Quote:

A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major concern as it is one of the most important tipping elements in Earth’s climate system1,2,3. In recent years, model studies and paleoclimatic reconstructions indicate that the strongest abrupt climate fluctuations, the Dansgaard-Oeschger events4, are connected to the bimodal nature of the AMOC5,6. Numerous climate model studies show a hysteresis behavior, where changing a control parameter, typically the freshwater input into the Northern Atlantic, makes the AMOC bifurcate through a set of co-dimension one saddle-node bifurcations7,8,9. State-of-the-art Earth-system models can reproduce such a scenario, but the inter-model spread is large and the critical threshold is poorly constrained10,11. Based on the CMIP5 generation of models, the AR6 IPCC report quotes a collapse in the 21st century to be very unlikely (medium confidence)12. Among CMIP6 models, there is a larger spread in the AMOC response to warming scenarios, thus an increased uncertainty in the assessment of a future collapse13. There are, however, model biases toward overestimated stability of the AMOC, both from tuning to the historic climate record14, poor representation of the deep water formation15, salinity and glacial runoff16.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=CONR_PF018_ECOM_GL_PHSS_ALWYS_DEEPLINK&utm_content=textlink&utm_term=PID100052172&CJEVENT=efd631492ba311ee81a1008f0a1eba22

The models say so. ::)