Albanese's taken Labor into minority government, and the Coalition is in the morgue.

That's if a federal election had occurred this weekend.

One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce has declared a stunning new poll "corroborates" a broader pattern of what Australian voters expect of Pauline Hanson’s minor party.

The poll put One Nation winning a whopping 59 seats if a federal election were held today, wiping out key seats for Labor and the Coalition.

Research from Redbridge Group and Accent Research shows the result would force Labor into a minority government and take out the Coalition in all but three states and territories, representing a significant shift towards the surging minor party.

According to the modelling, One Nation would win between 46 and 59 seats, with a median of 53 as it would swipe 37 seats off the Coalition and 16 seats off Labor.

The biggest surge would be in Queensland, where the party could win up to 21 seats - 18 of which have a win probability of 90 per cent or higher.

The Coalition would be left with between seven and 21 seats.

Liberal MP Andrew Hastie would have a 100 per cent chance of losing his Perth seat of Canning, and Opposition Leader Angus Taylor a 98 per cent chance of losing his seat of Hume, on the outskirts of southwestern Sydney, to a One Nation candidate.

The worst-case simulation shows the Coalition would be left with just seven seats across NSW, Victoria and the Northern Territory, meaning their key strongholds of Queensland and Western Australia would be lost. They would also not retain seats in South Australia and Tasmania.

Meanwhile, the Nationals would have no MPs left, wiping them out of the lower house entirely.

The poll sampled more than 6,000 voters between April 29 and May 14, with most of the research being conducted before the May 12 federal budget.

Mr Joyce told SkyNews.com.au that the poll was not an election result but an "indication" of what Australian voters expect of One Nation.

“It’s a poll that is indicative, not the fact, yet it corroborates what other polls have said and what the recent Farrer by-election said,” Mr Joyce told SkyNews.com.au.

“It is an incredible responsibility that is falling more and more onto our shoulders.

“I won’t say the poll is the election, it’s not, but it’s an indication of the job expected of us and we intend to do it.”

Ms Hanson told the Australian Financial Review the polling was reflective of the increasing regard for One Nation as a mainstream political party, especially after David Farley’s historic win for the party in the Farrer by-election.

“(Voters) now have a licence to vote for One Nation, it’s not a wasted vote,” she said.

Redbridge director Tony Barry said the One Nation surge would prove a sticking point for Labor’s mission to achieve a majority government at the next election.

“We still don’t know whether One Nation’s vote will run up against some form of a ceiling and where its floor is, but the mood sentiment holding up their vote is underpinned by economic anxiety and frustration with the current political model, which could be enduring,” he told the AFR.

The latest Sky News Pulse / YouGov polling, conducted from May 12–19, also found Labor had slumped to a near-historic low of 28 per cent on the primary vote, while the federal opposition languished at a dismal 23 per cent.

The results point to a dramatically changing political landscape, with Labor and the Coalition both recording historically weak levels of support.

The polling showed One Nation could potentially form the official opposition and replace one of the major parties for the first time ever.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/stunning-new-poll-shows-one-nation-could-win-59-seats-wiping-out-key-labor-coalition-seats-in-an-election-today/news-story/e65ad6bfa4fac55c5ac371dc8da80a11

from reddit :

Unlike a standard opinion poll, MRP, or Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification research, presents a much more granular seat-by-seat snapshot. It does so by sharing information across electorates, with voters assumed to behave in a related way to other voters with shared characteristics in similar divisions.

However, while MRP polling is effective at identifying how macro trends might be expressed at the local level, it does not factor in the strengths or weaknesses of individual candidates.

Days before the last election, an MRP poll by YouGov came closest to predicting the outcome, with the most likely result being Labor winning 84 seats and the Coalition reduced to 47 seats.

According to the new Redbridge Group/Accent research, entitled A Fragmented Electorate, Labor’s primary vote nationwide was 31 per cent, followed by One Nation on 28 per cent, the Coalition on 21 per cent, the Greens 11 per cent and others on 9 per cent.

But the projections based on applying the MRP methodology say that if an election were held now, Labor, which won a record 94 seats at the election just over a year ago, would be reduced to between 70 seats and 82 seats, with the median of 76, giving it a one-seat majority.

...

