Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2024 at 12:50pm:

“It's not a question of reefs dying or reefs disappearing, it's reef ecosystems transforming into a new configuration,” says marine biologist Terry Hughes, from James Cook University in Townsville, Australia.

This is the very same Terry Hughes who declared great patches of it "dead".

"Two-thirds of the corals in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef have died in the reef’s worst-ever bleaching event, according to our latest underwater surveys."

Terry Hughes

Distinguished Professor, James Cook University, James Cook University

https://theconversation.com/how-much-coral-has-died-in-the-great-barrier-reefs-worst-bleaching-event-69494

Now apparently it has only changed symbionts. Something that is entirely natural; unless you really believe Terry Hughes. ::)

Poor JM has been fooled more than once by Terry Hughes. It reminds me of a quote... something about being fooled once. ;)

Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters.

JM likes to show the aperture for CO2 in his climate function. ;)

Now if CO2 is increasing, why is OLWR (Outgoing Long Wave Radiation) going up? Because according to the theory CO2 traps the OLWR and should therefore reduce the amount of OLWR.

https://i.postimg.cc/PrfJY0jT/ceres-olr-copy-topaz.png

Not seeing it. ::)

Monk is a conman and grifter.
He sells hair tonic down at his local backwater Tasmanian markets. So far, he still has bumfluff for a beard.

OLWR -

Outgoing Longwave Radiation   -   Climate Model

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/1/10/1520-0442_1988_001_0998_aeolrc_2_0_co_2.xml

Poor JM -


Jovial Monk wrote on May 14^th, 2024 at 6:58pm:

For the other easily duped idiot posting in “Environment” lees would do well to read: https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/10/1539

From his paper -

" The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature. An observational estimate of the derivative of the OLR with respect to temperature of 2.93 +/− 0.3 W/m2K is obtained. "

So now CO2 doesn't trap OLR. It is the clouds. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course JM doesn't say how it both traps and increases OLWR.

And it even includes the precise graphic. ;)

"This substantial warm bias is identified at global scales over land (Allan et al., 2022) and may be linked to a positive energy imbalance of about 1 W·m−2 in the model's pre-industrial spin-up experiment and underestimation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the pre-industrial control experiment compared to observations (Tatebe et al., 2019).

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.8169

Warm biases? Underestimation of OLR pre-industrial? But the science is settled. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"For this figure I’ve picked off a few model simulations from the CMIP5 archive (just one realization per model), computed annual means and then used a 7 yr triangular smoother to knock down ENSO noise, and plotted the global mean short and long wave TOA fluxes as perturbations from the start of this smoothed series. The longwave (L) and shortwave (S) perturbations are both considered positive when directed into the system, so N = L +S is the net heating.  The only external forcing agent that is changing here is CO2, which (in isolation from the effects of the changing climate on the radiative fluxes) acts to heat the system by decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation (increasing L). But in most of these models, L is actually decreasing over time, cooling the atmosphere-ocean system.  It  is an increase in the net incoming shortwave (S) that appears to be heating the system —  in all but one case.  This qualitative result is common in GCMs.  I have encountered several confusing discussions of this behavior recently, motivating this post."

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/blog_held/46-how-can-outgoing-longwave-increase-as-co2-increases/

Or another one -

"The greenhouse effect is well-established. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, reduce the amount of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to space; thus, energy accumulates in the climate system, and the planet warms."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1412190111

What about all the cities and the activity and lights that light up the night-side like fires.
Is the warming being affected or increased by the night side of the planet, when it should be the cooling side?

Jovial Monk wrote on May 30^th, 2024 at 4:14pm:

Nice warm day? Quote: New Delhi recorded its highest temperature ever measured on Wednesday — 126 degrees Fahrenheit, or 52.3 degrees Celsius — Ouch! [quote]In New Delhi, where walking out of the house felt like walking into an oven, officials feared that the electricity grid was being overwhelmed and that the city’s water supply might need rationing. The past 12 months have been the planet’s hottest ever recorded, and cities like Miami are experiencing extreme heat even before the arrival of summer. Scientists said this week that the average person on Earth had experienced 26 more days of abnormally high temperatures in the past year than would have been the case without human-induced climate change.

India is not alone. Note that there is no El Nino boosting temperatures. This is AGW.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/world/asia/india-delhi-hottest-day-ever.html

[/quote]

So there is no such thing as UHI? ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/delhi-population

Or this?

"Record 52.9 degrees Celsius in Delhi's Mungeshpur was 'error in sensor': IMD"

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/national/heat-wave-intensifies-in-north-central-india-record-529-degrees-celsius-in-delhis-mungeshpur-was-error-in-sensor-imd

or this?

"The Safdarjung weather observatory, which serves as the marker for the entire city, registered a maximum temperature of 46.8 degree Celsius on Wednesday, the highest in 80 years. It was six degrees higher than the normal expected at this time of the year, and the highest that the station has recorded since 1944. But it was substantially lower than the temperature at Mungeshpur, located on the northern outskirts of Delhi, bordering Haryana."

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/at-52-3-degrees-celsius-delhi-records-highest-ever-temperature-9359221/

or this? -

"Tonga’s volcanic eruption could cause unusual weather for the rest of the decade, new study shows "

https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074

And then -


Jovial Monk wrote on May 30^th, 2024 at 4:51pm:

He then mentions some other readings, higher than the one I mentioned, one of which was wrong, apparently. What relevance this foofaraw has to anything I don’t know.

The 52.3C as reported by Aljazeer was at Mungeshpur, so perhaps the NY times was wrong. ;)

"People in northern India are struggling with an unrelenting, weeks-long heatwave, with temperature in India’s capital soaring to a national record-high of 52.3 degrees Celsius (126.1 Fahrenheit), the government’s weather bureau said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which reported “severe heatwave conditions”, recorded the temperature in the New Delhi suburb of Mungeshpur on Wednesday afternoon, smashing the previous national record in the desert of Rajasthan by more than one degree Celsius."

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/5/29/photos-north-india-swelters-as-new-delhi-records-highest-ever-temperature-of-49-9c


Never let a good crisis go to waste. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

And the IMD is still blaming the AWS. ;)

So poor JM doesn't understand about faulty AWS. Apparently it means it is ok at 52.3 but not ok at 52.9. ;)

"Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju addressed the anomaly in a post on X, stating that the recorded temperature of 52.3 degrees Celsius in Delhi is "very unlikely" and is not yet official. He indicated that senior IMD officials are verifying the data.

"It is not official yet. Temperature of 52.3 °C in Delhi is very unlikely. Our senior officials in IMD have been asked to verify the news report. The official position will be stated soon," Kiren Rijiju said in the post."

https://www.indiatvnews.com/delhi/imd-clarifies-record-52-degrees-celsius-delhi-weather-update-mungeshpur-as-sensor-error-kiren-rijiju-maximum-temperature-2024-05-29-934107

But good enough for JM's purposes. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 3^rd, 2024 at 7:53am:

More UHI  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D Quote: Scott Duncan@ScottDuncanWX·13h Record heatwave unfolding in the Middle East. Iraq 🇮🇶 records its first 50°C (122°F) in the month of May and Kuwait 🇰🇼 breaks its May national record with 50.6°C (123°F).

So let's see -

Iraq (actually Basra) supposedly recorded 50C in May. On May 31. Actually not.

31 May made 49C.

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/iraq/basra/historic

Past two weeks. Oh dear. ::)

Poor JM. He can't even verify the blogs he uses. ;D ;D ;D ;D

They said it, it must be true. ;)

Monk is a drunk who plays 'spin the bottle' with himself when making predictions.  ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 14^th, 2024 at 2:08am:

Models doing well predicting temperatures: Quote: Keith Strong@drkstrong·4h HOW GOOD ARE THE CLIMATE MODELS? In blue is the average of 40 of the top climate models. The lighter shading shows the range of results. Here is plotted the result for July 2023 - the models seem to be underestimating the surface temperature but its well within the uncertainties.

So if you only pick the top 40 all's good. Until maybe next year and we will have another Top 40. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course we can't check the Top 40 is sacrosanct and cannot be named. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 18^th, 2024 at 12:38pm:

Another thing that will happen as AGW heats the globe: more hail falls and bigger hailstones.

Well the BBC says "maybe".

"Rising global temperatures might be causing hailstorms to become more violent, with larger chunks of ice and more intense downpours"

...

"As the planet continues to warm, areas where hailstorms are favoured are likely to shift," says Brimelow. "An area now where sufficient moisture is a limiting factor may become more moist and consequently, hailstorm frequency may increase."

"A combination of observations of changes already taking place and climate modelling has led researchers to conclude that hailstorms will become more frequent in Australia and Europe, but there will be a decrease in East Asia and North America. But they also found that hailstorms will become generally more intense."


https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

From the linked study -

"Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070)."

