The chances of warming accelerating sharply are good.

Deniers frequently crap on with “The Medieval Warm Period” was warmer! Maybe, tho not likely. But say the MWP was global (far from sure) and due to some cause.

Now, AGW (and it is anthropogenic, see the AGW science threads) has raised temperatures by 1.2°C since 1850. Let us say non–anthropogenic forcings caused the MWP.

So, fairly suddenly the globe has warmed by 2.2°C.

1.2°C was enough to start the major ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctic destabilising and sliding into the sea. Add another 1°C warming and those sheets will disappear quickly, creating a rise in sea levels of 9 metres. Umm.

Now, what could force more rapid temperature increases?

The sun will enter a more active state sooner or later, probably by 2040 it will be adding warmth to AGW.

The increase in albedo as more land and sea ice melts. The melting is happening now and the albedo change is why warming is happening 3x faster at the poles than in the rest of the planet.

Cessation of significant vulcanism for a period of decades meaning a decrease in the aerosols in the upper atmosphere.

Orbital change seeing the NH get more sunshine.

.

::) ::) ::) ::)
Alarmist....

Asking a question is being alarmist? Only in what passes for a brain with roach. roach by name, roach by intellect I guess.

Because the sun will return to a more active state and will do that within a decade or two.

You are an alarmist, no use trying to deny it.

Grendel wrote on Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:47pm:

::) ::) ::) ::) Alarmist....

http://www.know-bull.com/images/tsif.jpg

Yep nailed him there Nef.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 25^th, 2017 at 4:50pm:

Asking a question is being alarmist?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 25^th, 2017 at 2:19pm:

The chances of warming accelerating sharply are good. Deniers frequently crap on with “The Medieval Warm Period” was warmer! Maybe, tho not likely. But say the MWP was global (far from sure) and due to some cause. Now, AGW (and it is anthropogenic, see the AGW science threads) has raised temperatures by 1.2°C since 1850. Let us say non–anthropogenic forcings caused the MWP. So, fairly suddenly the globe has warmed by 2.2°C.

They are statements not questions. ;)

chances of warming—not too imperious

tho not likely—ditto

Let us say—ditto


But why not actually discuss the possibility a forcing apart from AGW starts happening? The sun becoming more active will happen sooner or later you know.

Considering the (possible) appearance of another climate forcing is interesting.

I predict that within 5 years geo-engineering in the form of aerosols pumped into the upper atmosphere where the aerosols reflect some sunlight away from the planet, cooling it, will be done by many major nations. This will come after major floods on the east coast of the US, Bangladesh and, maybe, Holland.

So they do this—and the sun brightens, undoing the effect of the aerosols! {Oops!}

Then the aerosols, sulphuric acid, comes back to the surface as acid rain! {Double Oops!}

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/845901/climate-change-natural-global-warming-evidence-jennifer-marohasy

At last the truth is out...........scientists agree, so called Global Warming is totally natural.....

Climate Change = Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter..........

Fuzzball wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 11:10am:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/845901/climate-change-natural-global-warming-evidence-jennifer-marohasy At last the truth is out...........scientists agree, so called Global Warming is totally natural..... Climate Change = Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter..........

That is also why the current increase in atmospheric CO2 reflects the natural emissions of CO2 from natural sinks due to the current warming rather than mans emissions of CO2 which are so small they hardly register.


Quote:

Compared to natural CO2 emissions mans emissions of CO2 are just too small to register. Notice the sharp rise in fossil fuel CO2 emissions after 2000. After 2000 fossil fuel emissions were 3 times the amount of fossil fuel emissions in the prior decade to 2000, that is 3 times as much fossil fuel emission went into our atmosphere after 2000 than the decade before 2000. But the average yearly increase after 2000 just like the decade prior to 2000, average increase in CO2 remains more or less steady at 2.1ppm per year. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions at 2.3% of the total CO2 natural emissions are insignificant and get lost in the noise. That's why the average yearly increase of CO2 has remained steady at 2.1ppm per year even though fossil fuel emissions have shot through the roof. Yes fossil fuels emissions contribute but the contribution is small at 2.3% of the total amount of natural CO2 that is emitted. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGZqWMEpyUM

http://i63.tinypic.com/24ez5zd.jpg

Man has boosted atmospheric CO2 by 46% since 1850 Ajax.

