Wind and solar, and not nuclear, the key to cheaper energy: CSIRO   :)

December 17, 2025
Sydney Morning Herald

A mix of solar farms, onshore wind turbines, energy storage assets and gas is the cheapest option for the future of Australia’s electricity grid, new CSIRO modelling has found, but adding nuclear energy, carbon capture or offshore wind projects will push up power prices.

The Commonwealth science agency’s latest cost projections confirm a power system dominated by backed-up renewables is the lowest-cost way to replace the nation’s retiring fleet of coal-fired power plants while catering for growing electricity demand and cutting net emissions to zero over the next 25 years.

The CSIRO has found that combining onshore renewables with back-up from batteries, hydropower and gas to be the cheapest transition path away from coal-fired power plants.


The draft CSIRO report, to be released on Wednesday, comes amid renewed political debate over the cost of Australia’s energy transition, as the Coalition fights to dismantle the Albanese government’s clean energy targets and argues taxpayer funds should be available to technologies including carbon capture and storage, and nuclear energy.

Today’s average wholesale electricity cost – what retailers pay for power before on-selling it to customers – is around $129 a megawatt-hour on the eastern seaboard. The CSIRO estimates Labor’s ambition for an electricity grid powered 82 per cent by renewable energy by 2030 could deliver wholesale electricity prices of $81 a megawatt-hour – or $91 a megawatt-hour including the cost of transmission lines.

Experts and industry leaders, however, warn the rollout is currently lagging the speed required for the government to meet that target, and an urgent uplift in investment and project approvals is needed to keep it within reach.

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By 2050, wholesale power costs are expected to increase to between $115 and $124 a megawatt-hour, which would still be cheaper than today, the CSIRO said. However, when factoring in the cost of transmission lines, it would be between $135 and $148 a megawatt-hour, the agency said.

But adding “first-of-a-kind” technologies, such as carbon capture and storage and offshore wind farms, to the mix alongside solar and onshore wind farms to deliver net zero emissions by 2050 would push average projected electricity costs even higher, it added. Nuclear remains “consistently the highest cost” option, the CSIRO said.

“The combination of solar PV [photovoltaic], onshore wind, storage and either natural gas or hydrogen was the least-cost technology mix in all cases examined, with the addition of carbon capture and storage, offshore wind and nuclear leading to higher average electricity costs,” said the GenCost report, which was jointly prepared by CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator.


CSIRO director of energy Dr Dietmar Tourbier said there was a cost associated with the build-out of Australia’s future electricity system under any potential scenario. “GenCost plays a vital role in producing and sharing trusted, evidence-based information with stakeholders to help understand that cost,” he said.

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Jackie Trad, the chief executive of the Clean Energy Council, which represents renewables developers, said the figures demonstrated that Australia could replace retiring coal capacity while maintaining affordability and reliability for households and businesses.

“Research continually shows that if Australia wants affordable power as coal retires, the answer is to build more renewables, invest in storage and firming, and keep the system flexible,” Trad said. “Delaying the transition or forcing in higher-cost technologies will only push bills up.”

Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the findings demonstrated renewables, backed up by battery storage, hydropower, transmission lines and fast-start gas “peaking” plants, were the “best way to keep the lights on and put downward pressure on bills”.

“GenCost also confirms the Coalition’s expensive ageing coal and nuclear obsession would mean higher costs, higher bills, and decades waiting for a plan that does not stack up,” Bowen said.

We have loads of solar energy already -

the problem is storing it.

whiteknight wrote on Dec 19^th, 2025 at 10:02am:

The CSIRO has found that combining onshore renewables with back-up from batteries, hydropower and gas to be the cheapest transition path away from coal-fired power plants.

Strangely the cost of lithium has increased by 61% since Jun-Jul, when China dropped the dumping of lithium, but the agency CSIRO uses insists the price is still dropping. ::)

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium

One day Nuclear will be viable if nothing better comes along.

It is currently not ecanomically viable and that is even while ignoring 95% of the cost. There is no consideration given to the cost of storing nuclear waste for 10,000 years factored into the projected costs.

