Labor up, bring on the election Phony Tony!

Just like in the UK

miketrees wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 8:18am:

Just like in the UK

What, UKIP and SNP are is running?

miketrees wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 8:18am:

Just like in the UK

nothing like the UK.

Australia does not have a 'first past the post" phoney democracy system.

I would not be hoping for an election now.

ALP do not lead by anywhere near enough. The thing is, people aren't pissed off enough with Tony. The polls should be worse, going by the lies,  broken promises and the fact that certain items from last years "unfair" budget are still on the table.

... and the fact he's a wanker.

But the polls are not bad enough. Shorten has not grabbed command. He's had it handed to him on a silver platter but he just hasn't captured it.

I fear an early election.

Long will be along shortly to sort out this confusion. Fairfax have the coalition in a  better position but longy claims the only poll worth it's weight is News lmd, oh the conundrum.
The one thing that has been constant since the last election is that NO poll, NOT ONE, since three weeks after the last election has had The Abbott government in the lead. This has never happened before that a new government were so hated so early by so many.
Abbott is Labor's best hope but unfortunately for the country we look like getting two governments in a row that didn't deserve to win but they were just less hated than the incumbent.

miketrees wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 8:18am:

Just like in the UK

Figures from UK shamocracy:

Voter turnout = 30.6 million

Total Conservative votes = 11.3 million (37%)
Total Conservative seat in parliament =  330 (51%)

Total UKIP vote = 3.9 million (12%)
Total UKIP seats = 1 (0.3%)

Total Scot. Nationalist vote = 1.5 million (5%)
Total Scot. Nationalist seats = 59 (9%)

Julius Abbott wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 12:11pm:

miketrees wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 8:18am: Just like in the UK Figures from UK shamocracy: Voter turnout = 30.6 million Total Conservative votes = 11.3 million (37%) Total Conservative seat in parliament =  330 (51%) Total UKIP vote = 3.9 million (12%) Total UKIP seats = 1 (0.3%) Total Scot. Nationalist vote = 1.5 million (5%) Total Scot. Nationalist seats = 59 (9%)

What was the total Labour vote? The UK system is spastic.

funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead.

the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping.

still want an election?

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:08pm:

funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election?

It's Newspoll that has the government further behind than Fairfax, with absolutely NO pol having the government ahead since three weeks after the last election. Keep up the charade, Einstein. ;D ;D ;D thanks for yet another laugh, AT YOU. ;D ;D ;D

skippy. wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 12:49pm:

Julius Abbott wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 12:11pm: miketrees wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 8:18am: Just like in the UK Figures from UK shamocracy: Voter turnout = 30.6 million Total Conservative votes = 11.3 million (37%) Total Conservative seat in parliament =  330 (51%) Total UKIP vote = 3.9 million (12%) Total UKIP seats = 1 (0.3%) Total Scot. Nationalist vote = 1.5 million (5%) Total Scot. Nationalist seats = 59 (9%) What was the total Labour vote? The UK system is spastic.

The Labour votes were most representative but they still got quite a bit more seats than would be fair.

Labour total vote = 9.3 million votes (30%)
Labour seats = 232 seats (36%)

Julius Abbott wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:31pm:

skippy. wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 12:49pm: Julius Abbott wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 12:11pm: miketrees wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 8:18am: Just like in the UK Figures from UK shamocracy: Voter turnout = 30.6 million Total Conservative votes = 11.3 million (37%) Total Conservative seat in parliament =  330 (51%) Total UKIP vote = 3.9 million (12%) Total UKIP seats = 1 (0.3%) Total Scot. Nationalist vote = 1.5 million (5%) Total Scot. Nationalist seats = 59 (9%) What was the total Labour vote? The UK system is spastic. The Labour votes were most representative but they still got quite a bit more seats than would be fair. Labour total vote = 9.3 million votes (30%) Labour seats = 232 seats (36%)

So the conservatives only got 7% more of the vote than Labour yet picked up over a hundred seats more, sounds spastic to me.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:08pm:

funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election?

Gee Longy, your beloved Newspoll - you know the one true poll according to you - says the opposite - libs are down one point from last one. Funny how for once the right-tards aren't quoting newspoll this week as gospel.

Ipsos have always slanted towards the coalition, so their result is not really surprising.

