Mark Kenny SMH:

"...insiders in both camps report Labor is doing better in its heartland - i.e. safe seats it already holds - than it is in the marginals where swinging voters will decide the election.

The result could be a repeat of 1998 - a sizeable swing to Labor for only a modest return of new seats. Yet for Shorten personally, that would bring an upwelling of affection from the Labor faithful, casting him as a defeated leader who had fought the good fight for "Labor" values - very useful if your challenger is the darling of the rank-and-file, the Left's Anthony Albanese.

All of this suggests Shorten may well be already thinking about his own survival as leader beyond the horizon. Don't expect him to use the term or even to accept the logic, but the inescapable conclusion is that he has a two-election strategy having concluded months ago that gaining the 19 Coalition seats needed to win on July 2 is unachievable."

Will Albanese be there post election?

The Greens are targeting his seat.....

Opinions are like, well, you know, we all have them..

Just accept it Bogarde73- Short arse will be the next PM and the sky will not fall in.  :)

Swagman wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:12pm:

Will Albanese be there post election? The Greens are targeting his seat.....

  Albo would wipe the floor with the turd- and the Greens take his seat ? give me a break ;D

Agnes wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:15pm:

Swagman wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:12pm: Will Albanese be there post election? The Greens are targeting his seat.....   Albo would wipe the floor with the turd- and the Greens take his seat ? give me a break ;D

These are serious times...

Why are Labor wasting their time with someone who doesn't even believe he can win.

You have to have a super confident person - a person who KNOWS he's going to win and doesn't even think about the alternative.

Once you start thinking you might not win you've already lost.

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:18pm:

Why are Labor wasting their time with someone who doesn't even believe he can win. You have to have a super confident person - a person who KNOWS he's going to win and doesn't even think about the alternative. Once you start thinking you might not win you've already lost.

Personally, I hope that on this one thing Shorten is right. He would be an unmitigated disaster of Trump proportions if he ever becomes PM. I'm still in shock that he got the job after his "I agree with Julia debacle of an interview". Shows the lack of talent within ALP ranks if he's the best they can pick.

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:18pm:

Why are Labor wasting their time with someone who doesn't even believe he can win. You have to have a super confident person - a person who KNOWS he's going to win and doesn't even think about the alternative. Once you start thinking you might not win you've already lost.

 

I call that arrogance and a sign you have already rigged the result -  ;)  You know , like having an old buzzard like Rupert on your side.?

Agnes wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:15pm:

Swagman wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:12pm: Will Albanese be there post election? The Greens are targeting his seat.....   Albo would wipe the floor with the turd- and the Greens take his seat ? give me a break ;D

Scintillating political commentary, grounded in thoughtful insight, observation and careful consideration of Australian politics.

Armchair_Politician wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:20pm:

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:18pm: Why are Labor wasting their time with someone who doesn't even believe he can win. You have to have a super confident person - a person who KNOWS he's going to win and doesn't even think about the alternative. Once you start thinking you might not win you've already lost. Personally, I hope that on this one thing Shorten is right. He would be an unmitigated disaster of Trump proportions if he ever becomes PM. I'm still in shock that he got the job after his "I agree with Julia debacle of an interview". Shows the lack of talent within ALP ranks if he's the best they can pick.

The reality with the ALP though is that they don't look for their "best".
They look for the person who will be the most malleable for the union faction in the ascendancy at the time.
Shorten was a good pick for them because he's malleable for any union faction any time.

Do you have a link to the Mark Kenny article Bogie?

Found it

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:06pm:

Mark Kenny SMH: "...insiders in both camps report Labor is doing better in its heartland - i.e. safe seats it already holds - than it is in the marginals where swinging voters will decide the election. The result could be a repeat of 1998 - a sizeable swing to Labor for only a modest return of new seats. Yet for Shorten personally, that would bring an upwelling of affection from the Labor faithful, casting him as a defeated leader who had fought the good fight for "Labor" values - very useful if your challenger is the darling of the rank-and-file, the Left's Anthony Albanese. All of this suggests Shorten may well be already thinking about his own survival as leader beyond the horizon. Don't expect him to use the term or even to accept the logic, but the inescapable conclusion is that he has a two-election strategy having concluded months ago that gaining the 19 Coalition seats needed to win on July 2 is unachievable."

Rubbish - the Coalition can only afford to lose 14 seats, not 19. After that we're in hung government territory where anything is possible including another election. The Coalition have lost two notional seats due to redistributions so we're down to 12. They will probably lose 3-4 seats in Queensland and gain Fairfax, lose another 2-4 in NSW, lose one or two in Victoria and the same for Tasmania, lose Solomon in the NT and at least four in WA and possibly up to eight. SA is too hard to predict but it is not likely that the Coalition will hold all their seats there.

Even an optimistic assessment for the Coalition suggests they will probably be down to 75 seats and looking to the crossbenches to form minority government. Most likely they will gain support from Katter. It is possible that McGowan or even Windsor will lend support as well. I expect the latter two to support the party or coalition who holds the most seats just for the sake of stability.

A more pessimistic assessment for the Coalition won't see them getting to 70 seats. Once either side fails to reach 70 seats, forming government is impossible if the crossbench has five or more MPs.

