Quote:

Geophysical consequences of celestial mechanics Posted on September 1, 2023 by curryja | 28 Comments by Vincent Courtillot, Jean-Louis Le Mouel and Fernando Lopes Sources of variability of some terrestrial and solar phenomena. As former members of the geomagnetism department at IPGP (Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris), we have always retained an interest in solar-terrestrial relationships. Being in charge of geophysical observatories, we have always paid the foremost attention to long series of observations and as a consequence to methods of time series analysis. As of some five years ago, we have undertaken a systematic study of several long series of observations recorded around the globe (“long” means from several decades up to three centuries). The research program has been quite productive, with the publication of some 24 articles in the past five years (all freely available online; references at the end of this note). The papers have been published in a very diverse set of journals, mostly in geophysics and astrophysics (in a broad sense). Because we came from the solid Earth geophysics community, it was not always easy at first to be recognized. Thus, we published in those journals where our French IPCC colleagues published, such as Cryosphere or Earth and Planetary Science Letters, MDPI or Frontiers. As a result, readers may have found it uneasy to grasp the wider picture. This short note is intended to try and draw this wider picture, to stress some of its consequences in the spirit of the paper’s title, and to give full references to the papers published in the frame of the program. We have first determined the spectral content of many long series of observations, using either the Wavelet Method (WM) or Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). These series include global mean temperature and pressure of the lower atmosphere, a number of climate-related indices, solar activity through sunspots, length of the day, geomagnetic indices, extent of high latitude sea-ice, and more… SSA allows one to decompose (in a way that a posteriori makes sense) a time series into a smooth trend and a series of components characterized by specific periodicities or pseudo-periods, based on which the series can be filtered and reconstructed. We first applied the method to the series of sunspot numbers. The series could be satisfactorily reconstructed from simply a (rather flat) trend and two components with periods 11 years (Schwabe cycle) and 90 years (Gleissberg cycle). More interestingly, these components allow one to construct a precise and robust model of solar activity and to predict (so far rather accurately) the ongoing sunspot cycle and beyond [ref 1, 2, 3]. We have next determined the SSA components of the length of day (or Earth’s rotation velocity) and motions of our planet’s pole of rotation. To the Schwabe and Gleissberg cycles could thus be added the Hale (~22 years) and Jose (~160 years) cycles [ref 4, 5, 6]. We also analyzed tide gauges and sea-level change [ref 7, 8]. In all these series we could recognize the signatures of the four Jovian planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune): i.e. their periods of rotation and many of their “commensurable” periods. This argues for a mechanism involving exchanges of angular momentum between the Sun, Earth and planets. Variations in the inclination of the rotation axis due to this coupling in turn affect insolation, much in the way exemplified by Milankovic cycles at much longer periods (from tens of thousands to millions of years). We propose to extend the concept of Milankovic cycles to the much shorter periods we have analyzed [ref 9, 10]. The main components mentioned above are common (in whole or in part) to all the series we have analyzed [ref 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24]. The fact that these series of components are found in the rotational mechanics of the planets and in many Earth-bound phenomena argues for a causal (forcing) relationship that can only work one way. The components one finds in sea level, pressure, temperature… must arise from a causal chain going (1) from Jovian planets to the Sun (or directly to Earth), then (2) to inclination changes in Earth’s rotation axis, with (3) consequences on insolation changes (therefore climate), sea level and tides [ref 8, 10, 17]. We note that trends could actually correspond to still other pseudo-periodic components with much longer pseudo-periods (longer than the data interval). As a result, we argue that a very large part of the geophysical and atmospheric variations covered by the series we have analyzed appear to have an external origin (astronomical or gravitational). The perturbing effects of the giant planets correspond to a remarkable set of frequencies [ref 5, 19] that modulate (force) solar activity, variations in inclination of the Earth’s rotation, many terrestrial parameters among which sea level, oceanographic indices, sea – ice and finally temperature. These components have in general not yet been modeled.These works shed light and are in turn illuminated by the works of giants, the Legendre, Laplace, Lagrange and Poisson, who revolutionized geophysics [ref 25, 26, 27, 28]. The core of their elegant physics explains well the careful observations gathered in the past 200 years.

https://judithcurry.com/2023/09/01/geophysical-consequences-of-celestial-mechanics/

[b]"History[/b]

Climate Etc is the blog of Judith A. Curry, who is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The blog publishes news and information regarding climate science and climate change from a skeptical perspective. She was a member of the National Research Council’s Climate Research Committee, published over a hundred scientific papers, and co-edited several significant works. Curry retired from academia in 2017.

According to the about page “Climate Etc. provides a forum for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public to discuss topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface.”

Read our profile on the United States government and media.
Funded by / Ownership

Judith Curry owns Climate Etc. Donations fund the website.

Analysis / Bias

Most articles reviewed minimize or deny the impacts of human-driven climate change. According to a Scientific American interview, Judith Curry admits to receiving funding from the fossil fuel industry. This article also labeled her a “climate heretic.” Further, Republicans have invited Judith Curry to testify at climate change hearings regarding alleged uncertainties regarding man-made climate change. Finally, Skeptical Science labeled Judith Curry a “Climate Misinformer.”

The website publishes blog posts by Judith Curry related to climate change, and they provide links to other sources that also promote human-influenced climate change denial, such as Watts Up With That and John Stossel, who is not even remotely a climate scientist. The consensus of climate scientists is that climate change is human-influenced, and this site minimizes that assessment. They have also failed numerous fact-checks.

