Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Pages: 1 2 3 ... 6
Send Topic Print
baby bonus and fertility rate (Read 29889 times)
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
baby bonus and fertility rate
Dec 1st, 2006 at 4:59pm
 
Carried over from the anti-intellectual thread: http://ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1164078969

Is the baby bonus really working - is it increasing the fertility rate, or is there some other cause? And is it even a good thing?


It's funny, with all this talk of a baby boom I can't find a nice graph of our fertility rate anywhere. I did find a table of births per 1000 people, which indicates our birth rate is actually going down:

Crude Birth and Death Rates for Selected Countries
(per 1,000 population)
  Birth rate                                                          Death rate   
Country  2006 2005 2004 1990  1985  1980  1975  2006 2005 2004 1990  1985  1980  1975 
Australia  12.1 12.3 12.4 15.4  15.7  15.3  16.9         7.5 7.4 7.4 7.0  7.5  7.4  7.9 

source:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004395.html
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
mmadeline
New Member
*
Offline


Whatever.

Posts: 32
QLD
Gender: female
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #1 - Dec 1st, 2006 at 5:29pm
 
I have one baby. I was definitely pleased to get the Baby Bonus. But if I hadn't wanted to have a baby, there is no way I would have had a baby just for the Baby Bonus.

Some of the women I have chatted with online have been influenced by the increases in the Baby Bonus, ie each July it goes up $1K so they have aimed to have their baby due in the second half of the year.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #2 - Dec 8th, 2006 at 6:16pm
 
I've had to pull this together from three sources, two ABS web pages and an SMH article. I could only get a consistent figure for the actual number of births. The first set of figures are for the calendar year (I think) and the last two are for the financial year ending june that year. The last set is from the SMH article.

How many births go unregistered, and would the money change this?

Year  Registered Births (x 1000)

1993      260.2      
1994      258.1      
1995      256.2      
1996      253.8      
1997      251.8      
1998      249.6      
1999      248.9      
2000      249.6      
2001      246.4      
2002      251      
2003      251.2      

1999      250      
2000      249.3      
2001      247.5      
2002      247.4      
2003      247.4      
2004      254.6      

2005      255.6      
2006      264.3      

Or, as a nice giraffe:

...
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Jolanda Challita(Guest)
Guest


Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #3 - Dec 8th, 2006 at 10:10pm
 
I think that the baby bonus works to give some an excuse and even a justification for not being careful enough about birth control.

I wonder how many more births to unmarried young mothers there were after the baby bonus was introduced.






Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #4 - Dec 9th, 2006 at 12:40pm
 
I think the ABS has figures on how many of the births were to unwed mothers. It's like 30% these days.
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Is it even a good idea?
Reply #5 - Dec 14th, 2006 at 7:08pm
 
I've been thinking about this question for a while now. I think it is a bad idea, but it is a complicated argument to make and there are a lot of concepts to get your head around. Anyway, this is what I have come up with:

http://www.ozpolitic.com/population-sustainability.html
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #6 - Dec 29th, 2006 at 4:54pm
 
John Howard made it sound like this was a world first, however the Germans also have a system that offers up to 7200 euros, which is about to increase to 25200 euros (about $33000) on January 1. It is spread out over 1 year and is proportional to their former salary (over 2/3). There is some concern that parents will take steps to delay labor that could put their babies at risk.
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
enviro
Senior Member
****
Offline


Taking Out The Trash

Posts: 323
Weethalle NSW
Gender: male
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #7 - Jan 5th, 2007 at 8:28am
 
freediver wrote on Dec 1st, 2006 at 4:59pm:
Carried over from the anti-intellectual thread: http://ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1164078969

Crude Birth and Death Rates for Selected Countries
(per 1,000 population)
 Birth rate                                                          Death rate    
Country  2006 2005 2004 1990  1985  1980  1975  2006 2005 2004 1990  1985  1980  1975  
Australia  12.1 12.3 12.4 15.4  15.7  15.3  16.9         7.5 7.4 7.4 7.0  7.5  7.4  7.9  

source:

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004395.html


This explains the increase on immigration over these years. And for this country to go through a boom we must have taken on a lot of immigration. No wonder everyone is uptight about integration.

