I vote for the Liberal Democrats whenever I get the chance, but like many I thought Labor were going to win. The simple reason is that polling for the last 2 - 3 years on a 2PP basis was almost always in favour of Labor, even by surveys that can be considered to be LNP - leaning.

So how did the polls get it so wrong? Does it have something to do with the scope of the people it surveys - is it too "city-centric" for lack of a better term? Bill Shorten was always runner up in the "Preferred PM" polls, even when Scott Morrison became leader. I'm assuming that this was probably one of the main reasons why the public favoured the LNP on Election Day.

minarchist.

this election, brexit, trump, 

what is going on?

i think it is this.

when people are speaking to a pollster, they are in the logical part of their brain, they are being asked logical questions  and they give logical replies.

but when people are choosing a leader, they THINK they use the logical part of their brain but they actually vote their emotional state and not their logical state.

there is NO DOUBT, that from a logical perspective, the policies of trump, of scomo and of brexit arent really that appealing to fat steve and fat janeen.

steve and janeen and joe lunchbox and mike six-pack are in a durr state and they just have got used to "taking " in life.

they take from the sugary spicy food, they take from the iphone and the netflix, they take from the porn, and they definitely want to TAKE from government.
they want want want
they are so NEEDY.
they dont have a contributory bone in their body!!.

but heres what you need to understand about how their emotional state trips them up.

when you are a taker, you are really looking for a source of energy to leech off of.
i say this all the time.

People are (subconsciously) ATTRACTED to anyone who is in high vibration because they can value leech good emotions off them.

when people walk into a party, the dumbies in the durr state all gravitiate to the one guy who is cracking jokes, laughing and giving off good energy.

now think carefully.

does Bill give off good energy.
does tanya plibosek
does penny wong
does chris bowen.
does sally mcmanus.

their energy is so low, they are stuck in this energy field of "YUK".
from so many years of being either in the unions (toxic complaining and taking) or being public intellectuals (toxic complaining, virtue signalling, call out culture, fake offence and fake moral superiority), they have DEMOLISHED anything that was fun, joyful, expansive and playful about themselves.


contrast thiose guys with hawke who was fun, joyful, playful and expansive and thats the reason the polls get it wrong.

a pollster isnt fun and people wont vibe with a pollster and they give the pollster one set of answers.

but when the party starts, they dont want to be stuck for 4 years talking to bill shorten or hilary clinton when they could be vibing with trump or scomo who have much better energy.

the entertainment fantasy complex has come to politics.
ignore it at your peril.

(one thing you could say about rudd is ...high energy),
one thing you could say about abbott is ...low energy...at least in front of the camera.
learn to raise your vibrational energy or you are screwed

So, shorter version, people are stupid and easily mislead.

aquascoot wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 6:03am:

minarchist. ......but heres what you need to understand..... when you are a taker, you are really looking for a source of energy to leech off of. i say this all the time. People are (subconsciously) ATTRACTED to anyone who is in high vibration because they can value leech good emotions off them.

That sounds/'vibes' as correct aqua, to me.


Every time i saw him on the TV,    Bill Shorten didn't vibe, or carry himself, as genuine, to me, during the campaign.

In contrast, every time i saw him on the TV,    Scott Morrison, seemed genuine and upbeat, in his 'messaging'.




Anyone heard how Fraser Anning's party went, in the Senate election ?

Bull Shitten lost every preferred PM poll, perhaps they were the only accurate polls.

Quote:

now think carefully. does Bill give off good energy. does tanya plibosek does penny wong does chris bowen. does sally McManus

nutshell

I have long suspected that ScoMo was telling NewsPoll what results he wanted as part of his strategy to frighten the beJesus out of the voters by making them think Labor was going to win and drag Australia down into the SEWERS of SOCIALISM.

That reply by Aquascoot about energy being vibrated is particularly true. Unfortunately, Bill doesn't have it, neither does Chris Bowen and a few other high profile Labor people.


Labor have lost their Enthusiasm for life, sure people might be in a tough situation, but are looking for hope and enthusiasm to get them through the day.

ScoMo had it in buckets but the Labor Leadership were too Conservative in their message and delivery.

The trouble is that Shorty has the charisma of a cadaver or piece of roadkill.

