AUSTRALIAN house prices remain the most overvalued in the world, according to the latest quarterly ranking of global house prices by The Economist magazine.   :(

Based on a historical gauge of home prices to rents between 1975 and 2010, the magazine estimates that Australian residences are 56 per cent overvalued, exceeding the 54 per cent overpriced rate in Hong Kong and 48 per cent in France.   :(

''There may be good reasons for Australian prices to have risen so far, but people made similar, and ultimately incorrect, arguments for the run-up in prices in the West,'' The Economist said in a statement.


The report may stoke debate on whether the property market is a bubble waiting to pop.   :(

The Economist's survey of 20 countries follows house price data released this week, which showed capital city value fell nationally by 1.6 per cent in January, a result of higher interest rates and floods in Queensland and Victoria deterring buyers.

Australia's city home values fell 1.6 per cent, seasonally adjusted, to $465,000 after rising 0.2 per cent in December, according to RP Data-Rismark figures. Outside the major cities, they fell by 1.2 per cent in the month.

But countering the concerns over a bubble is the weakness in housing construction. Figures out this week showed new building approvals slumped in January by the most in more than eight years, although much of the drop may reflect disruption caused by widespread flooding in the month.

The Economist also noted that while Australia's economy had outperformed most in the developed world in recent years, the recent surge in house prices might be hard to justify.   :(

''In the years before the financial crisis, Australia's economy set a hard, fast pace for the rest of the Anglo-Saxon world,'' The Economist said. ''Its house prices rose faster than Britain's or America's (although Ireland's outstripped them all) and its current-account deficit gaped wider for longer. But its economy proved strong-livered. ''House prices fell from March 2008 to March 2009 (as measured by the weighted average of the eight state capitals), then resumed their rise. In the year to the first quarter of 2010, they jumped by 18.8 per cent!''

The Economist suggests the best way to limit the damage from a property bust is for regulators to exercise direct control over the amount of debt available to property owners and developers.

Well there you have it.  Australia has the most overvalued house prices, in the world.   :(  

not to mention new cars ect ect

Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera.

A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world.

What have we got here that I don't know about?

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 5^th, 2011 at 7:17am:

Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera. A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world. What have we got here that I don't know about?

I think we can blame rudd and gillard for some of that with their first home buyers bonus of $21000...it sure escalated the price of new homes for a few months.. trouble is when its stopped so does the market for new homes.. and the price of established homes goes up.because of a shortage.. there seems to be no balance.. its all or its nothing with this govt.

great new .. Howard, Rudd, Juliar .. and those developer and real estate parasites .. are so happy .. as their plans have been working well since the FHOG was introduced ..

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 5^th, 2011 at 7:17am:

Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera. A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world. What have we got here that I don't know about?

Chairman Dudd let in lots of chinese dudes who have access to cheap loans and who are fueling the bubble and keeping house prices artificially high !! That's all there is to it !!

cods wrote on Mar 5^th, 2011 at 7:48am:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 7:17am: Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera. A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world. What have we got here that I don't know about? I think we can blame rudd and gillard for some of that with their first home buyers bonus of $21000...it sure escalated the price of new homes for a few months.. trouble is when its stopped so does the market for new homes.. and the price of established homes goes up.because of a shortage.. there seems to be no balance.. its all or its nothing with this govt.

now the chinese have taken over with access to cheap loans they are willing to outbid the locals :( Dudd was responsible for this as well when he fiddled with the FIRB rules :(

yes and they want to fight inflation by raising up interest rates ..?? how business people suppose to buy a house if lowering their prices on all consumer products ?? how workers suppose to buy house with basic low wages .. ?? if the house prices kept on inflating by those incompetent politician ... look like overall are not balancing .. and still don't know what they are running to .. all will be taken by foreigners ..

bridonta wrote on Mar 5^th, 2011 at 12:00pm:

yes and they want to fight inflation by raising up interest rates ..?? how business people suppose to buy a house if lowering their prices on all consumer products ?? how workers suppose to buy house with basic low wages .. ?? if the house prices kept on inflating by those incompetent politician ... look like overall are not balancing .. and still don't know what they are running to .. all will be taken by foreigners ..

they are just trying to keep a floor under house prices at any expense until they can get voted back in again ;)

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 5^th, 2011 at 12:01pm:

bridonta wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 12:00pm: yes and they want to fight inflation by raising up interest rates ..?? how business people suppose to buy a house if lowering their prices on all consumer products ?? how workers suppose to buy house with basic low wages .. ?? if the house prices kept on inflating by those incompetent politician ... look like overall are not balancing .. and still don't know what they are running to .. all will be taken by foreigners .. they are just trying to keep a floor under house prices at any expense until they can get voted back in again ;)

yes they will trying everything to keep house prices from falling .. by importing cheap labour or food "made in China"

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 5^th, 2011 at 11:45am:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 7:17am: Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera. A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world. What have we got here that I don't know about? Chairman Dudd let in lots of chinese dudes who have access to cheap loans and who are fueling the bubble and keeping house prices artificially high !! That's all there is to it !!

:o
this may not be relevant but on TV the other night they showed a scan of the crowd watching the gay mardi gra and it was 90% asian

billy the fish wrote on Mar 6^th, 2011 at 7:07am:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 11:45am: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 7:17am: Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera. A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world. What have we got here that I don't know about? Chairman Dudd let in lots of chinese dudes who have access to cheap loans and who are fueling the bubble and keeping house prices artificially high !! That's all there is to it !! :o this may not be relevant but on TV the other night they showed a scan of the crowd watching the gay mardi gra and it was 90% asian

Pauline Hanson was right and they tried to shut her up by putting her in jail :( They should have put the polies in jail for allowing this to happen :( Kevin Duff should be in jail for sure !!

billy the fish wrote on Mar 6^th, 2011 at 7:07am:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 11:45am: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 5th, 2011 at 7:17am: Of course they are, it's Australia, not the French Riviera. A place that has little significance on a world scale, yet our house prices are one of the highest in the world. What have we got here that I don't know about? Chairman Dudd let in lots of chinese dudes who have access to cheap loans and who are fueling the bubble and keeping house prices artificially high !! That's all there is to it !! :o this may not be relevant but on TV the other night they showed a scan of the crowd watching the gay mardi gra and it was 90% asian

I think you will find that the composition of the crowd reflected both the demographics of the local participants and the international tourists staying in the city that night...

If anything, this is an indication of the value of the international tourism dollar in capital cities...

Queensland is pushing to abolish sales tax on property. Is this a vested interest or an invested interest to keep the property market artificially inflated. They will go to any length to protect their own investments. One could almost call it a conflict of interest, after all a politician cannot vote on a matter if they have an interest in the company.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh spends $1.2 million on investment units after election win

ANNA Bligh celebrated her last election victory with a $1.2 million plunge into the property market in the middle of the global financial crisis.

But the Queensland Premier insists she can't remember whether she lodged the bids for two high-rise apartments before or after her election win and guaranteed pay cheque for the next three years.

Property records show Ms Bligh and her bureaucrat husband Greg Withers paid $565,000 for a two-bedroom apartment and $609,000 for a three-bedroom unit in the same building in her South Brisbane electorate.

Property records put the sale date at March 30 and April 1, 2009 just after the March 21 poll but Ms Bligh yesterday said she could not remember the exact date of her bids.

The shopping spree has emerged after Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd and his millionaire wife Therese Rein's $3 million purchase of a Sunshine Coast weekender.

While former premier Peter Beattie had a frugal investment approach, Ms Bligh has commitments to four mortgages with the Commonwealth Bank, including her nearby family home bought for $290,000 in 1997 and another home nearby where her mother lives bought for $165,000 in 1995.

Ms Bligh had asked for $530 a week rent initially on the three-bedroom home, but then advertised the property as low as $490 a week. The two-bedroom was slashed from $430 a week to $360 a week.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-premier-anna-bligh-spends-12-million-on-investment-units-after-election-win/story-e6freoof-1226024708444

what_next wrote on Mar 20^th, 2011 at 5:40pm:

Queensland is pushing to abolish sales tax on property. Is this a vested interest or an invested interest to keep the property market artificially inflated. They will go to any length to protect their own investments. One could almost call it a conflict of interest, after all a politician cannot vote on a matter if they have an interest in the company. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh spends $1.2 million on investment units after election win ANNA Bligh celebrated her last election victory with a $1.2 million plunge into the property market in the middle of the global financial crisis. But the Queensland Premier insists she can't remember whether she lodged the bids for two high-rise apartments before or after her election win and guaranteed pay cheque for the next three years. Property records show Ms Bligh and her bureaucrat husband Greg Withers paid $565,000 for a two-bedroom apartment and $609,000 for a three-bedroom unit in the same building in her South Brisbane electorate. Property records put the sale date at March 30 and April 1, 2009 just after the March 21 poll but Ms Bligh yesterday said she could not remember the exact date of her bids. The shopping spree has emerged after Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd and his millionaire wife Therese Rein's $3 million purchase of a Sunshine Coast weekender. While former premier Peter Beattie had a frugal investment approach, Ms Bligh has commitments to four mortgages with the Commonwealth Bank, including her nearby family home bought for $290,000 in 1997 and another home nearby where her mother lives bought for $165,000 in 1995. Ms Bligh had asked for $530 a week rent initially on the three-bedroom home, but then advertised the property as low as $490 a week. The two-bedroom was slashed from $430 a week to $360 a week. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-premier-anna-bligh-spends-12-million-on-investment-units-after-election-win/story-e6freoof-1226024708444

no wonder why prices just kept on rising ..

bridonta wrote on Mar 20^th, 2011 at 9:53pm:

no wonder why prices just kept on rising ..

well lets hope it got flooded out and is now worth nothing.

speaking of property did anyone watch dateline tonight on SBS about the property market in China ??

http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/about/id/601007/n/China-s-Ghost-Cities


Quote:

Vast new cities of apartments and shops are being built across China at a rate of ten a year, but they remain almost completely uninhabited ghost towns. It’s all part of the government’s efforts to keep the economy booming, and there are many people who would love to move in, but it’s simply too expensive for most. Video journalist Adrian Brown wanders through malls of vacant shops, and roads lined with empty apartment buildings… 64 million apartments are said to be empty across the country and one of the few shop owners says he once didn’t sell anything for four or five days. So are the efforts to boost the economy going to end up having the opposite effect and creating a financial crisis for China?

Sounds familiar doesn't it !! Boost the economy by creating a property bubble. Chairman Dudd must have taken financial advice directly from his chinese financial advisors ;)

China found a way to rort the west and their capitalism by making us believe they are better off than they are. They built that crap to fool the west into thinking their economy is flourishing....nothing more than to boost their GDP.......it's a false economy. We are sucked into thinking that China's booming economy will keep us afloat.

We have a similar thing happening in Qld....high rise apartments.....empty, no one to rent them and no one to buy them.

This is not about the great housing price bust, but it's good news all the same.

It seems that Bligh might have met her match with Campbell Newman taking over from Langbroek. He makes mistakes but at least he gets things done. Much much better for Queensland.

Yoohoo!!!!! Lisa

I notice you haven't been back to say how wrong you were about house prices.

Never mind everyone but the criminal property spruikers knew you were.

Carry on with the drivel.......bye

I saw this on Jenmans website

http://www.jenman.com.au/news_alert.php?id=110

DISAPPOINTMENT WITH STEPHEN FAGAN
The sort of spruiker who gives spruikers a bad name.


Quote:

.....But, still, let's have a look at just one of Steve Fagan's investor clients and see what happened to them - over almost seven years - when they took the advice of Steve Fagan and his Princeton Property Group. Nick and Wendy are a delightful young couple. In 2004, after advice from Fagan's property group, they purchased an apartment in the western Sydney suburb of Blacktown. They paid $325,000. Three years later, in 2007, Nick and Wendy were buckling under the strain of their investment property. It was costing around $1,300 a month to hold the property. When they made enquiries about selling, they were told that the apartment was worth around $230,000, almost a hundred thousand dollars less than they paid for it three years earlier. Nick and Wendy contacted me, Neil Jenman, and asked for my help. I contacted Steve Fagan and asked him to discuss Nick and Wendy's case with me. When I met Steve, he told me that he was most "concerned" to hear that some of his customers were not happy. We also discussed his book and I pointed out the many errors in it. Fagan said he was shocked that his information was so wrong but he agreed to never make such claims again. That was a decent and proper thing to do. As for Nick and Wendy, well, Fagan had a simple solution: he would buy the property back from them for the price they paid for it ($325,000). He would also refund all their expenses. What a good man. At last, I thought, maybe I have met a decent spruiker. Fagan went further than just making a verbal promise; he repeated the promise on camera. At the time, the ABC's Australian Story was interviewing me about my work. Knowing that much of my work is negotiating with spruikers to compensate their victims, the ABC asked to interview a spruiker, in this case Steve Fagan. Sure enough, Fagan looked straight at the camera and repeated his solemn promise to buy back the apartment from Nick and Wendy. What a guy. In October 2007, Fagan was relieved to see that he had been left out of the episode of Australian Story, however he assured Nick and Wendy that he would honour his agreement. By this time, you probably know where this story is heading. That's right, almost four years after he made that solemn promise to Nick and Wendy, Fagan had not bought back their property. He had given Nick and Wendy years of broken promises and excuses. They had no choice but to sell their apartment on the open market. At the end of 2010, almost seven years since they bought the apartment from Fagan, they sold it for $269,000, a gross loss of $56,000. With expenses this lovely young couple have lost around $100,000 on their property investment deal through Steve Fagan. They now have a loan for the amount of their losses, almost $100,000 - and nothing to show for it. If Fagan's claim about property doubling every seven years was true, their apartment today, in 2011, should be worth $650,000. Of course, it's not.

