Australia falls to stone cold last in Credit Suisse wealth report

Quote:

An influential global wealth survey has highlighted the world’s greatest loser in economic outcomes this year — Australia. Although the report is in $US, and reflects the impact of falling house prices and a falling $A – and although Australians remain among the richest people in the world – it also confirms that Australia’s economy is being poorly managed. Alan Austin reports. Credit Suisse is a Swiss finance corporation with a prestigious research division and a solid reputation. It publishes a lengthy Global Wealth Report each year and an even longer Global Wealth Databook. In his introduction to the 2019 Wealth Report, released Monday, Urs Rohner, Chairman of Credit Suisse’s Board of Directors, only mentions one economy adversely: The United States added 675,000 newcomers [to the millionaires club], more than half of the global total. Japan and China each contributed more than 150,000, but Australia lost 124,000 millionaires following a fall in average wealth. Average wealth per adult The data embedded in both the report and the databook are damning of Australia’s extraordinary loss of wealth. Regarding average wealth per adult, the report states: “The main loser was Australia (down $US28,670), with other significant losses in Norway (down $US7,520), Turkey (down $US5,230) and Belgium (down $US4,330).” Clearly the other losses are chicken feed compared with Australia’s $US28,670 — which is a thumping $A41,750. The report emphasises Australia’s shame with a prominent chart showing the winners and losers. This graph is theirs, not ours. The comment in red italics is ours.

https://www.michaelwest.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Picture-1.png

Quote:

Australia is one of a tiny minority of countries with wealth per adult lower in 2019 than back in 2012.

Click link for the full picture of the Coalition's failure under Frydendud.

Thank god the adults are in charge eh codsy!

::) ::) ::)

I seriously have no idea what Frydenburg uses for credentials...

Having studied economics myself, I am often left aghast at what these people use for economic responsibility... as anyone can see from the extensions of economic reason I occasionally put out...

Idiots Savant with a degree mean nothing.... you can teach monkeys to fly ...

I'd like to know how his two year old mother escaped from the Holocaust... that must have taken some balls in a two year old...

I smell propaganda here... with a sugar coating of bulldust... and a distinctly privileged upbringing, private schools and all that.... thus he would have no real idea...

If he applied for the job....... well... I can see the conclusion right now...

LOSER!

This leads me to something I've been considering lately:-

Should we have direct election of our PM and all Ministers by the voting public?

Might be the only way we avoid the turkey raffle we currently have...

No minister elected by the party - must pass the test of putting credentials out there for the voters...

That'd kill off a lot of them... if they applied for the job and faced a battery of tests, most wouldn't even get a look-in ...

All we really need

IS A REVOLUTION

To wipe out the politicians and senior public servants from the face of the earth

Then start again.

With a caveat

Stuff up, and we will HAVE ANOTHER REVOLUTION

That's the only thing that will keep them in line

The threat of being beheaded

Alan Austin reports.

Not much point reading any further. Another unqualified idiot crackpot.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 7:22am:

Alan Austin reports. Not much point reading any further. Another unqualified idiot crackpot.

He wrote the article, he did not write the report....Just more deflection and distraction from the rusted on in denial!!!

::) ::) ::)

philperth2010 wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 12:37pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 7:22am: Alan Austin reports. Not much point reading any further. Another unqualified idiot crackpot. He wrote the article, he did not write the report....Just more deflection and distraction from the rusted on in denial!!! ::) ::) ::)

He's selective in the way he reads the report and writes about it. Only an ignoramus would look no further than a cooked up piece of blather from a fukkwit of no consequence.

Try reading the actual CS report. Australia still ranks 4th on the list. If one expresses the wealth indicator in the local Aussie currency it has grown by 16%. There is no deflection nor rusted on agenda. Only a logical look at the truth. You are an ignorant fool.

Bammy has got the wrong end of the stick again (too much GetUp! soup!!) as house prices are actually rising after the shock of thinking Australia was going to be destroyed by the Lunatic Extremist Greenies and the Chinese Labor Party -
RESTART the BOATS!!!
Thieve money from the retirees and pensioners!!! 
Increase electricity prices by 4 times!!!
Use Chinese bribes to run Australia!!!!
Chaos and destruction everywhere!!!

juliar wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 1:54pm:

RESTART the BOATS!!! Thieve money from the retirees and pensioners!!!  Increase electricity prices by 4 times!!! Use Chinese bribes to run Australia!!!! Chaos and destruction everywhere!!!

