This portends a huge bow wave of housing stock if there is a property downturn as the holders seek to dispose ahead of price bottom.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-08/nobody-s-home-australian-boom-leaves-swathe-of-empty-properties


Quote:

Australia’s three-year property boom is leaving Melbourne awash with empty homes. In the country’s second-biggest city, growing numbers of local landlords and absent overseas owners have locked up their properties -- forgoing rental income as they focus instead on price gains, a report by Prosper Australia said Wednesday. Some 82,724 properties, or 4.8 percent of the city’s total housing stock, appear to be unused, said the report, which estimated occupancy rates by gauging water usage. In the worst-hit areas, a quarter of all homes are empty, said Prosper. The Melbourne-based research group is lobbying for more affordable housing through tax reform. Driven by a wave of Chinese buyers and record-low interest rates, average home prices have soared to about A$700,000 ($505,000) in Melbourne and around A$1 million in Sydney. But with prices now cooling, the empty accommodation also masks a hidden glut of supply that could worsen any housing slump. “Those properties need to be utilized,” said Catherine Cashmore, author of the Prosper report, Speculative Vacancies. “Having property sitting vacant has a very high cost on the economy. It’s very destructive to our national prosperity.” Water Use The study, now in its eighth year, assessed 1.7 million residential properties in and around Melbourne during 2014. Those using less than 50 liters of water a day -- the rough equivalent of one shower and a flush of a toilet -- were deemed vacant. Sydney, where high-rise blocks have sprouted in the inner suburbs, is also likely to have a vacancy problem, said Cashmore. Data on water usage at individual apartments isn’t as comprehensive in Sydney as in Melbourne, she said. Surging home prices triggered a boom in high-rise construction in Melbourne’s inner-city suburbs, squashing rental yields and leaving landlords with little incentive to find a tenant, said Cashmore. Chinese Buyers Analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG estimated this year that Chinese buyers were on course to take out 20 percent of new homes across Australia in 2020, up from the current 15 percent. While the Prosper report doesn’t identify overseas-owned properties, it said a “significant proportion” of foreign-owned real estate is empty, inflating prices. “There is a wall of money that is trying to get into Australia,” Cashmore said. “To fight those forces is going to be very difficult.” Cashmore, who also helps find homes as a buyer’s agent, is seeing the legacy of that foreign investment spree. In some apartment blocks in Melbourne, she said entire floors have been sold and lie vacant. She said it’s not unusual for her to walk through a building and be told the owners are from Asia and rarely seen. “It’s a growing problem,” said Cameron Kusher, a Brisbane-based analyst at property information provider CoreLogic Inc. “If these properties aren’t being occupied, it doesn’t do a lot to fix overall housing supply. It’s always going to be the risk when you sell to offshore investors.” Artificial Scarcity The report questions the assumption that Australia’s property affordability barriers can be overcome by building more homes. There’s no housing supply crisis, according to Prosper. Rather, unused property has created an artificial scarcity, Prosper said. Sudden property price declines or an economic slowdown risk unmasking the vacant supply. Owners would start to sell up or look for rental income to cushion the blow from falling prices, she said. “Suddenly, you find there’s no one there to buy it or nobody to rent it. That’s a common pattern in a housing crash,” Cashmore said. “What we’re trying to do is it to make it visible before it happens.”

Creeps me out how much Melbourne looks like a cross between Henderson, Nevada and crumbling L.A.
http://resources3.news.com.au/images/2012/09/08/1226370/428835-melbourne-suburbs.jpg
Cookie cutter housing suburbia can't get any more capitalist than that

Still, I would rather live there then this frozen craphole.

Suburbia of any city is a bit knaff.

Yeah, it looks the same everywhere. Thanks to capitalism.

i find it hard to believe that landlords would leave properties vacant and risk vandalism and squatters rather than take renters. so much so that i dont really beleive this article.

What is the typical level? If the number was very low, it would be very difficult to find a house to rent or buy.

freediver wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 8:23am:

What is the typical level? If the number was very low, it would be very difficult to find a house to rent or buy.

it just sounds suspicious that a landlord would choose NOT to rent a house but leave it at risk for the capital value increase that looks like levelling off anyhow.

Sounds like BS to me.

It appears the numbers are higher than 5% and in some locations more than 10%.

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/l/j/2/h/j/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1449620866595.png

Didn't we have this same discussion about 2 weeks ago?