>> sighs <<

Last Nail .. you MAKE money in real estate OUT OF LAND NOT AIR SPACE!!!!

Next time I'm in Melbourne .. we're definitely getting together for a coffee and a chat about real estate ok?

BTW has Bobby spoken to you yet?

Lisa Jones wrote on Mar 24^th, 2011 at 1:05pm:

Next time I'm in Melbourne .. we're definitely getting together for a coffee and a chat about real estate ok?

???????????

Lisa Jones wrote on Mar 24^th, 2011 at 1:05pm:

>> sighs << Last Nail .. you MAKE money in real estate OUT OF LAND NOT AIR SPACE!!!! Next time I'm in Melbourne .. we're definitely getting together for a coffee and a chat about real estate ok? BTW has Bobby spoken to you yet?

Yes he has :(

Yes I understand about the behaviour of real estate and share markets. Both should behave similarly but in different time frames. Still the same adage applies. Buy low sell high but not when Governments start intervening with bailout packages and tax concessions which causes distortion of the market.

Your opinions are reminiscent of someone who once said said that you should stick to blue chip shares because they are a safe bet and then what happened after the last dot come crash ?? No company was spared in the fallout ;)  

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Mar 24^th, 2011 at 1:16pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Mar 24th, 2011 at 1:05pm: Next time I'm in Melbourne .. we're definitely getting together for a coffee and a chat about real estate ok? ???????????

I've got relatives and friends in Melbourne Andrei. Whilst there .. I was going to catch up with Last Nail and Bobby for a coffee and a chat.

Do you wish to come too?

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 24^th, 2011 at 1:23pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Mar 24th, 2011 at 1:05pm: >> sighs << Last Nail .. you MAKE money in real estate OUT OF LAND NOT AIR SPACE!!!! Next time I'm in Melbourne .. we're definitely getting together for a coffee and a chat about real estate ok? BTW has Bobby spoken to you yet? Yes he has :( Yes I understand about the behaviour of real estate and share markets. Both should behave similarly but in different time frames. Still the same adage applies. Buy low sell high but not when Governments start intervening with bailout packages and tax concessions which causes distortion of the market. Your opinions are reminiscent of someone who once said said that you should stick to blue chip shares because they are a safe bet and then what happened after the last dot come crash ?? No company was spared in the fallout ;)

It isn't exactly the same though. Property behaves differently to stocks and shares. They're both beasts but they're different beasts (so to speak). Not all beasts are the same.

Ok so you now know also. Is he ok? I held back as long as I could before speaking to him.

Blue chip shares vs blue chip properties .. chalk vs cheese Last Nail.

All that’s required for house prices to fall is for people to think that house prices will fall.  Just in the same way that share prices can fall when they reach a peak.  Sellers look to get out first before everyone else gets the same idea.

But because it can take so long to sell a house, the stock of housing on the market can build up quickly.  And before sellers know it, they’re no longer the only house on the street for sale… they’ve got competition.  And as you know, in all areas of an economy, competition tends to drive down prices.

And let me tell you something, there’s a whole bunch of competition on the market right now.

Competition among sellers

This week SQM Research sent out its latest analysis of housing stock on the market.  As you’ll see in the table below, there’s been a huge increase in the number of houses up for sale:

Source: SQM Research

In fact nationally there has been a 46% increase in the supply of housing for sale, compared to the same time last year… 46%!

Talk about a housing glut…forget the housing shortage lies.  Australia has a huge excess of housing.  Incidentally, we did hear our old pal Peter Switzer banging on about the housing shortage last night on Sky Business Channel… it seems you can’t keep a good excuse down.

But what will the glut do to prices?  That’s right, push them down thanks to increased competition.  I can picture buyers now, “Why should I pay $500k for your house when there’s one down the road for $480k…”

Forget “large external shocks”, or a “doubling of unemployment or interest rates”, all it needs is increased competition… and we’ve got it.

But Ms. Irvine also ignores the fact that different sellers are in different circumstances.  Someone who bought a house for $100k, may be happy to accept $300k, whereas someone who bought for $350k may not be so happy.

But that won’t stop the first house from selling.  And it won’t stop house prices from falling just because someone chooses to hold out for a higher price – which may never arrive if buyers can get something similar for cheaper.

You see, the idea that something major has to happen in order for prices to fall is nonsense.  There doesn’t need to be a big bang catalyst to spark a house price rout.

All that’s needed is for the fundamentals of supply, demand, price and quantity to play out.  And that’s happening right now.

Interest rates are up 20%

But what about the idea that interest rates need to double?  Not true.  When interest rates are kept artificially low, it sucks in a whole bunch of borrowers.  Those that wouldn’t otherwise have borrowed are drawn into the market.

As with anything, artificially low interest rates create malinvestments.

And as Ms. Irvine correctly points out, it encourages lower lending standards too.

Because so many borrowers have been sucked in on low interest rates, it distorts the market.  But at some point the demand for borrowing will begin to dry up, and investors who would otherwise have put savings in the bank will look elsewhere for higher returns.

That creates a problem for a Ponzi banking system.  Banks need to keep filling the hopper.  They need more deposits and more borrowing to keep the Ponzi finance flowing.

When that slows down – as it has – the banks need to raise interest rates.  Simply so they can encourage savers to deposit money, or to encourage investors to buy their bonds.

Remember all the crazy offers the banks were making to attract deposits last year?  Yeah, of course you do.  That’s Ponzi finance in action.  It was an indicator of the market starting to tip over.

But here’s the thing.  If the bank has lowered its lending standards and kept interest rates low for too long, interest rates only have to rise marginally in order for it to have a big impact on borrowers.

It’s just like leveraged investing.  It works great when things are going your way… and… not so great when things are going against you.

For instance, the ANZ Bank reckons the median house price is $559,000.  Let’s say someone has taken out an 80% mortgage, borrowing $447,200.  An interest rate of 5% would mean repayments of $2,401 per month.

But should the interest rate increase to 7%, repayments increase to $2,976 per month.

That’s an extra $575 per month of after-tax money.

And if interest rates go to 8%, then you’re looking at monthly repayments of $3,282… an extra $881 per month.

“Oh, that won’t happen,” the spruikers say.  Really?  Too late, we’re almost there.  Mortgage interest rates got down to about 5% in 2008.  Today they’re above 7%.  And that’s why prices are on the way down.  That’s about a 20% increase from the low point.

“Oh, but people are ahead on their mortgages, the RBA says so.”  Don’t trust those figures too much.  Sure, plenty of people would have gotten ahead on their mortgages.  Especially as interest rates dropped in 2008 and 2009.  But trust me, it won’t take long for that benefit to be wiped out.

cont...............

Not when repayments are an extra $700 or $800 per month.

And don’t forget, those that are ahead are those that had mortgages prior to 2008… before interest rates were cut.  Those that were suckered in by the first-home buyer’s bribe won’t have any buffer, because they were conned into borrowing as much as they could afford, just at the point when interest rates were at the low.

Any interest rate increase will hurt them harder.  Each 0.25% rise in interest rates is an increase of 5% increase for someone who took out a mortgage when rates were at 5%.

Whereas it’s only a 3.5% increase for someone who took out a mortgage with rates at 7%.  Believe me, it may not seem like much, but it makes a whole lot of difference when you’ve overextended yourself with a giant mortgage.

Unemployment may be higher than you think

But what about the unemployment rate.  Again, don’t get too excited.  Sure, the unemployment rate is 5%.  But remember who counts as employed… anyone doing more than one hour of work per work… yeah, those people are gonna help prop up house prices!

For a start, consider that today about 28% of all employed people work part-time.

In 1978, it was only about 14%.

What does that tell you?  It tells you there has been a relative increase in people working part-time.  That much is obvious.

What else does it tell you?  Well, we’re not a labour force analyst so we can’t say for certain.  But we can take a stab at a guess or two…

Granted, more flexible working arrangements have played a part.  But we’ll guess it also means that people are now counted as part of the permanent labour force when previously they weren’t… therefore distorting Australia’s unemployment rate.

You can see that distortion in the number of unemployed people and the number of people not in the labour force.  Both these numbers have only increased by about 50% over the past thirty-three years.

In normal circumstances you’d expect those numbers to increase as the population increases.

But while there has been an increase it has been nowhere near as much as the increase in the number of people in the workforce.  Those employed full-time has more than doubled.  But importantly, the number of people working part-time has increased more than three-fold.

In other words, fiddling of the employment statistics is giving a distorted impression of the strength of the Australian economy.

Both of these facts tell you it won’t take a major shock to interest rates or unemployment to knock house prices down.  All it will take is a marginal move in either – thanks to the increased leverage from low interest rates.

Nothing I’ve written will stop the spruikers from carping on about the invincibility of the Australian housing market.  House prices are falling around their ears, yet still they make the same old tired excuses.

But really, the spruikers must learn to do better.  And if they insist on egging on the mainstream press to write anti-bubble stories, they should give them better and more convincing material than rubbish about “marvellous water views”.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/

what_next


You surely can't be right, Bligh is a Labour politician, they are not in business of real estate, they are to look after the little people.
I'am I completely wrong?

Its a good example of Working Class Australia V Consumer Class Australia.
Lets face it - it 'pays' to be in Real Estate and Building Industry more than it does to be a Consumer (sucker!) to it.

Working Class will always be ahead of the Consumer Class here in Australia, unlike in North America and the 'world' it controls.
You gotta be in it to win it and that's why they say "service" is terrible here in Australia, because you the Consumer, really are the 2nd class citizen.
I know there are many Australians who live by the American Standard (like the Televisual/Newspapers), but it is Consumerism advantage by default.

So if you want Free Petrol, Free Beer, Free Food, Free Cars, Free Houses, Free Travel, etc, etc?
Then make sure you are working in the right industry and especially an Industry that is getting ahead like the Art Industry, not falling behind, like the Sporting Industry (just to name two).

Personally, I live in a Garage, am looking for good-cheap land and am gonna build my own house outta Straw Bale with nothing but the need to pay a Plumber & Electrician. Saves me a huge Loan, gets me a superior house and keeps me out of financial slavery in the meantime.

Hint: As a Consumer in Australia "Only Suckers can't go without" Do you really need all that rubbish from China in the first place?

It_is_the_Darkness wrote on Mar 25^th, 2011 at 2:25pm:

Its a good example of Working Class Australia V Consumer Class Australia. Lets face it - it 'pays' to be in Real Estate and Building Industry more than it does to be a Consumer (sucker!) to it. Working Class will always be ahead of the Consumer Class here in Australia, unlike in North America and the 'world' it controls. You gotta be in it to win it and that's why they say "service" is terrible here in Australia, because you the Consumer, really are the 2nd class citizen. I know there are many Australians who live by the American Standard (like the Televisual/Newspapers), but it is Consumerism advantage by default. So if you want Free Petrol, Free Beer, Free Food, Free Cars, Free Houses, Free Travel, etc, etc? Then make sure you are working in the right industry and especially an Industry that is getting ahead like the Art Industry, not falling behind, like the Sporting Industry (just to name two). Personally, I live in a Garage, am looking for good-cheap land and am gonna build my own house outta Straw Bale with nothing but the need to pay a Plumber & Electrician. Saves me a huge Loan, gets me a superior house and keeps me out of financial slavery in the meantime. Hint: As a Consumer in Australia "Only Suckers can't go without" Do you really need all that rubbish from China in the first place?

I know people who live quite well on the dole. Their only worry is being breached by center link ;) LOL

Hey Lisa your favorite author has some updates for you ;)

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20110325/why-australia-is-set-to-follow-us-path-of-house-price-doom.html


Quote:

Why Australia is Set to Follow US Path of House Price Doom by Kris Sayce on 25 March 2011 Money Morning reader David wrote us an interesting note about the fall of house prices in the UK: “I remember living in the UK sometime around 2006 – 2007 and house prices, like Australia now, were overvalued.  As soon as property went on the market they sold at crazy prices… “Just as you predict here in this email house prices crashed about 18 months after their peak. “The media blamed it [falling UK house prices] on the world financial crisis, which did have an impact but they were already on their way down. “So many people forget a house is only worth what someone is prepared to pay for it.” As time passes there’s always the tendency to compress events.  Looking back now, it’s easy to think all the economic problems started in September 2008… around the time Lehman Brothers collapsed. But that’s not the case at all......

Alas TheLastNail,
I work to earn my place in this country.  :(

Just down the road, the Dole Bludgers are getting 'Brand New' Housing Commission TownHouses built for them, while other 'worthy', let alone "grateful" people pay higher rent everywhere else in Rosemeadow.
But we have a saying here in the South-West of Sydney: The "Housos" are the cultural refuse of the far North Shore.
Just like when I lived in Mt Druitt: it was the 'A-Holes' that played to the North Shore song of being labelled "Westies".
As for the North Shore of Sydney - well thats just a slice of the American influence now isn't it? :-?

