I re-post the following here, as it is/should be relevant, to all Politicians & their "supporters"!


perceptions_now wrote on Jan 14^th, 2015 at 1:04pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 3rd, 2015 at 11:54am: This Is Why The Fed Is Between A Rock And A Hard Place The Fed is about to raise interest rates sometime in 2015 (for the first time in 6 years), and that could be trouble for stocks just as it was after the ending QE-1, and QE-2. On the other hand, if they don't raise rates it would only be based on failed QE policies that were supposed to revive the economy. This is the incredible dilemma that the Fed faces in the coming year. All of the aforementioned factors are screaming "deflation." Thus far the market has not heard the message. But we are convinced that it will be heard, and when it does, we believe the U.S. stock market will decline precipitously. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2791685-this-is-why-the-fed-is-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place?ifp=0 ======================================================= I doubt, we will see the US FedRes raise rates! But, if they do get in first, then they will back out quickly, as Share Markets start to Decline! World Bank cuts global economic outlook despite oil price drop The World Bank on Tuesday lowered its global growth forecast for 2015 and next year due to disappointing economic prospects in the euro zone, Japan and some major emerging economies that offset the benefit of lower oil prices. "The global economy is at a disconcerting juncture," World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu told reporters. "It is as challenging a moment as it gets for economic forecasting." The world economy has been more sluggish than expected since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. The World Bank said strong growth prospects in the United States and Britain separated them from other rich nations, including members of the euro zone and Japan, which continue to face anemic economies and deflation fears. "The global economy is running on a single engine, ... the American one," Basu said. "This does not make for a rosy outlook for the world." Among emerging markets, Brazil and Russia in particular weighed on the bank's global growth predictions, along with China, which is in a managed slowdown as it transitions away from an investment-led growth model. The immediate impact of lower crude prices was limited to a 0.1 percentage point boost to the global outlook this year, the World Bank said. Falling oil prices could also depress inflation around the world. Fears of deflation, along with overall gloomier global prospects and stagnant U.S. wages, could encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more slowly than anticipated, Basu said. http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/13/worldbank-economy-idINKBN0KM2AG20150113 ====================================================== As previously stated, I can not see the FedRes raising interest rates & if it tried, it would be forced to quickly back off, as Share markets would react adversely!  Btw, in saying "The global economy is at a disconcerting juncture," World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu told reporters. "It is as challenging a moment as it gets for economic forecasting.", it was only confirming, that they (the World Bank), other CB's & Governments have no idea "how to bring back the "old Economy" AND THE FACT IS THEY WON'T & CAN'T. Finally, they do confirm that "this time is different" , with the Global Economy continuing to be more sluggish than usual, But I strongly suspect that their reference to "strong growth prospects in the United States" is more a matter of "wishing & hoping", rather than anything based in fact!

Normally, share market Declines are followed by a bounce, the Economy also bounces and "normality" returns, all in a fairly quick succession!

But, as I said previously, "this time is different" and the All Ords closed today at 5332, which is a level first achieved in October 2006.

So, for the many who have been told the best strategy is to "Buy & Hold Shares", you should legitimately ask -
WHY HAVE MY SHARES NOT EXPERIENCED ANY GROWTH IN 8 YEARS?

And, given my expectations of a 50-90% Decline coming shortly, I would be saying a little more than simply "What happened to the Recovery"?    

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#symbol=^AORD;range=

What have both sides of Politics told you? 
They haven't told you the truth!

When looking at Economics there are many factors, which should be included in considerations.

Following are some of those factors and I would note that whilst Australia does have a large increase in its Debt to GDP, that is an effect of starting from a relatively low starting point, compared to the other countries.

So, whilst the Growth rate is higher, both the start & finish points are much lower and the straight out GDP Growth is also considerably higher! 

It should also be noted that Australia increased its GDP by 110%, whilst only increasing its Debt to GDP ratio by 10%.

However,the USA had only a 21% increase in its GDP, but its Debt to GDP ratio jumped by 38% and the UK GDP increased by only 1.6%, whilst its Debt to GDP ratio jumped by 47%. Obviously, these sort of results can not continue & the piper will require payment, at some point, in the not too distant future!

The thing is, one must impose these factors, as well as others such as Demographics, Energy (Supply & Pricing) & Climate Change, when considering what will happen with Local & Global Economics, for the foreseeable future and for these and reasons, the future of Global/Local Shares & general Economics are set for some serious downtime in the years ahead, irrespective of which Political Party is in Power & irrespective of which Party you may "support".!