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:47pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:08pm: funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election? Gee Longy, your beloved Newspoll - you know the one true poll according to you - says the opposite - libs are down one point from last one. Funny how for once the right-tards aren't quoting newspoll this week as gospel. Ipsos have always slanted towards the coalition, so their result is not really surprising.

I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda.

Imagine what it would be like if you clowns could find a consistent non-ideological viewpoint on ANYTHING?

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:51pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:47pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:08pm: funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election? Gee Longy, your beloved Newspoll - you know the one true poll according to you - says the opposite - libs are down one point from last one. Funny how for once the right-tards aren't quoting newspoll this week as gospel. Ipsos have always slanted towards the coalition, so their result is not really surprising. I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda. Imagine what it would be like if you clowns could find a consistent non-ideological viewpoint on ANYTHING?

"You're black", said the pot to the kettle ...

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:51pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:47pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:08pm: funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election? Gee Longy, your beloved Newspoll - you know the one true poll according to you - says the opposite - libs are down one point from last one. Funny how for once the right-tards aren't quoting newspoll this week as gospel. Ipsos have always slanted towards the coalition, so their result is not really surprising. I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda. Imagine what it would be like if you clowns could find a consistent non-ideological viewpoint on ANYTHING?

Done, the government have not won ONE POLL SINCE THREE WEEKS AFTER the LAST ELECTION, now that consistent. ;D ;D
Longy,the  gift that keeps on giving. ;D ;D ;D

Must be the TWITTER Generation logged on here.
Only Twits use Twitter, no attention span.
How many times must you all be told, the only real poll, the only one worth quoting is the election result.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:51pm:

I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda

Actually I don't pay much credence to any individual poll. I only draw conclusions when I look at polling trends - and the trend for the last 15 months or so has been very clear. Also, I'll wait for a few more 'budget' polls before I draw any conclusions about how the budget has affected the government's performance.

Grendel wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:01pm:

Must be the TWITTER Generation logged on here. Only Twits use Twitter, no attention span. How many times must you all be told, the only real poll, the only one worth quoting is the election result.

Polls generally get a bad press. However there is no doubt that they are an important guage for how the government is performing. Government's undeniably react to the polls in terms of policy direction. I actually think this is a good thing in terms of democracy.

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:55pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:51pm: polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:47pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:08pm: funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election? Gee Longy, your beloved Newspoll - you know the one true poll according to you - says the opposite - libs are down one point from last one. Funny how for once the right-tards aren't quoting newspoll this week as gospel. Ipsos have always slanted towards the coalition, so their result is not really surprising. I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda. Imagine what it would be like if you clowns could find a consistent non-ideological viewpoint on ANYTHING? "You're black", said the pot to the kettle ...

except - you lying toad - I have always stated that Galaxy and Newspoll are to be preferred above others on the basis of their historical accuracy.  I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results.

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:08pm:

Grendel wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:01pm: Must be the TWITTER Generation logged on here. Only Twits use Twitter, no attention span. How many times must you all be told, the only real poll, the only one worth quoting is the election result. Polls generally get a bad press. However there is no doubt that they are an important guage for how the government is performing. Government's undeniably react to the polls in terms of policy direction. I actually think this is a good thing in terms of democracy.

Polls deservedly get bad press.
The recent UK one's a prime example.
I'm guessing you are active on Twitter?

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:16pm:

I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results.

If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him.

Grendel wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:18pm:

Polls deservedly get bad press. The recent UK one's a prime example. I'm guessing you are active on Twitter?

The recent UK one's are a bad example. I suspect the FPTP system makes polling a whole different kettle of fish. We know from history that UK polls are unreliable. Australia on the other hand has been remarkably reliable in predicting pretty much every election in living history (as for QLD, the polls actually predicted a hung parliament, but was wayward when using predictive preferences). And if the pollies know that these polls can be relied upon, then they shape their policies around them - which is exactly how democracy should be.

And I've never touched twitter.

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:04pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:51pm: I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda Actually I don't pay much credence to any individual poll. I only draw conclusions when I look at polling trends - and the trend for the last 15 months or so has been very clear. Also, I'll wait for a few more 'budget' polls before I draw any conclusions about how the budget has affected the government's performance.

its the proper response.  Its polling trends and consensus from other polls that give the true answer.  But my point is that Labor's lead is small numerically and very weak politically.  Shorten is a truly terrible leader and has no answer to Abbotts campaigning.  If Labor is less than 4 points in the lead come election time, they are probably toast.

