Energy regulator warns of decade-long price pain without rapid renewables push


News.com.au
December 4, 2025

Australians are being warned their electricity bills could spike if there is not a dramatic increase in energy supply.   :(

The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) said households could be paying up to 13 per cent more from 2030-2035.

This is based on a lack of supply over the next decade and the current pipeline of renewable energy projects, they say.

Australia needs to increase its renewables, particularly wind or risk paying more for power.

According to their latest forecasts, power prices will actually fall by 5 per cent a year over the next five years as new projects start.

But after that five-year period households could be left paying more as Australia falls behind on renewable projects.

When combining the initial decline in power prices before the uplift in costs, AEMC warns Australians will pay about 0.8 per cent a year more for power through to 2035.

AEMC chair Anna Collyer said an increase in renewables and batteries through to 2030 was crucial to keeping electricity prices down.

“Our price outlook highlights a critical five-year window: residential electricity prices are projected to fall through 2030 as renewable generation and batteries ramp up, but then rise through 2035 if the pace of new investment doesn’t keep ahead of growing electricity demand and planned coal retirement,” she said.

The AEMC states it is an outlook and not a guarantee of future prices.


The new report puts pressure on the Albanese government’s energy policy which says they can supply 82 per cent of the country through renewables by the end of the decade.

Energy minister Chris Bowen says the AEMC makes it clear the importance of moving on from an ageing, unreliable coal powered economy.

”It’s simple; when coal breaks down, your bills go up,” Mr Bowen said.

“That’s why we’ve got to keep rolling out reliable renewables and help more households embrace solar and batteries.”

According to the energy commission, the retirement of coal power stations and an uplift in home solar will help lower energy prices.

The regulator warns that delaying renewable projects post 2030 could increase annual household electricity prices as much as 20 per cent.

While poor co-ordination of consumer energy resources could add up to 13 per cent to electricity prices.

“The risk of prices rising after 2030 only emerges if we slow down renewable deployment just as coal plants retire,” Ms Collyer said.

“This is a timing challenge, not a technology cost issue. With the right pace of investment, we can manage the energy transition while keeping prices stable.”

Households are being warned to electricify their homes.

According to the AEMC there are steps households can take to avoid this energy price jump.

These include households reducing their total energy costs by up to 90 per cent by going fully electric from today.

They say this includes switching to an electric vehicle, electrifying gas appliances, installing solar panels and household batteries.

Combined AEMC says this would save households around $900 a year or 15 per cent of their current spending on energy over the next decade.

“The ongoing savings from electrification generally exceed the upfront costs a household would incur,” the AEMC report stated.

“While costs and benefits vary between household types, typical payback periods are less than 10 years if households electrify today.”

The AEMC says the greater savings can come from switching away from gas.

“This is because our typical household starts with ‘all gas’ appliances, whereas last year we assumed they had already partially electrified some gas appliances.” it stated.

Energy minister Chris Bowen says the AEMC makes it clear the importance of moving on from an ageing, unreliable coal powered economy.

”It’s simple; when coal breaks down, your bills go up,” Mr Bowen said.

“That’s why we’ve got to keep rolling out reliable renewables and help more households embrace solar and batteries.”   :) 

Bit late to discuss a spike, isn't it?  Trouble is it's WITH renewables....

With all the furore - I've been converted to nuclear....  I say we take off into orbit and nuke the entire site ... it's the only way to be sure...

I reads almost as an admission of guilt?

My own electricity bill has increased 32% in the last year despite using less electricity .

I count myself as lucky as many north West of Brisbane (a hour drive to the cbd) have been left without any power for the last five days following storms.

First world country Australia is no more but we still pay first world prices.

Wonderful news about the 4 year old m4 tunnel in Sydney roof falling in.

What we need to do is privatise more government assets because not only does this make them cheaper but far better maintained and managed.

Said no Australian EVER!

whiteknight wrote on Dec 6^th, 2025 at 8:43am:

Energy regulator warns of decade-long price pain without rapid renewables push News.com.au December 4, 2025 Australians are being warned their electricity bills could spike if there is not a dramatic increase in energy supply.   :( The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) said households could be paying up to 13 per cent more from 2030-2035. This is based on a lack of supply over the next decade and the current pipeline of renewable energy projects, they say. Australia needs to increase its renewables, particularly wind or risk paying more for power. According to their latest forecasts, power prices will actually fall by 5 per cent a year over the next five years as new projects start. But after that five-year period households could be left paying more as Australia falls behind on renewable projects. When combining the initial decline in power prices before the uplift in costs, AEMC warns Australians will pay about 0.8 per cent a year more for power through to 2035. AEMC chair Anna Collyer said an increase in renewables and batteries through to 2030 was crucial to keeping electricity prices down. “Our price outlook highlights a critical five-year window: residential electricity prices are projected to fall through 2030 as renewable generation and batteries ramp up, but then rise through 2035 if the pace of new investment doesn’t keep ahead of growing electricity demand and planned coal retirement,” she said. The AEMC states it is an outlook and not a guarantee of future prices. The new report puts pressure on the Albanese government’s energy policy which says they can supply 82 per cent of the country through renewables by the end of the decade. Energy minister Chris Bowen says the AEMC makes it clear the importance of moving on from an ageing, unreliable coal powered economy. ”It’s simple; when coal breaks down, your bills go up,” Mr Bowen said. “That’s why we’ve got to keep rolling out reliable renewables and help more households embrace solar and batteries.” According to the energy commission, the retirement of coal power stations and an uplift in home solar will help lower energy prices. The regulator warns that delaying renewable projects post 2030 could increase annual household electricity prices as much as 20 per cent. While poor co-ordination of consumer energy resources could add up to 13 per cent to electricity prices. “The risk of prices rising after 2030 only emerges if we slow down renewable deployment just as coal plants retire,” Ms Collyer said. “This is a timing challenge, not a technology cost issue. With the right pace of investment, we can manage the energy transition while keeping prices stable.” Households are being warned to electricify their homes. According to the AEMC there are steps households can take to avoid this energy price jump. These include households reducing their total energy costs by up to 90 per cent by going fully electric from today. They say this includes switching to an electric vehicle, electrifying gas appliances, installing solar panels and household batteries. Combined AEMC says this would save households around $900 a year or 15 per cent of their current spending on energy over the next decade. “The ongoing savings from electrification generally exceed the upfront costs a household would incur,” the AEMC report stated. “While costs and benefits vary between household types, typical payback periods are less than 10 years if households electrify today.” The AEMC says the greater savings can come from switching away from gas. “This is because our typical household starts with ‘all gas’ appliances, whereas last year we assumed they had already partially electrified some gas appliances.” it stated.