He is a terrible speaker so wooden and boring.

actually the polls got it pretty close with 49 to 51.

juliar wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 8:49am:

The trouble is that Shorty has the charisma of a cadaver or piece of roadkill. He is a terrible speaker so wooden and boring. actually the polls got it pretty close with 49 to 51.

;D

Another 4 years of popularity and lies over good policy.

According to Antony Green (on the ABC last night) it's because people don't use landlines any more. This makes it a lot harder to get a representative sample.

I would add to that that after dealing with email spam all day, people are more likely to just hang up on spam phone calls.

freediver wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 9:45am:

According to Antony Green (on the ABC last night) it's because people don't use landlines any more. This makes it a lot harder to get a representative sample. I would add to that that after dealing with email spam all day, people are more likely to just hang up on spam phone calls.

I hung up on 70% and lied to 30% my view is none of their business.

It is possible that the numbers changed in the Last week. News Ltd stepped up their propaganda campaign in the final week or two going. The right media going as far as to revive the shorten rape case in the shadows of the post.

Also the right wing splinter party's attracted votes that went to the Liberals. The sneaky indirect Liberal vote has grown substantially.

Dnarever wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 9:54am:

It is possible that the numbers changed in the Last week. News Ltd stepped up their propaganda campaign in the final week or two going. The right media going as far as to revive the shorten rape case in the shadows of the post. Also the right wing splinter party's attracted votes that went to the Liberals. The sneaky indirect Liberal vote has grown substantially.

Nope.

6 years of negative polls about Shorten and a mistrust of Labor's tax grab.

Australia didn't like the leader or the policies. Simple.

PZ547 wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 7:34am:

Quote: now think carefully. does Bill give off good energy. does tanya plibosek does penny wong does chris bowen. does sally McManus nutshell

No just nuts hell

PZ547 wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 7:34am:

Quote: now think carefully. does Bill give off good energy. does tanya plibosek does penny wong does chris bowen. does sally McManus nutshell

I concur. They are a bunch of misfits, elevated to positions that they shouln't be in. God knows what would have happened if this utter shambles of a Labor rabble was to have power. Spend, spend, spend, waste, waste, waste. It's a great day to wake up to.

minarchist wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 5:09am:

Bill Shorten was always runner up in the "Preferred PM" polls, even when Scott Morrison became leader. I'm assuming that this was probably one of the main reasons why the public favoured the LNP on Election Day.

Incorrect

The "preferred PM" poll has always favoured the incumbent PM, even when their party is about to get voted out.

The polls do seem to have got it spectacularly wrong. The only 2 polls the Coaltion have won over the past 6 years have been the actual elections.

I think for once aquascoot is pretty close to the mark.
Polls are answered with logic
Voting is done emotionally

SadKangaroo wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 6:25am:

So, shorter version, people are stupid and easily mislead.

this is a political forum and even a dumbie on here is a PhD compared to the electorate.
this is where labor so often fall down.

joe lunchbox wouldnt have a clue about who brings in what policy, he wouldnt know anything about who ordered the subs or who started the NBN or what the adani coal mine means.

and CLEARLY if he just went on "policies" then WTF would he be voting for tax breaks for the big end of town over a rise in the minimum wage or better penalty rates.

he is NOT LOOKING AT THE POLICIES (because 1/2 the time they dont get enacted).

he looks at the guy, he goes inside his body and feels if this guy makes him feel good and if he doesnt feel good, he EMOTIONALLY will not vote for him.

this, sad skippy, is the reason why good salesmen (who tend to be in business and therefore liberals) will always beat public policy intellectuals (who tend to be the sorts of numpties who appear on the ABC).

because the salesman gets feedback in real time if he is affecting the customer.
and people DO NOT buy new cars or houses or clothes or jewelry based on logic.
they buy it based on emotions.
and salespeople get sharper and sharper and better and better at vibing with the customer.

and labor intellectuals (who you admire as producing good policy) dont know how to sell and they get destroyed. 

blame joe lunchbox if you want.
a smarter move would be to admit your error and learn.

you should be studying success.
you should be studying trump and scomo.
you should be in awe of what they achieved.
you should be willing to spend $1000 to take trump or scomo out to dinner and learn from them.

but the ego of the leftie will NEVER allow this to happen.

