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General Discussion >> General Board >> Most farmers getting less rain http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1719345446 Message started by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 5:57am |
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Title: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 5:57am
Here's and interesting graph showing the trend in rain fall across Australia since 1960:
https://www.science.org.au/curious/policy-features/whats-happening-australias-rainfall Most of Australia's population, and most of our agriculture (by value) is located where rainfall is trending down - the east coast from Adelaide to central QLD, and the southwest. The monsoonal (summer/tropical) rains on the other hand are increasing and often coming further south. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 26th, 2024 at 7:14am
The BuMet/CSIRO State of the Climate Reports from 2018 on, which I posted about, said that the southern half of the country is drying out and the northern half is getting wetter so not sure why it is a surprise.
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:04am freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 5:57am:
I'd say the graph is inaccurate. 2 years ago on an outback jaunt into the SW corner of QLD, into Sth Aust to Innamincka then back into NSW at Tibooburra, down to Broken Hill then through Menidee Lakes to Wentworth on the NSW/Vic border, back up through central NSW, to Hay, Hilston, Lake Cargelligo, Parkes, Dubbo, Gilgandra, Narrabri to Goondiwindi & home .... the country was green and raining through most parts. Mennidee Lakes were chocka full. The grain growing country from Hilston north to Gilgandra was in it's 3rd bumper cropping season. Old blokes in the pub at Hilston couldn't remember so many successive bumper years. It had been flooding through a lot of the country on our route. One route we wanted to take was closed. We had rain with us most of the way from Gilgandra north & into QLD. The following year contacts in Gilgandra said they'd had another wet and flooding event which was the start of another bumper year. Last year and this year has seen a lot of rain through those areas and to the coast of NSW. Every 2nd weekend watching the NRL games in Newcastle & Sydney it's been pissing down, like it did again last weekend. I've recently been on an outback loop out to Morven, up to Barcaldine and back through Springsure, the coalfields, Theodore, Crackow, Eidsvold and home. Accept it is dry around Barcaldine(still plenty of grass) the country was green and lush. The cattle rolling fat. A rain band from the far northwest is currently going through Central & SE QLD as I type. It's raining here now - late June in winter. Are you trying out some more Church of the Climate Change Alarmists propaganda? Lake Eyre has been filling since February and water is still flowing into it. https://australianairsafaris.com.au/news/lake-eyre-water-level/ Quote:
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:08am Quote:
Are you attempting to reject climate change because you went out west once while they had a wet season? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:20am freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:08am:
They've been having good seasons for the past 4 years ..... and I've gone out west 4 times in the past 4 years. Climate always changes. It has since the world began. It's not an occurrence that warrants catastrophic alarmism. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Bobby. on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:20am
Dear FD,
would you mind moving this to the Environment MRB? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:21am Bobby. wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:20am:
Who made you King Billy? ::) |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Bobby. on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:29am Gnads wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:21am:
I am only a humble messenger. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Frank on Jun 26th, 2024 at 11:43am freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:08am:
What are the parameters of 'climate change'? How long is weather and when does it become climate? Obviously the weather is different each day, month, year and each locality there is a trend in all sorts of aspects of the weather - hours of sun, temsp, cloud, rain, frost, snow, wind, (water cycle) - which can be statistically aggregated to give us 'climate'. Would a weather station's measurements change if you put it in a park originally, but a hundred years later it is surrounded by concreted car parks and streets and building? Is urbanisation a contributor to 'cimate change' in cities growing very quickly? Forest fires 100 years didnt claim as many lives as they can now because there weren't so many 'eco-friendly' people living is mismanaged forested areas. And so and so forth. Climate change, net zero, rebewables, clean energy, carbon pollution - so many slogans, so many shibboleths to tell religio-political friend from foe. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 11:43am Gnads wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:20am:
What about blind denial? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 26th, 2024 at 12:16pm freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 11:43am:
What about blind indoctrination? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by JC Denton on Jun 26th, 2024 at 12:39pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 7:14am:
this is the precipitation pattern you would expect from a hotter world |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 12:48pm Gnads wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 12:16pm:
You are the one insisting that the statistics are incorrect because you noticed some rain. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 26th, 2024 at 1:46pm
the BOM said at the start of 2023 that we were entering an el nino event.