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:26pm:

Grendel wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:18pm: Polls deservedly get bad press. The recent UK one's a prime example. I'm guessing you are active on Twitter? The recent UK one's are a bad example. I suspect the FPTP system makes polling a whole different kettle of fish. We know from history that UK polls are unreliable. Australia on the other hand has been remarkably reliable in predicting pretty much every election in living history (as for QLD, the polls actually predicted a hung parliament, but was wayward when using predictive preferences). And if the pollies know that these polls can be relied upon, then they shape their policies around them - which is exactly how democracy should be. And I've never touched twitter.

voluntary voting is what messes with polls.  It would be nice to think that the number of people who don't actually vote (but feature in polls) have the same voting intentions than those that do, but history shows that it is very volatile.  American political strategists can actually predict the outcomes of contests on the basis of the weather which affects somem sub groups more than others.

All in all, it is just another factor in favour of compulsory voting.  The idea that a govt can be formed on the basis of weather is abhorrent.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:15pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:04pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:51pm: I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda Actually I don't pay much credence to any individual poll. I only draw conclusions when I look at polling trends - and the trend for the last 15 months or so has been very clear. Also, I'll wait for a few more 'budget' polls before I draw any conclusions about how the budget has affected the government's performance. its the proper response.  Its polling trends and consensus from other polls that give the true answer.  But my point is that Labor's lead is small numerically and very weak politically.  Shorten is a truly terrible leader and has no answer to Abbotts campaigning.  If Labor is less than 4 points in the lead come election time, they are probably toast.

I love how you see, "Tonys almost as liked" or "Shortens almost as hated" as something to crow about.

Frankly my personal opinion is that most of the electorate a fed up with politics in this country & if a goat was put for PM it would be polling close to 80%.

Anyway the fact that he received a bounce from this budget just proves the hip pocket nerve is what Australians care about.

We know the cost of everything & the value of NOTHING!!!

What a disgustingly shallow nation we have become.

Dsmithy70 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:27pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 4:15pm: polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:04pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:51pm: I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda Actually I don't pay much credence to any individual poll. I only draw conclusions when I look at polling trends - and the trend for the last 15 months or so has been very clear. Also, I'll wait for a few more 'budget' polls before I draw any conclusions about how the budget has affected the government's performance. its the proper response.  Its polling trends and consensus from other polls that give the true answer.  But my point is that Labor's lead is small numerically and very weak politically.  Shorten is a truly terrible leader and has no answer to Abbotts campaigning.  If Labor is less than 4 points in the lead come election time, they are probably toast. I love how you see, "Tonys almost as liked" or "Shortens almost as hated" as something to crow about. Frankly my personal opinion is that most of the electorate a fed up with politics in this country & if a goat was put for PM it would be polling close to 80%. Anyway the fact that he received a bounce from this budget just proves the hip pocket nerve is what Australians care about. We know the cost of everything & the value of NOTHING!!! What a disgustingly shallow nation we have become.

I agree in large measure.  VOters in this country DEMAND to have their vote bought, not earned.  GOod policy that will cost us in the short term has next to no chance of being implemented. Witness the outrage - the OUTRAGE - over a proposed $10 per year increase in the price of petrol or the 'massive' maxime co-payment of $70 per year.

the problem with booms and extended economic growth is the age of entirlement and the expectation that good times are always coming and therefore a RIGHT.  perhaps the occasional recession performs a social service as much as an economic one. Maybe the GFC shouldn't have been protected against so much and a small recession permitted.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:35pm:

Witness the outrage - the OUTRAGE - over a proposed $10 per year increase in the price of petrol or the 'massive' maxime co-payment of $70 per year.

I like talking politics with you, we have a long history some 10+ years now.

Whilst I become ever more cynical & bitter, you become more delusional as demonstrated by the above.

Did you miss the massive outrage at a small increase to prices that was in most cases over compensated for?

No you didn't miss it, in fact you were driving on of the buses to Canberra.

Now of course you'll say Gillard ruled out a carbon tax hence the outrage, yet I'm sure Tony promised no new taxes & no changes to Medicare.