In a testimony to the US Congress, Dr. Bernanke said:

"House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates… a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year."

In other words, in October 2005, Dr. Bernanke thought the US housing market would [cough] plateeeeeeeeau.  Sound familiar?

One year later, The Washington Post headlined, "Housing Slump Slows Economy".  It wrote:

"The cooling housing market sent a chill through the economy in the third quarter, helping to slow growth to its weakest pace in more than three years."

Interestingly, the Post also wrote:

"Heading into the final campaign stretch, President Bush [Ed note: remember him?] and other Republicans have emphasized the good economic news, such as the low 4.6 percent unemployment rate…"

[Needle scratches off record]

What's that?  The unemployment rate in the US was just 4.6% in October 2006.  More on that in a minute…

Then by the end of May 2007, MarketWatch reported that "U.S. home prices fall for first time since 1991".

It noted:

"U.S. home prices dropped 1.4% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline in national home prices since 1991, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index…

"A year ago, home prices were rising at an 11.5% pace.  Prices have been falling for the past three quarters."

During that period, what was the US unemployment rate?  That's right, it was around 4.5%.  That's lower than the current Australian unemployment rate.  It also tells you the US unemployment rate is just as rigged as the Australian unemployment rate.

At that time there was no major shock to the economy.  In fact, the first of the big financial firms to collapse - Bear Stearns - didn't collapse until March 2008.  A full year after house prices had started to fall.

And even if you take the first signs of trouble at Bear Stearns - the USD$3.2 billion "self" bailout of two of its hedge funds - that was only in June 2007… months after house prices started to sink.  And still long before the market received a genuine shock to the system.

As I wrote in yesterday's Money Morning, in response to Jessica Irvine's terrible Sydney Morning Herald article:

"All that's required for house prices to fall is for people to think that house prices will fall.  Just in the same way that share prices can fall when they reach a peak.  Sellers look to get out first before everyone else gets the same idea."

This is what's playing out in Australia right now.

Housing discounted by half!

Each day we're getting letters into the Money Morning mailbag with examples of falling property prices.  Money Morning reader Rick sent us a flyer showing a Port Adelaide development having slashed up to 59% off the original listing price of some properties.

Or this one with a 51% discount to the original price:

And if that wasn't a sign of desperation, check out what the vendor is prepared to do in order to shift a dog of a commercial property:

"A single waterfront commercial property - offered at a price representing extraordinary value discount by 59%.  All State Government ‘Stamp Duty Conveyance' to be paid by the vendor saving thousands of dollars."

Wow!  Desperate?  You bet it is.

Today, Money Morning reader Katie sent us an article from The Advertiser in Adelaide, "Glut gives homebuyers an edge":

"The number of homes for sale is at levels comparable to peak spring season, forcing greater competition, industry experts say."

You know what more competition means don't you?  That's right, it causes prices to fall.

moneymorning.com.au

more good news for the average wage earner who would like to enter the housing market

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 25^th, 2011 at 5:58pm:

In a testimony to the US Congress, Dr. Bernanke said: "House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates… a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year." In other words, in October 2005, Dr. Bernanke thought the US housing market would [cough] plateeeeeeeeau.  Sound familiar? One year later, The Washington Post headlined, "Housing Slump Slows Economy".  It wrote: "The cooling housing market sent a chill through the economy in the third quarter, helping to slow growth to its weakest pace in more than three years." Interestingly, the Post also wrote: "Heading into the final campaign stretch, President Bush [Ed note: remember him?] and other Republicans have emphasized the good economic news, such as the low 4.6 percent unemployment rate…" [Needle scratches off record] What's that?  The unemployment rate in the US was just 4.6% in October 2006.  More on that in a minute… Then by the end of May 2007, MarketWatch reported that "U.S. home prices fall for first time since 1991". It noted: "U.S. home prices dropped 1.4% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, the first year-over-year decline in national home prices since 1991, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index… "A year ago, home prices were rising at an 11.5% pace.  Prices have been falling for the past three quarters." During that period, what was the US unemployment rate?  That's right, it was around 4.5%.  That's lower than the current Australian unemployment rate.  It also tells you the US unemployment rate is just as rigged as the Australian unemployment rate. At that time there was no major shock to the economy.  In fact, the first of the big financial firms to collapse - Bear Stearns - didn't collapse until March 2008.  A full year after house prices had started to fall. And even if you take the first signs of trouble at Bear Stearns - the USD$3.2 billion "self" bailout of two of its hedge funds - that was only in June 2007… months after house prices started to sink.  And still long before the market received a genuine shock to the system. As I wrote in yesterday's Money Morning, in response to Jessica Irvine's terrible Sydney Morning Herald article: "All that's required for house prices to fall is for people to think that house prices will fall.  Just in the same way that share prices can fall when they reach a peak.  Sellers look to get out first before everyone else gets the same idea." This is what's playing out in Australia right now. Housing discounted by half! Each day we're getting letters into the Money Morning mailbag with examples of falling property prices.  Money Morning reader Rick sent us a flyer showing a Port Adelaide development having slashed up to 59% off the original listing price of some properties. Or this one with a 51% discount to the original price: And if that wasn't a sign of desperation, check out what the vendor is prepared to do in order to shift a dog of a commercial property: "A single waterfront commercial property - offered at a price representing extraordinary value discount by 59%.  All State Government ‘Stamp Duty Conveyance' to be paid by the vendor saving thousands of dollars." Wow!  Desperate?  You bet it is. Today, Money Morning reader Katie sent us an article from The Advertiser in Adelaide, "Glut gives homebuyers an edge": "The number of homes for sale is at levels comparable to peak spring season, forcing greater competition, industry experts say." You know what more competition means don't you?  That's right, it causes prices to fall. moneymorning.com.au more good news for the average wage earner who would like to enter the housing market

How you doing Pansi, haven't heard much from you recently?

Now, let me put some of this into context -
1) The Economy is 70% driven by Consumers.
2) The largest Consumer segment in the USA, as most other countries are the Baby Boomers
3) Consumers stop spending and start saving for retirement, at least 5 years prior to retiring.
4) The "official" Baby Boomer generation started retiring on January 1st, 2011
5) The Baby Boomer segment of the US Population is by far the largest, at around 80 Million.
6) The generation following the Boomers, which is Generation X, has a segment Population of around 45 Million.
7) Generation X have no where near the asset values & wealth of the Baby Bommers.

Now, can anyone tell me, where is the housing demand going to come from, particularly as the Boomers start dying enmass over the next 20-30 years?

Btw, similar Demographics apply in Australia!

<<How you doing Pansi, haven't heard much from you recently?>>

..........................................................................................

Hi Perce, I'm well and dandy....just pop in from time to time to check out my favourite threads (yours)  :)

Keep up the good work, we all need to be kept informed and up to date. Seems the financial predictions from 5 years ago were spot on.

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Mar 26^th, 2011 at 9:55am:

<<How you doing Pansi, haven't heard much from you recently?>> .......................................................................................... Hi Perce, I'm well and dandy....just pop in from time to time to check out my favourite threads (yours)  :) Keep up the good work, we all need to be kept informed and up to date. Seems the financial predictions from 5 years ago were spot on.

Regretably, Yes!

As time progresses, it seems more likely that we are looking down the proverbial barrel!

Keep well!

Take into consideration too that USA citizens tend to drop off at 70 years of age unlike Australians that kick into the 90's.

2.2 million live in poverty

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/More-Aussies-need-ACOSS-yahoo7finance-2141925027.html?x=0


first home buyers priced out of states ..

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/First-homebuyers-priced-abc-435036020.html


and stories kept go on and on year after year .. and those clowns in Canberra still have not realized .. yet .. why people just so sick of them one after another .. from Howard, Rudd, Juliar .. Brown ..  

Real Estate Industry
Forecasts Major Price Falls

“We anticipate a reduction in the median price from $601,500 in December last year to somewhere between 3-5% below that in March.” – Enzo Raimondo, CEO, Real Estate Institute of Victoria.

It seems it’s not just the so-called lunatic fringe saying the housing bubble has burst.

Yep, your editor has been called worse than a lunatic for saying house prices are over-valued.  It’s a good job we’re thick-skinned and can handle it.

After all, we’re not afraid to point fingers at others.  So it’s only fair we cop it on the chin when others attack us.  And we’re happy to cop it because ultimately, we know we’re right.

Make no mistake, a 3-5% drop in the median house price is big.  Especially if you’re mortgaged to the eyeballs.  For some, when you take into account the fees associated with buying and selling, it can mean the difference between walking away break-even or walking away with a big loss.

And I mean big.

A 5% drop from $601,500 is a fall of $30,075.

That’s a lot of money to lose when you’ve been told house prices always go up.

But as I’ve written before, the median house price number is misleading.  Because it only shows the value of houses that have sold.  It doesn’t include all those poor souls who are unable to offload the burden of an oversized mortgage on an overpriced house.

Throughout Australia there are thousands of people who just can’t afford to sell.

Thanks to the spruikers and government handouts, these people have locked themselves into a lifetime of servitude to the banks.

Why?

Too scared to take a loss

Well, imagine you bought a house for almost no money down at the peak of the market in 2009.  You put in a few grand of your own money, but most of the deposit came from the first home-buyer’s bribe.

Now you realise it was a mistake because you can’t afford the increase in interest costs, and you want to get out.  Only you can’t.  Because selling now means taking a loss on the property.

How can you lose when you didn’t put anything in?  That’s not fair.  But that’s what happens when you’re suckered in by bankers and spruikers.

Not only that, but because you’re in negative equity once you sell you’ll still owe the bank cash for the shortfall.  Not forgetting the agent’s fees and removalists and coming up with a deposit for a rental property.

What are the alternatives?  I mean, there certainly aren’t any savings to draw from because the mortgage is such a burden there isn’t any spare cash to save.

All the home owner can do is either resign themselves to living in debt-ridden poverty – in a big house – or try and get a personal loan from the bank to cover all the expenses.  To be honest, that’s probably the best option.

But few will take it.  They’ll prefer to wait until the value of housing has fallen even further and the negative equity is even larger.  At that time, with higher interest rates, they’ll have no choice but to bail out.

Not a day goes by without tales of personal housing disasters hitting the Money Morning mailbag.  Most of them I can’t reprint here for fear of identifying the writer.

But here’s a classic example:

“My brother is looking at buying his first house this year.

“He has his eyes on a place in Coburg / Preston that is being sold via private sale.

“The owners tried to sell it last year at auction with a reserve of $795K but it didn’t sell.

“The owners now want $680-700K for it.

“My brother got an independent valuer in on the weekend who valued it at around $630-650K.”

This is a key point.  Houses like this have been massively overvalued.  We’re sure in this case the vendors saw a similar house in the street selling and thought, “Ours is better than that”, or “If they got that for theirs, we’ll get this for ours.”

Twelve months later, realisation is setting in that house prices were stupidly high.

cont.....

Even if they get the top-end of their asking price, it’s still more than a 10% reduction.  But if they’re not careful, they’ll be lucky to even get the valuer’s price by the time the market crash has finished.

Then there was this letter:

“In regards to the falling house prices, you are spot on the mark. My wife and I are just about to put our house on the market and we will be lucky to get what we paid for it 12 months ago after putting an extra 20K into it.

“We live in ______ on the coast just east of ________ in Qld. Both places next door to us are for sale and there are ~70 houses for sale in ______ between 400 - 450K (hopefully our price bracket).”

So much for “marvellous water views”

Or this one, also from Queensland:

“As of Saturday 5.30 pm, Buderim, I have direct personal experience to support your contention that Aus. house prices have collapsed.

“A beautiful, tasteful, 4 bed, 2 bath house with a view to die for, magnificent landscape garden, recent kitchen and bathrooms, terraces, etc, on a 2,500 sq mtr lot, in a highly sought after area of Buderim was auctioned by NEXT.  Only one real bid of A$750K, passed in!  I believe sold post auction for no more than 850K.  Point is this house has been for sale since last September, when it was marketed at over 1.5 Mil.”

Ah, a “view to die for”.  That would be the equivalent of Jessica Irvine’s “marvellous water views”.  Well, it hasn’t done much for this home.  Almost a 50% drop in the asking price.

It shows you even places with a view can become overpriced.  And that places with a view can suffer catastrophic price falls.

But why would someone take such a huge cut?

We can only guess.  Our guess is you’ve got a whole bunch of people who bought in thinking prices would always go up.  They thought there would be a greater fool who would pay an even higher price.

They probably even used equity against another property as the deposit.

But the greater fool investment strategy will always end messily.

As I say, there are many more stories coming through each day.  But that’s not the only thing.

Where are the cashed-up investors now?

There’s a remarkable silence by the property investors.  As recently as twelve months ago, we’d receive letters from property investors saying, “I’m looking forward to house prices falling because then I can buy even more properties, so bring it on sucker.”

But now, not a single word from them.  They’ve obviously just realised their so-called wealth isn’t wealth at all.  It’s just equity in property.  And equity in property isn’t wealth.

