Here we go again. A month's worth of rain for the east coast in a few days.
And my wellies are leaking.
I blame Donald Trump and I think I should have a meltdown about it.

Not funny though. Expect to see people drive across flooded creeks etc.

You think that is bad, I forgot my umbrella today !!!!!!!!!

the met office has gone silly, now we have 'rain events'.

If people drive through a river ........... I won't be saving them.

Sprintcyclist wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 7:48am:

You think that is bad, I forgot my umbrella today !!!!!!!!! the met office has gone silly, now we have 'rain events'. If people drive through a river ........... I won't be saving them.

That's Jesus' job, surely. Our rain starts tomorrow.

I've been washing like crazy for the last few days. Only ranking till Sunday tho

Oh, 1stborn has a farmstay/camping trip on the weekend...I'll give her a boogie board as a sleeping mat :)

bogarde73 wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 6:22am:

Here we go again. A month's worth of rain for the east coast in a few days. And my wellies are leaking. I blame Donald Trump and I think I should have a meltdown about it.

I blame Jovial Monk's Global Warming hysteria.

I've just planted an expensive Protea bush in a corner of my front lawn that will probably drown if it gets too much water.

No hysteria about it. Just imagine in 20 years time ’Erbert will be blaming all and sundry because summers are so hot and winters so wet “and nobody told me! {sob!}

I heard Noah is building another boat.

I think its time all Qlders do just that..seems like its the chosen country..

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 8:25am:

No hysteria about it. Just imagine in 20 years time ’Erbert will be blaming all and sundry because summers are so hot and winters so wet “and nobody told me! {sob!}

You and your gullible ilk hope you're right, don't you?  ;D

It would disappoint you alarmist bedwetters if in 20 year's time this fraudulent nonsense had long-since been exposed as the brain-child of Socialists looking for yet another way to transfer Western wealth to the Third World under the pretence of helping these failed societies abandon fossil fuels for renewable energy sources.

;D ;D

cods wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 8:29am:

I heard Noah is building another boat. I think its time all Qlders do just that..seems like its the chosen country..

Winter rains means a warmer winter than usual.

AWG is real, the catastrophizing predictions are not.

Gordon wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 8:34am:

AWG is real, the catastrophizing predictions are not.

We are always at some point in the 800-year cyclical period of heating and cooling of the atmosphere, with the warming period being favourable to mankind while the cooling period is a bitch. 

Lord Herbert wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 9:18am:

Gordon wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 8:34am: AWG is real, the catastrophizing predictions are not. We are always at some point in the 800-year cyclical period of heating and cooling of the atmosphere, with the warming period being favourable to mankind while the cooling period is a bitch.

The physics of releasing so much stored CO2 into the atmosphere is obvious. What's not so obvious are the predictions of how much it can effect the climate.

Gordon wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 9:23am:

The physics of releasing so much stored CO2 into the atmosphere is obvious. What's not so obvious are the predictions of how much it can effect the climate.

No worries.

Have another Vegemite sandwich and relax.

AWG heats the globe, the extra heat causes more evaporation and that comes down as precipitation some time. Heat also melts ice, hence the state of the Arctic (and that in itself will effect climate right down to the tropics) and the retreat of glaciers and the 200million tons of ice Greenland is losing. Land based icesheets melting and the oceans warming cause sea levels to rise.

Those consequences of AGW are happening now.

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 9:40am:

AWG heats the globe, the extra heat causes more evaporation and that comes down as precipitation some time. Heat also melts ice, hence the state of the Arctic (and that in itself will effect climate right down to the tropics) and the retreat of glaciers and the 200million tons of ice Greenland is losing. Land based icesheets melting and the oceans warming cause sea levels to rise. Those consequences of AGW are happening now.

Not a problem.

We're technically advanced enough to deal with any consequences of the average global temperature to rise by a couple of degrees.

Stop losing sleep over it and go make yourself an anchovy sandwich with a couple of pitted olives in it.

Sheesh! You bedwetters.

What is bedwetting about describing what is happening now? Some are doing the right thing, even the Chinese! Trump is taking the US backwards—and coastal community are planning on moving inland since the money for sea defences is not forthcoming.

There has not been as much CO2 in the atmosphere for millions of years so your comforting belief in cycles is null and void, ’Erbert.

Tim Flannery! Now there was a bedwetter!

Only if you misinterpret what he said, as most do.

Anyway, what is happening is recorded in the official record even if neocon govts are now (Trumpy, turdfull) trying to hide the record.

