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Member Run Boards >> Environment >> IPCC 95% sure about AGW http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1380325015 Message started by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:36am |
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Title: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:36am
And heres the scientific method they used to come to that 95% conclusion ;D ;D ;D
Yesterday, a reporter asked me how the IPCC came up with the 95% number. Here is the exchange that I had with him: Reporter: I’m hoping you can answer a question about the upcoming IPCC report. When the report states that scientists are “95 percent certain” that human activities are largely to cause for global warming, what does that mean? How is 95 percent calculated? What is the basis for it? And if the certainty rate has risen from 90 in 2007 to 95 percent now, does that mean that the likelihood of something is greater? Or that scientists are just more certain? And is there a difference? JC: The 95% is basically expert judgment, it is a negotiated figure among the authors. The increase from 90-95% means that they are more certain. How they can justify this is beyond me. Reporter: You mean they sit around and say, “How certain are you?” “Oh, I feel about 95 percent certain. Michael over there at Penn State feels a little more certain. And Judy at Georgia Tech feels a little less. So, yeah, overall I’d say we’re about 95 percent certain.” Please tell me it’s more rigorous than that. JC: Well I wasn’t in the room, but last report they said 90%, and perhaps they felt it was appropriate or politic that they show progress and up it to 95%. Reporter: So it really is as subjective as that? JC: As far as I know, this is what goes on. All this has never been documented. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by skippy. on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:43am
Link? Was it that phoney tony fellow assaulter of women Piers Ackerman or Dolt? Or just another confused sour prick form News lmd? Or you just made it up. Okey doky. ;D ;D ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by salad in on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:49am
This is nothing more than a crude attempt by the IPCC to usurp the holy Bible*.
*also includes other holy books that have a loose use by date for the world and its inhabitants. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Frances on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:50am
Something that may or may not be a quote and is posted without names or sources ;D ;D ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Greens_Win on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:51am
Why he is keeping the link secret
Andrew Bolt Opinion http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/ipcc_more_sure_about_less/ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by skippy. on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:53am ____ wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:51am:
OH LOL give me ten dollars I picked it as Doltism. ;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Greens_Win on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:00am
Yep I.B rejects the science of deadly climate change for the religion of Doltism
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:06am
Haha, idiots think Bolt wrote it, Bolt is the devil in their climate religion, no it was from one of tens of thousands of other reputable scientists that think AGW is a bunch of crapola ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by cods on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:15am Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:06am:
in another ten years they will be saying... hehehehehehe we got it all wrong... who do we send the BILL too? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Greens_Win on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:21am Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:06am:
Yet you still haven't supplied links to these reputable 'climate' scientists. Meanwhile these sceptics refute basic science. http://youtu.be/kwtt51gvaJQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwtt51gvaJQ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by skippy. on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:25am cods wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:15am:
Another fool with a less than basic education that thinks she knows more than the overwhelming majority of the scientific community. ::) a definite pattern within the conga line. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:38am
The IPCC Report is extremely conservative. It understates the risk. Virtually any climatologist will echo that sentiment.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:50am
What on Earth do climate hysterics want links for?, they won't read them. ::)
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 11:16am Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:06am:
Here's a self-proclaimed reputable climate scientist who also awarded himself a Nobel Prize: Quote:
http://www.politicususa.com/2012/05/29/christopher-monckton-man-lies-credentials-questions-obamas.html He's an expert in PhotoShop too. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Phemanderac on Sep 28th, 2013 at 12:08pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:50am:
That's more than a bit of pot kettle black matey. I see no evidence that your team read anything that is posted, including linked material. In fact, that would be hypocrisy you saying that. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by thelastnail on Sep 28th, 2013 at 12:10pm skippy. wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:25am:
she has more knowledge than a PhD on the subject simply because she is a liberal voter ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 2:01pm
Ha ha global warming is real because you can post a picture of a man with funny eyes, you could get a job with the IPCC with that sort of skill set ;D
One day one of these global warming hysterics will actually provide scientific PROOF instead of just the views of a room full of overpaid bludgers that depend on global warming to keep their jobs ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:44pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 2:01pm:
I can't pretend to know better. Evidently, you can. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:52pm I'm 95% sure that 100% of the alarmists will ignore the fact that 95% is not 100%. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:52pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:44pm:
Again all you are providing is yet another case of x amount of people say man made global warming is real so you should believe it too, opinion is not science ... sh#t a billion people believe in allah too, should I convert to Islam ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:54pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:52pm:
Exactly. Sounds more like a religion, rather than science. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:11pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:52pm:
There's little risk of the worst case. You want to gamble that there's no risk. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:13pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:52pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:16pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:54pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:17pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:11pm:
Incorrect. Even if the world fries tomorrow, there will not be 100% certainty that it was caused by humans. # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:11pm:
Incorrect. I have no idea where you're getting that from. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:20pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:16pm:
Incorrect, once again (don't you ever get tired of being wrong). I've never denied "the opinion of the best qualified scientists". Seems like all this CO2 is going to your head. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:26pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 3:52pm:
I see what you did there. request_large_rage_comic_faces_for__1877054656_640x0.jpg (58 KB | 69
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:31pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:20pm:
Still trolling, young simpleton. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:33pm Vuk11 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:26pm:
Demanding 100% certainty? Is that honest? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:35pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:33pm:
It's not a demand. Rather highlighting the fact that if they aren't 100% certain they could be wrong. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:36pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:31pm:
au contraire You are the one making false accusations, and then running away when confronted. "You want to gamble that there's no risk." " ... your denial of the opinion of the best qualified scientists ... " Really? Source? Links? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by longweekend58 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:37pm muso wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:38am:
so the real figure is actual 145% certain? and the 2degree figure is actually 7 degrees? cmon muso. you can do better than that. the IPCC isn't conservative at all. it is merely INCOMPETENT. or how do you account for them being wrong 100% of the time? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:39pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:33pm:
I'm certainly not demanding 100%. Who is? You seem to make all these accusations, and then run for the hills when asked to explain. The irony is, you have the audacity to call other people trolls. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:54pm longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:37pm:
The IPCC has erred on the conservative side. A great many papers that predicted a higher temperature increase were not included. Many that predicted lower increases were included, including some that are generally regarded as having little credibility. There is political pressure by countries such as China to understate the findings. Some climate scientists suggest that the IPCC has outlived its usefulness. That said, the confidence that if you drop a stone it will hit the ground is pretty close to 95%. Usually we talk about a 95% confidence interval. It's a kind of "gold standard". How many samples would be expected to fall outside predicted ranges for a 95% confidence limit? Give me an answer in percent. Now please back up that assertion that the IPCC have been wrong 100% of the time. Doesn't that show that the figure of 100% at least, is incorrect? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:57pm Vuk11 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:35pm:
You're gambling against a 95% probability. Is that a rational bet? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:01pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:39pm:
You said Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:02pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:01pm:
I was saying 95% is not 100% Not sure how you missed that. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by longweekend58 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:03pm
I would like to know where this 95% comes from. Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:03pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:57pm:
But we aren't dealing in absolute and specific probabilities. We are dealing with vague definitions, with increased error bands that's all. The people giving us the 95% probability have almost no reliability. Especially when they have graduates helping author they're papers and claiming to be the world top experts. I especially don't like the cherry picking of data, as seen in Burt Rutan's analysis. No matter which way you play it they twist things for specific point of view. No matter how much you hate them the NIPCC was created specifically to keep their BS in check. (Please don't if you were going to, get us started on funding bias) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:05pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:36pm:
You've had a lot of experience trolling, haven't you young simpleton? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:06pm muso wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:54pm:
Can we be certain that the ocean rising is not natural at all? Besides if the IPCC says it isn't? I would love to see an argument for and against the ocean rise being man made. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:06pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:02pm:
To what end? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:07pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:05pm:
Not one single link, huh? You searched and searched, but came up with nothing. I trust you've learned a lesson. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:09pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:06pm:
My comment was quite clear. Take the time to read it again. I'll type it slowly this time, so you can keep up: "I'm 95% sure that 100% of the alarmists will ignore the fact that 95% is not 100%." |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:09pm Vuk11 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:06pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:10pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:09pm:
Trolling again, young simpleton. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:10pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:09pm:
It was a question, not a demand. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:12pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:07pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:13pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:10pm:
A question to what end? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:10pm:
Let's take a look at what's happening here: 1. You make false accusations about me. 2. When asked to provide evidence, you either change the subject, ignore the request, or say "History". 3. When things are explained to you and you still don't understand what is being said you resort to name calling. 4. I have continually said on this forum that AGW may indeed be happening, and that I have no problem with Governments taking precautionary measures. 5. Despite all of this, you continue to call me a 'troll' and a 'simpleton'. I'll let others be the judge. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:20pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:09pm:
What I mean is this: Quote:
How can they measure minuscule rises in height of a moving surface across the entire world ? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:20pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:13pm:
rhetorical question: A question asked merely for effect with no answer expected. The answer may be obvious or immediately provided by the questioner. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:35pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:20pm:
Sounds like you're backpedalling (and yes, I know it wasn't your question, but you have taken up the baton). Backpedalling with a baton; pardon the mixed metaphor. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:38pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:35pm:
I'll just add it to your list of false accusations against me. At least there was no name-calling this time. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:47pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
To be clear, I regard you as a teenage troll who is using this forum for onanistic "fun". |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:50pm
;) ;) ;)
Too much winking will make you go blind. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:53pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:47pm:
So many times, I've lost count. # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:47pm:
You make hasty assumptions; that's where the problem lies. Just because I'm not convinced that AGW is happening (although I'm not certain), it doesn't mean I object to precautionary action. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm Vuk11 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:20pm:
I was also sceptical of this, which is why I read the technical specifications for the Jason 2 Satellite (to be specific, the Poseidon-3 precision altimeter installed on that satellite). There is a thread dedicated to this. Three independant agencies came up with a precision of between 0.4 to 0.6mm in terms of annual increase in sea level change. If you are genuinely sceptical, I suggest that you do the same. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm # wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:47pm:
To be clear, I couldn't care less what you regard me as. Moreover, I'm not adverse to onanism or fun. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Sep 28th, 2013 at 6:02pm muso wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
Cheers I'll have a look. Of course I'm genuine! Challenge.jpg (11 KB | 38
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 6:52pm Vuk11 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 6:02pm:
Sorry. Good to hear it. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:28pm
Looks like crazy climate kooks want us to believe in disastrous man made global warming for exactly the same reason as crazy religious kooks want us to believe in their own crazy religion ... ie. because we said so ;D
Don't worry oh mighty science I have not given up on you, I have not succumbed to mass hysteria in your place :) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:31pm
When you can actually make intelligent comments about the reports, people will start to take you seriously. Until then, you just add to the noise.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:33pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:28pm:
That's exactly right. "We're 95% sure ... 97% of scientists agree ... " Are we dealing with maths or science? Faith, more like it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu3VTngm1F0 |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Rider on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:37pm longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:03pm:
Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:41pm Rider wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:37pm:
Yes. The answer is: "if you don't believe in AGW then you are endangering the lives of your kids, and your kids' kids, and their kids, and you will undoubtedly be the cause of the ultimate destruction of the planet Earth. You just have to believe us, because we know we're right and thus we are better than you. Just trust us on the 95%" |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Rider on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:48pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:41pm:
Ahhh, but is there a majority consensus of the consensus.... :D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:52pm Rider wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:48pm:
Just trust me, OK? ;) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Rider on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:06pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:52pm:
haha well I can't argue with that UN style of logic. At any rate, kids these days get it too easy, they'll need a challenge in the future ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:08pm Rider wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:06pm:
Exactly! I've been saying that for ages. Every generation has their challenges. I love my kids to bits, but poo, they'll just have to learn to adapt. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:26pm Rider wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 7:37pm:
Apparently the only answer put forward so far by global warming cranks as to why we must turn our lives upside down to appease the great god of global warming is this pathetic effort ... Yesterday, a reporter asked me how the IPCC came up with the 95% number. Here is the exchange that I had with him: Reporter: I’m hoping you can answer a question about the upcoming IPCC report. When the report states that scientists are “95 percent certain” that human activities are largely to cause for global warming, what does that mean? How is 95 percent calculated? What is the basis for it? And if the certainty rate has risen from 90 in 2007 to 95 percent now, does that mean that the likelihood of something is greater? Or that scientists are just more certain? And is there a difference? JC: The 95% is basically expert judgment, it is a negotiated figure among the authors. The increase from 90-95% means that they are more certain. How they can justify this is beyond me. Reporter: You mean they sit around and say, “How certain are you?” “Oh, I feel about 95 percent certain. Michael over there at Penn State feels a little more certain. And Judy at Georgia Tech feels a little less. So, yeah, overall I’d say we’re about 95 percent certain.” Please tell me it’s more rigorous than that. JC: Well I wasn’t in the room, but last report they said 90%, and perhaps they felt it was appropriate or politic that they show progress and up it to 95%. Reporter: So it really is as subjective as that? JC: As far as I know, this is what goes on. All this has never been documented. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:40pm They'll be looking back at us in 100 years time and laughing their freakin' heads off. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:51pm
How many years more can we reasonably expect to live? - and I mean the posters on this blog. I wonder what they'll be saying 25 years from now.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:53pm muso wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:51pm:
"Have you heard the new One Direction song?" :-/ :) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:38pm greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 8:53pm:
You mean the New Directions hit of 2038 called "The smell of death" ? Quote:
http://www.psr.org/resources/climate-change-and-famine.html |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:59pm
Lots of DENIALIST crack pots out tonight.
