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General Discussion >> State and Local >> SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1773821292 Message started by whiteknight on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:08pm |
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Title: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by whiteknight on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:08pm
SA Libs leader admits ‘challenges’ after pre-vote horror poll :-?
South Australia’s premier and opposition leader have united in cautioning voters looking to cast their ballot for One Nation. News.com.au March 18, 2026 A fresh poll has put One Nation on track to beat the Liberals in South Australia’s upcoming election, with such a result threatening to shake up politics across the country. An Advertiser/YouGov poll published on Wednesday showed the Liberals were heading into Saturday’s election with their lowest primary vote in national history at 19 per cent. One Nation was ahead on 22 per cent. With Labor’s core support at 38 per cent, Premier Peter Malinauskas and his government are poised to be returned in a landslide win. Reacting to the poll, South Australian Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn said there was “no doubt that we’ve had some challenges”. South Australian Opposition Leader Ashton Hurn says the Liberals have been hampered by ‘challenges’. “I’m just a straight up country person who is just playing the cards that I’ve been dealt, and my team and I do have some serious policies out there we’re really excited about,” she told a Sky-hosted debate, adding that cost-of-living was top-of-mind. “I’m focused on getting outcomes for the people of SA and yes, this poll is obviously here today. “There are numerous polls throughout election campaigns, and I’m sure the premier would share this view … the only poll that matters is election day. “So I’ll keep working right up until Saturday at 6pm.” Ms Hurn’s support as preferred premier has risen three points to 23 per cent on last month’s poll. But the gap between herself and Mr Malinauskas remained huge, with the Premier commanding 62 per cent support. Responding to the results, Mr Malinauskas cautioned anyone casting ballots for One Nation. South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas has cautioned voters looking to cast their ballots for One Nation. “The thing about One Nation is their leader lives in Queensland,” he said. “And when I wake up on Sunday morning, whatever the result of the election is, I’ll wake up in South Australia. “Pauline Hanson will be in Queensland.” Ms Hurn echoed his comments, saying that One Nation was a “Queensland-based party” and “very Queensland-focused”. “We need South Australian policies on the table because that’s what people are voting for,” she said. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by whiteknight on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:10pm
I think labor is going to win this one. :)
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Dnarever on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:25pm
I know little about local SA politics but I think it obvious that Trump has seriously damaged the conservative cause world wide. So barring any stand out local issues the conservative should be deep in trouble.
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Jasin on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:43pm
You know the ALP have had their Biden term of do nothing while the country goes to crap.
You know the swing back to the NLP is underway. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:46pm My old mate Pete should win this one. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Baronvonrort on Mar 20th, 2026 at 4:14pm Quote:
A vote for Labor is a vote for WEF |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Dnarever on Mar 20th, 2026 at 9:15pm Jasin wrote on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:43pm:
Biden had the most impresive term in recent US history. Unfortunately Albo is average in comparison. I have no idea how this relates to SA politics but there is zero indication of any swing back to the Libs. The requirment is that the Libs need to improve first to encourage a recovery. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:52am Dnarever wrote on Mar 18th, 2026 at 6:25pm:
Here's a candidate Trump could get behind. One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter wanted in the UK for failing to attend court on sexual touching charge A UK court has confirmed a warrant has been issued for the arrest of One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter, also known as Trent Baxter, after he failed to attend court. Mr Baxter was charged in September 2023 with sexually touching a woman without consent. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Captain Nemo on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:54am
Labor should win this one very easily.
