GetUp poll points to Abbott electoral defeat   :)

February 9, 2019
Canberra Times


Independent candidate Zali Steggall is on track to replace former prime minister Tony Abbott as the federal member for Warringah, according to a ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp.

The activist group, which is campaigning to oust Mr Abbott from his traditionally Liberal seat on Sydney's northern beaches, commissioned a poll of 622 residents that showed the four-time Winter Olympian leading 54 to 46 on a two-party preferred basis.


Zali Steggall is on track to win the seat of Warringah, according to a GetUp poll.

The athlete-turned-barrister has positioned herself as an advocate of the "sensible centre" – economically responsible, while progressive on social issues and climate change.

Although the reliability of pre-election polls has been questioned, GetUp has seized on the results in support of its claim that Mr Abbott is "out of touch" with the majority of his electorate. The group is preparing a repeat of efforts backing Kerryn Phelps at last year's Wentworth byelection.


Campaign director Miriam Lyons said the polling backed what activists were hearing from voters in Warringah, especially on climate change – identified as the number-one reason for an intention to vote against Mr Abbott.

"This is just one poll, and we’re still a long way off the election, but I can’t imagine these numbers help Tony Abbott sleep at night," Ms Lyons said.

"He cannot escape the reality that most people in his electorate want to show him the door."   :)

In the poll, 60 per cent of voters rated Mr Abbott's performance as a local member as "poor", and the same number said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate "with a plan to tackle climate change by replacing coal with clean energy".

For those who had previously voted for Mr Abbott but now planned to change their vote, the figure was 78 per cent.

Participants were asked about their voting intentions if the federal election, due in May, was held today and were instructed to chose between Ms Steggall, fellow independent Susan Moylan-Coombs, the Liberal Party, the ALP, the Greens or "other".

"Tony Abbott is out of touch," Ms Lyons said. "[He] has had 24 years to show he’s willing to listen to his community on issues like climate change and marriage equality, and for 24 years he’s chosen to go off and fight right-wing culture wars instead."

GetUp has signed up hundreds of volunteers to doorknock across Warringah, man phone banks and hand out how-to-vote cards in support of Ms Steggall.

Ms Lyons said Warringah voters cared deeply about climate change and expected the government to act.

"They know that Tony Abbott, more than anyone else in Parliament, has sabotaged renewable energy and blocked action on climate change and they’re ready to hold him accountable."

But the campaign director acknowledged that unseating Mr Abbott, who holds his seat on a 12 per cent margin, would be "a monumental task".

"He has the backing of a party machine and the coal lobby, and donors will pour millions of dollars into his campaign," Ms Lyons said. "It’s going to be a long, tough fight.

Thank goodness for that!

It is way past time that ratbag was thrown out.  :)

about time the people of Warringah woke up to themselves.

;D ;D ;D

While it would be a great result I cannot see it happening.

get up poll, yeah that's going to be impartial.  ::)

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 10^th, 2019 at 1:35pm:

get up poll, yeah that's going to be impartial.  ::)

ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp.

Dickhead! ::)

Dnarever wrote on Feb 10^th, 2019 at 1:27pm:

While it would be a great result I cannot see it happening.

I disagree. The voting profile is similar to other seats that have fallen to independents in recent years.

Any seat that is considered "safe" for either major party can be vulnerable to falling to a prominent independent if three things happen:

* The independent reaches the last three candidates
* The share of the vote for the independent is greater than the share of the vote for the other major party when counting has eliminated all but three candidates
* The share of the vote for the major party that holds the seat drops far enough below 50%.

Seats that are more marginal are harder for independents to win because both major parties campaign harder in marginal seats, both major parties poll strongly, and the number of votes an independent needs to finish ahead of either major party is higher.

Two examples to illustrate the point:

---

Dension, 2010, considered safe Labor. Primary votes:

Labor 36% (new Labor candidate)
Liberal 23%
Wilkie 21%
Greens 19%
Socialist Alliance 1%

2CP:
Wilkie 51%
Labor 49%

---

Indi 2013, considered safe Liberal. Primary votes:

Liberal 45% (Sophie Mirabella)
McGowan 31%
Labor 12%
8 others 12%

2CP:
McGowan 50.2%
Liberal 49.8%

Redmond Neck wrote on Feb 10^th, 2019 at 1:51pm:

Postmodern Trendoid III wrote on Feb 10th, 2019 at 1:35pm: get up poll, yeah that's going to be impartial.  ::) ReachTEL poll commissioned by GetUp. Dickhead! ::)

I always take polls like this with a grain of salt. The poll itself may be reliable, but polls "commissioned" by particular groups or parties may be withheld from public view if the poll wasn't favourable.

He is gone

No not the suppository of all wisdom how could it be so !!!

What a sad demise it would be for The man who made the whole world laugh.

More on independents versus Coalition contests here: Independents and climate form perfect storm for the good ship Coalition

Quote:

The crucial primary vote While the publicity surrounding them is intensifying, there remains a deep caution about the independents’ capacity to win a ground campaign against major parties. Independent analysis commissioned to test the capacity of challenges in safe seats, obtained by Guardian Australia, looked at 30 election results since 2007 where the final preference count was between the Coalition and an independent (excluding optional preferential voting systems). It found the lowest recorded primary vote for a winning Coalition candidate was 42.7% for Rowan Ramsay in the South Australian seat of Grey in 2016 against Nick Xenophon Team (now Centre Alliance) candidate Andrea Broadfoot (she is running again this year). Apart from that contest, it’s safe to say that if a sitting MP gets a primary vote above 45%, the MP wins but if an independent can push the MP below 45%, the independent wins – albeit by sometimes tiny margins. Previously successful independents have combined a well-organised campaign, good local community support and an unpopular sitting MP and/or a federal government on the nose.

Could Tony Abbott lose to an independent? If the zeitgeist is any guide, he’s on thin ice