No wonder the home brew is getting low, driest summer for 32yrs as well, something seems to be going on.

Is that using ACORN1 or ACORN 2 "data".

lee wrote on Mar 1^st, 2019 at 10:12pm:

Is that using ACORN1 or ACORN 2 "data".

BOM

Johnnie wrote on Mar 1^st, 2019 at 10:14pm:

BOM

Yes. BoM.

Now has RAW data, i.e. original data, The homogenised (adjusted) ACORN1 "data" and the new improved homogenised (adjusted) ACORN2 "data".

lee wrote on Mar 1^st, 2019 at 10:18pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 1st, 2019 at 10:14pm: BOM Yes. BoM. Now has RAW data, i.e. original data, The homogenised (adjusted) ACORN1 "data" and the new improved homogenised (adjusted) ACORN2 "data".

I think you have that the wrong way around Lee, BoM said it was the hottest or record.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 1^st, 2019 at 9:35pm:

No wonder the home brew is getting low, driest summer for 32yrs as well, something seems to be going on.

Before 1788.
The aboriginals were coming out of a 10,000 year 'drought' due to Ice Age.

Jasin wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2019 at 1:52am:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 1st, 2019 at 9:35pm: No wonder the home brew is getting low, driest summer for 32yrs as well, something seems to be going on. Before 1788. The aboriginals were coming out of a 10,000 year 'drought' due to Ice Age.

Nobody deserves to go through a drought that goes for that long, its little wonder they are so thirsty these days.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 1^st, 2019 at 9:35pm:

No wonder the home brew is getting low, driest summer for 32yrs as well, something seems to be going on.

Townsville would disagree
Where was it the driest on 32 years?

Don't worry about lee, his sole purpose is to try and confuse, obfuscate and discredit.

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2019 at 10:06am:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 1st, 2019 at 9:35pm: No wonder the home brew is getting low, driest summer for 32yrs as well, something seems to be going on. Townsville would disagree Where was it the driest on 32 years? Don't worry about lee, his sole purpose is to try and confuse, obfuscate and discredit.

The figures are nation wide, when Townsville got bucket loads SA got zero for the whole of summer.

Lee is very good with graphs and pie charts but I don't think he has been outside for the last 20yrs.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2019 at 10:26am:

The figures are nation wide, when Townsville got bucket loads SA got zero for the whole of summer.

So the post heading says it is the hottest summer record. The claim then is it is the driest in  32 years.

The good news for the second event must be that it was as dry or drier 33 years ago. Damn. That global warming precipitation just keeps on varying.


Johnnie wrote on Mar 1^st, 2019 at 10:40pm:

I think you have that the wrong way around Lee, BoM said it was the hottest or record.

And I am asking you whether it is the RAW data, ACORN1 "data" or ACORN2 "data" that they are using?

Seeing it was the "hottest summer on record" they must use the climate "data".

"The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset has been developed to monitor climate variability and change in Australia."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/

So is it ACORN1 "data" or the new improved ACORN2 "data"?

"The Bureau's updated dataset is known as ACORN-SAT version 2, or simply, ACORN-SAT.

It is standard practice for major meteorological organisations to update their datasets, to ensure they are incorporating the latest scientific understanding, computing capabilities and additional data.

The aim of such revisions is to provide improved estimates of historical changes in climate. ACORN-SAT version 2 reaffirms the results of previous datasets which chronicle Australia's warming trend."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/

So just adjust the adjustment of ACORN1.. That way we get a new improved estimate.

BTW - ACORN uses data from 112 stations Australia wide. So 7.6 million sq km's divide by 112. An average of only about 67,800 sq km each. Although because there are more stations in the south east that would skew the result. Just imagine if they were all in the northern half of Australia. ;)

And I thought adjusting for UHI was to lower the temperatures. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

The caravan moves on, leaving Lee in its dust.

