40 degrees in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now :o

It's scary Brian -
but it's still been cold in Southern Australia.

From Bwyan's reference -

"A high-pressure system is bringing this unusual heat — and it's hanging around. "

Wow, A weather system is now proof of climate change.  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Weather system - short period

Climate change - LOOONG period (by comparison)

Perhap some of these "climate experts" need tuition in "weather events". ;)

And the "hottest year on record" backed by anomalous warming (but still below zero), in Antarctica. But that's where "anomaly temperatures" lead you. ;)

Let's just discard the unusual nature of the weather, hey, Lee?  Tsk, tsk, tsk... 8-) 8-)

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 26^th, 2024 at 6:36pm:

Let's just discard the unusual nature of the weather, hey, Lee?

Climate is what you get weather is what you expect.

BTW - IPCC AR4 hasn't been changed or rebutted.

"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

Statistical analysis can't tell you what the weather was yesterday nor tomorrow, models can't either. The only model that is close is the Russian one and that doesn't use CO2 as an input. 8-)

So this unusual nature - what is it specifically? Floods in Dubai? Heatwaves in Pakistan? Record cold in Antarctica?

Let us know, I will try to help.

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 26^th, 2024 at 4:38pm:

40 degrees in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now :o

"Expert".

An upper level high pressure system is dragging hot dry Australian desert winds eastward. This will persist for the next 4 days.

Bobby. wrote on Aug 26^th, 2024 at 4:52pm:

It's scary Brian - but it's still been cold in Southern Australia.

That is because you live so far south, you are only a few thousand kilometres from Antarctica. You are below the upper level trough, but far enough south that you will only experience the winds from the Southern Ocean.

I've just been doing some work on a Mango plantation in South East QLD.  All their trees have started to flower early because of this hot snap and they're expecting all of their crop to fail as in about a weeks time, we're going to drop back down to low 20's as the max temps.

I can even see my Lime trees started flowing early, it's usually late October to December, so all those flowers are unlikely to pollinate and create fruit.

This will be the 3rd year in a row they've all flowered early for me...

My peach tree usually start to flower in mid July but this year it is August. It won't beat fruit flies without spraying, which I don't like to do.

.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2024 at 11:30am:

.

https://iili.io/djPeUQ4.md.png

Goodness me. I am such a dopey guy. Nevermind. I can go get those items tonight. Thank you, Sad Kangaroo.

Portent of doom for the Summer.

Heat, dust, and fire.

Australia is tectonically slowly moving North.


Quote:

Global plate tectonic movement as measured by GPS devices. The Australian Plate, which Australia is on, is moving faster than other plates. The Australian Plate is moving about 6.9 cm (2.7 inches) a year in a northward direction and with a small clockwise rotation.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/AustralianPlate.png

Climate change caused it? ;D ;D ;D

Quote:

The Australian Plate, which Australia is on, is moving faster than other plates. The Australian Plate is moving about 6.9 cm (2.7 inches) a year in a northward direction and with a small clockwise rotation.

https://iili.io/djZgWga.th.png https://iili.io/djZPSj4.th.png

lee wrote on Aug 29^th, 2024 at 3:08pm:

Climate change caused it? ;D ;D ;D

It does. That is one of the reasons why Australia is floating north quite quickly.

So now climate change impacts plate tectonics? ::)

"The authors’ interpretations are based on a strong observed correlation between plate tectonic processes, paleogeography, and periods of colder and warmer climate. However, numerous processes modify global climate, and various problems must be solved before
this hypothesis can be tested with Earth system models that predict weathering fluxes and CO2 sources."

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax1657

Correlation is not causation.

lee wrote on Aug 29^th, 2024 at 5:24pm:

So now climate change impacts plate tectonics? ::)

You... really... are... one... misinformed person. It is the other way around. Plate tectonics impact climate change.

'As air speeds up, its pressure goes down. So the faster-moving air above exerts less pressure on the wing than the slower-moving air below'.
'Greater activity of the heated molecules increases the spacing between neighboring molecules and thus reduces air density. The decreasing air density then lowers the pressure exerted by the air. Warm air is thus lighter (less dense) than cold air and consequently exerts less pressure'.

