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General Discussion >> General Board >> Longer hotter heat waves are coming
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Message started by Laugh till you cry on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm

Title: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Laugh till you cry on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm
http://www.australianetworknews.com/australia-climate-scientists-warn-longer-hotter-heatwaves/


Quote:
Climate scientist Dr. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick warns Australians on longer and hotter heatwaves which will likely increase temperature up to 50 degrees Celsius.

Yahoo News Australia reported that the warning comes after Perth battled its record-breaking hot weather over the weekend. Perth is struggling through its longest run of days above 39 degrees Celsius. Currently, the highest temperature ever recorded in Australia was 50.7 Celsius in Oodnadatta South Australia in 1960.

Dr. Perkins-Kirkpatrick told Brisbane Times that the hot weather will continue as it is becoming the norm of Australia over the past 60 years.

“Those really rare heatwaves we might have only seen once every 20 years for example, might occur now once every two years. They will certainly be occurring lot more often than what they used to had climate change not occurred,” she said. Heatwaves are defined as high temperatures recorded during the day and night of three or more consecutive days.

Bureau of Meteorology Senior Climatologist Blair Trewin affirms Dr. Perkins-Kirkpatrick’s claim, saying there had been a steady increase in extreme hot weather events and a decline of extreme cold events. The hot weather has becoming more intense, particularly on the south of the continent, the scientists observed.


2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.

According to Brisbane Times, heatwaves in Sydney are occurring an average of three weeks earlier. Melbourne is also copping stretches of extreme heat earlier in the summer but experiencing about the same number of heatwave days. Canberra is having twice as many heatwave days each year, although its intensity has remained the same.

The Western Australian State Emergency Management Plan (WASEMP) warns people to be cautious. “Associated with these events is the projected increase in the number of heat-related deaths and consequential impacts on community, infrastructure and services,” reminds WASEMP.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by greggerypeccary on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:55pm


Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by perceptions_now on Feb 10th, 2016 at 1:11pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:55pm:


YES, it has been "HOT"!!!

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Laugh till you cry on Feb 10th, 2016 at 2:10pm

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Neferti on Feb 10th, 2016 at 2:29pm
Stop whining about the HEAT. It's SUMMER!

Most people have air conditioning at home, drive to work in an a/c car, sit all day in an a/c building. Then come home to a/c in the house.

NOBODY says you have to work on a Building Site in 40C heat ...  ;D

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by lee on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:20pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
“Those really rare heatwaves we might have only seen once every 20 years for example,
Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.

might occur now once every two year


Of course it MIGHT not.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Laugh till you cry on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:38pm

lee wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:20pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
“Those really rare heatwaves we might have only seen once every 20 years for example,
Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.

might occur now once every two year


Of course it MIGHT not.


Please keep your cool to avoid spontaneous human combustion.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by lee on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:47pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:38pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.



Yeah. BoM homogenises data. We get that. According to the report into BoM they can't replicate their homogenisations. It is not a mathematical algorithm, it is a judgement call.

"I think that place should be 2.5 degrees warmer." "There done . Fixed." But it is World's Best Practice according to BoM. So that means US and UK as well use that method.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Laugh till you cry on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:57pm

lee wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:47pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:38pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.


Yeah. BoM homogenises data. We get that. According to the report into BoM they can't replicate their homogenisations. It is not a mathematical algorithm, it is a judgement call.

"I think that place should be 2.5 degrees warmer." "There done . Fixed." But it is World's Best Practice according to BoM. So that means US and UK as well use that method.


Closet poms have an aversion to truth. It makes them hot under the collar.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by lee on Feb 10th, 2016 at 7:09pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:57pm:
BoM homogenises data



'The ACORN-SAT data uses a more limited and fixed network of temporally homogenised data that is specific for estimating change over time, and particularly climate change. Temporal homogenisation refers to analyses that attempts to account for spurious (non-climate related) changes in the data.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/events/january-heatwave-methods.shtml

'The Forum noted that the extent to which the development of the ACORN-SAT dataset from the raw data could be automated was likely to be limited, and that the process might better be described as a supervised process in which the roles of metadata and other information required some level of expertise and operator intervention. The Forum investigated the nature of the operator intervention required and the bases on which such decisions are made and concluded that very detailed instructions from the Bureau are likely to be necessary for an end-user who wishes to reproduce the ACORN-SAT findings. Some such details are provided in Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) technical reports (e.g. use of 40 best-correlated sites for adjustments, thresholds for adjustment, and so on); however, the Forum concluded that it is likely to remain the case that several choices within the adjustment process remain a matter of expert judgment and appropriate disciplinary knowledge.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Sir Bobby on Feb 10th, 2016 at 7:43pm
This summer hasn't been too bad in Melbourne.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Leftwinger on Feb 10th, 2016 at 9:05pm

lee wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:47pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:38pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.