to be honest, a good salesman gets to feel his life has a meaning by selling.
but a leftie probably has a lame ass job he hates and he gets meaning by being outraged .
and why would he learn, when learning would mean he needs to set his "reason for living", his "outrage" aside.

he loves losing, it allows him to continue the outrage,

in self improvement, we call this "self sabotage" , "limiting beliefs" and " success barriers".

because BY LOSING, the leftie can remain lazy, he doesnt have to climb, he can just remain outraged and he LOVES getting up every morning and feeling he has to go back and man the barricades.

imagine how sad a member of" get up" would be if bill won.
his life would cease to have any meaning

the left loves its pain (clearly), they love scomo giving cash to the big end of town, they love trump giving cash to the big end of town.

if they didnt so love it, they would take the lesson.
but that will never happen
you dont get what you want (what you think you want)
you get what you are .

Dnarever wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 9:50am:

I hung up on 70% and lied to 30% my view is none of their business.

And that is part of the reason.

The polls assume that based on the polling something will happen. it does not take into account population demographics and how they change over time.

Quote:

How did the polls get it so wrong?

I suspect Greens comment about landlines might have some truth to it. That and the fact that people are idiots.

The really sad part for the country is that this very likely is the last time you'll have an election where the policies are outlined in advance. All you'll see from now on is negative campaigning about the opposition rather than policy based campaigns.

Baronvonrort wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 7:32am:

Bull Shitten lost every preferred PM poll, perhaps they were the only accurate polls.

I’ve listed pretty accurately why Labor lost in another thread.

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 12:49pm:

Dnarever wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 9:50am: I hung up on 70% and lied to 30% my view is none of their business. And that is part of the reason. The polls assume that based on the polling something will happen. it does not take into account population demographics and how they change over time.

polls have assumed that since the concept of polling first started ... this is the first time i can recall where they didn't ultimately get it right in this country.

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 12:58pm:

Quote: How did the polls get it so wrong? I suspect Greens comment about landlines might have some truth to it. That and the fact that people are idiots. The really sad part for the country is that this very likely is the last time you'll have an election where the policies are outlined in advance. All you'll see from now on is negative campaigning about the opposition rather than policy based campaigns.

Idiots who see Shorten as a shadowy deal maker.
Idiots who see how the franking credit change will effect their elderly parents.
Idiots don't like the idea of wealth distribution.

It's the arrogance of the left and people like you calling those with a different opinion idiots that just lost the unlosable election.

Well done.

Gordon wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:05pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 12:58pm: Quote: How did the polls get it so wrong? I suspect Greens comment about landlines might have some truth to it. That and the fact that people are idiots. The really sad part for the country is that this very likely is the last time you'll have an election where the policies are outlined in advance. All you'll see from now on is negative campaigning about the opposition rather than policy based campaigns. Idiots who see Shorten as a shadowy deal maker. Idiots who see how the franking credit change will effect their elderly parents. Idiots don't like the idea of wealth distribution. It's the arrogance of the left and people like you calling those with a different opinion idiots that just lost the unlosable election. Well done.

idiots who believe their twitter feeds over reality


let me guess, you're going to claim there was an inheritance tax too, right?  :D :D

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 12:59pm:

. this is the first time i can recall where they didn't ultimately get it right in this country.

"Since 1993, Newspoll has accurately predicted the winner of the two-party vote about 80% of the time, and in 2010 and 2016 the polling almost exactly matched the result."

https://www.moadoph.gov.au/blog/a-brief-history-of-opinion-polls/

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:11pm:

idiots who believe their twitter feeds over reality

You mean like this? -

"Australian Labor on Twitter: "A Shorten Labor government will invest ..."

https://twitter.com/AustralianLabor/status/1127094903924592640

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:27pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 1:11pm: idiots who believe their twitter feeds over reality You mean like this? - "Australian Labor on Twitter: "A Shorten Labor government will invest ..." https://twitter.com/AustralianLabor/status/1127094903924592640

obviously not like that one you fool, labor lost

Calling the majority of Australians idiots.

Ah the socialist elites.

Do you want to assassinate Morrison like your mate, Greg?

Gordon wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:34pm:

Calling the majority of Australians idiots. Ah the socialist elites. Do you want to assassinate Morrison like your mate, Greg?

the only socialist is in your brain you moron.