The only thing of interest is how ON goes. Can they turn opinion polls into real votes? What will the Upper House look like? |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:56am Captain Nemo wrote on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:54am:
Hopefully this ON candidate won't be getting any votes. One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter wanted in the UK for failing to attend court on sexual touching charge A UK court has confirmed a warrant has been issued for the arrest of One Nation candidate Aoi Baxter, also known as Trent Baxter, after he failed to attend court. Mr Baxter was charged in September 2023 with sexually touching a woman without consent. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 21st, 2026 at 11:15am greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:52am:
When you're a star they let you do it. It never stopped Trump from being elected. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Jasin on Mar 21st, 2026 at 12:01pm
Schlime schlime
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 21st, 2026 at 12:14pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 21st, 2026 at 11:15am:
That's right, because there are a lot of rapists in the US. And convicted criminals, just like Trump. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 21st, 2026 at 8:28pm So, how did it go for the Libs in South Australia today? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4IfxAQ4TqQ |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:50pm Labor wins by a landslide: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-21/a-mountain-to-a-cliff-for-sa-liberals-in-sa-election/106482264 When Ashton Hurn took on the role of South Australian Liberal leader just a few months ago, she likened the challenge to climbing a "mountain". Rather than climbing the mountain, the Liberal Party has now fallen off a cliff. The party has not just lost, but has suffered one of the most staggering election disasters in Australian political history. In a country that has had an entrenched two-party system for 80 years, the Liberals appear to have somehow slipped to third, at least on the primary vote. "You do have to concede the people have spoken and there has been quite a loud message sent," Liberal Senator Anne Ruston said on the ABC's election night coverage. If you had told even the most pessimistic Liberal when Ms Hurn took the leadership that their vote would fall this far, it's highly unlikely they would have believed you. Across Adelaide, once very safe Liberal seats are now in Labor hands. Perhaps most significantly, the Liberals appear to have finished significantly behind One Nation on the primary vote. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:55pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:50pm:
Labor always wins no matter how bad they are. :o |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 21st, 2026 at 10:22pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 21st, 2026 at 9:55pm:
Pete's a good guy. He deserved to win. Wipeout! ;D |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 21st, 2026 at 10:31pm Pecca, it was the same here in Victoria, Dan was a fiend and they still voted him back in. ::) |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 6:28am Bobby. wrote on Mar 21st, 2026 at 10:31pm:
Pete's not a fiend - he's a very nice guy. His government was always gonna be voted back in. The real story is the Libs - it was a wipeout :) |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 7:34am
21% of S.Oz gave their primary vote to O.N. Not a good sign for the federal election in a couple of year.
Even throughout suburban Adelaide, O.N polled well. In some safe Labor seats, Labor's swing against was 20% to O.N. Greens gains insulated Labor through preferences. Liberals, decimated, is always great news. O.N was kept at bay by Liberals & Labor not preferencing. Next November, lets see if ON can replicate in Victoria's election. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by LNP never again on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:55am
Looks like the libs were smashed to smithereens .... how many seats dumb nation win ?
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:03am
Labor ~ Liberals did a preference deal. That said, O.N are close in a couple seats, yet likely to fail.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/guide/mack https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/guide/hamm |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Carl D on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 10:08am LNP never again wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:55am:
Be sure to let me know as soon as anything changes for the better as far as the average South Australian is concerned, OK? I'll be waiting... waiting_005.jpg (19 KB | 4
) |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by b4il3y on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 10:16am
Liberal bloodbath.
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Daves2017 on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 10:41am Ai_Took_Our_Jobs wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:03am:
The uni party? It’s only a matter of time before labor and the LNP merge |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 12:24pm LNP never again wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:55am:
Currently, zero. Zilch. None. Nada. Zip. Nil. Nulla. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Daves2017 on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 1:36pm
Greg you are missing how our “ democracy “works.
One Nation just took 21% of election funding away from both the labor and liberal parties. That’s real hard cash that will not be preference away. The seats one and lost is irrelevant. The amount of taxpayer funds that you receive is what makes the game important. My undoubted rough estimate is Pauline Hanson just collected $556,453.006 The real issue is that this money has been taken away from the uni party. The cake doesn’t get bigger there slice just got 21% smaller. And that hurts them. It hurts them hard. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:13pm
O.N has got it's first S.A. lower house seat
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/guide/ngad |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:23pm Ai_Took_Our_Jobs wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:13pm:
Just one? |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:29pm
So far. Leading in at least one other.
And this without preferences from Lib & Lab. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:30pm Ai_Took_Our_Jobs wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:29pm:
So, a grand total of two? ;D |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:31pm
Plus one extra so far in the upper house.
