Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
"One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping."
...
"AMOC collapse
To develop such an early warning indicator, we performed a targeted simulation to find an AMOC tipping event in the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 1.0.5). This CESM version, which has been used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 5, has horizontal resolutions of 1° for the ocean/sea ice and 2° for the atmosphere/land components (see Materials and Methods)."

https://www.science.org/cms/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189/asset/d9454c0e-ef8e-4726-b377-8fc9242ad7c6/assets/images/large/sciadv.adk1189-f1.jpg

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189#body-ref-R2

So model based rather than physics based.
The tipping point is model year 1758 or 3782AD (or CE if you are so inclined).
I will let Willis Eschenbach continue, he does it so well.


"Now if you follow my work, you’ll know that I often ask the most impertinent questions. So I got to thinking about something they didn’t mention in their study … just how much modeled fresh water have they added?"

"Now, a Sverdrup is a million cubic meters per second. So over the 1,758 model years from the start up to the tipping point, they’ve added a total of:

0.264 Sv * 106 cubic meters per second/Sv * 1758 years * 31,556,926 seconds per year / 109 cubic meters per cubic kilometer =

14,629,305 cubic kilometers of modeled fresh water added.

Now, fourteen million cubic kilometers of water, that’s a very big number. So let’s compare it to something that’s also very big … say the total volume of water in the entire Greenland Ice Cap. Here’s that comparison."

https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/comparison-volumes-greenland-ice-cap-and-AMOC-tipping-1.png

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/02/11/tipping-is-optional/

So that's all the Greenland ice sheet and half the Antarctic ice sheet. ::)

They really need to open a very large passage (strait) of water better than the Panama Canal.
This will once again allow the cooler Atlantic Ocean to 'trade' with the warmer Pacific Ocean and open up a more versatile Global interaction of currents.
Even a greater opening transfer from the Atlantic 'through' the Mediterranean Sea and through the Suez via a much wider 'Strait' - would also allow more diverse temperature transference with the Indian Ocean.
In other words - there can be a Equatorial 'gyre' of water once again in the world which would lead to a better climate overall.

So far, things are just mixing at the North or Southern passages.
A return to an Equatorial transference would benefit this planet a lot more.
The proposed future Supercontinent that will emerge basically spells much climatic doom, because it will 'block' the equatorial to temperate flows around the world but for the far north and south.
The less 'diversification' - the worse things get.
Pretty simple.

Open up the Panama and Suez to as wide as possibly can be achieved. Let the Spice flow... let the Oceans flow.

I've known about that for over 30 years -

it's the famous collapse of the Gulf stream
which would plunge Europe into an ice age.

Bobby. wrote on Feb 12^th, 2024 at 5:05pm:

I've known about that for over 30 years - it's the famous collapse of the Gulf stream which would plunge Europe into an ice age.

Bingo!
But under today's conditions - probably not.

Jasin wrote on Feb 12^th, 2024 at 5:42pm:

Bobby. wrote on Feb 12th, 2024 at 5:05pm: I've known about that for over 30 years - it's the famous collapse of the Gulf stream which would plunge Europe into an ice age. Bingo! But under today's conditions - probably not.

A lot of Europe is at a similar latitude to Canada so it
would get much colder without the Gulf steam.

Think of the Sea Life also having more available access to migrate through the oceans and seas.

Block the Panama and Suez and the world is almost like a buffering Super-Continent hampering diversity of weather, life and everything else. Not good.

Jasin wrote on Feb 12^th, 2024 at 5:50pm:

Think of the Sea Life also having more available access to migrate through the oceans and seas. Block the Panama and Suez and the world is almost like a buffering Super-Continent hampering diversity of weather, life and everything else. Not good.

The Panama and Suez represent a drop in the oceans.    ::)

I know - but let's rip em wide open.  :D