List of countries, by Debt to GDP %

Country        2007     2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014       
USA              63.9      64.8     76        87.1     95.2     99.4     100.1   101.53    
Canada         70.3     66.5      71.3     81.3     83.1     83.5     88.1     89.1      
Euro Area     68.5      66.2     70.1     80.0     83.7     85.8     89.0     90.9         
UK                43.4      44.5     52.3     67.1     78.4     84.3     89.1     90.6         
France          63.7      63.9     68.2     79.2     81.5     85.0     89.2     92.2         
Germany      67.6      64.9     66.8     74.5     80.3     77.6     79.0     76.9       
Italy              106.6    103.6   106.1  116.4    119.3   120.7   127.0   132.6      
Japan            172.1    167.0   174.1  194.1    200.0   211.7   218.8   227.20    
Australia       10.0      9.7       11.8    16.9      20.4    22.9      27.16   20.48      


List of countries, by GDP in $Billions/% Growth to L/Y

Country        2007                 2008            2009                2010            2011                2012            2013            2014            Increase 2007-2014
USA              13,857-N/A      14,480/4.5    14,720/1.6     14,418/-2     14,958/3.7      15,534/4      16,245/4.5    16,800/3.4  21%
Canada        1,310-N/A        1,458/11        1,542/5.7      1,371/-11     1,614/18         1,779/10      1,821/2        1,825/0       39%
Euro Area     10,743-N/A      12,319/15      13,581/10     12,419/-9     12,165/-2       13,128/8      12,212/-7     12,749/4     19%   
UK                2.483-N/A        2,857/15        2,688/-6        2,208/-18     2,295/4          2,462/7        2,461/0         2,522/2      1.6%    
France          2,256-N/A        2,582/14        2,831/10       2,619/-8       2,565/-2         2,782/8        2,611/-6       2,734/5       21%       
Germany      2,903-N/A        3,324/15        3,624/9         3,298/1.7      3,304/0          3,628/11      3,426/-6       3,635/6       25%
Italy              1,873-N/A        2,127/14        2,307/8         2,111/-9       2,055/-3         2,196/7        2,103/-4       2,071/-1.5   11%
Japan            4,360-N/A        4,360/0          4,850/11       5,035/4        5,495/9          5,905/7        5,938/-0.5     4,901/-17   12%
Australia      745-N/A            850/11           1052/24        923/-12        1,138/23        1,384/22      1,532/11      1,561/2       110%    

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp

Note: I can not vouch for the accuracy of these figures, but they do at least come from the same site, so if there are errors, then hopefully they are consistent.
That said, all of the Debt to GDP figures, do seem too low, to varying degrees!

There will be no recovery, not for decades.

As a matter of fact...................

http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/xk/ifphwS7v-Kw9w4pBErrrmXz69m/www.thaivisa.com/static.thaivisa.com/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/hit-the-fan.gif.pagespeed.ce.6UelFDbFNJLQmQhnM4hM.gif

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 7:29am:

There will be no recovery, not for decades. As a matter of fact................... http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/xk/ifphwS7v-Kw9w4pBErrrmXz69m/www.thaivisa.com/static.thaivisa.com/forum//public/style_emoticons/default/hit-the-fan.gif.pagespeed.ce.6UelFDbFNJLQmQhnM4hM.gif

Well, whilst I would not want to interfere with "Longy's beliefs", unfortunately it is pretty clear that there is no recovery & there won't be for quite some time and that is what "the facts" are saying!

Also unfortunately, the major Political Party's in Australia, whilst they have both done "a better job" than most overseas Politicians, they still didn't do anywhere near enough & neither of them are doing the Australian Public any favors, by NO TELLING US THE TRUTH, WHICH BOTH MUST NOW KNOW AND BOTH "SHOULD" HAVE KNOWN, FOR QUITE SOME TIME!

(down at the Budget Hospital)...

"Mrs Australia - I have some sad news.  It appears your babies were still born, and the survivor is struggling. Both Budget and Recovery have passed on, and Abbott Government is on life support."

Several issues ariuse from reading the early posts.

One is that, as long stated in the Grappler Manifesto - the 'global economy' is a myth and a failed proposition from Day One, since it offshores virtually everything into the hands of offshore cartels with little to no tax and other allegiance to any one country, and thus have a host of evasive moves to avoid tax etc.  At the same time, the offshoring of jobs and resources and the utter lack of infrastructure and genuine investment input into countries via infrastructure that counts, is destroying every country in the world for the benefit of a few.

We are ALL 'Third World' under this regime of non-responsible and non-responsive vultures.

This is the Land of The Robber Barons writ large and anew.

Secondly, a comparison of Australia in terms with GDP/debt, with other and much more populous countries with an entirely different infrastructure setup, is hazardous. For example, our genuine manufacturing, unlike say Germany's, is miniscule, and thus our fabled (Julia Gillard - 'Asian will become consumers of high quality finished goods' - inferring that somehow we will feed that market  ;D  - a laughable proposition that many fell for and purest rhetoric) 'production' is limited almost entirely to resources - thus making of us not a First World country, but a Third World one (with the beggars some of the scenery).