I felt the baby bonus had a dramatic impact. Because we live in an ageing society, that rarely have babies. The baby boomers are passing on, death rates will increase and so will immigration. We are beaten because we don't procreate enough.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
enviro
Senior Member
****
Offline


Taking Out The Trash

Posts: 323
Weethalle NSW
Gender: male
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #8 - Jan 5th, 2007 at 8:36am
 
In fact you can blame feminism for this. The last decline of population you could blame poverty.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
feminism to blame.....
Reply #9 - Jan 6th, 2007 at 4:31pm
 
http://www.ozpolitic.com/population-sustainability.html

http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Babies-inconvenient-for-some-Abbott/2007/01/06/1167777308987.html

Australia's high abortion rate reflects women whose lives are under control but who view childbirth as a "terrible inconvenience", Health Minister Tony Abbott says.
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
enviro
Senior Member
****
Offline


Taking Out The Trash

Posts: 323
Weethalle NSW
Gender: male
Technology compounds growth...
Reply #10 - Jan 7th, 2007 at 11:08am
 
Great article on population sustainability. You are correct but do you believe in restricting technology as the answer?
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #11 - Jan 7th, 2007 at 12:22pm
 
No. It looks like our population is going to plateau naturally, regardless of what technology does.
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Baby bonus is a waste of money: academic
Reply #12 - Apr 19th, 2007 at 9:30am
 
http://www.smh.com.au/news/breaking-news/baby-bonus-is-a-waste-of-money-academic/2007/04/18/1176696900954.html

The federal government's baby bonus is being wasted on babies that would have been born regardless, says a Queensland academic.

The baby bonus, currently a payment of $4,000, has been offered to mothers upon the birth of their child since July 2004, and will rise to $5,000 from July 2008.

"You're paying mothers the same amount for every child, including the first one, whereas clearly a lot of people would have had the child anyway, so it's not very well targeted in that sense."

The economics lecturer suggests the government offer little or no payment for first children and increased payments for each subsequent child, similar to Singapore's baby bonus program.

"If the baby bonus was restricted to second or third children, or at least paid a smaller amount for the first child like the Singaporean model, it could have the same effect at the margins at much less cost to taxpayers," he said.

In any event, Prof Guest believes the baby bonus is not needed.

"We just don't need to increase the birthrate in Australia ... because there's no foreseeable chance of Australia's population actually falling," he said.

"Australia's on an increasing population path."

He argues a baby bonus-fuelled population boom now would offer future economic benefits at a cost to current generations.
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
enviro
Senior Member
****
Offline


Taking Out The Trash

Posts: 323
Weethalle NSW
Gender: male
Re: Baby bonus is a waste of money: academic
Reply #13 - Apr 19th, 2007 at 11:47am
 
This is just a personal opinion from this academic that obviously hasn't put any research into it. For example his comment;

Quote:
"We just don't need to increase the birthrate in Australia ... because there's no foreseeable chance of Australia's population actually falling," he said.


This is because it is propped up by immigration.

Also he said;

Quote:
"Australia's on an increasing population path."


Increasing yes, but this is now because of the baby bonus as well as no reduction in immigration.

What type of argument is this?

Quote:
He argues a baby bonus-fuelled population boom now would offer future economic benefits at a cost to current generations.


Where is his facts regarding costs to current future generations? Everything that the Howard government has done has been aimed at consolidating the future for this great country. What is being saved from unemployment decline is being invested into the future of Australia by way of baby bonus's and other important areas.

Yes, he does make a point that maybe it should be primarily for the second, third, etc. child but I believe the Stats supplied by freediver proves that their is an increase in baby's since the baby bonus conception. People who would have waited another few years before thinking about having a baby would have been prompted by the baby bonus. People who already had the national average of 2 children would have been prompted to have a third and etc.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 40047
I like fish
Re: baby bonus and fertility rate
Reply #14 - Apr 19th, 2007 at 2:15pm
 
Where is his facts regarding costs to current future generations? Everything that the Howard government has done has been aimed at consolidating the future for this great country.

I think that's a bit naive. Everything he has done has been aimed at getting re-elected. Handouts like this are a bad idea. He should have lowered taxes instead. That would have 'consolidated the future' far more effectively. The population situation did not warrant this huge expense. There are far more real and imminent threats to the country.
Back to top
 

It's God's job to forgive terrorists; it's our job to arrange the meeting.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 2 3 ... 6
Send Topic Print