"The NSW state Labor government has confirmed that its controversial decision to delay the closure of the country’s biggest coal fired power generator at Eraring was primarily driven by concerns over a possible jump in wholesale electricity prices.

The 2.88 gigawatt (GW) Eraring facility on the central coast was due to close on August, 2025, but under an underwriting deal with the state government which could be worth up to $450 million, Origin Energy will now keep at least two units open until August, 2027, a few months after the next state election.

As Renew Economy has written on many occasions, this decision was always about price rather than the threat of a supply shortfall, which the Australian Energy Market Operator said was unlikely to occur if government tendered projects for new wind, solar and battery storage were delivered on time.

But the failure of Eraring owner Origin Energy to build any new capacity in NSW before the 2025 closure, and delays caused by planning, connection, and commissioning holdups to other projects forced the state government’s hand.

Modelling that the Minns government relied upon – produced by Endgame Economics and ICA Partners – has now been released (or at least bits of it) – and confirms that the greatest benefit of the delayed closure would come from lower prices.

A summary of the Endgame analysis tabled in parliament on Tuesday suggests that the savings on wholesale market prices would total $4.4 billion, with a relatively small benefit of $300 million allocated to increased energy security and $200 million for avoided system strength measures.

The report says this would outweigh the $1.1 billion negative benefits from higher emissions resulting from the burning of more coal, and other costs of $600 million, including $400 million in payments to Origin. Overall, it puts the net benefits at $3.2 billion to $3.5 billion.

“Delaying Eraring’s closure will place downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices,” an excerpt from the report says.

“Energy market modelling price forecasts indicates that if Eraring continues to operate to August 2027, time-weighted average wholesale electricity prices are expected to be around $55 per megawatt-hour lower in 2025-26 and $40 per megawatt-hour lower in 2026-27 than if Eraring were to close in August 2025.”

The full report by Endgame remains commercial in confidence, and so apparently the full modelling and the assumptions it was working on won’t be released. That’s unfortunate, because it is pretty clear that the modelling has already been mugged by reality. "

https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-confirms-eraring-closure-delay-driven-by-fear-of-pre-election-price-shocks/

So to put it succinctly - closing Eraring would have raised prices, so much for cheaper renewables. ::)