Bitten by the chameleon Coalition's hidden agenda
PETER BROWNE
24 Dec, 2013 04:00 AM

Three months after an election victory might seem a strange time to be talking about a malaise within the Liberal Party. But the three months of mishaps that followed Tony Abbott's swearing-in point to an underlying problem - the same problem that became clear after John Howard was elected prime minister in 1996. Howard and his colleagues were not forced to face up to their predicament because Australia was carried along by an international wave of economic growth and low interest rates that would last for 12 years. Abbott is unlikely to be so lucky.

What these governments have in common became clear during the campaigns the Liberal Party and its coalition partner fought to unseat Labor. In 1996, it was all about getting rid of Paul Keating and everything he represented as prime minister. The Liberal Party's own policies were low-key and largely innocuous. This year's strategy was uncannily similar, even if the Lodge had a different occupant.

What were Howard's plans for health, education or industrial relations in 1996? It was hard to tell. And Abbott's in 2013? Not much detail on health, a ''unity ticket'' on schools, no return to Work Choices. All we knew for sure was that, Senate willing, Labor's most contentious reforms would be ditched.

The problem didn't start with Howard. Malcolm Fraser's successful campaign in 1975 was every bit as negative. Whitlam had to go, and Labor's landmark policies - a long list, including Medibank (the forerunner of Medicare), the Schools Commission, regional development programs and a more independent foreign policy - were in the firing line. Fraser's memoir even records cabinet earnestly discussing how, without wasting too much stationery, it could reverse Whitlam's decision to re-label the federal government as the Australian government.

In 1996, Howard's new government seemed flat-footed and disoriented, as if the negativity of the campaign had been an end in itself. Once the potency of ''[Kim] Beazley's black hole'' began to wane, Howard began searching for a more positive issue to take to the next election - which turned out to be, of all things, the GST, although his embrace of gun control temporarily provided a similar anchor.

In Abbott's case, the early months have been characterised by confusion and controversy - most damagingly in relation to school funding, the response to the Indonesian spying leaks, and Scott Morrison's handling of boat arrivals. In each case a negative election campaign delivered a weak mandate to the incoming government. Enough voters were sick of Labor to switch their vote, but the result was scarcely a resounding expression of confidence in the Liberal-led Coalition.

The Gonski double-flip shows what negative campaigning means once a party is in government. In an area of public policy, education, which is taken very seriously by many voters, the Abbott ministry effectively has no policy.

Essentially, the same can be said about health, another policy area that figures in pre-election surveys of the top two or three issues in people's minds.

One possible explanation for this recurring problem is that in each case the Coalition happened to be faced with an opponent -Whitlam, Keating and Gillard/Rudd - who was so inviting a target for a negative campaign that no party could have resisted. That's certainly a factor. Labor's performance was undoubtedly the focus of all three elections, and not only because in each case it had made significant mistakes, forced and unforced. All three had introduced popular, big-ticket reforms - including universal health insurance, the superannuation guarantee and the disability insurance scheme -which they campaigned to defend.

But there is a more important reason why the Liberal Party takes government in this way, and the unravelling of the government's support after the 2004 election - the election that pitted Howard against Mark Latham - gives a clue as to what it is. Howard won that election on the theme of trust, playing very effectively on uncertainties about Latham's experience and character.

He said scarcely anything about industrial relations reform, which would be the most controversial theme of the next three years of government - not a word in his campaign launch speech or his Press Club address, and just a brief mention, in ninth place, on a list of small business policies in the party's election manifesto.

Another contentious feature of the 2004-07 parliament, the full privatisation of Telstra, was not mentioned anywhere in the policy announcements, and nor were the changes to media law and the disability benefit that the government initiated soon after the election.

That combination - a negative campaign and a failure to disclose the party's real aims - was bad not just for the quality of government but also for the Liberals themselves. With control of the Senate, Howard pursued a program that had no expressed backing from the electorate. Three years later, he was unceremoniously ejected from the Lodge. Since September's election, priorities that did not rate a mention during the election campaign are coming into focus.