Equity in property is just a pre-approved loan from the bank.  Because as soon as you withdraw equity it becomes debt… how can that be wealth?  It isn’t.  Besides, as you know, even pre-approved loans are subject to approval.

And right now, we’ll guess banks won’t lend against existing properties because they’re worried about falling prices.  This lack of credit growth is what’s helping push prices lower.

But that’s what happens with Ponzi finance.  It becomes self-fulfilling as the banks see the writing on the wall and don’t want to be the one left holding the baby [Ed note: apologies for the mixed metaphor!]

Think about it, how do banks decide on the valuation of a property?  That’s right.  They require a valuation.  And as our reader noted above, the valuers are pricing down valuations.

cont.....

Lies, damned lies and statistical lies

But that hasn’t stopped the spruikers from keeping on keeping on.  In a recent article for Switzer.com.au, Comsec economist Craig James writes:

“There is an old adage in economics – there are lies, damned lies and statistics.  And when it comes to the issue of housing valuations and affordability, there is a lot of data that can be categorised in the two former terms and much less in the latter.”

So what does Mr. James do?  That’s right, he quotes the following statistic:

“However Glenn Stevens did say something else: ‘The other thing I’ll say is that it’s quite often quoted very high ratios of price to income for Australia, but if you get the broadest measures, a country-wide price and a country-wide measure of income, the ratio is about 4.5 and it hasn’t moved much either way for 10 years. And that is higher than it used to be, but it’s actually not exceptional by a global standard as far as I can see.’

“What he was quoting here was the analysis by Rismark International and RP Data on housing affordability. To measure home affordability you need to compare all incomes across Australia with all home prices across Australia – city and regional. Unfortunately, a raft of industry bodies don’t do that and it produces spurious outcomes.”

It seems Mr. James has rather missed the point of the adage about “lies, damned lies and statistics.”

The adage is ironic, it’s not literal.  It’s not a statement to say that statistics are truthful compared to lies and damned lies.  The meaning of the statement is that statistics are worse than lies and damned lies.

That you can trust a statistic less than any lie.  To make it easier to understand, perhaps we could make the statement more literal: There are lies, damned lies and statistical lies.

There.

Because you can take a statistic and do anything with it to support your argument.  Hence it’s worse than lies and damned lies.

So for Mr. James to rely on a statistic from companies that provide data to the housing industry misses the point by a wide margin.

Mr. James winds up with:

“The bottom-line is that Australian home prices aren’t so extraordinary after all. Once foreign investors start focusing on the facts rather than fiction then perhaps a few more dollars will start flowing Down Under. Because it is a concern abroad, and it’s not being helped by misinformation.”

Really?  Perhaps Mr. James should look at some of the other statistics he’s so fond of.  For instance, the median house price in the United States is… $202,000.

That’s less than half the median house price in Australia.  About a third of the Melbourne median house price.

But, then again, that’s just a statistic too.  So do with it what you will.

But we don’t need statistics to know that Australian house prices are overpriced.  However much the spruikers and bankers try to talk it up, the slowing and contracting of credit in Australia will be the ultimate reason for the continuing house price crash.

It’s getting worse by the day.  And we’re getting more letters by the day to prove it.

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/

Vote Independent and have your 'local' area looked after first.
Look at Sydney with Clover Moore and how happy they are.
Look at Lake Macquarie and how they loved their 'independence' especially during the water crises.

Vote Independent and your local area will be looked after before the State and before the Federal level which looks after Overseas first.

Australians are so daft sometimes, they just 'ding-dong' between ALP & Liberals.

More good news on the housing front.
.....................................................

Melbourne home property prices plunge

MELBOURNE'S property bubble is bursting, with $400 a day wiped off the average house price in the past three months.

After peaking at $601,000 late last year, the median price has fallen to $565,000 - down $36,000.

The 6 per cent slump is the biggest quarterly drop in more than two years and one of the biggest the Real Estate Insititute of Victoria has recorded since the height of the global financial crisis.

It has raised hopes for buyers desperately trying to break into the market and will create speculation over whether a crash is coming.

REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said that although it was normal for prices to ease at the start of the year, it was clear the market had turned after an astonishing period of runaway growth.

"The honeymoon for sellers is over," he said.

Housing Industry Association economist Matthew King said Melbourne's "red hot" 20 per cent growth last year was ending because of the sting of seven successive interest rates and prices that had become out of control for too many people, turning them away.

"We would expect very little, if any annual growth this year," Mr King said.

"Mortgage lending rates are above average again and that has taken the wind out of the sales.

"Of course certain areas will continue to perform better than others. You would expect inner suburbs to still do well."

Affluent areas were hammered in the March quarter. Essendon suffered the biggest hit, down 18.2 per cent to $900,000.

Balwyn slid 8.4 per cent to $1,475,000. Brighton slipped 7 per cent to $1,508,500.

It is the worst performance for Melbourne homes since a 6.7 per cent fall in the December quarter of 2008. However, the median is still 8.7 per cent higher - $45,000 more - than in April 2010.

Units, apartments and town houses dropped 4.2 per cent for the quarter to $460,000. Melbourne is still the second least affordable city behind Sydney.

Mr Raimondo warned vendors would need to adjust their expectations.

For suburbs recording at least 30 sales in the past three months, Kew was the dearest at $1,945,000.

Most affordable were Wyndham Vale ($307,475), Cranbourne ($325,000) and Werribee ($327,000).

Regional Victoria's median is stable at $320,000.

Yesterday's latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer House Price Expectations report confirmed people are more pessimistic about the outlook for values.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/melbourne-home-property-prices-plunge/story-e6frf7jo-1226039922655

Jees that Enzo Remaindo is a real smart dude when it comes to real estate. He always predicts things after they have happened :D LOL

Just only a few weeks ago the REIV was rabbiting on about record median house prices in Melbourne :D LOL

I suppose they have to get paid for saying something even if it is completely useless information ;) LOL

Sir lastnail wrote on Apr 16^th, 2011 at 2:41pm:

Jees that Enzo Remaindo is a real smart dude when it comes to real estate. He always predicts things after they have happened :D LOL Just only a few weeks ago the REIV was rabbiting on about record median house prices in Melbourne :D LOL I suppose they have to get paid for saying something even if it is completely useless information ;) LOL

Nail,
I believe that many people on this forum owe you a big apology.
They rubbished you for more than one year when you said
that house prices would crash.
Where are all those doubting Thomas's now.
e.g. where's Longweekend?

Bobby. wrote on Apr 16^th, 2011 at 5:37pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Apr 16th, 2011 at 2:41pm: Jees that Enzo Remaindo is a real smart dude when it comes to real estate. He always predicts things after they have happened :D LOL Just only a few weeks ago the REIV was rabbiting on about record median house prices in Melbourne :D LOL I suppose they have to get paid for saying something even if it is completely useless information ;) LOL Nail, I believe that many people on this forum owe you a big apology. They rubbished you for more than one year when you said that house prices would crash. Where are all those doubting Thomas's now. e.g. where's Longweekend?

remember what Joseph Goebbels once said which applies here equally as well ;)


Quote:

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Good post Nail - nothing has changed & people won't realise until
they arrive "home" one day & their furniture is on the street
& the locks are all changed with 2 burly security guards
standing by the front door.

Bobby. wrote on Apr 16^th, 2011 at 6:04pm:

Good post Nail - nothing has changed & people won't realise until they arrive "home" one day & their furniture is on the street & the locks are all changed with 2 burly security guards standing by the front door.

yes history has a habit of repeating especially the history of bubbles bursting ;) LOL

Sir lastnail wrote on Apr 16^th, 2011 at 6:10pm:

Bobby. wrote on Apr 16th, 2011 at 6:04pm: Good post Nail - nothing has changed & people won't realise until they arrive "home" one day & their furniture is on the street & the locks are all changed with 2 burly security guards standing by the front door. yes history has a habit of repeating especially the history of bubbles bursting ;) LOL

The real problem is that this is no longer the real question. i.e.
What type of place should be be living in?
The answer is clear.
High rise housing estates next to all railway stations.
Allow building permits around all railway stations &
many people will have somewhere - close to transport - to live.
They won't need a car to congest the roads.

Instead Australia is all about getting your 1/4 acre or 1/8 acre area of land.
This is becoming unobtainable at today's prices.
The average cost of a house in Melbournes 60 top suburbs
is over $1 million.
The prices will go down as high rise estates
- just like overseas - in all big cities - mark the skyline because
councils & Govt will have to find places for our booming
population to live.

have you noticed that there was hardly a word spoken about the bubble collapsing in any of the media ;)

but when house prices go up they will report it all day long on every hourly news service. It's unbelievable how biased the media is when it come to house prices. Why not just not say anything whether it is good or bad !!

Quote:

Australian House Prices, Most Overvalued In World.

Most of the world just went through a huge correction which put prices back into a realistic value.

We missed the correction which was a sign of our economic strength.

Just like it was in the early 1990's.

The reality at that time was that in order to remain competitive with the world economy we needed to have that correction - we had a PM who was stupid enough to state the obvious and has been remembered well for it.

While we look to be in good order this time we still would have benefited in some areas had our market been corrected to a realistic value.

In the 90’s their was not much option as the economy looked like it was going to stagnate till something happened.

The correction we eventually had at that time led to about 17 years of economic growth.

Have I missed something? Have House prices plummeted suddenly?
Of course the Media wouldn't promote that sort of stuff, its as rigged as Murdoch making sure Rudd was never gonna kick on as PM.

Funny, I was just in Berrindale a few days ago looking at property/housing. (apparently the council prefers 'brick only' for building. ::)) I just mentioned "bit cold down here for brick don't you think?" emphasising the words "don't you think?".

Even along the Sapphire Coast area of NSW there is hardly any house for sale under $200,000. Most average $400,000+ and many at $600,000+. Found one place under $200,000 but you have to pay $5,200 pa for not actually owning the land. :P

Oh well, back to the Garage I go.

Sir lastnail wrote on Apr 18^th, 2011 at 12:18pm:

have you noticed that there was hardly a word spoken about the bubble collapsing in any of the media ;) but when house prices go up they will report it all day long on every hourly news service. It's unbelievable how biased the media is when it come to house prices. Why not just not say anything whether it is good or bad !!

nail - the media under reports real estate downsides.
LOTS of their advertising income comes form the realestate sector.
If they painted the real estate as a bad investment at times, they'ld be foregoing advertising income.

At times, every investing sector must be a bad buy/time to sell

that's right .. that's why prices kept climbing .. dragging other cost of livings upward .. up to the point all go nuts ...

The good old days of making your fortune from buying and selling houses is over, so let's get the stupid Aussie's sucked into US real estate that isn't worth shite lol

......................................................................................

Australian investors sought to buy US real estate

AUSTRALIAN investors are being asked to pump millions of dollars into high-risk US houses, the same assets that triggered the global financial crisis.

In the first listed investment of its type, financial planner Dixon Advisory is seeking $80 million from mum-and-dad investors to purchase the heavily discounted homes.

House prices in the US have suffered a five-year slump and remain up to 60 per cent below their 2006 peak.

The collapse in US house values led to millions of people walking away from their homes, which under US law left the banks and other lenders with responsibility for their clients' debts.

It was this avalanche of mortgage defaults that started the world-wide collapse of the wholesale financial system and triggered the global crisis.

According to Dixon Advisory, it plans to buy up homes in the New York metropolitan area, particularly family homes in Hudson County and New Jersey.

Home loans, savings accounts and more

The pool of houses is expected to produce an annual return of more than 8 per cent, based on estimated rental income. However, the company has not detailed the forecast return it will pass through to investors or its fees.

Dixon Advisory's directors include high-profile financial advisers Daryl Dixon and Max Walsh. The plan will be marketed to individual investors and self-managed superannuation funds.

"Valuations for US property in certain areas, with strong fundamentals such as the New York metropolitan area, have become very attractive," Dixon managing director Alan Dixon said yesterday.

"At the same time, housing affordability measures in the US are at record highs and rents have been mostly stable throughout the period, resulting in very attractive yields to investors currently.

"This, coupled with the record high Australian dollar, provides a unique investment opportunity for investors to gain access to this highly attractive asset class."

The property fund plans to issue units at $1.60 each, compared with a net asset value of $1.57, with a minimum subscription per person of $2000.

Dale Gilham, analyst at fund manager Wealth Within, said there were benefits and risks associated with the US housing market. The benefits include potential capital gains, if prices recover, and higher than normal rental income.

The risks include currency exchange and growth forecasts that assume the US economy is improving.

Mr Gilham said he was wary, as the investment "has not been tried and tested over years".

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/investors-sought-to-buy-us-real-estate/story-e6frfmci-1226040754283#ixzz1Jug90zD7


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/investors-sought-to-buy-us-real-estate/story-e6frfmci-1226040754283#ixzz1JufBBG7w

..............................................................

TIP No.1....The American economy is not about to improve any time soon.

Land sales fall to lowest in decade on high costs

AUSTRALIAN residential land sales have reached their lowest level in a decade, after almost halving from a year earlier, a housing report shows.

The HIA-RP Data Residential Land Report found the volume of land sales fell sharply in the December 2010 quarter, with sales down by 40.4 per cent compared to the same quarter in 2009.

