The bad polls have even got Abbott's main advisor thinking about who will replace him:




Quote:

...shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, seized on this account on Wednesday, saying the “revelation in this book that Joe Hockey actually wanted to go further in the cuts in the budget is a stark reminder of just how out of touch Australia’s treasurer is”. Bowen also said it was “extraordinary” for the prime minister’s chief of staff, Peta Credlin, to name potential successors to Abbott. In the book, Credlin says...“Joe’s absolutely a contender and he’s probably got his head above every other contender... ...The book also tells of a curious incident during Hockey’s time at university that prompted his decision to enter student politics, beginning a chain of events that led to his federal political career. It says that Hockey as a young child told “everyone who would listen that he wanted to be prime minister one day”, but by his third year at university he had not mentioned those political ambitions for some time. That all changed when Hockey visited the University of Sydney’s students’ representative council front counter seeking a movie pass. The woman at the desk “had dismissed his query”. The book says Hockey thought the woman was rude; he felt that his fees went to paying her salary and that meant she was in his service. “I would have liked her to be nice to me,” Hockey says in the book, “so I thought I should give politics a go.”... http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jul/23/tony-abbott-consulted-rupert-murdoch-over-paid-parental-leave-book

http://images.smh.com.au/2014/05/09/5413631/VD-cigar-408x264.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BQQ0rUWTAGA/TeQUuWOIz1I/AAAAAAAAABw/s_QwKfYbCHE/s1600/protectedimage.jpeg

Don't know if Joe is ready yet but with so many to chose from who knows.

They ALL need replacing.

I'd be no more inclined to vote for the ba$tards with Hockey as leader than I was with Abbott.

As for the Pet Cretin, that one should be in jail. Treasonous bi%#h.

labor are corrupt wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 1:00am:

Don't know if Joe is ready yet but with so many to chose from who knows.

If you want to choose garbage.

Conservatives do, for some reason.

Vote for the drug dealers wife then.

Well there ya go.  Replace one fool with another.  Living proof that these guys are ALL not worth the time of day.

When the only substitute for a Der Tony is a manic Middle Eastern Joe who discusses leaners etc - we are all doomed.

The sooner the better - with Joe in the hot seat the revolution is many years closer!

Would YOU buy a used car from THIS man?

labor are corrupt wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 1:04am:

Vote for the drug dealers wife then.

I probably will.

She's a far better option than ANYONE the neo-cons have.

labor are corrupt wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 1:04am:

Vote for the drug dealers wife then.

Would  YOU buy a used car from THIS man?

http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2013/05/18/1226645/829697-joe-hockey-melissa-babbage.jpg

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 1:10am:

labor are corrupt wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 1:04am: Vote for the drug dealers wife then. Would  YOU buy a used car from THIS man? http://resources1.news.com.au/images/2013/05/18/1226645/829697-joe-hockey-melissa-babbage.jpg

Isn't Joe looking good .

http://i249.photobucket.com/albums/gg207/Broomeadventure/74b6ad93-988b-410c-b54b-b15d55165677_400_zps88ff5028.jpg

Sir Grappler Truth Teller OAM wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 1:05am:

Would YOU buy a used car from THIS man?

He's always seemed like the dodgy, smarmy car salesman to me. To answer your Q, no, no way.

That would be a bad move. Joe used to be popular but not after his disastrous budget and his nonchalant attitude to the poor to suck it up.

I have wanted a turnbull/hockey leadership, with either in charge, preferably Hockey, with Turnbull as his Treasurer and deputy.

I would like Abbott to join Howard, Rudd and Gillard in retirement.

I am very pleased with Abbotts performance.  Unlike Labor, I am not constantly looking to the polls for approval.  I like a PM that will do what is right, rather than what is popular according to a very small number of people.

Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:53am:

Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

He might win the next one, but the 3rd election he may no longer be leader.

Then again the way it's looking is that the lnp will lose wa, vic and qld and then who knows federally.

Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:56am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: Abbott will win the next election and the one after that. He might win the next one, but the 3rd election he may no longer be leader. Then again the way it's looking is that the lnp will lose wa, vic and qld and then who knows federally.

they wont lose QLD. they have too far to travel and memories of labor are too recent. WA election is a long time away as is the federal election.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:53am:

I am very pleased with Abbotts performance.