Failed Fact Checks

“The Earth is not warming.” – Pants on Fire

    “It is an empirical fact that the Earth’s climate has warmed overall for at least the past century. However, we do not know how much humans have contributed to this warming, and there is disagreement among scientists as to whether human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases is the dominant cause of recent warming, relative to natural causes” – Misleading

    “And even the IPCC says more than half. That’s from 51 percent to 99 percent. That is a big interval… I just don’t know how much is human vs. how much is natural, and I think there is a great deal of uncertainty and it is very difficult to untangle it” – Incorrect

    “Current global climate models are not fit for the purpose of attributing the causes of recent warming or for predicting global or regional climate change on timescales of decades to centuries, with any high level of confidence.” – Incorrect
    “It’s been warming for hundreds of years! And we can’t explain all of that due to human causes..” – [color=#ff0000]Misleading[/color]
   
Antarctic sea-ice extent is increasing to record levels. Antarctica is getting colder; its sea ice and ice cap are not melting. – Inaccurate

Overall, we rate Climate Etc as a pseudoscience website due to its promotion of anti-climate science propaganda. (D. Van Zandt 10/14/2017) Updated (05/02/2023)"

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/climate-etc/


https://i.imgflip.com/3t6dm5.jpg

Linus wrote on Sep 3^rd, 2023 at 10:37pm:

[b]History[/b] Climate Etc is the blog of Judith A. Curry, who is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The blog publishes news and information regarding climate science and climate change from a skeptical perspective. She was a member of the National Research Council’s Climate Research Committee, published over a hundred scientific papers, and co-edited several significant works. Curry retired from academia in 2017. According to the about page “Climate Etc. provides a forum for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public to discuss topics related to climate science and the science-policy interface.” Read our profile on the United States government and media. Funded by / Ownership Judith Curry owns Climate Etc. Donations fund the website. Analysis / Bias Most articles reviewed minimize or deny the impacts of human-driven climate change. According to a Scientific American interview, Judith Curry admits to receiving funding from the fossil fuel industry. This article also labeled her a “climate heretic.” Further, Republicans have invited Judith Curry to testify at climate change hearings regarding alleged uncertainties regarding man-made climate change. Finally, Skeptical Science labeled Judith Curry a “Climate Misinformer.” The website publishes blog posts by Judith Curry related to climate change, and they provide links to other sources that also promote human-influenced climate change denial, such as Watts Up With That and John Stossel, who is not even remotely a climate scientist. The consensus of climate scientists is that climate change is human-influenced, and this site minimizes that assessment. They have also failed numerous fact-checks. Failed Fact Checks “The Earth is not warming.” – Pants on Fire     “It is an empirical fact that the Earth’s climate has warmed overall for at least the past century. However, we do not know how much humans have contributed to this warming, and there is disagreement among scientists as to whether human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases is the dominant cause of recent warming, relative to natural causes” – Misleading     “And even the IPCC says more than half. That’s from 51 percent to 99 percent. That is a big interval… I just don’t know how much is human vs. how much is natural, and I think there is a great deal of uncertainty and it is very difficult to untangle it” – Incorrect     “Current global climate models are not fit for the purpose of attributing the causes of recent warming or for predicting global or regional climate change on timescales of decades to centuries, with any high level of confidence.” – Incorrect     “It’s been warming for hundreds of years! And we can’t explain all of that due to human causes..” – [color=#ff0000]Misleading[/color]     Antarctic sea-ice extent is increasing to record levels. Antarctica is getting colder; its sea ice and ice cap are not melting. – Inaccurate Overall, we rate Climate Etc as a pseudoscience website due to its promotion of anti-climate science propaganda. (D. Van Zandt 10/14/2017) Updated (05/02/2023) https://i.imgflip.com/3t6dm5.jpg

The usual reaction from a climate cultist whose beliefs are shown to be erroneous.  ::)

Dear posters,
please limit highlighter to a few words here and there -
not whole paragraphs.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 3^rd, 2023 at 10:59pm:

Dear posters, please limit highlighter to a few words here and there - not whole paragraphs.

My apologies, I found most of it very interesting, given that it comes from an unbiased media fact checker.

I will comply to the request from this moment forth. Although elsewhere I have observed with a certain poster that this rule  does not appear to operate.

But rest assured, I will comply.

Linus wrote on Sep 3^rd, 2023 at 11:06pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 3rd, 2023 at 10:59pm: Dear posters, please limit highlighter to a few words here and there - not whole paragraphs. My apologies, I found most of it very interesting, given that it comes from an unbiased media fact checker. I will comply to the request from this moment forth. Although elsewhere I have observed with a certain poster that this rule  does not appear to operate. But rest assured, I will comply.

No worries -
highlighter hurts my eyes so I don't read any paragraphs that are all highlighted.

Quote:

Discredited, self-styled ‘fact-checker’ website was served with a ‘cease and desist’ legal notice today for publishing unsubstantiated and defamatory claims against Principia Scientific International (PSI). MEDIA BIAS/FACT CHECK site owner admits he is unqualified and misrepresented himself as a seasoned journalist.

Judith Curry is a "warmer". She just doesn't believe in thermogeddon.

::)But tell us more about the GBR and how Terry Hughes flew over at 150 feet to determine it was so bleached. ;)