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321.epdf?sharing_token=GY5rAiZioi7yjDIIa8KovNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MQIvlxB_BBeg8RsbqAJFOekWYPIS7qDOULUz8eSzKaDATBO0Ii5NUvpSivWQL0XqbMFhjGitbBleO2_dNz7_IwmHwOCQjgrtQ6uDAbplPprTaqmQ56F6-9OZxCZQxJ3YedHwNyhPwuuph4NxzllaRL5afKnLy-4-EDFDH_4ZTbjhMl_ELRPuJS7JvsuWfR4C03_TIjDw7bnGZp2BQ3PHv2QSyz_LqZpfz7-mE-B_JqwQ%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.com

direct -

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321

Ah "Novel" modelling. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk lives too close to Antarctica.
he lives in the roaring 40s -  (he is at -43 degrees latitude )-
the vast circumpolar currents and winds that encircle the world in the Southern ocean.
Nowhere else in the world comes close to the harsh climate of the roaring 40s.
He lives there with a tropical dog called Socks.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 18^th, 2024 at 4:48pm:

lees has a sneer at “models” but that is meaningless.

Poor JM. The models have not been calibrated, verified or validated. "but they are good, believe me" ;D ;D ;D ;D

So after saying stuff about how useless I was he now thanks me. ;)


"Re: The pointy end of AGW.
Reply #35 - Today at 4:02pm Quote
Quote:
The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change


Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modelling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.


https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3321


BBC article—worth reading in full:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220314-how-big-can-hailstones-grow

Thanks to lees for finding these interesting article supporting my post on hail."

But he still agrees with the "novel modelling approach". ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 3:06pm:

We are starting to see “atmospheric rivers” and those result in the dumping of HUGE amounts of rain—a warming planet with warming oceans sees more evaporation followed inevitably by precipitation.

"atmospheric river, any long, narrow, and concentrated horizontal corridor of moisture in Earth’s troposphere. Such formations transport vast amounts of water vapor—at flow rates more than double that of the Amazon River—and heat from tropical regions near the Equator toward the middle and higher latitudes. They serve as the primary source of horizontal water transport in the midlatitudes, providing more than half of the precipitation to coastal areas in parts of Europe, North America, South America, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia and facilitating the movement of more than 90 percent of the world’s moisture from the tropics to the poles. Most atmospheric rivers can be found in the North Pacific, Atlantic, southeastern Pacific, and South Atlantic oceans away from the tropics, and they produce moderate amounts of rain and snow. However, some atmospheric rivers are responsible for extreme precipitation and flooding events that may last up to several days in some regions. An average of four to five atmospheric rivers are active in Earth’s atmosphere at any given time."

https://www.britannica.com/science/atmospheric-river

But somehow we are just starting to see them. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

atmospheric rivers?

Climate alarmist talk.

How about heavy rain.  ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:21pm:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/ranking-atmospheric-rivers-new-study-finds-world-o...

"A new study using NASA data shows that a recently developed rating system can provide a consistent global benchmark for tracking these “rivers in the sky.” "

...

"In the new study, scientists built a database of global atmospheric river events from 1980 to 2020, using a computer algorithm to automatically identify tens of thousands of the events in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), a NASA re-analysis of historical atmospheric observations."

So they re-analysed weather, with a model, and found, surprise, surprise, it is worse than we thought. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 27^th, 2024 at 4:24pm:

Maybe that is why the El Nino last summer was such a wet, cool El Nino?

And nothing to do with huge amounts of water projected by a certain volcano. What goes up, must come down. ;)

Thanks Lee -

Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 10:07am:

Jesus, just as AGW is starting to kick our arses, the US does something really really stupid: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine

What poor JM doesn't understand it only removes the power of unelected bureaucrats the power to "interpret" legislation. It can still be legislated. Power that should never have been given to bureaucrats. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jun 30^th, 2024 at 8:19pm:

Quote: Abstract The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), yet estimates of air-sea CO2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi4355

Poor JM - Models all the way down. Models are NOT data. ;)

Lack of real science posts there backed by links etc to authoritative websites (Nature etc journals, ABC, BBC, NASA/NOAA/Copernicus etc etc) means OzPol is sinking in the SEO rankings so people looking for a discussion board see other boards long before OzPol pops up in the listings on page 13 or so.

THAT is why OzPol is headed down the gurgler—an idiot is in charge of an important MRB.[/quote]

Now the BBC and ABC are authoritative. They only repeat, which doesn't make them authorities on anything. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7^th, 2024 at 4:48pm:

“Certainly a pretty anomalous event that we’re expecting here, which looks like it will continue through at least midweek,” Asherman said.

Now even anomalous events are proof of AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Bobby. wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2024 at 1:21pm:

Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters.

Says the fan of Humpty!!!!

Aussie wrote on Jul 8^th, 2024 at 12:23pm:

Bobby. wrote on Apr 23rd, 2024 at 1:21pm: Monk is easily fooled by conmen and grifters. Says the fan of Humpty!!!!

Have you got a problem Aussie?

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2024 at 12:20pm:

Hurricane Beryl became a Cat 5 storm 2 weeks earlier than any other Cat 5 on record. Now in the southern US:

As Joe Bastardi wrote in December - If the water temperature in July is similar to August's water temperature don't be surprised by an early Cat 5.

As noted Beryl arrived as a Cat 1, not a Cat 5. It rapidly degraded to a tropical storm. And we have better tracking now than in the past. ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 24^th, 2024 at 2:48pm:

The little puke ruining Environment and OzPol shows his abysmal ignorance. Did not know about global average temperature. What a fucking clown!

Poor JM. Doesn't know that Copernicus uses models and not real world temperatures. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course, he also doesn't know about intrinsic properties. ;)

And now JM thinks a baby scarcity is an environmental problem, not economic or anything else.

You would think fewer babies might actually be good for the environment. Less disposable nappies, less land fill. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 31^st, 2024 at 7:18am:

I believe it was fear of AGW. World is warming, evidence exists that for the last 10 years the warming has accelerated.

Of course the "accelerated warming" is at the poles. But the Arctic still refuses to enter Al Gore's death spiral, and still exists. ;)

And SST's -


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2024 at 5:27pm:

Sea temperatures not cooling either: Quote: Zack Labe @ZLabe Despite El Niño fading, the mean global sea surface temperature averaged over the last three months was the highest on record relative to any other April to June period... Data from @NOAA ERSSTv5: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html

The funny thing about the SSt's. -

"Monthly values for 1854/01- 2024/06"

They don't really know average SST's accurately back then.

More -


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2024 at 7:46am:

Here we show that the January–March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum.

So back to 1900 they use Reynolds ESTIMATED SST's. Estimations are not science, they are best guesses and  can never be data. And then - "The Coral Sea and GBR have experienced a strong warming trend since 1900 (Fig. 1f). January–March SSTAs averaged over the GBR are strongly correlated (ρ = 0.84, P ≪ 0.01) with those in the broader Coral Sea (Fig. 1f), including when the long-term warming trend is removed from both time series (ρ = 0.69, P < 0.01; Supplementary Fig. 4). "

That is before the IPCC say CO2 had any effect. So natural warming started after the LIA. Woopee doo. ::)

And also "The January–March mean SSTs averaged over the five mass bleaching years during the period 2016–2024 are 0.77 °C higher than the 1961–90 January–March averages in both the Coral Sea and the GBR."4

So corals with over 400 million years of climate cycles are sensitive to that small change. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

And then he talks about CMIP6 - you know those models that are running way too hot. ;)

When Monk farts in his bed, he thinks its Global Warming in his dreams.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 2:18pm:

Lees uses WUWT or NoTricksZone to get his fix of AGW denial. Since AGW is real and since the globe SHOULD be cooling from natural forcings poor lees doesn’t really get far.

That's his level of debate. Won't look at the actual papers, just relies on blogs like DeSMOG BLOG. No criticism of anything he posts on his shite site, all's good. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 3:01pm:

Do NOT reply lees, you are BANNED from here, remember?

Sorry but I have replied, just not in your nonsense, anti-science, model-led site. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

And more -


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 10^th, 2024 at 3:01pm:

(Locked the thread to prevent the idiot lees from replying—and copping a forum–wide ban. A little ThankYou would have been nice but was beyond lees.)

He has such delusions of competence. ;D ;D ;D ;D

And when did he add the modification?

Last Edit: Today at 1:31pm by Jovial Monk »

Well after I wrote. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 11^th, 2024 at 3:33pm:

Temperatures are increasing in line with predictions from the models.

Except in the Antarctic. So AGW is not Global. ;)

""Record cold temperatures were observed in our Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) network as well as other locations around the region," said Matthew A. Lazzara of the Antarctic Meteorological Research and Data Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison).

"These phases were marked by new record low temperatures recorded at both staffed and automatic weather stations, spanning East Antarctica, the Ross Ice Shelf, and West Antarctica to the Antarctic Peninsula."

"The highest point, Kunlun Station, recorded its lowest temperature ever observed at -79.4°C, which was about 5°C lower than the monthly average," added Prof. Minghu Ding from State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. "Interestingly, at the same time, record-breaking high temperatures were occurring in South America, which is relatively close to Antarctica." "

https://phys.org/news/2024-06-antarctic-cold-shatter-global-late.html

So if High Temperatures are symptoms of AGW is the reverse true? Or are high temperatures proof of AGW, whilst cold temperatures are merely weather? ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 12^th, 2024 at 8:31am:

Before recent heating—and this was discussed but the idiot has forgotten it I guess—it was said that because of the 280ppm CO2 in the air Earth had an average temperature of +15°C instead of the -18°C it would have without any GHGs.