You must set the bar very low then. His delivery on promises has been appalling.


Quote:

Unlike Labor, I am not constantly looking to the polls for approval.

That's because the Abbott government is performing badly in the polls.


Quote:

I like a PM that will do what is right, rather than what is popular according to a very small number of people.

I would rather have a PM that doesn't break his word.


Quote:

Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

His betrayal of the trust of the people has damaged his standing so much that he's going to get SMASHED at the next election. The Coalition are on track to lose up to a dozen seats in Queensland alone.

Bam wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:17pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: I am very pleased with Abbotts performance. You must set the bar very low then. His delivery on promises has been appalling. Quote: Unlike Labor, I am not constantly looking to the polls for approval. That's because the Abbott government is performing badly in the polls. [quote]I like a PM that will do what is right, rather than what is popular according to a very small number of people.

I would rather have a PM that doesn't break his word.


Quote:

Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

His betrayal of the trust of the people has damaged his standing so much that he's going to get SMASHED at the next election. The Coalition are on track to lose up to a dozen seats in Queensland alone.
[/quote]


you must of read that on IA where just for context they were predicting the coalition to lose 17 seats in QLD at the LAST election.

gotta love IA.  couldn't predict a winner with a time machine.

labor are corrupt wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 1:00am:

Don't know if Joe is ready yet but with so many to chose from who knows.

so many?  ;D ;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

the only reason Hockey is even in contention is that they have no one else ....

Hockey isn't cut out to lead. .. he's a follower.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:02pm:

Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:56am: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: Abbott will win the next election and the one after that. He might win the next one, but the 3rd election he may no longer be leader. Then again the way it's looking is that the lnp will lose wa, vic and qld and then who knows federally. they wont lose QLD. they have too far to travel and memories of labor are too recent.

The memories of Newman are even more recent.

18.5% swing in Stafford. This is going to translate to a swing against the government at the next election of between 10% and 12%. I still expect the LNP to be returned, but with a much smaller majority and without Newman as leader (he will lose Ashgrove).

The Coalition seem to be governing in much the same way that the captain of the Titanic chose to navigate. "Ignore the iceberg, we're unsinkable! Stay on course! Stay on course!"

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:19pm:

you must of read that on IA where just for context they were predicting the coalition to lose 17 seats in QLD at the LAST election.

why do you always go back to trying to make it about IA?  :D :D :D

The libs will be lucky to win the elction the way he is going ... 17 seats is certainly not unlikely. Newman is fginished either way. The libs have already said they won't move him to a safer seat and there is almost no way he will win his seat.

We don't need drink-driving jumped-up pubic servants to be running the Liberal party thank you.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:19pm:

Bam wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:17pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: I am very pleased with Abbotts performance. You must set the bar very low then. His delivery on promises has been appalling. Quote: Unlike Labor, I am not constantly looking to the polls for approval. That's because the Abbott government is performing badly in the polls. [quote]I like a PM that will do what is right, rather than what is popular according to a very small number of people. I would rather have a PM that doesn't break his word. [quote] Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

His betrayal of the trust of the people has damaged his standing so much that he's going to get SMASHED at the next election. The Coalition are on track to lose up to a dozen seats in Queensland alone.
[/quote]


you must of read that on IA where just for context they were predicting the coalition to lose 17 seats in QLD at the LAST election.

gotta love IA.  couldn't predict a winner with a time machine.[/quote]
Got to love how you keep trotting out IA as a bogeyman for any view that goes against your own biases.

As usual, you're making false assumptions. Check out Poll Bludger sometime. That site's poll aggregate is currently predicting that the LNP will lose 11 Federal seats out of the 22 they hold with a swing against the government of over 8% in Queensland. And that is after what he says is "a slight revival in the Coalition’s fortunes after the MH17 disaster".