Victorian Lib/Labs must be nervous. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:43pm Ai_Took_Our_Jobs wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:31pm:
Three? Oh no! :o Can they form government with three seats? |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 4:46pm
They have to form government before rusted on lab supporters realise they are a threat.
okey dokey. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Dnarever on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 7:51pm
When the Liberals are in too much trouble their supporters turn to nuttery, it's normal.
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 7:57pm greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 6:28am:
All Labor Govts are: high taxing, high spending, high borrowing. Your great grand children will be born with a massive debt over their heads. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Dnarever on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:13pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 7:57pm:
Every Liberal government makes that claim but then every incoming Labor government has to clean up the ecanomic mess the Liberal governments leave. Turns out that the Liberal rhetoric isn't supported by the facts. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by greggerypeccary on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:20pm Biggest win ever! |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:22pm Dnarever wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:13pm:
Under Howard and Costello we owed nothing - now Federal debt is over $1 trillion. ::) |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by thegreatdivide on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:01pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:22pm:
3 decades ago (!), Howard benefitted from a mining boom fueled by China. And 3 decades ago, centre-left Clinton (a Dem) achieved the same outcome in the US, but for different reasons: (google) President Clinton’s budget surpluses (1998–2001) were achieved through a combination of tax increases on high earners, restrained government spending, and a massive economic boom. Key factors included the 1993 budget deficit reduction, the 1997 Balanced Budget Act, "peace dividend" defense cuts, and tech-driven economic growth. Times change.....but your govt. debt delusions don't change, which is why the democracies are imploding while the working class, abandoned by the mainstream Left, is looking to Pauline for salvation. Won't work, especially with blind mainstream Neoclassical ideologues like you forcing governments to balance their budgets. (eg you can't explain why the currency-issuing federal govt. had to borrow money to finance the covid lockdown, a major reason for the current $1trillion Oz govt. debt.) Now both Lib and Lab have to realize they are on the nose with the working class - who are confused enough to think ON will save them. But the days of Oz running on fossil fuel are over, which is ON's achilles heel. Meanwhile the housing crisis cannot be fixed in the market economy. Oh dear..... |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by thegreatdivide on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:09pm greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 8:20pm:
Yeah, but instead of Labor taking Hammond from the Libs for the first time in 60 years, the conservative seat turned to ON not Labor (Labor's Simone Baily was actually in front at the close of counting last night, but Lib. preferences will win the seat for ON. ie. if Labor preferencing Libs over ON don't maintain the seat for the Libs ....) The Greens are moribund, the centre is dying, while Labor - in the centre - is a neoiliberal outfit who has abandoned the working class who have more immediate cost-of-living problems than to worry about climate change: Senator Roberts (ON) anti-renewables campaign is a winning policy for such people, because they remember coal-based electricity was cheaper than the transition to renewables is proving to be. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:26pm thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:01pm:
That's just a word salad for - Labor can't manage money. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by thegreatdivide on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:35pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:26pm:
1. Can you identify the 'word salad? Thank you. 2. How can a government of ANY stripe solve the c-o-l and housing crisis for the working class, if you insist on lower taxes and spending, and higher interest rates? (Which is why the Libs are heading for extinction, while Labor is at least offering some (insufficient) relief for low-income groups). 2. Your inability to engage in debate is deplorable. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Bobby. on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:53pm thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:35pm:
You should see the mess Dan left us in Victoria. We owe more money than NSW, QLD and Tassie combined - we're so bankrupt that the federal Govt may have to bail us out. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Jasin on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 6:31am
;D SA Premier says Australian patriotism is about talking about footy and not religion (and then he nearly said politics).
This is ALP - own goal politics 😆 |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Captain Nemo on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 9:07am |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Captain Nemo on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 10:00am
Looks like One Nation could end up with 3 - possibly 4 seats.