So according to NOAA "Prior to the Industrial Revolution, CO2 levels were consistently around 280 ppm for almost 6,000 years of human civilization."

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels




So +15°C for 6,000 years. So if CO2 were the driver of climate change, wouldn't that mean temperatures were stable? But that would mean the Minoan, Roman and MWP were figments of the imagination. When humanity soared. When they were mining in the Alsps, only now being revealed. When elephants crossed the Alps.

Or of course it was natural, and that means it could be some or all natural. ;)


Of course with HadCRuT they can tell the global temperature back to 1850 to 7 decimal places. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/crutem5/data/CRUTEM.5.0.2.0/diagnostics/CRUTEM.5.0.2.0.summary_series.global.monthly.csv

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 13^th, 2024 at 5:12pm:

How close are we to tipping points? —HM can the oceans warm before coral reefs die world wide? Lots of people rely on reefs for food, income, employment. —ditto with land ice sheets? The New York Times considers: Quote: Right now, every moment of every day, we humans are reconfiguring Earth’s climate bit by bit. Hotter summers and wetter storms. Higher seas and fiercer wildfires. The steady, upward turn of the dial on a host of threats to our homes, our societies and the environment around us.

Seeing as the IPCC sees no tipping points. No increase in global rainfall, Higher seas? They have been rising for 2,000 years.

Fiercer wildfires? What else do you expect when you don't reduce fuel loads? The total are burnt is actually less.

But for what the IPCC Physical Science Basis actually says see page 90 of chapter 12 with the explanations at the bottom. There is NO CLIMATE CRISIS. Tipping points would infer there is.

So the highest SST's in 400 years for the GBR, as fare back as they could go. And they KNOW ocean temperatures back that far?

400 years ago? The LIA? Ocean temperatures are warmer than the LIA? Be still my beating heart.

https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-024-07672-x/MediaObjects/41586_2024_7672_Fig2_HTML.png

Strangely the GBR historical shows similar temperatures to current, and all based on estimations.

"Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07672-x#Sec3

UnSubRocky wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2024 at 12:17pm:

Don't be overly pedantic, Monk. Weather forecasts change daily. Sometimes weather forecasts change hourly. Climate forecasts change within the month. The Bureau makes concessions that variations in weather patterns happen. So, they update their climate models every 2 weeks. You can read about it on their website. UnSubRocky's weather predictions: November should see above-average rainfall. December onwards will be a heavy rainfall season where I live.

Monk is very pedantic - he only sees the world from his tiny peanut brain.
He needs to stop stealing my environment topics.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2024 at 8:27pm:

Here we use 0.1° global ocean model simulations to explore whether drift connections exist between more northern, temperate landmasses and the Antarctic coastline.

Models all the way down. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 7:26am:

A shocking new study has made startling revelations about the rise in global temperatures. A team of scientists analysed Pacific Ocean sediments and found that the world can witness up to 14 degrees rise in temperatures, far more than what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted.

From the underlying paper - which didn't even get a guernsey -

https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs43247-024-01531-3/MediaObjects/43247_2024_1531_Fig2_HTML.png

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01531-3#Sec2

So precisely ONE model predicted 25C rise.  Two models post-1975 show a 1.3C rise and historical show a 5C rise. And they use CMIP6/PMIP4. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Hi lee -

25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 1:52pm:

As I knew would happen lees has “refuted” the above paper. No doubt there were lots of  Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin and some  Wink among the crap lees would have posted.

He can't even critique what was posted. Just too funny. ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 13^th, 2024 at 9:03pm:

PubPeer comments: Quote: One possibility is that what the analysis has found is a correlation between temperature and short-term variations in atmospheric CO2.

I hate to tell you JM, possibilities are NOT refutation. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Now "lee" is doing half-court three-pointers.

Bobby. wrote on Aug 30^th, 2024 at 3:03pm:

Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Monk missed a decimal point.

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:48pm:

Bobby. wrote on Aug 30th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::) Monk missed a decimal point.

Yet he reckons he's a scientist.    ::)

Bobby. wrote on Sep 14^th, 2024 at 3:58pm:

UnSubRocky wrote on Sep 14th, 2024 at 3:48pm: Bobby. wrote on Aug 30th, 2024 at 3:03pm: Hi lee - 25°C is bullshit - Monk doesn't know.   ::) Monk missed a decimal point. Yet he reckons he's a scientist.    ::)

He knows stuff that you miss. And you guys know stuff that he misses.

Monk has referenced an article which contains a falsehood:

https://www.wionews.com/science/earth-can-get-hotter-by-25-degrees-shocking-new-climate-study-predicts-753877


Quote:

Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees, shocking new climate study predicts New ZealandEdited By: Anamica SinghUpdated: Aug 28, 2024, 09:39 AM IST

The actual paper is here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47676-9

It says:


Quote:

Defining the relationship between the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature is essential for understanding present environmental changes and modelling future climate trends. Geologic data can provide critical context, as well as possible analo gues, for our future. For example, as compared to today’s global annual temperatures of 14.5°C1, the middle Miocene (ca. 15 million years ago; Ma)was 18.4°C2–4, equivalent to that predicted for the year 2100 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario5,6. Thus, studying the past 15 million years (Myr) may provide a series of climate analogues relevant for possible near-future climates.

The actual rise is 4 degrees.

I did a search on the .pdf and there is nothing to back up the claim that
"Earth can get hotter by 25 degrees"


There is another site that also runs with the false story:
https://scitechdaily.com/earths-temperature-could-increase-by-25-degrees-startling-new-research-reveals-that-co2-has-more-impact-than-previously-thought/


Quote:

Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees: Startling New Research Reveals That CO2 Has More Impact Than Previously Thought By Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea ResearchAugust 27, 2024

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 15^th, 2024 at 6:23am:

In the Abstract: Quote: we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively.

Note: Nowhere do they say that these modelled sensitivities are additive. Indeed how could they when the CO2 is modelled in both.   Quite apart from which "13.9 °C and 7.2 °C per doubling of pCO2, respectively" would mean 21.1 °C, not 25 °C per doubling.

And...

"For example, as compared to today’s global annual temperatures of 14.5 °C1, the middle Miocene (ca. 15 million years ago; Ma) was 18.4 °C2,3,4, equivalent to that predicted for the year 2100 using the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario5,6. "

RCP8.5? Oh noes. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Has anyone ever read "Chaos Theory"? JM subscribes to the plausibility of 'absolute chaos' in relation to carbon levels doubling in the near future. He is simply wrong.

Without control, chaos implodes.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 18^th, 2024 at 7:11am:

Re: Record flooding in Europe https://x.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1835397563396096240

Except Scott Duncan doesn't describe the floods as "Records".

Flooding disaster unfolding right now in Central Europe."

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 20^th, 2024 at 10:06am:

The danger of microplastics is real and increasing.

from The Conversation -

"The scientific evidence is now more than sufficient: collective global action is urgently needed to tackle microplastics – and the problem has never been more pressing."

...

"More data is needed on microplastics in human foods such as land-animal products, cereals, grains, fruits, vegetables, beverages, spices, and oils and fats.

The concentrations of microplastics in foods vary widely – which means exposure levels in humans around the world also varies. However, some estimates, such as humans ingesting a credit card’s worth of plastic every week, are gross overstatements. "

It means send more money. ;)

Not bad, lee.

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 27^th, 2024 at 9:02pm:

Helene’s Cat 4 landfall gives the U.S. a record eight Cat 4 or Cat 5 Atlantic hurricane landfalls in the past eight years (2017-2024), seven of them being continental U.S. landfalls. That’s as many Cat 4 and 5 landfalls as occurred in the prior 57 years.

And? ::)


Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 27^th, 2024 at 9:02pm:

Despite numbers of hurricanes being less than predicted does not mean that hurricane numbers are decreasing:

Actually the prediction was that they would be more intense.

"There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/how-climate-change-is-making-hurricanes-more-dangerous/

And they didn't have named storms before 1950. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 28^th, 2024 at 1:59pm:

Deaths, damage from Helene: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/27/weather/hurricane-helene-florida Not 4" but 4' of flooding.

Now flooding has a lot to do with runoff. Runoff is impacted by poor drainage. And subsidence. But not Climate. ::)

Ft Myers and Naples have subsidence problems.

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 10^th, 2024 at 12:00am:

Quote: 'An existential threat affecting billions' Three-quarters of Earth's land became permanently drier in last 3 decades Climate change is causing unprecedented drying across the Earth — and five billion people could be affected by 2100, a new UN report has warned. Climate change has made three-quarters of the Earth's land permanently drier in the last three decades, a landmark United Nations (UN) report has warned. 77.6% of Earth's land has become drier in the last three decades compared to the 30 years prior, with drylands expanding by an area larger than India to cover 40.6% of the land on Earth, except for Antarctica. And the findings, released in a new report by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification ((UNCCD), warn that if the trend continues, up to five billion people could live in drylands by the century's end — causing soils to deplete, water resources to dwindle, and vital ecosystems to collapse. "For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe," Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD executive secretary, said in a statement. "Droughts end. When an area's climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth." https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/an-existential-threat-affecting-billions-three-quarters-of-earths-land-became-permanently-drier-in-last-three-decades Related: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/precipitation-the-source-of-all-fresh-water-can-no-longer-be-relied-upon-global-water-cycle-pushed-out-of-balance-for-1st-time-in-human-history Maybe I could have posted this in Environment but why change a trend of discussing anything but the environment there? Besides which the mentally deficient Mod there has me banned on some bullshit reason.