We know what he meant, Jovial. Make your predictions far enough into the future that if they fail to come about, noone even remembers. Here's a prediction;  in roughly four and a half billiin years the energy in the Earth wil burn itself out. Prove me wrong!

Actually, the most often misquoted of Flannery’s sayings referred to a time of drought in NSW, RWNJs expanded that to mean “forever” but you may have noticed I do not quote Flannery.

[quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1495052533/19#19 date=1495066126]Only if you misinterpret what he said, as most do.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/it-pays-to-check-out-flannerys-predictions-about-climate-change-says-andrew-bolt/news-story/9e3f81590f07b4c04309981fdb6b251d?sv=efe28c39f730fc00b2f981e2578aedfa

In 2005, Flannery predicted Sydney's dams could be dry in as little as two years because global warming was drying up the rains, leaving the city "facing extreme difficulties with water".

Check Sydney's dam levels today: 73 per cent. Hmm. Not a good start.

In 2008, Flannery said: "The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009."

Check Adelaide's water storage levels today: 77 per cent.

In 2007, Flannery predicted cities such as Brisbane would never again have dam-filling rains, as global warming had caused "a 20 per cent decrease in rainfall in some areas" and made the soil too hot, "so even the rain that falls isn't actually going to fill our dams and river systems ... ".

Check the Murray-Darling system today: in flood. Check Brisbane's dam levels: 100 per cent full.

All this may seem funny, but some politicians, voters and investors have taken this kind of warming alarmism very seriously and made expensive decisions in the belief it was sound.

So let's check on them, too.

In 2007, Flannery predicted global warming would so dry our continent that desalination plants were needed to save three of our biggest cities from disaster.

As he put it: "Over the past 50 years, southern Australia has lost about 20 per cent of its rainfall, and one cause is almost certainly global warming ...

"In Adelaide, Sydney and Brisbane, water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months."

One premier, Queensland's Peter Beattie, took such predictions - made by other warming alarmists, too - so seriously that he spent more than $1 billion of taxpayers' money on a desalination plant, saying "it is only prudent to assume at this stage that lower-than-usual rainfalls could eventuate".

But check that desalination plant today: mothballed indefinitely, now that the rains have returned.

(Incidentally, notice how many of Flannery's big predictions date from 2007? That was the year warming alarmism reached its most hysterical pitch and Flannery was named Australian of the Year.)

Back to another tip Flannery gave in that year of warming terror. In 2007, he warned that "the social licence of coal to operate is rapidly being withdrawn globally" by governments worried by the warming allegedly caused by burning the stuff.

We should switch to "green" power instead, said Flannery, who recommended geothermal - pumping water on to hot rocks deep underground to create steam.

"There are hot rocks in South Australia that potentially have enough embedded energy in them to run Australia's economy for the best part of a century," he said.

"The technology to extract that energy and turn it into electricity is relatively straightforward."

Flannery repeatedly promoted this "straightforward" technology, and in 2009, the Rudd government awarded $90 million to Geodynamics to build a geothermal power plant in the Cooper Basin, the very area Flannery recommended. Coincidentally, Flannery has for years been a Geodynamics shareholder, a vested interest he sometimes declares.

Time to check on how that business tip went. Answer: erk.

The technology Flannery said was "relatively straighforward" wasn't.

One of Geodynamics' five wells at Innamincka collapsed in an explosion that damaged two others. All had to be plugged with cement.

The project has now been hit by the kind of floods Flannery didn't predict in a warming world, with Geodynamics announcing work had been further "delayed following extensive local rainfall in the Cooper Basin region".

The technological and financing difficulties mean there is no certainty now that a commercial-scale plant will ever get built, let alone prove viable, so it's no surprise the company's share price has almost halved in four months.

Never mind, here comes Flannery with his latest scares and you-beaut fix.

His job as Climate Commission chief, says Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, is to "provide an authoritative, independent source of information on climate change to the Australian community" and "build the consensus about reducing Australia's carbon pollution".

That, translated, means selling us whatever scheme the Government cooks up to tax carbon dioxide, doing to the economy what the floods have done to Flannery's hot-rocks investment.

See why I say Flannery is the right man for this job? Who better to teach us how little we really know about global warming and how much it may cost to panic?

Originally published as It pays to check climate predictions

Comments


sorry monk... but really???... ;D ;D ;D

its there in black and white no running away from what he predicted..

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 10:38am:

Actually, the most often misquoted of Flannery’s sayings referred to a time of drought in NSW, RWNJs expanded that to mean “forever” but you may have noticed I do not quote Flannery.

you did say he was misunderstood   at least I think thats what you meant..lolol..he was also paid a hell of a lot of money to get so much of it wrong wasnt he?.. :(

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 10:38am:

Actually, the most often misquoted of Flannery’s sayings referred to a time of drought in NSW, RWNJs expanded that to mean “forever” but you may have noticed I do not quote Flannery.