Instead of 280ppm it is now 410ppm.

Volcanoes add hardly any CO2—they cool the planet by spewing aerosols into the upper atmosphere.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 1:02pm:

Man has boosted atmospheric CO2 by 46% since 1850 Ajax.

And you posted temperatures went up linearly, The effect of CO2 is logarithmic. Time for a new analysis. ;)

Glad you admit the greenhouse effect of CO2, Lees.

But the subject of this thread is: will new forcings appear that add to the warming from AGW?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:27pm:

Glad you admit the greenhouse effect of CO2, Lees.

Theoretically Yes. But by how much? 1 Kelvin in 288K ain't much.

1.2°C is a lot.

Look at the Greenland, West and East Antarctic ice sheets destabilising. Look at the increase in severe weather events, look at the rise in sea levels, etc. The man on the land is also facing increased pressure to make a living from AGW.

So—1.2°C increase is a LOT! And temperature increases are accelerating, as are sea levels, and before all that long the sun will become more active and add to the warming.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:38pm:

1.2°C is a lot.

Even in C it is not a lot. 1C in 58.69c, about 1.8%. ;)
Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:38pm:

Look at the Greenland, West and East Antarctic ice sheets destabilising

And it has never done this in the past?


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:38pm:

Look at the increase in severe weather events,

Hurricanes in USA? Nope. What extreme weather events are increasing?


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:38pm:

look at the rise in sea levels

Yep. Been rising according to the boffins for some time. Tide gauge doesn't seem to support it.


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:38pm:

The man on the land is also facing increased pressure to make a living from AGW.

Ah, Anecdotal evidence is now allowable. ;)


Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 2:38pm:

And temperature increases are accelerating, as are sea levels

Can you show graphs of this acceleration? ;)

The subject of this thread is: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?

We know we have 1.2°C warming already and this is doing harm as I listed.

What will happen if, say, the sun enters its active state? Will add to the warming from AGW.

There are other forcings, albedo change for example.

What will happen if we get another .5°C warming quickly from these other forcings?

Any comments on this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfRGvcEh2Yg


US Land Temps Down, Arctic Sea Ice & Greenland Melt Update: August (442)


US land temperature stations over the last 120 years show a down trend in Aug 01-Aug 15 maximum temperatures, also Arctic sea ice melt season is behaving strangely, showing signs of the end to the melt season already, as well Greenland has turned and the season for melting has come to an abrupt end. Something just shifted.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 3:38pm:

The subject of this thread is: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? We know we have 1.2°C warming already and this is doing harm as I listed. What will happen if, say, the sun enters its active state? Will add to the warming from AGW. There are other forcings, albedo change for example. What will happen if we get another .5°C warming quickly from these other forcings? Any comments on this?

No Monk.
This is what is happening at your place.

http://drhurd.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/the-sky-is-falling-2-chicken-little.jpg

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 26^th, 2017 at 3:38pm:

The subject of this thread is: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly? We know we have 1.2°C warming already and this is doing harm as I listed. What will happen if, say, the sun enters its active state? Will add to the warming from AGW. There are other forcings, albedo change for example. What will happen if we get another .5°C warming quickly from these other forcings? Any comments on this?

I made the title Global Warming, not AGW.

The globe has warmed 1.2°C since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Let us ignore the cause of that for the moment.

What if the sun moves from its present quiescent stage to its active, warmer state? It does have a decades–long cycle (as well as the 11 year cycle) and it cannot be long before it becomes more active and starts sending more radiation our way. Imagine the warming of the 1940s added to the 1.2°C warming.