The Roaring Forties drag Australia down but the Tropics take it to Bali with the eastern states spinning 1cm faster/ year.  This can only increase with coal sales to China.

When China stopped importing coal from Australia, Australia found new markets. When China resumed trade with Australia, Australia got a boost from their coal export.

Tropic air pressure drops .6KPa with 1 degree C rise.
Roaring Forties pressure drops 2.2KPa with 1 degree C rise in wind speed.  This gives 1.6Kpa southward force.
However, the wind-load is 2KPa at maximum Roaring Forties velocity on Tasmania at 200kmh (which doesn't affect West Australia at that latitude).  This moves Australia north with .4KPa force, rotating the land-mass counter clockwise.

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 4^th, 2024 at 9:10pm:

lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2024 at 5:24pm: So now climate change impacts plate tectonics? ::) You... really... are... one... misinformed person. It is the other way around. Plate tectonics impact climate change.

So you don't read question marks?  Don't do sarcasm?

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 29^th, 2024 at 4:15pm:

lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2024 at 3:08pm: Climate change caused it? ;D ;D ;D It does. That is one of the reasons why Australia is floating north quite quickly.

So your last reference indicates the opposite. Climate change is an effect, not a cause. ::)

The wind load on West Coast Range Tasmania is 2KPa sq m. x 400 sq km x 1km= 800mill KPa.  This is forcing Australia's land-asset northward by AGW.

chimera wrote on Sep 5^th, 2024 at 3:21pm:

The wind load on West Coast Range Tasmania is 2KPa sq m. x 400 sq km x 1km= 800mill KPa.  This is forcing Australia's land-asset northward by AGW.

Link?

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Tasmania/@-41.4704577,146.1608519,7z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0xaa7aed277e34facf:0x2a8fa5dd29404064!8m2!3d-42.0409059!4d146.8087323!16zL20vMDdjZng?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkwMi4xIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Coast_Range
Roaring 40s
These strong prevailing winds  can produce gusts of up to 200 kilometers per hour, 2000 Pa, 2 KPa.
https://www.nationaltimbergroup.com/app/uploads/2021/10/Windspeed-to-Pressure-conversion-chart-23.9.11.pdf

And NONE of your references mentions AGW. ::)

Here's a nice picture. Australia is the pointy bit down to the right.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures

Chimera's hair is on fire.

The East wind prevails over the West wind (Chinese: 东风压倒西风; pinyin: dōngfēng yādǎo xīfēng), alternatively translated as the east wind overwhelms the west wind, is a slogan coined by Mao Zedong in the early 1950s. Capitalist Europe and US were global warmers, with the heat and wind-load forcing the Himalayas onto China's rice bowl.

The Roaring Forties used to move Tasmania at 40mm year, with locals reporting the grinding sound. It's now 70mm.

Western Australia sees winter weather records broken from top to bottom of state :o

chimera wrote on Sep 5^th, 2024 at 5:49pm:

The Roaring Forties used to move Tasmania at 40mm year, with locals reporting the grinding sound. It's now 70mm.

link?

4,185 earthquakes were recorded in WA between 2013 and 2022.  The highest temperature ever recorded in Australia is 50.7 °C in 2022 at Onslow, WA moving the state at 68mm year and which is broken from top to bottom.

link for lee

Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 29^th, 2024 at 2:32pm:

Portent of doom for the Summer. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/AustralianPlate.png

70mm.

chimera wrote on Sep 5^th, 2024 at 7:02pm:

link for lee Laugh till you cry wrote on Aug 29th, 2024 at 2:32pm: Portent of doom for the Summer. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/AustralianPlate.png       70mm.

And still nothing on AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

chimera wrote on Sep 5^th, 2024 at 3:43am:

post #19

to post #35.  Solid physics and AGW tectonics.

Oh now it is AGW tectonics? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Do you have a link for that? ;)

Yes of course:
Member Run Boards › Environment › 40 degrees in August?

lee wrote on Sep 5^th, 2024 at 2:45pm:

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 4th, 2024 at 9:10pm: lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2024 at 5:24pm: So now climate change impacts plate tectonics? ::) You... really... are... one... misinformed person. It is the other way around. Plate tectonics impact climate change. So you don't read question marks?  Don't do sarcasm?