Bam wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:27pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:02pm: Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:56am: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: Abbott will win the next election and the one after that. He might win the next one, but the 3rd election he may no longer be leader. Then again the way it's looking is that the lnp will lose wa, vic and qld and then who knows federally. they wont lose QLD. they have too far to travel and memories of labor are too recent. The memories of Newman are even more recent. 18.5% swing in Stafford. This is going to translate to a swing against the government at the next election of between 10% and 12%. I still expect the LNP to be returned, but with a much smaller majority and without Newman as leader (he will lose Ashgrove). The Coalition seem to be governing in much the same way that the captain of the Titanic chose to navigate. "Ignore the iceberg, we're unsinkable! Stay on course! Stay on course!"

so you agree with me???  that's a first.  I have said all along that Newman will lose a large number of seats but the swing needs to be 16% or so and that is a big ask for a first-term govt where a lot of people remember the last govt.  but congrats on not doing the usual nonsense and extrapolating a mid-term by-election into a full one.  bye-elections usually have a protest element in it that doesn't get repeated in the general election.  You were generous.  I expect a swing of 11-14%

bogarde73 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:29pm:

We don't need drink-driving jumped-up pubic servants to be running the Liberal party thank you.

So Troy Buswell is out?

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:36pm:

Bam wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:27pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:02pm: Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:56am: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: Abbott will win the next election and the one after that. He might win the next one, but the 3rd election he may no longer be leader. Then again the way it's looking is that the lnp will lose wa, vic and qld and then who knows federally. they wont lose QLD. they have too far to travel and memories of labor are too recent. The memories of Newman are even more recent. 18.5% swing in Stafford. This is going to translate to a swing against the government at the next election of between 10% and 12%. I still expect the LNP to be returned, but with a much smaller majority and without Newman as leader (he will lose Ashgrove). The Coalition seem to be governing in much the same way that the captain of the Titanic chose to navigate. "Ignore the iceberg, we're unsinkable! Stay on course! Stay on course!" so you agree with me???  that's a first.

I've never said anything different, and considering I am on record as making considered predictions on the LNP's chances for longer than you have, it is more accurate to say that you agree with me, not the other way around.


Quote:

I have said all along that Newman will lose a large number of seats but the swing needs to be 16% or so

Where? I have never seen you mention a 16% swing before, and certainly not without any corroborating evidence. It's also wrong - the LNP would need to lose 36 seats for the ALP to form a majority government, and that requires a uniform swing of about 11.2%. My best guess is that the ALP will go close to that but just fall short by a handful of seats. My guess is that the LNP will lose about 30 seats and retain a very slim majority of no more than two or three seats (the Queensland Parliament has several MPs on the crossbenches).


Quote:

and that is a big ask for a first-term govt where a lot of people remember the last govt.

If the new government were doing a good job and not doing anything controversial, then that would certainly be the case. But this government have produced a few epic fails on their handling of the judiciary that would allow political corruption to take hold, and as far as corruption is concerned the people of Queensland have very long memories.

Do not make the mistake of assuming that the perceived sins of the previous government are all the voters will consider when choosing their vote and that anything a new government does in their first term does not matter. If it was true, there would not have been an 18.5% swing against the government in Stafford. It's not for no reason that the government have recorded huge swings against them in byelections. If they were doing the right thing without making too many egregious mistakes, the government would have retained their gains, as they did in the Brisbane by-election (a 3% swing TO the LNP in Brisbane after Bligh left politics).


Quote:

but congrats on not doing the usual nonsense and extrapolating a mid-term by-election into a full one.  bye-elections usually have a protest element in it that doesn't get repeated in the general election.  You were generous.  I expect a swing of 11-14%

Seems you're finally starting to realise that I assess these things fairly. I always expected a protest vote in Stafford, given that the Newman government have made numerous controversial decisions.

My prediction of a 10%-12% swing against the LNP at the next election is based on current opinion polling for the whole state. I expect to modify my prediction over time as the election approaches and circumstances change.

Your prediction of an 11% to 14% swing needs reassessment. If the swing was in the 11% to 14% range and it was uniform, it would be bad news for the LNP government. A uniform 11% swing would see the LNP lose their majority. A 14% swing would see Labor win by about 8 seats (with about 44 seats gained - the same as what they lost at the last election).

This is why I went with a lower prediction.