How did they get it so wrong? Two words: Wishful thinking.

All the major media platforms are riddled with Left-leaning urban sophisticates who have your best interests at heart. The day of the election, every article on the ABC page was a negative perception of the Coalition or its likely preferences. As a news agency, the ABC has no ability to deliver unbiased political commentary. On Saturday night, Annabel Crabbe implied the Queensland electorate where ignorant yokels, and UAP was not a real political party, backed up by Penny Wong who said Clive's money was not the same colour as the Trade Union's - or words to that effect.

Gordon wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:05pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 12:58pm: Quote: How did the polls get it so wrong? I suspect Greens comment about landlines might have some truth to it. That and the fact that people are idiots. The really sad part for the country is that this very likely is the last time you'll have an election where the policies are outlined in advance. All you'll see from now on is negative campaigning about the opposition rather than policy based campaigns. Idiots who see Shorten as a shadowy deal maker. Idiots who see how the franking credit change will effect their elderly parents. Idiots don't like the idea of wealth distribution. It's the arrogance of the left and people like you calling those with a different opinion idiots that just lost the unlosable election. Well done.

well said gordy..

I think everyone got a taste of labrites..when bowen said

if you dont like our policies vote for someone else..


so arrogant so rude.... so UP YOU GEORGE.. >:(

well I believe in KARMA.... and this was a classic case of deja vu.!!!! labor... we did just that..

issuevoter wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:40pm:

How did they get it so wrong? Two words: Wishful thinking. All the major media platforms are riddled with Left-leaning urban sophisticates who have your best interests at heart. The day of the election, every article on the ABC page was a negative perception of the Coalition or its likely preferences. As a news agency, the ABC has no ability to deliver unbiased political commentary. On Saturday night, Annabel Crabbe implied the Queensland electorate where ignorant yokels, and UAP was not a real political party, backed up by Penny Wong who said Clive's money was not the same colour as the Trade Union's - or words to that effect.

and!
taking us for  granted!

calling us names...

thinking they can buy our votes...

some of us do have integrity   and wont sell our vote...Palmer I trust is also learning that lesson about aussies..

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:30pm:

obviously not like that one you fool, labor lost

So some twitter feeds are god and some bad. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Based on your perception.

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:49pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 1:30pm: obviously not like that one you fool, labor lost So some twitter feeds are god and some bad. ;D ;D ;D ;D Based on your perception.

who said some are good and some are bad?

tell me, how long know have you been struggling with comprehension? Has it been a life long affliction or is it a relatively recent development?

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 1:54pm:

who said some are good and some are bad?

So if Liberals using them is bad, then all must be bad. Why must Labor use such "bad" things?

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:26pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 1:54pm: who said some are good and some are bad? So if Liberals using them is bad, then all must be bad. Why must Labor use such "bad" things?

so no one said some were good and some bad then?

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:27pm:

so no one said some were good and some bad then?

Ah well in that case there was nothing wrong with Twitter at all.

So much for your butt hurt feelings. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:29pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 2:27pm: so no one said some were good and some bad then? Ah well in that case there was nothing wrong with Twitter at all. So much for your butt hurt feelings. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

who said there was anything wrong with twitter?

I'll repeat my earlier question since you failed to answer earlier

tell me, how long know have you been struggling with comprehension? Has it been a life long affliction or is it a relatively recent development?

Not read the thread but a friend told me that a big problem with accuracy this year is that they are ringing mobile phone numbers and not land lines, so they've no idea they're canvassing electorates.

I've had calls to my work phone even and so have many of people i know.

The other thing that has clearly happened is that people have lied when they've stated that climate change is their number one concern. Clearly the economy is.

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:31pm:

who said there was anything wrong with twitter?

Well then the Liberal's must have got it right and Labor wrong. ;)

Why did the ALP lose?

Basically it was because the Tories were decided to be a better choice by the Australian electorate.

Why did they decide that? Partly because of the scare campaign mounted by the Tories, partly because of the ALP's own inability/unwillingness to explain their own policies sufficiently well enough to counter that scare campaign.

One thing I noticed during the campaign was that just how bad the scare campaigns by both sides were.

