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Message started by Unforgiven on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm

Title: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Unforgiven on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm
Read it and weep.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/20/3682284/broken-climate-records-2014/

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by lee on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:58pm
Wow- Cyclone Marie - wind speed 93km/h was Cat 5? One lugger grounded.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/nt/Marie.shtml

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by innocentbystander. on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 9:38pm
Only socialism can save us now  :D

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Swagman on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:13pm

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm:
How the world's climate changed last year


About as many days as you worked............sweet F A     ;D

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Unforgiven on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:29pm

Swagman wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:13pm:

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm:
How the world's climate changed last year


About as many days as you worked............sweet F A     ;D


No arguments or facts in Swagman's pouch. Just inane rants.

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by The Grappler on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:51pm
Far Ken Cold.....

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Sir Bobby on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 11:03pm
forgiven for false information

namaste

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by The Grappler on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 11:15pm
Well - there is a small tree frog hibernating in the shower - loves the warmth inside and the humidity when the shower is going.

Even the frogs are calling 'Cold' this winter.

On the other hand I saw some magpies doing a mating dance in the air today and some midges in the air.... harbingers of a good Spring.  Not to mention the three Black Cockatoes flying West.... harbinger of rain.....

I'll be putting out some early tomatoes and other stuff.... hoping for no late frosts.... and my peas and snow peas are a little slow despite rain.......

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by The Grappler on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 11:20pm

innocentbystander. wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 9:38pm:
Only socialism can save us now  :D


The only thing that will save us is providing for ourselves as much as possible....... and that might well incorporate community gardens...

Think of it this way - if you have land and can grow stuff that is good and fresh - will that not save you from the vicissitudes of hungry children who grow up to be predators without a cause and without a hope?

Would you not prefer peace and harmony in your locality through sharing of goods and benefits in return for work and input - than the current way we have of dogs eating dogs in the moonlight?

"dogs in the moonlight" - a reference to dogs eating human corpses in African countries..... corpses that lie in the streets...

'keep those mutts away from me'.....

Paul Simon is a  very prescient writer of songs....

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Unforgiven on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 2:32pm
June was hottest month on record since inception of statistics in 1880.

http://www.ledgergazette.com/june-2015-was-hottest-in-135-years-scientists/13544/


Quote:
The past month was the hottest June on record since statistics started being kept in 1880, and the first six months of 2015 have seen record warmth, reported the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.




The combined average global temperature for June was 61.5 degrees Fahrenheit, about 1.6 °F above the 20th-century average and 0.22 °F higher than the previous record, set past year, NOAA’s latest calculations show. This keep 2015 easily on pace to be the warmest year on record globally.

The month of June proved to be warm in almost every part of the world with exceptional heat in Spain, parts of Asia, Austria, Australia and South America. The old record was June of 2014, which averaged 0.76 degrees above the average.

The federal agency also last week published its State of the Climate, with more detailed information on everything from sea level rise to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, which has become a form of climate pollution. NOAA reports that 14 of the 15 warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, with many of them happening during years that were not affected by El Nino.

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by lee on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 3:27pm
Yes, yes. It has been explained that NOOA now uses ERSST v4, taken from the Karl et al 2015 paper. The paper has a self-admitted statistical significance of 10% and merged noisy ships' data to pristine buoy data. The ships' data has a margin of error of +/-1.7C.

BTW - 10% statistical significance is out in purely bullcrap territory.

'

    A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

    A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

    p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-data.html

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Swagman on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 4:17pm

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:29pm:

Swagman wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:13pm:

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm:
How the world's climate changed last year


About as many days as you worked............sweet F A     ;D


No arguments or facts in Swagman's pouch. Just inane rants.


Just like the AGWT  :D

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by oHTheStenchofCopperInternet on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 5:10pm

innocentbystander. wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 9:38pm:
Only socialism can save us now  :D

Money is socialism  ;) ;)

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by oHTheStenchofCopperInternet on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 5:14pm

Swagman wrote on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 4:17pm:

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:29pm:

Swagman wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 10:13pm:

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm:
How the world's climate changed last year


About as many days as you worked............sweet F A     ;D


No arguments or facts in Swagman's pouch. Just inane rants.


Just like the AGWT  :D

Why do Oil wars justify the pursuit of Jevons Paradox ??

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Unforgiven on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 5:23pm

lee wrote on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 3:27pm:
Yes, yes. It has been explained that NOOA now uses ERSST v4, taken from the Karl et al 2015 paper. The paper has a self-admitted statistical significance of 10% and merged noisy ships' data to pristine buoy data. The ships' data has a margin of error of +/-1.7C.

BTW - 10% statistical significance is out in purely bullcrap territory.

'

    A small p-value (typically ≤ 0.05) indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, so you reject the null hypothesis.

    A large p-value (> 0.05) indicates weak evidence against the null hypothesis, so you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

    p-values very close to the cutoff (0.05) are considered to be marginal (could go either way). Always report the p-value so your readers can draw their own conclusions.'

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/what-a-pvalue-tells-you-about-statistical-data.html


You have an intellect equal to that of Einstein in his present condition.

Below is an article which disproves your high school maths contentions. The article determines that global warming

https://www.mcgill.ca/channels/news/global-warming-just-giant-natural-fluctuation-235236


Quote:
Lovejoy’s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability. His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.”

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by lee on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 5:31pm

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 5:23pm:
His conclusion: the natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled out “with confidence levels great than 99%, and most likely greater than 99.9%.”


You seem confused.

I suggest you read -

'Significance Testing and Confidence Intervals'

http://onlinestatbook.com/2/logic_of_hypothesis_testing/sign_conf.html

Title: Re: How the world's climate changed last year
Post by Ajax on Jul 23rd, 2015 at 5:43pm

Unforgiven wrote on Jul 22nd, 2015 at 6:36pm:
Read it and weep.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/20/3682284/broken-climate-records-2014/


WOULD HAVE HAPPENED REGARDLESS.....!!!!

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