Coincidentally say the volcanoes become inert for a decade or so—less aerosols in the upper atmosphere, more of whatever sunlight sent our way gets through to the surface. The major icesheets suffer the collapse we can see beginning, meaning less bright ice, more dark sea, soil & rocks absorbing the suns heat instead of reflecting it back into space.


What would happen to global temperatures then?

A little exercise of imagination.

Any comments?

Good grief
1/ we all know what the Greenhouse effect is.
2/ the globe has cooled and warmed all on its own since day dot.

There....
Discussion ended.

roach just failed my “little exercise of imagination.”

anyone else?

BTW, the globe has indeed warmed and the icesheets melted before.

If you actually listen to the scientist with 25 years experience in studying the ice sheets it was a bit warmer in the Eemian period than now, maybe about equal to now. If so, with continuing warming and a likely boost from the sun increasing its radiation we will equal or exceed Eemian period temperatures.

In the Eemian period seas were nine metres higher than now.

That means Greenland, West Antarctic and East Antarctica all contributing, with expansion from warming, to 9m sea level increase.

Think about that!

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 12:54pm:

roach just failed my “little exercise of imagination.” anyone else?

Nah. I'll let you alone with your "imaginings". ;D ;D ;D ;D

Not even going to try?

We like facts and truth Monk....  not things YOU imagine might happen.  The FAILURE is all yours... :D

No roach, you and Lees deny truth and facts.

Besides, blessed little facts or sense in any of your posts.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 6:30pm:

No roach, you and Lees deny truth and facts. Besides, blessed little facts or sense in any of your posts.

You mean like this gem from a paper you quoted? -

"It is another fact that the carbon dioxide concentration has increased by 30 percent since industrialization began in the mid-18th century."

https://phys.org/news/2017-08-sun-current-global-temperature.html#jCp

Published 24Aug 2017

280ppm + 30% is 364ppm ;)

Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C.

What if they get hotter, quickly?

—the sun sending more radiation our way

—albedo change at the poles accelerating

—volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere disappear

What will happen?

Massive failure of icesheets?

Massive failure of agriculture?

The Eastern States are so cold.
there will be frosts in Melbourne tonight.
No sign of spring yet except a few trees have blossomed.

As for Canberra:

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/canberra-experiences-freezing-day-snow-spotted-falling-across-city/526758



Canberra experiences freezing day, snow spotted falling across city
Jordan Hayne, Sunday August 27, 2017 - 15:18 EST
ABC image
The snow was a welcome surprise for many Canberrans. - ABC

Australia may be just days from the first month of spring, but Canberra has experienced a freezing Sunday with snow falling across the capital.



People across Canberra and its surrounds saw light flurries of snow — forming on the ground in some cases.

The Bureau of Meteorology recorded a maximum temperature of 10 degrees Celsius at 9:30am on Sunday.

By 2:00pm it had plummeted to 2.5C, with an apparent temperature of -3.9C.

While in most cases the snow did not settle on the ground, patches were visible in elevated spots near the city like Black Mountain and Mount Ainslie.

Flurries in the air were reported in Gungahlin, Belconnen, parts of Canberra's south, and the surrounding region including Carwoola and Captains Flat.

Henry, 8, and Florence, 5, were thrilled to be taken up Black Mountain by their parents.

"Snow is quite healthy," Henry said while trying to catch flakes on his tongue.

"It's just water that's frozen that's falling down from the sky."



When asked why he thought it was snowing in Canberra, Henry replied "probably because it's really cold".

The BOM agreed, predicting more snow could fall across Sunday.


- ABC

© ABC 2017

Go away, Booby, the adults are talking.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 8:06pm:

Go away, Booby, the adults are talking.

You obviously don't mean yourself then. ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 7:55pm:

Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere decrease to near zero What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture?

Can we stay on topic please?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-_Tf2Oaox4

Global Cooling Rundown Week of Aug 08-Aug 16, 2017 | Mini Ice Age & Grand Solar Minimum.

Go AWAY Booby! You got your own nonsense thread FFS!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5bgYUDT2SE


"Global Cooling" the movie - Documentary on the Grand Solar Minimum. A new mini ice-age has begun.