Here, juliar has let slip the Liberal party's SECRET PLANS TO WRECK AUSTRALIA.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 1:41pm:

Australia still ranks 4th on the list.

Where was Australia ranked when the current government came to office?

Geez Bammy is furious and reacting like a wasps' nest poked with a stick!!!!

The wounds inflicted by Shady Shorty when he betrayed angry Bammy won't heal quickly.

But the consolation is that Australia is now in good safe hands where the VOTERS placed it.

juliar wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 2:38pm:

Geez Bammy is furious and reacting like a wasps' nest poked with a stick!!!! The wounds inflicted by Shady Shorty when he betrayed angry Bammy won't heal quickly. But the consolation is that Australia is now in good safe hands where the VOTERS placed it.

The voters will know very soon again what it's like to live in a RECESSION under a Coalition government.

When Hawke saved Australia from Fraser and Howard's ineptitude, his government had to repair the massive damage caused by the Coalition's double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment, double-digit interest rates and a massive Budget deficit that Howard had concealed from the voters. No government before or since has ever started office from a worse economic position.

Wait 12 months. Will the economy be in a full recession then?

Bam wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 2:27pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 1:41pm: Australia still ranks 4th on the list. Where was Australia ranked when the current government came to office?

It may be more instructive if you actually took the time to read and digest the report rather than rely on the misplaced ramblings Alan Austin.

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

You will see he has used the bar chart from page 7 without explaining exactly what is being measured and conveniently leaving out the original author's caveat of non financial assets as if financial ones don't matter. Further reading in to page 8 finds the author describing the pitfalls of international comparisons regarding asset prices and exchange rates. Mr Austin forgot about that one.

Page 59 gives a more detailed view of Australia in relation to the rest of the world.


Quote:

Despite the exchange rate effects, Australia’s wealth per adult is fourth highest in the world in US dollars. In terms of median wealth, it ranks second after Switzerland.

Taking these into account it is obvious that Alan Austin is nothing more than a petulant fraud and a liar. It is indeed appropriate that he refers to himself as:

"A freelance journalist now living near Nîmes in the South of France."

Nobody else would give him a gig.

Oh dear poor Bammy. In his haste and misguided GetUp! inspired enthusiasm (those HillSong Sessions can bend a weak mind!!!) he has overlooked a glaringly obvious fact.

But the eagle eyed Croc misses NOTHING and scolds naughty Bammy for being so remiss.

Bammy seems to be secretly fantasizing as though Labor really got in.  Thank God they DID NOT. What a mess we would be in by now if they had.

It was an ACT of GOD requested by ScoMo that defeated the evil Greeny controlled Chinese Labor Party and saved Australia from a FATE worse than DEATH!!!!

Valkie wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:06am:

All we really need IS A REVOLUTION To wipe out the politicians and senior public servants from the face of the earth Then start again. With a caveat Stuff up, and we will HAVE ANOTHER REVOLUTION That's the only thing that will keep them in line The threat of being beheaded

Canberra is a failed State.  A fantasy community isolated from the outcomes of their decisions. 

Shut it down. Make it farm land again.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 3:17pm:

Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 2:27pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 1:41pm: Australia still ranks 4th on the list. Where was Australia ranked when the current government came to office? It may be more instructive if you actually took the time to read and digest the report rather than rely on the misplaced ramblings Alan Austin.

So no answer to my question then.

As for the evidence of the crumbling economy under Frydendud, if you're only relying on one report you're being naive. There is ample evidence of the moribund Australian economy sliding deeper into the mire. Annual GDP growth is at its lowest level since the GFC and the economy is only growing because we're importing 300,000 people a year. Unemployment is trending up. Wages growth is very weak. Everywhere you look there's signs of economic weakness. And the government hoards its consolidated tax revenue to itself so they can win a surplus pissing contest instead of enacting modest spending measures to maintain the economy, an approach that you have criticised in the past.