But WHATEVER.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:15pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:04pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 1:51pm: I am just enjoying the sight of your hypocrites ignoring the Fairfax poll - which you usually quote despites it always showing labor in a better light - because Newspoll suits your agenda Actually I don't pay much credence to any individual poll. I only draw conclusions when I look at polling trends - and the trend for the last 15 months or so has been very clear. Also, I'll wait for a few more 'budget' polls before I draw any conclusions about how the budget has affected the government's performance. its the proper response.  Its polling trends and consensus from other polls that give the true answer.  But my point is that Labor's lead is small numerically and very weak politically.  Shorten is a truly terrible leader and has no answer to Abbotts campaigninIg.  If Labor is less than 4 points in the lead come election time, they are probably toast.

Abbott is the worst PM in this countries  history, as all the polls confirm. Even McMahon was less hated and more competent and that really is saying something.
Abbott nearly got rolled just a year into his PMship and very well could be rolled before we go back to the polls. In comparison  to Abbott even Rudd looks brilliant.
Only yesterday the biggest Liberal party fan girl on this site was singing the praises of a Morrison takeover. The coalition are f,,,,d under Abbott  I hope they keep the women basher in the top job, I can't wait to see him belted with cricket bats come election time.

Yes, Skipy, but he is.a grown-up, you have to admit that.

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:21pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:16pm: I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results. If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him.

Indeed ... all opinion polls are just random samples. Getting all worked up about a random sample is rather meaningless.

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

All we can deduce from this is that the Coalition may have improved their standing slightly. I doubt very much that the Coalition would be so foolhardy as to call an early election on the basis of one Ipsos poll. Unlike their fanbois, they look at ALL the polling, including private opinion polling that we don't usually get to see. The polling aggregate would say quite clearly that an early election would be unwise.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 1:08pm:

funny that you boofheads who live and breathe on Fairfax polls that show Abbott in the lead. the libs are rising in the polls and labor is dropping. still want an election?

;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D

and he actually believes he's smarter than everyone else

;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 2:26pm:

Grendel wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:18pm: Polls deservedly get bad press. The recent UK one's a prime example. I'm guessing you are active on Twitter? The recent UK one's are a bad example. I suspect the FPTP system makes polling a whole different kettle of fish. We know from history that UK polls are unreliable. Australia on the other hand has been remarkably reliable in predicting pretty much every election in living history (as for QLD, the polls actually predicted a hung parliament, but was wayward when using predictive preferences). And if the pollies know that these polls can be relied upon, then they shape their policies around them - which is exactly how democracy should be. And I've never touched twitter.

Really?  Well it's certainly made for people like you.
BTW All political polls fit the bill.
Only an election is a true poll, the rest are lucky dips, some are even purposely loaded to give a particular outcome so puhlease do stop with the polling crap and excuses for more biased comments eh.

I've already commented on the decline in our polity and idiots who do what you suggest are the bottom of the barrel as far as pollies go.

However CIR would be a more realistic way to gauge public reaction to policy and be much more meaningful and useful.

Dsmithy70 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 4:49pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 4:35pm: Witness the outrage - the OUTRAGE - over a proposed $10 per year increase in the price of petrol or the 'massive' maxime co-payment of $70 per year. I like talking politics with you, we have a long history some 10+ years now. Whilst I become ever more cynical & bitter, you become more delusional as demonstrated by the above. Did you miss the massive outrage at a small increase to prices that was in most cases over compensated for? No you didn't miss it, in fact you were driving on of the buses to Canberra. Now of course you'll say Gillard ruled out a carbon tax hence the outrage, yet I'm sure Tony promised no new taxes & no changes to Medicare. But WHATEVER.

TEN DOLLARS



A YEAR



And this causes outrage? 

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:21pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:16pm: I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results. If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him. Indeed ... all opinion polls are just random samples. Getting all worked up about a random sample is rather meaningless. We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51. All we can deduce from this is that the Coalition may have improved their standing slightly. I doubt very much that the Coalition would be so foolhardy as to call an early election on the basis of one Ipsos poll. Unlike their fanbois, they look at ALL the polling, including private opinion polling that we don't usually get to see. The polling aggregate would say quite clearly that an early election would be unwise.

a conclusion that would be supported by a majority of intelligent and rational people.  Which of course includes not many people from here. after all, the newspoll as 50/50 and Fairfax was 48/52, this identical thread would refer to Fairfax instead.

