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General Discussion >> Federal Politics >> Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1486325505 Message started by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 6:11am |
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Title: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 6:11am
Newspoll is an obedient servant of Malcolm as it keeps giving sniveling Shorty unexplained boosts just to keep him there leading the Unions' Party to an election loss.
Coalition support dives, Hanson on rise Source: AAP 6 FEB 2017 - 6:38 AM UPDATED 19 MINS AGO It's bad news for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull ahead of parliament resuming, with the year's first Newspoll showing support for the coalition collapsing. Support for the federal coalition is now at its lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull ousted Tony Abbott as prime minister, the first Newspoll of the year shows. As parliament returns this week after the summer break, Labor leads 54 to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. The survey of more than 1700 people taken from last Thursday and published in Monday's The Australian shows the coalition's primary vote falling 39 per cent to 35. The last time it was that low two years ago, Mr Abbott faced a move to spill his leadership after the he brought back knighthoods, including one for Prince Philip. Labor's primary vote remains unchanged at 36 per cent, with independents and minor parties earning a surge in support from 15 to 19 per cent. Pauline Hanson's One Nation party enjoys an eight per cent national primary vote - the same level of support it garnered at the 1998 election. This is the seventh consecutive Newspoll lead for Labor, last holding one this large the weekend before Mr Turnbull successfully challenged Mr Abbott for the leadership. One of Mr Turnbull's reasons at the time was the government had lost 30 consecutive Newspoll. The coalition's result comes after a summer of expenses scandals, the loss of the former health minister Sussan Ley from the ministry, and a backlash over the Centrelink debt recovery system. Mr Turnbull has also come under scrutiny for his $1.75 million donation to the Liberal Party for the 2016 federal election campaign and his "frank and forthright" phone call with US President Donald Trump. The prime minister insists he's focused on delivering for Australians, nominating energy prices as a key issue this year. "Everything I am doing is determined and focused on setting us up to succeed again and again in the future, and ensure that we've got the great jobs, the great well-paying jobs, the great opportunities for our kids and grandkids," he told Laurie Oakes on 60 Minutes. http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/02/06/coalition-support-dives-hanson-rise |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 7:05am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 6:11am:
;D ;D ;D ;D if that helps you sleep better, you tell yourself that. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by stunspore on Feb 6th, 2017 at 7:11am John Smith wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 7:05am:
Who can truly understand the mind of the crazed? |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 7:16am stunspore wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 7:11am:
desperate people say desperate things. ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by macman on Feb 6th, 2017 at 8:27am
The problem is John, he is not desperate. In his parallel universe everything is fine and malcolm is doing a wonderful job leading his functional, united government. ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Bam on Feb 6th, 2017 at 8:35am John Smith wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 7:05am:
Imagine what Juliar's going to be like after the 2025 election when Shorten wins a third term as PM. Speculation, I know, but not unlikely. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 8:53am Bam wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 8:35am:
JuLiar will be in foetal position , ghostly white , sucking it's thumb , shitting it's nappy whilst muttering incoherent babble long before 2019 |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:04am
Lefties, pour soles, simply cannot understand the topic and so they do what comes naturally, have a go at the poster.
