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Member Run Boards >> Environment >> ACORN-SAT http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1683452575 Message started by lee on May 7th, 2023 at 7:42pm |
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Title: ACORN-SAT Post by lee on May 7th, 2023 at 7:42pm Quote:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/may/07/climate-scientists-first-laughed-at-a-bizarre-campaign-against-the-bom-then-came-the-harassment So let's have a look at some findings - " Some such details are provided in Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) technical reports (e.g. use of 40 best-correlated sites for adjustments, thresholds for adjustment, and so on); however, the Forum concluded that it is likely to remain the case that several choices within the adjustment process remain a matter of expert judgment and appropriate disciplinary knowledge." If it can't be replicated it can't be science. Expert judgment is not replicable. "Reason for adjustment Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Statistical 209 244 Site moves (all) 176 170 Screen change or condition 79 77 Site condition (without move) 9 5 Observation time change 2 24 Total 450 491 Table 7 ACORN-SAT version 2 adjustments by cause. Totals do not add as some adjustments have multiple causes. " http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/BRR-032.pdf Statistics can't tell us what the temperature was at a site yesterday, let alone on a day 100 years ago. "Potshot was the top-secret WWII base that transitioned to RAAF Base Learmonth at the conclusion of WWII. By not adjusting for the highly significant maximum temperature (Tmax) step-change in 2002 detected by BomWatch, ACORN-SAT failed its primary objective which is to “produce a dataset which is more homogeneous for extremes as well as for means”. Either Blair Trewin assumed the 12-year overlap would be sufficient to hide the effect of transitioning from the former 230-litre Stevenson screen to the current 60-litre one; or his statistical methods that relied on reference series were incapable of objectively detecting and adjusting changes in the data. In either case it is another body-blow to Trewin’s homogenisation approach. Conflating the up-step in Tmax caused by the automatic weather station and 60-litre screen with “the climate” and lack of validation within the ACORN-SAT project generally, unethically undermines the science on which global warming depends. Due to their much-reduced size, and lack of internal buffering, 60-litre Stevenson screens are especially sensitive to warm eddies that arise from surfaces, buildings etc. that are not representative of the airmass being monitored. Increased numbers of daily observations/year ≥95th day-of-year dataset percentiles relative to those ≤5th day-of-year percentiles, which explains the up-step, is a measurement issue, not a climatological one." http://www.bomwatch.com.au/bureau-of-meterology/part-5-potshot-and-acorn-sat/ |
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