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Member Run Boards >> Environment >> The September of my Years
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Message started by Marla on Sep 27th, 2018 at 2:34am

Title: The September of my Years
Post by Marla on Sep 27th, 2018 at 2:34am
Well, it looks bad. Real bad:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/31/outlook-september-could-rank-among-the-hottest-on-record-in-washington/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.533b3b63c090

"We predict temperatures to run above normal for the fifth month in a row, averaging between 74 and 77 degrees, which is warmer than last year’s 72.5 (the 30-year average is 71). We could get very close to or even exceed 1980s all-time warmest September of 77.1 degrees."

I know it's been god damn and freakishly hot here and its only going to get worse. Much worse. Then again, I'm really excited about this - all these F A T Trump supporters will be the first ones to go as the sun boils their F A T and explodes them to pieces. Yay!

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 27th, 2018 at 9:17pm

Marla wrote on Sep 27th, 2018 at 2:34am:
We could get very close to or even exceed 1980s all-time warmest September of 77.1 degrees."



Oh Could. Or perhaps could not. ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Sep 28th, 2018 at 5:58am
excuse Lee, next he will blame the Temperature gauges... even though they r the same ones used in the 80's :D

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by Mr Hammer on Sep 28th, 2018 at 7:05am
Drop a tab and listen to The Doors', Indian Summer.

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by The_Barnacle on Sep 28th, 2018 at 11:26am

Marla wrote on Sep 27th, 2018 at 2:34am:
Well, it looks bad. Real bad:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/31/outlook-september-could-rank-among-the-hottest-on-record-in-washington/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.533b3b63c090

"We predict temperatures to run above normal for the fifth month in a row, averaging between 74 and 77 degrees, which is warmer than last year’s 72.5 (the 30-year average is 71). We could get very close to or even exceed 1980s all-time warmest September of 77.1 degrees."

I know it's been god damn and freakishly hot here and its only going to get worse. Much worse. Then again, I'm really excited about this - all these F A T Trump supporters will be the first ones to go as the sun boils their F A T and explodes them to pieces. Yay!



No that can't be right
Bobby has assured us that we are in an ice age. He's got lots of winter weather anecdotes to prove it.

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 28th, 2018 at 7:39pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 28th, 2018 at 5:58am:
excuse Lee, next he will blame the Temperature gauges... even though they r the same ones used in the 80's


Actually according to BOM they have changed from optocouplers (introduced about 1988) to PRS. (Platinum Resistance Sensors).

Did you see where the Australia Post worker was reading the graduations at the wrong end of the slide in a glass in liquid thermometer? Ooops.

Also did you see one of the reasons they closed the Latrobe St weather station in Melbourne? Because all the buildings got higher there was no wind flow. Do you know what happens to temperature when there is no wind? Commonly known as Urban Heat Island effect.

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 28th, 2018 at 9:23pm
"Since  the  introduction  of  AWS  able  to  provide  SAT  measurements,   PRS   were   used   as   the   preferred   sensor   for   AWS.   Prior   to   1990,   the   networks   earlier  automated  systems  were  mainly  the  EG&G and    Micromac.    Post-1990,    the    ALMOS    AWS    dominated  the  land-based  AWS  network. "

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/ACORN-SAT_Observation_practices_WEB.pdf

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Sep 29th, 2018 at 6:19am
poor old Lee, now he has the wrong country to prove Washington temp readings r bad  :D

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 29th, 2018 at 12:04pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 29th, 2018 at 6:19am:
poor old Lee, now he has the wrong country to prove Washington temp readings r bad  :D


They were examples petal. But if you want to be specific, post your proof that Washington recording instruments are the same as at some time in the 1980's.

"Effects of Recent Thermometer Changes in the Cooperative Station Network"

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%281991%29072%3C1718%3AEORTCI%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Dated 1991.

And at that time they don't use PRS's (also called PRT's. Change Sensor to Thermometer). So that is a later change.



Source: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021<1025:SAEEIA>2.0.CO%3B2

Now have a look at the error range of these PRT's.




Ah well; Never mind.


You do know how they "average" temperature? They add the minimum and the maximum and divide by 2. Of course these days they monitor weather every couple of minutes. So the temperature could be low for 15 hours and high for 9 hours. The mathematically correct way would be to sum the total number of readings and divide by the number of readings But that would mean a change of methodology.