So let's have a look. By the UN, not scientists.

Ibrahim Thiaw, the UNCCD executive secretary - So where did he get his "data"? "n high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, expanding drylands are forecast across the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the entire Mediterranean Region, the Black Sea coast, large parts of southern Africa, and southern Australia."

Oh dear.

Barron Orr - offers no proof of his claims.

The second link has ONE hit fro desertification, but curiously offers no link to a study.

https://watercommission.org/

Poor JM the fact free zone. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 18^th, 2024 at 7:23pm:

Another post that could have been made in the [NotThe]Environment board BUT the little puke has me banned for a bullshit reason. Quote: Farming has always been gambling with dirt – but the odds are getting longer Rainfall patterns are changing, crops are ripening earlier and the normal rhythms of farming have fallen off – exactly as climate scientists warned The BoM/CSIRO State of the Climate 2024 Report echoes this. Southern Australis is drying, northern Australia is getting wetter. And this year is the hottest year on record. [quote]In the last 30 years though, summer has meant harvest and the battle to get the crop off in a reasonable state for the best possible price. It has meant never knowing whether the wheat would be in the bin before Christmas Day. It used to be a fairly good rule of thumb that the canola was ready in the last week of November and the wheat was ready to strip in the first week of December. Life is not without hurdles and ours always include summer storms, machinery breakdowns and labour challenges, but those dates were fairly constant. Over the years, the crops have ripened faster. This year, the canola was early and even the wheat was ready in November. That early start was interrupted by some of the biggest rainfalls of 2024, close to 110mm or more than four inches in the old money falling in a week.

The lower the rainfall is in a region the more irregular rainfall becomes—longer dry stretches, fiercer downpours. I learned this in third year high school, guess the little puke ruining Environment dropped out before learning that, not that he ever learned much.


Quote:

I had pegged 2024 as a dry year but, after adding up the rainfall, it turns out the annual fall was pretty close to the average for this district. It just fell in summer more than winter and in greater extremes, a bit like climate scientists had predicted.

Wheat, canola etc are not grown in summer.

"Key statistics

    369 million hectares of agricultural land, down 5% from 2020-21
    36 million tonnes of wheat produced, up 14%
    7 million tonnes of canola production, up 43%
    70 million sheep and lambs on farms at 30 June 2022, up 3%
    22 million beef cattle at 30 June 2022, up 1%

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/agriculture/agricultural-commodities-australia/latest-release


Quote:

I don’t mean to be glib but this year has been mostly hotter and wetter except where it has been drier, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. We started with an El Niño declared from September 2023 which caused a stampede of stock headed for the saleyards at a lower price as the summer approached. Prepare for drought, they cried. I was one of them. There is nothing worse than feeding animals through a drought. And certainly south-western Victoria is in trouble with drought, as is South Australia. Elsewhere, it rained. And rained. There were floods throughout the country, including in parts of Western Australia which received half a year’s rainfall in 24 hours. I had to laugh at the rather guarded wisdom from Seth Westra, a professor of hydrology and climate risk at the University of Adelaide. “If you follow the advice, on average, you’ll probably be ahead,” he told the Rural Network in January. “But there’ll be times when you’re not. That’s where trying to hedge against different eventualities is really the way to manage.”

Heads I win, tails you lose.


Quote:

The dry weather amped up the protein in crops like wheat, enough to make the most sluggish sourdough bloom. Apparently, there was a silver lining on those dry skies. Higher protein wheat means a high price for the farmer. Then, late in our harvest, that aforementioned rain fell. A wet crop cannot be harvested until it dries out. It also often loses quality, and therefore price premium, fast. Modern cropping requires big investments in seed, fertiliser, sprays and labour. Those costs have been rising as farmers have pushed for greater production, to boost incomes and stay ahead of the climate change.

That big investment is why ruzzians will be hungry next year.

[quote]Throwing a high investment at raising a food crop becomes an even riskier venture in an ever-more unpredictable climate. If you win the bet, you can win big. If you lose, not only do you forgo a potential income, but you have lost the money already spent.

While more than half of Australia’s landmass is managed by farmers, most of that is used for grazing because much of the country is not suitable for cropping. Only one-fifth of Australian farms are classified as broadacre cropping farms. At the same time, there is rising demand for protein around the world.

Though the total number of farm businesses has been falling across all enterprises over the longer term, it is no surprise that the number of specialist beef producers increased in all states except South Australia and the Northern Territory.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/17/farming-has-always-been-gambling-with-dirt-but-the-odds-are-getting-longer

So the Guardian can't do simple research. Who knew? That's what comes of not going to data.

Poor JM the Guardian’s true friend. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Of course longer growing seasons are better than shorter growing seasons, but JM won't have a bar of that.

So tell us about the shorter growing seasons during the LIA, JM. ;)

lee wrote on Dec 19^th, 2024 at 12:24pm:

Of course longer growing seasons are better than shorter growing seasons, but JM won't have a bar of that. So tell us about the shorter growing seasons during the LIA, JM. ;)

Monk can't post here - he's banned:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1612043899/15#15

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 22^nd, 2024 at 9:29am:

Seems lees had to comment on the above. Bit OCD but that is lees. He should get psych help.

Poor JM, just can't seem to get the idea of refutation, rather than drive-by's.

Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 26^th, 2024 at 4:25pm:

Record high heat for two years and we get a bushfire. Amazing thing is only one bushfire happening now. AGW deniers share responsibility for trying to stop action against AGW.

Wow. Record high heat for two years? Just how much is this record worth ? According to UAH the warmest was August 2024, with the anomaly +1.75C above 1979. But it is the "hot" this December wot dunnit. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"The following table lists various regional Version 6.1 LT departures from the 30-year (1991-2020) average for the last 23 months (record highs are in red). Note the tropics have cooled by 0.72 deg. C in the last 8 months, consistent with the onset of La Nina conditions."
YEAR      MO      GLOBE      NHEM.      SHEM.      TROPIC      USA48      ARCTIC      AUST
2023      Jan      -0.06      +0.07      -0.19        -0.41          +0.14      -0.10        -0.45
2023      Feb      +0.07      +0.13      +0.01      -0.13       +0.64      -0.26      +0.11
2023      Mar      +0.18      +0.22      +0.14      -0.17      -1.36      +0.15      +0.58
2023      Apr      +0.12      +0.04      +0.20      -0.09      -0.40      +0.47      +0.41
2023      May      +0.28      +0.16      +0.41      +0.32      +0.37      +0.52      +0.10
2023      June      +0.30      +0.33      +0.28      +0.51      -0.55      +0.29      +0.20
2023      July      +0.56      +0.59      +0.54      +0.83      +0.28      +0.79      +1.42
2023      Aug      +0.61      +0.77      +0.45      +0.78      +0.71      +1.49      +1.30
2023      Sep      +0.80      +0.84      +0.76      +0.82      +0.25      +1.11      +1.17
2023      Oct      +0.79      +0.85      +0.72      +0.85      +0.83      +0.81      +0.57
2023      Nov      +0.77      +0.87      +0.67      +0.87      +0.50      +1.08      +0.29
2023      Dec      +0.75      +0.92      +0.57      +1.01      +1.22      +0.31      +0.70
2024      Jan      +0.80      +1.02      +0.58      +1.20      -0.19      +0.40      +1.12
2024      Feb      +0.88      +0.95      +0.81      +1.17      +1.31      +0.86      +1.16
2024      Mar      +0.88      +0.96      +0.80      +1.26      +0.22      +1.05      +1.34
2024      Apr      +0.94      +1.12      +0.77      +1.15      +0.86      +0.88      +0.54
2024      May      +0.78      +0.77      +0.78      +1.20      +0.05      +0.22      +0.53
2024      June      +0.69      +0.78      +0.60      +0.85      +1.37      +0.64      +0.91
2024      July      +0.74      +0.86      +0.62      +0.97      +0.44      +0.56      -0.06
2024      Aug      +0.76      +0.82      +0.70      +0.75      +0.41      +0.88      +1.75
2024      Sep      +0.81      +1.04      +0.58      +0.82      +1.32      +1.48      +0.98
2024      Oct      +0.75      +0.89      +0.61      +0.64      +1.90      +0.81      +1.09
2024      Nov      +0.64      +0.88      +0.41      +0.54      +1.12      +0.79      +1.00

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2024/12/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-november-2024-0-64-deg-c/

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 1^st, 2025 at 10:36pm:

Scientists counted 49 ways Australia is destroying the ecosystems we hold dear – but there is hope

I bet they didn't include ripping up the ecological system to plant solar and wind farms.  Saving the environment by destroying it. :'(

Nope. No mention of renewables.

lee wrote on Jan 2^nd, 2025 at 12:48pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 1st, 2025 at 10:36pm: Scientists counted 49 ways Australia is destroying the ecosystems we hold dear – but there is hope I bet they didn't include ripping up the ecological system to plant solar and wind farms.  Saving the environment by destroying it. :'( Nope. No mention of renewables.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 4^th, 2025 at 4:59pm:

2024 was WAY hotter than previous years: https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Ranked-annual-global-LT-averages-through-2024-2048x1536.jpg

Poor JM. Averages are just  that. Some higher some lower. Was it daytime or nighttime temperatures that caused the average to be warmer?