And Turnbull knows this. That is why he's trying the desperate tactic of pleading for votes by dishonestly asserting that only the Coalition can deliver stable government. Once a party stops telling people about policy, there is the real risk that people stop listening.

Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:47pm:

Do you have a link to the Mark Kenny article Bogie? Found it

Let me know where it quotes that Bill doesn't think he can win.

I'd hate to think that Boges would use a misleading title.....

Seems Kenny is like Mal....... A flip flopper!

Heading into this election season, the contest was glibly described as Malcolm Turnbull's to lose. How prophetic, because that seems to be precisely what he has been busy doing. Losing it.

The observation had been intended as a statement of his sheer dominance - as a creative way of describing how supremely unlikely a come-from-behind Labor win was, given (i) the history of federal elections, (ii) the recent ugly period of Rudd-Gillard, (iii) the stark electoral arithmetic facing it now; and, (iv) the solid popularity edge Turnbull enjoyed over the unfashionable Bill Shorten.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/election-2016-malcolm-turnbull-is-losing-it-one-retreat-at-a-time-20160603-gpba89.html#ixzz4Alyqb6cN
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

i see nothing in the OP to suggest they have any insight to what Shorten thinks.

Nevertheless, Labor have always been the underdog. Shorten knew it was a tough battle from the beginning. Winning is never a certainty

Lobo wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:02pm:

Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:47pm: Do you have a link to the Mark Kenny article Bogie? Found it Let me know where it quotes that Bill doesn't think he can win. I'd hate to think that Boges would use a misleading title.....

Sadly yes Boges is applying his version what Shortie might think if he were ever asked and he wasnt!

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 2:06pm:

Mark Kenny SMH: "...insiders in both camps report Labor is doing better in its heartland - i.e. safe seats it already holds - than it is in the marginals where swinging voters will decide the election. The result could be a repeat of 1998 - a sizeable swing to Labor for only a modest return of new seats. Yet for Shorten personally, that would bring an upwelling of affection from the Labor faithful, casting him as a defeated leader who had fought the good fight for "Labor" values - very useful if your challenger is the darling of the rank-and-file, the Left's Anthony Albanese. All of this suggests Shorten may well be already thinking about his own survival as leader beyond the horizon. Don't expect him to use the term or even to accept the logic, but the inescapable conclusion is that he has a two-election strategy having concluded months ago that gaining the 19 Coalition seats needed to win on July 2 is unachievable."

wasnt it the same with the second coming of krudd????..

at the end of the day he saved his own seat therefore saving them from an even bigger humiliation...

krudd is probably all ready running his hands in glee... ;D ;D... even julia could have a drink to see that.

dont think bill has too many friends who will give a damn at the end of the day.

cods wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:19pm:

dont think bill has too many friends who will give a damn at the end of the day.

I am sure you would know that as much as Mark kenny know what Bill is thinking long term!

Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:22pm:

cods wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 3:19pm: dont think bill has too many friends who will give a damn at the end of the day. I am sure you would know that as much as Mark kenny know what Bill is thinking long term!

all I know is a lot of sour grape lefties will go all out to elect this person who has not one loyal bone in his body..

they have no ethics at all as far as i am concerned...

they know exactly what they are voting for.. they are not dreaming or guessing.. >:( >:( >:(

Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:14pm:

Lobo wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 3:02pm: Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:47pm: Do you have a link to the Mark Kenny article Bogie? Found it Let me know where it quotes that Bill doesn't think he can win. I'd hate to think that Boges would use a misleading title..... Sadly yes Boges is applying his version what Shortie might think if he were ever asked and he wasnt!

Bogey, Bogey, Bogey.....
I'm deeply disappointed in you......

Lobo wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:28pm:

Bogey, Bogey, Bogey..... I'm deeply disappointed in you......

don't worry, so is he

All these unreal Lefty and Greenie fantasies.

heheheheheh - another shorten thread ...heheheheheheh

juliar wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:31pm:

All these unreal Lefty and Greenie fantasies.

boges will get cross with you if you keep calling him a leftie

Shorty doesn't THINK he can win ?

Everybody else KNOWS he can't win!!!

Lobo wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:02pm:

Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:47pm: Do you have a link to the Mark Kenny article Bogie? Found it I'm sorry to say Froggie that you don't even seem to be able to interpret what you're reading. Let me know where it quotes that Bill doesn't think he can win. I'd hate to think that Boges would use a misleading title.....

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 6^th, 2016 at 3:56pm:

Lobo wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 3:02pm: Redmond Neck wrote on Jun 6th, 2016 at 2:47pm: Do you have a link to the Mark Kenny article Bogie? Found it I'm sorry to say Froggie that you don't even seem to be able to interpret what you're reading. Let me know where it quotes that Bill doesn't think he can win. I'd hate to think that Boges would use a misleading title.....

Evidently you haven't worked out how to separate posts yet.

I am able to interpret what I read very well.
This is what I read in YOUR title.


Quote:

Shorten doesn't think he can win

It would appear to all that YOU can't interpret what you type.

Now, is that a quote from Shorten, or your twisted interpretation?

Yeah, I know, rhetorical question......

I think Bill thinks he can win.