I do.

Good.

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 9:53am:

—and coastal community are planning on moving inland since the money for sea defences is not forthcoming.

That's wonderful news.

The seafront Bedwetters will be selling off their nice waterside properties at a huge bargain.

When can we expect to see these Bedwetters posting up their FOR SALE signs?

Gordon?

I suppose they'll all want to move to the higher grounds of Blacktown and Fairfield.

This was more communities on the east coast of the US but whatever.

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 9:40am:

the 200million tons of ice Greenland is losing.

Only 13,000 years to go and it will be melted.


Jovial Monk wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 9:40am:

Land based icesheets melting and the oceans warming cause sea levels to rise.

When will the acceleration occur? According to both tides gauges and satellite.

Tide gauges have trouble with land - subsidence being one.

Satellites have trouble with accuracy -
"A series of satellite missions that started with TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) in 1992 and continued with Jason-1 (2001–2013) and Jason-2 (2008–present) estimate global mean sea level every 10 days with an uncertainty of 3–4 mm."

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/

Lord Herbert wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 12:02pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 9:53am: —and coastal community are planning on moving inland since the money for sea defences is not forthcoming. That's wonderful news. The seafront Bedwetters will be selling off their nice waterside properties at a huge bargain. When can we expect to see these Bedwetters posting up their FOR SALE signs? Gordon?

I'll be buying :)

Gordy, aren't you afraid of Timbo's white pointers swimming down Allisom Avenue?

There's nothing wrong with a bit of flooding from time to time.


https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4169/34597359361_e23daba7d8_m.jpg

Just as long as its not, 'flooded with immigrants'.

Mr Hammer wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 1:19pm:

Gordy, aren't you afraid of Timbo's white pointers swimming down Allisom Avenue?

Or Mrs Timbo's white pointers. ;)


For Sale : Mind Bleach.

Setanta wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 7:54am:

Sprintcyclist wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 7:48am: You think that is bad, I forgot my umbrella today !!!!!!!!! the met office has gone silly, now we have 'rain events'. If people drive through a river ........... I won't be saving them. That's Jesus' job, surely. Our rain starts tomorrow.

Uhuh. And I drove through some spits of rain today. Seems that tomorrow is going to be our "rain event". Forecasts went from 40mm to 400mm to 200mm. Yet, we need to see it raining right now for the totals to reach 100mm before the weather clears by Saturday.

UnSubRocky wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 7:59pm:

Setanta wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 7:54am: Sprintcyclist wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 7:48am: You think that is bad, I forgot my umbrella today !!!!!!!!! the met office has gone silly, now we have 'rain events'. If people drive through a river ........... I won't be saving them. That's Jesus' job, surely. Our rain starts tomorrow. Uhuh. And I drove through some spits of rain today. Seems that tomorrow is going to be our "rain event". Forecasts went from 40mm to 400mm to 200mm. Yet, we need to see it raining right now for the totals to reach 100mm before the weather clears by Saturday.

and 100 mm is not a 'rain event'.

Where I grew up, that was a normal week !!!!

bogarde73 wrote on May 18^th, 2017 at 6:22am:

Here we go again. A month's worth of rain for the east coast in a few days.

Isn't that how it normally happens? If I wanted 1mm per day I would move to England.

Sprintcyclist wrote on May 19^th, 2017 at 2:21pm:

UnSubRocky wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 7:59pm: Setanta wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 7:54am: Sprintcyclist wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 7:48am: You think that is bad, I forgot my umbrella today !!!!!!!!! the met office has gone silly, now we have 'rain events'. If people drive through a river ........... I won't be saving them. That's Jesus' job, surely. Our rain starts tomorrow. Uhuh. And I drove through some spits of rain today. Seems that tomorrow is going to be our "rain event". Forecasts went from 40mm to 400mm to 200mm. Yet, we need to see it raining right now for the totals to reach 100mm before the weather clears by Saturday. and 100 mm is not a 'rain event'. Where I grew up, that was a normal week !!!!

I put "rain event" in quotations to show that I was quoting someone else. 100mm here in Rockhampton is a rare event. But it is not a rain event. I sat at home for the 330mm we had a few years ago. After it left, I thought that we could probably have a 500mm day sometime in my lifetime. 300mm+ in one day is considered record breaking.

freediver wrote on May 19^th, 2017 at 9:08pm:

bogarde73 wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 6:22am: Here we go again. A month's worth of rain for the east coast in a few days. Isn't that how it normally happens? If I wanted 1mm per day I would move to England.