You can whine all you like with rubbish attacking the sources but this kind of fallacious argument will not convince anyone.

Bam wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:06pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 3:17pm: Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 2:27pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 1:41pm: Australia still ranks 4th on the list. Where was Australia ranked when the current government came to office? It may be more instructive if you actually took the time to read and digest the report rather than rely on the misplaced ramblings Alan Austin. So no answer to my question then. It's in the report. I even posted a link to it for your every wish and comfort, complete with page numbers. Did you bother to read it. As for the evidence of the crumbling economy under Frydendud, if you're only relying on one report you're being naive. If you'd care to show me where I've indicated otherwise I'd be interested in reading it. I've only made comments on the veracity of Austin's article and nothing else. You made it up. There is ample evidence of the moribund Australian economy sliding deeper into the mire. Annual GDP growth is at its lowest level since the GFC and the economy is only growing because we're importing 300,000 people a year. Unemployment is trending up. Wages growth is very weak. Everywhere you look there's signs of economic weakness. And the government hoards its consolidated tax revenue to itself so they can win a surplus pissing contest instead of enacting modest spending measures to maintain the economy, an approach that you have criticised in the past. Again, show us all where I have refuted any of this or did you make that up too. You can whine all you like with rubbish attacking the sources but this kind of fallacious argument will not convince anyone. Do you know what the word "fallacious" means. It is the adjective form of fallacy, That is, a lie or mistaken belief. There is nothing of any fallacy of any type in my missive. Austin is shown to be a lying and deceptive turd. That's all there is to it. You're reading into it something that isn't there.

Defeated angry little Bammy is SO outclassed by the magnificent Croc it is like a cat playing with a mouse.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:53pm:

Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:06pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 3:17pm: Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 2:27pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 1:41pm: Australia still ranks 4th on the list. Where was Australia ranked when the current government came to office? It may be more instructive if you actually took the time to read and digest the report rather than rely on the misplaced ramblings Alan Austin. So no answer to my question then. It's in the report. I even posted a link to it for your every wish and comfort, complete with page numbers. Did you bother to read it.

We both know that Australia's standard of living has declined since the Coalition came to office and started pushing down wages. Your refusal to admit that reveals your bias. A pro-Liberal bias? Maybe a pro-neoliberal bias?

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:53pm:

Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:06pm: As for the evidence of the crumbling economy under Frydendud, if you're only relying on one report you're being naive. If you'd care to show me where I've indicated otherwise I'd be interested in reading it. I've only made comments on the veracity of Austin's article and nothing else. You made it up.

You do know how conditionals work? If you are not relying on one report, just say so. It's really not that hard.


crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 6:53pm:

Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:06pm: There is ample evidence of the moribund Australian economy sliding deeper into the mire. Annual GDP growth is at its lowest level since the GFC and the economy is only growing because we're importing 300,000 people a year. Unemployment is trending up. Wages growth is very weak. Everywhere you look there's signs of economic weakness. And the government hoards its consolidated tax revenue to itself so they can win a surplus pissing contest instead of enacting modest spending measures to maintain the economy, an approach that you have criticised in the past. Again, show us all where I have refuted any of this or did you make that up too.

Did I specifically say you "refuted" any of this? No.

The only actual attribution of your point of view here is your criticisms of budget surpluses, which are well known. You have made several remarks criticising budget surpluses in this thread: Most Want The Surplus Goal Abandoned, for example:


crocodile wrote on Sep 6^th, 2019 at 1:14pm:

A government in surplus is also a private sector in deficit. They've simply taxed more than they spent.

crocodile wrote on Sep 7^th, 2019 at 6:06pm:

Surpluses are not required to pay down debt.

crocodile wrote on Sep 7^th, 2019 at 6:09pm:

Deficit budgets should be the norm. Surpluses are virtually never required except in very special cases.

Remarks, incidentally, that I agreed with.


Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2019 at 12:33pm:

crocodile wrote on Sep 6th, 2019 at 1:14pm: A government in surplus is also a private sector in deficit. They've simply taxed more than they spent. Furthermore, a government budget is not like a household budget. Households have limited lifespans, a government theoretically does not. About 80% of all Federal budgets since federation have been in deficit. The country did not go broke. Deficits are not a problem as long as they are sustainable. The debt from World War 2 took about 25 years to pay off. This was done without a single Budget surplus.

