Real estate could go down 40% in price very soon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smPR0s2W-Ck


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbFvwYVfwq0

Yeah. Could or not.

Not enough houses being built. More Immigrants. Shortage of housing.

Prices have dropped 3% in the last year after rising 37% in the previous 5.

Inner city land can only get scarcer.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:08pm:

Yeah. Could or not. Not enough houses being built. More Immigrants. Shortage of housing. Prices have dropped 3% in the last year after rising 37% in the previous 5. Inner city land can only get scarcer.

But people need to have jobs that can support their high mortgages.

It is true that there will always be demand when so many
immigrants are coming here every week.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:11pm:

But people need to have jobs that can support their high mortgages.

If the housing market drops 40% it will mean Australia is in deep recession. There will be a lot of people unemployed.

So there won't be any buyers even at a 40% discount. Those employed will want to keep any available money in case they become one of the unemployed.

But the Reserve should have their hands all over the economy to prevent that.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:11pm: But people need to have jobs that can support their high mortgages. If the housing market drops 40% it will mean Australia is in deep recession. There will be a lot of people unemployed. So there won't be any buyers even at a 40% discount. Those employed will want to keep any available money in case they become one of the unemployed. But the Reserve should have their hands all over the economy to prevent that.

Let's hope the Reserve Bank can save us.
I can tell you something I've seen -

a lot of people trying to sell rubbish houses & flats
for incredibly high prices.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:08pm:

Yeah. Could or not. Not enough houses being built. More Immigrants. Shortage of housing. Prices have dropped 3% in the last year after rising 37% in the previous 5. Inner city land can only get scarcer.

Are you also of the opinion that water is wet?

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:34pm:

Are you also of the opinion that water is wet?

I am of the opinion that you are a complete dick. But the forum already holds that opinion. So it ain't new.

But tell us what you think will happen to scarce inner city land. Up or down in price?

To make it easier for you we will call Vic Park inner city.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:33pm:

I can tell you something I've seen - a lot of people trying to sell rubbish houses & flats for incredibly high prices.

Of course. People do that all the time. Sometimes for them it even pays off. Sometimes it doesn't.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:38pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:34pm: Are you also of the opinion that water is wet? I am of the opinion that you are a complete dick. But the forum already holds that opinion. So it ain't new. But tell us what you think will happen to scarce inner city land. Up or down in price? To make it easier for you we will call Vic Park inner city.

So, it is wet?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:40pm:

So, it is wet?

Oh dear. greggy doesn't know the state of water being wet or dry.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:40pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:33pm: I can tell you something I've seen - a lot of people trying to sell rubbish houses & flats for incredibly high prices. Of course. People do that all the time. Sometimes for them it even pays off. Sometimes it doesn't.

I recently saw a house that had 1 foot high weeds growing out of all the gutters,
rusty gutters & down pipes, rotten wood underneath the gutters,
and that white asbestos board under the eaves between
the gutters & the house.
Some sucker bought it for a high price.
To me, it was bulldozer material.

The former owner must have really had some champagne that day.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:42pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:40pm: So, it is wet? Oh dear. greggy doesn't know the state of water being wet or dry.

None of us do.

We need you to keep up up to date on these things.

For example, nobody here knew that inner city land can only get scarcer.

I've contacted the ABC to let them know, and I've asked them to give full credit to you for this revelation.

No need to thank me. I'm a nice guy; it's what I do.

Australian housing market - property Bubble & Banks, 2018 Insights.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY



minimumtrade
Published on Sep 3, 2018

May 2018. Observations of Australia's crazy credit fueled housing bubble from a top international investment manager with a short position in australian banks. Edit: Thank you for the helpful contributions below, it is understood this is investment manager William Strong, part of an interview with Realvision television segment. Yes he is rocking the sneans (or you may call it junners fashion) but he's correctly called the rolling over of; what was a seven-half trillion residential market, would you agree?

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:49pm:

For example, nobody here knew that inner city land can only get scarcer. I've contacted the ABC to let them know, and I've asked them to give full credit to you for this revelation.