Published on Jul 19, 2017

"Global Cooling" the movie is a documentary on the ongoing descent into the Grand Solar Minimum and it's effects on the planet. Special excerpts of John Casey's talk on his book "Cold Sun". If you haven't figured it out yet "Global Warming" caused by man is a hoax perpetuated by falsified data and corrupt governments to achieve population reduction and dominance. What we all need to do is come together as a community and start preparing for the coming food shortages by growing food. Together we can make it through this climatic catastrophe unfolding before our very eyes.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 7:55pm:

Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture?

Can we stay on topic please.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 8:33pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27th, 2017 at 7:55pm: Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture? Can we stay on topic please.

Jovial - watch the above doco.
We don't have to worry about global warming -
it's more likely to cool.

No, we are not, Booby you fricking imbecile!

AGW is boosting temperatures, and in 20 or so years the sun will get more active and bump global temperatures up another 0.5 to 1°C.

That will see the main ice sheets collapse into the sea, raising sea levels even more!

The Eemian period, 120,000 years ago was at about our present temperature—and had sea levels nine metres above todays level!

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 7:55pm:

Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere decrease to near zero What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture?

Can we stay on topic please?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 9:11pm:

No, we are not, Booby you fricking imbecile! AGW is boosting temperatures, and in 20 or so years the sun will get more active and bump global temperatures up another -5–1°C. That will see the main ice sheets collapse into the sea, raising sea levels even more! The Eemian period, 120,000 years ago was at about our present temperature—and had sea levels nine metres above todays level!

No way - the world be frozen solid.
I told you the ice sheet will go all the way from the North pole
to the Mediterranean sea.
Europe will be solid ice.
The ice will reach all the way to Florida in the USA.
Tasmania will be considered a frozen part of Antarctica.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 9:15pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27th, 2017 at 7:55pm: Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere decrease to near zero What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture? Can we stay on topic please?

PISS OFF, BOOBY YOU CRETIN!

You have a whole thread for your rubbish.

"Re: Global Warming—will it get worse, quickly?"

Define quickly.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 9:28pm:

PISS OFF, BOOBY YOU CRETIN! You have a whole thread for your rubbish.

This from a person who wants to be a moderator but can't
even listen to any alternative theory so
resorts to ad hominem attacks.


forgiven

namaste

You don’t have an alternate theory!

The world is warming and you blather about an ice age! That is not a theory that is a fantasy! You have a whole thread for this nonsense.

I have shown how Dubyne has lied to you time and time again. Keep that nonsense to the Ice Age thread, OK? You can blather on as much as you like there, show just what sort of gullible fool you are. Don’t post that nonsense in the other threads.

The major ice sheets, Greenland, West Antarctica and East Antarctica are destabilising! Glaciers that reach the sea are retreating fast and the retreat is accelerating: The Jacobshavn glacier on Greenland has retreated as much in the last ten years as it did in the hundred years before that.

You posted your ice age nonsense several times in other threads tonight. Don’t know why, only you and The Moronic believe that nonsense.


Quickly—in under a decade. We have seen how the main ice sheets are destabilising, now factor in one half to one degree extra warming from the sun entering the active part of its multi–decadal cycle. I reckon that the sun could get more active two decades from now.

Then think about the Eemian period, sea levels 9 metres higher than now.

We know that melting polar ice exposes dark sea or dark rocks that absorb rather than reflect sunlight causing more warming. With a more active sun this albedo change will see the poles warm even faster than they are now!

Jovial,

Quote:

Don’t post that nonsense in the other threads.

Don't tell me what I can do.

Don't post your fake graphs & other nonsense in every thread.

Bobby. wrote on Aug 28^th, 2017 at 12:41pm:

Jovial, Quote: Don’t post that nonsense in the other threads. Don't tell me what I can do. Don't post your fake graphs & other nonsense in every thread.

None of Bobby's imaginary icebergs were sighted in Houston.