BTW - Since scientists don't know what caused the warmer temperatures, why are you so sure it is CO2 wotdunnit. As per your "pointy end of AGW" for November. ;)

Monk's weather report consists of him poking his finger up his bum to feel which direction the wind is blowing.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 8^th, 2025 at 6:23am:

Heh, some AGW deniers that comment in the UAH6 comments section are desperate for a La Niña to end the two-year spike of record high global temperatures.

But it was only days ago that poor JM conceded =


Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 4^th, 2025 at 4:19pm:

Finally the extreme heat seems to be giving way to cooler conditions. Scientists do not know why there was such a long period of extreme heat.

Now it is AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk has no idea about climate or anything, except how to copy, steal and troll other boards and topics in his fake Board.

[quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1736370962/0#0 date=1736370962]This is in the NH winter.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01/08/us/california-wildfire-la-palisades

[quote]Scramble to Fight Fires With Strained Resources

Nothing in the story about Santa Ana winds, sometimes known as Devil's wind, which causes drying, and no, the lowlands of California are not snow covered. Grasses are known as 1 hour fuel fires.

https://www.noble.org/regenerative-agriculture/prescribed-burn/fuel-loading-fuel-moisture-are-important-components-of-prescribed-fire/

Monk wrote in his MRB -


Quote:

Earth breaches 1.5 °C climate limit for the first time: what does it mean? The threshold has been exceeded for only one year so far, but humanity is nearing the end of what many thought was a ‘safe zone’ as climate change worsens. It’s official: Earth’s average temperature climbed more than 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024. Climate scientists announced the breach today, signalling that the world has failed, at least temporarily, to avoid crossing the threshold set by governments to avert the worst impacts of global warming. For the time being, it’s just one metric and one year, but researchers say that it nonetheless serves as a stark reminder that the world is moving into dangerous territory — perhaps more quickly than previously thought.

Look at the UAH chart to end Dec 2024:
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2024_v6.1_20x9-2048x922.jpg


Quote:

last year, Earth’s temperature hit 1.55 °C above the average for 1850–1900 — considered to be a ‘pre-industrial’ period before humans began pouring large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Unexpectedly, the 2024 figure also shows a statistically significant increase over that for 2023, when heat records were set. Climate scientists are investigating whether the two-year temperature surge is a blip or whether it marks a change in Earth’s climate system that means global warming is speeding up.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00010-9

It may be that the extreme heat is retreating a bit, but AGW is still at work. Why temperatures spiked so much for so long is still not known. Temperatures, once the spike in temperatures is over temperatures will resume their over 0.2°C per decade climb and sooner or later we will be back, then past, the temperatures at the top of the spike.

This could have been posted in “Environment” but the incompetent Mod of that unhappy board has me permanently banned on a lie of abuse. He should be made Mod of Toolshed, he can just about manage that.

I missed this one -


Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 8^th, 2025 at 6:23am:

The Bureau of Meteorology has not declared a La Niña and instead notes that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently “neutral”“ (neither El Niño nor La Niña), albeit with some indices drifting close to La Niña thresholds. Any unofficial declaration of a La Niña is jumping the gun.

"The most recent value of the Niño3.4 SST index in the central Pacific Ocean to 5 January is −0.83 °C, which meets the La Niña threshold of −0.8 °C."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly#tabs=Overview

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 8:50pm:

The threshold has been exceeded for only one year so far, but humanity is nearing the end of what many thought was a ‘safe zone’ as climate change worsens.

Of course he doesn't define "many". Many were the government delegates at Paris 2015 that decided on an aspirational goal of 1.5C. Nothing at all to do with a"safe zone" as was the Nordhaus (economist) 2C prior. So both neither to do with climate science. Climate seance perhaps. ;)

Hi lee,
so you're saying it's actually cooler?

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:49pm:

Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler?

??

SST's in the Pacific Nino 3.4 zone yes.

lee wrote on Jan 11^th, 2025 at 9:55pm:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 11th, 2025 at 9:49pm: Hi lee, so you're saying it's actually cooler? ?? SST's in the Pacific Nino 3.4 zone yes.

OK thanks so Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 12^th, 2025 at 8:07am:

During 2024, 24% of the Earth’s surface had a locally record warm annual average, including 32% of land areas and 21% of ocean areas. These areas coincided with a number of major population centers. We estimate that 3.3 billion people — 40% of Earth’s population — experienced a locally record warm annual average in 2024. This includes 2/3 of the population of China, and a majority of the populations of Brazil, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mexico, 1/3 of the United States, and much of South and Central America, and Eastern Europe. None of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024.

"locally record warm annual average"? Seems like a long winded way of saying no local absolute temperature records.



And "(n)one of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024"? Wow they expect a record cold average in one year? Especially after the earth warmed from local average temperatures?

Poor JM seems to be going senile. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 1:35pm:

Quote: However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability. https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Exceptional-Warming-1024x564.png

And since we don't know all the permutations for climate, which is why they use parameterisations, their guess of 1 in 100 years doesn't stack up. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"Moved: 'BEST global temperature chart'
The contents of this Topic have been moved to this Topic by Jovial Monk"

It seems JM is getting shy. I am not allowed access. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 4:52pm:

Fires like those in LA could hit Sydney or Melbourne. How prepared are we? | David Bowman for the Conversation Read more

Now even arsonists are climate. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 13^th, 2025 at 4:13pm:

That is the time we are living in. The study that graphic came from says we are hotter now than any time in the last 120,000 years. Major studies have been done going back into geologic time—CO2 causes warming. Read up about the Permian–Triassic extinction that allowed the rise of reptiles, i.e. dinosaurs.

So now the Roman warm period is no more, the Holocene optimum is no more, the MWP is no more, Minoan etc. And Greenland isn't GLOBAL. ;)

And poor JM refuses to look at the sulphur dioxide during the Permian–Triassic extinction.  But he knows it was CO2, 'coz he just knows stuff. ;)

https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Land-and-Ocean-Time-Series-1024x564.png

Of course it should be remembered that there was no great data for the ocean prior to the Argo buoys, according to Phil Jones, CRU. As most SH ocean temperatures were 'mostly made up".

SST's? They measure the top "few millimetres" when they used buckets. How to tell that the bucket only went down that far? How about rough weather? Go outside and grab the rail with one hand swing the bucket with the other, pull it up one handed, and you still have that problem of a "few millimetres".

Ant then ships intake in the ships engine rooms. Stokers without shirts shovelling coal because of the heat and the water would not be affected?

Just too funny. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 17^th, 2025 at 5:46pm:

Quote: Energy Imbalance and Cloud Cover In order to understand the high rates of warming in 2023 and 2024 it is useful to examine Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). The energy imbalance is the difference between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and how much subsequently escapes back into space as thermal radiation. It is a direct measure of how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth system as a result of changes in greenhouse gases and other factors. As long as the energy imbalance is positive, we can expect the Earth to continue warming. In the decades since satellites began reliably measuring Earth’s energy imbalance, the values observed in 2023 are the largest on record. This imbalance has subsequently reduced somewhat in 2024. https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2024-EEI-1024x564.png [quote]Spatially, the recent change in Earth’s energy imbalance is concentrated over the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, Europe, and the Southern Ocean. The change in the Southern Ocean is primarily related to record low sea ice cover in recent years. The changes in other ocean basins may be directly related to the reduction in marine sulfur aerosol emissions, which would be expected to allow more sunlight to reach the Earth’s surface.

[/quote]

https://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2024-EEI-1024x564.png

Strangely there is nothing in the post about cloud cover.

