Liberals are 'unlikely to run' in Batman by-election: Turnbull
SBS News Febuary 5 2018

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull doesn't expect the Liberals will run in the Batman by-election, a move likely to make it easier for the Greens to win the seat.   :)


Labor looks set for a tougher fight in the by-election in the Melbourne seat of Batman after Malcolm Turnbull indicated the Liberals were unlikely to put up a candidate.

The by-election, expected to be in March, was triggered by the resignation of Labor MP David Feeney after he failed to find paperwork showing he had renounced UK citizenship before entering parliament, disqualifying him under the constitution.

Former ACTU president Ged Kearney is Labor's new candidate for the inner-city electorate.



Greens candidate Alex Bhathal has run in each election for the seat since 2001, barring 2007.

She won the primary vote at the last federal election but Mr Feeney clung on courtesy of Liberal preferences, taking Batman with a margin of one per cent.

Mr Turnbull said the final decision on running a candidate would be up to the Victorian branch of the Liberal Party.

"But I don't expect we will be running a candidate in the Batman by-election," the prime minister told ABC TV on Sunday.

Asked why, Mr Turnbull said it was a political decision and "parties have to assess priorities and the limited resources".

ABC election analyst Antony Green said if the Liberals didn't run a candidate, the Greens were more likely to win the poll - which would give the minor party its second lower house seat and dent Opposition Leader Bill Shorten's numbers.   :)

Senior Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese - who has experience fighting off Greens in an inner-city electorate - believes the party can retain the seat.

"We need to put our case to the people of Batman (that) the election of a Labor candidate will be an important step in Labor forming government either later this year or early next year," he told Sky News.

Why would they ?

Makes sense to me parties often don't run in by-elections they have no hope in.

All I can say they should make the winner wear a mask and cape :-)

Quote:

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull doesn't expect the Liberals will run in the Batman by-election, a move likely to make it easier for the Greens to win the seat.

This is why they won't run. Labor usually does worse against the Greens whenever the Liberals don't field a candidate. This is how the Greens won Cunningham in 2002.

Bam wrote on Feb 6^th, 2018 at 2:27pm:

Quote: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull doesn't expect the Liberals will run in the Batman by-election, a move likely to make it easier for the Greens to win the seat. This is why they won't run. Labor usually does worse against the Greens whenever the Liberals don't field a candidate. This is how the Greens won Cunningham in 2002.

I doubt that that is why they're not running. It is correct that the Greens do better when the Libs don't run (though not really sure why) but I would just bet that they don't care who wins it. A vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens and vice versa.

What will be really interesting though is if Labor also has to go to two different by-elections; one here and one in Longman. Will Shirten change his rhetoric based on the audience? Do we get a different narrative in inner-city Melbourne to the one in average swing-voting Brisbane suburbia?

Who are you and what have you done with the real Matty.

crocodile wrote on Feb 6^th, 2018 at 8:14am:

Why would they ?

Michael Kroger was quoted as saying the libs shouldn't be responsible for allowing "extremists" to win - obviously referring to the Greens. Labor would have a much better chance if they did run.

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2018 at 3:01pm:

Bam wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 2:27pm: Quote: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull doesn't expect the Liberals will run in the Batman by-election, a move likely to make it easier for the Greens to win the seat. This is why they won't run. Labor usually does worse against the Greens whenever the Liberals don't field a candidate. This is how the Greens won Cunningham in 2002. I doubt that that is why they're not running. It is correct that the Greens do better when the Libs don't run (though not really sure why) but I would just bet that they don't care who wins it. A vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens and vice versa.

It really isn't that surprising. Some Liberals voters would vote Liberal, with Labor last. Some Labor voters do the same.

Some voters - especially younger professionals - may switch directly from the Liberals to the Greens. This is how the Greens won the state seat of Prahran from the Liberals, and why O'Dwyer may be in trouble in Higgins (which includes most of the state seat of Prahran). If there is no Liberal candidate, such a Liberal-Greens swinging voter may end up voting for the Greens.

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2018 at 3:01pm:

Bam wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 2:27pm: Quote: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull doesn't expect the Liberals will run in the Batman by-election, a move likely to make it easier for the Greens to win the seat. This is why they won't run. Labor usually does worse against the Greens whenever the Liberals don't field a candidate. This is how the Greens won Cunningham in 2002. I doubt that that is why they're not running. It is correct that the Greens do better when the Libs don't run (though not really sure why) but I would just bet that they don't care who wins it. A vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens and vice versa. What will be really interesting though is if Labor also has to go to two different by-elections; one here and one in Longman. Will Shirten change his rhetoric based on the audience? Do we get a different narrative in inner-city Melbourne to the one in average swing-voting Brisbane suburbia?