The fall in sales comes as the weighted median land value for Australia grew by 4.1 per cent in the quarter to $194,161, the report found.

Over the year to December 2010, the median value was up by 5.9 per cent.

HIA economist Matthew King said the results highlight the ongoing deterioration in new home affordability.

"The sharp drop in the volume of land sales signals a very weak 2011 for new home building," Mr Kind said.

"Quite apart from the considerable damage wrought by the interest rate hikes of last November, new housing continues to sag under the weight of the excessive cost of serviceable land."

Sydney remains the most expensive place to buy residential land, with a median value of $269,000.

Other expensive areas to buy land include the Sunshine Coast, with a median value of $240,000 and Melbourne coming in at $220,000.

Melbourne also recorded a 50.1 per cent decline in land sales in the December quarter, compared with the same quarter in 2009.

"The half year result was also extremely weak, with land sales 58.8 per cent lower in the six months to December 2010 compared with the six months to December 2009," the report said.

The report also found that residential land values in capital cities had grown by 5.9 per cent in the December quarter and 8.2 per cent higher in annual terms.

Across the capital cities, Melbourne saw the highest growth in land values, rising by 13.5 per cent in the quarter, while Sydney was up by 3.6 per cent.

Hobart saw a 14.5 per cent drop in land values in the month.

The three most affordable land markets in the country are Southern Tasmania, Murray Lands in South Australia and northern South Australia, all of which had median lot prices of $80,000 or less, the report said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/land-sales-fall-to-lowest-in-decade-on-high-costs/story-e6frfmd0-1226040958847#ixzz1Jui3hdIm


I wonder if the actual values rose, more likely the asking price rose.

Half-priced millionaires’ row

“Four years ago, before the global financial crisis hit, 199 Hedges Avenue fetched $17.5 million.  This month the four-bedroom, six bathroom, beachfront home [Ed note: marvellous water views?] in Mermaid Beach reportedly sold for almost $8 million.”

A quick bash of the Canon LS-100TS calculator tells us that’s a price drop of – [gulp] – 54%!

Amusingly, the articles states, “Mr Newlands [chairman of the Real Estate Institute of Queensland, Gold Coast] said property on Hedges Avenue would always remain popular and at the high end of the market.”

Obviously not popular enough for the seller who has taken a 54% bath.  That’s where the spruikers have made their fatal error: assuming higher prices are sustainable because an area is popular.

Then Money Morning reader Natalie dropped us this email saying:

“Did I hear David Airey from Real Estate Institute of Australia wrong?  The ABC read his statement as saying there is ‘no housing shortage in Australia.’”

Here’s a transcript of Airey’s comments:

“I don’t think there’s been a bubble, and I don’t think there’s any bubble to burst.  The indicators are that this has been a very slow softening but with the huge increase in the number of established homes for sale added to properties off the plan sales continuing to rise, we’ve just seen a lot of stock which isn’t moving.”

Property spruikers have to tread a fine line.  Using their own supply-and-demand theories for why property prices had to rise, they’ve backed themselves into a corner.

Because using the same supply-and-demand argument you would logically have to say prices will fall… Instead the spruikers have to keep running with the “there’s no bubble” argument.  Even if it means ditching the claim about a housing shortage.

That way they can claim prices didn’t really go up – even though they said they did – and therefore if prices didn’t really go up then they really can’t go down.

Even though the proof is evident in Queensland where prices have fallen by 50%, and even Melbourne where prices fell 6% in just one quarter!

For some reason, every time a spruiker talks we keep hearing circus clown music!

And finally, we find we’re in the strange position of agreeing with a banker.  Bank of America [NYSE: BAC] CEO, Brian Moynihan is quoted saying:

“It’s sobering to think, but some people shouldn’t be thinking of (their home) as an asset.  They should be thinking of it as a great place to live.”

We couldn’t agree more.  We’ve said it for years.  And mostly we’ve been ridiculed for saying it.  But that won’t stop us.  Owner-occupied housing isn’t an investment.  It’s an expensive consumption item.

Once you ditch the idea that a house is an investment you’ll realise it’s just not worth paying the current ridiculous Ponzi credit-fuelled prices that houses are selling for right now.

excerpts from moneymorning.com article

From David what a tool Koch 'reject the recession', filmed in 2009.

The timing was very wrong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgtJRKBZu50

nails....and lisa, you guys might be interested in this:

Housing debate in June

Anyway, last week we mentioned we’d been invited to appear at a housing debate in June.  According to the organiser of the event, there will be six people on the panel.  On the housing-bubble side will be Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, David Collyer from Prosper – the group organising the buyers’ strike – and your editor. (editor of money morning)

On the no-housing-bubble side will be AMP economist Dr. Shane Oliver, Mr. Harley Dale from the Housing Industry Association, and Mr. Christopher Joye from property index firm Rismark.

We’ve been told the date to pencil in is 7 June

moneymorning.com

I'll let you know where and when the debate is closer to the date.

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Apr 27^th, 2011 at 7:39pm:

nails....and lisa, you guys might be interested in this: Housing debate in June Anyway, last week we mentioned we’d been invited to appear at a housing debate in June.  According to the organiser of the event, there will be six people on the panel.  On the housing-bubble side will be Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, David Collyer from Prosper – the group organising the buyers’ strike – and your editor. (editor of money morning) On the no-housing-bubble side will be AMP economist Dr. Shane Oliver, Mr. Harley Dale from the Housing Industry Association, and Mr. Christopher Joye from property index firm Rismark. We’ve been told the date to pencil in is 7 June moneymorning.com I'll let you know where and when the debate is closer to the date.

whenever there is anting about a property bubble there is Steve Keen and almost nobody else. and nobody asks about Keen's persnal experiences which is why he treats the issue like a religious mania.

They're building commercial properties....apparently. They mustn't like the used commercial premises that are empty because the businesses have gone broke. Does anyone know what happened to Qld's first resources boom? they keep referring to the second resources boom  :-?

................................................................

QUEENSLAND'S housing sector is so bad, it's comparable to the post-GST crash of 2000, according to Deloitte Access Economics' latest Business Outlook for the March quarter.

It says apart from concern over interest rate rises and the withdrawal of major stimulus packages, part of the reason for the construction decline in Queensland is because of difficulties accessing finance.

"It is harder to get a loan in the Sunshine State than elsewhere in Australia, and that difficulty in finding finance is weighing on both housing construction, especially of apartments, and perhaps most notably on the Gold Coast and commercial construction in Queensland," the report states.

It sees light at the end of the tunnel for builders in the form of commercial contracts, which had been falling sharply since 2008.

Private commercial construction is expected to grow 3.7 per cent in 2010-11, while private housing investment is expected to see a 4.1 per cent decline in Queensland.

Released today, the report says "an uptick of late suggests there is life in non-residential building activity ahead".

That "uptick" of commercial work already under way includes about $4 billion in several major projects around the Gold Coast, Brisbane, Cairns, Mount Isa, and Mackay. That includes the $1.8 billion, 750-bed Gold Coast University Hospital due to be completed in 595 days. That project is so big, it has 10 cranes on site, covers almost 20ha and needs about 6.5 million construction worker hours to complete.

More than $3 billion worth of commercial contracts are also in the immediate pipeline for Queensland, including work in Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast, and the Gold Coast.

While engineering starts are below the peak seen in 2008, significant work is under way in transport and resource-based projects, with more to come in coal gas seam development.

Keith and Polly Birchall are among the fortunate small family companies that have managed to remain flexible in the face of dwindling pickings in construction in Queensland, keeping their 10 employees and a host of sub-contractors in work.

Their Kingaroy-based construction company, K&P Homes, has firmly shifted towards commercial contracts, which now make up about 75 per cent of its workload.

"The residential market is absolutely dead," said Polly Birchall.

"We tendered for small commercial work and we fortunately won a couple of the tenders, most of which were state or federally funded, and that will help us get through this year."

For the Birchalls, the future lies in small commercial contracts linked to Queensland's second resource boom.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/housing-slump-gets-deeper/story-e6freqmx-1226045207121

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 27^th, 2011 at 7:52pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Apr 27th, 2011 at 7:39pm: nails....and lisa, you guys might be interested in this: Housing debate in June Anyway, last week we mentioned we’d been invited to appear at a housing debate in June.  According to the organiser of the event, there will be six people on the panel.  On the housing-bubble side will be Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, David Collyer from Prosper – the group organising the buyers’ strike – and your editor. (editor of money morning) On the no-housing-bubble side will be AMP economist Dr. Shane Oliver, Mr. Harley Dale from the Housing Industry Association, and Mr. Christopher Joye from property index firm Rismark. We’ve been told the date to pencil in is 7 June moneymorning.com I'll let you know where and when the debate is closer to the date. whenever there is anting about a property bubble there is Steve Keen and almost nobody else. and nobody asks about Keen's persnal experiences which is why he treats the issue like a religious mania.

jees property is really selling well at the moment :) LOL

record median house prices but no buyers :D LOL

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Apr 27^th, 2011 at 7:39pm:

nails....and lisa, you guys might be interested in this: Housing debate in June Anyway, last week we mentioned we’d been invited to appear at a housing debate in June.  According to the organiser of the event, there will be six people on the panel.  On the housing-bubble side will be Professor Steve Keen from the University of Western Sydney, David Collyer from Prosper – the group organising the buyers’ strike – and your editor. (editor of money morning) On the no-housing-bubble side will be AMP economist Dr. Shane Oliver, Mr. Harley Dale from the Housing Industry Association, and Mr. Christopher Joye from property index firm Rismark. We’ve been told the date to pencil in is 7 June moneymorning.com I'll let you know where and when the debate is closer to the date.

asking a HIA dude is like asking dracula for advice on donating blood :) LOL

hopefully by june the bear market will have gathered momentum ;) LOL

Hi Nail,
The fact is that the prices are still too high.
People live on housing estates out of the city
& spend $100 a week on petrol to commute
in order to have a place to live at a resonable price.

The median price in the top 60 suburbs is over $1 million in Melbourne
& that could be for a borer infested old dump.  :-[

[quote author=bobbythebat1 link=1299270865/60#65 date=1303913476]Hi Nail,
The fact is that the prices are still too high.
People live on housing estates out of the city
& spend $100 a week on petrol to commute
in order to have a place to live at a resonable price.

The median price in the top 60 suburbs is over $1 million in Melbourne
& that could be for a borer infested old dump.  :-[/quote]

yes a corrupt negative gearing system that supports recycling old dumps made in the 1920's whilst inflating the bubble :(

the only people NOT buying are you two twits. you lack the ballas and the money to own a home. no surprise there.

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28^th, 2011 at 8:30am:

the only people NOT buying are you two twits. you lack the ballas and the money to own a home. no surprise there.

Twit - I've owned my own home for years.

Bobby. wrote on Apr 28^th, 2011 at 8:32am:

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:30am: the only people NOT buying are you two twits. you lack the ballas and the money to own a home. no surprise there. Twit - I've owned my own home for years.

like you say you had 6 yrs of uni and that you personally know toenail and IM FULLOFIT and they both have luxury cars etc etc etc. no one believes a WORD you say. you still live in a basement with your mum sleeping with your stuffed animals.

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28^th, 2011 at 8:36am:

Bobby. wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:32am: longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:30am: the only people NOT buying are you two twits. you lack the ballas and the money to own a home. no surprise there. Twit - I've owned my own home for years. like you say you had 6 yrs of uni and that you personally know toenail and IM FULLOFIT and they both have luxury cars etc etc etc. no one believes a WORD you say. you still live in a basement with your mum sleeping with your stuffed animals.

and no one believes anything you say except for the fact that you are on new start and are having a tough time finding customers for your new hair dressing salon :) LOL

Sir lastnail wrote on Apr 28^th, 2011 at 11:25am:

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:36am: Bobby. wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:32am: longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:30am: the only people NOT buying are you two twits. you lack the ballas and the money to own a home. no surprise there. Twit - I've owned my own home for years. like you say you had 6 yrs of uni and that you personally know toenail and IM FULLOFIT and they both have luxury cars etc etc etc. no one believes a WORD you say. you still live in a basement with your mum sleeping with your stuffed animals. and no one believes anything you say except for the fact that you are on new start and are having a tough time finding customers for your new hair dressing salon :) LOL

And while he/she is accusing others it keeps the heat off him/her. Good diversion tactic....very over-used though, the government still use it all the time.

longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28^th, 2011 at 8:36am:

Bobby. wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:32am: longweekend58 wrote on Apr 28th, 2011 at 8:30am: the only people NOT buying are you two twits. you lack the ballas and the money to own a home. no surprise there. Twit - I've owned my own home for years. like you say you had 6 yrs of uni and that you personally know toenail and IM FULLOFIT and they both have luxury cars etc etc etc. no one believes a WORD you say. you still live in a basement with your mum sleeping with your stuffed animals.

I don't have a luxury car - never said that I did -
Nail has a luxury car - not me.
I have 6 years of tertiary education.
I left home when I was only 19 & live in my own home
which I bought outright many years ago -

as for you - you're a Walter Mitty loser full of delusions of grandeur.

<<you lack the ballas and the money to own a home>>
........................................................................