Ergo simple comparisons on the basis of Debt/GDP are fraught with peril and a finer analysis is needed.  (just saying - not criticising).

Further, when far too much of 'GDP' ends up in the hands of a few individuals and organisations (including government with its voracious appetite for more and more taxes while playing Oliver Twist in Armani), and there is not a reasonably even spread of incomes across the community, the economy this GDP feeds is wrongly based, and rather than becoming a national vehicle for any potential recovery, has become instead an enrichment process for the few 'insiders' (again), a bandwagon onto which our politicians, rather than serving the people, leap with gay abandon and almost in entirety.

It is no great secret that government pork-barreling exercises from BOTH sides of the Tag Team that involve BILLIONS, such as childcare, privatisation and so forth... draw the families and friends of politicians like blowflies to a fat barbecue, a form of the most insidious corruption in history and absolutely in line with the worst excesses of many failed past government styles, including Nazism, Marcosism, and every other essentially Peasant in Armani government in history.

Probably plenty of other comment... but I'm running out of breath and I'm cooking up nectarine jam.... fruit split from too much rain this year.

Recovery...from a capitalist standpoint even we see there is no real Recovery, and we are in for a great depression so large it will being down nation states,

We have abandon capitalism, our economy more looks like a fascists economy, a national socialism economy where what left of the free market is now manipulated by the state for the benefit of big business or unions, (instead of the state regulating the free market to keep it fair and free)

We haven't yet regulated our banks properly nor have to stopped the reason why the GFC started. We have an expanding welfare system which within itself isn't a bad thing, but with few jobs and business finding it harder to pay higher wages with increase tax's and expand, things isn't looking up.

Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. we have huge government debt as well as private debt, and like Argentina in 2014, Dominican Republic  in 2005, India in 1972, when did hits a tipping out, its a fast down hill till you are forced to default.

As an aside - one of my biggest beefs with La Gillard was that inane comment -

"Asians will become consumers of high quality finished products!"

- phrased and clearly intended to put across to we peons the idea that we will ride the crest of some wave of high-tech and high quality export to Asia... nothing could be and indeed was further from the truth.

That one stands head  and shoulders above even the ridiculous 'misogyny' campaign, which may have impressed little girlies in wool hats at Malbun and Syd-eney universities etc - but did not one thing of value for this country and those totally uninterested in the evils, inanity, insanity, posturing, trumped-up issues, favouritism/preference, discrimination, and rhetoric of 'feminism'.

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 1:00pm:

As an aside - one of my biggest beefs with La Gillard was that inane comment, phrased and clearly intended to put across to we peons the idea that we will ride the crest of some wave of high-tech and high quality export to Asia... nothing could be and indeed was further from the truth. That one stands head  and shoulders above even the ridiculous 'misogyny' campaign, which may have impressed little girlies in wool hats at Malbun and Syd-eney universities etc - but did not one thing of value for this country and those totally uninterested in the evils, inanity, insanity, posturing, trumped-up issues, favouritism/preference, discrimination, and rhetoric of 'feminism'.

Tasmania has huge potential to feed Asia, Alone we could meet most of Australia's green food demands, but there are problems..

however there a two problems. 1) Government, Government intervention in the free market undercutting our products for another nations products for short term benefits and regulation which makes it incredibly tough to set up any new trading deal between famers and suppliers in Asia as extremely difficult in not impossible at times, as well as enough red tape to make a highly profitable trade to become a unprofitable trade , and 2) is farmers aren't business minded people, (many on the mainland are however) the market is huge for potato so what do tassie famers do? they farm carrots which demand is down,  this harms how much they can get and harms their ability to meet supply and demand, they also dont understand you have to go to places like Asia meet suppliers and face to face come up with a deal, most tassie farmers just expect business will come to them..sadly thats not how it works.

So i totally think we can feed Asia, at lest he high quality food export, but they need to get farmers meeting with suppliers not government officials meeting government officials.

Pantheon wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 12:52pm:

Recovery...from a capitalist standpoint even we see there is no real Recovery, and we are in for a great depression so large it will being down nation states, We have abandon capitalism, our economy more looks like a fascists economy, a national socialism economy where what left of the free market is now manipulated by the state for the benefit of big business or unions, (instead of the state regulating the free market to keep it fair and free) We haven't yet regulated our banks properly nor have to stopped the reason why the GFC started. We have an expanding welfare system which within itself isn't a bad thing, but with few jobs and business finding it harder to pay higher wages with increase tax's and expand, things isn't looking up. Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. we have huge government debt as well as private debt, and like Argentina in 2014, Dominican Republic  in 2005, India in 1972, when did hits a tipping out, its a fast down hill till you are forced to default.