You can smell the stench of their pathetic ignorance, deranged conspiracy paranoia and individualistic sociopathic greed from many miles. Like most things there is always a good side, and that's the fact that these ignorant clown freaks aren't in positions of power. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 28th, 2013 at 11:05pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 10:59pm:
1. Do you know what "ignorance" means? How are skeptics "ignorant"? 2. What "conspiracy"? Can you elaborate? 3. "Greed"? Please explain. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 29th, 2013 at 7:30am greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
Meanwhile, the bush fire season has started early. I live on the land, so I'll have less time to spend here. According to the vast majority of the best qualified, global warming will lead to conditions like those responsible for the early start of the bush fire season becoming more common. Global warming; remember that? You treat it as a joke. If you'd ever helped a neighbour put down stock, still walking around but so badly burned that they won't survive, some on their knees because they've walked out of their hooves, maybe you'd take the issue seriously. Probably not; it's all a game to you. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Sep 29th, 2013 at 9:29am # wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 7:30am:
Gee thats never happened before ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Sep 29th, 2013 at 12:39pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:36am:
Yeah its not from science that they get this 95% certainty...?? Its from taking a vote......as simple as hands up.......!!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 29th, 2013 at 1:39pm Quote:
wasn't in the room...but thought I'd guess anyway. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:49am
How can governments pass a tax on the air we breath, when the so called specialists say with a vote that its 95% certain.
Shouldn't it be the science that dictates policy rather than a vote based on opinion.......?????? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 30th, 2013 at 2:21pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 9:29am:
Who but the most degenerate will do what the best minds warn increases the risk? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Sep 30th, 2013 at 3:00pm # wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 2:21pm:
Are you saying that anthropogenic co2 emissions are responsible for natural disasters......???? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:06pm Ajax wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 3:00pm:
Are you denying that the best minds warn that global warming, which is substantially anthropogenic, increases the risk? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:23pm Ajax wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 3:00pm:
nice try....lol Alteration of the globe's climatic conditions via human induced rises in CO2 emissions cannot be used to explain any individual natural event or disaster. Its all about intensity and frequency over a stochastically significant time scale/frame Mr Ajax (you know, medium to long trends etc - you know this right?) Of course you already know this (at least I hope that you do anyway) One must be very careful when they gallop in here with spin and distorted loaded questions totally defenceless. One can be slaughtered in public like the lambs of Jacob. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:53pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:23pm:
Are you kidding? I doubt if he appreciates the distinction between stochastic and deterministic. This is Mr Nowarmingsince1998 you're talking to. The concept of statistical significance is lost on him. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:55pm # wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:06pm:
Why couldn't you just answer with a simple 'yes' or 'no' ? Try it: Are you saying that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are responsible for natural disasters? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:04pm
Let's just make it the ambiguous question thread.
natural disasters are caused by climate change bottles are black. cancer is caused by cigarette smoking. Three similar phrases. All ambiguous. All can be answered yes or no depending on context. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:20pm muso wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:53pm:
Maybe he is a string theorist - a foot in both camps |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:34am muso wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:04pm:
The point is individual cases cant be definitively attributed to a specific causal driver. Even in the case of lung cancer for a long term smoker. A person that has been smoking for many decades may well have contracted lung cancer anyway if they didn't smoke. All the doctor can advise is that its MOST LIKELY that your lung cancer was caused by your smoking. What gives us a clearer picture is looking at the cancer rate in a large sample of smokers and comparing that rate with a control and a sample of people who don't smoke at all. There are effects however, driven by the warming of the planet that don't involve individual events such as rising sea levels or coral reef disappearance etc. Like Sagan once said "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" And the global scientific community has reached a point in the AGW journey whereby the AGW denialist stance requires extraordinary evidence and rationale to maintain For a person to even be uncommitted on the human drivers of Global warming is rather silly IMO. (although I can understand those that don't care) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 1st, 2013 at 7:05am
Well we can say with 95% confidence that the tsunami that overwhelmed Fukushima was a natural disaster that was not caused by rising CO2.
On the other hand, can we say that increasing CO2 emissions will lead to Southern Hemisphere cyclone tracks migrating further South on average over the next 50 years? According to AR5, this is a likely (55-100% probability) scenario. That will have the result of increasing the risk of tropical cyclone damage in cities like Brisbane. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 1st, 2013 at 8:02am greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:55pm:
Seeing as how you're back:- # wrote on Aug 10th, 2013 at 10:17am:
The invitation was repeated many times: http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1365821673/66#66 http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1365821673/55#55 http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1365821673/53#53 http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1365821673/33#33 http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1365821673/31#31 http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1375841990/57#57 You repeatedly failed to detail a rational basis for your denial. Your behaviour therefore doesn't qualify as scepticism. Forum software records your history. Irritating, isn't it? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 1st, 2013 at 8:08am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:34am:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 1st, 2013 at 12:33pm # wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 8:08am:
Approximately 7% of people in western societies are sociopaths - they tend to end up as CEOs, Bankers and some politicians etc. A further few 1 or 2% are psychopathic to some extent, not always resulting in criminal outcomes. So the fact that there are people out there who DONT CARE doesn't surprise me at all. What concerns me is when these sociopaths end up in positions of power, both in the political and corporate realms. We all know what Abbott will do and why. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:16pm
I commend Tony Abbott for his courage to disregard the pseudo science coming out of that politically motivated body called the IPCC.
Lets hope more governments around the world throw the AGW religion in the dust bin where it belongs. And get back to governing their own countries for their own citizens. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:46pm Ajax wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:16pm:
Abbott is a corporatized right wing lawyer He doesn't even have a minister for science We all know what Abbott-oire is all about don't we ladies and gentlemen Taking us down the road of short term profit and racist fascism, which will do great damage to our nation for many decades to come, I hope you live long enough to see it To witness it. To repent. To realise your delusional greed and what you supported which has sentenced future generations to a life of excrement and carnage You should be utterly ashamed of yourself |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:50pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:46pm:
I would prefer that than being in financial slavery for ever to the United Nations, not just us but our children and their children and so on as long as pricing carbon exists. I don't want the United Nations telling Australia how and when she can use her resources. They should stick to the cuddly polar bears and let nations rule themselves.. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 1st, 2013 at 3:13pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 12:33pm:
OK, now I see where you're coming from. At the last election, between Abbott and Rudd, we had a choice of psychopaths. Did we make the best choice? And what of greggerypeccary, and the like? The more I think about it, the more apt simpleton seems. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 1st, 2013 at 6:04pm Ajax wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 1:50pm:
No need, 83% of Australias so called resources are foreign owned by big multinational corporations. Mainly in the hands of US corporations (~56%). They pay very little tax in Australia and only employ about 3% of the workforce. In fact Australias resource sector actually costs the Tax payer to have it operating in this nation. The UN also overseas racial and humanitarian matters. And AUstralia is an international disgrace with respect to these important issues. The UN funded IPCC report is actually quite mild in its predictions of CLimate change effects. Perhaps you should read some peer reviewed scientific literature? I assume that you have at least done this prior to arriving at your ridiculous conspiracy and denialist madness |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:12am # wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 3:13pm:
Don't fall into that trap. I wouldn't be too hasty to judge his politics on the basis of his clouded views on global warming. In fact I think you'd be surprised. There are those who claim that I'm Left Wing and others that equate greggerypeccary with the Right. In fact you can reverse those two conclusions. Then there is our friend Ajax with his blistering (almost Marxist conspiratorial) criticism of Milton Friedman and corporations. Now I'll get everybody offside I suspect, but I equate best with Friedman's Right Wing Libertarian stance, but like Friedman, I agree that companies that pollute should be taxed so that a product's cost to society is reflected in the price of that product. 1.Atmospheric Physics has no political allegiance. 2. Not everybody votes on single issues. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 11:52am muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:12am:
On global warming, greggerypeccary pretends to have an open mind. His behaviour belies that. Those who believe, one way or another, can point to sources of their belief. I've never known greggerypeccary to substantiate anything he's said. He's therefore given no reason to suppose that he believes anything he says. Why would anyone say something they don't believe? All things considered, I've come to the conclusion that greggerypeccary tends to say whatever he hopes will provoke a reaction from which he can derive perverse pleasure. In addition to http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1380325015/87#87, a quick search turned up a couple more posts which to me are obvious trolls: http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1376908269/15#15 and http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1375834924/18#18. I've no doubt there are many more. You're opinion might differ, but to me greggerypeccary is no more than a troll (at least on global warming). Trolling on such a significant issue is the mark of a simpleton. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 12:33pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:12am:
Exactly. I doubt if there are many on here who are as far to the left as I am. One thing you can always count on in this forum, is that some people will jump to crazy conclusions and make wild assumptions. I'm an open-minded sceptic when it comes to AGW, so people immediately think I'm a Liberal supporter. Wrong. They also assume that just because of my open-minded scepticism, I'm opposed to governments taking precautionary action against the possible threat of AGW. Wrong. Pffft. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 12:51pm # wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 7:30am:
au contraire What I do treat as a joke is closed-minded fools who have no capacity to think for themselves, and who jump to crazy conclusions and make wild assumptions based on both ignorance and arrogance. Naturally, I find you extremely amusing. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 1:04pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 12:33pm:
I see, so you are sceptical about CO2 being a by-product of fossil fuel combustion and whether CO2 is a greenhouse gas/ very open minded |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 1:06pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 1:04pm:
No. Nice try though. You amuse me almost as much as # |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:11pm
Peccary is a bit of an outcast being a lefty "denier", funny how these things seem to go along political lines, I have to suffer the same indignity in my role as being a rabid right winger and yet also the worlds biggest atheist ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:21pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:11pm:
And I wouldn't have it any other way. This issue isn't about partisan politics, or consensus: it's about science. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:49pm
Maybe you should talk about the science then. I shouldn't be so hard on Ajax. At least he tries to do that.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:55pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:49pm:
Its not really a scientific topic is it?, more religious or political. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:06pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:49pm:
I've dealt with many alarmists. What I have learned is that it's a complete waste of time discussing the science with them They simply do not wish to listen to anything that differs from their own preconceived, arrogant views. As the previous poster said: it's more like a religion with you alarmists. In all my years, I have never encountered a more closed-minded group of people (except perhaps religious fundamentalists). Ajax will learn soon enough. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:10pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:06pm:
....but never dealt with Bolt or Moncton. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:12pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:10pm:
Exactly. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:15pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:06pm:
Just skim through the latest IPCC Report and say that it's nothing to do with science while maintaining a straight face. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:16pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 1:06pm:
You accept the premise the co2 levels are rising and that humans are responsible for this rise. You accept the fact that co2 is a greenhouse gas. So what exactly are you denying? Do you even understand your own DENIALIST stance? I am keen to learn from the master DENIALIST as to why he frequents his religious temples and why he worships the bolt priest and Moncton charlatan Don't be afraid Greg, you're amongst friends here. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:25pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:15pm:
The latest IPCC report is a political document not a scientific document, it has absolutely no scientific basis at all with regard to real science. Just watch the Donna Framboise interview at the 50 to 1 project , if you still have faith in the IPCC after watching that then you may need professional help ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:32pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:15pm:
I never said that the IPCC Report has nothing to do with science. However, alarmists like you and the monkey boy manage to treat it like a religious document. You latch onto one piece of evidence and then faith takes over from there. The IPCC Report becomes your bible, and you won't hear a bad word said about it. According to the closed-minded alarmists there's no way any of the scientific information in it could be wrong. You don't seem to understand the basic principles of science, and your minds are completely closed. As I said before, I've never encountered a more closed-minded or arrogant group of people in my life. Moreover, I've lost count of the amount of times that you and other alarmists have used the term 'consensus'. Just more evidence of your complete lack of understanding when it comes to science. AGW is certainly a scientific theory, based on sound scientific principles, however, you alarmists manage to arrogantly turn it into nothing more than a faith based religion. Ajax will learn soon enough. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 4:27pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:32pm:
Actually I don't bother too much with the IPCC reports. The IPCC reports tend to be too conservative due to their numerous inputs. Their conclusions are generally diluted and conservative. Being a researcher myself I have access to numerous scientific data bases that have excellent search tools. I generally base my assessment of scientific theories and their supporting evidence on the peer reviewed literature and it is this approach that has led me to feeling VERY concerned about AGW, and the serious climate, environmental and ecological disasters that await humanity if Carbon releases aren't mitigated substantially. So when you gallop in here with your Bolt sunglasses on and residual intellect it can only lead to ONE thing Isn't that right greggy boy! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:29pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 4:27pm:
You might want to do a bit of research on the English language. http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1380325015/112#112 |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:33pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:29pm:
So one of your major sources for research is OZPOLITIC? interesting.... It must have taken a long time for you to arrive at your nickname? Did you have a difficult upbringing Greggy boy? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:43pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:33pm:
I take that back: You might want to do |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:08pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:21pm:
Greggery is still trying to own words like a tryhard chess player! How boring is the wine getting mate??? How many people kick the bucket finally realising red wine is poo. Oh, switch to the white poo then ay love?? Yeh good one- a toffee nose for a reputation! The kids must love you for company ay buddy!??! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:11pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:25pm:
Innocent can't define "politics" :-* :-* :-* :-* :-* ** Don't cry buddy will ya!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:23pm # wrote on Oct 1st, 2013 at 8:08am:
They think being hardcore bean counters denying all responsibility makes the world system stronger! They believe if something has to be done it will be done regardless of whatever they do or say. Basically, they think words don't matter- none of them believe in religion of course even though they use it to promote their supposedly pious nature. Why any earthly government official would try to use their belief in a heavenly government to promote themselves in this world is rightfully questioned on it at all times... :o :o |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:53pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:23pm:
And by hardcore beancounters we mean little John Howard who ended up overseeing the Biggest spending federal government in Australia's history. Even though he was criticised for not spending on infrastructure. Amazing feats of self delusional corruption and immorality these right wing corporatized conservatives |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:55pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:08pm:
He has a point there little Greggy You are up against the ropes now and cant defend yourself very well I told you so! See what happens when you follow the path of Beelzebub? monkeysmoking1_002.jpg (17 KB | 36
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:03pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 7:53pm:
No one likes Johnny: he did recognise that for the Liberal party to keep itself electable it needed to recognise climate change early in the picture however. :o ::) ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:31pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:03pm:
Remember those glory days? When the only 3 nations NOT to ratify Kyoto were Russia, Australia and the USA. Then Russia signed on to Kyoto which left Howard and Bush as the only denialist governments in the world. Then Rudd was elected in 2007 and did the unthinkable by signing Kyoto leaving the good old USA who has still yet to join the civilised world. Amazing that War mongering US military fascist imperialised corporatized scandal of a nation even had the AUDACITY to attend the Copenhagen meeting and try to route it with its Obama hypocrisy and double talk. What a world we live - wrong people in charge, wrong people puling the purse strings |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:44pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:31pm:
So he didn't ratify it: that is simply them acknowledging climate change whilst keeping some image of the hard nosed decision maker image alive in the eyes of the tryhard upper middle-class bean counters amongst us. It's all image: the point I was making is that Howard had to acknowledge it to some degree for the Libs to keep a credible image alive. The point you are making is that that also had to keep the hard nosed tryhard image alive to entice all the tryhard upper middle-class to keep voting for them. It's always a balance: it's the very same balance between nerd and tuffguy that we all make every second every day. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:53pm
Just be thankfull that at the end of the day all of this man made climate change horsesh#t is a bunch of crap, another five years of no warming should see it off, of course we will still be stuck with the same f#ckwit believers, just as surely as we are stuck with seventh day adventists that want to bleed to death but f#ckwittery knows no bounds, thats how the whole global warming scare got off the ground to start with ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:57pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 8:44pm:
Howards acknowledgement of AGW amounted to him pushing Turnbull forward as a moderately reasonable Liberal party clown who made some conservative rhetoric about Australia doing something about curbing carbon emissions - like shoving char in the ground |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:02pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 4:27pm:
The latest IPCC report is worth reading, although I agree that it has been hijacked by politicians and is considerably watered down - particularly the non technical parts that they actually understand. I can see the frustration in many of the mainstream climatologists. I also have databases at my disposal. You have to read between the lines to establish that when China cleans up its sulphate aerosol (DMS) emissions, the predicted warming will eventuate. Currently, the observed temperatures are in the lower range of predictions, with perhaps one or two points outside the error bands. Of course at a 95% confidence level, 2.5% of observations falling outside the 95% limits is to be expected. I don't accept every finding in that report. I challenge every finding. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:12pm
Did you know that atmospheric co2 levels are at historical lows and if they got down to 150ppm life on Earth would cease, did you know that all plant and animal life developed during a period of far greater co2 content, are you all aware that life on Earth flourished during times when co2 content was 2000 ppm, did you know that humans can survive co2 levels of 5000 ppm?, f#ck me dead how did people become so scientifically illiterate, probably because they let their political views overwhelm their scientific views thats why.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:19pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:02pm:
I don't ignore the IPCC report entirely - just don't rely on it. I prefer to survey the scientific literature and get a picture of what is occurring in the latest research. The second thread of information I use are the official research and monitoring bodies such as CSIRO, NASA, the various EPAs, University departments, meteorological etc |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:21pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:12pm:
Most of those are half truths. 5000ppm is the exposure standard for healthy individuals working in elevated CO2 for 40 hours per week in the US, or 5 days at 8 hours per day in Australia. At continuous levels of 3000 ppm, healthy individual have reported calcification effects in body organs. Research preganant women and submarines. Typically short term CO2 in submarines can be around 3000ppm. It's not sustainable though. The CO2 concentration has already been very close to 150 ppm and life still exists on Earth. Google C4 photosynthesis and CAM photosynthesis. C4 photosynthesis is thought to have evolved during periods of low atmospheric CO2. Low CO2 affects some terrestrial plant life, but not animal life. So is climate sensitivity high or low? You can't have it both ways. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:26pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:12pm:
Yes the world when CO2 levels hovered around 10,000 ppmv (~1% v/v) earth_ancient_volcano_1280.jpg (179 KB | 38
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:30pm muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:21pm:
No sorry but 150ppm is the generally accepted level at which life on Earth would cease, currently we are at historically low levels of co2, the only way is up, anyone that wants to restrict co2 levels is an enemy of life, studies have shown that co2 levels of 1200ppm have amazing positive effects on plant and tree growth, of course that doesn't help much for the end of the worlders though ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:45pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:30pm:
....and we all know what happens to innocent bystanders don't we innocent bystander? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:54pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:45pm:
Is that really your considered response?, you should be embarrassed. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:58pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:54pm:
give me a good reason to respond to your cultist denialist religious dogma and I may consider responding to your residual excremental public comments Now be gone with you putrid freak clown of Hades |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 10:36pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:30pm:
I'd love to see the study that supports that little gem. 1. Low CO2 only affects plants with C3 Photosynthesis, but not C4 or CAM photosynthesis. 2. It doesn't affect animals in any way. Your claim is simply daft. Elevated levels of CO2, even at 1200ppm have been demonstrated to affect concentration and cause headaches and difficulty in making decisions. Prolonged concentration at 3000ppm can result in miscarriages in pregnant women and levels from 1000- 3000ppm have been demonstrated to cause renal calcification and testicular calcification with resulting loss of fertility. You must provide a link to your source. Here is one of mine: http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/ehp.1104789.pdf Given that some urban environments are already at about 500ppm in the open, a general elevation in atmospheric CO2 is likely to result in dangerous levels in urban areas. For paleo CO2 levels: Barnola, J.-M., D. Raynaud, C. Lorius, and N.I. Barkov. 2003. Historical CO2 record from the Vostok ice core. Look at unsmoothed CO2 data. Check the value at 67,500 years BP. It's 153.7 ppm CO2. Also: http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/tripati.etal.sci.2009.pdf Tripati et al 2009 - CO2 levels dropped to 150 ppm during late Pliocene glaciations. Also check this graph: http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yearslarge.gif (Courtesy of your mate Anthony Watts.) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 10:57pm
muso seems to have an innocent bystander up against the ropes
see what happens when you read too much Bolt with your breakfast? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:10am Life flourished on Earth when co2 was up to 20 X what it is today. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:11am What are the Allowable Limits of CO2 EXPOSURE Carbon dioxide exposure limits PEL and TLV set by OSHA and NIOSH Carbon dioxide is regulated for diverse purposes but not as a toxic substance. bullet The U.S. EPA CO2 exposure limits: The U.S. EPA recommends a maximum concentration of Carbon dioxide CO2 of 1000 ppm (0.1%) for continuous exposure. bullet ASHRAE standard 62-1989 recommends an indoor air ventilation standard of 20 cfm per person of outdoor air or a CO2 level which is below 1000ppm. bullet NIOSH CO2 exposure limits: NIOSH recommends a maximum concentration of carbon dioxide of 10,000 ppm or 1% (for the workplace, for a 10-hr work shift with a ceiling of 3.0% or 30,000 ppm for any 10-minute period). These are the highest threshold limit value (TLV) and permissible exposure limit (PEL) assigned to any material. NIOSH's recommended CO2 exposure limit for 15 minutes is 3.0% or 30,000 ppm . A CO2 level of 4% (40,000 ppm) is designated by NIOSH as immediately dangerous to life or health. bullet OSHA CO2 exposure limits: The U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Safety & Health Administration, OSHA, has set Permissible Exposure Limits for Carbon Dioxide in workplace atmospheres at... bullet 10,000 ppm of CO2 measured as a Time Weighted Average (TWA) level of exposure bullet OSHA has set 30,000 ppm of CO2 as a Short-Term Exposure Limit (STEL). bullet OSHA has also set a Transitional Limit of 5,000 ppm CO2 exposure TWA. bullet [OSHA's former limit for carbon dioxide was 5000 ppm as an 8-hour TWA.] bullet OSHA recommends a lowest oxygen concentration of 19.5% in the work place for a full work-shift exposure. As we calculated above, for the indoor workplace oxygen level to reach 19.5% (down from its normal 20.9% oxygen level in outdoor air) by displacement of oxygen by CO2, that is, to reduce the oxygen level by about 6%, the CO2 or carbon dioxide level would have to increase to about 1.4% 14,000 ppm. In summary, OSHA, NIOSH, and ACGIH occupational exposure standards are 0.5% CO2 (5,000 ppm) averaged over a 40 hour week, 3% (3,000 ppm) average for a short-term (15 minute) exposure [we discuss and define "short term exposure limits" STEL below], and 4% (40,000 ppm) as the maximum instantaneous limit considered immediately dangerous to life and health. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:27am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:10am:
That's based on the original Geocarb project (Berner et al). Do you notice the error in that determination? It's anything from 2000 ppm to 8000 ppm. Berner stated that the study should not be used as an indication of Phanerozoic CO2 levels and in the the original study, the graph just showed changes in CO2 without concentrations. By the way, that CO2 peak occurred during the Cambrian period. At that time, there were no land plants or animals. We've had this conversation before on here. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:28am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:11am:
If anything, that confirms what I said before. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:39am
Funny how the climate hysterics have determined that 280ppm is the ideal level for co2, even though levels have fluctuated wildly throughout Earths history, meanwhile greenhouses are fed co2 at levels over a 1000ppm, I guess no one told the plants what the ideal level was. ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:41am
Narsty stuff that co2 ;D
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are bolstering plant life throughout the world, environmental scientists report in a newly published peer-reviewed study. The findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters, are gleaned from satellite measurements of global plant life, and contradict assertions by activists that global warming is causing deserts to expand, along with devastating droughts. http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/07/10/global-warming-no-satellites-show-carbon-dioxide-is-causing-global-greening/ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:42am
Isn't it funny that the "greens" are dead against the greening of the planet ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:43am Here is the original caption for that graph: Quote:
So the maximum value on that line is 20 and the preindustrial CO2 is 300. 20 x 300 = 6000ppm. Of course, it's immaterial that the ocean floor temperature was around 28 degrees C, compared to about 4 degrees today. There was no terrestrial life at that time. That's a famous Monckton blooper by the way. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:46am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:41am:
Yeah. The projections show that some latitudes will benefit from moderately higher CO2 but on the balance, the effect will be negative. The problem is that it won't stay at that level. For higher projections still, all latitudes are projected crop losses of up to 50%. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:49am
Rubbish :)
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:52am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:39am:
Well I'm not aware that anybody has determined an ideal level of CO2. Maybe some over-enthusiastic newspaper reports, but I doubt if any responsible scientist would say that. Some plants benefit from increased CO2 levels, but 80% of agriculture is currently not irrigated and we have a growing world population to feed. We're on a knife edge as far as widespread famine is concerned. CO2 levels were higher during the Jurassic, but it was a hot steamy place. You certainly couldn't grow any of the staple food crops in those conditions. This issue is not about cuddly polar bears. It's about the continuation of civilisation. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:54am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:49am:
Do you have a link for that, or was it a visceral reaction? I notice that you haven't backed up your claim that all life would die at 150 ppm CO2 and have wandered away from that point. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:55am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:42am:
I'm not a Green. I'm a survivalist. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:57am
Too much "www.scepticalscience" will rot yer brains ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 8:03am
Moore: 'CO2 is lower today than it has been through most of the history of life on earth...At 150 ppm CO2 all plants would die, resulting in virtual end of life on earth'
http://www.climatedepot.com/2012/07/13/greenpeace-cofounder-dr-patrick-moore-thank-goodness-we-came-along-reversed-150-millionyear-trend-of-reduced-co2-levels-in-global-atmosphere-long-live-the-humans/ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 8:07am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:57am:
How about Columbia University and the College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Florida,? http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2002/20/c020p259.pdf This shows crop losses of up to 55%. Check Table 2. Quote:
That's just one of many agricultural studies that take into account changes in temperature CO2 and precipitation. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 8:11am Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 8:03am:
Patrick Moore was an Astronomer, and there was no scientific paper involved. It was a false statement as I've demonstrated. Atmospheric CO2 has been around 150 ppm several times in the last 400,000 years and also during the late Pliocene, 3 million years ago. The evidence that it's nonsense is the fact that life didn't go extinct during those periods. C3- photosynthesising plants might have been at a low, but they survived. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 10:10am muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 8:07am:
Gobbledeygook ;D Try this ... http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 10:37am
That actually confirms the "gobbledegook which you didn't bother to read. There is a short term improvement under some conditions (well watered, not too hot)
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 11:31am
Yeah sure, thats why satellites are showing a planet wide greening as plant life soaks up the extra co2, certain conditions my arse. ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:27pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 10:37am:
Define "short term". While you're at it, define "long term". And, most importantly, do your definitions of these terms ever change? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:46pm
This is getting tiresome and will no doubt try muso's patience, but here goes (again):
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 8:55pm:
a) you believe that all questions can be answered either 'yes' or 'no'. That is, you're a simpleton or; b) you pretend to believe so. That is, you're a troll. greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 12:33pm:
As I've already pointed out, you've given no cause to suppose that you believe a word you say. There's no reason to give you credit for any politics at all - a complete vacuum, in more ways than one. greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 12:33pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 12:51pm:
That reminds me of a comment I encountered while researching Andrew Khan (Poptech) Quote:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:21pm:
muso wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 2:49pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:06pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:32pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 3:32pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:50pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:27pm:
:-/ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:59pm # wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:46pm:
http://www.englishforeveryone.org/Topics/Reading-Comprehension.htm |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:24pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 11:31am:
That is predicted, even up to a concentration of 550 ppm, but not for all regions. The worst losses are above 2 degrees of warming. It might be an idea if you gained some knowledge of what you're arguing against instead of relying on blogs. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:25pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 10:37am:
Define "short term". While you're at it, define "long term". And, most importantly, do your definitions of these terms ever change? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:27pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:24pm:
I rely on peer reviewed science, if thats not good enough for you I don't know what is :D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:31pm
THe IPCC has a number of scenarios. I think I explained that it relates to a warming of about 2 degrees against the average temperature of the decade up to 1990.
In this context, I mean that short term is up to that level of warming. Once you go significantly above that level, some more serious effects start to kick in. That's the level that was selected for minimum risk. You're best to refer to the IPCC Report for more, but I can explain in greater depth if you want. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:33pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:31pm:
Is this another one of the famous IPCC models |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:36pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:27pm:
Well the Patrick Moore was straight from a blog. It wasn't peer reviewed science. I haven't seen anything from you in that category yet. Of course there are a couple of publications out there that don't have much of a Peer Review Process. Environment and Energy accepts all kind of oddball papers, including one that claimed that the sun was made of iron. They went through the peer review process, and it failed all reviews. They published it anyway. There is another. I can't remember its name offhand. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:38pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:33pm:
The IPCC doesn't have any models. The IPCC reports draw on virtually all climate research. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:41pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:31pm:
Very unlikely, considering you can't define a simple term. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:43pm
You're trolling. I explained what I meant. "Short term" is not a scientific term. I was just trying to explain it to you in those terms.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:45pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:43pm:
I'm not trolling at all. I'm asking a perfectly legitimate question in response to your post. In the context of your statement, what do you consider the be "short term"? You know exactly where I'm heading with my question, and you know it will expose a huge flaw in your "argument". Just another example of why the AGW alarmists simply cannot be taken seriously. Once they know things aren't going their way, they avoid all debate. White flag accepted. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:51pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:36pm:
I told you to have a look at this http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php its got lots of peer reviewed experiments of many plant types and the positive effects of more co2. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:25pm
It's not a representative cross section of papers. The agenda is pretty obvious when you see which "scientists" are involved.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:27pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:45pm:
Didn't I answer your question previously in terms of 2 degrees of warming? Wrong answer? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:37pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:25pm:
OMG you've got to be kidding me, you global warming hysterics are a riot, you just don't want to know do you, go and sacrifice a virgin, you'll feel a lot better ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:50pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:37pm:
That's the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. It's a private organisation owned by the Idso Family. If you look at the Staff, they are all Idsos. Most of the "papers" are not published in any scientific journal. They are self published by the Idso family. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:59pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 7:49am:
Guess who had a dismissive Daddykins! Mummy never helped you did she?? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 3:04pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 9:30pm:
um, SO I ONCE AGAIN NOTE THAT THIS CONVERSATION TOTALLY REJECTS THE NOTION THAT RATES OF CHANGE ARE IMPORTANT!! ...my my my how this conversation needs to be remined about the importance of rates of change... |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 3:15pm muso wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 2:50pm:
Ha ha I told you "skepticalscience" would rot yer brains, lets face it mate you're a crank ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 3:36pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:29pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 2nd, 2013 at 5:43pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:27pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:50pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 12:59pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:25pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:41pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 1:45pm:
Muso, does one who consistently contributes less than nothing deserve to remain? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am # wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 3:36pm:
Yes. He's a pretty decent bloke in other ways. I don't mean to stifle discussion, but when some people come out with disgusting personal attacks, we need to act in order to maintain some level of decency. At least you can't accuse him of that. He probably represents the views of most Australian laymen, and science in general is not too successful with risk communication. We need to improve. I need to improve. By the way, nobody has mentioned this as yet, but the title of this thread is a bit of a strawman in itself. Apart from the fact that 95% is a pretty high level of confidence, the actual level of confidence stated is 95 - 100 %. Quote:
Screenshot__2013-10-05_06:44:04.png (84 KB | 46
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 5th, 2013 at 9:58am
The IPCC have been way of with their predictions mainly because they believe their computer circulation models which show death and destruction will befall us if CO2 increases and that's because they tweak the computers for their desired outcome.
