Targeting Tony Abbott: inside the micro-campaigns to unseat the former PM

Quote:

There is a groundswell in Warringah and – worryingly for Abbott – the disparate groups are coordinating. If the posters popping up around Manly and sales of anti–Tony Abbott T-shirts are any gauge, the member for Warringah has a fight on his hands. “There’s a huge amount of grassroots activity. Organisations are popping out of the ground everywhere. And we are finding each other,” says Louise Hislop, the convenor of Voices of Warringah.

(See link for full article.)

If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat

The_Barnacle wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:42pm:

If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat

Such as?

April_Flowers wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:43pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 3:42pm: If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat Such as?

A younger, more moderate candidate endorsed by the local branch of the Liberal party. The Liberals will be considering generational change after the next election. They should get started cleaning out the deadwood now or the electorate will start doing it for them at the election.

Abbott could be in trouble. If the voters decide to unseat an MP, they will do so. Remember what happened to Mirabella in Indi? Wentworth? If the Voices for Warringah groups coordinate around a good local independent, Abbott will be gone at the next election.

Abbott won't be the last Coalition MP facing a grassroots rebellion at the ballot box. Others may be in trouble.

Nothing is certain in politcs it could be a good independent may unseat Abbott....its certain he needs to go the bloke is toxic to good government.

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone.

And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos??

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah.

Any Liberal representative.

They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do.

Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

matty wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm:

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it.

It's no different really to the Liberals' habit of disseminating their electoral propaganda on social media without proper attribution.

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Did you read the article? You missed this salient point:


Quote:

Warringah is both similar and different to Wentworth. In the 2016 election Abbott won handsomely with 61.5% of the two-party-preferred vote, beating the Greens candidate, Clara Williams Roldan, who leapfrogged Labor in the preference count to finish second. But the primary vote tells a more nuanced and potentially worrying story for Abbott in the light of the Wentworth byelection. In 2016 Abbott attracted 51.6% of first preferences, down nine points on his 2013 result, while the ALP got 14.8%; the Greens 12.2% and the independent 11.4%. If the independent can suppress Abbott’s primary vote to below 40% and come second ahead of Labor and the Greens, then a repeat of the Wentworth phenomenon is possible. The ReachTel poll of 854 Warringah voters, undertaken for GetUp in September, suggests Warringah is now marginal. It put Abbott ahead 54% to 46% two-party-preferred, but found his primary support was at 39.3% against an unnamed independent who attracted 13.6% of the vote. Labor had 24.5%, the Greens 12.3%, and One Nation 4.3%.

Warringah has an 11.5% margin. It's not unusual for so-called "safe" seats on similar margins to fall in change-of-government elections. If this poll is accurate, Warringah is vulnerable.

A prominent independent (Australian Idol host James Mathison) got 11% of the vote against Abbott in 2016 on a short campaign. With a longer campaign, a similar prominent independent could take about 30% of the vote. Look what happened in Wentworth when that happened.

He is Labors best asset,  keep him there I say

Your'e dead right there lefty. Tony's constant destabilisation of this pack of clowns is good to see. I think they should put him back in charge so the electorate can see once again what a fine leader they voted into power in 2013. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

The counterargument: losing Abbott to an independent would make the Coalition's election loss that much more humiliating.

I don't expect Abbott to go gently if he's defeated. He'll still be sniping when he's out of politics.

matty wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm:

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone. And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos??

Incorrect Matty, he got 51.6% of the primary vote, a swing of -9.2%. The 61% was the final 2PP vote.

This election it will almost certainly go down to preferences.

I recall during the 2000's that Tony Abbott was more confident in the way he spoke and responded to questions. When he became opposition leader, that seemed to change and he was increasingly becoming more nervous. When he became PM, he stammered more when he spoke and was nowhere near as quick in answering questions. I don't know why his confidence diminished the way it did, perhaps becoming opposition leader and eventually PM increased his anxiety. If the pressure hadn't got to him, he still may be PM today.

Joe Hockey always came across as a bumbling fool when he spoke, I don't understand why he was ever chosen as treasurer. He explained economic topics as if he'd read half of "Economics in One Lesson" and said to himself "Yep, I've got the gist of this".

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:31pm:

It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament.

Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

copper internet-----------------------> lol

minarchist wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:54pm:

I recall during the 2000's that Tony Abbott was more confident in the way he spoke and responded to questions. When he became opposition leader, that seemed to change and he was increasingly becoming more nervous. When he became PM, he stammered more when he spoke and was nowhere near as quick in answering questions. I don't know why his confidence diminished the way it did, perhaps becoming opposition leader and eventually PM increased his anxiety. If the pressure hadn't got to him, he still may be PM today. Joe Hockey always came across as a bumbling fool when he spoke, I don't understand why he was ever chosen as treasurer. He explained economic topics as if he'd read half of "Economics in One Lesson" and said to himself "Yep, I've got the gist of this".

Apparently Credlin had him on a tight leash during the 2013 campaign, but then right on the 11th hour before the election Abbott blurted out that infamous shopping list of off-the-cuff promises, including "no cuts to the ABC or SBS" in an SBS interview. That was a real WTF moment at campaign headquarters because it was totally unscripted and totally out of the blue. No doubt Abbott lived to regret that ill-thought out promise, and so its understandable that he was anxious to remain on-script thereafter.

While I guess Abbott was an extreme case, this is the travails of the modern-day PM. The worst case was that excruciating 30 second silence to Mark Riley's question about 'poo happens'. You could just see him thinking "there literally is nothing I can say that won't make this situation worse for me". But its not only Abbott. I used to lament at how wooden and uninspiring Gillard sounded - given that I knew she was capable of so much more. I suspect Abbott is a far better speaker than he allowed himself to be while he was PM.

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:41pm:

matty wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 7:16pm: Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone. And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos?? Incorrect Matty, he got 51.6% of the primary vote, a swing of -9.2%. The 61% was the final 2PP vote. This election it will almost certainly go down to preferences.

Indeed, gandalf. Apologies.

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 7:31pm: It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament. Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

No it’s not exactly next door. It’s not on the other side of Sydney but it’s a few electorates away. It takes in the lower north shore and around Mosman, Cremorne etc... as well as the Northern beaches like Dee Why, Narrabeen, Collaroy etc..., and more North-Eastern suburbs like Manly and Clontarf. Wentworth is pretty much the Eastern suburbs; nothing outside is in it (except one part of Darlinghurst which is technically inner-West) and nothing inside inside is not in it, if that makes sense.

It is socially progressive for the most part, but not that multicultural.

Very diverse electorate. Bogans and renters who try to make out that they have more than they actually do in areas like Dee Why and Harbord, then rich snobs in Mosman and Cremorne. Middle-of-the-road kind of people around Manly and Queenscliff.

I doubt that Abbott is in much trouble. Wentworth is inherently more hipster/yuppy.

I would also doubt abbott is in trouble and I'm 3000km away!

lol

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 1:55pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 7:31pm: It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament. Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on.

Wentworth and Warringah are very different although they have both been conservative strongholds almost forever.

The harbour gap makes a huge mental difference between the two.

I would like for Abbott to be in trouble but his only real justified fear would be from his own party.

matty wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 6:56pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15th, 2018 at 1:55pm: Dnarever wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 7:31pm: It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament. Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on. No it’s not exactly next door. It’s not on the other side of Sydney but it’s a few electorates away. It takes in the lower north shore and around Mosman, Cremorne etc... as well as the Northern beaches like Dee Why, Narrabeen, Collaroy etc..., and more North-Eastern suburbs like Manly and Clontarf. Wentworth is pretty much the Eastern suburbs; nothing outside is in it (except one part of Darlinghurst which is technically inner-West) and nothing inside inside is not in it, if that makes sense. It is socially progressive for the most part, but not that multicultural. Very diverse electorate. Bogans and renters who try to make out that they have more than they actually do in areas like Dee Why and Harbord, then rich snobs in Mosman and Cremorne. Middle-of-the-road kind of people around Manly and Queenscliff. I doubt that Abbott is in much trouble. Wentworth is inherently more hipster/yuppy.

I don't know where you get the "few electorates away" from. Geographically, Wentworth and Warringah are adjacent electorates. The electorates are about 1.5 kilometres apart, only separated by the mouth of Sydney Harbour.

