Post by # on Jan 30th, 2014 at 1:42pm
An intriguing analysis of the current situation.
As Tony Abbott launches all-out war on climate action, what's the plan?
28 January 2014
This blog was originally drafted as notes for a small group discussion in Melbourne. It is in part a situational analysis, covering the need to engage with conservative voters, the fragmentation of our efforts, and the growing gap between what is scientifically necessary and what is considered politically possible, resulting in a cognitive dissonance which is structurally embedded in the climate discourse. At first, I was reluctant to publish these notes because they are pretty blunt, but a number of people thought they were worth an airing, especially because the Abbott government is waging an all-out "shock and awe" war to destroy climate and environment public policy, for which much of our side appears ill-prepared.
by David Spratt
... today we can say, very roughly, based on recent polling (which I have roughly sketched in the next chart) that:[list bull-blackball]On our side (left section of chart), around 40% view climate change as real, human caused and a problem requiring serious action, and support a carbon price in some form.
At the other end (right section of chart), around 20% are deniers, don't know, or want no action.
In the middle (centre of chart within red dashed box) are 40% who believe climate change is real (but have mixed views about human causation), and view extreme events as becoming more frequent (with mixed views about causation). They believe climate change will become a serious threat to their way of life (more in the distant future than soon), want some action on climate change but don't want it to cost them, so oppose carbon pricing.
A rough map of public opinion in Australia on climate change (David Spratt)
Looking in more detail at this middle group, the fact that they are unwilling to countenance climate policies they perceive as costing them even a small amount — hence Abbott's largely fallacious but effective appeal to "cost of living pressures" and electricity prices — will only change when the visceral impacts of climate change — on health, home, livelihoods, children — are well understood as personally affecting their lives in a significant way, and sooner rather than later.
At least 70% of this middle group vote conservative. Winning this group is essential, especially that portion of it (15–20% of total population) who attribute human cause to climate change, and also to more extreme events. But the human attribution issue is not an insurmountable obstacle, as a CSIRO attitudes survey concluded that:
Quote:
...
Much more at the link.
28 January 2014
This blog was originally drafted as notes for a small group discussion in Melbourne. It is in part a situational analysis, covering the need to engage with conservative voters, the fragmentation of our efforts, and the growing gap between what is scientifically necessary and what is considered politically possible, resulting in a cognitive dissonance which is structurally embedded in the climate discourse. At first, I was reluctant to publish these notes because they are pretty blunt, but a number of people thought they were worth an airing, especially because the Abbott government is waging an all-out "shock and awe" war to destroy climate and environment public policy, for which much of our side appears ill-prepared.
by David Spratt
... today we can say, very roughly, based on recent polling (which I have roughly sketched in the next chart) that:[list bull-blackball]
A rough map of public opinion in Australia on climate change (David Spratt)
Looking in more detail at this middle group, the fact that they are unwilling to countenance climate policies they perceive as costing them even a small amount — hence Abbott's largely fallacious but effective appeal to "cost of living pressures" and electricity prices — will only change when the visceral impacts of climate change — on health, home, livelihoods, children — are well understood as personally affecting their lives in a significant way, and sooner rather than later.
At least 70% of this middle group vote conservative. Winning this group is essential, especially that portion of it (15–20% of total population) who attribute human cause to climate change, and also to more extreme events. But the human attribution issue is not an insurmountable obstacle, as a CSIRO attitudes survey concluded that:
Quote:
|
...
Much more at the link.