Therefore why should I have confidence in their OPINION that's OPINION not science fact because they aren't sure of anything. When they can actually tell us science facts instead of OPINION I might just listen. Until that time they are a waste of space and like some are suggesting should get the bugger out the way so science can progress without the political shackles. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:07am muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
The level of confidence of IPCC scientists is an interesting discussion in itself. Statistics can spew up all sorts of connotations even if used properly. If you were to place a bet on a horse and you knew beforehand that there was 95% chance of victory you would jump at the opportunity and place a huge bet. In quantum mechanics or more specifically experimental particle physics, the minimum level of confidence required to validate the existence of a new particle is typically 5σ levels which equates to 99.977%. This is the minimum level of confidence required to validate the detection of the higgs boson at the LHC. A 95% confidence level is somewhere between a 3 and 4 sigma level of confidence. Still quite good. I am not sure why the IPCC would quote such a subjective statistical figure. It's really a survey statistic. Deniers will jump at the fact that their seems to be 5% doubt amongst the IPCC contributors that the global warming is human driven. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:12am Ajax wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 9:58am:
You seem to have a 9 sigma level of confidence in your mentors Bolt and Moncton and they are specifically paid by their owners to lie and deceive the public so that fossil profits that continue just a Little bit longer. What moral right do you have to play dice with future generations? What moral right do you have to risk the future in order to satisfy some conspiracy ridden paranoia about global taxes and NWOs and cater for your hatred of green socialism? Socialism which you only support for the rich. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:22am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:12am:
Its hard pushing lies chimp, take a look at Dr. Suzuki on Q&A. and Tim Flannery who told us it would never rain in Australia again back in 2007 or so. Scare mongering is not my idea of science neither is political influence (IPCC). |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:27am Ajax wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:22am:
They said it would NEVER RAIN again? Who is lying now batman? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:58am
chimp you really have to grow up and face reality dude.
In 2007 Tim Flannery was appearing all over Australian media warning that RAIN was a thing of the past. Here is one of those interviews, the malarkey just ouzes from his mouth......???? http://www.abc.net.au/landline/content/2006/s1844398.htm Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 5th, 2013 at 12:17pm Ajax wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 10:58am:
the extreme flooding events in Queensland and Victoria, coupled with bushfires and droughts were also predictions of AGW long term. In Victoria for example, over a decade ago, the water level went from near full to dangerously low (<30%) in seasons. El Nino will return very soon and its historical effects will be amplified AGAIN by rising global temperatures. You should keep up with the basic facts rather than spreading distortions and fossil fuel spin as authorised by your spin mentors Moncton and Bolt. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 5th, 2013 at 12:46pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 12:17pm:
Idiotic tripe ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 5th, 2013 at 1:08pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 12:17pm:
chimp go put some soothing cream on that red arse of yours because its having an affect on your logic....!!! The IPCC don't know whether they're Arthur or Marthur on climate change. Source: AR5-Chapter 12. Table 12.4 page 78 Quote:
http://joannenova.com.au/ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 5th, 2013 at 1:41pm Ajax wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 1:08pm:
...but of course YOU and your lunatic right wing mentors Bolt and Moncton know and believe the CO2 level in the earths atmosphere should be ramped up unabated because Mr Ajax rejects the high school level science that validates AGW which warns us of serious climatic and ecosystem effects going forward. All because of a neurotic aversion to his paranoid view of the NWO and the taxation charlatans. What do you have against taxation by the way? 96% of the worlds inventions and ideas have been initially funded and developed courtesy of the tax payer - the state. 9and of course then handed to the private and corporate sectors who proceed to de-moralise it via the profit and slave fascist doctrine. Even the internet and the common PC was invented and developed by tax payers funding. What are you doing in this socialist realm? And of course ALL wars are funded by the tax payer, with the only profits going directly to the corporate and private sectors. You do know how it works Mr Ajax, don't you? Who makes the weapons in the USA and who pays for them? Who fights the wars? Who sends their children to the front line? Any congress senators sending their children to Iraq and afganastan? Any Bill Gates or Greenspans or Hollywood actors sending their kids to fight these imperial wars for profit and power? What about Jerry Seinfeld? Or George Bush? Or YOU! Are you putting your parachute on to drop into Syria or Iran? To fight the good fight for mother and country? they pay Australian defence personnel very well I hear when they serve overseas in conflicts - in fact not only do they give them a pay rise, but they give them a tax exemption mr Ajax Maybe Mr Ajax can join the troops overseas so he doesn't have to pay any of this EVIL tax to the state? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 5th, 2013 at 2:19pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 1:41pm:
Whether its abated or not CO2 will only increase...??? So why not put all those billions of dollars that we are sending overseas to good use here in our backyard..?? Maybe invest in green energy alternatives......!!!!!!....and the technology to make it so.....!!! Quote:
They can shove their OPINIONS where they fit...!!! I want scientific evidence...!!!...nothing else will suffice...!!! Source: AR5-Chapter 12. Table 12.4 page 78 Quote:
http://joannenova.com.au/ Quote:
Stop sitting on the fence, one day your balls are dangling on the NWO order side, the next their dangling in the opposite direction. Quote:
This is utter crap and you know it. Taxation that stays in our country for the benefit of all Australians i'm not against this. Taxation that goes to who knows who, like the 10% of Australia's carbon tax revenue going to the United nations, I think STINKS.........!!!!!!! Quote:
Has any of our journalists ever gone to one of our commando elite who have served in Iraq or Afganistan to ask them what psychological disorders they maybe suffering....???...due to engagement in war....???? What I want to know is WHY NOT......??????? Its a well known fact that men and women who have operated in the realms of war suffer psychological disorders, yet it seems to have been swept under the carpet in this country........!!!!!!! Now that's the sort of questions you should be asking banana breath........!!!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 5th, 2013 at 2:40pm Ajax wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 2:19pm:
You want scientific evidence? lol. really? there hasn't been any evidence of you operating in the scientific realm when posting on his forum. In fact you seem to regurgitate Boltisms and Monctonisms ad nauseam who spin their deceit via the fossil fuel funded propaganda sites. hardly scientific Mr Ajax. Wow, you have concern for Australias taxes going to the UN? You ignore the 9 billion dollars of tax payer funded subsidies and grants that the COAL industry gets EACH in Australia - just COAL!. Are concerned with the 1.9 trillion dollars that the Fossil fuel industry gets world wide via the tax payers? (IMF source - youre not going to dispute your beloved capitalist corporate fascist IMF are you?) You are silent on the fact that it actually COSTS the tax payer to have a mining and energy resource sector in Australia - even during a Boom period. Why? Well these corporations hardly pay any tax and are 83% foreign owned. In addition Mr Ajax, the sector only employs about 3% of Australians, less than the tourism industry in Queensland. And of course if the world follows your lunatic self destructive pathway, the Great Barrier Reef will surely shrink. Smart move Mr Ajax - but of course you will most likely be gone by then - don't worry the next generations can deal with your paranoid based delusional pseudo scientific insanity. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:08pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 2:40pm:
;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:14pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 2:40pm:
Actually, it's you who repeatedly brings up Messrs Bolt and Monckton. That says an awful lot. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:58pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:14pm:
* I've long considered trolling a sign of mental illness. That illness, I deduce, is probably a form of sociopathy. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:05pm # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:58pm:
You could, if you so desired, actually take a little time to address the excellent point I have made. Scroll back through this, and any other AGW thread, and see who mentions Messrs Bolt and Monckton first. My point is quite valid. You shall see. None of the sceptics on here pay any attention to the two aforementioned men, however, Chimp, yourself, and many other AGW alarmists seem obsessed with these gentlemen. Perhaps it's time you spent a little less time calling people names (which is all you seem to do lately) and instead adopt an objective view on what's actually being said. Just a friendly suggestion (people get bored with name-calling very quickly). |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:15pm
The funny thing is Bolt and Monckton don't claim anything at all, they simply research the information of others and pass it on in order for everyone to get a balanced view, the global warming hysterics have this image of the pair of them in white lab coats cooking up faulty data LOL ... such is their madness ;D
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:23pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
And that's exactly what the alarmists want to avoid: balance. They're all for censorship, rather than listening to different points of view. #, for example, was calling for me to be banned becasue he doesn't like me: a) asking the difficult questions; b) pointing out inconvenient truths, and; c) presenting different points of view. # spends his entire time on this forum calling me (and others) names, yet he calls for me to be banned. Why is that? Just another question he'll ignore (before calling me yet another name). His constant abuse speaks volumes. Now, I wonder if he will address my excellent point a few posts back: i.e. the alarmists are always the first to mention Bolt, not the open-minded sceptics. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:33pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:05pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:23pm:
You're a persistent troll, I'll give you that. You've evidently had a great deal of experience. One of these days, you might actually make a substantial point. But only if it will provoke a reaction from which you can derive perverse pleasure. Anyhow, enough of feeding the troll. I have to feed myself. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:39pm # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:33pm:
Case in point. "# spends his entire time on this forum calling me (and others) names ... " Once again, he avoided a legitimate question and instead resorted to personal abuse. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:40pm # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:33pm:
Ha ha I think what you are trying to say is please stop kicking my arse its getting very sore |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:57pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:40pm:
I suppose I'll allow him some time to apply some ointment. Although, I don't suspect he'll be back for more (unless, of course, he enjoys having a sore arse). |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:12pm # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:33pm:
If humble pie is your food of choice, you shan't go hungry. Bon appetit, my friend. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 5th, 2013 at 7:51pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:05pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 5:05pm:
Substantiation is generally archived by links and quotes. For example: greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
The audience responds best when you show that you respect them. Your behaviour shows no respect. Deflating your ego a bit would benefit you, as well. Just until it's smaller than the planet. ;) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 8:03pm # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 7:51pm:
You have a very long history of seeing only that which you want to see. Your admission here comes as no great surprise to any of us, #. So, how was the pie? Did you have it with cream? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 5th, 2013 at 8:27pm Too easy. Time for a new challenge. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:23am muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
All things considered, it seems more likely to me that he's saying what will provoke a response. That varies depending on the board, so his persona varies. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:38am greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 8:03pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 8:03pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:42am greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:14pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:50am # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:42am:
1. I didn't start this thread. 2. You always mention those fellows first, not I. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:56am greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:50am:
Can't resist trolling, young sociopath, can you? # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:58pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:05am muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
And yet: greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 9:53pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:02pm
Anthropogenic Global Warming
Lets see. Humans burn fossil fuels which releases CO2 into the atmosphere. Humans have intensified their de-forestation activities which releases additional Carbon. We know from radio isotopic analysis of carbon that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the industrial period (since about 1890 actually) has been traced back to anthropogenic sources. Now CO2 in the earths atmosphere acts as a greenhouse gas. Even without temperature data, one can predict an increase in average global temperature as CO2 levels are increased. Just as Arrhennius did in the 1890s. To suggest that the basis of AGW is unsupported by evidence and theory is in my opinion a political stance that has no bearing on the science. Its amazing how many young children don't have any issues with comprehension when it comes to AGW and the effects it can cause. Yet there are still many who cling to the Boltisms and Moncton lies, for the most ridiculously immoral of motives. Remember CO2 is a greenhouse gas and its concentration in the earths atmosphere is increasing DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVTIES. FACT! The Earth is warming at a rate with which there is no natural mechanism(s) to explain it. FACT. CarbonIsotope1.gif (103 KB | 39
) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:23pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:05am:
I can read, and count. ;) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:25pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:02pm:
Who's suggesting that, exactly? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:49pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:23pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:50pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:25pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 3rd, 2013 at 9:53pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:53pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:50pm:
Thank you. You've proven that I'm not suggesting that. So, my question remains: who is suggesting that, exactly? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:48pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:53pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:53pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:48pm:
Not at all. Quite the opposite. I suggest you read it again. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:58pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:53pm:
so now you are suggesting that AGW IS supported by evidence? you seem to be jumping from one stance to another who are you? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:58pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:05am:
# wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 12:49pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:02pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:58pm:
# wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:58pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:04pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:58pm:
I have said, on many occasions, that there is an abundance of evidence out there used in support of the AGW theory. You obviously have not been reading the posts. My stance has not changed one bit: - AGW is indeed a scientific theory, based on sound scientific principles. - Moreover, there is a tonne of evidence out there that is used to support the aforementioned theory. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:07pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 2:53pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:11pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:07pm:
At least the Chimp understands basic English - you, not so much. "not enough" means there is some (in fact - quite a lot), but not a sufficient quantity. I have never said there is "no evidence". I have always said there is "not enough" credible, reliable evidence. Your failure to understand the difference is alarming, but not at all surprising. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:13pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:04pm:
There's enough evidence for the vast majority of the best qualified to report 95 to 100% confidence: muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
It's just not enough for you. So what are your credentials for this superior opinion? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:18pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:11pm:
Supported by would imply enough support. You have had a lot of experience in this trolling game, haven't you? # wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 4:58pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:18pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:13pm:
Absolutely not. I know the actual meaning of the relevant terms, whereas you seem to have a very limited understanding of some words. Your ignorance can in no way be interpreted as me "playing word games". I don't play games, I don't tell lies, and I prefer to deal in facts. I'm sorry if that upsets you, but I have no control over your emotions. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:20pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:04pm:
Human activities such as fossil fuel combustion and de-forestation have increased the level of CO2 in the earths atmosphere. CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas. The earth warms as a result. So Anthropogenic Global Warming is a fact of nature. You can present arguments and evidence as to HOW MUCH the earth is warming as a result, or what the consequences will be in the future to the earths climate, ice cover, sea levels etc, but AGW is undeniably a fact. You need to change your tact, or make your comments a little clearly. You seem to be in the school of deniers that is not even accepting the reality that the earth has warmed due to Human activity drivers. And to be one of them, you need to have an enormous amount of evidence, In fact basic theoretical science is against you. Maybe you can develop your own scientific theory - good luck Greggy! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:26pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:18pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:18pm:
muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:42pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:20pm:
A "potent greenhouse gas" LOL , I guess you are referring to its terrible effect on global warming hysterics like yourself because there is no other study that shows co2 is a "potent greenhouse gas", in fact its really benign, the only destructive effect rising co2 levels seems to have had so far is an increase in the amount of kooky climate nutjobs prancing around in the streets with "The End Is Nigh" sandwhich boards ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:45pm |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by viewpoint on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:46pm skippy. wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:53am:
And I thought you were referring to yourself.....ya know being a DOLT........ ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:51pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:42pm:
no source for that 'benign" statement? (apart from your inability to understand high school level science and preference to looking up crack pot fossil fuel funded web sites and listen to moronic liars such as Bolt and Moncton) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 6th, 2013 at 4:01pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:51pm:
No source for that potent greenhouse gas statement? ;D , look I understand your suffering, no one likes to see their god being critisized, in your case its the god of climate change but on other boards its allah or jesus or some other imaginary entity ;D Go and sacrifice a virgin, it will make you feel better ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:09pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 4:01pm:
right, good on ya innocent bystander... what are ridiculous way of debating in public |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:11pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:20pm:
This is where you lose all credibility. Sorry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:32pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 3:13pm:
1. One does not need scientific credentials in order to have an opinion on a scientific theory. 2. I've never said that my opinion is "superior". Quite the opposite: I have always maintained that the AGW theory may indeed be correct. Lies, assumptions, arrogance, and personal abuse: that's all we see from you, unfortunately. Is there any chance at all that you might change your modus operandi in the future? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:38pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:11pm:
Lol! I think before he loses credibility we better allow him to confirm that statement, it may be not what he was trying to say? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:41pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:38pm:
It was an incredibly naive, and ignorant thing to say. I expected a little better from him. If it came from #, I could understand it. From Chimp though, it seems a little odd. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:54pm
Its a fact that human activities such as fossil fuel combustion and deforestation are driving atmospheric CO2 levels up, and therefore resulting in a warmer planet. Thusly, AGW is an indisputable fact.
what details in the above sentence do you reject? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:58pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:38pm:
Have you seen his latest post? He's actually standing by his claim that AGW is a "fact". I must say, I never expected to see such a post in this forum. I'm speechless. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:02pm
silent on the challenge - why isnt anybody surprised by that?
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:07pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:38pm:
He seems to think that if you combine two "facts", and make a theory out of it, then that theory must also be a "fact" (ignoring, of course, his complete ignorance of scientific method). Two rights make another right, so to speak. Quite extraordinary. He's starting to make # look like a genius. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:18pm
Greggy panicking in public
Cant state why he rejects the AGW fact with his delusional paranoia and conspiracy theories |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:20pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:18pm:
You've called a scientific theory a "fact". You have no credibility in this forum. I'm sorry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:23pm
Humans have increased the CO2 in the earths atmosphere (indisputable fact supported by scientific evidence and theory from many disciplines)
A rise in CO2 in the earths atmosphere will enhance the earths greenhouse effect, resulting in a warmer planet. (indisputable fact supported by evidence and theory from many disciplines) I can only assume that Greggy doesn't understand what the words are in AGW. OR Good old Greggy rejects the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. (perhaps its both ladies and gentlemen - we may well be in the presence of a FM) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:25pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:23pm:
You've called a scientific theory (Anthropogenic Global Warming) a "fact". You have no credibility in this forum. I'm sorry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:27pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 5:32pm:
# wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:05am:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:28pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:27pm:
Yes, and yes. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:51pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:25pm:
no need to apologise. Just because you wish to avoid the truth by citing your neurotic semantics. remember mr greggy, the near spherical earth geometry is also a theory. it seems as though you don't wish to get past square 1, and enter the real debate where the grown ups discuss the nitty gritty of climate change. you prefer to hide behind the word theory as if a scientific theory is somehow at a stage of being un settled. care to dispute the theory of thermodynamics and its 4 laws? what about the theory of relatively or natural selection? just theories YOU mr greggy must present an alternative THEORY as to why the earth is warming. or do you believe the earth hasn't warmed over the past 60 years? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:59pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:28pm:
Good to see you can acknowledge your failings. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:03pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:59pm:
1. One does not need scientific credentials in order to have an opinion on a scientific theory. Your inability to understand this is alarming, but not surprising. 2. Ego, is not a dirty word. Don't you believe what you've seen or you've heard. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:05pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 6:51pm:
You've called a scientific theory (Anthropogenic Global Warming) a "fact". There is no getting past this. You have no credibility in this forum. I'm sorry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:18pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:03pm:
You've proven quite conclusively that you can't be believed. That you're evidently proud of the fact merely reinforces the evidence of your sociopathy. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:29pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:18pm:
Thank you Doctor. I'll expect your bill in the mail. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:31pm # wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:18pm:
Just out of curiousity ... example? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:44pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:05pm:
no need to apologise Mr Greggy I am satisfied with the evidence and rationale that underpins AGW - its a fact as far as I am concerned, just as I accept Evolution as a fact. We know how the theoretical revolutions occur and how paradigms shift etc Your position seems to be that by calling AGW a theory you can somehow reject all the evidence and hide behind your paranoia. A very common tactic often employed by the lunatic creationists and ID cults who dismiss biological evolution on the grounds that it is just a theory. Describe the theoretical aspects of AGW and what annoys you so much about its factual nature Mr Greggy We have lots of work to cover over the next few years Mr Greggy. And I am not even charging you |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:52pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:44pm:
You've called a scientific theory (Anthropogenic Global Warming) a "fact". There is no getting past this. You have no credibility in this forum. I'm sorry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:58pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:52pm:
Repeating yourself will not change the factual nature of AGW join reality - be honest with yourself (I wont hold my breath though) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:01pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:58pm:
You've called a scientific theory (Anthropogenic Global Warming) a "fact". There is just no getting past this. You have absolutely no credibility left in this forum (you started with little). I'm sorry. That's the way it is from now on. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:35pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:01pm:
Repeating yourself will not alter the factual nature of AGW. you reject it We will work on your illness together mr greggy I will assist you at no extra cost. I have helped others in this forum for no charge |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:39pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:35pm:
You have absolutely no credibility left in this forum (you started with little). You called a scientific theory (Anthropogenic Global Warming) a "fact". There is just no getting past that. I'm sorry. Even # has abandoned you now. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:56pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:39pm:
But you did this last time mr greggy don't you remember? Remember the good old days when Foolosophy was destroying you in public on a regular basis? Remember when you kept saying sorry? Then you panicked and went to moderators for assistance. Don't you remember mr greggy? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:20pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 8:56pm:
Now you've mistaken me for someone else. I have no idea who Foolosophy is. Is that one of your socks? Perhaps an early night would be in order tonight, Mr Chimp. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:39pm
Mr Greggy exposed and back pedaling
No longer repeating his apologetics You were saying something about credibility mr greggy Now you want me to leave. Don't you want to deal with the facts? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:41pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:39pm:
Absolutely. Who, exactly, is Foolosophy? Can you post some links to these alleged conversations I had with him? Thanks. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:56pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:41pm:
...interesting neurosis, you seem to have an affliction of avoiding facts |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:04pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 9:56pm:
Were the questions too hard? I'll give you one more chance. But believe me, this is your last chance. OK? Fair warning. So ... Who, exactly, is Foolosophy? Can you please post some links to these alleged conversations I had with him? Thank you. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:10pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:04pm:
are you going to say THANK YOU from now on rather than SORRY? At least agree on some basic scientific facts before we get stuck into the nitty gritty of Climate change, tipping points, sea level rise, ice melts etc Lets at least commence with the simplest of verifiable facts - that Global warming over the industrial period, especially the past 6 decades has been driven by human activities, |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:13pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:10pm:
Sure. So ... Who, exactly, is Foolosophy? Can you please post some links to these alleged conversations I had with him? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:15pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:13pm:
Don't you remember the good old days? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:16pm
At least agree on some basic scientific facts before we get stuck into the nitty gritty of Climate change, tipping points, sea level rise, ice melts etc