An absolute disaster for the Libs. They probably need to dissolve the party and start over with a rebranding! :D |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 10:13am
"The Greens are moribund"
Greens 83,511 10.4% +1.3% Still an outside chance of a lower house seat, if they get into second place, will win on preferences. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2026/guide/heys Assisted Labor in holding on some seats where Labor's primary collapsed. Greens are fine. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by thegreatdivide on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 12:35pm Ai_Took_Our_Jobs wrote on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 10:13am:
No they are not, they have been stuck on c.11% (Oz wide) for a decade, despite the c-o-l and housing crisis...while ON has soared since the last federal election. Leader Adam Bandt's loss, due to changing voting patterns at the last federal election, was a disaster for the Greens. (google) Adan Bandt was ousted from his formerly safe seat of Melbourne due to a confluence of factors, including a voter swing toward Labor to prevent a conservative government, the flow of Liberal preferences to Labor, and local frustration with the party’s campaign focus. And now the Libs see they will have to join ON..... |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Jasin on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 12:39pm
Face it TGD.
The Federal level has become a Golden Fleece. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by thegreatdivide on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 12:40pm Bobby. wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:53pm:
Indeed, the feds have a "printing press", they can write off Vic's. debt at any time. And you have some fabulous new infrastructure as a result of the state's debt. And note the 'trade-off' with unemployment rates: (google) Australia's national headline unemployment rate is approximately 4.1 -4.2% as of early 2024–2025, with rates varying across states and territories. Key figures show the lowest unemployent rates in states like Victoria and the Northern Territory, while others fluctuate higher, often reflecting strong participation in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Who'd have thunk govt debt would reduce unemployment..... |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 3:41pm thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 12:35pm:
Your original comment was that Greens where dying. Now you say they are stable on 11% That's a back peddle. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by thegreatdivide on Mar 24th, 2026 at 10:28am Ai_Took_Our_Jobs wrote on Mar 23rd, 2026 at 3:41pm:
No it isn't; moribund has different emphasis of defintion: (google) Synonyms of Moribund Dying/Declining: Expiring, failing, passing, perishing, waning, ebbing. Stagnant/Inactive: Stagnating, forceless, lifeless, at a standstill. I had the 2nd definition in mind, ie the Greens are at a standstill, even (in 2025) losing their leader in the housing, c-o-l, and inequality crisis, the very things the Greens promote themselves as having the solutions (higher taxes on wealth and greedy fossil-company price gougers). |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Ai_Took_Our_Jobs on Mar 24th, 2026 at 12:17pm
Standstill does not equate to ... stagnating, forceless, lifeless.
Since in S,A, Greens have gained, while all others excluding O.N, has gone backwards. The evidence is in ... Greens are alive and kicking. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Dnarever on Mar 25th, 2026 at 7:44am Bobby. wrote on Mar 22nd, 2026 at 9:26pm:
Yet History shows the exact opposite. Most Labor governments have had to fix failed Liberal economies. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Jasin on Mar 25th, 2026 at 11:56am
20 years ago we were DEBT FREE thanks to the NLP. Since then, the ALP Left have contributed the vast majority of our TRILLION+ 💸💵💸💵 DEBT.
COVID was a justified excuse for the NLP to spend directly to the people and couldn't be helped. But our current immediate situation could have been softened if it wasn't for stupid incompetent Bidenesque Anus ALP. |
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by LNP never again on Mar 29th, 2026 at 5:53am
Best result for Labor in SA since 1930s , how did libs go ;D
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Title: Re: SA Election Saturday 21 March, Who Will Win? Post by Dnarever on Mar 29th, 2026 at 10:57am Jasin wrote on Mar 25th, 2026 at 11:56am:
20 years ago we had the best ecanomic conditions in over a century. The LNP committed this position into the future which meant that as soon as the economy deteriorated i.e see GFC we find that the LNP's unafordable spending that was locked in lead to disaster. Instead of spending the money they had they spent money into the future and that money depended on the best economy in a century continuing forever. Government income returning to historically normal levels was a disaster - an inevitable disaster. One example was the unafordable tax cuts to the wealthy, The money to pay for them went away but the cost remained. Had they spent money thay actually had on infrustructure it would have been a big win for the country. |
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