I thought landbanking was illegal ? So much for the new laws and the libbos looking into it :(

Still, it looks like we have an oversupply problem that is hidden away from the statistics !! Oversupply means the bubble is about to pop and prices to fall !!

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 8:44am:

freediver wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 8:23am: What is the typical level? If the number was very low, it would be very difficult to find a house to rent or buy. it just sounds suspicious that a landlord would choose NOT to rent a house but leave it at risk for the capital value increase that looks like levelling off anyhow.

China is just exporting its property bubble here. The chinks are greedy people and don't like to do anyone any favours. Don't ever expect a chinaman to come here and build a factory to give other people a job. Yeh sure you can build a house for a chinaman but that is about all they will offer in terms of jobs. They come here for the lifestyle and to hoard property which they are not allowed to do in their own country. The desperate government here is so hard-up for any foreign investment they turn a blind eye to it all  :(

Wolseley wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:26am:

Didn't we have this same discussion about 2 weeks ago?

Deja Vu cocky?

If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks.......

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 12:17pm:

If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks.......

Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges.

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 12:26pm:

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges.

It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :(

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 1:16pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :(

Quarter acre blocks are an anachronism. People these days are opting for quality instead of quantity.

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 1:16pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :(

EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions.

Could the falling A$ be a trigger for a massive Chinese sell-off of apartments and houses?

If it is, prices will dive and there will be a severe disruption to building industry as the massive stock takes time to dispose.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:10pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 1:16pm: Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :( EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions.

Get back to me in two years time... I just sold one house and bought another at a lower price... retirement sounds good...

Could the falling A$ be a trigger for a massive Chinese sell-off of apartments and houses?


I think the opposite will happen.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 5:10pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 1:16pm: Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :( EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions.

sir Nail is right -

the house prices are already going down in many suburbs.

Your old fibro dump in Adelaide should be sold to some sucker now.

Bobby. wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 6:59am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 5:10pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 1:16pm: Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :( EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions. sir Nail is right - the house prices are already going down in many suburbs. Your old fibro dump in Adelaide should be sold to some sucker now.

you believe anything day_nail tells you. because you are a gullible idiot. the property market has gone off the boil but prices are still rising which is not how a crash is normally defined.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 8:23am:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 8th, 2016 at 6:59am: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 5:10pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 1:16pm: Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :( EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions. sir Nail is right - the house prices are already going down in many suburbs. Your old fibro dump in Adelaide should be sold to some sucker now. you believe anything day_nail tells you. because you are a gullible idiot. the property market has gone off the boil but prices are still rising which is not how a crash is normally defined.

The good news for Longweekend58 is that the price of fibro shacks, lean-tos and caves is rising.

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 10:11am:

It appears the numbers are higher than 5% and in some locations more than 10%. http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/l/j/2/h/j/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1449620866595.png

Interesting, but all those suburbs are inner city, seems a lot were bought as investments, somewhere to pour money into, and within less than 15 kms from the centre of Melbourne is the way it seems to be favorable for any wealthier overseas investors, because they could, and were allowed to by our government.

Which means they didn't have to rent it, or live in it.

But does that mean there is a glut of rental properties, just because these houses are being remained as empty?

I don't really know about the Melbourne metro area, but I do know this much, out here where I live, about an hour east of Melbourne, the Yarra Valley and the Dandenong Ranges, is a shortage of rentals, and my friend, whom had to sell her beautiful home on 5 acres with mountain views, because of a break up in marriage, has been stressing about finding a rental place, and the choices are not very good.

She finally secured herself a house in Monbulk, and it's an old 1950's style house with absolutely no improvement.
There is no room for a fridge, the rooms are all small, the venetian blinds don't work, and the asking is $420 a week  :o my friend is taking it. She has looked at a few, and in fact, hasn't even had a chance to look at many others at all because of the competition for renters trying to find a place to live in.

We have a rental in Woori Yallock (now that is even further away)...and it was never empty for long, 2 weeks at the most. We get $350 a week for that.

It just must be a very different situation in different areas for reasons such as where overseas investors buy up a lot of those houses to remain empty with no water usage shown in the graph.
I wonder, there may be a glut of empty houses, but is there a glut of rental houses?

My son and his fiance are renting in Prahran, small place with no carport driveway or garage or any sort. Just street parking. (I dislike that crowded sardine type living).
They are lucky to have it for a cheap $1600 per month.