And yet you cpildn't answer the simple question does it become dearer or cheaper? oh dear.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:48pm:

The former owner must have really had some champagne that day.

What was the land value?

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:48pm: The former owner must have really had some champagne that day. What was the land value?

I don't know but it was an odd shape with a triangular back area
which wouldn't suit a developer.

Australias top banking analyst drops a bombshell - housing bubble


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rf_7oOHOycE


minimumtrade
Published on Sep 8, 2018

Whilst not as bearish on housing prices as the UBS team, Brian Johnson of CSLA here offers some very good points and insight.
"Jingle mail" (or near enough to) will exist in Australia if poo hits the fan. see 4:30
ABC The Business - Sept 2018.

Adams/North - Australia's Debt Bomb


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hJpC3bmzZU


Walk The World
Published on Jun 26, 2018


I discuss the state of the Australian economy with economist John Adams.

Please consider a subscription via our Patreon page to help us make more great content. https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanc...

Links to his series of articles:

Ten signs we're heading for 'economic armageddon' (Feb 2018)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...

Ten myths making Australians complacent about looming 'economic armageddon' (May 2018)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...

Six pathways to Australia's 'economic armageddon' (June 2018)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...

How to prepare for economic Armageddon (June 2018)

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econo...
Category
News & Politics

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:55pm:

May 2018. Observations of Australia's crazy credit fueled housing bubble from a top international investment manager with a short position in australian banks.

yes. He likes buying distressed stocks at low valuations. So he talks stocks down.

Way to go.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:11pm:

I discuss the state of the Australian economy with economist John Adams.

Yeah. they have been talking the problem up for 7 months. Must be more resilient than they thought.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:13pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:55pm: May 2018. Observations of Australia's crazy credit fueled housing bubble from a top international investment manager with a short position in australian banks. yes. He likes buying distressed stocks at low valuations. So he talks stocks down. Way to go.

OK - he's biased.
Can you find anyone spruiking property right now?
( don't count real estate agents)

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:06pm:

I don't know but it was an odd shape with a triangular back area which wouldn't suit a developer.

And there's the nub. Not knowing.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 8:06pm: I don't know but it was an odd shape with a triangular back area which wouldn't suit a developer. And there's the nub. Not knowing.

But I can add up.
If you bulldozed that house & spent $200K building another one
then the price you'd have to sell it to make a profit
would be far above the local median price.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:21pm:

But I can add up. If you bulldozed that house & spent $200K building another one then the price you'd have to sell it to make a profit would be far above the local median price.

But is that block part of surrounding blocks the purchaser already owns? Making it a larger merged block. Developers have been known to do that for holdout homeowners.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 8:26pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 8:21pm: But I can add up. If you bulldozed that house & spent $200K building another one then the price you'd have to sell it to make a profit would be far above the local median price. But is that block part of surrounding blocks the purchaser already owns? Making it a larger merged block. Developers have been known to do that for holdout homeowners.

Maybe that's what happened?
Otherwise it wouldn't make sense.

lee wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 7:17pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:11pm: But people need to have jobs that can support their high mortgages. If the housing market drops 40% it will mean Australia is in deep recession. There will be a lot of people unemployed. So there won't be any buyers even at a 40% discount. Those employed will want to keep any available money in case they become one of the unemployed. But the Reserve should have their hands all over the economy to prevent that.

That's what happens when you put all of your money on the one horse. It is quite possible that you will lose the lot :(

Sir lastnail wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 11:11pm:

lee wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:17pm: Bobby. wrote on Sep 23rd, 2018 at 7:11pm: But people need to have jobs that can support their high mortgages. If the housing market drops 40% it will mean Australia is in deep recession. There will be a lot of people unemployed. So there won't be any buyers even at a 40% discount. Those employed will want to keep any available money in case they become one of the unemployed. But the Reserve should have their hands all over the economy to prevent that. That's what happens when you put all of your money on the one horse. It is quite possible that you will lose the lot :(

Hi Nail,
buying property right now is a very risky exercise.
I certainly won't be buying anything unless I see some real value.
All I've seen so far is as though someone has put lipstick on a pig.
In some cases, as per above - I saw houses that were bulldozer jobs.