The ALP's answer to the Tories' scare campaign was one of their own. However, it wasn't as effectively as the Tories'. They would have been better off simply discounting the scare campaign - treat it with humour and be dismissive of it. Hawke was good at that, he go rid of the old "kicking the Communist can" regularly used by the Tories to frighten the voters.

Shorten is not the inspiring leader they made him out to be. He is fairly dreary and too much of a back room man. He would be effective in Union politics but he's proved he's a failure in Federal politics.

So, who is to succeed him? I like Tanya Plebiasek. However, she would have a tough time ahead of her. The Tories are nasty people and would mock her gender. Some in her own party could also be a problem. She would face a monumental job rebuilding the ALP and facing an arrogant Tories. So, who else is possibly in the frame?

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:39pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 2:31pm: who said there was anything wrong with twitter? Well then the Liberal's must have got it right and Labor wrong. ;)

obviously.... after all, the liberals won. I never said they got it wrong. I said the voters got it wrong.

do you think pretending you don't have an issue with comprehension will make it better long term?

mothra wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:34pm:

The other thing that has clearly happened is that people have lied when they've stated that climate change is their number one concern.

That was from the left leaning Lowy Institute. I haven't seen where they have released to questionnaire yet.

These things depend so much on the questions asked and the manner of asking.

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:41pm:

I never said they got it wrong. I said the voters got it wrong.

And that us YOUR assumption. So the voters got that wrong and the Labor Twitter feed wrong as well, because the didn't vote Labor.

Or perhaps people really take no notice of Twitter for their opinions. ;)

Brian Ross wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:40pm:

The Tories are nasty people and would mock her gender.

You mean like they didn't do to Julia, despite her protestations? ;)

I'm reminded of the late great Robert Menzies who said once on an election defeat: "The people have made a popular mistake."

The fact is: "The electorate never gets it wrong" should be the attitude. If Labor ignores what happened last night, they will keep on losing.

.

Quote:

Wrong polls blindsided nation, but 'Shorten knew all along' As Scott Morrison charged to victory yesterday, seemingly defying all odds, Australians were left scratching their heads about how the polls could have got it so wrong. In the past two years leading up to last night’s election, the Coalition did not win a single Newspoll. Even as late as Friday night, Newspoll, YouGov/Galaxy, Ipsos and ReachTEL polls had Labor ahead 51-49 on the two-party preferred vote. Although traditionally more accurate, the exit polls were also disastrously wrong, with Nine’s YouGov Galaxy Exit Poll pointing to a decisive ALP victory with a swing away from the government of 2.4 per cent. But, while the public remained in the dark about the election bombshell that lay ahead, there are growing suggestions that both Bill Shorten and Scott Morrison were taken far less by surprise. Speaking this morning on the ABC’s Insiders program, columnist Nikki Savva said internal polling done by both Labor and the Coalition showed very different results to the public polls. Internal Labor polling predicted the party would not secure a majority government and would be hard pressed to win the election, commentators say. “The published polls were certainly very different from the internal polling the Liberal Party were doing … it was picking up big swings in Queensland,” she said. ABC journalist Patricia Karvelas agreed. “They could see what was happening. It just wasn’t being reflected in the public polls,” she said. “The Labor Party polling showed them behind in every key seat in Queensland. Strategists there were very worried about their polling. In terms of gaining seats, they weren’t confident.” Nine contributor Samantha Maiden wrote that internal ALP polling never saw the party getting above the 76 seats they needed to secure a majority. “While the result defied expectations of a Labor landslide, the ALP knew all along it was a close-run thing,” she wrote. “Mr Shorten knew all along. But even Labor was shocked by the size of the swing and the collapse of the primary vote that was far worse than its own polling.”

LINK

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/wrong-polls-blindsided-nation-but-shorten-knew-all-along/ar-AABza0W?ocid=spartandhp

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:45pm:

John Smith wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 2:41pm: I never said they got it wrong. I said the voters got it wrong. And that us YOUR assumption. So the voters got that wrong and the Labor Twitter feed wrong as well, because the didn't vote Labor. Or perhaps people really take no notice of Twitter for their opinions. ;)

did you think I speak with your assumptions in mind?  ;D ;D ;D Sorry dopey, but I can only give my opinion on things.