That's the weirdest real estate spiel I've ever heard. So only ballsy people buy at the peak then lose.....mmmm I suppose, brainsy people wouldn't.

Home prices see biggest quarterly slump in 12 years

CAPITAL city home prices have posted their biggest quarterly fall in at least 12 years, as more stock in the housing market allows prospective buyers to wait for bargains, a survey shows.

Capital city dwelling values fell by a seasonally adjusted 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year, according to the latest RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index.

The quarterly change was the steepest since the index series began in June 1999, RP Data research director Tim Lawless said.

Prices were flat in the month of March and down 0.6 per cent over the past 12 months, with the national city dwelling value median price at $455,000.

The numbers were being dragged down by a recent rapid build up of housing stock into the market, he said.

"The amount of properties being advertised for sale is about 30 per cent higher than what it was last year," Mr Lawless told AAP.

With more dwellings available for sale, prospective buyers are negotiating for lower prices much more than they used to, he said.

"The simple fact that there's so much stock to choose from for prospective buyers is resulting in more negotiation in the markets (and) buyers are having to sell at lower than what their expectations were.

Seller were now selling properties about 6.5 per cent lower than the original asking price on average, compared with about 5.2 per cent the same time last year.

Recent extreme weather events, including the flooding in Queensland, may also be impacting on the lower numbers, Mr Lawless
said.

"Also, you have the fact that interest rate speculation seems to be building, that they're going to be going up sooner rather than later, particularly with the CPI figures out just recently."

The survey found that while residential properties may not have seen any capital growth over the past 12 months, many are seeing robust increases in rental yields.

"In contrast to the fall in home values, gross rental yields have been improving with apartments and houses now delivering a gross return of 4.9 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively in March 2011," Mr Lawless said.

The capital city average for property values were being pulled down considerably by the two weakest performers of Brisbane and Perth, down 4.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent respectively in the quarter to March, he said.

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/home-prices-see-biggest-quarterly-slump-in-12-years/story-e6frfmd0-1226046929370

some reader comments

"There are over 700 properties listed for sale just in my Brisbane suburb. So much for a housing shortage. "
............................................

"Panicked investors. Too much stock. Not enough suckers willing to pay ridiculous prices. Majority of buyers wised up to the scam. What's that I hear, a toilet flushing?"
........................................................

"Don't blame the mining/oil sectors; it's the greedy people who speculate that houses will keep rising in price that helps push up prices. How do you really expect people to pay upto 8-10 their salary for a house? The sooner the bubble bursts here in Oz the better. Remove the first home owners "grants" it's just my tax dollars. And parents, please stop "helping" your kids into propoerty, it's just adding fuel to the fire with increased house prices. i feel better now!!"
................................................................................

"But surely all these homes are being snapped up because of the housing shortage that the Real Estate Industry keeps spouting on about."
...................................................................................

This is the beginning of the great real estate BUST  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Look like a triple FHOG might helps ..

This is what would have happened if stupid Kevin Dudd and Wayne Goose hadn't interfered and injected money to prop up the bubble. Looks like the so called enviable economy is no different than anywhere else once you strip away all of the hype ;)

Where's badweekend to tell us how we are all wrong :) LOL

I email Real Estate Agents in regards to looking around down Jervis Bay way, etc for House and Land.
I always mention that I know that "Australia is the most over-priced in the world, just to let em know where I stand and how I would prefer a Straw Bale house built due to superior Safetly, Cost, Insulation, DIY capabilities rather than the crap their building companies put up. I also mention I can 'force' the Council to accept my SB House, if they oppose it.

Hardening the F up, I am.
>:(

More doom and gloom boo! hoo!

Melbourne house price fall largest since GFC

MELBOURNE house prices have suffered the worst start to 2011 of any city, barring flood-ravaged Brisbane, falling at the fastest rate in two-and-a-half years.

As households struggle with higher interest rates and soaring prices for petrol, groceries and utilities, official data showed yesterday that house prices fell 2.5 per cent in the three months to March compared with the previous three months.

The result is Melbourne's biggest house price decline since the height of the global financial crisis in the 2008 September quarter and matches the 2.5 per cent decline in Brisbane in the aftermath of the floods.

On the eve of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monthly board meeting to discuss interest rates this afternoon, the Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly house price index also revealed a bigger-than-expected 1.7 per cent drop across Australia's eight capital cities.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/drop-in-melbourne-house-prices-biggest-since-gfc/comments-e6frfh4f-1226048679363

Rural hardship and high rents leave Australian families homeless - Wesley Mission report

A GROWING number of Australian families are being left homeless because of a shortage of rental homes and public housing, a study released today has found.

The study conducted by the Wesley Mission says families currently make up at least a quarter of Australia's homeless population and possibly as much as a third.

Many families who wanted to access rental properties were unable to because of tight market conditions and real estate agents who "auction off" rental properties to get a higher price.

What's paying the rent like for you? Are you finding it tough? Tell us below.

Wesley Mission CEO Reverend Keith Garner said with the current limited supply of rental properties in Sydney and with average rental prices rising by 10-20 per cent a year, the situation was not likely to change quickly.

Dr Garner said the report’s findings about the rise in whole families confronting homelessness were alarming.

"They are in our suburbs, sleeping on the floor in a relative or friend's house, sleeping in their care, living in a refuge after they've left a violent partner.

"They're mostly young, more often than not women, and they are almost always accompanied by young children.”

Wesley Mission public affairs manager Graeme Cole said the issue was compounded by the drift of homeless families from rural areas to the city in search of accommodation in capital cities.

"There is not enough accommodation for families in a lot of rural areas when the main breadwinner loses their job and the bills start adding up that's when we see the need for cheap housing that is not there," Mr Cole said.

"The catch 22 is that people in search of affordable accommodation go to areas with high unemployment - the work is not where the accommodation is."

The report also found that new homeless families were the worst affected because of a lack of awareness about options for support and the absence of "one, simple way to find appropriate help".

The report expressed concern that children in homeless families can often repeat the pattern they observe as adults. It warns that early intervention was needed so that the cycle of disadvantage and despair did not become entrenched.

More than half the adults surveyed for the report had been homeless as children.

“It is clear from these results that having a parent who has been homeless is a significant predictor of being homeless as an adult,” the report states.

“Poverty and alcohol are also common links, with more than half having had parents who had financial problems and issues with alcohol abuse.”

The survey of 50 families found domestic violence was the most common reason for family homelessness, more than twice as common as relationship breakdown or divorce.

It also found 70 per cent of children over the age of 10 experienced violence or bullying, and half had encountered problems because of drug or alcohol abuse.

Sixty per cent had been arrested or jailed.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/high-rents-leave-sydney-families-homeless/story-e6frfmd0-1226048950112#ixzz1LGRhjU7T

Ban the auctioning of homes, for starters. Make them sell for a fixed
price, not to exceed the Valuer-General's figure.

And the 'auctioning' of rental properties should be made ILLEGAL.

As should the endemic discrimination against lower-income
renters, and those on welfare.

There's a good start.

Stop buiding more 'lots' in the Sydney Basin - its becoming a giant concrete slab with poor infrastructure and planning.
If people wanna live, then move into the outback etc, where they are needed. The Blue Mountains no longer provide any more new blocks - what there is is what you get.

...man, I miss the 70's
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQi8wEHMm5Y
with the 1c and 2c bag of lollies.

...man, I miss the 70's

yeah! we didn't have much, at least not all the useless crap we have now, but what we had we made good use of.

We had the ideology of peace and love and sustainable communities..........and the bad acid lol

then we got money hungry and selfish and took our kids futures away.

Home front pressure as loan defaults rise

MORTGAGE customers are defaulting on their loans at a faster pace than at the height of the global financial crisis as soaring living costs stretch household budgets to breaking point.

Westpac, the nation's second-biggest home lender, revealed yesterday that mortgage delinquency rates had climbed above the peaks they reached late in 2008 as the crisis swept around the globe.

And chief Gail Kelly, unveiling the bank's record first-half profit yesterday, said they were likely to climb further - albeit off a low base - as households struggled with rising utility bills and other costs.

Customers accounting for about 1.5 per cent of Westpac's $275 billion home loan book were more than 30 days behind on their repayment schedule at the end of March, according to the data released yesterday.

And the proportion of home loan clients more than 90 days late has jumped to 0.6 per cent - almost double the rate of a year ago and significantly above the high watermark hit during the financial crisis.

Although Queensland has suffered the biggest acceleration in delinquencies - compounded by the natural disasters that beset the state over summer - defaults are gaining pace in every state.

Analysts said the surge in defaults, which comes despite the robust state of the nation's employment market,( yeah sure) pointed to a new wave of repayment stress in Australia's mortgage belt.

UBS analyst Jonathan Mott questioned whether the rise was driven by first home buyers who used grants to enter the market.

The abrupt surge in the proportion of customers who were at least 30 days behind on payments was likely to "flow through over time" to the proportion at least three months late, Mr Mott said.

Mrs Kelly said the lift in delinquencies was "entirely within our expectations".

"It is picking up and we think it will pick up actually a little more, because we're in that stage of the cycle," she said.

While more customers were likely to require support to manage their loan repayments, "we don't actually see it translating into loss".

The revelation came as Westpac posted a cash profit for the six months to March of $3.17 billion, up 7 per cent on the same period a year ago in a result aided by a sharp fall in the charge for bad and doubtful debts.

Net profit soared to $3.96 billion - a 38 per cent increase largely fuelled by a favorable taxation ruling, previously announced by the group, relating to its 2008 acquisition of St George.

Nomura analyst Victor German said there were "no obvious problems" with Westpac's result, despite the 2.5 per cent fall yesterday in the value of the group's share price on a downbeat day across the market.

Some investors were concerned that the increase in profit, which beat analysts' forecasts, was largely fuelled by the sharp drop in the charge for bad and doubtful debts, Mr German said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/property/home-front-pressure-as-loan-defaults-rise/story-e6frfmd0-1226050238549#ixzz1LRXT89Aa

Housing finance falls to 10-year low

THE number of home loans approved in March fell to a 10-year low, dragged down by the Queensland floods and by the November rate hike.

The number of home loans approved in March fell 1.5 per cent, to a seasonally adjusted 44,968, its lowest level since February 2001.

Economists' forecasts had centred on a 2.0 per cent rise in housing finance commitments for the month.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said total housing finance by value fell 0.1 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, to $19.300 billion.

JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman said the number was soft and the housing sector was weak throughout the March quarter.

"There were a couple of things going on that we can obviously point to in Queensland, so the numbers are fairly soft," he said.

"In January, we had the Queensland floods and pushed down approvals nearly 15 per cent and the numbers have failed to come back from that.

"It does seem the Queensland floods are exhibiting a fairly long-lasting drag on that market."

Mr Jarman said many households also refinanced their home loans at the end of 2010 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate by a quarter of one per cent to 4.75 per cent.

"That rate hike in November was supersized by the banks," he said.

"So you've got a couple of elements that are contributing to the weakness, but even if those factors start to fade, there will still be some pretty intense headwinds for the sector.

"You've got borrowing rates now above average and the prospect of more rates hikes to come. So we expect the housing data to be pretty subdued for some time to come."

Mr Jarman said he expected the RBA to next hike in August.

"This will give RBA officials time to look through the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) report, which we'll get in a couple of weeks, which we expect will be quite soft.

"The RBA will wait a couple of months to look through the GDP data and get one more inflation print just to make sure the last elevated print wasn't an anomaly."

ICAP senior economist Adam Carr expects the RBA will be happy with the weak numbers.

"I think they would want lending to be weak, to be honest, and that's the right way to think," Mr Carr said.

"The last thing we would want with the mining boom is another credit boom, another house price boom and the subsequent bust that that's going to bring."

The RBA's stance on monetary policy would probably not be changed after today's data release, he said.

"Lending is weak and they've known it's weak, notwithstanding the fact that there's some seasonal adjustment problems with the data, Mr Carr said.

"You'd be hard-pressed to argue that rates, where they are, are weighing heavily on the (housing) market and I think think it's more just a consumer choice.

"They don't want to buy houses - they're expensive and house price growth is non-existent. So why would you buy?"

RBC Capital Markets fixed income and currency strategist Michael Turner said the data was soft across all the components of the report.

"Weakness in the housing sector is not new news, with first quarter house prices slipping and building approvals remaining broadly weak," he said.

"These data, however, were weaker than expected and there are only modest signs of stabilisation in demand for housing credit.

"The RBA has proven effective in its quest to shift resources to the mining sector, with today's housing data adding to reasonably glum retail sales data released earlier."

Mr Turner expects the RBA to next lift the cash rate in August as inflation rises above the central bank's two to three per cent target band.

"With the RBA forecasting growth to move to an above-trend four per cent by year-end and underlying inflation to move to an above-target 3.25 per cent by end-2013, it is reasonably clear that rates will need to move higher, he said.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/housing-finance-falls-to-10-year-low/story-e6frfkur-1226056716935#ixzz1MTssbjWz

The property spruikers are at it again tonight on ch 9 news. Now the spruikers are on about getting your home rezoned to take advantages of higher house prices in neignbouring suburbs :) LOL

And the usual swill from the REIV are putting their 2 cents worth in as well. They must have a direct line to all of the media outlets :) LOL

It's a bargain hunters' market as house sales plummet

BARGAIN-hunting home buyers face a bumper two weeks, with 1665 properties going under the hammer.

