"The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses"

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/carousel/nclimate3274-f1.jpg

"Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified."

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3274.html

Oh, dear. The models are running hot again.

Interesting paper.

When is a predator-prey relationship not a predator-prey relationship?

TheFunPolice wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:23pm:

When is a predator-prey relationship not a predator-prey relationship?

When it is an artefact of flawed methodology. ;)

lee wrote on Apr 19^th, 2017 at 11:22am:

TheFunPolice wrote on Apr 18th, 2017 at 10:23pm: When is a predator-prey relationship not a predator-prey relationship? When it is an artefact of flawed methodology. ;)

You're lost buddy : bye bye Malcolm et al.!!!!  ;)

Quote:

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated

So it still warmed, it just warmed more slowly.
You can call it a Hiatus if you like but that is really just semantics.

I've never had an issue with a slow down in the warming over 10 - 15 year time spans. After all "climate" has to be considered over time scales of at least 30 years. Anything less than that includes too much background noise.

The_Barnacle wrote on Apr 19^th, 2017 at 10:01pm:

Quote: During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated So it still warmed, it just warmed more slowly. You can call it a Hiatus if you like but that is really just semantics. I've never had an issue with a slow down in the warming over 10 - 15 year time spans. After all "climate" has to be considered over time scales of at least 30 years. Anything less than that includes too much background noise.

Even 30 years is not long enough. Maybe 2 climate periods?

And with even more CO2.

But all you have to do is link it to AGW. ;)

I doubt there is any halt or slowdown of warming if the Arctic is taken into account. The Arctic is where AGW is happening most rapidly (albedo change.)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:13am:

I doubt there is any halt or slowdown of warming if the Arctic is taken into account. The Arctic is where AGW is happening most rapidly (albedo change.)

Back to your belief systems again. ;)

Interesting graph

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cx3KWzMW8AEiamH.jpg

They wouldn't adjust past temperatures would they? ;)

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:13am:

I doubt there is any halt or slowdown of warming if the Arctic is taken into account. The Arctic is where AGW is happening most rapidly (albedo change.)

'Albedo change' possibly captures the pig.

There are many reasons why the Southern Hemisphere is colder than the N.H. but the basic idea is that the S.H. is the 'water hemisphere'.

The big ice block called Antartica is not quite twice the size of the usa- just over double the size of Australia... Australia being a bit smaller than the USA.

Greenland is bugger all compared to Antartica and if Greenland is not melting at an 'appreciable' rate then the deniers can get away with anything.

...and they are because Greenland is not melting at what the world perceives as an appreciable rate!

Perception is politics!

lee wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 11:33am:

Interesting graph https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cx3KWzMW8AEiamH.jpg They wouldn't adjust past temperatures would they? ;)

sources?

TheFunPolice wrote on Apr 20^th, 2017 at 1:32pm:

sources?

Can't find it. Don't you just hate that?

However there is a version -

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/reyk_thumb.gif

Found a version here

https://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/more-spectacular-arctic-temperature-fraud-from-noaanasa/

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 3:29pm:

Interesting paper.

This paper.

What hiatus?