Poor lost fishy. Still stuck in his caravan to nowhere. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

But it is good to see that you have no rebuttal. ;)

lee wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2019 at 12:40pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 2nd, 2019 at 10:26am: The figures are nation wide, when Townsville got bucket loads SA got zero for the whole of summer. So the post heading says it is the hottest summer record. The claim then is it is the driest in  32 years. The good news for the second event must be that it was as dry or drier 33 years ago. Damn. That global warming precipitation just keeps on varying. Johnnie wrote on Mar 1st, 2019 at 10:40pm: I think you have that the wrong way around Lee, BoM said it was the hottest or record. And I am asking you whether it is the RAW data, ACORN1 "data" or ACORN2 "data" that they are using? Seeing it was the "hottest summer on record" they must use the climate "data". "The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) dataset has been developed to monitor climate variability and change in Australia." http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/ So is it ACORN1 "data" or the new improved ACORN2 "data"? "The Bureau's updated dataset is known as ACORN-SAT version 2, or simply, ACORN-SAT. It is standard practice for major meteorological organisations to update their datasets, to ensure they are incorporating the latest scientific understanding, computing capabilities and additional data. The aim of such revisions is to provide improved estimates of historical changes in climate. ACORN-SAT version 2 reaffirms the results of previous datasets which chronicle Australia's warming trend." http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/ So just adjust the adjustment of ACORN1.. That way we get a new improved estimate. BTW - ACORN uses data from 112 stations Australia wide. So 7.6 million sq km's divide by 112. An average of only about 67,800 sq km each. Although because there are more stations in the south east that would skew the result. Just imagine if they were all in the northern half of Australia. ;) And I thought adjusting for UHI was to lower the temperatures. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

You just contradicted yourself Lee, now backup and see where you went wrong.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2019 at 1:27pm:

You just contradicted yourself Lee, now backup and see where you went wrong.

Oh dear poor petal can't work it out so it must be my fault. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's.
Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? ;)

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:36am:

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's. Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? ;)

That's the MO of the deniers.
Cherry pick one weather station out of the 1000 that the BOM have, misrepresent the statistics for a few years of the 100 years of observations and then imply that this shows the BOM are being fraudulent.

Sorry but i believe actual scientists rather than politically motivated keyboard warriors like lee

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:36am: So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's. Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? ;) That's the MO of the deniers. Cherry pick one weather station out of the 1000 that the BOM have, misrepresent the statistics for a few years of the 100 years of observations and then imply that this shows the BOM are being fraudulent. Sorry but i believe actual scientists rather than politically motivated keyboard warriors like lee

Well said sir!  8-)

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:36am:

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's. Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? ;)

You can look at the data available from BoM and make up your own mind. Having changed the "data" it then becomes  part of their Summer temperatures "data".

What makes you think Darwin is the  only one?

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am:

Cherry pick one weather station out of the 1000 that the BOM have, misrepresent the statistics for a few years of the 100 years of observations and then imply that this shows the BOM are being fraudulent.

Only 112 in ACORN.

So you have checked the other 111 stations and say with great certainty that they haven't been similarly affected? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D


The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am:

Sorry but i believe actual scientists rather than politically motivated keyboard warriors like lee

You do know the homogenisation is done on computer? That makes them the true keyboard warriors. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

"The Forum noted that the extent to which the development of the ACORN-SAT dataset from the raw data could be automated was likely to be limited, and that the process might better be described as a supervised process in which the roles of metadata and other information required some level of expertise and operator intervention. The Forum investigated the nature of the operator intervention required and the bases on which such decisions are made and concluded that very detailed instructions from the Bureau are likely to be necessary for an end-user who wishes to reproduce the ACORN-SAT findings. Some such details are provided in Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) technical reports (e.g. use of 40 bestcorrelated sites for adjustments, thresholds for adjustment, and so on); however, the Forum concluded that it is likely to remain the case that several choices within the adjustment process remain a matter of expert judgment and appropriate disciplinary knowledge."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf

Expert judgement means it can't be replicated. If it can't be replicated it can't be science.

lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 12:19pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:36am: So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's. Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? ;) You can look at the data available from BoM and make up your own mind. Having changed the "data" it then becomes  part of their Summer temperatures "data". What makes you think Darwin is the  only one?

Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked.... So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? :
Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer... Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer) ;)

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked....

Well the evidence is that BoM has changed the algorithm. I doubt they only did it for one. ;)


DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

. So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? :

You can check the data if you wish. BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes?


DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer.