Auction clearance rates are at lows not seen since the global financial crisis, with vendors shaving prices to get sales.

In Melbourne, Clayton is emerging as a best-buy suburb, with only one in three houses selling at auction.

Real Estate Institute of Victoria spokesman Robert Larocca said a month of Melbourne auction clearance rates below 60 per cent and a lot of properties for sale meant this was likely to be the best two weeks for buyers in a couple of years.

He said last weekend's clearance rate of 53 per cent was Melbourne's lowest since November 2008.

"Many auctions are being negotiated in the kitchen afterwards," he said.

But people remain keen to use the auction system, with 780 properties under the hammer this weekend and 885 next weekend.

Mr Larocca said Clayton had a clearance rate of only 36.4 per cent, making it good for bargain hunters.

"They are likely to face less competition and have a better opportunity for snapping up a bargain," he said.

Century 21 Wilson Pride Clayton director Con Katos said $500,000 could buy a property with enough room to build a separate unit.

He said proximity to Monash Medical Centre and Monash University made Clayton popular with property investors.

"Although the auction clearance rate is low, there are a lot of properties selling afterwards," he said.

Meanwhile, a new RP Data report reveals Melbourne sellers are dropping their prices an average 6.5 per cent to find a buyer.

This means a property advertised for $500,000 could be discounted $32,500.

"For potential buyers, the news is much more positive because buyers now hold the power and can really begin to negotiate and pick up a property at a reduced price," RP Data's Cameron Kusher said.

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/bargains-as-auction-rate-hammered/story-e6frfmd0-1226060130437

..........................................................

Take out the spruiker drivel, and you get the picture. Property for investment purposes is a no goer.

Yeah clearly Pansi - that's why my parents are self-funded and spend their time playing golf and going on cruises.

Remind me again if your lifestyle is the same as theirs?

I am sure their property investments have been real failures eh?

The one in QLD has already paid for itself.


You don't half come out with some crap.

Property for investment purposes is a no-goer from this point forward, for a long time into the future.

Things change andrei, and your parents era of buying and selling houses for profit is finished, and is no longer relevant.

If you bought a property at the peak of the boom, you stand to lose considerable money, unless you bought it for a home to live in and not for investment, then you will be paying back a mortgage far more than the value of your property.

Come in the bargain hunters.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 21^st, 2011 at 5:31pm:

Yeah clearly Pansi - that's why my parents are self-funded and spend their time playing golf and going on cruises. Remind me again if your lifestyle is the same as theirs? I am sure their property investments have been real failures eh? The one in QLD has already paid for itself. You don't half come out with some crap.

dream on sunshine. how many property speculators and hoarders in Melbourne like your parents have got caught out with the propaganda about house prices only increasing in Australia and no where else ;) It's funny how the labor government kept the bubble going in Australia by funneling tax payers money into it when it was bursting everywhere else in the world !! As soon as the government handouts stopped so did the bubble ;)

and it is just like joseph goebels says ;)


Quote:

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on May 21^st, 2011 at 6:34pm:

Property for investment purposes is a no-goer from this point forward, for a long time into the future. Things change andrei, and your parents era of buying and selling houses for profit is finished, and is no longer relevant. If you bought a property at the peak of the boom, you stand to lose considerable money, unless you bought it for a home to live in and not for investment, then you will be paying back a mortgage far more than the value of your property. Come in the bargain hunters.

Some people don't understand the meaning of POSITION when it comes to real estate.

Quote:

...man, I miss the 70's yeah! we didn't have much, at least not all the useless crap we have now, but what we had we made good use of.

Totally agree. Best decade for the KISS Philosophy and way of life.


Quote:

If you bought a property at the peak of the boom, you stand to lose considerable money, unless you bought it for a home to live in and not for investment, then you will be paying back a mortgage far more than the value of your property.

Just returned from two days 'holiday' down ULLADULLA way. The amount of Houses and places FOR SALE from there, through Jervis Bay and around, is astounding. I can only guess that these Owners are desperate to sell off their HOLIDAY HOMES / INVESTMENT HOMES.
...THERE IS SO MANY   :o

A generation of debt junkies created the housing bubble pushed along by greedy real estate companies.
I have no sympathy for any of them.

I agree. GREED.

Lisa <<Some people don't understand the meaning of POSITION when it comes to real estate. >>
..............................................................

The people who bought on millionaires row/canal front on the gold coast didn't that's for sure. The prices have plummeted....you can't go wrong buying in that location said the real estate spruikers.

Did quality real estate in Ireland and America miss out on the property crash Lisa? I suppose you'll say they still made profits.

Budget tourists turn Noosa's Hastings Street precinct from 'boutique to bogan'

UPMARKET Noosa is being swamped by budget tourists in a trend some locals claim is changing Hastings St from boutique to bogan.

Low-cost airlines Virgin, Jetstar and Tiger are blamed for flying in hordes of cheap travellers who "bring their own packed lunch" instead of dining out.

Shopkeepers and business identities complain that Hastings St, which used to be on par with the exclusive southern suburbs of Double Bay and Toorak, is being spoiled.

As a result, the once-pricey boutiques of Hastings St have been replaced with budget chain stores and surf shops.

One shopkeeper said she was "sick to the eye teeth" of the cheap chain stores lowering the precinct's status.

Another retail landlord said the tourist strip needed shops like Versace and Tiffany & Co but that wouldn't happen while budget airlines were bringing in mark-down tourists.

"We really need Qantas to fly into the Sunshine Coast and a real five-star resort that will attract the kind of visitors we want," the landlord said.

Tourism Noosa CEO Steve Cooper said the market had shifted, with Noosa now attracting a younger demographic of budget families.

Last year the beach haven drew record visitors 920,000 domestic and 149,000 international but they had shorter stays and spent less.

"It's the lingering effects of the global financial crisis and, with the rise of the dollar, it poses a lot of problems for Noosa and Australia in how we combat that," Mr Cooper said.

High retail rents in Noosa, among the most expensive in the country, have also contributed to the ousting of small businesses by chain stores.

Noosa Chamber of Commerce president Carl Beck admitted Hastings St was becoming "just like any other street in the suburbs".

"But there's nothing we can do about it. We can't dictate who goes in or not. It's just business," he said.

New Zealand tourist Angela Byers has been visiting Noosa for six years and said the area's changing face was not so bad.

"We don't really come here for the shopping, we come here for the beach," she said.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/travel/budget-tourists-turn-noosas-hastings-street-precinct-from-boutique-to-bogan/story-e6freqwf-1226060223074

................................................................

What can I say but LOL. Ahhh!!! the bogans are taking over and multiplying.

Those same bogans will be lapping up the budget real estate in a few years.

Just goes to show that there are still a lot of people in Australia that don't have a clue about the current or future economic situation.

Coming from a Construction point of view. The Houses in the expensive Glen Alpine and Macquarie Links were 'quickly' built too.

I'm waiting a year for the prices to really hit rock-bottom and everything to come crashing down.

"CRASH - CRASH CRASH !!!" LET IT ALL COME CRASHING DOWN AFTER DECADES OF GREED SINCE THE 80'S.  8-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-FQiH4Yh7o

Pansi, I really it find it both sad and annoying that you would take pleasure in families sitting on losses because of house price drops.

It's just, well, very poor form.

I don't Andrei.
Most of these 'families' used their "hard-earned" money to become PLAYERS in the Real Estate Game by buying Houses they didn't really NEED in the name of GREED. They "Gambled" you could say and it didn't pay off. They were enticed by the allure of extra $$ching-ching by the Real Estate Industry and its "Easy Money" promises: "Buy this extra House and you can Rip someone else Off and be Rich!". The only thing is, it back-fired on many (not everyone), who approached the Real Estate Game for Easy Money.
I never feel sorry for those 'families' that go for the WANTS rather than the NEEDS, especially those "poor, struggling' families" that buy things they can't afford via Loans etc.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 11:39am:

Pansi, I really it find it both sad and annoying that you would take pleasure in families sitting on losses because of house price drops. It's just, well, very poor form.

Well don't you take pride when the bubble gets inflated and people have to get ripped off more. Maybe if the media just shutup about house prices and ignored the spruikers then the frenzy wouldn't be so bad. But the media seems to pander to the realestate spruikers especially when house prices go up and they are so keen to video some real estate maggot with a hammer in his hand.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 21^st, 2011 at 7:42pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on May 21st, 2011 at 6:34pm: Property for investment purposes is a no-goer from this point forward, for a long time into the future. Things change andrei, and your parents era of buying and selling houses for profit is finished, and is no longer relevant. If you bought a property at the peak of the boom, you stand to lose considerable money, unless you bought it for a home to live in and not for investment, then you will be paying back a mortgage far more than the value of your property. Come in the bargain hunters. Some people don't understand the meaning of POSITION when it comes to real estate.

You remind me of someone who held blue chip shares before the dot com crash. Those shares were totally unrelated to the internet but  when the dot com crash came those so called 'safe' blue chip shares took a big hit as well. In total disbelief he kept hanging on to them and enduring more losses thinking that they would recover to their pre crash levels. Guess what ?? They didn't ;) The moral of the story is don't be the last one to exit the door because you can always buy again later ;)

Sir lastnail wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:23pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 11:39am: Pansi, I really it find it both sad and annoying that you would take pleasure in families sitting on losses because of house price drops. It's just, well, very poor form. Well don't you take pride when the bubble gets inflated and people have to get ripped off more. Maybe if the media just shutup about house prices and ignored the spruikers then the frenzy wouldn't be so bad. But the media seems to pander to the realestate spruikers especially when house prices go up and they are so keen to video some real estate maggot with a hammer in his hand.

True Nail,
& quite often they bang that hammer down for some
rotten old house full of borer.

Bobby. wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:28pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 1:23pm: Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 11:39am: Pansi, I really it find it both sad and annoying that you would take pleasure in families sitting on losses because of house price drops. It's just, well, very poor form. Well don't you take pride when the bubble gets inflated and people have to get ripped off more. Maybe if the media just shutup about house prices and ignored the spruikers then the frenzy wouldn't be so bad. But the media seems to pander to the realestate spruikers especially when house prices go up and they are so keen to video some real estate maggot with a hammer in his hand. True Nail, & quite often they bang that hammer down for some rotten old house full of borer.

renovators delight :) LOL

It's a pity that aussies didn't put all of this money into R&D and product development instead of recycling old junk properties. We can't even get an australian built all-electric-car off the ground because all of the money is going into junk property :( What a waste of an opportunity :(

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 6:48am:

Lisa <<Some people don't understand the meaning of POSITION when it comes to real estate. >> .............................................................. The people who bought on millionaires row/canal front on the gold coast didn't that's for sure. The prices have plummeted....you can't go wrong buying in that location said the real estate spruikers. Did quality real estate in Ireland and America miss out on the property crash Lisa? I suppose you'll say they still made profits.

1) My expertise/experience/knowledge etc pertains to the Sydney domestic real estate market.

2) The Sydney market is a good market and a big market and one can do very well if they play their cards right ie if they buy position.

3) Given 1) .. I'm not prepared to comment about other real estate markets.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:49pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 6:48am: Lisa <<Some people don't understand the meaning of POSITION when it comes to real estate. >> .............................................................. The people who bought on millionaires row/canal front on the gold coast didn't that's for sure. The prices have plummeted....you can't go wrong buying in that location said the real estate spruikers. Did quality real estate in Ireland and America miss out on the property crash Lisa? I suppose you'll say they still made profits. My expertise/experience/knowledge etc pertains to the Sydney domestic real estate market. It's a good market and a big market and one can do very well if they play their cards right ie they buy position. I'm not prepared to comment about other real estate markets.

Hi Lisa,
I know someone who didn't sell their appartment on the Gold Coast
because the price went down by 40%.
They are stuck with it until the prices go up -    one day!

Bobby. wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:52pm:

Hi Lisa, I know someone who didn't sell their appartment on the Gold Coast because the price went down by 40%. They are stuck with it until the prices go up -    one day!

I never buy apartments or townhouses. Why? I'm not into buying air space. Also you'll never make real money out of real estate unless you buy dirt ie land. And .. you will never make real money out of real estate by buying someone else's development.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:00pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 1:52pm: Hi Lisa, I know someone who didn't sell their appartment on the Gold Coast because the price went down by 40%. They are stuck with it until the prices go up -    one day! I never buy apartments or town houses. Why? I'm not into buying air space .. you'll never make real money out of real estate unless you buy dirt ie land. Also .. you will never make real money by buying someone else's development.

Hi Lisa,
Not everyone is in such a good financial position to do that.
They have to be content with: a unit, apartment or townhouse.
Also many separate houses on a good area of land have to be demolished
& the funds found to build a new home = more money.
Why?
Many houses on good land are rotten old dumps full of borer.

