Australian Politics Forum

New Evidence We are Entering AMOC Collapse

May 4, 2026

The ocean current keeping Europe warm is the weakest it's been in 1,600 years.
If it collapses, it's the most disruptive climate event in recorded human history.
New research has just found the first real early warning system for exactly that -
and we're already in stage 1.

source:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03309-1

Chapters
0:00 - Europe Should be an Icicle
0:37 - What Is the AMOC?
3:01 - Ad
4:05- Why is AMOC Collapsing?
6:33 - New Research: How Close Are We to the Tipping Point?
11:44 - How Bad is it Going to Get?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw9AiEG-Qww

In single sentence.

Quote:

That something I cannot yet define completely but the feeling comes when you write well and truly of something and know impersonally you have written in that way and those who are paid to read it and report on it do not like the subject so they all say it is a fake, yet you know its value absolutely; or when you do something which people do not consider a serious occupation and yet you know, truly, that it is important and has always been as important as all the things that are in fashion, and when, on the sea, you are alone with it and know that this Gulf Stream you are living with, knowing, learning about, and loving, has moved, as it moves, since before man and that it has gone by the shoreline of that long, beautiful, unhappy island since before Columbus sighted it and that the things you find out about it, and those that have always lived in it are permanent and of value because that stream, will flow, as it has flowed, after the Indians, after the Spaniards, after the British, after the Americans and after all the Cubans and all the systems of governments, the richness, the poverty, the martyrdom, the sacrifice and the venality and the cruelty are all gone as the high-piled scow of garbage, bright-colored, white-flecked, ill-smelling, now tilted on its side, spills off its load into the blue water, turning it pale green to a depth of four or five fathoms as the load spreads across the surface, the sinkable parts going down and the flotsam of palm fronds, corks, bottles, and used electric light globes, seasoned with the occasional condom or a deep floating corset, the torn leaves of a student’s exercise book, a well-inflated dog, the occasional rat, the no-longer-distinguished cat; well shepherded by the boats of garbage pickers who pluck their prizes with long poles, as interested, as intelligent, and as accurate as historians; they have the viewpoint; the stream, with no visible flow, takes five loads of this a day when things are going well in La Habana and in the ten miles along the coast it is clear and blue and unimpressed as it was ever before the tug hauled out the scow; and the palm fronds of our victories, the worn light bulbs of our discoveries and the empty condoms of our great loves float with no significance against one single, lasting thing – the stream.

That's how Ernest Hemingway described Gulf stream in his 1935 book "Green Hills of Africa".

The loss of the Gulf Stream will look like a new Ice Age in Europe.

Green policies in Europe will add up extra ice.

From your reference -
"So far, the AMOC is likely weakening, and reconstructions based on sea surface temperatures suggest about a 15% reduction in its strength since 195014,34,35. GS path changes have been reported over the past decades, but the reported shifts are not consistent."

So the models do not agree with observatiuons, how bizarre.

further -"We first focus on 26.5°N because the GS (here, the Florida Current) and AMOC have been monitored along the RAPID-MOCHA array since 200452. The Florida Current strength at 26.5°N is 27.3 Sv during the first 50 model years in POP (Fig. 1a, b), which is somewhat lower (by 14%) than the observed Florida Current strength of 31.7 Sv19."

So the observations that began in 2004 don't match the 50 year data. oh dear.

"Hence, we primarily compare the first and last 50 model years in our analysis. The Florida Current strength weakens as well over the first 500 model years, with a time-mean strength of 20 Sv over the last 50 model years."

Models all the way down.

tallowood wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:28am:

Green policies in Europe will add up extra ice.

Just think of the millions of Europeans who will want to come to Australia
to get away from all the ice?

Bobby. wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 2:50pm:

tallowood wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:28am:

Green policies in Europe will add up extra ice.

Just think of the millions of Europeans who will want to come to Australia
to get away from all the ice?

Europeans skating to Australia during Ice Age.

Bobby. wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:17am:

The loss of the Gulf Stream will look like a new Ice Age in Europe.

......and.......north America bobby !

That is a script for a Hollywood movie bobby !

But who could play the lead ?

[smile]

tallowood wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 4:07pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 2:50pm:

tallowood wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:28am:

Green policies in Europe will add up extra ice.

Just think of the millions of Europeans who will want to come to Australia
to get away from all the ice?

Europeans skating to Australia during Ice Age.

Albo will love millions more coming here. ::)

Yadda wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 4:33pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:17am:

The loss of the Gulf Stream will look like a new Ice Age in Europe.

......and.......north America bobby !

That is a script for a Hollywood movie bobby !

But who could play the lead ?

[smile]

Trump could play the lead hero.

Bobby. wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:17am:

The loss of the Gulf Stream will look like a new Ice Age in Europe.

yes.

while america drills for more oil and the rest of the world is far advanced into renewable power.

america is a backward violent dumb conspiracy ridden violent waste land

Sprintcyclist wrote on May 6^th, 2026 at 3:13am:

while america drills for more oil and the rest of the world is far advanced into renewable power.

And yet that mainstay of renewables, China, is burning more coal and oil. India is burning more coal and oil.

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2026 at 1:33pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on May 6^th, 2026 at 3:13am:

while america drills for more oil and the rest of the world is far advanced into renewable power.

And yet that mainstay of renewables, China, is burning more coal and oil. India is burning more coal and oil.

Prosperity comes from burning fossil fuels.

Bobby. wrote on May 5^th, 2026 at 9:17am:

The loss of the Gulf Stream will look like a new Ice Age in Europe.

A new Ice Age !!

Are you serious ?

I blame......global warming.

What else could be the cause of such a calamity as this ?

We must ban fossil fuels.

/sarc off

Q.
Could the observable [i.e. real] cycles occurring in our sun's own atmosphere.....cause 'atmospheric' changes [heating and cooling] upon nearby planets ?

Yes Yadda - a new mini Ice Age.

Talking of an ice Age:

Wow - it is getting cold in Melbourne -
it's 8 degrees right now.
https://www.bom.gov.au/location/australia/victoria/central/bvic_pt042-melbourne

It's snowing in the mountains close by.
-3.7 C at Mt Baw Baw - only 70km from the outer Eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/w-and-s-gippsland/baw-baw

West and South Gippsland for Thursday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers.
Snow falling above 600 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm near the coast this morning.
Possible small hail during the morning and afternoon. Damaging winds possible. Winds W 25 to 35 km/h.

Bobby. wrote on May 7^th, 2026 at 9:30am:

That will bring in more penguins.

tallowood wrote on May 7^th, 2026 at 12:12pm:

That will bring in more penguins.

Disguised as ISIS brides, or the other way around?

lee wrote on May 7^th, 2026 at 12:56pm:

tallowood wrote on May 7^th, 2026 at 12:12pm:

That will bring in more penguins.

Disguised as ISIS brides, or the other way around?

Australian Politics Forum
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl Member Run Boards >> Environment >> Gulf stream is collapsing: http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1777902716 Message started by Bobby. on May 4^th, 2026 at 11:51pm