And, the reason for the GFC, in your opinion, was?

That's not quite correct, we actually have a much higher Global Debt now, than was the case in 2007!

And, although the OZ Debt is no where near as high as many other countries & well within usually manageable proportions, on this occasion things are different & situations will change quickly from Good, to Bad & finally ugly!

It should also be born in mind, that we are all now, highly interconnected!
   

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 1:32pm:

Pantheon wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 12:52pm: Recovery...from a capitalist standpoint even we see there is no real Recovery, and we are in for a great depression so large it will being down nation states, We have abandon capitalism, our economy more looks like a fascists economy, a national socialism economy where what left of the free market is now manipulated by the state for the benefit of big business or unions, (instead of the state regulating the free market to keep it fair and free) We haven't yet regulated our banks properly nor have to stopped the reason why the GFC started. We have an expanding welfare system which within itself isn't a bad thing, but with few jobs and business finding it harder to pay higher wages with increase tax's and expand, things isn't looking up. Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. we have huge government debt as well as private debt, and like Argentina in 2014, Dominican Republic  in 2005, India in 1972, when did hits a tipping out, its a fast down hill till you are forced to default. And, the reason for the GFC, in your opinion, was? That's not quite correct, we actually have a much higher Global Debt now, than was the case in 2007! And, although the OZ Debt is no where near as high as many other countries & well within usually manageable proportions, on this occasion things are different & situations will change quickly from Good, to Bad & finally ugly! It should also be born in mind, that we are all now, highly interconnected!

When i said "Nothing has changed from 2007 to 2014.. i didn't mean our debt didn't change, of cause its grown i was talking about regulating and fixing the problem. Debt is a huge problem and by the looks of it neither labor or liberal will be able to fix the debt problem.

Also the seeds of the GFC really started in 2001, when the bush administration began to de-regulation banks, enabling them to start loaning large loans to people who couldn't pay them back..and enabling other harmful practices.

Banks need to be regulated, or things like the GFC happens.

The problem is Government (Government giving hands out to banks and corporations, and deregulating for  corporations benefits) Our system, our government is corrupt and manipulating what is left of the so called "free market" for the benefits of banks and corporations as well as interest groups and unions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gz6-d50WWHM

This is a great video, we need to help makers and regulate and crash takers to help fix our system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__-fIAHPcKQ

This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time.

say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 4:25pm:

This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year.

And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"!

As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing!

In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters!

As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser!

Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES!

Pantheon wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 1:18pm:

Tasmania has huge potential to feed Asia, Alone we could meet most of Australia's green food demands, but there are problems.. however there a two problems. 1) Government, Government intervention in the free market undercutting our products for another nations products for short term benefits and regulation which makes it incredibly tough to set up any new trading deal between famers and suppliers in Asia as extremely difficult in not impossible at times, as well as enough red tape to make a highly profitable trade to become a unprofitable trade , and 2) is farmers aren't business minded people, (many on the mainland are however) the market is huge for potato so what do tassie famers do? they farm carrots which demand is down,  this harms how much they can get and harms their ability to meet supply and demand, they also dont understand you have to go to places like Asia meet suppliers and face to face come up with a deal, most tassie farmers just expect business will come to them..sadly thats not how it works. So i totally think we can feed Asia, at lest he high quality food export, but they need to get farmers meeting with suppliers not government officials meeting government officials.

I have been saying for many years now, if we do one thing, it must be agriculture on a massive scale. There's no reason why both states and federal governments can't get some serious crop farming under way, on a huge scale. Once govt. sponsored farms are seen to be successful, private companies will buy into it and in no time we will have a flourishing new industry.

We all know food security is at risk, we could be the ones to feed a big part of the world or even just the Asian region would be enough....for starters.

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 5:15pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm: This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year. And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"! As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing! In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters! As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser! Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES!

you have the same story, year in, year out.  and the usa has a GROWING ECONOMY as does most of the world but, no... you say different.

what you have is a case of mental illness that refuses to believe any fact not in accord with your preconceptions.  You are already living in a DEpression/recession - one of your own making.

bummer about the massive oil reserves aint it?  Peak oil is like climate change - hysteria for small minds.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 4:25pm:

And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time.

Guess what longy? Don't tell anyone but I have to go fishing around in people's letterboxes at night because that sneaky Newman has sent everyone their own personal ID for voting day and I really, really can't vote just the once. I wonder if it will be a photo ID next year?....hope not, gee they make life hard up here.

wannabe arsonist.....no way! I love fire and I totally respect it. Remember bonfire night? my group always had the biggest, we collected old car tyres for months  woohoo!!!!! Remember the camp oven? cooking a big pot of whatever over the open fire, there's nothing like it. Singing, telling rude jokes around the fire, yes, we need fire in our lives.