Bobby should stick to Dicksicles which were at least evident.

http://www.smh.com.au/ffxImage/urlpicture_id_1048653852095_2003/03/28/nws_320dicksmith,0.jpg

You must be winning Bobby, look at the quality of posts backing monk up... :D :D :D :D :D :D

All they have is ridicule. ::)

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 8:06pm:

Go away, Booby, the adults are talking.

Only if you are being silent.
If the Alarmists were right... Flannery would have been right...  he believes in AGW he's a scientist... unlike YOU Monk... and his predictions based on the alarmist rhetoric of scientists you believe and his own knowledge painted a much warmer, dryer, catastrophic scenario, much like the pictures you are painting now.

Alarmists...   :D :D :D :D :D

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27^th, 2017 at 7:55pm:

Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere disappear What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture?

The subject in this thread. Please try to stay on topic.

I am on topic....
You tend to stray though

Grendel wrote on Aug 28^th, 2017 at 12:55pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27th, 2017 at 8:06pm: Go away, Booby, the adults are talking. Only if you are being silent. If the Alarmists were right... Flannery would have been right...  he believes in AGW he's a scientist... unlike YOU Monk... and his predictions based on the alarmist rhetoric of scientists you believe and his own knowledge painted a much warmer, dryer, catastrophic scenario, much like the pictures you are painting now. Alarmists...   :D :D :D :D :D

Grendel wrote on Aug 28^th, 2017 at 3:45pm:

I am on topic.... You tend to stray though Grendel wrote on Aug 28th, 2017 at 12:55pm: Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27th, 2017 at 8:06pm: Go away, Booby, the adults are talking. Only if you are being silent. If the Alarmists were right... Flannery would have been right...  he believes in AGW he's a scientist... unlike YOU Monk... and his predictions based on the alarmist rhetoric of scientists you believe and his own knowledge painted a much warmer, dryer, catastrophic scenario, much like the pictures you are painting now. Alarmists...   :D :D :D :D :D

Bobby the Bat needs worms like Grendel to defend him?

Booby believes a transparent liar like Dubyne. A gullible little fool.

Grendel wrote on Aug 28^th, 2017 at 12:51pm:

You must be winning Bobby, look at the quality of posts backing monk up... :D :D :D :D :D :D All they have is ridicule. ::)

Bobby. wrote on Aug 28^th, 2017 at 12:41pm:

Jovial, Quote: Don’t post that nonsense in the other threads. Don't tell me what I can do. Don't post your fake graphs & other nonsense in every thread.

You have a thread you can post your rubbish videos in, stick to posting fantasy in that.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 28^th, 2017 at 1:53pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 27th, 2017 at 7:55pm: Temperatures have increased by 1.2°C. What if they get hotter, quickly? —the sun sending more radiation our way —albedo change at the poles accelerating —volcanoes quiet long enough aerosols in the upper atmosphere disappear What will happen? Massive failure of icesheets? Massive failure of agriculture? The subject in this thread. Please try to stay on topic.

The question is what relevance is your fantasy compared to reality.

Grendel wrote on Sep 8^th, 2017 at 10:51pm:

The question is what relevance is your fantasy compared to reality.

The question ACTUALLY is why don't his own children beleive grendel is a child hating sociopath  ;D ;D ;D

** we've all met nutcases like you brother and prison terms in other countries are always your history  ;) ;)

Wassup.
Trolling and stupidity all you can come up with?
Unlike YOU sane people know I'm right.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5bgYUDT2SE


"Global Cooling" the movie - Documentary on the Grand Solar Minimum. A new mini ice-age has begun.



Published on Jul 19, 2017

"Global Cooling" the movie is a documentary on the ongoing descent into the Grand Solar Minimum and it's effects on the planet. Special excerpts of John Casey's talk on his book "Cold Sun". If you haven't figured it out yet "Global Warming" caused by man is a hoax perpetuated by falsified data and corrupt governments to achieve population reduction and dominance. What we all need to do is come together as a community and start preparing for the coming food shortages by growing food. Together we can make it through this climatic catastrophe unfolding before our very eyes.