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Andrew Robb revealed that he plans to bargain away part of Australia's economic sovereignty by allowing overseas companies to sue the government over alleged breaches of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Labor's electoral law reforms, inspired by the High Court's rejection of Howard-era attempts to discourage young and mobile voters, are the target of a slow-burn campaign by the Special Minister of State and his allies. Joe Hockey - who had relentlessly targeted Labor's debt level -has left himself as much room as possible to spend the government's way out of trouble. And once the timing is right, the Gonski funding model will be watered down further or dumped.

Would the Liberals have polled any less strongly if they had been more frank about their plans? It is hard to be sure. But there is a longer-term price to be paid for becoming the party that routinely says one thing in opposition and does another in office. The vote on September 7 was a vote against Labor but not necessarily a vote against many features of its program.

It definitely was not a vote in favour of the kind of policy program that most members of Abbott's ministry would favour: much tougher workplace laws, dramatic cuts in ABC funding, more generous tax breaks for high earners, and a return to Howard-era policies on school funding, healthcare priorities and electoral laws.

Those policies might resonate within the Liberals' committed core, but they are out of step with majority opinion in the electorate. And that gap will only get worse as a wave of less conservative voters progressively replaces the older voters who Howard courted so successfully. This is the dilemma the Coalition faces. Peter Browne is editor of Inside Story (inside.org.au).

# wrote on Dec 26^th, 2013 at 2:51pm:

Peter Browne is editor of Inside Story (inside.org.au).

Who is Peter Browne?


Quote:

Biography     Peter Browne edits the ISR's online magazine, Inside Story, which publishes essays, journalism and commentary from academic researchers and journalists. He founded Australian Policy Online and is a member of the Democratic Audit of Australia. He is a former humanities and social sciences publisher at UNSW Press and between 1994 and 2002 produced broadcasts for Radio Australia, ABC Local Radio and Radio National, most recently as executive producer of The National Interest on Radio National. He has contributed articles and reviews to a range of publications, including the Age, the Canberra Times, the Australian Financial Review, the Australian, the Guardian Weekly and the New Statesman. His book, The Longest Journey: Resettling Refugees from Africa, published in 2006 by UNSW Press, was shortlisted in the non-fiction category of the 2006 Human Rights Award and the community relations category of the 2007 NSW Premiers Literary Awards. http://www.swinburne.edu.au/lss/staff/view.php?who=pbrowne&unit=isr

What is Inside story?


Quote:

Inside Story combines original, high-quality journalism and rigorous analysis to bring its readers a distinctive view of Australia and the world. Drawing on a network of Australian writers and academic researchers, together with correspondents in Africa, Europe, Asia and the Americas, Inside Story investigates the forces shaping politics, society and culture. All articles in Inside Story are original. - See more at: http://inside.org.au/about/#sthash.yTFWxiBT.dpuf http://inside.org.au/about/

There we have it simply stated. Inside Story deals in original, high-quality journalism and rigorous analysis to enrich our lives. Nothing wrong with self-praise but it would be nice to see it backed up by public opinion. Who appointed Mr Browne as the arbiter of all things Australian?

I smell an agenda at Inside Story. 

Peter Browne, whoever he is, should stand for election and see if he can do better. :P

of course one smells an agenda..... that is after all much easier than arguing against the commentary.

of course one smells an agenda... after all this bloke just pointed out how disreputable and untrustworthy the current government is, whilst clearly not singing the praises of the former government, obviously, there are no winners here...

# wrote on Dec 26^th, 2013 at 2:51pm:

Those policies might resonate within the Liberals' committed core, but they are out of step with majority opinion in the electorate.

That's because the "Liberals' committed core" are those that pay, by far, the vast majority of tax.  They pay for the cost of Govt and they obviously want to see that the cost of Govt be as low as possible.

They are never in a majority.

They are perpetually extorted by the majority that pay the minority of tax and in that effect are the slaves of that majority.  Upwards of 50% of their income is taken against their will by force.  Upwards of 50% of the time they are effectively working for nothing.

....and the biggest whingers are those that pay little or nothing and parties like the Greens and Labor crawl up their bums because the politics of envy is worth lots of votes. >:(