How it works
Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) is a statistical technique that estimates local public opinion using a single national poll.

Instead of relying on respondents from every electorate, MRP analyses how traits such as age, gender and religion estimate opinions nationwide. It then takes those insights and combines them with census data to reconstruct a picture of the area.

This MRP data comes from a survey of 6015 Australian voters conducted between April 29 and May 14. It works by sharing information across electorates, with voters with similar traits assumed to behave in a related way to other voters with shared characteristics in other divisions.

It is broadly accurate but can miss idiosyncrasies. The first preference vote shares from the MRP are used to simulate instant run-off elimination estimating two-candidate preferred results, seat level win probabilities and national seat projections.

“A wide gap — like the Coalition’s 7 to 21 — means the result is genuinely uncertain and could swing a long way in either direction. A narrow gap — like Labor’s 70 to 82 — means we’re more confident about where the party will land,” said Dr Shaun Ratcliff, principal at Accent Research.

We want to hear from you

How have the budget changes affected your finances? Have Labor's proposed changes to capital gains tax, negative gearing and trusts impacted you? The Australian Financial Review wants to hear from investors of all types and welcomes a range of perspectives. If you are comfortable speaking with a reporter and having your photo taken, please provide your email address and phone number below.

Redbridge director Tony Barry said not only was One Nation taking most of the Coalition’s political real estate, it was also complicating Labor’s path to majority government at the next election.

“We still don’t know whether One Nation’s vote will run up against some form of a ceiling and where its floor is, but the mood sentiment holding up their vote is underpinned by economic anxiety and frustration with the current political model, which means it could be enduring,” he said.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AusNewsWire/comments/1tkxfju/pauline_hansons_surging_one_nation_could_win_up/

Don't worry, albo and his collection of lying traitors will have a plan.
If worst comes to worst, their sponsors, the CFMEU will send a hit man or two to "fix" the problem.

From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :)

Bobby. wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 7:19am:

From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :)

Let us know when that happens, Bobby.

Perish the thought ... on these soft figures, one nation and the coalition could form a minority government.

Preference deals next election will be extra interesting.

The other outcome could be an alp + coalition government.

Albo must go

Anthony Albanese and Labor are rapidly burning through the one thing every government desperately needs to survive: public trust.

And frankly, Australians have every right to be furious.
That fury is now being channelled into the growing movement at AlboMustGo.com, where more than 18,000 Australians have already signed a petition demanding Parliament be dissolved and a fresh federal election held.
Labor went to the election pretending to be a cautious, centrist government that would protect household budgets and avoid economic shocks. Albanese repeatedly ruled out changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Australians were told there would be no surprises.
Then the election ended.
And suddenly, the same government unveiled sweeping tax changes hitting investors, trusts, family businesses, and wealth creation across the country.
Australians were conned.
That is the growing sentiment, and the anger is spreading fast.
If these changes were so vital, so necessary, so urgent for the future of the country, why did Labor not have the guts to tell voters before polling day?
It is our opinion that Labor knew exactly how unpopular they would be.
That is why the AlboMustGo.com campaign is growing so quickly. Australians increasingly believe they voted for one thing and got something completely different instead.
This is not just frustration over one budget measure.
This is the collision point of years of mounting anger.
Australians are paying obscene grocery bills. Power prices remain crushing. Rent and mortgages are suffocating families. Young people are being locked out of home ownership altogether. Entire communities are buckling under record migration levels while infrastructure struggles to cope.

And what does the government keep serving up?
More spin.
More excuses.
More lectures.

Treasury’s own modelling reportedly shows Labor’s housing tax changes could reduce dwelling supply compared to the baseline. Yet Australians are expected to believe this is somehow a housing affordability miracle.

