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Member Run Boards >> Coronavirus >> The coming world recession http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1582846598 Message started by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:36am |
Title: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:36am
Its here now, those who have their heads in the sand and dont prepare will be victims. When America sneezes the world catches a cold.
Quote:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-just-logged-its-worst-2-day-point-slide-in-history-here-are-5-reasons-the-stock-market-is-tanking-and-it-isnt-just-the-coronavirus-2020-02-25 |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Gordon on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:37am
When Chinese eat bats..... :)
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:41am
My super is in cash anyway, I expect this recession to be as bad as the 80s one which effectively lasted 5 years..
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Lols on Feb 28th, 2020 at 10:14am rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:41am:
Correction, was the 90’s our “recession we had to have” (quoting Paul Keating) I remember that year it really took hold in 1990z Interest rates were up to 16-18% at June and by December went down to 8% Too late for the drastic interest rate drop, a lot of people lost their shirt off their backs already. Businesses suffered, many were merely working just to pay the interest in loans, , shops were empty by the scores, and every 2nd house was “mortgagee auction” ! Many that survived said they will never trust Banks or loans again. But alas, that was my generation that learnt to be careful, there’s always new generations to bamboozle along the way. Oh let me look, yep, last time I see interest rates below 4% and property prices are ridiculously high! It worries me for many of those that have huge borrowings. We have booms and busts all along history, think it won’t again? Look what a little invisible virus can do! My parents gen were known as the frugal generation, and any wonder, they went through “the depression” and war. They learnt to be wary. One had to go through it to understand it. Hubby and I are too frightened to get into debt now. We would rather hold back and that, is the way a lot of baby boomers must feel, we make up for a almost quarter of our Aussie population, and if we hold back, what happens to the financial state of affairs for all? That’s why car plants close down, shops such as big w closing down etc etc We got enough stuff, and the newer gens like minimalism. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Fuzzball on Feb 28th, 2020 at 10:30am rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:36am:
1. Covid-19 2. Covid-19 3. Covid-19 4. Covid-19 5. Covid-19 ;) |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Sir lastnail on Feb 28th, 2020 at 10:35am
What can will scumo kick down the road again to stop house prices from collapsing ? This I got to see :D LOL
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Captain Caveman on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:19pm
On the other hand....if you're not trying to keep up with the jones' this could turn out to be life changing in a positive way.
I feel sorry for anyone with a mortgage over 400k, two cars on hock, furniture on hock, boat on hock. They own nothing and will be stripped of it all if shyte really hits the fan. I know of at least five people in this situation. They love showing you what they have too. Very silly people IMO. They didn't research what a bank is and does and how they are run...and by who. "The friendly girl at the counter was so nice to us" or "our bank is great"....gets em every time. Tell them this though and they snarl at you. People with investment properties paying interest only....farrkkking suicidal but again, you can't tell them. Anyway....We're ready to snap up some bargains soon, maybe. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by cods on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:36pm Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 10:35am:
oh look rusty has found something to smile about! |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:40pm Sophia wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 10:14am:
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:43pm Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:19pm:
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:45pm Fuzzball wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 10:30am:
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Captain Caveman on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:53pm rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:43pm:
That is why I feel for them. I have friends that stand to lose the lot because they wouldn't listen to some simple methods. My wife is a money person. She advised one couple and now they don't talk to us. All she was saying is "pay your house an investment unit off as quick as you can"...not the full term And definitely not interest only. We purchased our house. Went without everything and smashed out the mortgage. We have done the hard yards for fear of another looming 90's. I hate borrowing. I spend but I have a healthy income. If I lose that income, we will not lose. What got us however was the interest rates dropping so far. While they are down so low is the time to wack that mortgage.....but people aren't doing this. Instead they borrow more. That is not good. I have always distrusted the banks. They are evil. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Bam on Feb 28th, 2020 at 6:09pm Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:53pm:
Too many people have become complacent. Anyone under 45 has not known the pain of recession. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Lols on Feb 28th, 2020 at 6:48pm rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:40pm:
The 80s is an interesting era, early 80s property prices boomed or doubled. By later 80s it became a boom time for lending and people were warned not to borrow, not to go into it too deep. But many didn’t take heed of that advice. Remember this... "By 1990, no Australian child will be living in poverty," the then-prime minister told Labor's election campaign launch on June 23, 1987. 1987 global share market crashed down 40% but not real estate at that point in time. It was late 89 the variable interest hit an all time high @ 17%. Then the shyte started to hit the fan by 1990 and was awful for a long time during the 1990s. The 80s were up and down but the 90s were just down. I think Victoria was hit hard because people from NSW come down to buy stuff and says to us “everything in Victoria seems to be for sale”. Banks lending money was still easy, as we found out. We went the opposite of everyone and borrowed to buy houses to fix, rent and create our income. It was positive gearing at that point. I had a formula worked out. We easily borrowed over that course, $1,020,000 @ 6% interest only. If it wasn’t for easy lending in the 1990s to mid 2000s we could not have done it. Now, we can’t borrow even though we have equity, the banks have really tightened up. So if anyone thinks there will be bargain houses coming up due to some impending recession because of this virus, think again, the banks won’t lend you money to buy, unless you are earning big money and have job security and equity with no other debts you may be currently paying. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 6:58pm Captain Caveman wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 5:53pm:
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Lols on Feb 28th, 2020 at 7:02pm Bam wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 6:09pm:
That’s the worry and it bothers me. When interest was high, property prices were low. Now, interest rates are so low, yet property prices are ridiculously high! It’s worse than a see-saw effect. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Captain Caveman on Feb 28th, 2020 at 7:12pm rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 6:58pm:
Ahh copy. Yep...thank fkkk for idiots. The life of credit and perishables. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Lols on Feb 28th, 2020 at 7:23pm rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 6:58pm:
With rentals, young couples once bubbies come along, can’t afford to live out on their own. They go back to live with their parents, hoping to save enough for a deposit perhaps. So much for the nuclear family. We see we need to help our kids out, they truly are the generation of struggle to keep head above water in “interesting times” of uncertainty. I’m fuming I need to borrow to purchase for our down sizing but bank has knocked us back. I don’t want Bridging loan as it is only for 6 months and too risky re time factor. I was told yesterday, or warned, at end of 6 months if our property is not sold, the bank will just take it and sell like that (snaps fingers) for any price. (I recall they were like that during recession and mortgages auctions! ) I have been told banks are like that now, and I should try private lending. Now I’m feeling nervous. Stumbling block, so I will do nothing instead. That’s how we are not able to move forward. F.k the bank. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by John Smith on Feb 28th, 2020 at 8:31pm
bring on the recession 8-) 8-) 8-)
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Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 28th, 2020 at 8:56pm Sophia wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 7:23pm:
Then only reason Im still working is to help my kids out. I think you are wise not to do the bridging loan, Ive seen more than a few people come cropper with this loans. Heres how I think this country has stuffed it up over the last few decades. We have created an economy where both couples need to work to keep up with the Joneses, then we have subsidised childcare partly in the quest for 'equal opportunity". So kids are brought up by strangers who no matter how well they do their job dont teach or invest these kids with appropriate values, and this has been a social disaster. These kids have now grown up, never experienced a recession, do not have the values of their grandparents who knew what being frugal was all about. I also wonder how "liberated" many women now feel when half their wages are going towards childcare, they work and barely see their own kids. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Captain Caveman on Feb 29th, 2020 at 8:05am rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 8:56pm:
Spot on. We have created a greedy disposable lifestyle run on endorphins. People are investing money in depreciating disposable goods because they have to have it now....instead of saving for it. One look at the line up at a new iphone release. Crazy. Those people already have a phone that works but they want the new one...and in most cases take out a plan that has an extra phone payment tacked on top. New vehicles driven out of a showroom depreciate up to 25% in some cases (cab chassis utes) while they trade in their older vehicle for next to nothing. A vehicle that still works fine and is sold on as second hand for more than it was traded...in most cases. I'm sick of hearing the old chestnut "i need to for tax". WTAF? No you dont. I dont. If they are builders paying their own tax etc that may be of an advantage...but a construction worker on wages on a building site...no thanks. Furniture. FFS televisions stereos on credit. I shake my head. All to watch some fake reality TV program...or the nightly propaganda at 6pm. Mental. Our household does not watch television. Some netflix but mostly YouTube and vimeo. The aerial only gets plugged in on state of origin. Missus is bluezer and the kids and I are QLD. Boats. Something used probably 20 times a year....if they're lucky. 