How can anyone be sure? ;)


DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer)

We know ACORN2 data is changed in at least one instance. I doubt they would have gone to the expense of developing ACORN2, merely to change just one station. That would imply incompetence, ;)

lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:14pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked.... Well the evidence is that BoM has changed the algorithm. I doubt they only did it for one. ;) DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: . So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? : You can check the data if you wish. BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes? DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer. How can anyone be sure? ;) DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer) We know ACORN2 data is changed in at least one instance. I doubt they would have gone to the expense of developing ACORN2, merely to change just one station. That would imply incompetence, ;)

ahh so your saying u don't know if its the hottest summer but your going to cast doubt just in case, got it  ;)

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 6:02pm:

ahh so your saying u don't know if its the hottest summer but your going to cast doubt just in case, got it

Based on what is known from BoM's adjustments.


lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:14pm:

BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes?

You didn't answer why BoM changed Darwin given that there are no adds, moves or changes to the station. ;)

You must have a pet theory.

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 6:02pm:

lee wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:14pm: DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked.... Well the evidence is that BoM has changed the algorithm. I doubt they only did it for one. ;) DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: . So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? : You can check the data if you wish. BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes? DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer. How can anyone be sure? ;) DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3rd, 2019 at 5:02pm: Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer) We know ACORN2 data is changed in at least one instance. I doubt they would have gone to the expense of developing ACORN2, merely to change just one station. That would imply incompetence, ;) ahh so your saying u don't know if its the hottest summer but your going to cast doubt just in case, got it  ;)

That's all lee ever does

can confirm lee just obfuscates. 2018 hottest year on record, 2019 has so far set 40 record highs and two record lows (Globally)

I dunno. This summer looked the hottest to me, so far.
:D

---

Pho Huc wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 11:06am:

can confirm lee just obfuscates. 2018 hottest year on record, 2019 has so far set 40 record highs and two record lows (Globally)

2018 was the hottest year on record where?

According to BoM it was the third warmist in Australia.


According to NOAA globally it was the fourth warmest globally.


Do you just make these things up as you go along?

Those 2 record lows globally; I think it is time for you to check.

"The dangerously cold weather is still setting low-temperature records in many Iowa communities."

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/minnesota/articles/2019-01-31/the-latest-more-school-office-closures-due-to-midwest-cold

"many" seems to indicate more than two, and that is just one US state.i

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 9:52am:

That's all lee ever does

Poor barney. Trolling again.

I see you haven't come up with a logical argument for Darwin's Temperature record being upscaled again despite there being no adds. moves and changes since 2012.

Classic troll. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

It appeard Rutherglen Victoria has also had the adjustemnt screws put to it in ACORN2.

https://jennifermarohasy.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/chart.png

More -

"From 1910 to 1963, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8C+ days in ACORN 1 by 12.5% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 19.9%. From 1964 to 2017, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in ACORN 1 by 5.8% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 4.0% The averaged temperature of days at 37.8C or more didn't change in ACORN 1, increased 0.1C in ACORN 2 and increased 0.2C in RAW (download all 57 stations Excel).

http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/imgs/century.gif

The hottest day among the 57 stations in ACORN 2 was Carnarvon at 51.0C on 23 January 1953, which would officially be the hottest day ever recorded in Australia (vs Oodnadatta Airport at 50.7C on 2 January 1960 - source). In the ACORN 1 dataset, 23 January 1953 at Carnarvon was 48.5C. In RAW it was 47.7C. ACORN 1 lists Albany at 51.2C on 8 February 1933 but ACORN 2 cools this day to 49.5C (RAW 44.8C)."

http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/index.html

lee wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 3:48pm:

More - "From 1910 to 1963, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8C+ days in ACORN 1 by 12.5% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 19.9%. From 1964 to 2017, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in ACORN 1 by 5.8% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 4.0% The averaged temperature of days at 37.8C or more didn't change in ACORN 1, increased 0.1C in ACORN 2 and increased 0.2C in RAW (download all 57 stations Excel). http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/imgs/century.gif The hottest day among the 57 stations in ACORN 2 was Carnarvon at 51.0C on 23 January 1953, which would officially be the hottest day ever recorded in Australia (vs Oodnadatta Airport at 50.7C on 2 January 1960 - source). In the ACORN 1 dataset, 23 January 1953 at Carnarvon was 48.5C. In RAW it was 47.7C. ACORN 1 lists Albany at 51.2C on 8 February 1933 but ACORN 2 cools this day to 49.5C (RAW 44.8C)." http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/index.html

Well going on those stats and the graph above you are finally starting to come around, good work.