People are not stupid.
They can see what is happening.
And they are increasingly sick of being treated like mugs by a political class that thinks carefully crafted talking points can hide reality.
Then came the ISIS brides debacle.
Women allegedly linked to ISIS were allowed back into Australia from Syrian camps, with some now facing serious allegations including slavery offences and terrorism-related accusations.
The government insists it did not ‘assist’ their return beyond legal obligations. Yet reports emerged showing authorities had been preparing for these returns for years.
Again, Australians are left with the same feeling: the full truth only ever seems to emerge after the government has already tried to manage the politics.
That pattern is becoming toxic for the Labor government.
Whether it is tax policy, migration, censorship proposals, housing, energy or national security, the same impression keeps hardening in the public mind: this government says one thing before decisions are made and another thing afterwards.
That destroys confidence.
And once confidence goes, governments can unravel very quickly.
The political class still does not fully grasp how much resentment is building beneath the surface of the country right now.
Australians feel financially cornered.
They feel ignored.
They feel manipulated.
And more and more people are arriving at the conclusion that this government obtained power under false pretences.
That is what the AlboMustGo.com petition is really tapping into.
Not just opposition to one Prime Minister.
But growing anger at a government that promised moderation and stability, then delivered higher costs, weaker trust, greater pressure on housing, and a constant sense of national drift.
The petition has become a vehicle for Australians to say they have had enough. Enough excuses. Enough broken promises. Enough being treated like they are too stupid to notice what is happening around them.
And if the political establishment continues ignoring that anger, the number signing AlboMustGo.com is only going to keep climbing.
The danger for the government is that once enough Australians conclude they have been deceived, the political spell breaks completely.
And when that happens, governments fall very fast.
George Christensen, National Campaigns Director, Australia, CitizenGO


Sign the petition here
https://www.citizengo.org/en-au/ot/17576-albo-must-go--time-s-up--call-an-election-now-

I think if matt canavan  comes across he could become prime minister. Very sharp individual.  We will have ONDS

One nation derangement syndrome .
Millions of lefty intellectual sufferers

Happy days  ;)u

Albo pisses me off.

Supposedly, there was a phone call intercepted by some hacker where Albo was whinging to Gomer about the budget fallout.

LOL

I hope they keep fighting each other.  ;D

Quote:

59 Seats to One Nation If Election Held Now.

Maybe 1 seat in 2008 2 at most.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 9:27am:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby.

At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D

Bobby. wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 1:27pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D

Wanna bet?

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 1:28pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet?

I'm not a gambling man but
you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :)

Bobby. wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 1:34pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :)

Absolutely.

And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah?

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 1:57pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah?

Bobby?

Oh, he's gone.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 1:57pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah?

No because she's so old she might retire and then Barny would be PM.    :)

May 24, 2026

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has reacted to a new poll which paints a dire picture for the major parties but boosts One Nation’s election prospects.

According to a Redbridge-Accent Research seat-by-seat projection poll in the Australian Financial Review, if a federal election were to be held today, One Nation would win over 50 seats.

“It’s very encouraging, but it is only a poll. The real poll is on election day,” Ms Hanson told Sky News Australia.

“But it does tell me we’ve still got a lot to do.”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Rgkx5iVvWg

Bobby. wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 2:29pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:57pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah? No because she's so old she might retire and then Barny would be PM.    :)

That makes no sense, Bobby.

If Pauline Hanson does not become PM in 2028 will you leave this forum forever.

A simple yes or no will suffice.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 3:59pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 2:29pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:57pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah? No because she's so old she might retire and then Barny would be PM.    :) That makes no sense, Bobby. If Pauline Hanson does not become PM in 2028 will you leave this forum forever. A simple yes or no will suffice.

Like you left, creep, if Trump ran for prez a second time??

Frank wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 11:47am:

Albo must go Anthony Albanese and Labor are rapidly burning through the one thing every government desperately needs to survive: public trust.

Haven't you heard?

Voters the world over are turning away from mainstream political parties, because  neither side delivers what they say they will.

And the reason for that - which few recognize yet - is the failure of mainstream economists to deal with the globalization which has created winners and losers, and the demand for governments to lower taxes and balance their budgets which results in government austerity, while the rich get richer.

As prof Steve Keen observes re mainstream economics:

Why Private Debt, Not Government Spending, Drives Crises

Most people are told that government deficits are the danger. But the real problem is the private banking system, which creates most of the money and channels it into speculation, not productive activity.

Private banks create most of the money: When banks lend, they create deposits and loans at the same time. That means money is being created by the private sector, and since 2000, most of that new money has come from private credit creation rather than government spending.