50k+ depreciating in the driveway beside the fully optioned BT50 ranger. I have a boat...but I own it outright. I saved the money and built it as I had the coin. Took me nearly 2 years. But I appreciate it a hell of a lot more than some people I know. Then smokes...grog...drugs....and whatever other vices they seem to think they need. These are just some of the weekly expenses people are paying for.....with interest on top. There is no way I could live like that. The stress must be unbearable...but I guess they've grown immune to it.....untill the depression hits. I predict the suicide rate to go through the roof if we hit a real depression. Who wins out of all these fools? The banks or credit agencies who borrow from the banks. And some people with these items are still renting. They wonder why they can't afford a house while they suck down a winny blue with a can of JD and cola every afternoon. No one has savings anymore. They live on credit. It is pandemic. Savings accounts would make interest for you back in the day....now the interest is on credit and the banks cash in. Savings interest rates are very low....so the smarter people now invest in stocks, property or the new fad, bullion trading. All gambling but better returns than the perishables that silly people throw money at. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Gnads on Feb 29th, 2020 at 8:25am rhino wrote on Feb 28th, 2020 at 9:36am:
It was actually China sneezes & the world catches a cold. We had the GFC only 12 years ago .... no one died from that... a lot of people got ruined but no one died. What this current event has shown is simply a result of putting too many eggs in the same basket(China). Are the Yanks the sole contributors to that? NO. We have, the UK has, Japan has, Germany has ... etc etc. Another Global pandemic was always going to happen at some time ...... the dumb idea was shutting down industry in the West, pushing global free trade & exploitation of cheap labour ...... & then majority centralizing it in one or 2 countries that are relatively close. Then another retrograde step like Australia selling off it's land & food security to the highest bidder from foreign countries .... especially China. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by chimera on Feb 29th, 2020 at 8:34am Gnads wrote on Feb 29th, 2020 at 8:25am:
Pangolins have live birth , do you mean lining up ducks in a row? Kimberley iron-ore and Newcastle coal are sold off for national security. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Ajax on Feb 29th, 2020 at 9:00am
All recessions are technically created by the oligarchy.
And now that they have a central bank in all nations bar North Korea and Iran it affects the whole world not just the USA. Quote:
Quote:
If interested watch this, there are five parts all together this is the first one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZ3ASEGTIc4 |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Ajax on Feb 29th, 2020 at 9:11am
For the 1920-21 USA depression United States Congressman Charles Lindbergh said the following.
Quote:
Last year you got a bit of super this year it will be taken away. Nothing personal just part of the games the oligarchy play. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Gnads on Feb 29th, 2020 at 9:20am chimera wrote on Feb 29th, 2020 at 8:34am:
Irrelevant ... as is much of what you post. Do they really? |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by cods on Feb 29th, 2020 at 9:51am
maybe its a good time to get back to basics...
we cant even make shoe laces in this country..bah humbug |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by cods on Feb 29th, 2020 at 9:54am Ajax wrote on Feb 29th, 2020 at 9:11am:
its really greed its gripped us all. more more demand demand.. its all we hear... is anyone happy??? not that I notice... >:( |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Carl D on Feb 29th, 2020 at 10:11am
Interesting discussion I've been reading on another forum where someone is suggesting media owners (for radio, TV, newspapers, etc.) are deliberately making up overexaggerated stories about the coronavirus to make investors panic and sell their stocks then the media owners 'swoop in' and buy stocks at record low prices.
One poster even suggests this has happened with stock market crises in the past. I'm not one for believing in conspiracy theories but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this one were true. |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by The_Barnacle on Feb 29th, 2020 at 12:16pm Carl D wrote on Feb 29th, 2020 at 10:11am:
But even the ABC are reporting heavily on the Corona virus and they don't have any "media owners" I think that we often like to blame the media when in fact they report what we want to hear. There is an incredible amount of panic about this virus. We have a thread on this forum which is already at 83 pages. Add to this the misinformation spread by social media and most people complete lack of understanding about the biology of disease and everything is cherry ripe for a massive panic |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by Carl D on Feb 29th, 2020 at 1:06pm The_Barnacle wrote on Feb 29th, 2020 at 12:16pm:
Yep, and especially if we keep seeing things like this. The front page of today's West Australian newspaper which I've just brought back from the shops. Hard to decide if it's the media owners' attempt to buy up cheap shares as I've mentioned in my earlier post or an attempt to sell more newspapers. Probably both. "We're for you". Yeah, right. ![]() |
Title: Re: The coming world recession Post by rhino on Feb 29th, 2020 at 1:22pm
They simply reported the health ministers view on the matter. They are preparing for 25 percent of Australians to get it with 84 percent presenting as mild cases, which is cool if you are in that 84 percent out of the 25. The rest will be in intensive care with a fatality rate of 2 to 3 percent. That is the health ministers view of it after consultation with scientists and health professionals. As many countries including the US are now experiencing cases from unknown origin and there is an incubation period of around 2 weeks I would suggest that it is spreading rapidly by those who dont even know they have it. I reckon we will know how serious its gonna be in around 2 weeks.
The people who have died and who are dying from it are the elderly, smokers or those with reduced lung capacity and of course those with compromised immune systems. The main issue for me is that I doubt whether we have the health resources to put an extra 2 percent of the whole population into intensive care. |
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