If you want your opinion known, you'll have to tell everyone yourself.

how about the guy who sank $850,000 on Shorten

John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:52pm:

did you think I speak with your assumptions in mind?

No


John Smith wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 2:52pm:

Sorry dopey, but I can only give my opinion on things.

And all without any backup on which to base your opinion. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

So in reality a nonentity trying to be an entity.

Australian Mainstream media is about as credible as American Mainstream media - they are left wing bias

They love to judge others by their self grandiosity but failed to live up to it

If they do not change - ScoMo will be the longest serving PM. Even I am not a fan of that

Maqqa wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 3:34pm:

Australian Mainstream media is about as credible as American Mainstream media - they are left wing bias They love to judge others by their self grandiosity but failed to live up to it If they do not change - ScoMo will be the longest serving PM. Even I am not a fan of that

You are aware of who has an almost monopoly on print media in this country, aren't you?

And who he was telling us to vote for, in increasingly alarmist ways?

mothra wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 3:46pm:

You are aware of who has an almost monopoly on print media in this country, aren't you? And who he was telling us to vote for, in increasingly alarmist ways?

Thos days are go. The left wing mobs are now controlling the media

mothra wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 3:46pm:

You are aware of who has an almost monopoly on print media in this country, aren't you?

Is that on masthead ownership or readership?

However the Conversation would seem to disagree with you.

"Newspaper ownership in Australia is particularly concentrated. The Australian section of the University of Oxford’s Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2016, which covers 26 countries, said that:

Australia has a high concentration of traditional media ownership dominated by News Corporation and Fairfax Media who together own the majority of national and capital city newspapers."

https://images.theconversation.com/files/148533/original/image-20161205-25645-jbdpxw.png

https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-level-of-media-ownership-concentration-one-of-the-highest-in-the-world-68437

Seems like a long way from "an almost monopoly".

But perhaps you have later figures?

Maqqa wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 3:34pm:

Australian Mainstream media is about as credible as American Mainstream media - they are left wing bias

why? because they reported on the polls?  :D :D

Newspoll got it very close with 49 51.

juliar wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 4:58pm:

Newspoll got it very close with 49 51.

Except it was reversed!  :D

juliar wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 4:58pm:

Newspoll got it very close with 49 51.

48.5 / 51.5

Gordon wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 10:06am:

Dnarever wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 9:54am: It is possible that the numbers changed in the Last week. News Ltd stepped up their propaganda campaign in the final week or two going. The right media going as far as to revive the shorten rape case in the shadows of the post. Also the right wing splinter party's attracted votes that went to the Liberals. The sneaky indirect Liberal vote has grown substantially. Nope. 6 years of negative polls about Shorten and a mistrust of Labor's tax grab. Australia didn't like the leader or the policies. Simple.

mistrust of Labor's tax grab.

There was no tax grab - just Liberal lies about a tax grab.

The real tax grab is the Liberals giving all our hard earned tax dollars to big business and the wealthy.

lee wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 4:04pm:

mothra wrote on May 19th, 2019 at 3:46pm: You are aware of who has an almost monopoly on print media in this country, aren't you? Is that on masthead ownership or readership? However the Conversation would seem to disagree with you. "Newspaper ownership in Australia is particularly concentrated. The Australian section of the University of Oxford’s Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2016, which covers 26 countries, said that: Australia has a high concentration of traditional media ownership dominated by News Corporation and Fairfax Media who together own the majority of national and capital city newspapers." https://images.theconversation.com/files/148533/original/image-20161205-25645-jbdpxw.png https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-australias-level-of-media-ownership-concentration-one-of-the-highest-in-the-world-68437 Seems like a long way from "an almost monopoly". But perhaps you have later figures?

You proudly post the fourth worst in the world and seem you think you supported you view. How bizarre.

Dnarever wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 7:21pm:

You proudly post the fourth worst in the world and seem you think you supported you view.

The Conversation is considered to be mostly academics and left leaning at that. So why should their view not be accepted? ;)

Although others disagree -

"Overall, we rate The Conversation Least Biased based on covering both the right-center and left-center politically, as well as covering evidence based topics. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to excellent sourcing of information and a clean fact check record. In fact, The Conversation is an IFCN fact checker."