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 11:39pm:

Dsmithy70 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 4:49pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 4:35pm: Witness the outrage - the OUTRAGE - over a proposed $10 per year increase in the price of petrol or the 'massive' maxime co-payment of $70 per year. I like talking politics with you, we have a long history some 10+ years now. Whilst I become ever more cynical & bitter, you become more delusional as demonstrated by the above. Did you miss the massive outrage at a small increase to prices that was in most cases over compensated for? No you didn't miss it, in fact you were driving on of the buses to Canberra. Now of course you'll say Gillard ruled out a carbon tax hence the outrage, yet I'm sure Tony promised no new taxes & no changes to Medicare. But WHATEVER. TEN DOLLARS A YEAR And this causes outrage?

This is how much my electricity bill went up under Labor.

SHAME LABOR SHAME

longweekend58 wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 11:42pm:

Bam wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 5:45pm: polite_gandalf wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:21pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 2:16pm: I am just enjoying you hypocrites picking and choosing results. If you bothered taking any notice at all to Bam's posting history you'd know straight away that no one has pointed out the futility of taking out polls in isolation more than him. Indeed ... all opinion polls are just random samples. Getting all worked up about a random sample is rather meaningless. We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51. All we can deduce from this is that the Coalition may have improved their standing slightly. I doubt very much that the Coalition would be so foolhardy as to call an early election on the basis of one Ipsos poll. Unlike their fanbois, they look at ALL the polling, including private opinion polling that we don't usually get to see. The polling aggregate would say quite clearly that an early election would be unwise. a conclusion that would be supported by a majority of intelligent and rational people.  Which of course includes not many people from here. after all, the newspoll as 50/50 and Fairfax was 48/52, this identical thread would refer to Fairfax instead.

LOL longliar still at it.

---

If I were the coalition, I would sit tight, and wait to see how much of the budget gets through.  Even just most gets through, then its still better than last year when most key measures were rejected.  That would at least build some confidence in th Coalition ranks, and have something to talk about - e.g. support business etc.   Because come next election, talks about mining tax and carbon tax would not buy much votes.

My guess, is that the government would wait and see what happen to the poll.  If it turns better, and improves, then an early election is likely around Novemember.  However, if its not, the government will try for a more generous budget next year, with delay to return to surplus - a sort of Howard style vote buying - with deals so sweet that even Labor would not reject, and call an snap election at the honeymoon period. 

The government doesn't want another budget before the election - IMO.

polite_gandalf wrote on May 19^th, 2015 at 3:25pm:

The government doesn't want another budget before the election - IMO.

This is a no-nonsense, no-excuses government, G - the grown-ups back in charge, sport and terrorism back on the front pages again.

Under-promise and over-deliver, that's Mr Abbott's motto. End the toxic chaos, fix the budget emergency, say what you'll do and do what you say. Easy.

Why would we want another budget? Our fiscal trajectory is finally back on track. If the leftards want to oppose every little thing, that's their problem. Mr Abbott is quietly fixing Labor's mess and bringing home the bacon.

And thank heavens for that.

Bam wrote on May 18^th, 2015 at 5:45pm:

We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51.

As I predicted, Essential has reported today with 2PP figures of 48 (Coalition) 52 (ALP).

Primary votes: Coalition 41, ALP 40, Greens 10, PUP 1, Others 8.

2PP is calculated using the 2013 election preferences, so take these 2PP numbers with a little grain of salt.

Bam wrote on May 19^th, 2015 at 7:07pm:

Bam wrote on May 18th, 2015 at 5:45pm: We've had five post-budget polls in the past week producing results of 47 (Coalition)-53 (ALP) (ReachTel), 48-52 (Galaxy), 47-53 (Newspoll), 50-50 (Fairfax-Ipsos) and 49-51 (Morgan). Essential is due to report tomorrow, and will probably come in at 48-52 or 49-51. As I predicted, Essential has reported today with 2PP figures of 48 (Coalition) 52 (ALP). Primary votes: Coalition 41, ALP 40, Greens 10, PUP 1, Others 8. 2PP is calculated using the 2013 election preferences, so take these 2PP numbers with a little grain of salt.

That " other" is the elephant in the room. Labor used to be able to pull off an election victory if it got around 38% primary but it all depends on how well the Greens do as they throw about 85% of their preferences Labor's way. A couple of elections ago 40 primary would have been sweat but now they probably need that, at least. Labor are just lucky coalition numbers are dismal too.