Study on how soon we will hit 1.5°C temperature increase


Quote:

Abstract Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study, crossing the first threshold under the Paris climate agreement and placing the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change.

Remember the three main icesheets are on the verge of collapse, well almost so. More warming would not be good. Remember, the Eemian period 125,000 years ago was maybe a bit hotter than today—and had sea levels nine metres higher than today.


Quote:

The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO (it’s also sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It’s an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns all over the world. During cool, or “negative,” phases, tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean tend to be colder, and the global mean temperature is lower. The system is similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the major difference being that phases of the IPO tend to last much longer — sometimes a decade or more. The phenomenon is believed to be a natural form of climate variability unrelated to human-caused climate change, although it does have the potential to influence the progression of global warming.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/full

So, what phase is the IPO/PDO in and is it likely to move to another phase?


Quote:

For most of the 2000s, the IPO has been in a negative phase, and scientists think its cooling effect has helped to slightly offset the effect of climate change. . .

Quote:

Many scientists believe that the planet is now transitioning back into a positive, or warm, phase, which could amplify, rather than offset, human-caused climate warming. This means we could reach milestone temperature thresholds faster than we would if the IPO had remained in its negative phase.  That’s the conclusion of the new study, written by Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne. Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario, they suggest that the Earth could hit the 1.5-degree temperature threshold as early as 2025, while the continuation of the negative phase probably would delay this event until after 2030.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/09/earth-could-break-through-a-major-climate-threshold-in-the-next-15-years-scientists-warn/?tid=hybrid_collaborative_1_na&utm_term=.05cd8e37699f

With those three huge icesheets already on the verge of collapse hitting 1.5°C increase is not what we want to do.

So, bugger off any new coal fired generators, time to implement an emissions intensity scheme or a fullblown, traded cap and trade ETS.

How can we protect against sea level rises? Better start implementing that.

Phase out coal ASAP and replace with renewables plus nuclear as a backup. Plenty of aging coal fired generators that will be shut down soon anyway.

What coastline will go regardless of what we build as sea defences? What will that do to acquifers? LOTS of policy issues.

Far cough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You far cough!

This is a problem requiring a public policy response.

A second huge glacier in Greenland is about to join the Jacobshavn glacier in sending huge volumes of ice into the north Atlantic, causing sea level rise. The West and East Antarctic ice sheets are also showing signs of destabilisation.

So what are our so–called leaders going to do about it?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:25pm:

Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius

Yep. "Could" being the operative word.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:25pm:

Remember the three main icesheets

More ice to cool the planet.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:25pm:

The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,

And completely ignores the North Atlantic Oscillation. Amazing, another study that only looks at one metric and makes prognostications.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:25pm:

Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario,

Another use of the crap RCP8.5 which is NOT a business-as-usual scenario. Even your beloved SKS say RCP8.5 is unlikely.

We have just heard from Cowards–R–Us.

So....and yet again.....we have the same  ol'  Lee/Jovial Monk show.

Take it to Environment!

The reason why early Hominid species were able to migrate out of the Rift Valley (the Giant Vagina gash) and across the Middle-East into Asia and Europe to become Denisovians and Neanderthals - was because the world was a lot warmer than it is today and the now desert regions were lush forests and with many waterways due to the increase of rains.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:05pm:

We have just heard from Cowards–R–Us.

Great debunking. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Aussie wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:07pm:

So....and yet again.....we have the same  ol'  Lee/Jovial Monk show. Take it to Environment!

I can’t help it if Lees HAS to obfuscate anything I post. But this is a serious matter and requires a public policy response so belongs here.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:48pm:

Aussie wrote on Aug 29th, 2017 at 6:07pm: So....and yet again.....we have the same  ol'  Lee/Jovial Monk show. Take it to Environment! I can’t help it if Lees HAS to obfuscate anything I post. But this is a serious matter and requires a public policy response so belongs here.

Has SFA to do with Politics and all to do with Environment.

The environment is about to get nasty: we need to prepare.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 7:01pm:

The environment is about to get nasty: we need to prepare.

You're right - it's going to get a lot colder.

Hotter.

All 3 major ice sheets are destabilising, the thawing tundra is sending more CO2 into the atmosphere and the sun is about to get more active.

What we are facing is major sea level rises and severe weather events. Keep your nonsense to the stupid ice age thread please.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 9:10pm:

All 3 major ice sheets are destabilising, the thawing tundra

Which according to physics will COOL the planet. ;)

Will absorb some of the extra heat as they melt but more warmth will arrive. We are looking at 9m sea level rise.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 9:32pm:

Will absorb some of the extra heat as they melt but more warmth will arrive. We are looking at 9m sea level rise.

Oh, Is that the deep ocean that Trenberth says the heat is hiding in. Waiting to go BOO and scare us? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Sometimes you sound halfway intelligent, but mostly you sound like a retarded five year old.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 10:18pm:

Sometimes you sound halfway intelligent, but mostly you sound like a retarded five year old.

Coming from a retarded 3 year old that's impressive. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:25pm:

Study on how soon we will hit 1.5°C temperature increase Quote: Abstract Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study, crossing the first threshold under the Paris climate agreement and placing the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change. Remember the three main icesheets are on the verge of collapse, well almost so. More warming would not be good. Remember, the Eemian period 125,000 years ago was maybe a bit hotter than today—and had sea levels nine metres higher than today. [quote]The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO (it’s also sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It’s an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns all over the world. During cool, or “negative,” phases, tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean tend to be colder, and the global mean temperature is lower. The system is similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the major difference being that phases of the IPO tend to last much longer — sometimes a decade or more. The phenomenon is believed to be a natural form of climate variability unrelated to human-caused climate change, although it does have the potential to influence the progression of global warming.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/full

So, what phase is the IPO/PDO in and is it likely to move to another phase?