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-conversation/

But perhaps you have other figures?

minarchist wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 5:09am:

I vote for the Liberal Democrats whenever I get the chance, but like many I thought Labor were going to win. The simple reason is that polling for the last 2 - 3 years on a 2PP basis was almost always in favour of Labor, even by surveys that can be considered to be LNP - leaning. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Does it have something to do with the scope of the people it surveys - is it too "city-centric" for lack of a better term? Bill Shorten was always runner up in the "Preferred PM" polls, even when Scott Morrison became leader. I'm assuming that this was probably one of the main reasons why the public favoured the LNP on Election Day.

Polls are mostly 'Media' based.
The 'Media' hasn't a clue about modern Politics anymore.
A Modern Politics that is moving ahead via the Internet scene now.  ;)

FD is on a winner!  ;D

Now the disgruntled Lefties spew the sag grapes and lemon sucking and denies and lies.

THERE WOULD have been a GIGANTIC TAX GRAB of people's savings by Labor to try to pay for the astronomical cost of their NBN Mark 2 - the CLIMATE CHANGE SCAM which would have achieved ABSOLUTELY NOTHING and would have PLUNGED Australia into the SEWERS of SOCIALISM.


https://assets.rbl.ms/14692376/980x.jpg
The Socialist garbage dump Australia would have become if Labor had won.

Jasin wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 7:28pm:

Polls are mostly 'Media' based.

what a stupid comment.

Mr Smith but they are and you know it.

There was a poll in an Ozpolitics thread last week with a range of results to choose from. The one at the bottom was Labor 49 - Libs 51. I ticked that one, and from memory, I was the only member choosing it

All others chose something higher in favor of Labor

Just goes to show - Ozpol members got it wrong too

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D659j-eU8AEOyoF.jpg

At the end NewsPoll was in the ballpark with 49 51 as they showed ScoMo closing in.

The final result is about 30 and 70.

The win in NSW set the trend in concrete.

People wanted Labor but they did not want Shorten as the polls indicated....In the end Shorten was a risk the public would not take!!!

:-? :-? :-?

minarchist wrote on May 19^th, 2019 at 5:09am:

I vote for the Liberal Democrats whenever I get the chance, but like many I thought Labor were going to win. The simple reason is that polling for the last 2 - 3 years on a 2PP basis was almost always in favour of Labor, even by surveys that can be considered to be LNP - leaning. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Does it have something to do with the scope of the people it surveys - is it too "city-centric" for lack of a better term? Bill Shorten was always runner up in the "Preferred PM" polls, even when Scott Morrison became leader. I'm assuming that this was probably one of the main reasons why the public favoured the LNP on Election Day.

The methodology of the pollsters is suspect.

Consider Newspoll. Newspoll's movement from poll to poll has been suspect for some time. If it was a true random sample each time, the movements from poll to poll should be greater than what we've seen.

Mark the Ballot has an excellent description of this here: Why I am troubled by the polls posted 8/5/19 (10 days before the election).

I might do a poll here.

Who wastes time on phone polls

Not me I hang up.

There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well.

That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge.
Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost

miketrees wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 2:34pm:

I might do a poll here. Who wastes time on phone polls Not me I hang up. There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well. That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge. Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost

You have forgotten Mr Trees, that the Libs booted out Turnbull because of the results in those same Polls.

The libs were also conducting their own polls, not being lazy bastards.

The electorate seems to think getting rid of Turnbull was the right move,,,, you know in that poll that actually matters.

Aussie wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 2:37pm:

miketrees wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 2:34pm: I might do a poll here. Who wastes time on phone polls Not me I hang up. There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well. That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge. Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost You have forgotten Mr Trees, that the Libs booted out Turnbull because of the results in those same Polls.

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Give it a break Turnbull is/was  a lefty **** >:( >:( >:( >:(

Intentionally

Intentionally

Voters were misled --- deliberately


False pretences

Deception


Media's been running the 'How did polls get it wrong' story way longer than a usual headline


Media of course would have had to be complicit in the deception


All the volunteers working their guts out


and LNP and Labor knew all along that Labor was a dead duck


Obtaining funds by deception


Taxpayers should be screaming for a refund of many millions


it was a fake election

the outcome was already known by Libs and Labor

Actually Fred,,, its interesting
have a look what has happened to any Prime Minister that tried to overdo the Carbon issue.
Gillard, gone
Turnbull , gone
Shorten ,,, fail to launch.