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 1:41pm:

philperth2010 wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 12:37pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 7:22am: Alan Austin reports. Not much point reading any further. Another unqualified idiot crackpot. He wrote the article, he did not write the report....Just more deflection and distraction from the rusted on in denial!!! ::) ::) ::) He's selective in the way he reads the report and writes about it. Only an ignoramus would look no further than a cooked up piece of blather from a fukkwit of no consequence. Try reading the actual CS report. Australia still ranks 4th on the list. If one expresses the wealth indicator in the local Aussie currency it has grown by 16%. There is no deflection nor rusted on agenda. Only a logical look at the truth. You are an ignorant fool.

Australia is nothing more than a quarry for the rest of the world. Without the pile of minerals in the ground see how long we would last just relying on a mass immigration racket and flipping old dumps using borrowed money :(

Bammy and the Greeny Scunge - what a team. Knowledge is not power there. The Croc is playing with them like a cat with a mouse.

Maybe Croc is a secret adviser to ScoMo!!!!

But just think how much worse things would be now if Labor had gotten in and RESTARTED the BOATS and Illegal Invaders are pouring into Australia to go onto WELFARE for LIFE at the taxpayers' expense.

Bam wrote on Nov 11^th, 2019 at 10:44pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:53pm: Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:06pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 3:17pm: Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 2:27pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 1:41pm: Australia still ranks 4th on the list. Where was Australia ranked when the current government came to office? It may be more instructive if you actually took the time to read and digest the report rather than rely on the misplaced ramblings Alan Austin. So no answer to my question then. It's in the report. I even posted a link to it for your every wish and comfort, complete with page numbers. Did you bother to read it. We both know that Australia's standard of living has declined since the Coalition came to office and started pushing down wages. Your refusal to admit that reveals your bias. A pro-Liberal bias? Maybe a pro-neoliberal bias?

What's this horseshit. You don't seem to get things through your thick skull. I made no comment whatsoever on anything but the distortions and misinformation perpetuated by Alan Austin. End of story. Living standards and party biases were not even mentioned.

Just for the record, wages growth has been in decline since 2007. It isn't a factor isolated to any particular political entity. It is you that is biased. I don't give two fukks about party lines. Unlike you, I'm interested only in the truth.

Declining wages growth is a result of the erosion over time of total factor productivity.

https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2019/05/Australia-WPI-Q1-2019.jpg

The magnificent Croc lays it into Bammy who is not even a challenge for the mighty Croc.

Will Bammy start a HATE SESSION with the Croc now ?

Bam wrote on Nov 11^th, 2019 at 11:08pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:53pm: Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:06pm: As for the evidence of the crumbling economy under Frydendud, if you're only relying on one report you're being naive. If you'd care to show me where I've indicated otherwise I'd be interested in reading it. I've only made comments on the veracity of Austin's article and nothing else. You made it up. You do know how conditionals work? If you are not relying on one report, just say so. It's really not that hard. What the fukk are you waffling on about. I commented on the report and nothing else. It's really not that hard. crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:53pm: Bam wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 6:06pm: There is ample evidence of the moribund Australian economy sliding deeper into the mire. Annual GDP growth is at its lowest level since the GFC and the economy is only growing because we're importing 300,000 people a year. Unemployment is trending up. Wages growth is very weak. Everywhere you look there's signs of economic weakness. And the government hoards its consolidated tax revenue to itself so they can win a surplus pissing contest instead of enacting modest spending measures to maintain the economy, an approach that you have criticised in the past. Again, show us all where I have refuted any of this or did you make that up too. Did I specifically say you "refuted" any of this? No. Good, now kindly fukk off. The only actual attribution of your point of view here is your criticisms of budget surpluses, which are well known. You have made several remarks criticising budget surpluses in this thread: Most Want The Surplus Goal Abandoned, for example: crocodile wrote on Sep 6th, 2019 at 1:14pm: A government in surplus is also a private sector in deficit. They've simply taxed more than they spent. crocodile wrote on Sep 7th, 2019 at 6:06pm: Surpluses are not required to pay down debt. crocodile wrote on Sep 7th, 2019 at 6:09pm: Deficit budgets should be the norm. Surpluses are virtually never required except in very special cases. Remarks, incidentally, that I agreed with. So where have I made any remarks on the budget position while pointing out Austin's hoerseshit. You're off with the fairies. Bam wrote on Sep 7th, 2019 at 12:33pm: crocodile wrote on Sep 6th, 2019 at 1:14pm: A government in surplus is also a private sector in deficit. They've simply taxed more than they spent. Furthermore, a government budget is not like a household budget. Households have limited lifespans, a government theoretically does not. About 80% of all Federal budgets since federation have been in deficit. The country did not go broke. Deficits are not a problem as long as they are sustainable. The debt from World War 2 took about 25 years to pay off. This was done without a single Budget surplus.