Lets at least commence with the simplest of verifiable facts - that Global warming over the industrial period, especially the past 6 decades has been driven by human activities, |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:16pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 10:15pm:
No. I'm pretty sure you've mistaken me for someone else. PM me if you like. We don't want to bore the rest of the forum. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:27pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:03pm:
Don't you risk substantiating Dunning & Kruger; that the incompetent can be so ignorant that they are incapable of recognising their own incompetence? greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:03pm:
Inflated ego is characteristic of sociopathy. You're consistent, I'll say that for you. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:37pm # wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:27pm:
As ignorant as Chimp_Logic, certainly. However, a few more posts from yourself and I may have to set a new benchmark. Time will tell. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:42pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:37pm:
oh deer, please don't take me down from your top rung To be ranked so highly by yourself in the ignorance stakes is an absolute honour Its a little bit like GW Bush ringing someone up and complimenting them on how intelligent and honest they were. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:50pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:42pm:
Don't worry. It's not likely to happen any time soon. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:52pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 6th, 2013 at 7:31pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:57pm # wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:27pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:37pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 2:05pm # wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 1:57pm:
"A high need for validation originates in childhood, when a child does not get enough attention or does not feel valued. The child then grows up seeking that attention as an adult. People with a high need for validation pay an enormous social price. For example, do you experience any of the following: => People tend to shy away and think you are self-centered. => People tend to feel uncomfortable around you without knowing exactly why. => You attract others who have the same need. => You tend to feel needy. "To confirm whether you do indeed have a high need for validation, see how many of the following statements describe you. Do you... => Feel sad when you are not the center of attention? => Present yourself in a way that calls attention to you immediately? => Make sure that you are the main topic of conversation? "Unfortunately, your own need for validation can never be adequately satisfied by anyone but you. To completely meet your need for validation, you must first validate yourself and then ask others to do the same." http://www.ivillage.com/forums/love-sex/relationship-problems/eas/affair-healing-library/overcoming-our-unhealthy-need-validation |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 7th, 2013 at 2:19pm
We need to stop bickering and focus on the one thing we can all agree on and that is the fact that science has been hijacked for political purposes by a bunch of sandwhich board wearing f#ckin numpties that think the end of the world is nigh
Chimp logic ... |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 7th, 2013 at 4:01pm
I go fishing for 4 days and this is what happens. ::)
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 4:32pm muso wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 4:01pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 4:34pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 2:05pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 5:39pm muso wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 4:01pm:
Catch anything? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 7th, 2013 at 6:12pm
Just whiting. I have to catch a big barramundi by the end of the month though.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 6:12pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:36am:
"IPCC 95% sure about AGW" Only 95%? Perhaps they should speak to Chimp_Logic: " ... Anthropogenic Global Warming is a fact of nature." " ... AGW is undeniably a fact." http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1380325015/235#235 |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 6:15pm muso wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 6:12pm:
Whiting. Nice. I used to catch sand whiting down on Ocean Beach in Denmark, WA. Sure, they're not that big but they sure do taste nice. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:26pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 6:12pm:
muso wrote on Oct 5th, 2013 at 6:46am:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:30pm # wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:26pm:
Yes, thanks to the Chimp I know that AGW is actually no longer a scientific theory. It is a "fact". An "undeniable fact", in fact. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:37pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:30pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:38pm # wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:37pm:
Nope. An "undeniable fact". Keep up, please. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:40pm
Just a reminder - A theory is a coherent set of propositions that explain a class of phenomena, that are supported by extensive factual evidence, and that may be used for prediction of future observations.
For example: Copernicus's theory of the heliocentric solar system. For a non scientist, it's a reasonable proposition to say that the sun is approximately at the gravitational centre of the solar system. That is as close to certain that it could be termed a fact. In the same way, AGW can be described as factual. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:43pm muso wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:40pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:47pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:43pm:
Do you see now greggery, how you keep validating Dunning & Kruger (the incompetent can be so ignorant that they're incapable of recognising their incompetence)? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:50pm muso wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:40pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:51pm
Would you say that the Sun is not in the gravitational centre of the Solar System? (I didn't say the centre of the Sun)
That's a theory with the same degree of certainty as AGW. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 7th, 2013 at 8:13pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:50pm:
Ignorance and inflated ego. Fatal combination (if amusing). |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:21pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:50pm:
gregg doesn't understand how scientific method produced the world we have today! ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:22pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 2:19pm:
which peer reviewed scientific literature has been politicised? List the articles You can read cant you? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:30pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:21pm:
Consensus created the world we have today. And that's a "fact" (just ask Chimp). Don't you know anything? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:33pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:30pm:
You're confusing consensus with fascism (again!) It seems as though your illness has worsened You're not going to start frothing at the mouth and repeatedly saying sorry again are you? I hope so! I am current writing a paper on neurotic online disorder syndrome |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:35pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:30pm:
gregg don't understand scientific method! technology is applied science gregg... wake up buddy- you're joining issues and trying to pretend you can go over our heads but you can't as you're a complete amatuer! ;) ;) Nice try but: more red wine should do the trick,... a time and a place for everything they say! :-* :-* |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:37pm |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:37pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:33pm:
Are you current write it in English? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:58pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 9:37pm:
Oh whats wrong Greggy, did you get offfendded? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 13th, 2013 at 3:04pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 7th, 2013 at 7:38pm:
At 95%+ certainty, I'd have said beyond reasonable doubt. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 13th, 2013 at 3:46pm
Usually it's okay to be wrong, to review your hypothesis and adjust your theory to match the facts. What I've seen is the opposite, adjusting and misrepresenting facts to suit a theory. When an economist says "I'm certain!" and the empirical evidence and the test of time finds them wanting, they lose credibility. Does this not happen in every field of science? Oh that's right it doesn't matter how many times they get it wrong, it isn't millions of lives they are playing with after all. Money grows on trees am I right? ;) Failed policies don't effect the working class am I right? ;)
Some of you have done a great job smoothing out the issues, to help bring understanding. But even so the facts and failures can't be ignored and explained away, not when it's this serious. I know it's the usual narrative against skeptics "if you're wrong we all die! our children die!", however this downplays the flip side, it also overstates the harm for supporting a different solution. It's not "skeptics" VS "alarmists", it's people trying to decide on the best solution for everyone. If we listened to the most vocal of scientists and took their word as gospel truth, we'd be living in a fascist technocracy. When it effects everyone, we each have a voice. When a scientists disagrees, even just one, they shouldn't be ignored.(BS consensus aside) What if that one person is right and is pulling their hair out because they can't stop the sheep following the most vocal leading them over a cliff? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:45pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 3:46pm:
In my experience, the majority is more often right (or at least closer to right) than any minority. What's your experience? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:54pm # wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 3:04pm:
1. The 95%+ figure was plucked out of the air. 2. What you'd have said is merely one opinion. 3. It's a theory. Not a bad one, but still just a theory. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm # wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:45pm:
In my experience there is no clear distinction. Whether it's gambling, economics or anything else probabilities aren't always the be all and end all. A lot of important events the single mind has overcome the block of the many. In other situations majority can be good to warn of potential ills. So what I'm really trying to say is: 1. Leaving the control of the lives of humanity to a vote is immoral. It's much more beneficial to persuade then to force. 2. Therefore the acts of many individuals outweigh the acts of the few representing the majority. 3. If it effects everyone, each has an equal voice to their own destiny. Whether they are knowledgeable or not, the best situation is to provide ample argument for both sides and allow people to use their own logic to determine conclusion. You get nothing good in the long run from force. The funny thing is whether you're an AGW skeptic or supporter, the middle ground is still observable climate change. The issue comes in the cause and the solution. In my opinion the cause is regardless, especially when you have solutions that would be efficient regardless of AGW or natural climate change. We need to start agreeing on failures and work on solutions, there are many proposed that can be supported regardless of cause. Whether they are for preparation or prevention. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 13th, 2013 at 10:24pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:54pm:
So based on this assessment you would recommend the international community implements NO mitigational actions against the effects of AGW? Remember, Special and General Relativity are also theories, but without their predictions and corrections, GPS for example, would produce errors in the order of kilometres rather than centimetres. Ramping down the fossil fuel industry and de-forestation sectors NOW, sounds like prudent and sensible courses of action for the world to take don't you think? The alternative worse case scenario is just not something we as a species should gamble with. And remember, the fossil fuel corporations made a joint statement (2003) recommending that the world takes urgent action to mitigate the climatic and other effects caused by AGW. (even if they do fund propaganda outlets and spin doctors who are there to confuse the public) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:33am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 3:46pm:
Hey Vuk I agree, this is what science is all about. Quote:
Again I agree and wonder why governments around the world are still listening to the IPCC's computer circulation models when they have been so wrong in their predictions. Quote:
Definitely there are scientists still scrutinising Newtons & Einstein's work yet we don't call for their heads or call them heretics and ask for their death. Quote:
The only thing that drives the AGW religion spear headed by the IPCC is that a tax on the air we breath be passed on all nations. It doesn't matter that their science is continually torn to shreds because its false and misleading. Quote:
The green movement is at the head of carbon pricing, these individuals have a very different view of the world than your average citizen. It is my opinion that if most Australians knew how the greens where formed and what they really stand for they would be extinct by the next election. http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2011/1/the-greens-agenda-in-their-own-words#_ednref71 Quote:
Again I agree, this bickering has also destroyed the scientific debate and placed it on the back burner. Quote:
Life would indeed be a drag........... :( Quote:
Gillard, Swan, Combet, Rudd, and now Shorten keep telling us the Australian public are right behind carbon pricing. Why have they never taken it to a vote.....????? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:36am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 10:24pm:
No. Absolutely not. In fact, I've lost count of the amount of times that I've said I have absolutely no problem with Governments taking precautionary action against the possible effects of AGW. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:42am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 10:24pm:
There is no empirical evidence that AGW is responsible for the last 50 odds years of warming, its only a hypothesis supported by computer circulation models (CCM). And with so many of the (CCM) predictions being way of the mark why should we embark on such a costly exercise. http://youtu.be/Zw5Lda06iK0 Quote:
Ramping down the fossil fuel industry on falsifying evidence is not sound policy. I do agree about de-forestation. Quote:
The AGW hypothesis is dead wrong, why should we commit to a lie that wants to create a new market on wall street for the moguls to tax us on the air we breath. Quote:
That's because these very same moguls that are financing global warming also own most parts of the fossil fuel industry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 14th, 2013 at 4:29pm Ajax wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:42am:
That is an incorrect statement. (no empirical evidence? lol) list the circulation models that predict a static or decreasing global temperature as atmospheric CO2 levels increase - can you find any? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:53pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 4:29pm:
Listen chimp even the IPCC have admitted that their models have over estimated AGW. What more is there to say.......?????? If your leading authority on global warming has admitted they where wrong. You have lost the battle......!!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:59pm Ajax wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:53pm:
which models and over what time period? post your peer reviewed articles demonstrate your delusions so laughter can ensure clown freak of Jacob |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:06pm
are you playing dumb chimp to cover up the nonsense of the IPCC....???