Your sarcastic rhetoric was so casual, it deserved the reprimand that it received.

'Arctic near-surface wind speed (NWS) plays an increasingly crucial role in influencing the local air-sea interactions and the safety of trans-Arctic shipping, .. Using reanalysis and model simulation data sets, we reveal that the Arctic NWS has increased remarkably since the 1960s, with the strongest increase in the Arctic Ocean surface. . in a warming climate'.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL109385
'The volcanoes on the peninsula have been dormant for around 800 years, but since 2021, there have been eight separate eruptions.'
'“There are two mechanisms at work,” the marine geoscientist said. “Large parts of Iceland were covered by ice caps. When they melt, there is less pressure on the magma chamber. So, for the magma it is easier to break the rock and travel to the Earth’s surface. This has caused the increase in volcanic activity in central Iceland in the past two decades. “The other mechanism is that hot rock melts when the overburden pressure reduces. This can be achieved by upward movement of the rock mass, which is the typical melt generation mechanism at hot spot volcanic systems, or directly by the melting of an overlying ice cap.”
https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024/04/iceland-the-land-of-fire-and-ice.html

An Australian break-through has exposed the wind-load force on Iceland, where AGW tectonics can't be denied.
'Iceland spreads 18–19 mm/year eastward.  Iceland's strongest measured 10-minute sustained wind speed is 225 km/h and the strongest gust 267 km/h.    The volcanic region in northern Tasmania is located in the Launceston area. The basaltic lava flows are located in valleys which drain into Bass Strait.'

chimera wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 9:59am:

An Australian break-through has exposed the wind-load force on Iceland, where AGW tectonics can't be denied.

The rest of your post doesn't reflect anything on AGW.

Please provide the explicit link, you think, supports your contention. ::)

lee wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 12:45pm:

chimera wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 9:59am: An Australian break-through has exposed the wind-load force on Iceland, where AGW tectonics can't be denied. The rest of your post doesn't reflect anything on AGW. Please provide the explicit link, you think, supports your contention. ::)

Chimera doesn't "think".

chimera wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 9:59am:

'Arctic near-surface wind speed (NWS) plays an increasingly crucial role in influencing the local air-sea interactions and the safety of trans-Arctic shipping, ... . in a warming climate'.'

'Hong Kong container ship New Star has become the largest ship to travel across the Arctic with a length of 231 meters.

https://gcaptain.com/chinese-container-ship-becomes-largest-to-travel-through-arctic/

Its height is 30m giving a profile of 6900 sq m. at 2MPa wind-load= 13,800MPa. Less greenhouse gas from ship-fuel is produced because Iceland is moving eastward, shortening the distance. The wind also compresses the ship by 13.8mm during the Arctic travel, which needs volcanic levels of engine exhaust.

chimera wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 2:21pm:

chimera wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 9:59am: 'Arctic near-surface wind speed (NWS) plays an increasingly crucial role in influencing the local air-sea interactions and the safety of trans-Arctic shipping, ... . in a warming climate'.' 'Hong Kong container ship New Star has become the largest ship to travel across the Arctic with a length of 231 meters. https://gcaptain.com/chinese-container-ship-becomes-largest-to-travel-through-arctic/ Its height is 30m giving a profile of 6900 sq m. at 2MPa wind-load= 13,800MPa. Less greenhouse gas from ship-fuel is produced because Iceland is moving eastward, shortening the distance. The wind also compresses the ship by 13.8mm during the Arctic travel, which needs volcanic levels of engine exhaust.

Please get it right.

"NewNew Star"

"The vessel’s owner, Yangpu NewNew Shipping Company"

https://gcaptain.com/chinese-container-ship-becomes-largest-to-travel-through-arctic/

Was the NewNew Star accompanied by one of the three Chinese Icebreakers?

chimera wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 9:59am:

Iceland's strongest measured 10-minute sustained wind speed is 225 km/h and the strongest gust 267 km/h.

So you think it's 'NewNew Star' after splinters of ice at 267kmh have blasted the gloss paint? There's volcanic ash, dead seagulls and crew vomit and the owners find it hard to recognise her anymore.

lee wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 2:48pm:

Was the NewNew Star accompanied by one of the three Chinese Icebreakers?