Yeah. BoM homogenises data. We get that. According to the report into BoM they can't replicate their homogenisations. It is not a mathematical algorithm, it is a judgement call.

"I think that place should be 2.5 degrees warmer." "There done . Fixed." But it is World's Best Practice according to BoM. So that means US and UK as well use that method.


Stop trying to excuse Tonys idiotic call abolishing all that investment in renewables

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by lee on Feb 10th, 2016 at 9:31pm

Its time wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 9:05pm:
Stop trying to excuse Tonys idiotic call abolishing all that investment in renewables



Ahh, an appeal by idiocy. ;)

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by UnSubRocky on Feb 11th, 2016 at 1:54am
Warm humid week, followed by a week of sprinkling rain. Not too bad for the north east of Australia.

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by malcolmISthetumbleweed on Feb 11th, 2016 at 3:56pm

Neferti wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 2:29pm:
Stop whining about the HEAT. It's SUMMER!

Most people have air conditioning at home, drive to work in an a/c car, sit all day in an a/c building. Then come home to a/c in the house.

NOBODY says you have to work on a Building Site in 40C heat ...  ;D

An argument for eating gold: well, well, well... interesting  ::) ::)

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by malcolmISthetumbleweed on Feb 11th, 2016 at 3:57pm

lee wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:20pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
“Those really rare heatwaves we might have only seen once every 20 years for example,
Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 12:30pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.

might occur now once every two year


Of course it MIGHT not.

nomenclature is so much fun  ::) ::) ::) ::)

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by malcolmISthetumbleweed on Feb 11th, 2016 at 3:58pm

lee wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:47pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 6:38pm:
2015 is the fifth warmest year on record according to data released by Bureau of Meteorology, with significant heatwaves in March, October, and December.



Yeah. BoM homogenises data. We get that. According to the report into BoM they can't replicate their homogenisations. It is not a mathematical algorithm, it is a judgement call.

"I think that place should be 2.5 degrees warmer." "There done . Fixed." But it is World's Best Practice according to BoM. So that means US and UK as well use that method.

link, cheers  :o :o :o

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by athos on Feb 11th, 2016 at 4:00pm
Good, finally.


Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by lee on Feb 11th, 2016 at 4:04pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Feb 11th, 2016 at 3:58pm:
link, cheers




lee wrote on Feb 10th, 2016 at 7:09pm:
'The ACORN-SAT data uses a more limited and fixed network of temporally homogenised data that is specific for estimating change over time, and particularly climate change. Temporal homogenisation refers to analyses that attempts to account for spurious (non-climate related) changes in the data.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/events/january-heatwave-methods.shtml

'The Forum noted that the extent to which the development of the ACORN-SAT dataset from the raw data could be automated was likely to be limited, and that the process might better be described as a supervised process in which the roles of metadata and other information required some level of expertise and operator intervention. The Forum investigated the nature of the operator intervention required and the bases on which such decisions are made and concluded that very detailed instructions from the Bureau are likely to be necessary for an end-user who wishes to reproduce the ACORN-SAT findings. Some such details are provided in Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) technical reports (e.g. use of 40 best-correlated sites for adjustments, thresholds for adjustment, and so on); however, the Forum concluded that it is likely to remain the case that several choices within the adjustment process remain a matter of expert judgment and appropriate disciplinary knowledge.'

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf



Did you miss this? ;)

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Laugh till you cry on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:51pm
We're having a heat wave, a tropical heat wave...


Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by lee on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:54pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:51pm:
We're having a heat wave, a tropical heat wave...



yeah. It is called weather

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by malcolmISthetumbleweed on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:55pm

lee wrote on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:54pm:

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:51pm:
We're having a heat wave, a tropical heat wave...



yeah. It is called weather

You can't define weather  ;)

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by red baron on Feb 12th, 2016 at 6:44pm
When have we had a heatwave? You call a couple of hot days a heatwave?

I can remember when I was a kid it used to get that hot the tar would melt on the playground in summer.

And.....we used to get week after week of 100+ temperatures.

This hasn't been a summer, this has been a fizzer and it has been like that for years. Our summers compared to those of the 60's and 70's are a wipe out.


You climate change crowd are just too much.

Heat wave..WHAT BLOODY HEATWAVE?????????

Title: Re: Longer hotter heat waves are coming
Post by Fireball on Feb 12th, 2016 at 6:50pm

Laugh till you cry wrote on Feb 11th, 2016 at 5:51pm:
We're having a heat wave, a tropical heat wave...



Yep, anybody would think we're living in Australia!



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