You can safely look at the given projected cost and then add a few hundred trillion dollars to see a ball park costing.

"backed up by battery storage, hydropower, transmission lines and fast-start gas “peaking” plants,"



Ah...

Bobby. wrote on Dec 19^th, 2025 at 10:05am:

We have loads of solar energy already - the problem is storing it.

Fossil fuels ARE storages of solar energy.
They are concentrated solar energy stored as wood, oil, coal, gas.

Dnarever wrote on Dec 19^th, 2025 at 12:47pm:

One day Nuclear will be viable if nothing better comes along.

That must be why SE Asia is going to nuclear.

"Electricity demand across ASEAN is projected to triple by 2050, rising from 1,200 TWh in 2022 to 4,300 TWh in 2050. ASEAN includes some of Asia’s fastest growing economies, including Cambodia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Nuclear power, including small modular reactors (SMRs), offer a low-carbon solution to support industrialization and rising living standards. Based on the latest Global Market for Advanced Nuclear map from the Energy for Growth Hub and Third Way, here’s where each ASEAN member stands on nuclear readiness."


https://aseanenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/2025-Update-Who-in-ASEAN-Is-Ready-for-Nuclear-Power.pdf


Dnarever wrote on Dec 19^th, 2025 at 12:47pm:

It is currently not ecanomically viable and that is even while ignoring 95% of the cost.

Like ignoring the cost of batteries as a cost of renewables alone? ::)

Frank wrote on Dec 19^th, 2025 at 12:58pm:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 10:05am: We have loads of solar energy already - the problem is storing it. Fossil fuels ARE storages of solar energy. They are concentrated solar energy stored as wood, oil, coal, gas.

But they release CO2.

forgiven

namaste

Bobby. wrote on Dec 20^th, 2025 at 8:51am:

Frank wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 12:58pm: Bobby. wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 10:05am: We have loads of solar energy already - the problem is storing it. Fossil fuels ARE storages of solar energy. They are concentrated solar energy stored as wood, oil, coal, gas. But they release CO2. forgiven namaste

Trees take in CO2 and use it to build tree tissues and releases oxygen in the process.

Leroy wrote on Dec 20^th, 2025 at 9:32am:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 20th, 2025 at 8:51am: Frank wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 12:58pm: Bobby. wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 10:05am: We have loads of solar energy already - the problem is storing it. Fossil fuels ARE storages of solar energy. They are concentrated solar energy stored as wood, oil, coal, gas. But they release CO2. forgiven namaste Trees take in CO2 and use it to build tree tissues and releases oxygen in the process.

OK - so every school kid knows that.

Bobby. wrote on Dec 20^th, 2025 at 9:34am:

Leroy wrote on Dec 20th, 2025 at 9:32am: Bobby. wrote on Dec 20th, 2025 at 8:51am: Frank wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 12:58pm: Bobby. wrote on Dec 19th, 2025 at 10:05am: We have loads of solar energy already - the problem is storing it. Fossil fuels ARE storages of solar energy. They are concentrated solar energy stored as wood, oil, coal, gas. But they release CO2. forgiven namaste Trees take in CO2 and use it to build tree tissues and releases oxygen in the process. OK - so every school kid knows that.

Does every school kid know how much CO2 is in the atmosphere?.

Another school kid question for you Bobby,

If burning coal produces CO2 and trees use CO2 what would be the best course of action,
A stop burning coal to reduce CO2
B stop chopping down trees to reduce CO2.

How would you expect a school kid to answer that question?.

Bobby. wrote on Dec 20^th, 2025 at 8:51am:

But they release CO2.

It is all part of the Carbon Cycle.

So if batteries are now so cheap, why the subsidies? ::)

Leroy wrote on Dec 20^th, 2025 at 9:50am:

Another school kid question for you Bobby, If burning coal produces CO2 and trees use CO2 what would be the best course of action, A stop burning coal to reduce CO2 B stop chopping down trees to reduce CO2. How would you expect a school kid to answer that question?.

All of the above.
Stop cutting down trees -
Grow more trees -
burn less coal.