Kindly point out where I've changed position on these items that you have laboriously cited. Either put up or shut up.

Thank Heavens Labor did not get in and thank Heavens for the wisdom of the Croc.

Now a look at things thru non Lefty/Greeny eyes who want to make things look as bad as possible.



Don’t look now, but the economy just might be perking up
Stephen Koukoulas Yahoo Finance 23 October 2019

https://i.postimg.cc/xT63YCJV/gdpb.png
Is the sun rising again on Australia's economy? (Source: Getty, Yahoo Finance)

Every month or so, I undertake a total revamp of my assessment and forecasts for the economy.

With this wipe-the-slate-clean revamp, I take account of the most up to date data, incorporate policy changes and I build in new judgments on the outlook for the global economy.

And so it was last week, when I was revamping my GDP forecasting spreadsheet to assess the risks of recession, the prospects for a booming rebound and all things in between.

It is a lot of fun and helps me to throw forward pre-empt how the economy and, importantly, financial markets will travel. That said, I am not one of those eggheads who lives and dies by what my model is telling me, but such spreadsheet fiddling makes me sit up and take notice of what is happening.

The last update, last week, was one of those times.

Economy to perk up in 2020: Here’s why
Indeed, for the first time in quite a while, I am getting a bit excited about the upside for the economy in 2020. Not a boom, but solid, strong, decent economic growth lies ahead.

In fact, I now put the chances of the economy falling into recession in 2020 or 2021 for that matter at about 0.1 per cent. Never say never, but I am more likely to beat Usain Bolt over 100 metres than the Australian economy is of cascading into recession.

Here’s the how and why of how I reached that conclusion.

Dwelling construction
Let’s start with some bad news.

It is pretty clear that dwelling investment (which makes up around 5 per cent of GDP) is set to fall by around 8 per cent in 2020. This means that by itself, we start my GDP build with a -0.4 percentage points on GDP (5 per cent times minus 8 per cent). That’s said, I am factoring in a housing construction rebound in the second half of 2020 as a supply shortage impacts property developers and house prices. That is a question that should see dwelling investment add to GDP in 2021.

Impact in 2020: -0.4 percentage points

Now the good news.

Private capital expenditure
In terms of private capital expenditure, which accounts for around 12 per cent of real GDP, the Bureau of Statistics expectations survey points to strong growth in 2020. Based on the hard data on expectations, it looks like private capex will rise by 9 per cent as businesses are gearing up for a lift in non-residential construction and strong growth in spending on plant and equipment (note we have a technology boom globally still happening).

Impact in 2020: +1.1 percentage points

Government consumption and investment
Government demand is spilt between consumption and investment – the latter includes some of the infrastructure boom being rolled out. Government consumption accounts for about 19 per cent of GDP while government investment is an additional 5 per cent. Based on government consumption growth of 3.25 per cent (very conservative given the NDIS roll out and more) and public investment growth of 6 per cent, government demand will contribute a hefty 0.9 percentage points to GDP.

Impact in 2020: +1.0 percentage points

Net exports
Net exports are a wild card. Export volumes are growing solidly and there is more upside in the output of gas and iron ore. Global economic growth looks like being firm which will help the export sector.

This will be offset somewhat by weakness on coal export volumes. In terms of services, the recent weakening in tourism and education may moderate. A hugely competitive Aussie dollar (and by that I mean anything under 75 US cents) and exports are likely to grow by around 6 per cent.