I spoke to a meteorologist. He said that if every part of the country received only 1mm of rain per day every day, Australia would never be in drought. Meaning that the country has a severe mismanagement of water resources for when we receive periodical 800 to 1200mm of rain in coastal regions.

Well that was a fizzer. I don't know about where you live but it was only one day of moderately heavy rain here in the Southern Highlands NSW.
In fact, I've just been out mowing in the sunshine.

yes, we were ripped off.

Went for our usual cycle ride, painted for hours after that ........

UnSubRocky wrote on May 20^th, 2017 at 2:02am:

freediver wrote on May 19th, 2017 at 9:08pm: bogarde73 wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 6:22am: Here we go again. A month's worth of rain for the east coast in a few days. Isn't that how it normally happens? If I wanted 1mm per day I would move to England. I spoke to a meteorologist. He said that if every part of the country received only 1mm of rain per day every day, Australia would never be in drought. Meaning that the country has a severe mismanagement of water resources for when we receive periodical 800 to 1200mm of rain in coastal regions.

There are plenty of places where 1mm of rain could fall and the ground would be bone dry again in about 5 minutes. The good land would at best support sparse grassland.

Drought is more about the difference between evaporation/transpiration and precipitation, not absolute precipitation. England for example doesn't receive a lot of rain by our standards, but it turns into a bog when it does. The same rainfall on the equator would kill the rainforest.

bogarde73 wrote on May 20^th, 2017 at 3:18pm:

Well that was a fizzer. I don't know about where you live but it was only one day of moderately heavy rain here in the Southern Highlands NSW. In fact, I've just been out mowing in the sunshine.

The forecast made out as if it was the end of the world. 1stborn went up to a friends farm and we early canned it. I got sunburned at netball as it was cloudy when we got out of the car then full sun by 4th quarter.

freediver wrote on May 20^th, 2017 at 5:59pm:

UnSubRocky wrote on May 20th, 2017 at 2:02am: freediver wrote on May 19th, 2017 at 9:08pm: bogarde73 wrote on May 18th, 2017 at 6:22am: Here we go again. A month's worth of rain for the east coast in a few days. Isn't that how it normally happens? If I wanted 1mm per day I would move to England. I spoke to a meteorologist. He said that if every part of the country received only 1mm of rain per day every day, Australia would never be in drought. Meaning that the country has a severe mismanagement of water resources for when we receive periodical 800 to 1200mm of rain in coastal regions. There are plenty of places where 1mm of rain could fall and the ground would be bone dry again in about 5 minutes. The good land would at best support sparse grassland. Drought is more about the difference between evaporation/transpiration and precipitation, not absolute precipitation. England for example doesn't receive a lot of rain by our standards, but it turns into a bog when it does. The same rainfall on the equator would kill the rainforest.

Certainly, places that have general 40 degree summer days would see an evaporation of quite a bit of that rain. But if it rained 1mm of rain every day (365mm per year), the soil would soak up the rainfall under cloud cover, before the clouds disperse. Or perhaps we could have that 1mm of rainfall fall during the night, we would see better moisture retention. Our rainforests would suffer, though.

Alternatively, if our rainfall was 1mm per day more on top of our normal totals, we would see the entire continent drought and desert free inside 5 years.

1mm of rain does nothing in hot weather. It does not penetrate the soil. It doesn't get through the layer of dead grass or loose dirt or whatever is on top. It moistens it slightly, and then it dries out again. And plants don't have their roots on top of the soil.

freediver wrote on May 20^th, 2017 at 10:30pm:

1mm of rain does nothing in hot weather. It does not penetrate the soil. It doesn't get through the layer of dead grass or loose dirt or whatever is on top. It moistens it slightly, and then it dries out again. And plants don't have their roots on top of the soil.

Well, I have lived through years where we had 490mm of rain. Dry weather still had us green grass by the end of the year. Cold, dry winter and not much else. As dry as it was, our plants and grass still survived. Had our weather spread out over the year evenly, the grass would have looked even more green. Perhaps you don't know that 1mm is 5 minutes worth of rain. Or a downpour of heavy rain in 1 minute. Torrential in 30 seconds. I don't know what you are talking about.

Plants survive because of the occasional heavy rain. Even the "1 month of rain in a few days events" will last about a month. That's why you are advised to water your garden less regularly but for longer. The further the water soaks in, the longer it takes to evaporate. Instead of evaporating, it is there for the plants to use.

To create a one world 🌎 government you need an entire world problem ...