But that is all I know as far as Melbourne metro and the outskirts where I live.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 8:23am:

Bobby. wrote on Jan 8th, 2016 at 6:59am: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 5:10pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 1:16pm: Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :( EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions. sir Nail is right - the house prices are already going down in many suburbs. Your old fibro dump in Adelaide should be sold to some sucker now. you believe anything day_nail tells you. because you are a gullible idiot. the property market has gone off the boil but prices are still rising which is not how a crash is normally defined.

yep - house prices only ever go up in australia or just plateau :D LOL

And so does the debt !!

---

demand for investment properties is increasing with the popularity of AirBNB on the increase ... people can make really good money on properties they would otherwise have not purchased.

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 9:17am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 8th, 2016 at 8:23am: Bobby. wrote on Jan 8th, 2016 at 6:59am: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 5:10pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 1:16pm: Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :( EVERYTHING is evidence of a bubble to you and has been for 15 years while the likes of you and pansi continue to make your failed predictions. sir Nail is right - the house prices are already going down in many suburbs. Your old fibro dump in Adelaide should be sold to some sucker now. you believe anything day_nail tells you. because you are a gullible idiot. the property market has gone off the boil but prices are still rising which is not how a crash is normally defined. The good news for Longweekend58 is that the price of fibro shacks, lean-tos and caves is rising.

Longy needs to sell that old fibro dump now while he can still get something for it.

Sir lastnail wrote on Jan 7^th, 2016 at 1:16pm:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:26pm: Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 12:17pm: If they're empty then they're not homes, are they - just flaccid  and fallow investments awaiting the tide of time to whittle them down to match sticks....... Its more than 5%. Some places as high as 16%. This is mostly apartments which means that as a percentage of apartments it is extremely high which portends a major fall in price if selling pressure emerges. It's definitely evidence of a bubble. The point is how many normal quarter acre blocks have been bulldozed down to make way for these cheap arse dolls houses :(

Yes sir Nail,
will Melbourne end up looking like this?



http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/151112162452-arcaid-awards-tan-lingfei-buildings-in-use-super-169.jpg

Sophia wrote on Jan 8^th, 2016 at 9:22am:

Sun Tzu wrote on Jan 7th, 2016 at 10:11am: It appears the numbers are higher than 5% and in some locations more than 10%. http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/l/j/2/h/j/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1449620866595.png Interesting, but all those suburbs are inner city, seems a lot were bought as investments, somewhere to pour money into, and within less than 15 kms from the centre of Melbourne is the way it seems to be favorable for any wealthier overseas investors, because they could, and were allowed to by our government. Which means they didn't have to rent it, or live in it. But does that mean there is a glut of rental properties, just because these houses are being remained as empty? I don't really know about the Melbourne metro area, but I do know this much, out here where I live, about an hour east of Melbourne, the Yarra Valley and the Dandenong Ranges, is a shortage of rentals, and my friend, whom had to sell her beautiful home on 5 acres with mountain views, because of a break up in marriage, has been stressing about finding a rental place, and the choices are not very good. She finally secured herself a house in Monbulk, and it's an old 1950's style house with absolutely no improvement. There is no room for a fridge, the rooms are all small, the venetian blinds don't work, and the asking is $420 a week  :o my friend is taking it. She has looked at a few, and in fact, hasn't even had a chance to look at many others at all because of the competition for renters trying to find a place to live in. We have a rental in Woori Yallock (now that is even further away)...and it was never empty for long, 2 weeks at the most. We get $350 a week for that. It just must be a very different situation in different areas for reasons such as where overseas investors buy up a lot of those houses to remain empty with no water usage shown in the graph. I wonder, there may be a glut of empty houses, but is there a glut of rental houses? My son and his fiance are renting in Prahran, small place with no carport driveway or garage or any sort. Just street parking. (I dislike that crowded sardine type living). They are lucky to have it for a cheap $1600 per month. But that is all I know as far as Melbourne metro and the outskirts where I live.

Lols ... Shitzu doesn't want to know your truth... just some manipulated specific areas pointing to a down turn.

Hardly a true scope of the greater Melbourne area.

He supports all this condensed housing where you can lean out the window & shake your neighbours hand ...

or more likely have a fist fight with them because

the closer together you put people the more likelihood of conflict .....

the making of future ghettos/slums neighbourhoods.