"he IPCC’s theory on GHG caused GW is that: in the upper atmosphere GHGs absorb LW radiation and reflect some of the heat back to earth, like a blanket, in a process called radiative forcing, RF.  The RF theory does not need a change in incoming SW radiation and RF would result in a decrease in TOA LW radiation.   The IPCC’s RF theory has it’s roots in the assumption that the earths albedo does not change, from the beginning of the IPCC there was no data that said that was not true.  Within the last 20 years Dübal and Vahrenholt (5), Loeb et al shows (18), and Goode et al (17) have all shown the albedo does change and it is correlated to global temperature.  These studies do not match the IPCC’s RF theory – no or little GHG GW is going on in the 20 years of CERES data.  Mapping of cloud cover in Loeb et al shows (18), and Figure 5, location based cloud cover changes inconsistent with uniform distribution of GHGs.  Another theory is needed."
...
There is one more source of low RH hot air.  Globally the change since 1880 from virgin land to crop/pasture was about 6% of the earths land mass with a slightly higher (cooler) change in albedo (3); but, with unexpected lower moisture and hotter air than the virgin land.  The most notable of these changes was the deforestation of the Amazonian rain forest to make crop and pasture land (4).  Costa et al (4) showed that despite an increase in albedo from rain forest to crop/pasture the temperature increase, the RH deceased, the cloud cover decreased, and the rain decreased.  This is a classic example of psychometric temperature and RH behavior.  Combining the UHI and crop/pasture land changes we get 9% of the earth’s land mass producing more hot low RH air than 1700-1880."

https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/04/16/where-have-all-the-clouds-gone-and-why-care-global-cloud-cover-decline-over-past-40-years/

But what about Sulphur dioxide (SO2)? SO2 is a "GHG", that has a cooling effect. It is also reducing. Reducing SO2 mean less nucleii for the formation of clouds, which increases cloud albedo. That is why there have been calls from scientists to increase SO2.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-27460-7_11

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:35pm:

Quote: Pristine ancient forest frozen in time in Rocky Mountains A melting ice patch in the Rocky Mountains uncovered an ancient forest, and these trees have stories to tell about dynamic landscapes and climate change.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:35pm:

Idiots tell me this shows it was warmer in the MWP. Nope, warmer now than at any time in the Holocene Optimum. Globe is warming up so ice retreats north exposing the remains of old forests etc. With time where the ice was the tundra thaws and bacteria then weeds then trees grow in the new soil and the treeline marches north (or south down here of course.) Quote: Beartooth Plateau, which sits at an altitude of over 10,000 feet (3,000 meters), is a barren, tundra-like landscape. But it hasn't always been that way; an ancient forest lies beneath layers of ice. Cooling temperatures about 5,500 years ago quickly encased this whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forest in ice, preserving the trees in nearly perfect condition. Now, as ice patches frozen for millennia melt due to climate change, researchers are finding clues about what this ancient landscape was once like, and how it was preserved. They detailed their findings Dec. 30, 2024, in the journal PNAS. "No one had any idea that these patches of ice had been around for thousands of years," David McWethy, an associate professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Montana State University and co-author of the study, told Live Science. "Things looked dramatically different than they do today." This ancient forest of whitebark pines thrived for centuries at much higher elevations than the same tree species that can be found in the region today. This is because the global climate went through a warm period between the end of the last ice age, about 10,000 years ago, and the time when these whitebark pines died over 5,000 years ago. A long time for these trees to be buried!

Strangely enough the end of the Holocene was about 5,500 years ago. Not that poor JM will admit it. ;)

lee wrote on Jan 28^th, 2025 at 5:52pm:

Strangely enough the end of the Holocene was about 5,500 years ago. Not that poor JM will admit it. ;)

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 11^th, 2025 at 5:11am:

This is the strongest ocean current. Original paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb31c Article derived from the paper: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03032025/global-warming-will-weaken-antarctic-circumpolar-current Quote: Fresh water from melting Antarctic ice is projected to weaken the world’s most powerful ocean current by 20 percent in the next quarter century, an international team of scientists concluded in a study published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters. A weakening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current [ACC]—one of Earth’s strongest climate engines—would have dire consequences, including “more climate variability, with greater extremes in certain regions, and accelerated global warming,” said lead author Bishakhdatta Gayen, an associate professor of fluid mechanics at the University of Melbourne. As sea and land ice melts the fresh, cold water floats on top of warmer but salty and so heavier ocean water, preventing the “overturning” part of the Global Overturning Meridional Circulation. [quote]The ACC is the only ocean current to flow around the entire planet unimpeded, carrying more than 100 times more water than all the world’s rivers combined. It reaches 100 to 200 miles wide and as deep as three miles as it circles Antarctica from west to east, mixing water from the planet’s largest ocean basins—the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic.

So a substantial current and so if the ACC changes it will have a big impact on the other oceans—the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic—it passes through.


NB: The troll “Bobby” aka “Booby” aka “Goober” told me Tasmania was IN the ACC. Then the clown posted a map showing the ACC was over 1000Kms SOUTH of Tasmania. LOL, what an idiot!



Quote:

The ACC streams off the shore of southern Australia and southern Africa and flows through the channel between the southern tip of South America and the Antarctica Peninsula, forming the “main mechanism for the exchange of heat, carbon dioxide, chemicals and biology across these ocean basins,” the researchers wrote. “Without that mixing, if the redistribution stops, you can start getting hot spots or cold spots,” Gayen said. If the ocean becomes more stagnant, the likelihood of marine heatwaves and associated impacts like toxic algal blooms increases. As ocean regions warm, they also expand so a weaker ACC could accelerate sea level rise, he added. In the Southern Hemisphere, the ocean off the coast of eastern Australia is currently about 3 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average, and the record ocean temperature has resulted in severe coral reef damage in the region during the last few months. In recent years, there have been record-breaking ocean heat waves in the Tasman Sea and the South Pacific around New Zealand.

For “Bobby:” the Tasman sea is off Australia’s SE coast to the islands of New Zealand.


https://insideclimatenews.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/ACC.jpg


Quote:

Gayen said that a 2023 paper in the journal Nature Climate Change documented how freshwater from melting ice has already been weakening the overturning, or vertical circulation, of Antarctic shelf waters, which also reduces oxygen in the deep ocean. “Analyzing it for the Southern Ocean, we found such a remarkable outcome, that the ACC will slow down 20 percent in the next 30 years,” he said. “This is a very rich model in terms of resolving eddies,” he added, which is important because the full effects of the thousands of loops and swirls along the edges of the ACC across thousands of miles of ocean have not been accurately represented by climate models. Co-author Taimoor Sohail, a postdoctoral research associate at the School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Science at the University of Melbourne, said previous studies show that a growing north-south temperature gradient in the Southern Ocean would speed up the ACC. The new study, along with other recent research, strongly suggests that the salinity changes caused by freshwater from melting ice “far outweigh” temperature effects on the ACC. Gayen said one of the big uncertainties is exactly how much ice is melting. Some recent research estimates the thawing is producing 28.8 trillion gallons of meltwater per year. “We don’t really know much about East Antarctica,” he said. “But one thing is clear, there is a connection between melting and an ACC slowdown.”

[/quote]

From the methods section -

"The primary tool used in this analysis is the ACCESS-OM2-01 ocean-sea ice model (from [32, 36]). ACCESS-OM2-01 has a 0.1-degree horizontal resolution and has 75 vertical levels. "

A model may be good when its projections match observations. But fear porn is not ok. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

A 0.1º degree resolution is about 60 sq Km. Good enough for government work. ;)

More: "Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario."

WE don't have a high emissions scenbario and the IPCC agrees. RCP8.5, SSP 8.5. ;)

Monk is a lonely old homosexual.
Lee is an intellectual.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 20^th, 2025 at 7:06am:

Quote: Albanese to rush through new laws to protect Tasmania’s salmon industry from legal challenge Labor will push the contentious bill through parliament next week despite concerns about the extinction of the Maugean skate Anthony Albanese plans to rush through contentious legislation next week to protect Tasmania’s salmon industry from a legal challenge over the industry’s impact on an endangered fish species. The future of the salmon industry on the state’s west coast has become a sharp political issue centred on whether it can coexist with the Maugean skate, a ray-like species found only in Macquarie Harbour’s brackish estuarine waters. After lobbying by industry leaders and Tasmanian MPs, Albanese wrote to the state’s three salmon companies last month promising the government would change the law to ensure there were “appropriate environmental laws” to “continue sustainable salmon farming” in the harbour. Maugean skates have been hatched in a captive breeding program in Tasmania Scientists say Tasmania’s Maugean skate could become extinct – so why are local leaders still backing the salmon industry? Read more He had expected that would be a commitment for the next term of parliament. But with the election campaign delayed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred, the prime minister plans to introduce a bill on Tuesday that could abruptly end a long-running legal review by the environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, into whether an expansion of the industry in the harbour in 2012 was properly approved. The bill – an amendment to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act – has been listed to be introduced in the lower house next Tuesday, 25 March, when parliament will largely be focused on the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, delivering the federal budget. It is expected in the Senate the following day. With the Greens and several crossbench senators opposed, it will need the support of the Coalition to pass. Peter Dutton has previously told the industry he would guarantee its future and legislate if elected prime minister. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/19/albanese-to-rush-through-new-laws-to-protect-tasmanias-salmon-industry-from-legal-threat

JM back to his favourite sauce. (No not that ;)). The Guardian home of the scientifically minded. ;D ;D ;D ;D

"For the first time in nearly a decade, scientists have recorded an increased presence of young Maugean skates – a ray of hope for the survival of the endangered species.

The research by the University of Tasmania’s Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies offers a promising sign for the Maugean skate, a species endemic to the unique environment of Macquarie Harbour."

https://www.utas.edu.au/about/news-and-stories/articles/2024/signs-of-hope-for-endangered-maugean-skate

Sep 24

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 20^th, 2025 at 10:38pm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pFeJ0JWFPk&ab_channel=WeatherIQ The State of the Climate Reports 2018–2024 have all mentioned the drying of the southern half of Australia and the increasing rainfal in the north. The graph in the very short youtube illustrates this VERY clearly! AGW is real!