Not likely in those winds. Iceland may be reported as a missing tecton.

lee wrote on Aug 26^th, 2024 at 7:29pm:

Brian Ross wrote on Aug 26th, 2024 at 6:36pm: Let's just discard the unusual nature of the weather, hey, Lee? Climate is what you get weather is what you expect. BTW - IPCC AR4 hasn't been changed or rebutted. "The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/mythbusters?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwreW2BhBhEiwAavLwfA3B0GYmyaimSiwMpoXoy5L_rJNI8qgC_gYELuXgh5GEdrWBNuqc4xoCr-AQAvD_BwE

The Synthesis Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in March 2023, categorically confirmed that human activity is the overwhelming cause of climate change. The IPCC’s comprehensive assessments are written by hundreds of leading scientists from around the globe, with contributions from thousands of experts, and endorsed by the governments of every country in the world.

Ok..let's ignore the world's governments, most of whom are incompetent; but your quoted statement (ie IPCC AR4) is not a rejection of the IPCC position quoted by me.

The former merely states it's impossible to predict actual outcomes at any particular time in the future, though it is possible to confirm human activity is the 'overwhelming'  cause of climate change.

The fastest subduction plates velocity is ∼ 8.5 cm / yr  and carries AGW heat into the delicately balanced magma zone. Add the friction-heat from wind-forced tectonic shift and the planet is ready to blow.

thegreatdivide wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 3:34pm:

https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/mythbusters?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwreW2BhBhEiwAavLwfA3B0GYmyaimSiwMpoXoy5L_rJNI8qgC_gYELuXgh5GEdrWBNuqc4xoCr-AQAvD_BwE The Synthesis Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released in March 2023, categorically confirmed that human activity is the overwhelming cause of climate change. The IPCC’s comprehensive assessments are written by hundreds of leading scientists from around the globe, with contributions from thousands of experts, and endorsed by the governments of every country in the world. Ok..let's ignore the world's governments, most of whom are incompetent; but your quoted statement (ie IPCC AR4) is not a rejection of the IPCC position quoted by me. The former merely states it's impossible to predict actual outcomes at any particular time in the future, though it is possible to confirm human activity is the 'overwhelming'  cause of climate change.

Let us be very realistic here. If the entire planet's population decided to be environmentally friendly to their best abilities, the world would still have climate change. The only considerable difference being that at least the world would be clean.

The only parts of "human activity" that you can consider driving climate change would be the records of pollution (air, light and noise), and urban heat. Or you could factor in stuff like extinction levels of plant and animal species.

lee wrote on Sep 5^th, 2024 at 2:47pm:

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 29th, 2024 at 4:15pm: lee wrote on Aug 29th, 2024 at 3:08pm: Climate change caused it? ;D ;D ;D It does. That is one of the reasons why Australia is floating north quite quickly. So your last reference indicates the opposite. Climate change is an effect, not a cause. ::)

If you change the climate, you are creating an increased plate tectonic effect.

Simple high school science would elaborate upon that fact.

Much less effect on climate from plate tectonic being the cause... unless the volcanos explode, or the earthquakes shift the mountain ranges.

chimera wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 4:12pm:

The fastest subduction plates velocity is ∼ 8.5 cm / yr  and carries AGW heat into the delicately balanced magma zone. Add the friction-heat from wind-forced tectonic shift and the planet is ready to blow.

Link?

chimera wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 4:12pm:

The fastest subduction plates velocity is ∼ 8.5 cm / yr  and carries AGW heat into the delicately balanced magma zone. Add the friction-heat from wind-forced tectonic shift and the planet is ready to blow.

At the very least, reference where that 8.5 cm / yr subduction is located.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 10:41pm:

chimera wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 4:12pm: The fastest subduction plates velocity is ∼ 8.5 cm / yr  and carries AGW heat into the delicately balanced magma zone. Add the friction-heat from wind-forced tectonic shift and the planet is ready to blow. Link?

I think she means this:
https://www.cnrs.fr/en/press/subduction-zone-geometry-mega-earthquake-risk-indicator

Bobby. wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 10:41pm:

Link?

