04/11/2019 -The serious weather phenomenon "El Niño" could soon occur again in the Pacific region. Researchers at Justus Liebig University Giessen (JLU), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel, find that there will probably be another "El Niño" by the end of 2020. The prediction models commonly used do not yet see any signs of this.

The groundbreaking early forecast is based on a novel algorithm developed by the researchers, which is relies on a network analysis of air temperatures in the Pacific region and which correctly predicted the last two "El Niño" events more than a year in advance. Such long-term predictions can, for example, help farmers in Brazil, Australia or India to prepare themselves and adjust their sowing accordingly.

A probability of around 80 percent

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/early-warning-physicists-from-giessen-potsdam-and-tel-aviv-forecast-el-nino-for-2020?set_language=en

So only 20% right at best.
"Central tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have continued to cool over the past fortnight. A temporary, slight weakening of the ENSO indices has been observed in the last fortnight, most likely largely due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving through the tropical Pacific region during this period; this influence has now passed.

All climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipate further cooling of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and that La Niña conditions will be sustained until at least February 2021. The cooling forecast by the models suggest this La Niña event will be of a moderate to strong nature, though conditions are currently weaker than those observed in the 2010 event. Bureau climatologists will continue to closely monitor model outlooks and conditions in the tropical Pacific for further developments to this La Niña event."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/.