You are correct to point out that the electorates are different, but that doesn't make Abbott safe. Far from it. Wentworth had a 17% margin and had always been held by the Liberal party and its predecessors since it was created. It fell in a by-election with a 19% swing. Warringah has an 11% margin.

Your assessment that Abbott is not in much trouble is wishful thinking. He may still hold the seat at the election but it's not a sure thing. If he takes the seat for granted like Mirabella did in Indi in 2013 he's going to get booted.

You've got to see how underperforming self-entitled Liberals and Nationals have been rolled in once-safe seats by independents and minor parties in the last five or six years, both state and Federal. If you don't believe me, I'll post the body count. The Victorian state election is in nine days. Could more independents be on the way to the Victorian Parliament?

Dnarever wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 7:08pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15th, 2018 at 1:55pm: Dnarever wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 7:31pm: It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament. Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on. Wentworth and Warringah are very different although they have both been conservative strongholds almost forever. The harbour gap makes a huge mental difference between the two. I would like for Abbott to be in trouble but his only real justified fear would be from his own party.

It all depends on how credible that Warringah poll is. His 2PP margin shrinking to 54-46 is quite plausible. It represents about a 7.5% swing. A further swing by enough to force him out over the next six months is not impossible.

Anyway, it will mostly hinge on them coming up with a credible independent candidate. Frankly, I doubt that Jane Caro can really cut it there. They need to be economically centre right, and I'm pretty sure she isn't.

Rest assured though, Abbott won't be caught napping. He's already had one massive fundraiser, and say what you will about him, he is nothing if not a political fighter. Sophie Mirabella he most certainly isn't.

My Gosh the Lefties are grabbing at moonbeams now.

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:07am:

Anyway, it will mostly hinge on them coming up with a credible independent candidate. Frankly, I doubt that Jane Caro can really cut it there. They need to be economically centre right, and I'm pretty sure she isn't. Rest assured though, Abbott won't be caught napping. He's already had one massive fundraiser, and say what you will about him, he is nothing if not a political fighter. Sophie Mirabella he most certainly isn't.

Yes, the question mark at this stage is who would be the candidates? We're assuming that an independent would be the candidate that gets elected, but it's not impossible for Labor or the Greens to take the seat. Abbott would have few friends among the other candidates, who would place him low on their preferences, and whoever finishes second would be well placed.

Warringah will be a seat to watch on election night. At this stage I'm expecting Abbott to hold it, but only after an uncomfortable evening. He'll be watching a lot of his colleagues losing their seats and his seat would be decided on preferences for the first time since 1943.

We can but live in perpetual hope......... if Warringah sacks him he'll have to live off his pension for life ... poor bustard.... what a disgraceful situation for a nation to be frog-marched into - supporting those it sacked for incompetence and even evil for life.....that's what happens when you are both the players, the referee, and the rule makers....

April_Flowers wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 3:43pm:

The_Barnacle wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 3:42pm: If the Liberal Party had any brains they would choose someone else to contest the seat Such as?

Heinrich Himmler?  Jozef Stalin?  Pol Pot? Lassie?

Bam wrote on Nov 15^th, 2018 at 9:47pm:

matty wrote on Nov 15th, 2018 at 6:56pm: polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 15th, 2018 at 1:55pm: Dnarever wrote on Nov 14th, 2018 at 7:31pm: It would have to be an inside job. The Liberal representative will win Warringah. Any Liberal representative. They would vote for a cockroach in a blue tie and regularly do. Abbott is safe as houses and a guaranteed opposition back-bencher in the next parliament. Really? I don't think you've been reading the tea leaves. Wentworth is next door and has very similar demographics - multicultural and progressive. From memory I think Warringah had the largest yes vote in the SSM vote. Even before the self-implosion of the last few months, Abbott's margin in Warringah has been declining alarmingly - 9% swing against him at the last election. One poll put his current primary vote at 39%. And as we know from Wentworth, a primary vote of anything below about 43-45% against a credible independent, then its game on. No it’s not exactly next door. It’s not on the other side of Sydney but it’s a few electorates away. It takes in the lower north shore and around Mosman, Cremorne etc... as well as the Northern beaches like Dee Why, Narrabeen, Collaroy etc..., and more North-Eastern suburbs like Manly and Clontarf. Wentworth is pretty much the Eastern suburbs; nothing outside is in it (except one part of Darlinghurst which is technically inner-West) and nothing inside inside is not in it, if that makes sense. It is socially progressive for the most part, but not that multicultural. Very diverse electorate. Bogans and renters who try to make out that they have more than they actually do in areas like Dee Why and Harbord, then rich snobs in Mosman and Cremorne. Middle-of-the-road kind of people around Manly and Queenscliff. I doubt that Abbott is in much trouble. Wentworth is inherently more hipster/yuppy. I don't know where you get the "few electorates away" from. Geographically, Wentworth and Warringah are adjacent electorates. The electorates are about 1.5 kilometres apart, only separated by the mouth of Sydney Harbour. You are correct to point out that the electorates are different, but that doesn't make Abbott safe. Far from it. Wentworth had a 17% margin and had always been held by the Liberal party and its predecessors since it was created. It fell in a by-election with a 19% swing. Warringah has an 11% margin. Your assessment that Abbott is not in much trouble is wishful thinking. He may still hold the seat at the election but it's not a sure thing. If he takes the seat for granted like Mirabella did in Indi in 2013 he's going to get booted. You've got to see how underperforming self-entitled Liberals and Nationals have been rolled in once-safe seats by independents and minor parties in the last five or six years, both state and Federal. If you don't believe me, I'll post the body count. The Victorian state election is in nine days. Could more independents be on the way to the Victorian Parliament?

No they're not actually adjacent. They are relatively close but North Sydney and Sydney are both in between them. I drove from Watsons Bay to Queenscliff the other day and it took over 45 minutes.

Yes, in terms of the demographics, there are those around there who could be inclined to vote for a socially progressive leaning independent, but only in areas like Dee Why, Harbord, Manly etc... In the nicer parts of the electorate, like Neutral Bay, Mosman, Cremorne, and then Abbott's area (i.e, where he lives) like Frenchs Forest, Ingleisde, Terrey Hills etc..., I just don't see it. Do you actually know the electorate well?

And as for taking the seat for granted? Please... He is involved in many local community associations and events. To name just one, he has been a surf lifesaver for years.

And are you seriously saying that no Labor politician takes their seat for granted?

And here is the link to show how the two electorates are not exactly adjacent.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/the-expensive-nsw-electorates-bucking-the-voting-trend-20160617-gpjlyj/

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 16^th, 2018 at 9:07am:

Anyway, it will mostly hinge on them coming up with a credible independent candidate. Frankly, I doubt that Jane Caro can really cut it there. They need to be economically centre right, and I'm pretty sure she isn't. Rest assured though, Abbott won't be caught napping. He's already had one massive fundraiser, and say what you will about him, he is nothing if not a political fighter. Sophie Mirabella he most certainly isn't.

She is far from it; she is of the far left. She actually makes Kerry's Phelps look centre-right, which is no mean feat.

Abbott has been a good local member for years. I a man not just saying that out of the fact that I like him, the facts speak for themselves.

Sophie, in fairness, as much as I like her, did probably take Indi a little too for granted and was more involved in the Canberra sphere. But can anyone name just one accomplishment of Cathy McGowan since she has been there?

matty wrote on Nov 14^th, 2018 at 7:16pm:

Funny how these cowards don’t have the guts to put their names to it. Anyway, it will come to nothing. James Mathison tried last election and Tony received 61% of the primary vote alone. And it’s pathetic how they try to equate the burqa with speedos. The burqa (and niqab) ARE very confronting. Seeing someone with no eyes or a slit with eyes poking out is scary and a security concern. What on earth is confronting about speedos??

We don't mind them on Mr Abbott, Matty, that's for sure!

Miam miam.

'This is the moment': activists warm to the task of ousting Tony Abbott

Quote:

More than 350 people attend meeting organised by GetUp in Warringah, as a rival rightwing group announces its arrival

Ha Ha the Globally Warmed Extremist Greenies with < 10% of the vote try to scale Mount Everest.

The more violent they become the more they will frighten the good burghers of Warringah to the extreme danger of the Globally Warmed Extremists Greenies who LOATH and HATE Australia and especially the white men who control it.

Abbo is best when his back is up against the wall and he will tear these glutinous drongos to shreds.