This nice addition to GDP will however, in my estimate, be more than completely offset by a surge in imports. That business investment lift, noted above, has a high import concentration, which means that net exports (exports minus imports) is likely to trim a small amount from bottom line GDP.

Impact in 2020: -0.2 percentage points

At this point, when we add up the contributions to GDP, we have growth in 2020 at 1.5 per cent.

Of course, I have not yet covered the biggy for the economy – household consumption.

This non Lefty/Greeny jaundiced view continues overleaf

This non Lefty/Greeny jaundiced view continues...

Of course, I have not yet covered the biggy for the economy – household consumption.

Household consumption
Household consumption accounts for around 57 per centre of GDP. It matters to the core growth rate of the economy.

In forecasting household consumption, I plug in the following drivers – disposable income, employment, wealth and savings. With a bunch of rather conservative assumption on those fronts, I get household consumption growth of 2.5 per cent in 2020. With a bit of a push, I can get growth to 2.8 per cent, but for the sake of being conservative, I’ll stick with the 2.5. For something that is 57 per cent of GDP growing at 2.5 per cent, the bottom line contribution to GDP is 1.4 percentage points.

Impact in 2020: +1.4 percentage points

Add this to the above calculations and GDP growth in 2020 falls out of my spreadsheet at a solid 2.9 per cent.

If household consumption is even a touch stronger (rising wealth), the dwelling investment cycle is less a drag as it turns higher earlier or net exports are simply neutral as resources export volumes continue to boom, then GDP growth in 2020 would be nearer 3.5 per cent.

This outlook is based, in part, on a scenario where the RBA delivers one final interest rate cut to 0.5 per cent and where the government marginally loosens fiscal policy before year end, including in areas of drought assistance or other spending measures.

Amid this, I note that in 2020 inflation remains around 1.8 per cent, the unemployment rate does not fall much and hovers near 5 per cent and wages growth stays around 2.3 per cent.

There would also be upside if the Trump trade war issues moderate, as they probably will, China continues to deliver stimulatory policy and commodity prices drop only 10 per cent as opposed to the 20 per cent broadly assumed in my calculation.

At this stage, as there is a rush in the economics profession to embrace gloom and pessimism, my forecast looks to be an outlier, but as was the case over the past few years, I am very happy let my forecasts, not my prejudice and wish for media coverage, to win out.

Stephen Koukoulas is no nonsense economist who calls it without fear or favour. He is currently Managing Director of Market Economics as well as being a Research Fellow, Per Capita. He tweets at @TheKouk.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-perking-up-kouk-195329917.html

Things are not nearly as bad as the Lefty/Greeny pessimists try to make out.  Certainly nowhere near as bad as they would be if Labor had got in.



‘Absolutely no surprise’: Leading economist brushes off economic growth downgrade
Anastasia Santoreneos Yahoo Finance 16 October 2019

https://i.postimg.cc/B6VfdDW7/gdp764a.jpg
Australia's economic downgrade is 'no surprise', says leading economist. Source: Getty

Australia’s expected economic growth this year has been downgraded to 1.7 per cent from 2.1 per cent by the International Monetary Fund, but leading economist Stephen Koukoulas isn’t surprised, nor worried.

“It’s absolutely no surprise at all,” he told Yahoo Finance.

“I think the report has really only just caught up with what we saw in the June quarter GDP results, which came out five or six weeks ago now.”

“That showed the economy growing at around 1.4 per cent in annual terms, so the IMF is really reflecting that.”

Koukoulas said the bond market and the Aussie dollar didn’t change at all in reaction to IMF report, adding, “in a sense, it’s nothing new”.

Rather than focusing on the 2019 figures, the 2020 figures are more important Koukoulas said,

The IMF predicted Australia’s economy would grow 2.3 per cent in 2020 - down from a predicted 2.7 per cent growth in the April forecasts.

“This is sort of a glass-half-full approach to forecasting GDP growth - it’s [2.3 per cent] clearly not strong, it’s not good enough to make inroads into unemployment, but nor is it catastrophic.”

“The economy is not disastrous, and I think that’s the main thing.”


We’re not headed for a recession
Koukoulas said the IMF was forecasting a pick up, and not an economic crisis in Australia next year.