now after 18 months of above average rainfall, they have scrapped that. seriously, people just make it up as they go along you can fight mother nature if you wish and you'll lose but only 100 % of the time and you certainly cant predict her the morons who think they can predict whats going to happen are morons i dont think anyone has any idea what the future holds in terms of rainfall. we are told the oceans are rising which is patent BS the best bet is to take "personal responsibility" for your energy , water and food requirements, to the greatest extent you can to rely on the "system" is not a fruitful way of moving forward |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Laugh till you cry on Jun 26th, 2024 at 1:57pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
It appears that Aquascoot has decided that horse sense is the only solution to AGW. However, the only evidence Aquacooot has is horse sh!t. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:11pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
It's not a prediction Scoot. It's the trend from the past 60 years. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:14pm freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:11pm:
any evidence that the trend is going to continue? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:18pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:14pm:
I expect so. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:31pm freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 4:18pm:
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/percentage-of-europe-experiencing-moderate-drought-conditions-during-the-20th-century heres the graph of drought conditions for europe for the last century doesnt look like much of a "trend" european_drought.jpg (50 KB | 22
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:25pm Bobby. wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 9:20am:
Why did YOU not cover this, TVI™? You are SUPPOSED to be the Mod of Environment, not? Then why do you only post YouTubes of supposedly funny or cute animals which has NOTHING to do with Environment? Why did you not post this yourself? Same with the article on bleaching of part of the northern GBR? I posted that, in my MRB because you are stupid enough to ban the only poster who could post environmental topics from your MRB? Dear TVI™, PLEASE resign as Environment Mod. Let FD appoint someone capable of modding it? Please? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:38pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 1:46pm:
LOL! How long do you think an El Nino lasts, idiot? The BoM resisted calling an El Nino for some time. The El Nino this time was not the typical hot–dry in eastern Australia, more a very wet El Nino that happens occasionally. The hot water in the central Pacific from the South American post is giving way to cold surface waters—El Nino passing to La Nina. Not a thing wrong with what the BoM reported. Should not the Mod of Environment, joke tho he is, have responded to your crap, Scoot? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:42pm
Maybe Sad Kangaroo and Booby could swap MRBs? Not many left who could Mod it, Booby can’t.
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:47pm
Sad presented the only decent analysis of Dutton’s nuclear “promise.” Booby didn’t!
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:52pm
Let us face it: since Booby stopped posting the crap YouTubes by DuByne he has had no idea what to do with Environment, is totally lost.
Time to move on, why not swap MRBs with Sad Kangaroo? Move all your ice age crap there, why not? Still have a big board then. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 5:07am Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:38pm:
what crap is that, silly billy. the bom tells farmers 18 months ago to prepare for 3 years of low rainfall. and 18 months in says "scrap that, the exact oppodite is occuring " :-/ :-/ :-/ maybe its part of a "trend" ;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 27th, 2024 at 6:36am
Scoot is changing his story. Now it isn’t El Nino/La Nina but wet and dry.
As I said in my previous post, there WAS an El Nino that is changing to a La Nina. An El Nino DOES usually result in hot/dry weather except rarely it causes rainy weather like now. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Bobby. on Jun 27th, 2024 at 7:53am
Dear FD,
would you mind moving this to the Environment MRB? I remain your most faithful and obedient servant sir Bobby |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 27th, 2024 at 8:05am
Pathetic!
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 27th, 2024 at 8:06am
Ever wonder why FD avoids your toilet of a board, TVI™?
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 27th, 2024 at 10:22am Quote:
And yet there is a trend line in your plot. Honestly scoot, your strawmen are getting stupider by the day. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by SadKangaroo on Jun 27th, 2024 at 11:22am
Interesting that the catchment areas for most of the proposed Nuclear sites are in the areas experiencing the decline in rainfall.
What could possibly go wrong. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 27th, 2024 at 11:38am
LOL, the Bradfield scheme might get implemented or we need one SMR to power all the massive reverse osmosis water purifying installations needed to turn seawater into fresh water!