Strangely AGW is only from 2018 according to JM. That must make the year 2000 pre-AGW,

"Most yearly precipitation      240.0 cm      2000"

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/townsville

Of course it could just be that it didn't fit the narrative. You know monsoons, tropical lows - nothing to do with precipitation. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 21^st, 2025 at 7:18pm:

From spaceweather.com where I am still tracking the sun. Quote: NEW EVIDENCE THAT COSMIC RAYS SPARK LIGHTNING: Every second, almost 50 bolts of lightning zig-zag across the skies of Earth. Despite centuries of study, however, researchers still aren't sure how the bolts get started. Electric fields in thunderclouds are often too weak to ignite a powerful discharge.

Svensmark anyone? ;)

Monk is in foetal position reliving his baby memories.

Cosmic Rays is a very broad range of anything hitting the planet.
Considering the mass movement of cloud and gas moving on Jupiter, I would say molecular friction is the base cause it has lightning everywhere constantly.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 31^st, 2025 at 11:17pm:

[quote]Winter sea ice cover in the Arctic was the lowest it’s ever been at its annual peak on March 22, 2025, according to NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder. At 5.53 million square miles (14.33 million square kilometers), the maximum extent fell below the prior low of 5.56 million square miles (14.41 million square kilometers) in 2017.

So 80,000 square km out of 14.41 million km is a calamity. That's 5.5%. ;)

But -

"The uncertainties in SIA and SIE investigated here stem from uncertainties in the underlying SIC fields. Passive microwave SIC estimates in regions of consolidated ice have typically smaller uncertainties (2 % to 8 % SIC) than estimates from low to intermediate SIC areas with uncertainties in the order of 20 % SIC or more (Kern et al., 2019, 2022; Alekseeva et al., 2019; Meier, 2005). "

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2473/2024/

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 8^th, 2025 at 12:13am:

Even now idiots in the areas experiencing unusual cold will be posting on Twitter etc “Cold—grand solar minimum!” “Little Ice Age!” and crap like that.

At least he stopped short of blaming it on AGW. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

https://www.noticer.news/stuart-bonds-hunter-renewable-energy/


Aussie coal miner exposes renewable energy madness in viral speech

“Can you tell me why we would load trains, millions of millions of tonnes of coal on 100-carriage trains, shipped all the way over to China, and then they burn it for cheap electricity, turn it into wind turbines, and ship them back,” he told the forum.

“And then we’re going to build them all throughout our community, you will need 1,000 of these things spinning 24 hours a day to replace one 2000 megawatt coal-fired power station.

“So by the time you build them you will be rebuilding them – they don’t last 20 years. If you think that this, and the infrastructure, and the tens of thousands of kilometres of transmission lines, is going to make your life cheaper, well, I’ve got a bridge to sell you in New York.”

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 14^th, 2025 at 10:14am:

[quote] Beyond the immediate losses inflicted by severe weather and flooding, a decline in output is likely as crops fail and extreme heat strains supply chains.

And yet the data from the FAO show increased outputs from crops due to CO2. But NEVER question the narrative. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Apr 14^th, 2025 at 5:25pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 14th, 2025 at 10:14am: [quote] Beyond the immediate losses inflicted by severe weather and flooding, a decline in output is likely as crops fail and extreme heat strains supply chains. And yet the data from the FAO show increased outputs from crops due to CO2. But NEVER question the narrative. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk doesn't know -

all he has is a fake degree he bought on the internet for $30.    ::)

https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/43/a6/be/43a6befa95531a53e4ba5d149733c165.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 15^th, 2025 at 9:21am:

Quote: Rural Human Rights Defenders Face Serious and Growing Risks, UN Report Reveals BY KATIE SURMA “They’re doing this work very bravely, without any support.” For the people defending human rights and the environment in rural places, the isolation of their communities makes violence, surveillance and harassment more likely. https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=b001e1c2a0&e=6ebd90addc

Strangely there is no attribution to anyone anywhere. But its a climate crisis. ;)


Quote:

A Year After a Fatal Explosion, Alabama Extends Deadline for Coal Companies to Monitor Methane Gas Above Mines BY LEE HEDGEPETH Following federal intervention last year, state officials had given coal operators 90 days to submit methane monitoring plans. At the request of the Alabama Mining Association, regulators have now given them six more months.

https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=bb1a4f1a30&e=6ebd90addc

"Burton is a resident of Oak Grove, a rural community in western Jefferson County, about 45 miles southwest of Birmingham, that sits above an expanding longwall coal mine. The impacts of the aggressive form of mining—cracking roads, damaging foundations, causing land subsidence and triggering the escape of potentially explosive methane gas—have plagued the community for years. That culminated in a home explosion atop the mine in March 2024 that that killed grandfather W.M. Griffice and seriously injured his grandson."

So potentially explosive becomes "it exploded". ;)


Quote:

American Farmers and the USDA Had Finally Embraced Their Role in the Climate Crisis. Then Came the Federal Funding Freeze BY GEORGINA GUSTIN Critics say the Trump administration’s halt to billions in conservation spending could cause long-term damage and slow hard-won progress.

https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=ccfbafeda1&e=6ebd90addc

"“When we have the dry, hot summers or lack of rainfall, our crops can sustain the dry spells better. We don’t have huge yield decreases,” Burk said. “And when it rains and we have the freak storms, like it seems to do so much now, we don’t have the ponding and all the runoff.”

An added bonus: He needs less fertilizer, a major operating expense."

Wow A farmer found the benefit of CO2 fertilisation. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 15^th, 2025 at 9:40am:

Poor lees! He SO wanted a La Nina to cool things down a bit so he could tell himself AGW wasn’t real

And the lies continue. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2025 at 8:06pm:

Quote: Australia’s next government may be Great Barrier Reef’s last chance after sixth mass bleaching, conservationist says

'Another last chance for GBR. Despite temperatures being warmer in the past, when corals flourished. ;D ;D ;D ;D

He even manages to invoke the "Climate Crises". ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 26^th, 2025 at 11:38am:

Quote: Building the world’s biggest plane to help catch the wind Radia, a Colorado-based company, wants to build enormous aircraft to transport giant wind turbine blades. It’s betting that politics won’t get in the way. For almost a decade, Radia, a company based in Boulder, Colo., has been working on developing what would be the world’s largest plane, one that it said would have a dozen times the cargo volume of a Boeing 747. Radia’s WindRunner aircraft would solve a crucial problem for the wind power industry. Giant wind turbine blades are more efficient, but often can’t be easily shipped across aging roads and bridges. Covers Trumpy not liking wind—not a problem for long. [quote]A potential boost for wind power Larger wind turbines have a key advantage: They can operate at lower speeds and, as a result, can be deployed in more areas across the country, Lundstrom said. Longer blades can also catch more wind, he said. “The entire country benefits from cheaper energy,” Lundstrom said. That includes a number of red states that could disproportionately benefit from wind power, he said. The N.B.A.’s Hidden Game: Arranging Courtside Celebrities Moving larger wind turbines is so tough that some developers have had to build roads specifically for wind projects. Tunnels are too narrow, bridges are too low and roads can be too tight to make turns when transporting these massive parts, Lundstrom said. To help with this, the WindRunner would have the ability to land on dirt. And that size problem is also expected to only get worse: Some wind turbine blades today can span around 230 feet, but they’re expected to grow to more than 330 feet in the coming years, according to Radia. Radia’s goal is for the WindRunner to be rolled out before the end of the decade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/climate/radia-the-worlds-biggest-plane.html[/quote]


Of course, what he doesn't say is that giant wind turbines require giant mountings, much more concrete (CO2 anyone), much more separation due to wind shadow, much more mining, much more land clearing (environment anyone)? ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 28^th, 2025 at 8:12pm:

From deniers, according to the Guardian. Is IS getting a bit hard to, you know, deny AGW when it is so bloody hot for so long and ice cover is at a minimum. Whoever said that deniers don’t talk against AGW hasn’t looked here

From that harbinger of TRUTH, the Guardian. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

In the same thread about loss of power in the Iberian Peninsula -


Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 29^th, 2025 at 11:45am:

It was something to do with the European grid, powered in part by French nuclear power.

Of course the nuclear did not go down. ;)

And just days after PV magazine posted about Spain achieving 100% renewables in a weekday.

"Spain hits first weekday of 100% renewable power on national grid

Spain’s grid ran entirely on renewable energy for the first time on April 16, with wind, solar, and hydro meeting all peninsular electricity demand during a weekday. Five days later, solar set a new record, generating 20,120 MW of instantaneous power – covering 78.6% of demand and 61.5% of the grid mix."

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/04/22/spain-hits-first-weekday-of-100-renewable-power-on-national-grid/

Renewables are good, until they ain't. ;)

"The network lost 15 gigawatts of electricity generation in five seconds at around midday local time, the Spanish energy ministry said, without explaining the reason for the loss."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-29/spain-portugal-power-outage-how-it-happened/105227080

No explanation as yet.