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:53am:

I am very pleased with Abbotts performance.  Unlike Labor, I am not constantly looking to the polls for approval.  I like a PM that will do what is right, rather than what is popular according to a very small number of people. Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

Ditto!

Bam wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 2:19pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:36pm: Bam wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:27pm: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:02pm: Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:56am: longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 11:53am: Abbott will win the next election and the one after that. He might win the next one, but the 3rd election he may no longer be leader. Then again the way it's looking is that the lnp will lose wa, vic and qld and then who knows federally. they wont lose QLD. they have too far to travel and memories of labor are too recent. The memories of Newman are even more recent. 18.5% swing in Stafford. This is going to translate to a swing against the government at the next election of between 10% and 12%. I still expect the LNP to be returned, but with a much smaller majority and without Newman as leader (he will lose Ashgrove). The Coalition seem to be governing in much the same way that the captain of the Titanic chose to navigate. "Ignore the iceberg, we're unsinkable! Stay on course! Stay on course!" so you agree with me???  that's a first. I've never said anything different, and considering I am on record as making considered predictions on the LNP's chances for longer than you have, it is more accurate to say that you agree with me, not the other way around. Quote: I have said all along that Newman will lose a large number of seats but the swing needs to be 16% or so Where? I have never seen you mention a 16% swing before, and certainly not without any corroborating evidence. It's also wrong - the LNP would need to lose 36 seats for the ALP to form a majority government, and that requires a uniform swing of about 11.2%. My best guess is that the ALP will go close to that but just fall short by a handful of seats. My guess is that the LNP will lose about 30 seats and retain a very slim majority of no more than two or three seats (the Queensland Parliament has several MPs on the crossbenches). [quote]and that is a big ask for a first-term govt where a lot of people remember the last govt.

If the new government were doing a good job and not doing anything controversial, then that would certainly be the case. But this government have produced a few epic fails on their handling of the judiciary that would allow political corruption to take hold, and as far as corruption is concerned the people of Queensland have very long memories.

Do not make the mistake of assuming that the perceived sins of the previous government are all the voters will consider when choosing their vote and that anything a new government does in their first term does not matter. If it was true, there would not have been an 18.5% swing against the government in Stafford. It's not for no reason that the government have recorded huge swings against them in byelections. If they were doing the right thing without making too many egregious mistakes, the government would have retained their gains, as they did in the Brisbane by-election (a 3% swing TO the LNP in Brisbane after Bligh left politics).


Quote:

but congrats on not doing the usual nonsense and extrapolating a mid-term by-election into a full one.  bye-elections usually have a protest element in it that doesn't get repeated in the general election.  You were generous.  I expect a swing of 11-14%

Seems you're finally starting to realise that I assess these things fairly. I always expected a protest vote in Stafford, given that the Newman government have made numerous controversial decisions.

My prediction of a 10%-12% swing against the LNP at the next election is based on current opinion polling for the whole state. I expect to modify my prediction over time as the election approaches and circumstances change.

Your prediction of an 11% to 14% swing needs reassessment. If the swing was in the 11% to 14% range and it was uniform, it would be bad news for the LNP government. A uniform 11% swing would see the LNP lose their majority. A 14% swing would see Labor win by about 8 seats (with about 44 seats gained - the same as what they lost at the last election).

This is why I went with a lower prediction.
[/quote]

Since I have been making political predictions for 44 years your assertion that you have been doing it for longer is either false or utterly irrelevant.

Hockey's a WET....  I won't vote for him.
hell I don't have to he isn't in my seat.  ;D

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 11:53am:

I am very pleased with Abbotts performance.  Unlike Labor, I am not constantly looking to the polls for approval.  I like a PM that will do what is right, rather than what is popular according to a very small number of people. Abbott will win the next election and the one after that.

You grow more delusional by the day.

John Smith wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 24th, 2014 at 12:19pm: you must of read that on IA where just for context they were predicting the coalition to lose 17 seats in QLD at the LAST election. why do you always go back to trying to make it about IA?  :D :D :D

To deflect from what is being discussed??

;)

bogarde73 wrote on Jul 24^th, 2014 at 12:29pm:

We don't need drink-driving jumped-up pubic servants to be running the Liberal party thank you.

Too late, she already is.

:D