imagine how I feel!!!!!

Cheesy
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