https://phys.org/news/2017-02-likelihood-dangerous-climate-thresholds.html

"The issues with green house gases are extraordinary and complex and the consequences of rising green houses gases will have global impacts. "Of course, our results are model dependent and, as with any model, could certainly change as the model design or input parameters evolve," said Fyke.

https://phys.org/news/2017-02-likelihood-dangerous-climate-thresholds.html#jCp

And of course start conditions. ;)

We know flooding will be a major problem caused by AGW:

Marine flooding, caused both by land ice melting and increasing warmth causing the oceans to increase in volume. A small increase in sea level means floods can reach inland further. Just ask those living in New York after hurricane Sandy.

Riverine/lacustrine flooding, caused by increasing evaporation/precipitation. Certainly have had floods down the east coast of Australia!

The man on the land is already feeling the impact of AGW on his land and the crops they can grow. One Landline program a wheat farmer was describing how they have had to change the variety of wheat he grew.

As a member of the Saltram’s No1 club I have attended two open days at the winery. They are pulling vines on the Barossa Valley floor and replacing them with more heat tolerant Italian varieties: Fiano etc. Other wineries now feature wines from other Italian grape varieties, Pino grigio etc. Another problem the Saltram chief winemaker and the viticulturalist mentioned, and this is also mentioned in programs like Landline or other good science programs, is that different varieties of grapes reach harvest closer and closer together, as do grapes grown in different locations (valley floor, escarpment and Eden Valley in the case of Saltrams.) This makes winemaking very difficult, varieties arriving at the crusher at short and shortening intervals.

So the better the models become the better can the man on the land, the hydrlogical engineers etc plan for coping with the effects of climate change.

Interesting stuff.

Jovial Monk wrote on Feb 25^th, 2017 at 9:46am:

Riverine/lacustrine flooding, caused by increasing evaporation/precipitation. Certainly have had floods down the east coast of Australia!

And of course that has never happened before. ;)

Mainland wineries are also beginning to acquire or plant vineyards in Tasmania to get some cold weather grapes: grapes planted where it gets hot have plenty of sugars and fruit flavor but no balancing acidity, no structure to the wine.

Brown Bros, located in Victoria on the banks of the Murray, has acquired vineyards in Tasmania:

https://www.brownbrothers.com.au/products/7743-discover-tasmania/


Quote:

"It is now more than five years since we acquired vineyards in Tasmania; a big decision for us, after being solidly rooted in Victoria for 120 years. The wines have exceeded our already high expectations and they have been so well accepted we are now planting more vines in the region. A great decision!" Ross Brown.

Do a Google on “French vineyards moving to England” plenty of hits. The brits used to (still do, probably) make “country wines” (fruit wines) now the French are planting vineyards there! NOBODY lightly plants a vineyard or pulls vines to plant another variety! $$$ to pull, $$$ to plant, $$$ lost production for some years. Even more dollars gone if you planted the wrong variety or in the wrong place.

Apart from the cost—you plant new vines you don’t get a proper harvest for years.

I talked to the winemaker at a winery on the West Tamar. He confirmed mainland wineries had bought vineyards in Tassie, was bitter they weren’t making single vineyard wines, guess they needed the fruit for blending with mainland wine. Not sure tho but something like that, that the mainland wineries were not making and marketing Tassie wine. This was during the trip to Tassie I made early Sep last year.