Rudd got turfed out just because he was such a sphincter.

So I have said all along I doubt that the world will actually ever tackle the problem (if there is one) because the people dont want to.

miketrees wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 2:49pm:

Actually Fred,,, its interesting have a look what has happened to any Prime Minister that tried to overdo the Carbon issue. Gillard, gone Turnbull , gone Shorten ,,, fail to launch. Rudd got turfed out just because he was such a sphincter. So I have said all along I doubt that the world will actually ever tackle the problem (if there is one) because the people dont want to.

Could not agree more  ;)

miketrees wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 2:49pm:

Actually Fred,,, its interesting have a look what has happened to any Prime Minister that tried to overdo the Carbon issue. Gillard, gone Turnbull , gone Shorten ,,, fail to launch. Rudd got turfed out just because he was such a sphincter. So I have said all along I doubt that the world will actually ever tackle the problem (if there is one) because the people dont want to.

That's because the world -- unlike globalists -- know that you don't bother trying to fix something that's not broken

miketrees wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 2:34pm:

I might do a poll here. Who wastes time on phone polls Not me I hang up. There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well. That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge. Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost

never been polled in my life. Must suck being you, getting it so wrong so often.

John Smith wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 6:08pm:

miketrees wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 2:34pm: I might do a poll here. Who wastes time on phone polls Not me I hang up. There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well. That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge. Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost never been polled in my life.

That's because nobody gives a tinker's cuss about what YOU think, Giovanni Dago. They see your name and say, 'nah, not representative of anything'.

Funny you guys have mentioned those phone polls!

I have had them and usually put in a lot of crap in my replies to confuse the party setting them up,

So if that is what the real polls are based on these days no wonder they were so far off the mark!

I actually heard a guy interviewed today who had a poll background years ago and he pointed out that using these automated phone polls (as in press 1 for something 2 for something else)  is why they are so wrong these days.

They are basically an el cheapo  polling method because of price restraints of paying for real people. This is against the old method of people ringing to do the poll based on the phone book listings and judging reactions etc.

Interesting!

Polls look at uniform swings without differentiating between seats - where elections are won and lost.
A swing to Labor in safe labor seats is meaningless for the election result.  But polls are too blunt to track movement in marginal seats where it all happens.

Frank wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 7:11pm:

John Smith wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 6:08pm: miketrees wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 2:34pm: I might do a poll here. Who wastes time on phone polls Not me I hang up. There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well. That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge. Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost never been polled in my life. That's because nobody gives a tinker's cuss about what YOU think, Giovanni Dago. They see your name and say, 'nah, not representative of anything'.

that must be why you and your mates keep mentioning my name  :D :D :D

.......they only poll the Leaners

John Smith wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 7:43pm:

Frank wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 7:11pm: John Smith wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 6:08pm: miketrees wrote on May 20th, 2019 at 2:34pm: I might do a poll here. Who wastes time on phone polls Not me I hang up. There is a good chance most other busy working people do as well. That leaves the Drongo John Smith and other similar drones that take an opportunity to have a whinge. Net result poor sampling,,, and as Labor are poll driven, they lost never been polled in my life. That's because nobody gives a tinker's cuss about what YOU think, Giovanni Dago. They see your name and say, 'nah, not representative of anything'. that must be why you and your mates keep mentioning my name  :D :D :D

Touché.

Ya see Frank (Sore End) the reality is far distant from how you see yourself, and I doubt many here read you other than to have a go at you.

;)

Swagman wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 7:46pm:

.......they only poll the Leaners

that certainly explains why sore end gets polled  ;D

Swagman wrote on May 20^th, 2019 at 7:46pm:

.......they only poll the Leaners

;D

They are the only ones who can answer the private phone call at 11 in the morning and stay on for 10 minutes.

The working class is at work.

As spotted today in a commentary in The Age:


"Australian mainstream values are centre-right, not left."

Spot on.

Until Labor realizes that, they will keep on losing.  :)

Working people have their retirement savings tied up in business investments,,, they now have an incentive not to bash business.

Welcome to the cooking show with celebrity chef Snitty the cassowary  :)