Now what other sins should I confess? Oh! this one time I predicted the GFC long before it came.

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 5:59pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm:   And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time. Guess what longy? Don't tell anyone but I have to go fishing around in people's letterboxes at night because that sneaky Newman has sent everyone their own personal ID for voting day and I really, really can't vote just the once. I wonder if it will be a photo ID next year?....hope not, gee they make life hard up here. wannabe arsonist.....no way! I love fire and I totally respect it. Remember bonfire night? my group always had the biggest, we collected old car tyres for months  woohoo!!!!! Remember the camp oven? cooking a big pot of whatever over the open fire, there's nothing like it. Singing, telling rude jokes around the fire, yes, we need fire in our lives. Now what other sins should I confess? Oh! this one time I predicted the GFC long before it came.

you didn't predict the GFC.  for 20 years you have 'predicted' doom and gloom year in, year out and still do.  At some point blind luck will make you right, but it still makes you wrong for the 18 other years.  and still will for the next 18 years.

Its like your 75% house price crash prediction.  That's at least 15 years along now and been about as wrong  as you could get.

And I hope someone reports your backyard burning.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 5:42pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:15pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm: This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year. And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"! As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing! In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters! As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser! Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES! you have the same story, year in, year out.  and the usa has a GROWING ECONOMY as does most of the world but, no... you say different. what you have is a case of mental illness that refuses to believe any fact not in accord with your preconceptions.  You are already living in a DEpression/recession - one of your own making. bummer about the massive oil reserves aint it?  Peak oil is like climate change - hysteria for small minds.

You still have your "beliefs" Longy, But where is the back up references?

As per my earlier posts, it should be apparent, even to you, that Global Economic Growth, is well below usual averages AND Debt to GDP ratio's are well above usual averages, in fact they are at historically high levels!

AND, Economic activity simply has not bounced back, as it previously would!

There are some simple reasons, why these things are happening & I have written about them, but you simply prefer your "beliefs", perhaps because you are too simple?

FACTS LONGY, FACTS, JUST THE FACTS!!!

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:09pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:59pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm:   And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time. Guess what longy? Don't tell anyone but I have to go fishing around in people's letterboxes at night because that sneaky Newman has sent everyone their own personal ID for voting day and I really, really can't vote just the once. I wonder if it will be a photo ID next year?....hope not, gee they make life hard up here. wannabe arsonist.....no way! I love fire and I totally respect it. Remember bonfire night? my group always had the biggest, we collected old car tyres for months  woohoo!!!!! Remember the camp oven? cooking a big pot of whatever over the open fire, there's nothing like it. Singing, telling rude jokes around the fire, yes, we need fire in our lives. Now what other sins should I confess? Oh! this one time I predicted the GFC long before it came. you didn't predict the GFC.  for 20 years you have 'predicted' doom and gloom year in, year out and still do.  At some point blind luck will make you right, but it still makes you wrong for the 18 other years.  and still will for the next 18 years. Its like your 75% house price crash prediction.  That's at least 15 years along now and been about as wrong  as you could get. And I hope someone reports your backyard burning.

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Japan-Real-Estate-Prices.jpg

Above is the "Canary in this Economic Coal Mine" and this is what can be expected here & elsewhere, when Reality arrives, which is now getting pretty near!

REALITY & FACTS LONGY, you should try them, sometimes!

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:18pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:42pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:15pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm: This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year. And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"! As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing! In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters! As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser! Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES! you have the same story, year in, year out.  and the usa has a GROWING ECONOMY as does most of the world but, no... you say different. what you have is a case of mental illness that refuses to believe any fact not in accord with your preconceptions.  You are already living in a DEpression/recession - one of your own making. bummer about the massive oil reserves aint it?  Peak oil is like climate change - hysteria for small minds. You still have your "beliefs" Longy, But where is the back up references? As per my earlier posts, it should be apparent, even to you, that Global Economic Growth, is well below usual averages AND Debt to GDP ratio's are well above usual averages, in fact they are at historically high levels! AND, Economic activity simply has not bounced back, as it previously would! There are some simple reasons, why these things are happening & I have written about them, but you simply prefer your "beliefs", perhaps because you are too simple? FACTS LONGY, FACTS, JUST THE FACTS!!!

as always, you are dead wrong.  a global economy coming out of a global semi-recession will naturally have below-average growth.  that's called mathematics and something you should try out for a change.  as global growth worldwide continues to increase (and it is) it will eventually return to around long term average growth.  just as it always has.

and the debt level currently is well BELOW that of post WW2.

please try your hand at some facts instead of something else!