Quote:

For most of the 2000s, the IPO has been in a negative phase, and scientists think its cooling effect has helped to slightly offset the effect of climate change. . .

Quote:

Many scientists believe that the planet is now transitioning back into a positive, or warm, phase, which could amplify, rather than offset, human-caused climate warming. This means we could reach milestone temperature thresholds faster than we would if the IPO had remained in its negative phase.  That’s the conclusion of the new study, written by Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne. Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario, they suggest that the Earth could hit the 1.5-degree temperature threshold as early as 2025, while the continuation of the negative phase probably would delay this event until after 2030.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/09/earth-could-break-through-a-major-climate-threshold-in-the-next-15-years-scientists-warn/?tid=hybrid_collaborative_1_na&utm_term=.05cd8e37699f

With those three huge icesheets already on the verge of collapse hitting 1.5°C increase is not what we want to do.

So, bugger off any new coal fired generators, time to implement an emissions intensity scheme or a fullblown, traded cap and trade ETS.

How can we protect against sea level rises? Better start implementing that.

Phase out coal ASAP and replace with renewables plus nuclear as a backup. Plenty of aging coal fired generators that will be shut down soon anyway.

What coastline will go regardless of what we build as sea defences? What will that do to acquifers? LOTS of policy issues.[/quote]

The topic of this thread.

Will the extra warming to 1.5°C see thresholds being passed? Irrevocable melting of icesheets say?

More climatically confused Globally Warmed Greeny bulldust.

No Global Warming for 19 years now - don't the Greenies look real silly.

You don't have to be dumb to be a Greeny - but it sure helps!!!

A moronic cretin posted. . .shyte.

2016 hottest recorded year, 2017 nearly as warm.

Have a look at this video. Prof Rignot has 25 years experience in studying the main icefields and how they are destabilising:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVEM1cgMc1s

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 30^th, 2017 at 12:31pm:

2016 hottest recorded year, 2017 nearly as warm.

But neither nearly as warm as 1997's 62.45ºF. ;D ;D ;D ;D

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:25pm:

Study on how soon we will hit 1.5°C temperature increase Quote: Abstract Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study, crossing the first threshold under the Paris climate agreement and placing the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change. Remember the three main icesheets are on the verge of collapse, well almost so. More warming would not be good. Remember, the Eemian period 125,000 years ago was maybe a bit hotter than today—and had sea levels nine metres higher than today. [quote]The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO (it’s also sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It’s an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns all over the world. During cool, or “negative,” phases, tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean tend to be colder, and the global mean temperature is lower. The system is similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the major difference being that phases of the IPO tend to last much longer — sometimes a decade or more. The phenomenon is believed to be a natural form of climate variability unrelated to human-caused climate change, although it does have the potential to influence the progression of global warming.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/full

So, what phase is the IPO/PDO in and is it likely to move to another phase?


Quote:

For most of the 2000s, the IPO has been in a negative phase, and scientists think its cooling effect has helped to slightly offset the effect of climate change. . .

Quote:

Many scientists believe that the planet is now transitioning back into a positive, or warm, phase, which could amplify, rather than offset, human-caused climate warming. This means we could reach milestone temperature thresholds faster than we would if the IPO had remained in its negative phase.  That’s the conclusion of the new study, written by Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne. Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario, they suggest that the Earth could hit the 1.5-degree temperature threshold as early as 2025, while the continuation of the negative phase probably would delay this event until after 2030.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/09/earth-could-break-through-a-major-climate-threshold-in-the-next-15-years-scientists-warn/?tid=hybrid_collaborative_1_na&utm_term=.05cd8e37699f

With those three huge icesheets already on the verge of collapse hitting 1.5°C increase is not what we want to do.

So, bugger off any new coal fired generators, time to implement an emissions intensity scheme or a fullblown, traded cap and trade ETS.

How can we protect against sea level rises? Better start implementing that.

Phase out coal ASAP and replace with renewables plus nuclear as a backup. Plenty of aging coal fired generators that will be shut down soon anyway.

What coastline will go regardless of what we build as sea defences? What will that do to acquifers? LOTS of policy issues.[/quote]
Dr someone blah blah blah was on the internet ...the AUSRA guy... in 2007 or thereabouts , acknowledging that the 440ppm level for co2 was going to be breached no matter what happened. If that equals 1.5C I don't know or give a shite but that is what he said aeons ago and it is common knowledge!


Dr someone blah blah blah was on the internet ...the AUSRA guy... in 2007 or thereabouts , acknowledging that the 440ppm level for co2 was going to be breached no matter what happened. If that equals 1.5C I don't know or give a shite but that is what he said aeons ago and it is common knowledge!

Dr someone blah blah blah was on the internet ...the AUSRA guy... in 2007 or thereabouts , acknowledging that the 440ppm level for co2 was going to be breached no matter what happened. If that equals 1.5C I don't know or give a shite but that is what he said aeons ago and it is common knowledge!


Dr someone blah blah blah was on the internet ...the AUSRA guy... in 2007 or thereabouts , acknowledging that the 440ppm level for co2 was going to be breached no matter what happened. If that equals 1.5C I don't know or give a shite but that is what he said aeons ago and it is common knowledge!

lee wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 9:48pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29th, 2017 at 9:32pm: Will absorb some of the extra heat as they melt but more warmth will arrive. We are looking at 9m sea level rise. Oh, Is that the deep ocean that Trenberth says the heat is hiding in. Waiting to go BOO and scare us? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Lee hates his children: probably lives in skeletors electorate of crack smokin' tryhards!