Monk doesn't know.   ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 30^th, 2025 at 9:19am:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2025-close-behind-2024-as-the-hottest-start-to-a-year/ Another hot year, despite a weak La Nina in the first two months, but not a record breaker:

Now these are so-called average temperatures, from a mere 2 data points per day, that is the median not the average. Now if you took records hourly, you could possibly find the true average. Does the temperature, spike and the average is less than the two point  anomaly really sit at the middle of the two temperatures? We don't know, but it is always worse than we thought. ;)

lee wrote on Apr 30^th, 2025 at 3:58pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 30th, 2025 at 9:19am: https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2025-close-behind-2024-as-the-hottest-start-to-a-year/ Another hot year, despite a weak La Nina in the first two months, but not a record breaker: Now these are so-called average temperatures, from a mere 2 data points per day, that is the median not the average. Now if you took records hourly, you could possibly find the true average. Does the temperature, spike and the average is less than the two point  anomaly really sit at the middle of the two temperatures? We don't know, but it is always worse than we thought. ;)

Don't listen to Monk -
he's a high school dropout who projects that failure on to me.

Monk couldn't even identify or tell us any rock and mineral stories on this thread:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1735199488/60


He says he has a BSc which makes him a trained geologist.   ::)

RE: Moon to get Hammered

Jovial Monk wrote on May 1^st, 2025 at 5:45pm:

By an asteroid. Quote: 'City-killer' asteroid that might hit moon has 'unexpected' shape, astronomers say The once-dubbed "city-killer" asteroid 2024 YR4 has surprised scientists with its 'unusual' shape as it rapidly rotates through space on a trajectory that could see it hit the moon. If it does hit the moon won’t do any real damage. Be spectacular tho! https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-that-might-hit-moon-has-unexpected-shape-astronomers-say

So in the final sentence he admits it is supposition. Just like his climate thing. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on May 1^st, 2025 at 6:13pm:

RE: Moon to get Hammered Jovial Monk wrote on May 1st, 2025 at 5:45pm: By an asteroid. Quote: 'City-killer' asteroid that might hit moon has 'unexpected' shape, astronomers say The once-dubbed "city-killer" asteroid 2024 YR4 has surprised scientists with its 'unusual' shape as it rapidly rotates through space on a trajectory that could see it hit the moon. If it does hit the moon won’t do any real damage. Be spectacular tho! https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/city-killer-asteroid-that-might-hit-moon-has-unexpected-shape-astronomers-say So in the final sentence he admits it is supposition. Just like his climate thing. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Monk doesn't know.    ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 5:23am:

"Warmer air holds more water. It's fundamental," Becker said.

Actually that is not true. Warmer air MAY hold more water, but it is not a given. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation has not been overturned.  ;)

You would think a Professor of Atmospheric Science would know that.

"Dr. Emily Becker is a Research Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the Associate Director of UM’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS). "

https://people.miami.edu/profile/e0c37d67e44050fe43c1563befb82dc1

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 12:29pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on May 6th, 2025 at 5:23am: "Warmer air holds more water. It's fundamental," Becker said. Actually that is not true. Warmer air MAY hold more water, but it is not a given. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation has not been overturned.  ;) You would think a Professor of Atmospheric Science would know that. "Dr. Emily Becker is a Research Associate Professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the Associate Director of UM’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS). " https://people.miami.edu/profile/e0c37d67e44050fe43c1563befb82dc1

Hi Lee -
I don't follow you there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Clapeyron_relation

Clausius–Clapeyron relation


Kelvin and his brother James Thomson confirmed the relation experimentally in 1849–50,
and it was historically important as a very early successful application of theoretical thermodynamics.
[5] Its relevance to meteorology and climatology is the increase of the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere
by about 7% for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) rise in temperature.

The Atmosphere CAN hold more water. It doesn't mean it MUST, but could.

A reference -
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/646/

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 5:27pm:

The Atmosphere CAN hold more water. It doesn't mean it MUST, but could. A reference - https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/646/

Does that link prove your point?    :-/

"You may have heard a phrase such as “warm air can have more moisture than cold air”. "

"The other version of the equation is used to determine what could be the maximum amount of moisture in the air for a given temperature."

It is not deterministic.

Another -

"By the end of this section, you should be able to discuss why the idea that warm air holds more water vapor than cold air is a fallacy, and discuss how water drops grow in terms of condensation rates and evaporation rates."

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2223

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 5:55pm:

"You may have heard a phrase such as “warm air can have more moisture than cold air”. " "The other version of the equation is used to determine what could be the maximum amount of moisture in the air for a given temperature." It is not deterministic. Another - "By the end of this section, you should be able to discuss why the idea that warm air holds more water vapor than cold air is a fallacy, and discuss how water drops grow in terms of condensation rates and evaporation rates." https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2223

OK - maybe in future you could confine your criticisms of Monk
to only his most humiliating examples?

I would have thought that a scientist, like Monk, would know that. He spreads his imaginings. ::)

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2025 at 6:29pm:

I would have thought that a scientist, like Monk, would know that. He spreads his imaginings. ::)

His scientific credentials are in doubt.

Monk couldn't even identify or tell us any rock and mineral stories on this thread:

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1735199488/60


He says he has a BSc which makes him a trained geologist.   ::)

https://goodnewsplanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/310683B6-110F-4285-9901-16E575E5F424.jpeg

Super Nova wrote on May 7^th, 2025 at 2:22pm:

https://goodnewsplanet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/310683B6-110F-4285-9901-16E575E5F424.jpeg

No politics here. ::)

https://www.businesstoday.in/science/story/from-loss-to-surprise-gain-after-decades-of-melting-east-antarcticas-key-glaciers-show-rare-recovery-474640-2025-05-04


From loss to surprise gain:
After decades of melting, East Antarctica’s key glaciers show rare recovery

Between 2021 and 2023, the Antarctic Ice Sheet gained mass — for the first time in decades. This anomaly, driven by unusual precipitation patterns, is reshaping how scientists understand the icy continent’s role in the climate crisis

Business Today Desk

Updated May 4, 2025


Then, between 2021 and 2023, the trend took a surprising turn.
Antarctica saw a net gain of 107.79 gigatons of ice per year — marking a rare period of recovery.
This gain was especially pronounced in four East Antarctic glacier basins — Totten, Moscow, Denman and Vincennes Bay — which had previously been losing mass due to reduced surface accumulation and faster ice discharge. These glaciers, once indicators of accelerating loss, shifted course and began accumulating ice again.

Even though they said this NASA has said SLR was 5.9mm, something that the long term tide gauges don't show. It is only an artefact of successive satellite flights, each with its own parameters.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/nasa-sea-level-rise-to-2025.png?

Both NOAA and University of Colorado disagree with NASA.

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/colorado-sea-level-rise-to-2025.png

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/trend-sea-level-five-satellites.png

There is a seasonal change of 5.9mm, but that is not acceleration.

https://m3.gab.com/media_attachments/37/c1/ae/37c1ae07e55a7519a29170687e522ae7.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 10^th, 2025 at 3:28pm:

One of the major sources in the decrease in the rate of CO2 emissions could well be China which has invested heavily in nuclear and other clean energy. Again, will discuss this in more detail later.

Yes, He's back.


So if you rely on nameplate figures, they are doing well. But the devil is in the supply side detail, which is scarce. ;)

Nowhere can you find capacity factor figures. ;)

Of course then we need to look at what China is doing overseas. Particularly in oil and gas.

"A report released earlier this year showed that in 2024, China’s foreign oil and gas investments hit an all-time high of $24.3 billion, mostly focused in the Middle East. Total Chinese investments in the region hit $39 billion last year, Chinese think tank Green Finance & Development Center, which produced the report, said."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-and-Beyond-Chinas-Expanding-Global-Footprint.html

As for coal - "The country began building 94.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-power capacity and resumed 3.3GW of suspended projects in 2024, the highest level of construction in the past 10 years, according to the two thinktanks."

https://www.carbonbrief.org/chinas-construction-of-new-coal-power-plants-reached-10-year-high-in-2024/

But wishes exceed data apparently.

You know he's just an alcoholic pot smoking bum

More from the Arch bedwetter.  About coral bleaching, whether it can recover from mass bleachings and then a curious graphic. Conflating SST increase with marine heatwaves, two entirely different things.

I will even resize it for him.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/ocean_heat.png

And then of course notice the 'y' axis, in zettajoules to scare the unwary muppets.

And why?

The graphic talks about Ocean Heat Content, not even surface temperature or close to, where corals live.

It takes about 2600 Zj to raise the top TWO km of ocean by 1ºC, so that would make 300Zjor about 0.115ºC. Scary huh? ;)

And then of course we know that they didn't have global coverage before Argo, about year 2000, so the knowledge in 1960 was rather less. And even now with 4000 Argo floats, the data points are still scarce.

Just colour me shocked that a person who claims to be a scientist doesn't know that.

Of course AIMS has their scary prediction attached to the 23-24 report after saying how good '24 was.

https://www.aims.gov.au/monitoring-great-barrier-reef/gbr-condition-summary-2023-24

Edit: "As well as degrees Celsius, ocean heat content can be measured as energy, in gigajoules (GJ) or watts (W)."

https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2023/ocean-heat-content

Edit 2: "he temperatures in the Argo profiles are accurate to ± 0.002°C and pressures are accurate to ± 2.4dbar."

https://argo.ucsd.edu/faq/

Which begs the question - if it reads in °C why convert to Zj?