Invent Global Warming...

Tadaaaaaaa!!!!

Send us all of your money so that we can tell you what to do and how to do it  :D

And if that doesn't work try creating a massive immigration problem world wide!!!

UnSubRocky wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 2:33am:

freediver wrote on May 20th, 2017 at 10:30pm: 1mm of rain does nothing in hot weather. It does not penetrate the soil. It doesn't get through the layer of dead grass or loose dirt or whatever is on top. It moistens it slightly, and then it dries out again. And plants don't have their roots on top of the soil. Well, I have lived through years where we had 490mm of rain. Dry weather still had us green grass by the end of the year. Cold, dry winter and not much else. As dry as it was, our plants and grass still survived. Had our weather spread out over the year evenly, the grass would have looked even more green. Perhaps you don't know that 1mm is 5 minutes worth of rain. Or a downpour of heavy rain in 1 minute. Torrential in 30 seconds. I don't know what you are talking about.

freediver wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 7:59am:

Plants survive because of the occasional heavy rain. Even the "1 month of rain in a few days events" will last about a month. That's why you are advised to water your garden less regularly but for longer. The further the water soaks in, the longer it takes to evaporate. Instead of evaporating, it is there for the plants to use.

Freediver is correct
Even this time of year we average an evaporation rate of 3mm per day. To have healthy plants we need rain that has soaked deep enough into the soil that it won't evaporate as quickly

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 9:56am:

To create a one world 🌎 government you need an entire world problem ... Invent Global Warming... Tadaaaaaaa!!!! Send us all of your money so that we can tell you what to do and how to do it  :D

Have you heard of Godwin's law?
This says that the first person to mention the Nazi's loses the argument.
I propose a Barnacle's law, that the first person to invoke a world conspiracy theory to support their position has lost the argument.

The_Barnacle wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 11:47am:

I propose a Barnacle's law, that the first person to invoke a world conspiracy theory to support their position has lost the argument.

Delusional and funny. ;D ;D ;D

Still waiting  for all  this rain :-?


Or did the weather  ppl get it wrong. ...again ::)

The_Barnacle wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 11:43am:

Freediver is correct Even this time of year we average an evaporation rate of 3mm per day. To have healthy plants we need rain that has soaked deep enough into the soil that it won't evaporate as quickly

Do you know what happens with evaporation during the winter? It settles during the cooler periods of the day and night on other places. Not much of it blows away to the ocean. In fact, the great high-pressure systems have a tendency to push moist air onto the coast from the east and the north to the interior. Frosts and general vapor settle on the ground. I don't know what country you are from, but I have lived in the driest parts of the country, and I know that the flora can handle weak rainfall years. It is the crop growing areas that need the rainfall.

Francis wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 10:01pm:

Still waiting  for all  this rain :-? Or did the weather  ppl get it wrong. ...again ::)

I think some areas got good rain. While other places missed out.

freediver wrote on May 21^st, 2017 at 7:59am:

Plants survive because of the occasional heavy rain. Even the "1 month of rain in a few days events" will last about a month. That's why you are advised to water your garden less regularly but for longer. The further the water soaks in, the longer it takes to evaporate. Instead of evaporating, it is there for the plants to use.

Just for clarification, are you saying that a month's worth of rain in a day per month would also see drought from evaporation? For example, my town of Rockhampton gets about 900mm of rain every year. If on the first of the month, every month, we got 80mm of rain, and then none again until the next month, are you saying that we would also have drought conditions for the 28th/30th day (before the next day's rain)?

Quote:

Do you know what happens with evaporation during the winter? It settles during the cooler periods of the day and night on other places. Not much of it blows away to the ocean. In fact, the great high-pressure systems have a tendency to push moist air onto the coast from the east and the north to the interior.

Ah, so it blows into the desert, not out to sea? That's great.


Quote:

I don't know what country you are from, but I have lived in the driest parts of the country, and I know that the flora can handle weak rainfall years. It is the crop growing areas that need the rainfall.

So we would be one step short of a dustbowl?


Quote:

Just for clarification, are you saying that a month's worth of rain in a day per month would also see drought from evaporation?

No. I think that is normal. In the really heavy rainfall events, a lot is lost to runoff.

The inspiration behind this is that Rockhampton has residents that do not like it when it rains too much. We are so accustomed to long periods of time between rainfall. If it does not rain for a month, we like to see the change in weather for rainfall. But if we get rain more than once a week, people seem to complain.

Personally, I would love it if we got 100mm of rain over this week, just before the winter starts. But, if not, it would be great to get a repeat of that 180mm+ rainfall in one day that we did get last winter.