Quote:

Published on Sep 30, 2016 Donald Trump Believes the stock market bubble will burst just after he takes office. He knows they are waiting for 2017 to collapse the market

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4ZiFSoP_lM

:-/

We've been heading for a correction for some time.

Particularly when -- not if but when -- China can no longer prop up its economy...

The Dow is too high at nearly 20,000 -

a ridiculous level.

Chinese small banks began to fail a couple of years ago. Beijing has been struggling to keep things aloft despite a monumental housing bubble and misled estimates of productivity.
Part of the problem is that, for years, wealthy Chinese have established paper companies or bought into suppliers abroad...who they use for their Chinese factories. The "suppliers" of "goods and services" do so at inflated rates and overstated quantities, as a way for the Chinese owners to transfer wealth out of China.
Three sets of books is not unexpected -- the real ones, the ones for the tax men, and the ones for potential investors/partners.
When China goes boom, it's going to hurt.

As long as the Companies that represent the Dow continue to grow the Market will continue to grow. Any pull back will be temporary and a buying opportunity for savvy investors.

AuntieM wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 11:07pm:

When China goes boom, it's going to hurt.

A danger for the US would be if China starts pulling it's money out too soon and too quickly. The degree of confidence in the Stock Market needs to remain high to provide a good buffer against rampant selling .... but the high Dow has to be backed up by real productivity and increasing employment numbers to prevent that.

If history repeats itself, the 2020s could be a hectic time for buying and selling (read profit taking) much like the 1920s. If Trump wins a second term, and I'm confident he will, he'll need to keep a tight reign on a potential "runaway" economy. The Stock Market might correct itself soon, but it could explode much higher than 20,000 in a few years time. It must be kept under control to avoid a "1929" disaster

Those who ignore history, are bound to repeat it

A correction is in order, or are we going to play semantics for 50 thousand pages?

Wish I had business acumen and looked down my nose at my own children: gee, love to be a big "L"dickface  ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) and talk about this with daddykins over dhufish and prawns and crays until Mummy leaves the room gagging for a discreet laugh  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D  ::) ::)

Bias_2012 wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 12:13am:

AuntieM wrote on Jan 20th, 2017 at 11:07pm: When China goes boom, it's going to hurt. A danger for the US would be if China starts pulling it's money out too soon and too quickly. The degree of confidence in the Stock Market needs to remain high to provide a good buffer against rampant selling .... but the high Dow has to be backed up by real productivity and increasing employment numbers to prevent that. If history repeats itself, the 2020s could be a hectic time for buying and selling (read profit taking) much like the 1920s. If Trump wins a second term, and I'm confident he will, he'll need to keep a tight reign on a potential "runaway" economy. The Stock Market might correct itself soon, but it could explode much higher than 20,000 in a few years time. It must be kept under control to avoid a "1929" disaster Those who ignore history, are bound to repeat it

.. the touble is: WHAT EXACTLY IS HISTORY  ::)

AuntieM wrote on Jan 20^th, 2017 at 10:09pm:

We've been heading for a correction for some time. Particularly when -- not if but when -- China can no longer prop up its economy...

CORRECTION IS THE WORD, for sure!

I re-post the following here,as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Jan 19^th, 2017 at 9:50am:

Amadd wrote on Jan 18th, 2017 at 11:30pm: Really Percy, you've been banging on for years now. Eventually, of course, you'll be able to say "I told yas so". And so would anybody else. Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day. As previously stated, the "normal Modern Economic cycle" is now ending, as the standard "Major Modern Economic Movers" are now coming to their predictable conclusion. Those Major Modern Economic Movers being - 1) Demographics (Population Growth) 2) Energy (Cheap & Available) 3) Climate (the fairytale Climate is now changing) 4) Technology (now slowing AND Technology is also a 2 edged sword) We have already had the GFC, which was only a starter! The next part of what is coming, has also been long predictable, because TPTB (the Pollies, Big Business & Unions) have for far too long pushed their own Short Term interests, at the expense of the Best, Long Term interests of the Entire Population! Finally, what & when will precipitate the start of what is to come Economically, is quite difficult because of the amount of "pushing & pulling in various directions. BUT, I would suggest the Black Swan event, which will push us into the next phase, is now closing in quickly!

I re-post the following here,as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 1:53pm:

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge Summary Deficits are projected to explode. Gold trends with deficits. And so does the dollar. There is much we don't know about how the Trump presidency will play out. Will the Wall get built? Who will pay for it? Will it have at least some fencing? Will repeal and replace happen at exactly the same time? Will Trump throw a ceremonial switch? Will there be a Trump National Golf Course in Sochi? It's anyone's guess. But of one thing we can be fairly certain. President Trump is very likely to preside over the largest expansion of Federal budget deficits in our history. Trump has built his companies with debt and I'm sure he thinks he can do the same with the country. His annual budget deficits are likely going to be huge. This development will make a greater impact on the investment landscape than most on Wall Street can imagine. In the past half-century, Republican presidents have been the going-away winners at the deficit derby, a fact that should make any true conservative blush. The sad truth is that annual deficits exploded under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, and generally contracted under Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Some of the explanation is just luck of the draw, some walked into office in the midst of recessions they didn't create. Democrats want to raise spending and taxes. Republicans want to cut spending and taxes. But whereas Democrats have generally succeeded on both of their missions, Republicans have just succeeded in one. (Actual spending cuts require politically difficult choices that are much harder to vote for than perennially popular tax cuts). Like prior Republicans, Trump has promised to cut taxes, on both corporations and individual taxpayers… even the wealthy. But unlike prior Republicans, he has not paid a word of lip service to spending cuts. He has promised to spend now, and spend big. Trump just doesn't do the austerity thing. It's for losers. In addition to fronting the cost of building the 2,000 mile Wall (accounts receivable has a reliable address in Mexico), Trump plans big increases in military spending, both on active military and on our veterans. His reboot of Obamacare has yet to be presented, but as he has promised that no one will lose coverage, not even those with pre-existing conditions, we can be sure that Trumpcare won't be cheap. But his big project will likely be his promised $1 trillion plus infrastructure spending plan. Most importantly, he diverges from most Republicans by promising no structural changes in Social Security and Medicare, the entitlement leviathans that are the sources of the vast majority of Federal red ink. Even if none of Trump's taxing and spending plans come to fruition, the United States would still be on the threshold of a sobering era of debt expansion. The age of trillion dollar plus annual deficits began in 2009 when the financial crisis tripled a very large $458 billion deficit in 2008 into a record-smashing $1.4 trillion in 2009.Three more trillion-dollar deficits followed. But since 2009, excluding a small increase from 2010 to 2011, the deficits have declined steadily. By 2015, they had decreased to $438 billion, slightly below where they were before the crisis began. Over the past century we have seen a recession, on average, every 60 months (based on data from National Bureau of Economic Research and Bureau of Labor Statistics). According to current figures, the economy has been in expansion for 92 consecutive months. This means that the current expansion is already 50% longer than average. The Great Recession caused the deficit to triple.  The next recession I expect to work similar magic. But, in addition to being blind to recessions, the CBO was also blind to Donald Trump. As mentioned previously, Trump has virtually promised to do both in the first year of his presidency. If he is successful, we could return to trillion-dollar deficits much sooner than the CBO thinks. A recession could push the red ink well into record territory.

I re-post the following here,as it is relevant!


perceptions_now wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 2:01pm:

Trump Deficits Will Be Huge (Cont) Of course, who on Wall Street has picked up on these macro trends? In fact, one of the biggest issues currently being discussed is how the U.S. economy will deal with a perennially strengthening dollar. They are assuming that the Federal Reserve will be raising rates and that the economy will be expanding under the Trump stimulus thereby strengthening the dollar and attracting flows from abroad. This type of "trees grow to the sky" thinking is similar to Clinton-era assumptions that the national debt would be repaid by perpetual budget surpluses, or the feeling earlier in this century that real estate prices could never decline. To make these assumptions, Wall Street must ignore the obvious ramifications of big deficits, in particular the need for the Federal Reserve to step up and buy all the new debt that the Trump administration will have to issue. The last time the government had to find buyers for more than a trillion dollars per year of debt, it relied on foreign central banks. Eight years ago, the vast majority of Treasury debt was purchased by China and Japan (and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other emerging nations in Asia and Latin America). But as the debt surge persisted, the real heavy hitter became the Federal Reserve itself which, through its Quantitative Easing (QE) Program, bought more than half a trillion dollars of Treasury debt per year from 2009 to 2014. But there can be little expectation that the foreign buyers will be returning for a repeat performance. Currently, both China and Japan are looking to draw down foreign exchange and are engaged in active selling of U.S. Treasuries in order to keep their currencies from declining against the dollar (Scott Lanman, 10/18/16, Bloomberg). What's more, Donald Trump is likely to engage in aggressive trade wars that may certainly discourage other foreign central banks from supporting our debt issuance. Also, bond analysts are now convinced that the 35-year plus bond bull market, which began in 1980, finally topped out in July of 2016, when European and Japanese yields sank deeply into negative territory and yields on the 10-year Treasury hit 1.36% (Peter Boockvar, 9/19/16, CNBC). Since then bond prices are down significantly across the board. If this trend continues, it will discourage private buyers from making the jump into Treasuries. In other words, the Fed may be the only game in town when it comes to financing future deficits in a new bond bear market. This would mean that the QE programs that many had assumed to be a thing of the past can return with a vengeance, becoming the signature program of the Trump era. When this reality sinks in, you may witness the dollar begin a long and steady decline from its current decades-high strength. At the same time, gold, gold stocks, commodities and foreign stocks could finally enter a turnaround. Ultimately, I expect years of dollar decline to culminate in a crisis, with the dollar plunging in value, as the world abandons it as its primary reserve currency. The last time the dollar was on the brink of collapse it was saved by the financial crisis of 2008. Next time we will not be so lucky! http://seekingalpha.com/article/4037879-trump-deficits-will-huge?ifp=0 ================================= So, "will Trump & his supposed Policies", be the "Black  Swan Event" that may finally tip the Global Economy?

TheFunPolice wrote on Jan 21^st, 2017 at 4:27pm:

the touble is: WHAT EXACTLY IS HISTORY

Past events perhaps!

The 1890s downturn repeated itself in the 1990s for example. I knew it was coming and battened down financially to see it through. No job advertisements early in the phase, so I started and ran a small sole trader business in the automotive engineering trade as a stop gap until jobs became available in 1999-2000, then closed the business and got a job that paid more

The hundred year cycle means the 1920s will repeat in the 2020s overheating the market, it just depends on how central banks handle it and how wise investors will be when confronted with "easy" stock profits 

In the meantime, there may well be a downturn but we'll need to weigh everything up against Trump's "America First" policy, a powerhouse economy that may very well become more powerful

I too, used to predict a market collapse, but that came from being influenced by unease of war and watching gold reach $1,700 per ounce, plus govt policies adversarial to small and large businesses everywhere

I'm not so sure now, it's quite possible that in the wake of the US's push for more market independence, nearly every other nation will adopt a "My Nation First" policy and get more people working productively, and pay down debt