The problem is the government is relying on the private sector to fund the transition.

Won't work, because the profits aren't there.

Hence an ASAP transition is a job for the public sector, funded by Treasury - whose  only constraint is available resources, NOT money or the need for profit.

thegreatdivide wrote on Dec 6^th, 2025 at 10:48am:

The problem is the government is relying on the private sector to fund the transition.

The problem is relying on the government for everything.


thegreatdivide wrote on Dec 6^th, 2025 at 10:48am:

Won't work, because the profits aren't there.

And that's why they rely on subsidies, putting up the price of power.

The most recent missive form AEMO said  - "Throughout this transition, the NEM must be both reliable and secure. To be reliable, there must be enough generation to meet consumer needs at any point in time. To be secure, the power system must operate safely within its defined technical limits, withstand disturbances, and be able to restart in the event of a widespread outage."

Renewables can't do that. ::)

They also said - "Despite best endeavours, the power system can, on rare occasions, experience cascading failures resulting in loss of supply to large portions of the power system. Recent examples – including on the Iberian Peninsula and Chile in 2025, Brazil in 2023 and 2018, and South Australia in 2016 – demonstrate how failures to maintain sufficient system security can lead to widespread blackouts with severe consequences."

Which shows how hardened renewables are to external forces, like weather. ::)

https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/tpss/2025-transition-plan-for-system-security.pdf

The ABC said - "The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has warned, however, that while there are enough renewables in the pipeline to cover its closure, supporting infrastructure to keep the grid stable is not expected to be ready."

And - "But he said necessary technology like synchronous condensers, which help to absorb reactive power and keep the grid stable, is not due to be installed until after Eraring’s closure."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-01/energy-grid-not-ready-eraring-coal-aemo/106085200

And then of course the price of Copper etc has skyrocketed. A wind farm uses more copper than a standalone generator.

whiteknight wrote on Dec 6^th, 2025 at 8:43am:

Energy regulator warns of decade-long price pain without rapid renewables push News.com.au December 4, 2025 Australians are being warned their electricity bills could spike if there is not a dramatic increase in energy supply.   :( The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) said households could be paying up to 13 per cent more from 2030-2035. This is based on a lack of supply over the next decade and the current pipeline of renewable energy projects, they say. Australia needs to increase its renewables, particularly wind or risk paying more for power. According to their latest forecasts, power prices will actually fall by 5 per cent a year over the next five years as new projects start. But after that five-year period households could be left paying more as Australia falls behind on renewable projects. When combining the initial decline in power prices before the uplift in costs, AEMC warns Australians will pay about 0.8 per cent a year more for power through to 2035. AEMC chair Anna Collyer said an increase in renewables and batteries through to 2030 was crucial to keeping electricity prices down. “Our price outlook highlights a critical five-year window: residential electricity prices are projected to fall through 2030 as renewable generation and batteries ramp up, but then rise through 2035 if the pace of new investment doesn’t keep ahead of growing electricity demand and planned coal retirement,” she said. The AEMC states it is an outlook and not a guarantee of future prices. The new report puts pressure on the Albanese government’s energy policy which says they can supply 82 per cent of the country through renewables by the end of the decade. Energy minister Chris Bowen says the AEMC makes it clear the importance of moving on from an ageing, unreliable coal powered economy. ”It’s simple; when coal breaks down, your bills go up,” Mr Bowen said. “That’s why we’ve got to keep rolling out reliable renewables and help more households embrace solar and batteries.” According to the energy commission, the retirement of coal power stations and an uplift in home solar will help lower energy prices. The regulator warns that delaying renewable projects post 2030 could increase annual household electricity prices as much as 20 per cent. While poor co-ordination of consumer energy resources could add up to 13 per cent to electricity prices. “The risk of prices rising after 2030 only emerges if we slow down renewable deployment just as coal plants retire,” Ms Collyer said. “This is a timing challenge, not a technology cost issue. With the right pace of investment, we can manage the energy transition while keeping prices stable.” Households are being warned to electricify their homes. According to the AEMC there are steps households can take to avoid this energy price jump. These include households reducing their total energy costs by up to 90 per cent by going fully electric from today. They say this includes switching to an electric vehicle, electrifying gas appliances, installing solar panels and household batteries. Combined AEMC says this would save households around $900 a year or 15 per cent of their current spending on energy over the next decade. “The ongoing savings from electrification generally exceed the upfront costs a household would incur,” the AEMC report stated. “While costs and benefits vary between household types, typical payback periods are less than 10 years if households electrify today.” The AEMC says the greater savings can come from switching away from gas. “This is because our typical household starts with ‘all gas’ appliances, whereas last year we assumed they had already partially electrified some gas appliances.” it stated.

What a load propagandist scaremongering BS.

Trust you WK to fall headlong for that tripe.