Abstract in
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X15001235#:~:text=The%20fastest%20plates%20(%20%E2%88%BC%208.5,subducting%20part%20of%20plate%20perimeter

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 6^th, 2024 at 11:33pm:

8.5 cm / yr subduction.

Subduction zones are the major surface expression of the mantle convection process, provide the main driving mechanism for plate tectonics. Subduction zones occur in a horseshoe shape around the edge of the Pacific Ocean,  Canada, Russia, Japan and Indonesia to New Zealand and the southern edge of South America.

'Russia's territory, however, has been warming almost twice as fast as land globally – at 0.51C per decade'. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/climate-change-russia-is-heating-up-almost-twice-as-fast-the-world-warns-scientist/3278123#:~:text=%E2%80%9CRussia's%20territory%2C%20however%2C%20has,the%20Eurasia%20mainland%2C%20he%20said.
 'warming across Canada has been about twice the global average and in the Canadian Arctic, the warming has been about three times higher.'
https://news.westernu.ca/2024/01/expert-insight-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth/#:~:text=Canada's%20unique%20climate&text=In%20general%2C%20warming%20has%20been,much%20slower%20than%20land%20areas

Putin rejects western dominance in warming and has ordered increased heating from Russian forest fires. Alexander Kozlov, Minister of Natural Resources and Environment, is responsible. He is at 4/6 Bolshaya Gruzinskaya Ulitsa, Moscow, and has a target of .75 C per decade. Under Putin's strong grip even reaching 1 degree is possible if all forests are burning using Siberian gas and oil, 24/7. Ukraine wheat-fields are an obvious heat source. Volcanic magma is at a tipping point.

chimera wrote on Sep 7^th, 2024 at 5:34am:

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 11:33pm: 8.5 cm / yr subduction. Subduction zones are the major surface expression of the mantle convection process, provide the main driving mechanism for plate tectonics. Subduction zones occur in a horseshoe shape around the edge of the Pacific Ocean,  Canada, Russia, Japan and Indonesia to New Zealand and the southern edge of South America.

Yes, thank you. I am 45, I have graduated high school. I have obtained a degree that included studying Geography as a major. And I am very capable of researching my own studies.

What I am not capable of is pre-empting some people that throw down links without any frame of reference. Others put down allegations of their opinions without putting up a link to support their argument.

Many lawyers have argued that I have potential. Others argue that I need to quit drinking.

The global warming effect of moving Australia by wind-force is being developed by Mr UnSubRocky and junior partner Chimera.
The only references are in OzPol which is a major centre of Geography, Alcohol and Trump.  Watch this space.

chimera wrote on Sep 7^th, 2024 at 5:08am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 10:41pm: Link? Abstract in https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X15001235#:~:text=The%20fastest%20plates%20(%20%E2%88%BC%208.5,subducting%20part%20of%20plate%20perimeter

OK - where does it say?


Quote:

The fastest subduction plates velocity is ∼ 8.5 cm / yr  and carries AGW heat into the delicately balanced magma zone. Add the friction-heat from wind-forced tectonic shift and the planet is ready to blow.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 7^th, 2024 at 3:09pm:

chimera wrote on Sep 7th, 2024 at 5:08am: Bobby. wrote on Sep 6th, 2024 at 10:41pm: Link? Abstract in https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X15001235#:~:text=The%20fastest%20plates%20(%20%E2%88%BC%208.5,subducting%20part%20of%20plate%20perimeter OK - where does it say? Quote: The fastest subduction plates velocity is ∼ 8.5 cm / yr  and carries AGW heat into the delicately balanced magma zone. Add the friction-heat from wind-forced tectonic shift and the planet is ready to blow.

Bobby, the climate could bend you into a hunchback from temperature differentials.

Cold on one side and hot on the other.

In Bobby's bent-over condition, he could be victimized by Melbourne's lawless black scourge.

Dear LTYC,
you have an over active imagination.

forgiven

namaste

Bobby. wrote on Sep 7^th, 2024 at 3:09pm:

OK - where does it say?

It says ~8.5cm/ year.
The planet is heated. Plates are subducted. The magma flow is balanced.  Heat will add instability. At ~8.5 cm/ year.

Adelaide experiences coldest morning in 100 years :o