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:27pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 6:09pm: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:59pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm:   And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time. Guess what longy? Don't tell anyone but I have to go fishing around in people's letterboxes at night because that sneaky Newman has sent everyone their own personal ID for voting day and I really, really can't vote just the once. I wonder if it will be a photo ID next year?....hope not, gee they make life hard up here. wannabe arsonist.....no way! I love fire and I totally respect it. Remember bonfire night? my group always had the biggest, we collected old car tyres for months  woohoo!!!!! Remember the camp oven? cooking a big pot of whatever over the open fire, there's nothing like it. Singing, telling rude jokes around the fire, yes, we need fire in our lives. Now what other sins should I confess? Oh! this one time I predicted the GFC long before it came. you didn't predict the GFC.  for 20 years you have 'predicted' doom and gloom year in, year out and still do.  At some point blind luck will make you right, but it still makes you wrong for the 18 other years.  and still will for the next 18 years. Its like your 75% house price crash prediction.  That's at least 15 years along now and been about as wrong  as you could get. And I hope someone reports your backyard burning. http://www.thebubblebubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Japan-Real-Estate-Prices.jpg Above is the "Canary in this Economic Coal Mine" and this is what can be expected here & elsewhere, when Reality arrives, which is now getting pretty near! REALITY & FACTS LONGY, you should try them, sometimes!

Japan is no typical of the world and is in fact, quite ATYPICAL.  It is a country that has remained in recession for nearly 20 years despite a global boom.  it is a truly worthless measurement which naturally is why you use it.

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:57pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 6:27pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 6:09pm: Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:59pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm:   And there is pansi, multiple-voter and wannabe arsonist who has been predicting doom and gloom for 15 years now and been wrong every single time. Guess what longy? Don't tell anyone but I have to go fishing around in people's letterboxes at night because that sneaky Newman has sent everyone their own personal ID for voting day and I really, really can't vote just the once. I wonder if it will be a photo ID next year?....hope not, gee they make life hard up here. wannabe arsonist.....no way! I love fire and I totally respect it. Remember bonfire night? my group always had the biggest, we collected old car tyres for months  woohoo!!!!! Remember the camp oven? cooking a big pot of whatever over the open fire, there's nothing like it. Singing, telling rude jokes around the fire, yes, we need fire in our lives. Now what other sins should I confess? Oh! this one time I predicted the GFC long before it came. you didn't predict the GFC.  for 20 years you have 'predicted' doom and gloom year in, year out and still do.  At some point blind luck will make you right, but it still makes you wrong for the 18 other years.  and still will for the next 18 years. Its like your 75% house price crash prediction.  That's at least 15 years along now and been about as wrong  as you could get. And I hope someone reports your backyard burning. http://www.thebubblebubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Japan-Real-Estate-Prices.jpg Above is the "Canary in this Economic Coal Mine" and this is what can be expected here & elsewhere, when Reality arrives, which is now getting pretty near! REALITY & FACTS LONGY, you should try them, sometimes! Japan is no typical of the world and is in fact, quite ATYPICAL.  It is a country that has remained in recession for nearly 20 years despite a global boom.  it is a truly worthless measurement which naturally is why you use it.

As I said, Japan is the "Canary in this Economic Coal Mine"!

Why? Because it was/is the first to experience the Baby Boomer Bust, from its Aging Population. Japan was actually first to experience this and that is the main reason for their initial Bust round 1989 & the reason that all the usual "Economic Fixes", haven't worked, despite the fact that Japan were going thru this during 1995-2006, which was probably the greatest Global Economic Boom in history and again that boom was also mainly caused by the Baby Boomer Boom!


As put in an article -
" Economists theorize that Japan’s inverted age pyramid may explain why its economy has failed to respond to stimulus measures.

“Monetary stimulus is considerably less effective in economies with aging societies and populations,” said Jonathan Buss, economist at Oxford Economics. “This is an important reason why monetary stimulus seems to be so ineffective in Japan.”

There are three key reasons why monetary stimulus tends to be less effective in Asian societies -- consumption patterns, older people becoming creditors rather than debtors, and the elderly holding assets in bonds rather than stocks, Buss said.

