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Member Run Boards >> Environment >> Heaven and Earth - Ian Plimer http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1246320417 Message started by muso on Jun 30th, 2009 at 10:06am |
Title: Heaven and Earth - Ian Plimer Post by muso on Jun 30th, 2009 at 10:06am
It seems like academics everywhere are jumping on the bandwagon to review Plimer's new book. It's fun pointing out the errors, but the catalogue of errors might yet be as long as the book itself ;D
Dr Ian G. Enting of the University of Melbourne has started work on a line by line critique of ‘Heaven + Earth’ — Checking the Claims", listing numerous misrepresentations of the sources cited in the book and other inconsistencies. http://www.complex.org.au/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=91 It's in pdf format, so the following quote has probably dropped a lot of the formatting: Quote:
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Title: Re: Heaven and Earth - Ian Plimer Post by skippy on Jun 30th, 2009 at 10:16am
You'd better wash your mouth out with soap muso, that book is the holy grail to many confusionalists some of them are even docile enough to quote it as a source of scientific fact.
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Title: Re: Heaven and Earth - Ian Plimer Post by muso on Jun 30th, 2009 at 2:28pm
That figure of 98% that you'll see on many dodgy websites was obviously copied from these sites by Plimer without quoting the source - because there is no source :) It's urban legend.
The real figure taken globally is around about 50% percent, but there are other feedbacks apart from water. Climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 is around 3 degrees C (plus or minus 1.5), of which about 1 degree is due to greenhouse gases including CO2, methane nitrous oxide etc, using the forcing equation, which in itself is basic physics: dT=[alpha]ln([CO2]/[CO2}orig)/(4[sigma] T^3) (edit - correction - that's the forcing equation for CO2 only. We generally use the same equation for other gases by expressing them in CO2 equivalents (CO2-e) Another 1 degree C is due to water feedbacks, and all other feedbacks account for another 1 degree or so. Those 'other' feedbacks include albedo, clouds, lapse rate, arctic methane release and reducing CO2 uptake by the oceans as the pH falls. Incidentally some denialist sites quote very low or even negative water feedbacks. It depends on exactly what they want to argue at the time. It's easier to win an argument when you don't have to stick to the facts. |
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