I get where you are coming from I vote in the lower house by starting with the greens last then ALP.
If it was a choice between ALP and greens it would be ALP.
Obviously many must really hate the ALP.

I have always lived in rusted on LNP seats.

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2018 at 3:01pm:

Bam wrote on Feb 6th, 2018 at 2:27pm: Quote: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull doesn't expect the Liberals will run in the Batman by-election, a move likely to make it easier for the Greens to win the seat. This is why they won't run. Labor usually does worse against the Greens whenever the Liberals don't field a candidate. This is how the Greens won Cunningham in 2002. I doubt that that is why they're not running. It is correct that the Greens do better when the Libs don't run (though not really sure why) but I would just bet that they don't care who wins it. A vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens and vice versa. What will be really interesting though is if Labor also has to go to two different by-elections; one here and one in Longman. Will Shirten change his rhetoric based on the audience? Do we get a different narrative in inner-city Melbourne to the one in average swing-voting Brisbane suburbia?

It is correct that the Greens do better when the Libs don't run (though not really sure why)


Because the Libs almost always preference Labor in front of the greens and if there is no Liberal candidate many Liberal supporters will vote for anyone other than Labor, most Likely some independent who has a deal in place with the greens.

Remember we're talking about Victoria here, where 51% couldn't make up their minds on the non-issue of including Aboriginals who fought with settlers in ANZAC Day.....

https://media0.giphy.com/media/3o85xn0xBlCzQZvhYs/giphy.gif

Amazing - the Libs and the Labs give each other preferences so as to prevent any revolution... I hold no brief for the Greens in any way - just as bad if you ask me and silly at times - but you can smell the fear of The Government Of Two Parties (Tag Team) when they stoop to this kind of thing.

Ban preferences?

Grappler Racist Filth wrote on Feb 7^th, 2018 at 9:42am:

Remember we're talking about Victoria here, where 51% couldn't make up their minds on the non-issue of including Aboriginals who fought with settlers in ANZAC Day..... Amazing - the Libs and the Labs give each other preferences so as to prevent any revolution... I hold no brief for the Greens in any way - just as bad if you ask me and silly at times - but you can smell the fear of The Government Of Two Parties (Tag Team) when they stoop to this kind of thing. Ban preferences?

FYI you can fill out the ballot papers how you like, I never accept the pieces of rubbish these party fan people try to give you when you vote.

RightSaidFred wrote on Feb 7^th, 2018 at 10:40am:

Grappler Racist Filth wrote on Feb 7th, 2018 at 9:42am: Remember we're talking about Victoria here, where 51% couldn't make up their minds on the non-issue of including Aboriginals who fought with settlers in ANZAC Day..... Amazing - the Libs and the Labs give each other preferences so as to prevent any revolution... I hold no brief for the Greens in any way - just as bad if you ask me and silly at times - but you can smell the fear of The Government Of Two Parties (Tag Team) when they stoop to this kind of thing. Ban preferences? FYI you can fill out the ballot papers how you like, I never accept the pieces of rubbish these party fan people try to give you when you vote.

We need reforms to put democracy back into the hands of the people. Ban HTV cards. Abolish above-the-line voting in the Senate. Introduce Robson rotation for all ballot papers. As much as possible, make candidates work for your vote.

Bam wrote on Feb 7^th, 2018 at 11:47am:

RightSaidFred wrote on Feb 7th, 2018 at 10:40am: Grappler Racist Filth wrote on Feb 7th, 2018 at 9:42am: Remember we're talking about Victoria here, where 51% couldn't make up their minds on the non-issue of including Aboriginals who fought with settlers in ANZAC Day..... Amazing - the Libs and the Labs give each other preferences so as to prevent any revolution... I hold no brief for the Greens in any way - just as bad if you ask me and silly at times - but you can smell the fear of The Government Of Two Parties (Tag Team) when they stoop to this kind of thing. Ban preferences? FYI you can fill out the ballot papers how you like, I never accept the pieces of rubbish these party fan people try to give you when you vote. We need reforms to put democracy back into the hands of the people. Ban HTV cards. Abolish above-the-line voting in the Senate. Introduce Robson rotation for all ballot papers. As much as possible, make candidates work for your vote.

Unfortunately most people barely think about politics especially analysing stuff like MP's back grounds and policy details, most just react to how they feel about a leader or the performance while in government. What you are suggesting would be beyond most as they mostly don't care.