Sir lastnail wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2018 at 11:11pm:

It is quite possible that you will lose the lot

Can you define "quite possible"? 75% chance, 50%, 10%?

Thousands of property owners across Australia could soon be faced with unavoidable multi-million-dollar bills - or even prison - if they fail to ensure buildings constructed with flammable cladding materials don’t meet new safety regulations.

And while each state and territory is approaching the life-threatening issue differently, it is in NSW where unknowing residents could be hit with ginormous bills they have no way of avoiding or face being fined - or even sent to jail.
That’s because this month, not only did the state Liberal government outlaw multiple flammable cladding types, including ACP, on new and existing buildings of two storeys or higher - requiring owners to register them online and work towards removing the panelling or sufficiently mitigating any risk - but they also moved to ban the material retrospectively.

That means residents of buildings built years ago with the cladding must now also rectify what is deemed dangerous.


LINK

Property related:


Quote:

Over 1 million hack attacks on S.A.s land title system South Australia's Planning Minister Stephan Knoll yesterday confirmed parts of the recently privatised system "was shutdown following a high number of overseas data searches" by 'guest account' search facilities. The search feature allows anyone to access information such as the amount of money a person borrowed to purchase a property, along with their personal information such as their names, allotment numbers and certificate of title details

.

LINK

PZ547 wrote on Sep 24^th, 2018 at 1:26pm:

Thousands of property owners across Australia could soon be faced with unavoidable multi-million-dollar bills - or even prison - if they fail to ensure buildings constructed with flammable cladding materials don’t meet new safety regulations. And while each state and territory is approaching the life-threatening issue differently, it is in NSW where unknowing residents could be hit with ginormous bills they have no way of avoiding or face being fined - or even sent to jail. That’s because this month, not only did the state Liberal government outlaw multiple flammable cladding types, including ACP, on new and existing buildings of two storeys or higher - requiring owners to register them online and work towards removing the panelling or sufficiently mitigating any risk - but they also moved to ban the material retrospectively. That means residents of buildings built years ago with the cladding must now also rectify what is deemed dangerous. LINK

The trouble is that no one wants to pay:

The owners blame the builders.
The builders blame the Council inspectors.
The Council blames the Federal Govt. for allowing it to be imported.

PZ547 wrote on Sep 24^th, 2018 at 1:44pm:

Property related: Quote: Over 1 million hack attacks on S.A.s land title system South Australia's Planning Minister Stephan Knoll yesterday confirmed parts of the recently privatised system "was shutdown following a high number of overseas data searches" by 'guest account' search facilities. The search feature allows anyone to access information such as the amount of money a person borrowed to purchase a property, along with their personal information such as their names, allotment numbers and certificate of title details . LINK

It's a privacy scandal.

Bobby. wrote on Sep 24^th, 2018 at 3:41pm:

It's a privacy scandal.

It can also be used a a scam to sell properties not owned by you.

All the details are on line.

lee wrote on Sep 24^th, 2018 at 3:55pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 24th, 2018 at 3:41pm: It's a privacy scandal. It can also be used a a scam to sell properties not owned by you. All the details are on line.

It makes me wonder how safe our medical records will be?

Bobby. wrote on Sep 24^th, 2018 at 6:08pm:

It makes me wonder how safe our medical records will be?

Without encryption not safe. However if someone wants my over 65's info they are welcome to it. They can even have the attendant ailments. ;)

lee wrote on Sep 24^th, 2018 at 6:12pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 24th, 2018 at 6:08pm: It makes me wonder how safe our medical records will be? Without encryption not safe. However if someone wants my over 65's info they are welcome to it. They can even have the attendant ailments. ;)

I should be able to find out if there was unlawful access
to my records by going online and checking.
If so, I intend to sue the Govt. for mega bucks.
It should be easy money.