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:13pm freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 10:22am:
really? i think you suffer from "imaginitis" |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by UnSubRocky on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:45pm
The summer was underwhelming for rainfall, here. But other places saw heavy rain totals. This was during an El Nino phase. The last two days here have been consistent rainfall during our (Rockhampton's) dry season. I wish we had more days like this during the summer months.
I spent time in 2010/2011 where we got about 1600mm of rainfall for the year. Another year, we only saw 270mm of rainfall (helped by a late December rainfall). We are expected to enter a La Nina phase by the end of the year. And when we get to that point, it is expected that we have flooding rainfall. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by UnSubRocky on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:51pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 11:38am:
The Bradfield scheme is one big waste of time and resources. It won't be implemented. Better to spend billions on developing an inland river system so that the rainfall that is received out west will not pool in few locations. Make some dams and have river systems that do exist to be channeled into them. Ideally, this can be near townships. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by lee on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:57pm
With this less rainfall - it is amazing that crop yields keep increasing.
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by UnSubRocky on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:00pm lee wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:57pm:
Better farming practices. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by lee on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:33pm
Yep. So rainfall is NOT the be all and end all.
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by UnSubRocky on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:37pm lee wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:33pm:
Our farmers developed a work ethic that they have to be obsessive-compulsive about how they farm. They cannot just rely on it raining every week to keep from suffering drought conditions. The only way our farmers would have better crop yields would be if a volcano sprouted up off the west coast of Australia and started spewing volcanic ash for a week of every year. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:51pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:13pm:
;D Own goal. It's the black dashed line scoot. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:55pm UnSubRocky wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:00pm:
yields are ok but the price of crops (and hence the price of food for urban consumers ) is going to climb very steeply. 1 the AVERAGE age of a farmer in australia is now 60 and many are about to retire 2 the younger generation DO NOT want to work the land 3 energy prices are the main cost of input now, electricity for running irrigators is extremely expensive 4 water prices are going to go up a lot (i am currently on a licence to pump whatever i like, this is changing in the next few years to compulsory meters , which we have to pay for, and a charge per megalitre 5 fertiliser and herbicide costs have increased a lot as these are generally relient on the petro chemical industry 6 the biosecurity costs around fire ants which are being passed over to the producer are significant 7 labor is hard to secure 8 the value of the land is very high (farmers are very asset rich and cash flow poor). as urban folk continue to bid up rural prices with a tree change, many productive farmers will cash out and the land will become non productive back yard |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by UnSubRocky on Jun 27th, 2024 at 2:04pm
My own daughter works on a farm, and she is also a nurse with Queensland Health. Even if she works long hours in the hospital, she also makes time to help her partner on the property she lives.
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 27th, 2024 at 3:44pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:55pm:
This has been going on since the industrial revolution. Food has gotten cheaper. It used to be that close to 100% of human effort was devoted to feeding ourselves. No-one is taking up farming because that number is now just a few percent and still dropping. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 3:57pm freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:51pm:
are you channelling John Smith Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century the black line shows that on average, 20 % of europe experiences drought each year and the TREND line shows that it was 20 % a century ago and 20 % at the end of the century. ie there is no more drought today then 100 yrs ago (at least in europe). please re read and apolgise :-[ :-[ :-[ |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 4:03pm freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 3:44pm:
garbage food has gotten cheaper. and hence health has suffered The University of Southern Queensland associate professor says Australian farmers are seeing steep increases in expenses. Dr Lyons said costs had increased roughly 30-to-60 per cent in the past five years, largely due to fuel and stronger industrial relations laws. In comparison, Dr Lyons said tinned produce was typically done very cheaply overseas in enormous quantities by large conglomerates. He said canned food had a much longer shelf life, meaning it was easier to produce and store in bulk without worrying about spoilage. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 27th, 2024 at 5:36pm aquascoot wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 3:57pm:
are you channelling John Smith Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century the black line shows that on average, 20 % of europe experiences drought each year and the TREND line shows that it was 20 % a century ago and 20 % at the end of the century. ie there is no more drought today then 100 yrs ago (at least in europe). please re read and apolgise :-[ :-[ :-[/quote] That is not what it shows. Did they not teach you haw to read graphs in primary school? In any case, I am glad you have been able to identify the trend line. Before we spend too much time teaching you have to read a graph, would you like to clarify whether you are trying to make some kind of point, and what that point might be? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 5:45pm freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 5:36pm:
::) ::) do you agree the line shows that 20 % of europe was in drought in 1900, 1910, 1920,1930,1940,1950, 1960,1970, 1980, 1990, 2000? please explain how the trend is going up ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 27th, 2024 at 5:54pm Quote:
No. I know how to read a graph. Before we spend too much time teaching you have to read a graph, would you like to clarify whether you are trying to make some kind of point, and what that point might be? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by aquascoot on Jun 27th, 2024 at 7:26pm freediver wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 5:54pm:
not until you go and learn how to read a graph ::) ::) ::) |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 28th, 2024 at 8:07am aquascoot wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 7:26pm:
Are you trying to outdo Brian Ross? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Jovial Monk on Jun 28th, 2024 at 8:40am UnSubRocky wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:51pm:
I was being sarcastic there. Mind you, another 50 years of the drying trend in the southern half and it may become inevitable. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by UnSubRocky on Jun 28th, 2024 at 12:47pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 28th, 2024 at 8:40am:
Alrighty... you tricked me there. I was once a serious advocate for putting the Bradfield scheme into action. But, people convinced me that they did an in depth feasibility study on the matter. It would have been a failure. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 28th, 2024 at 7:05pm freediver wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 12:48pm:
It wasn't some rain dickhead it was 4 years of rain & in some locations flooding rains in most seasons. Menindee Lakes don't fill without substantial rain in far north QLD Gulf country flowing down into the Darling River catchment .... this has happened at least 3 years in a row .... enough to maintain the levels in Menindee Lakes for a similar time despite the irrigation demands & also allowing further releases for the Murray river system. You & your scaremongering graphs are just BS. Do you have a problem reading or are you just totally obseesed in you beliefs about AGW? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 28th, 2024 at 8:37pm Gnads wrote on Jun 28th, 2024 at 7:05pm:
So what? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:36am Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 26th, 2024 at 8:38pm:
There are 2 different weather patterns that occur in the Pacific Ocean and can affect weather around the world. El Nino brings dry & drought conditions. Droughts as you know can last for years. El Niño years are never "occasionally wet". La Niña brings about the wet years. Which we've had for the past 3 to 4 years at least. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:45am Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 11:38am:
Reverse Osmosis desalination plants are extremely expensive to operate.... that's why many in Australia aren't operating & have become white elephants. The one on the Gold Coast is a perfect example. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:47am Gnads wrote on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:45am:
They might start operating on an intermittent basis with more wind and solar power production. There will be plenty of times when electricity is very cheap. This sort of thing would help reduce the need for storage. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:47am lee wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 12:57pm:
Yes ... we are going into our 4th bumper season for grains, cotton, canola and sugar cane. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:49am UnSubRocky wrote on Jun 27th, 2024 at 1:37pm:
What a load of bollocks. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:53am freediver wrote on Jun 28th, 2024 at 8:37pm:
re: your graph ..... so what? |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 30th, 2024 at 12:05pm Gnads wrote on Jun 30th, 2024 at 11:53am:
I explained the point in the OP. Most of our farmers are getting less rain than 60 years ago. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jun 30th, 2024 at 12:28pm freediver wrote on Jun 30th, 2024 at 12:05pm:
I don't know where you got your graph. But it looks pretty dry to me approx 60 years ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/knowledge-centre/previous-droughts.shtml Picture0087.jpg (73 KB | 11
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jun 30th, 2024 at 12:38pm
That is not from 60 years. In any case, I was not referring to a comparison of only two specific years. And I provided the source in the OP.
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jul 1st, 2024 at 9:04am freediver wrote on Jun 30th, 2024 at 12:38pm:
There is a whole heap of graphs in that link. Not just the one I copied & put here. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by freediver on Jul 1st, 2024 at 10:48am Gnads wrote on Jul 1st, 2024 at 9:04am:
That's nice dear. |
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Title: Re: Most farmers getting less rain Post by Gnads on Jul 1st, 2024 at 1:18pm freediver wrote on Jul 1st, 2024 at 10:48am:
Oh good better than yours then Agnes? |
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