Sir lastnail wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:27pm:

You remind me of someone who held blue chip shares before the dot com crash. Those shares were totally unrelated to the internet but  when the dot com crash came those so called 'safe' blue chip shares took a big hit as well. In total disbelief he kept hanging on to them and enduring more losses thinking that they would recover to their pre crash levels. Guess what ?? They didn't ;) The moral of the story is don't be the last one to exit the door because you can always buy again later ;)

Shares and real estate are 2 VERY DIFFERENT markets. That is the moral of the story.

Bobby. wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 1:52pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 1:49pm: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 6:48am: Lisa <<Some people don't understand the meaning of POSITION when it comes to real estate. >> .............................................................. The people who bought on millionaires row/canal front on the gold coast didn't that's for sure. The prices have plummeted....you can't go wrong buying in that location said the real estate spruikers. Did quality real estate in Ireland and America miss out on the property crash Lisa? I suppose you'll say they still made profits. My expertise/experience/knowledge etc pertains to the Sydney domestic real estate market. It's a good market and a big market and one can do very well if they play their cards right ie they buy position. I'm not prepared to comment about other real estate markets. Hi Lisa, I know someone who didn't sell their appartment on the Gold Coast because the price went down by 40%. They are stuck with it until the prices go up -    one day!

yes but we are always told by the spruikers that real estate prices in Australia increase or plateau but never go down. Now they tell us that rule only applies to certain properties only :) LOL

Bobby. wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:07pm:

Many houses on good land are rotten old dumps full of borer.

These are the houses which will make you REAL money. Pity people can't see beyond the here and now.

As a matter of fact I am presently looking at such cottages in Bowral and Kiama. I don't care about what's on the land .. I'm looking at the type and position of the land itself. I intend to develop the property myself and make a profit if/when I decide to sell.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:13pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 2:07pm: Many houses on good land are rotten old dumps full of borer. These are the houses which will make you REAL money. Pity people can't see beyond the here and now. As a matter of fact I am presently looking at such cottages in Bowral and Kiama. I don't care about what's on the land .. just looking at the type and position of the land itself. I intend to develop the property myself and make a profit if/when I decide to sell.

Wow Lisa,
You must be rolling in money.  :)

Bobby .. many people make money by MOVING it.

Those who are scared to MOVE will stagnate and make nothing.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:20pm:

Bobby .. many people make money by MOVING it. Those who are scared to MOVE will stagnate and make nothing.

That's me - too scared  or too wise?

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:08pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 1:27pm: You remind me of someone who held blue chip shares before the dot com crash. Those shares were totally unrelated to the internet but  when the dot com crash came those so called 'safe' blue chip shares took a big hit as well. In total disbelief he kept hanging on to them and enduring more losses thinking that they would recover to their pre crash levels. Guess what ?? They didn't ;) The moral of the story is don't be the last one to exit the door because you can always buy again later ;) Shares and real estate are 2 VERY DIFFERENT markets. That is the moral of the story.

yes different markets, but the human behaviour towards them is the same. Fear and greed play and equal part of the property market just as it does for the share market. You can't discount human behaviour no matter what markets you are dealing with. The herd mentality is a prime evil instinct ;)

Bobby. wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:26pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 2:20pm: Bobby .. many people make money by MOVING it. Those who are scared to MOVE will stagnate and make nothing. That's me - too scared  or too wise?

Too scared IMO.

Sir lastnail wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:27pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 2:08pm: Sir lastnail wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 1:27pm: You remind me of someone who held blue chip shares before the dot com crash. Those shares were totally unrelated to the internet but  when the dot com crash came those so called 'safe' blue chip shares took a big hit as well. In total disbelief he kept hanging on to them and enduring more losses thinking that they would recover to their pre crash levels. Guess what ?? They didn't ;) The moral of the story is don't be the last one to exit the door because you can always buy again later ;) Shares and real estate are 2 VERY DIFFERENT markets. That is the moral of the story. yes different markets, but the human behaviour towards them is the same. Fear and greed play and equal part of the property market just as it does for the share market. You can't discount human behaviour no matter what markets you are dealing with. The herd mentality is a prime evil instinct ;)

You're wasting all your energy in philosophising .. and it's not going to get you anywhere.

Be smart .. use that same energy to work out what YOU can do to better your financial position by investing those hard earned after tax dollars.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 2:35pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 2:27pm: Lisa Jones wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 2:08pm: Sir lastnail wrote on May 22nd, 2011 at 1:27pm: You remind me of someone who held blue chip shares before the dot com crash. Those shares were totally unrelated to the internet but  when the dot com crash came those so called 'safe' blue chip shares took a big hit as well. In total disbelief he kept hanging on to them and enduring more losses thinking that they would recover to their pre crash levels. Guess what ?? They didn't ;) The moral of the story is don't be the last one to exit the door because you can always buy again later ;) Shares and real estate are 2 VERY DIFFERENT markets. That is the moral of the story. yes different markets, but the human behaviour towards them is the same. Fear and greed play and equal part of the property market just as it does for the share market. You can't discount human behaviour no matter what markets you are dealing with. The herd mentality is a prime evil instinct ;) You're wasting all your energy in philosophising .. and it's not going to get you anywhere. Be smart .. use that same energy to work out what YOU can do to better your financial position by investing those hard earned after tax dollars.

you're dreaming Lisa. The government handouts have run their course and now that there are no more government intervention to keep a floor under house prices the astute investors are running for the exit ;) Don't be last man standing ;)

It just so reminiscent of the blue chip shares that you can't possibly lose on. Different markets too but nothing was safe in the end ;)

Lisa <<I intend to develop the property myself and make a profit if/when I decide to sell.>.
.....................................................

You must plan on living for a looooooooong time. It's over Lisa, dead and buried. There is no more making money from buying and selling houses.

That's not very nice of you to entice people to buy property on the eve of a property crash. You spruikers have no shame, and to call yourself Christian huh!

Some people just don't get it. Ahh well. That's life.

Lisa Jones wrote on May 22^nd, 2011 at 4:14pm:

Some people just don't get it. Ahh well. That's life.

Lisa if you want to treat property as a commodity then expect it to behave like a commodity with normal market forces at play. It's simple supply and demand economics. The supply goes up and demand goes down then so does the price ;) Just because you want 2 million for something that is only worth 500K doesn't mean someone is going to pay you what you want. You may as well say it is worth 10 million !! but if there are no fools to pay what you want then it's only worth what the bigger fool is willing to pay you ;)

This nonsense about property being different than the share market is just wishful thinking. If you strip away government handouts and tax concessions for property there is no difference except for the time it takes to do a transaction which is a lot quicker on the share market because there is less red tape. Otherwise both markets share the same boom and bust cycle behaviour ;)

Some more good news for you Lisa ;)

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/property-prices-tipped-to-fall-5-per-cent-amid-bulging-market/story-fn7x8me2-1226060263205

Quote:

Property prices tipped to fall 5 per cent amid bulging market VENDORS face a long, tough winter as buyers continue to keep their hands in their pockets at auctions. A hefty 780 properties were scheduled to go under the hammer yesterday, with the state recording a clearance rate of 59 per cent. With some 91 auction results yet to be lodged with the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, that figure is all but sure to fall throughout the week. The state's clearance rate, which provides a real-time snapshot of the health of the market, has averaged 60 per cent since the start of the year. A balanced market is between 65 and 75 per cent. Sales volume is 19 per cent below where it was last year and 4 per cent below 2008 levels. SQM Research director Louis Christopher said Melbourne property prices would fall by at least 5 per cent this year. "That's already in the bag, no doubt," Mr Christopher said. "What happens after that depends on interest rates and the general economy." Another 885 auctions are scheduled for this weekend, putting further pressure on vendors to drop reserves. The latest figures from RP Data show Melbourne vendors were forced to drop house prices by 6.5 per cent in March to wrap up a sale. The average discount on units was 6.9 per cent. A glut of property is sitting on the market, with SQM estimating there is nine months' worth of stock to be absorbed by buyers. A balanced market offers two months' worth of stock. The volume of housing for sale at the end of April was double that of a year earlier. "Melbourne is one of the most over-supplied cities in Australia at the moment," Mr Christopher said. "There are 'For Sale' signs everywhere and that is going to lead to price declines beyond this year." Buyers were few and far between at the sale of 3/107 Landells Rd in Pascoe Vale yesterday. Four people turned up for the auction of the two-bedroom unit, but no one offered a bid and the property passed in on a vendor's bid of $330,000. "There is a lot of similar property on the market at the moment, so really it is a buyer's market," Harcourts Epping agent Robert Ozzimo said. "It's tougher at the moment than it has been in past years, but I'll get this one across the line." A crowd of 40 attended the auction of a three-bedroom, two-bathroom single-fronted Victorian house in Hawthorn East. Four bidders battled for the property, which eventually sold for $1.09 million to an accountant in his 40s. "I think it's a good buy in a good street in a good area," the man, who asked not to be identified, said. "The market has come off a little bit in the last month or two, but quality properties in quality areas are still worth it so I'm not worried." Morrell & Koren Bayside director Damian Taylor said buyers were holding off, expecting further price falls. "Buyers are not convinced the bottom has come," he said. Mr Taylor said even though stock levels were up, quality homes were still recording good sales results. "There is a fair bit of ordinary property out there," he said. "Anything not blue chip is being dealt with very harshly, but at the same time when that really good house does come up there is competition for it." REIV spokesman Robert Larocca said estate agents would have their work cut out for them this winter. He said: "It's certainly going to be a slower winter than last year but it's not a disaster by any stretch. "There is no doubt it is a buyer's market and giving buyers better opportunities is not a bad thing. "Overall sales volume is still higher than 2009, so the market can have a self-correcting measure."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/businessold/supply-fine-but-housing-overvalued/story-e6frfh4f-1226054969402


Quote:

Supply fine, but housing 'overvalued' THE supply of homes in Australia is "around equilibrium" but dwellings are hugely overvalued, a leading property analyst says. Institute of Actuaries Australia fellow Anthony Street is bucking the view on supply of many in the sector, saying a property bubble will be averted if prices remain stable. While the property industry and banks talk about a shortfall of 160,000 to 200,000 homes nationally, Mr Street says until recently Australia had more than enough homes to go around. "There isn't the massive undersupply that a lot of people in the property market would want you to think, but there isn't a massive oversupply either," the former Macquarie real estate securities funds manager said. "As more and more people moved out of home and the number of people per dwelling decreased, that accounted for what seems like an oversupply. So I think it's probably around equilibrium at the moment." Mr Street said the average of 2.5 people per dwelling was down from three in the 1980s and '90s. Extra housing would have been taken up by a reduction in the number of people per dwelling, he said. The property industry expects the next census, due on August 9 this year, to show an increase in the average number of people under each roof. From an investment perspective, house prices were at least 30 per cent overvalued, Mr Street said. But this would not be a concern until the commodities boom ran out of steam.

check out the comments ;)


Quote:

# Sub Prime Posted at 4:19 AM May 13, 2011    Only Hugely Overvalued ? Surpise , Surprise Comment 1 of 8 # Brian Wood of Sunbury Posted at 6:37 AM May 13, 2011    rubbish, most adult kids have moved back home which hides the shortage, and many in rental shortage took up boarding offers which is great tax evasion cash in hand of massive increase. These people want their own homes but rents and purchases are out of reach, over valued, the only part of this article which is true. Comment 2 of 8 # cc of cc Posted at 6:55 AM May 13, 2011    Gee, I wonder why the property industry and banks would say there is a property shortfall. Comment 3 of 8 # gib of Australia Posted at 7:11 AM May 13, 2011    How is a commodities boom going to help individual people afford their huge mortgages? Most people don't work in mining! Comment 4 of 8 # Noddy Posted at 7:12 AM May 13, 2011    The won't be overvalued soon, because the over due crash, we had to have, to be in line with the rest of the world is coming. And it will be a bang! Comment 5 of 8 # Keith of Devon Posted at 7:30 AM May 13, 2011    WHAT AN ABSOLUTE STUPID ARTICLE!! SAYING IF THE PROPERTY PRICES REMAIN STABLE,THE BUBBLE WILL BE ADVERTED!!! HEELLLOOOO!!D^%K HEAD Comment 6 of 8 # Jason of The Bush Posted at 8:01 AM May 13, 2011    DOH! There are at least fifty vacant houses within 1 km from where I am sitting at the moment...about 80kmkm from the CBD. Comment 7 of 8 # The Game Is Up Posted at 8:07 AM May 13, 2011    The oversupply myth now truly dead and buried.. but it's too late for the first home buyers that got suckered in on Rudd's first home vendor's boost and RBA record low rates. Regarding "a property bubble will be averted if prices remain stable" - how can prices remain stable when stock on market is increasing rapidly each month (check SQM research 'stock on market'). Comment 8 of 8

Well we do know that it's going to burst soon or later .. but under this government as managed  by all dumb clowns .. since they were in power only a few years .. and people can feel the big pressure of very high cost of livings .. all prices have been pushed up at past pace .. and they will be in power for 2 more years .. and guess what the cost of livings will be ??.. and the higher everything go .. the faster this mad price in housing will going to burst ..

I would definately buy land around Kiama if I could afford to.
Bowral, not too sure - unless it is a large 'working' peice of land.
In fact, gonna just hop on googlearth and suss out a ridge near Kiama.

Didn`t one of crock`s boyfriends say that Australian house prices were a bargain hunter`s dream?