The alarm bells certainly are ringing as 97% of climate scientists would agree.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm:

Well going on those stats and the graph above you are finally starting to come around, good work

Yes The raw data indicates the real number of early year hot days.

ACORN1 reduced them by 5,000 and ACORN2 by a further 7.000. but I am puzzled how they arrived at that. Ouija board perhaps?


Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm:

The alarm bells certainly are ringing as 97% of climate scientists would agree.

Which 97% of climate scientists would that be petal? Cook et al 2013? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:59pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6th, 2019 at 6:34pm: Well going on those stats and the graph above you are finally starting to come around, good work Yes The raw data indicates the real number of early year hot days. ACORN1 reduced them by 5,000 and ACORN2 by a further 7.000. but I am puzzled how they arrived at that. Ouija board perhaps? Johnnie wrote on Mar 6th, 2019 at 6:34pm: The alarm bells certainly are ringing as 97% of climate scientists would agree. Which 97% of climate scientists would that be petal? Cook et al 2013? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

The 97% that agree that rapid climate change is because of us.

If I was a petal I would have been burnt to a crisp after this, the hottest summer in OZ.

My good old plum tree looks as though it has taken a major hit, I don't think it is going to make it.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 7:23pm:

The 97% that agree that rapid climate change is because of us.

"We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. "

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

This is from the vaunted Cook et al paper.
So 97.1% of climate papers that expressed an opinion, 32.6% and 0.7%, or 33.3% held an opinion. And seeing as climate papers have more than one author even less "climate scientists". Remember climate papers not climate scientists. And 97.1% of 33.3% is definitely not 97% of climate scientists.

Oh and the climate scientists that said climate change was mostly human driven? 0.3%.

The full details are available at

https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt

Note endosement 1.

The ratings - skepticalscience.com/docs/self_vs_abstracts_private.txt

The endorsemens are at column 3.

Should you wish to do it all yourself. Enjoy.


Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 7:23pm:

My good old plum tree looks as though it has taken a major hit, I don't think it is going to make it.

And fruit trees last forever. ;D ;D ;D

Thank you for spelling out the utter dishonesty of the 'AGW is 97% endorsed' load of BS.  It is indeed 97% of the one third of scientists who did take a position on the causes of climate change.

NB - only one third took a position on he causes of it. And it was 97% OF THOSE who sided with AGW. A SCIENTIFIC MINORITY by a robust margin.

We did have a hot summer.
I think it's over now.
Temperatures were single digits overnight:

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml

.7% rejected AGW.

Pho Huc wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 1:18pm:

.7% rejected AGW.

very good. You can read. So now you know 0.7% of ABSTRACTS not climate scientists rejected AGW.

32.6% of abstracts endorsed AGW at some level. 0.3% of abstracts had the opinion that AGW was more than 50% caused by humans.

Personally I agree there may well be some AGW, the science says so. How much has not been quantified.

To quantify you need to know two of three parameters. The parameters are Natural CO2 emissions, Himan caused CO2 emissions and Total CO2 emissions. With any two you can work out the third. You can't work it out from one parameter only.

Bobby. wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 5:17am:

We did have a hot summer. I think it's over now. Temperatures were single digits overnight: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml

yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD.  ;)

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:10pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 7th, 2019 at 5:17am: We did have a hot summer. I think it's over now. Temperatures were single digits overnight: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD.  ;)

Melbourne is lovely and cool at night - single digit temps -
and warm days.
It's perfect weather but I'm worried about a drought.
It's been so dry.

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:10pm:

yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD.

And it has never been like that in Queensland in Autumn before. ;D ;D ;D

lee wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:33pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 7th, 2019 at 3:10pm: yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD.  And it has never been like that in Queensland in Autumn before. ;D ;D ;D

nope.. never and too hot to argue  ;D ;D ;D ;D