Hard to figure what difference that will make. Personally I find it very encouraging to have wounded Lefties hurling defamatory abuse. Now to lift the worried Lefties spirits here is a rousing Lefty biased article. NEWSPOLL 54-46 TO LABOR: EARLY DAYS, BUT TURNBULL IS DOOMED THE stupidest of many ill-advised statements by Malcolm Turnbull is the excuse of “30 losing Newspolls” he gave to justify knifing his predecessor; today’s is the seventh straight “losing” Newspoll, featuring awful numbers for the government on almost every line, and Turnbull’s abysmal ratings stuck where they dwelt for much of his first hapless stint as Liberal leader: in the toilet. It is early in the day, but this poll makes it clear. Turnbull is finished. You know there is something very, very wrong when a Prime Minister whose personal approval rating increases by a solitary point — despite two-thirds of the respondents to a reputable poll declining to express approval — and leading a government on track for an electoral belting has a pack of sycophants in tow disseminating the message that he’s roaring back into contention because he “stood up” to Donald Trump: never mind the fact that the rest of the world almost unanimously recognises that the PM was badly humiliated, and in front of a global audience to boot. Yes, Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating in Newspoll increased this week, from 32% to 33%. Truly. But sarcasm aside, the first Newspoll for 2017 (published in The Australian, which you can access here) might be easier for the Turnbull camp to spin its way out of if not for the fact that it lands squarely in the middle of ReachTel and Essential Media findings that have been posted over the last month; the headline finding that the Coalition trails Labor by eight points after preferences is now disturbingly consistent across all of the polls that have been in the field so far this year. The fact Newspoll is generally the most accurate makes this result even worse. And with the 4.4% swing to the ALP this poll represents from the July election — handing 20 seats to Labor if replicated at an election and with them, government with a majority of 24 seats — it is obvious that Malcolm Turnbull has a very big problem indeed. There are some interesting messages coming out of this poll, and Turnbull isn’t the only one who ought to be contemplating his next move in life, but more on that shortly. But at a time of year that is often the friendliest for governments — the silly season, when most people switch off politics, and re-emerge feeling pretty good about themselves and the state of the world* — it does rather appear that for the second year in a row, Turnbull has blown the easiest opportunity on offer to get a bit of momentum going before the business of government cranks back up to top gear. Another travel expenses scandal, another disgraced minister, another reshuffle that may or may not turn out to have been astutely crafted (for once), the embarrassment of the leaks about the Trump call, the botched disclosure of Turnbull’s personal $1.75m donation to the Liberal Party: it’s getting to be a fairly tired old story, and there is every indication — and not just from the polls, if you talk to enough people on the street, well away from the surrealistic bubble politicians occupy — that the electorate has completely switched off from Malcolm Turnbull. The personal approval numbers — for both Turnbull and opposition “leader” Bill Shorten — are abjectly pathetic, to the point anyone on either side who crows about them has a psychiatric problem; Turnbull elicited approval from 33% of Newspoll respondents; Shorten, 32%. It doesn’t really matter that Turnbull picked up a point, or that Shorten dropped a couple. There are no trends here aside from the fact voters generally want to throw the Turnbull government out of power. More than half of Newspoll’s respondents disapproved of both. Similarly, the fact Turnbull continues to lead Shorten on the “preferred PM” measure — by 42% (+1%) to 30% (-2%) — has all the excitement about it of a mildew colony growing spores. A friend of mine (a fellow Carlton Football Club fanatic) has a habit at Carlton games, when we trail the opposition by 50 or 60 points, of sarcastically yelling “Charge!” when the team kicks a behind for a miserable extra point after missing a goal; the anecdote neatly reflects Turnbull’s “progress” on this measure in this survey: negligible to the point of useless. But aside from the headline 54-46 finding — which is damning for a government re-elected seven months ago that hasn’t really actually done anything — it is on the primary vote findings in this Newspoll that the real story lies. With the Coalition registering just 35% (-4% since December), the magnitude of the hole Turnbull has adroitly steered the government into over the past 15 months becomes starkly apparent. No government has ever won an election with 35% of the vote; even Julia Gillard in 2010 — at an election Labor technically lost — managed a sliver better than 37%. And Lefties, hang onto your hats there is even more... |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:04am
And the saga continues...
With the Coalition registering just 35% (-4% since December), the magnitude of the hole Turnbull has adroitly steered the government into over the past 15 months becomes starkly apparent. No government has ever won an election with 35% of the vote; even Julia Gillard in 2010 — at an election Labor technically lost — managed a sliver better than 37%. Those votes appear to have gone to One Nation and the “Others” pile (which register 8% and 11% respectively) and, by virtue of Labor’s two-party figure increasing two points to 54%, it is clear that these nominally conservative voters are disinclined to back Turnbull on any basis: the now well-known phenomenon of right-wing electors preferring to banish the Coalition to opposition and endure a term of Labor in office rather than vote for Turnbull at all. Yet the ALP vote, at 36%, has not increased in this poll, sitting just a solitary point above its level at last year’s election and two points above the belting it suffered at the hands of Tony Abbott in September 2013. Labor is simply not an attractive option for anyone beyond its bare core base. There are three things that can readily be extrapolated from these figures: one, the support lost to the Coalition may or may not be retrievable, given the ALP has singularly