“I think the IMF reports reflect the gentle upturn in the economy, when we look at things like infrastructure, spending, mining, export volumes - they’re all doing really well, and that’s why we’re not going to have a recession.”

Koukoulas said Australia’s GDP would become strong again.

“Not very strong, but the capital, the mining, the infrastructure, the exports...Not great, but not catastrophic.”

Australian economy still facing headwinds
Responding to IMF’s downgraded forecasts, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said “we do face headwinds”.

"The international challenges are a stark reminder of why we must stick to our economic plan, which will deliver lower taxes so Australians can keep more of what they earn,” he said.

And Koukoulas agreed.

“One [challenge] is the weak wages crisis. The globalisation of labour markets, the gig economy, technology taking jobs of humans - these are the sorts of things keeping downward pressure on wages growth.”

“Previously, it was the fall in house prices, but that appears to be turning now.”

Globally, Koukoulas says the trade war is also a major headwind for Australia.

But we will need another rate cut
We will need some more interest rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending, Koukoulas said.

“The RBA addressed this in their minutes yesterday - we might actually get a little bit of movement out of Canberra,” he said.

We’ve had three rate cuts this year, and there will be more to come in November or December, Koukoulas said.

We could also see the budget surplus reduced slightly and some fiscal policy stimulus by the end of the year, Koukoulas said.

“That seems to be increasing in probability.”

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-brushes-off-australia-economic-growth-downgrade-233736639.html

crocodile wrote on Nov 10^th, 2019 at 1:41pm:

philperth2010 wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 12:37pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 7:22am: Alan Austin reports. Not much point reading any further. Another unqualified idiot crackpot. He wrote the article, he did not write the report....Just more deflection and distraction from the rusted on in denial!!! ::) ::) ::) He's selective in the way he reads the report and writes about it. Only an ignoramus would look no further than a cooked up piece of blather from a fukkwit of no consequence.

The only fukkwit of no consequence would be you....Any time the Coalition's performance is criticised you attack the credibility of the author and spin bullshit of no relevance....By any measure the Morrison Government is doing nothing with no plan to do any more than that....Ya dickhead!!!

::) ::) ::)

Rumblings of global recession get louder

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rumblings-of-global-recession-get-louder-20191003-p52x86

Of course Australia, not being a part of the global community, will be spared. /sarc

But Phil see the reports from journos which say things will pick up in 2020.

Don't blame me for seeking out the TRUTH and the FACTS.

philperth2010 wrote on Nov 12^th, 2019 at 4:56pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 1:41pm: philperth2010 wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 12:37pm: crocodile wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 7:22am: Alan Austin reports. Not much point reading any further. Another unqualified idiot crackpot. He wrote the article, he did not write the report....Just more deflection and distraction from the rusted on in denial!!! ::) ::) ::) He's selective in the way he reads the report and writes about it. Only an ignoramus would look no further than a cooked up piece of blather from a fukkwit of no consequence. The only fukkwit of no consequence would be you.... We'll see about that Any time the Coalition's performance is criticised you attack the credibility of the author and spin bullshit of no relevance.... Just shows what a complete cockhead you really are. Even in this very thread the Bamster has highlighted where I've attacked the proposed surplus attempt of this government. I wouldn't expect an illiterate fool like yourself notice. Now why not have a laugh on me and show us all this bullshit of no relevance that has been spun. I've highlighted the truth of Austin's poor attempt at hoodwinking the likes of yourself. Put up or shut up and look like an even bigger fool. By any measure the Morrison Government is doing nothing with no plan to do any more than that....Ya dickhead!!! Care to point out where I've said otherwise or did you make that up too. You need to spend less time in the shower with your fists around your old fella. ::) ::) ::)

juliar wrote on Nov 12^th, 2019 at 8:35pm:

But Phil see the reports from journos which say things will pick up in 2020. Don't blame me for seeking out the TRUTH and the FACTS.

the only thing that will pickup in 2020 are the banks ripping everyone off. There are no real wealth creating industries left here :(

Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 12^th, 2019 at 10:43pm:

juliar wrote on Nov 12th, 2019 at 8:35pm: But Phil see the reports from journos which say things will pick up in 2020. Don't blame me for seeking out the TRUTH and the FACTS. the only thing that will pickup in 2020 are the banks ripping everyone off. There are no real wealth creating industries left here :(