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Sep 30th, 2018 at 6:42am

Marla wrote on Sep 27th, 2018 at 2:34am:
Well, it looks bad. Real bad:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/08/31/outlook-september-could-rank-among-the-hottest-on-record-in-washington/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.533b3b63c090

"We predict temperatures to run above normal for the fifth month in a row, averaging between 74 and 77 degrees, which is warmer than last year’s 72.5 (the 30-year average is 71). We could get very close to or even exceed 1980s all-time warmest September of 77.1 degrees."

I know it's been god damn and freakishly hot here and its only going to get worse. Much worse. Then again, I'm really excited about this - all these F A T Trump supporters will be the first ones to go as the sun boils their F A T and explodes them to pieces. Yay!


I guess the person living there talking about hot stinking hot it is can be ignored, because they changed the way they take temp readings  :D

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by The_Barnacle on Sep 30th, 2018 at 11:37am

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 6:42am:
I guess the person living there talking about hot stinking hot it is can be ignored, because they changed the way they take temp readings  :D


It's like when lee tries to discredit the BOM by talking about smearing. He is just trying to obfuscate and create strawman arguments. lee is a fraud who clearly knows that the garbage that he posts is dishonest, misleading and discredited, yet he continues to post it. I don't know what he is trying to prove. It's not as if the tiny readership of this forum is going to change the world.

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 30th, 2018 at 12:15pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 6:42am:
I guess the person living there talking about hot stinking hot it is can be ignored, because they changed the way they take temp readings



So you admit the post -


DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 28th, 2018 at 5:58am:
excuse Lee, next he will blame the Temperature gauges... even though they r the same ones used in the 80's



was just Bullshist. And now trying to cover your arse. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

By the way can you quantify "stinking hot" in climatological terms? ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 30th, 2018 at 12:30pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 11:37am:
It's like when lee tries to discredit the BOM by talking about smearing.



So what would you call it trying to infer temperatures for places thousands of km's from a weather station? ;D ;D ;D ;D


The_Barnacle wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 11:37am:
lee is a fraud who clearly knows that the garbage that he posts is dishonest, misleading and discredited, yet he continues to post it.



So articles of science that don't agree with you are "dishonest, misleading and discredited"

"Effects of Recent Thermometer Changes in the Cooperative Station Network"

Was co-authored by one Thomas Karl. A climate alarmist. Known for his work on SST's.

"Sensor and Electronic Biases/Errors in Air Temperature Measurements in Common Weather Station Networks*"

Is likewise a peer-reviewed paper.

From the Abstract -

"The biases of four commonly used air temperature sensors are examined and detailed. Each temperature transducer consists of three components: temperature sensing elements, signal conditioning circuitry, and corresponding analog-to-digital conversion devices or dataloggers. An error analysis of these components was performed to determine the major sources of error in common climate networks. It was found that, regardless of microclimate effects, sensor and electronic errors in air temperature measurements can be larger than those given in the sensor manufacturer's specifications. The root-sum-of-squares (RSS) error for the HMP35C sensor with CR10X datalogger was above 0.2°C, and rapidly increases for both lower (<−20°C) and higher temperatures (>30°C). Likewise, the largest errors for the maximum–minimum temperature system (MMTS) were at low temperatures (<−40°C). The temperature linearization error in the HO-1088 hygrothermometer produced the largest errors when the temperature was lower than −20°C. For the temperature sensor in the U.S. Climate Reference Networks (USCRN), the error was found to be 0.2° to 0.33°C over the range −25° to 50°C. The results presented here are applicable when data from these sensors are applied to climate studies and should be considered in determining air temperature data continuity and climate data adjustment models.

Corresponding author address: Dr. K. G. Hubbard, University of Nebraska, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, High Plains Climate Center, 236 L. W. Chase Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728"

That's an error of over 0.1C in the temperature gauge. Instrument error. You can't average out instrument error. And yet NOAA finds global warming accuracy to 2 decimal places, an order of magnitude smaller than the instrumental error.

I know you have belief, what you need is healthy scepticism.

However if you have further queries I suggest you contact the corresponding author.




Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:31pm


lee wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 12:15pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 6:42am:
I guess the person living there talking about hot stinking hot it is can be ignored, because they changed the way they take temp readings



So you admit the post -


DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 28th, 2018 at 5:58am:
excuse Lee, next he will blame the Temperature gauges... even though they r the same ones used in the 80's



was just Bullshist. And now trying to cover your arse. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

By the way can you quantify "stinking hot" in climatological terms? ;)

Wow I hope u do yoga Lee, that much stretching could do u damage :D :D

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:34pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:31pm:

lee wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 12:15pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 6:42am:
I guess the person living there talking about hot stinking hot it is can be ignored, because they changed the way they take temp readings



So you admit the post -


DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 28th, 2018 at 5:58am:
excuse Lee, next he will blame the Temperature gauges... even though they r the same ones used in the 80's



was just Bullshist. And now trying to cover your arse. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

By the way can you quantify "stinking hot" in climatological terms? ;)

Wow I hope u do yoga Lee, that much stretching could do u damage :D :D


That's why Princess Gobby uses lube.



Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:40pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:31pm:
Wow I hope u do yoga Lee, that much stretching could do u damage


Yep. You have failed again. You were the one saying that they are using the same instruments as the 1980's.

I see you claim some knowledge of aircraft. Have instruments changed since the 1980's?

Why do you think that weather instruments wouln't change?


Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Sep 30th, 2018 at 9:22pm

lee wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:40pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 5:31pm:
Wow I hope u do yoga Lee, that much stretching could do u damage


Yep. You have failed again. You were the one saying that they are using the same instruments as the 1980's.

I see you claim some knowledge of aircraft. Have instruments changed since the 1980's?

Why do you think that weather instruments wouln't change?

So your saying a thermometer from the 80’s wasn’t as accurate? ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Sep 30th, 2018 at 10:07pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Sep 30th, 2018 at 9:22pm:
So your saying a thermometer from the 80’s wasn’t as accurate?


So which type of thermometer was it?

In the 80's - liquid in glass?

+/-0.5C

PRT's  Current 0.1C

And then of course liquid in glass also suffers from parallax error on reading. ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Oct 1st, 2018 at 5:21am
ohh yess Lee todays mercury is much smarter and accurate than the mercury of the 80's  ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Oct 1st, 2018 at 11:26am

DonDeeHippy wrote on Oct 1st, 2018 at 5:21am:
ohh yess Lee todays mercury is much smarter and accurate than the mercury of the 80's  ;)


Somehow I really doubt any technical competence from you. It shows.

You do understand that the mercury is the same. The calibration standards have changed.

BTW - With Automatic weather stations they don't use mercury. They use PRT's (or PRS's if you prefer). So today's mercury is just another attempt at obfuscation.

You have heard of accuracy of test equipment? Do you think that has stayed the same over time or improved?

So if you have a thermometer with an accuracy of +/- 0.5C and a parallax error up to the same amount what do you think the error bars would be?

Remember with digital readouts there is no parallax error. ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by DonDeeHippy on Oct 1st, 2018 at 11:34am

lee wrote on Oct 1st, 2018 at 11:26am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Oct 1st, 2018 at 5:21am:
ohh yess Lee todays mercury is much smarter and accurate than the mercury of the 80's  ;)


Somehow I really doubt any technical competence from you. It shows.

You do understand that the mercury is the same. The calibration standards have changed.

BTW - With Automatic weather stations they don't use mercury. They use PRT's (or PRS's if you prefer). So today's mercury is just another attempt at obfuscation.

You have heard of accuracy of test equipment? Do you think that has stayed the same over time or improved?

So if you have a thermometer with an accuracy of +/- 0.5C and a parallax error up to the same amount what do you think the error bars would be?

Remember with digital readouts there is no parallax error. ;)

Poor Lee doesn't even know what OMG is, or he would of realized thats what I would say when I read what he wrote  :D
SO as long as the max temperature is more than 1 degree higher than a 80's reading , which takes into account the max error amount, it has to be hotter and even up to 2 degree's hotter than the old temp if the error was the other way....?
Got it thanks for the clarification Lee... we can all sleep now.... well done  ;)

Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Oct 1st, 2018 at 1:29pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Oct 1st, 2018 at 11:34am:
SO as long as the max temperature is more than 1 degree higher than a 80's reading , which takes into account the max error amount, it has to be hotter and even up to 2 degree's hotter than the old temp if the error was the other way....?



Yes. Now do you understand the piece quoted was about average temperatures, not maximums. Perhaps you can show where Washington September max is 1C warmer than the 80's. Though that wouldn't prove CO2 as the causative factor. ;)


Title: Re: The September of my Years
Post by lee on Oct 1st, 2018 at 2:03pm
"T-5. September 7, 1881 - 104 degrees"

https://washington-dc.knoji.com/10-hottest-days-in-washington-dc-history/

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