failed to make direct inroads; two, that the problem emanates almost exclusively from Turnbull (and to a lesser extent, the non-performing ministers who hold their posts because they voted for him against Abbott, rather than fielding the best team the Coalition might offer); and three, if the ALP is serious about a return to office, it is going to have to get rid of Bill Shorten and replace him with somebody more attractive to the broader electorate. Had Mal Brough — a Turnbull appointment that quickly proved very foolish indeed, given the lightning speed with which federal Police raided his house after his return to the ministry — remained on the backbench, it is likely Shorten would have been junked by Labor in late 2015; bereft of credibility and reeling from the Royal Commission into the union movement, ALP hardheads were readying to dump him if he didn’t go quietly. But the Brough raid gave Shorten breathing room, and he survived. Just as a week can be a long time in politics, it often turns on a dime; and had Brough not been promoted as a reward for his work putting the numbers together for Turnbull’s leadership challenge, or had Turnbull done as this column advised and called a December 2015 election, then the Coalition’s thumping 2013 majority would likely still be intact today — and the government equipped with a lot more insurance against the parlous situation it now contemplates. I have said many times, including in this column, that a leadership change at the ALP should be interpreted as a sign it is serious about winning an election, and confident it is able to do so. In this sense, there is little for Shorten to be satisfied with in these numbers even though they show Labor comfortably ahead on the two-party measure. But that’s the point: and however the 54% ALP number is arrived at — low primary vote notwithstanding — it is impossible to crunch these numbers and get any other outcome from them but a crushing election defeat for the Coalition. I’d never vote for it, but the last thing the Coalition would want is to allow an ALP duumvirate of Tanya Plibersek as leader and Chris Bowen as deputy to get ensconced with a soaring lead in the polls before doing something about its own dire predicament: by that stage, a Labor win would be almost inevitable irrespective of what the Liberals belatedly did about Turnbull. And this is why a change in the Liberal leadership is likely in the top half of 2017: by Easter or at latest before the budget is what I have been hearing. The Liberals have been here before with Turnbull: in 2009, in the aftermath of his injudicious “Utegate” own goal, which raised permanent questions of his political nous and judgement. Malcolm’s personal numbers are now no better than they were following that event. The Coalition’s two-party number, having hit 53% soon after he rolled Abbott and at the time he should have called an election but didn’t, has traversed a gentle but almost ceaseless downward path ever since. During his first stint as Liberal leader, the Coalition’s average two-party result was a 44-56 deficit. On today’s numbers, which are a deadly reconfirmation of that downward slide, Turnbull has almost returned the Coalition to the sorry state in which he left it more than seven years ago. The frustrating thing — as I have published numerous times, including in several articles so far this year — is that the solutions to the government’s problems, whilst difficult to implement, are blindingly obvious: proper conservative policy, sounder strategy and tactics, and far more effective communications. It is clear that the Coalition in its present guise does not possess the requisite smarts on any of these measures. Today’s Newspoll is proof of it, corroborating to vicious effect other polls that have recorded almost identical findings. More overleaf |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:05am Bam wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 8:35am:
he'll disappear and come back as a sock |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:06am
And the saga continues...
I think we have reached the point that it doesn’t really matter what Turnbull says or does now: out in Voterland, nobody is listening. People couldn’t care less. The Liberal Party needs a new leader. It might be early in the day, with two years or so until an election is due, but the bell is tolling. Turnbull is doomed. I might not be one of Malcolm Turnbull’s greatest (political) admirers, as readers well know; but as I said to one rusted-on Turnbull insider a week or so ago, I don’t actually want to see the Liberal Party pushed out of government, either. The only way that outcome can be avoided is by a change of leadership: the transaction risks and costs now easily outweigh the political risks of leaving Turnbull in his post. But with question marks hanging over almost all of the feasible contenders to replace him, and a karma bus with Turnbull’s name on it seemingly packed and ready to hit the road, the party simply cannot afford to make another mistake if it goes down that track, and whilst I have declined at this stage to endorse anyone to replace Turnbull, whoever it is that steps up to the challenge is going to have their work cut out if the Coalition’s electoral position is to be retrieved. Today’s Newspoll is highly unlikely to trigger any kind of leadership challenge when MPs return to Canberra this week. But it almost certainly represents the point at which the ambit muttering that has been going on and the disparate groups resolving to “do something” about the Liberal leadership are galvanised into more concerted activity aimed at getting rid of their dud leader. The stupidest thing any political leader can do is to give his or her opponents a poll-driven yardstick with which to beat the living poo out of them if they flounder; Turnbull did precisely that 17 months ago when he nominated a consecutive sequence of “30 losing Newspolls” as his pretext for shafting Tony Abbott. Today is Malcolm’s very own “losing” Newspoll #7. In a row. If there is one thing that is certain, he won’t get to 30 — or anything remotely approaching it. Turnbull is finished. Anyone with a different reading of today’s Newspoll numbers should enrol in a remedial English class. https://theredandtheblue.org/ |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:06am
Pour Mr Smith has reached hysterical levels as he pounds that dreadful poster with his nonsensical dribble.