Not for Nails anyway. Too busy whinging about it.

crocodile wrote on Nov 12^th, 2019 at 10:46pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 12th, 2019 at 10:43pm: juliar wrote on Nov 12th, 2019 at 8:35pm: But Phil see the reports from journos which say things will pick up in 2020. Don't blame me for seeking out the TRUTH and the FACTS. the only thing that will pickup in 2020 are the banks ripping everyone off. There are no real wealth creating industries left here :( Not for Nails anyway. Too busy whinging about it.

As opposed to big-noting yourselves for buying shares in dominoes pizza, Nick Scarli furniture and cash converters. F.ckoff mate :(

Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 12^th, 2019 at 10:55pm:

crocodile wrote on Nov 12th, 2019 at 10:46pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 12th, 2019 at 10:43pm: juliar wrote on Nov 12th, 2019 at 8:35pm: But Phil see the reports from journos which say things will pick up in 2020. Don't blame me for seeking out the TRUTH and the FACTS. the only thing that will pickup in 2020 are the banks ripping everyone off. There are no real wealth creating industries left here :( Not for Nails anyway. Too busy whinging about it. As opposed to big-noting yourselves for buying shares in dominoes pizza, Nick Scarli furniture and cash converters. F.ckoff mate :(

Don't own any of those shares. Keep your head up your arse.

The wonderful Croc shoves the silly dumb Greeny Scunge back down into her smelly burrow.  Why does she insist on embarrassing herself by displaying her legendary ignorance ?

And, despite the best efforts of the Lefty/Greeny pessimists, economic performance is steadily improving towards more improvement in 2020.



Australian business activity improves modestly in Oct: survey
TUE, NOV 12, 2019 - 8:56 AM

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sites/default/files/styles/680x453/public/image/2019/11/12/rk_AUskyline_121119.jpg
A closely watched measure of Australian business conditions edged higher in October as firms reported a much-needed pick up in sales, offering a hint of stabilisation after months of weakness.

National Australia Bank's index of business conditions inched up one point to +3 in October, but remains under the long-run average of +6. The survey's volatile measure of business confidence bounced two points to +2.

The index of sales rose three points to +7, while employment held at +4.

"This month's survey results continue to point to only modest outcomes in the business sector, though forward-looking indicators have improved slightly and may be pointing to a stabilisation in conditions," NAB group chief economist Alan Oster said.

"Acknowledging that the impact of recent rate cuts will take time to flow through the economy, it appears that the support provided by both fiscal and monetary policy this year has done little to offset the slowdown in the business sector."


Australia's A$1.95 trillion (S$1.78 trillion) economy has dodged recession since the early 1990s but has now hit a soft patch, with sluggish consumer spending and lacklustre wage growth leading to a broader slowdown.

The Reserve Bank of Australia responded by slashing interest rates three times to a record low 0.75 per cent. Financial futures are leaning toward one more 25-basis-point cut by the middle of next year.

The conservative government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison also launched a round of tax rebates in July, though households seem to have saved much of the cash rather than spend it.

Some leading indicators in the NAB survey improved in September, with forward orders, historically the most reliable indicator of domestic demand, rising to +3, from -2.

Measures of inflation showed a sharp rise in retail prices in October amid signs firms were passing on higher import costs stemming from a soft Australian dollar.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/australian-business-activity-improves-modestly-in-oct-survey

So now we can add Bellamys as another sellout to the chinese by this corrupt government. Wonder what's in it for the frydendud? Brown paper bags? Employment after politics? Aceholes!

lee wrote on Nov 12^th, 2019 at 5:03pm:

Rumblings of global recession get louder https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rumblings-of-global-recession-get-louder-20191003-p52x86 Of course Australia, not being a part of the global community, will be spared. /sarc

Governments get punished for recessions, and the voters don't make allowance for global factors.

Then what would Labor have copped for plunging Australia into the DEPRESSION they would have caused if they had been elected ?

Australia escaped a fate worse than death when the well informed voters shoved Labor into the garbage bag. Was this an ACT of GOD to save Australia ?