Government deficits do the opposite of what people think: A deficit adds net financial assets to the private sector, while a surplus removes them. In this framework, government spending can support stability rather than destroy it.

Asset speculation is the real danger: A large share of private credit goes into houses, shares, and other assets rather than entrepreneurial investment. That is why the system creates bubbles instead of broad-based economic growth.

The system needs repair: The point is not that private money creation is always wrong, but that it is being used in ways that destabilize the economy. Steve Keen’s argument is that public spending, infrastructure, and productive investment should be given more room, not less.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgMjEfBYwyk

Ok ...vote Albo out; but in a rotten economic system which doesn't differentiate between public money and private money, forcing everyone to argue over "fair" taxation, nothing will change.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 3:59pm:

That makes no sense, Bobby. If Pauline Hanson does not become PM in 2028 will you leave this forum forever. A simple yes or no will suffice.

No but you can offer to leave this forum forever if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) 

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 3:59pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 2:29pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:57pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah? No because she's so old she might retire and then Barny would be PM.    :) That makes no sense, Bobby. If Pauline Hanson does not become PM in 2028 will you leave this forum forever. A simple yes or no will suffice.

We are still waiting for you to honour your bet with Bias and leave this forum forever when you lost your bet with him when Trump beat Hillary.

Bobby. wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 4:11pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 3:59pm: That makes no sense, Bobby. If Pauline Hanson does not become PM in 2028 will you leave this forum forever. A simple yes or no will suffice. No ...

White flag accepted.

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 4:12pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 4:11pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 3:59pm: That makes no sense, Bobby. If Pauline Hanson does not become PM in 2028 will you leave this forum forever. A simple yes or no will suffice. No ... White flag accepted.

Greg, do you want to remain as complicit as Frank and Bobby in the current failing economic system?

See post #19.

https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/b6/a4/d2/b6a4d2e06a6ecc9d9ee26b2369b70f0f.jpg

Newly elected One Nation MP Jason Virgo breaks down in tears after confirming he is gay, thanks his Indonesian Muslim boyfriend, and declares: "I love migrants".




No electoral politics makes any difference.

Frank wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 7:43pm:

Newly elected One Nation MP Jason Virgo breaks down in tears after confirming he is gay, thanks his Indonesian Muslim boyfriend, and declares: "I love migrants". No electoral politics makes any difference.

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMXg2dm1zbjI0NHYxNXVhODUwdnEwcWN5enJtMzYxaDczcW9zMm40NyZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/26gspjl5bxzhSdJtK/giphy.gif

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 2:20pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:57pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah? Bobby? Oh, he's gone.

He has no need to respond, he already told you, if you could read and comprehend. It's not a bet but an offer for you to lie and renege again.

"I'm not a gambling man but
you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028."

I have never not voted Labor or voted so that Labor would get the preference(so they didn't collect the vote dollar). I will be voting ON next time. :-/

Setanta wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 9:19pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 2:20pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:57pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah? Bobby? Oh, he's gone. He has no need to respond, he already told you, if you could read and comprehend. It's not a bet but an offer for you to lie and renege again. "I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028."

I wanted to set Pecca up again.   ;D

Bobby. wrote on May 24^th, 2026 at 9:38pm:

Setanta wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:19pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 2:20pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:57pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:34pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:28pm: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 1:27pm: greggerypeccary wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 9:27am: Bobby. wrote on May 24th, 2026 at 7:19am: From fish and chip shop owner to Prime Minister - only in Australia.   :) Let us know when that happens, Bobby. At the next election Pecca.  2028.       ;D Wanna bet? I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028.   :) Absolutely. And you'll leave if she doesn't, yeah? Bobby? Oh, he's gone. He has no need to respond, he already told you, if you could read and comprehend. It's not a bet but an offer for you to lie and renege again. "I'm not a gambling man but you can offer to leave this forum if she becomes PM in 2028." I wanted to set Pecca up again.   ;D

Pecca is the same as Trump, they always win in their own minds, everyone gives them a white flag, their ego knows no bounds contradicting all evidence that it should not. Both sad human beings. I guess that's why Pecca needs to belittle Trump, they are both pieces of shit but Pecca wants to be the scum floating on top.

Dear Set,
Pecca is a great source of entertainment with all his bullshit.    ;D