Older people’s consumptions patterns are less sensitive to interest rates as they are attempting to run down their savings before they die. If interest rates increase, there is not really an incentive for them to increase their savings because they will not have a chance to ever spend on that return. Similarly, if interest rates decrease, the elderly are not going to substantially increase consumptions.
Second, older people tend to be creditors rather than debtors in Japan, meaning they are less reliant on credit.
For elderly people there is not an incentive in holding risky assets, such as stocks in the equity market, because there is a very high chance that they will never be able to spend the results from the returns of risky assets. “This bias is particularly strong in Japan,” said Buss. “This means that a lot of the wealth effects from monetary policy simply don’t feed through to consumption.”
http://www.ibtimes.com/japan-recession-2014-how-graying-population-impacts-asian-economies-1725024

MOST of the rest of the world faces similar problems to Japan, but most other countries started their Aging Recession around 2007, whereas Jpan started theirs around 1989!

As I said, Japan is the "Canary in this Economic Coal Mine"!
But, as usual, there are also other factors influencing events, which you should be aware of, as I have written about them, often!

That said, YOU HAVE YOUR "BELIEFS"?

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 6:34pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 6:18pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:42pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 5:15pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 4:25pm: This thread is little more than a collection of desperately depressed people in need of more medication.  We have Prozac-now who believes in peak oil and that every country is in recession - despite the evidence to the contrary.  say no more.  When these two losers predict the end of the world we can know for sure that 2015 will be a good year. And, there we have the Longy "Belief/s"! As usual, Longy's "beliefs" are backed up by, well there backed up by nothing! In fact, your "beliefs" Longy, are dead wrong, as is your assertion that the US & UK were doing well, they are not & nor is the rest of Europe, Japan, China & everyone else that matters! As for losers, you may be the biggest loser, as you Decline to accept REAL FACTS and stay with your "beliefs", poor Longloser! Oh btw, if you want any credibility, I suggest you introduce REAL FACTS and back them up with REAL REFERENCES! you have the same story, year in, year out.  and the usa has a GROWING ECONOMY as does most of the world but, no... you say different. what you have is a case of mental illness that refuses to believe any fact not in accord with your preconceptions.  You are already living in a DEpression/recession - one of your own making. bummer about the massive oil reserves aint it?  Peak oil is like climate change - hysteria for small minds. You still have your "beliefs" Longy, But where is the back up references? As per my earlier posts, it should be apparent, even to you, that Global Economic Growth, is well below usual averages AND Debt to GDP ratio's are well above usual averages, in fact they are at historically high levels! AND, Economic activity simply has not bounced back, as it previously would! There are some simple reasons, why these things are happening & I have written about them, but you simply prefer your "beliefs", perhaps because you are too simple? FACTS LONGY, FACTS, JUST THE FACTS!!! as always, you are dead wrong.  a global economy coming out of a global semi-recession will naturally have below-average growth.  that's called mathematics and something you should try out for a change.  as global growth worldwide continues to increase (and it is) it will eventually return to around long term average growth.  just as it always has. and the debt level currently is well BELOW that of post WW2. please try your hand at some facts instead of something else!

This time is different, as shown by the following chart -
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/recessions-different-recoveries-500x362.png

You are correct however, that Debt is not quite as high as WW2, but it is 2nd to WW2 and I would highly suggest we do not need/nor want another World War, as the outcomes would be very different!
It should also be noted, that a massive Baby Boom took place after WW2 and that was the main reason, for Economic recovery, HOWEVER THAT ALSO CAN NOT HAPPEN AGAIN, AS EVEN THE ATTEMPT WOULD LEAD TO DISASTER AND IT WOULD FAIL ANYWAY, AS THE PLANET CAN'T EVEN SUPPORT WHAT WE HAVE NOW!   

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/FederalDebt1940to2012.svg/420px-FederalDebt1940to2012.svg.png


Facts Longy & Reality!!!

in summary...

You claim there is no economic growth and once I prove most countries are growing you recant
You claim we are in our highest ever debt and once shown that it is not so, you recant
You claim Japan is some kind of canary while economist themselves state Japan is atypical
You claim Peak Oil and yet there are more viable, extractable reserves now than at any time in history.


You are not getting much right there, depression-now. Why should anyone believe your repeated end-of-the-world scenarios?

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 17^th, 2015 at 7:24am:

in summary... You claim there is no economic growth and once I prove most countries are growing you recant You claim we are in our highest ever debt and once shown that it is not so, you recant You claim Japan is some kind of canary while economist themselves state Japan is atypical You claim Peak Oil and yet there are more viable, extractable reserves now than at any time in history. You are not getting much right there, depression-now. Why should anyone believe your repeated end-of-the-world scenarios?

Really? Where did I say that?
What I have said (regularly), is that Growth is well below normal, Debt is Historically high, this Recession is far from over and it is taking much longer to get back to "normal" than would usually be the case!!!

That's correct, Japan is, as I have explained, because of their early onset Baby Boomer Bust, which (as usual) you have not addressed, but (as usual) I did in my post AND gave an outside reference!