Mr Smith you need to take a brake as you are becoming stale just like your hero Shorty, Mal's salvation. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:07am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:06am:
given they only just lost ... one point would be more than sufficient to see the end of the libtards :D :D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:08am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:06am:
that includes the resident village idiot, Juliar. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by macman on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:13am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:04am:
A lefty biased article from Newscorp.......... Did the voices tell you that? ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:18am
And Macca does the std Lefty trick of copy what someone else has posted and then scribble some Lefty dribble beneath.
Must take a lot of mental effort. Ah but it is good to see the Lefties out on the street in front of Centrelink hurling defamatory abuse. Gosh it wood be dull if there were no Lefties to stir up. They are ungrateful as I gave them a silly Lefty biased article so they would have something remotely intelligent to copy and say. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:20am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:18am:
as opposed to the retard trick you do which is copy what someone else has written and scribble some retarded dribble above it? |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:22am John Smith wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:20am:
;D ;D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:27am
Macca,
is on a roll now. Only a Lefty could be as boring as that. Keep up the good work Macca copying other posts and then dribbling some scribble. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:29am
Lefties, what happened to discussion of the topic ?
Is it too hard for you to understand and so you take out your frustration on the poster ? |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by greggerypeccary on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:30am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:29am:
Smell the fear. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:31am greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:30am:
The stench is palpable |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:37am
The Gecko has learnt some new words that I originally supplied. At least he/she copies quality.
LW must be exhausted from all that dribble scribble and denying and lying. Now Lefties I expect a bit higher standard from you. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:39am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:37am:
smell the fear |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by greggerypeccary on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:40am Its time wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:39am:
A palpable stench. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:49am
Shorty will be around lonnnnnnnng after Malcolm has gone gone gone
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Vic on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:49am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:37am:
Attacking Posters now Jules - Tsk Tsk - Not what Mal would expect from a paid to post. Just to ensure you are not a bot - who do you think should replace Turnbull? Think both houses as the Libs could easily push a senator into a seat |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:52am Vic wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:49am:
The question should be who wont lose Libs at least 20 seats at next election , and the answer is , there is nobody ;D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:58am
You can imagine the get together behinds Mals back
Look we're going to knife Mal , who wants the We need some who will lead us to political oblivion and is prepared to be opposition leader for at least 3 terms . Any takers ? :-/ |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:17am
The Lefties are running on empty as they struggle to come to terms with reality.
Their standard response when they can't understand what is happening is to have a go at the annoying poster that shakes them out of their delusional dream of a Socialist paradise. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:20am juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:17am:
There is delusions alright , when your fellow righties are telling you ........... :) |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:11am
LW U get full marks for persistence but for effectiveness, well...
But U must be exhausted from all that endless dribble scribble and that standing on guard at all hours. Take a brake and refill your tanks with Socialist sweets. When is your Centrelink day ? |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:22am
Get ready for a very long time in opposition juLiar :)
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by stunspore on Feb 6th, 2017 at 5:05pm Vic wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:49am:
What option is there for Juliar? Not like the coalition has helped Juliar's cause. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:49pm
One wonders if Poor Stunned, my devoted personal troll, even knows what the topic actually is ?
It is scary to witness first hand the cerebral catastrophe that Socialist indoctrination results in. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:02pm
Mal making sure shorty stays at least 8 points ahead ?
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by stunspore on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:18pm juliar wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 9:49pm:
More garbage from juliar. With every post it only works against coalition's chances of any turn around. As incredulous (and stupid) as bishop's socialist chopter scare. Thank you juliar for showing how to go stupidity and beyond. The sad eogotistic fool. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by juliar on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:27pm
My devoted troll Poor Stunned just cannot keep away from me.
Pity about the obvious debilitating damage from the Socialist indoctrination. |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:50pm
Malcolm a labor plant ?
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:02pm Its time wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 10:50pm:
he was rejected by labor ;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:09pm John Smith wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:02pm:
You sure ;) |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by John Smith on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:13pm Its time wrote on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:09pm:
it's obvious isn't it? why else would someone join the libs? :D :D :D |
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Title: Re: Malcolm making sure Shorty stays there Post by Leftwinger on Feb 6th, 2017 at 11:50pm
Mal making sure , Bill is the next PM after ....... from opposition
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