Yes & that is correct! Didn't you see Keith Suter on Sunrise this morning, he agreed we were currently experiencing Peak Oil, But more importantly, there is plenty of verifiable evidence for Peak Oil!

Well Longy, that leaves you getting very few things correct, But you are mostly Right???
In fact, you are Right so often,that you are the only one who believes YOU???

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 17^th, 2015 at 3:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jan 17th, 2015 at 7:24am: in summary... You claim there is no economic growth and once I prove most countries are growing you recant You claim we are in our highest ever debt and once shown that it is not so, you recant You claim Japan is some kind of canary while economist themselves state Japan is atypical You claim Peak Oil and yet there are more viable, extractable reserves now than at any time in history. You are not getting much right there, depression-now. Why should anyone believe your repeated end-of-the-world scenarios? Really? Where did I say that? What I have said (regularly), is that Growth is well below normal, Debt is Historically high, this Recession is far from over and it is taking much longer to get back to "normal" than would usually be the case!!! That's correct, Japan is, as I have explained, because of their early onset Baby Boomer Bust, which (as usual) you have not addressed, but (as usual) I did in my post AND gave an outside reference! Yes & that is correct! Didn't you see Keith Suter on Sunrise this morning, he agreed we were currently experiencing Peak Oil, But more importantly, there is plenty of verifiable evidence for Peak Oil! Well Longy, that leaves you getting very few things correct, But you are mostly Right??? In fact, you are Right so often,that you are the only one who believes YOU???

Still doing your research Longy?
Or, is this were you go into silence mode, because you've lost the discussion?

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16^th, 2015 at 7:55pm:

This time is different, as shown by the following chart - http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/recessions-different-recoveries-500x362.png You are correct however, that Debt is not quite as high as WW2, but it is 2nd to WW2 and I would highly suggest we do not need/nor want another World War, as the outcomes would be very different! It should also be noted, that a massive Baby Boom took place after WW2 and that was the main reason, for Economic recovery, HOWEVER THAT ALSO CAN NOT HAPPEN AGAIN, AS EVEN THE ATTEMPT WOULD LEAD TO DISASTER AND IT WOULD FAIL ANYWAY, AS THE PLANET CAN'T EVEN SUPPORT WHAT WE HAVE NOW!    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/FederalDebt1940to2012.svg/420px-FederalDebt1940to2012.svg.png Facts Longy & Reality!!!

The graph  is interesting what is the context ? What does it apply to ?

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/recessions-different-recoveries-500x362.png

Dnarever wrote on Jan 18^th, 2015 at 9:51am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jan 16th, 2015 at 7:55pm: This time is different, as shown by the following chart - http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/recessions-different-recoveries-500x362.png You are correct however, that Debt is not quite as high as WW2, but it is 2nd to WW2 and I would highly suggest we do not need/nor want another World War, as the outcomes would be very different! It should also be noted, that a massive Baby Boom took place after WW2 and that was the main reason, for Economic recovery, HOWEVER THAT ALSO CAN NOT HAPPEN AGAIN, AS EVEN THE ATTEMPT WOULD LEAD TO DISASTER AND IT WOULD FAIL ANYWAY, AS THE PLANET CAN'T EVEN SUPPORT WHAT WE HAVE NOW!    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/FederalDebt1940to2012.svg/420px-FederalDebt1940to2012.svg.png Facts Longy & Reality!!! The graph  is interesting what is the context ? What does it apply to ? http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/recessions-different-recoveries-500x362.png

Whilst the chart does show the often bumpy nature of these Economic recoveries, the main take is the duration of these recoveries.

These recessions/depression "normally" average around 3-4 years, to get back to where real Economic output had been at the start of the downturn, but according to this chart output for our current event was still well under the start point, after some 55 months, nearly 5 years.

Whilst the chart only goes to 55 months, I would venture that when the chart is updated in future years, it will likely show that Global output never actually got back to ground zero, even now, after some 6-7 years.

In fact, I would suggest, there is quite some doubt that we ever will, considering the future weight of Economic Demand Decline from the Baby Boomer Bust and Peak Oil & Climate Change issues!

So, IF the trend line continues & Economic output doesn't recover, then I think most people may have a fair idea of where that leads us, not that any of the major Political Party's, nor CB's, nor Economists will admit to that scenario.

And, whilst that may make some sense, because of leading to a "self fullfilling prophecy", it nevertheless would place a great many people, in a much worse position than they may have been, IF they were aware of where events were likely to be heading!

Finally, whilst the effects of the likely outcomes, in the above scenario, would initially affect the Lower to Middle Socio-Economic grouping more, the final outcome would be likely to devastate all group, including the top 1-10%.       

http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/recessions-different-recoveries-500x362.png