Or Aren't you man enough to stand up and say yeah ok they may have been off....??? Quote:
http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/the-ipcc-1990-far-predictions-were-wrong/ Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm Ajax wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:06pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports? I thought you said that the atmospheric CO2 level should be ramped up as quickly as possible because it plays no role in the observed warming trends measured over the past century or so? Don't you remember? You deny the basic high school level science that underpins AGW, on the basis of CO2 not being a greenhouse gas. Shouldn't you be doing something else? Like burning forests and investing in the fossil fuel industry to make short term profits? What are you doing in here? Who are you really? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 6:04am greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:54pm:
Yet another assertion that you've no hope of credibly substantiating. Still trolling, young onanist*. * greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by ImSpartacus2 on Oct 15th, 2013 at 6:06am
Hi Chimp,
I'm having some trouble copying on my tablet at the moment but can I refer you to my last post on the Anthropogenic global warming thread- Its about astroturfing and sockpuppets. Might explain a few things for you. Regards |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:44am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
By the 1990s, I'd concluded that climate science is so complex that I would never develop a credible comprehension of it. So I decided that my best option is to accept the opinion of the majority of the best qualified. Since then, the Merchants of Doubt have so muddied the waters that avoiding the influences of our own world views is virtually impossible. We're pretty much doomed to reinforce what we already believe, rather than coming to conclusions based on genuine evidence. Most of us base our decisions on what people we trust tell us. These days we have too many skilled liars, well-paid by vested interests, peddling distortions. Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
If global warming isn't anthropogenic, then what can humanity do? Without what you call "force", will vested interests agree on the failures? Will they permit the solutions? What are vested interests likely to do, except exploit the situation for short-term gain? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:47am greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:36am:
So what are you whining about? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, so what does that say about their credibility....??? They are the front runners on carbon pricing, governments around the world are listening to their CO2 mitigation policies yet their science has failed to prove anything of what they claim. Quote:
I don't think CO2 controls temperature here on Earth it never has in the past when we had 20 times the amount of CO2 we have today in our atmosphere, so why should it now all of a sudden. Just because the elite moguls of this world have decided that cheap energy will no longer be available at the finger tips of the masses.......????? The IPCC is a political body controlled by the United Nations, now do you know who controls the United Nations...??? Quote:
Why are you alarmists always twisting our words, that's rubbish and you know it. I do believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and may have some affect on the current warming of the Earth. What I don't believe is that man's emissions of CO2 are solely responsible for all the warming we have had in the last 50 to 60 years. The Earth is always warming and cooling regardless of what the CO2 is doing. In our history there have been times when the Earth cooled and CO2 rose, there have been times when the temperature rose and CO2 declined. Quote:
WTF are you talking about, been on the turps have we..??? Quote:
I'm debating the false hypothesis that is anthropogenic global warming. I'm Ajax. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Dunning–Kruger effect Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:10am # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am:
And who made you god to recognise the experts from the laymen. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:28am Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Do you actually read your own posts? AGW is not about CO2 CONTROLLING the temperature of the Earth. Its about how much it will warm the earth as CO2 releases are increased over time. Its about how this warming will affect the climate, sea levels, reefs, ice cover etc You believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas? Is this a religious exercise for your? You believe that CO2 MAY have some affect? You believe that do you? Based upon what? Can you quantify what this effect is, and why you use the word MAY? Are you saying that rising CO2 MAY not influence the earths systems? This is your problem You are paranoid and BELIEVE in conspiracies, and have some aversion to people being taxed (even though you personally benefit from taxes like everyone else) Listen Ajax, Pack your bags, run off to some desolate island or to the Antarctic, set up your camp there and live the way you want to WITHOU paying taxes and WITHOUT scientific research informing you about what is happening. good luck (final post - your level clown ignorance stench has breached the 0.785 mark) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:38am Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:10am:
Does one need to be a god? God, expert or layman; which do you claim to be? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:46am # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:47am:
Arrogant alarmists who ignore scientific principles and claim that AGW is "an undeniable fact of nature". Arrogant alarmists who claim that anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory must be against taking precautionary action. Arrogant alarmists who assume that anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory must be a Liberal supporter. Arrogant alarmists who assume that anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory is endangering our kids, and our kids' kids lives. Stupid people, basically. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:47am
#
Probability means nothing when you fail over and over. The IPCC is the boy that cried wolf for attention and funding. But people aren't listening anymore UNTIL they prove themselves for once. I love the way you say "best qualified", in the face of Donna Laframboise pointing out the mere graduates in the IPCC and the perversion of the scientific and peer review method they employ.(evidenced by the climategate emails and the ignorance of the IPCC to author recommendations hence people leaving in disgust) Yet when scientists disagree like the NIPCC or anyone else ("best qualified"), you discard them and attack the scientists with ad hominem instead of beating them with evidence and logic through debate. (Ad hominem = cheap lawyer tactics) As far as skeptics are concerned the IPCC is not the best qualified, nor do they have the best credibility due their data manipulation (see Burt Rutan data analysis) and continual failure. As to your last questions(s) about what can humanity do or aren't we forced to make a choice, did you miss the memo when it was proven (even by poor poor monckton through the research of others) that it is far more economically feasible to adapt to changes rather than try and prevent the inevitable with a tax on air. The IPCC also puts forward many solutions, but do you see many actually happening besides taxes and inefficient alternative energy subsidies? Any opinions on why people are leaving the IPCC in disgust? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:51am # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 6:04am:
That's 100% correct. I'm not adverse to onanism. Are you? I'm starting to think that you have absolutely no idea what that word means. Considering your lack of knowledge in other areas, this would come as no surprise. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:56am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:47am:
As for adaptation, it depends on where global warming stops. Quote:
Good luck with that. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:57am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:28am:
chimp your not towing the consensus line dude, are you contradicting what your masters have cast in stone..??? Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:57am # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:38am:
Your the one playing god, I'm just a layman. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:00am greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:51am:
Clearly, English is not your first language. o·nan·ism Quote:
It's a worry that you habitually leave only one hand free for the keyboard. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:02am Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:57am:
How so? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:08am # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:00am:
"habitually" ? Where did you get that from? If one is "not adverse to onanism", it doesn't mean they "habitually" masturbate. You really should take a course in English old boy. So, are you telling us that you don't masturbate? Really? No surprise there I suppose: you lie about everything else, so there's no reason to expect the truth from you regarding onanism. Does your religion forbid you from doing it (not AGW, your other religion)? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:22am # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:56am:
Glad to know you like ignoring anything that doesn't suit your pretty little picture :) Still supporting the boy who cried wolf? I'm sorry I can't help you there, especially when you shy away from criticism of your precious IPCC. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 3:06pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:08am:
From your behaviour. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 3:09pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:22am:
I work with probability and credibility. Your sources simply don't make the grade. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:08pm # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 3:09pm:
What about empirical evidence and facts do you deal in those? How many times do they have to fail before you will call them "not credible". Oh that's right anyone who doesn't agree scientist, data analyst or common sense reporter all have no credibility. This just sounds like denial, anything you don't like you deny. Even when people leave the IPCC in disgust and write about it, the moment they leave they lose credibility? :D ;D I think my job here is done! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:12pm # wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 3:06pm:
Really? Have you been peeking through my window? You're a bit of a worry. What about the other questions? Too difficult? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 15th, 2013 at 5:04pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:08pm:
Most scientists who leave the IPCC disillusioned feel that the IPCC reports are too conservative in their recommended actions to tackle climate change. Too many political inputs have made their conclusions very conservative and far too often use politically mundane terminology so as to reduce public panic or alarm I suggest that you ignore the IPCC reports or merely use then as a first stepping stone. The peer reviewed scientific literature is far more informative but takes a long to time properly sieve through. If you are genuinely interested in this important global issue that is threatening human civilisation you would put in the energy to educate yourself. Obviously this is far too much work for you to do, so carry on Reading Mr Bolts crap Murdoch paid editorials and spin garbage. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 15th, 2013 at 5:45pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 5:04pm:
Firstly I have seen a single article about them being conservative. Where do you get this idea of people leaving due to conservatism? Even being conservative they overshoot though so that is pretty alarming. There are a great many people that have left and written about the IPCC, I've posted it many times yet haven't really come across this claim. Though I agree with you and I took the challenge. I came here armed with dozens of articles and graphs ready to learn and shed light and when no one put up a debate against it all I was hit with "Go read the reports and come back with some peer review literature". Well this made me pretty irritated as all the articles and graphs (ie actual data) was just brushed aside without debate. Though I accepted the challenge, read a few sections of the IPCC fourth report, about 1/3 of the fifth report and half of the latest few NIPCC reports, on top of that I've been going through all the peer reviewed abstracts I can get my hands on and have had quite enough. The debates here aren't about peer review literature or logic or evidence, the majority of the debate here is semantics , credibility ad hominem attacks and graph manipulation. So I've decided to hang back quite a lot now, ask a few questions here and there, thankfully you've got people like Muso that can help bring an objective view to the subject. Oh and please don't say I've been throwing in other peoples propaganda, my last 30 posts or so have been purely from the IPCC, NIPCC, peer review abstracts and the opinions of professionals on either side. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 15th, 2013 at 7:29pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:08pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:08pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:08pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:08pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Rider on Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:55pm
What they really meant to say...
Dr. Roy Spencer: Maybe That IPCC 95% Certainty Was Correct After All — ‘About 95% (actually, 96.7%) of the climate models warm faster than the observations… what they meant to say was that they are 95% sure their climate models are warming too much’ Modelled effects of co2 slandering = idiocy in 95% of cases. Fools. How many billions have been spent for NO benefit. Oh, and they can't even predict the weather for next week - it would be funny if it wasn't such a hideously expensive con job. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:05pm
#
This word "substantiate" seems like a brand new scapegoat to avoid debate. That's okay I won't bother. It seems you won't be happy unless someone writes their own totally sourced novel and puts it in for peer review just to prove a point. I don't know how "substantiated" and "credible" you can get with people leaving the IPCC. They leave the IPCC and do interviews and the answers and opinions are posted in blogs. You can't get more than that, the only thing further I've seen was that twitter post from the guy himself about the 97% survey or youtube/news videos of the people speaking themselves. All the graphs have a source, most of them come from the IPCC and the "peer reviewed" papers they use, same with the IPCC and same with any graph bloggers use, they use data collected from either papers or straight up data recordings. Lastly are you saying we have to have oceanographer PHDs to show a graph about ocean temperature cooling with data collected by an oceanographer.....? What about Ice Core data, do we have to go collect it ourselves? Am I not credible and qualified to read lines on a graph? I think you miss the point of what a discussion and what a debate is. It's not about who has the most certificates. Usually people start with what would be accepted examples and evidence. (ie debate guidelines) In this case all we can use is opinions and papers by scientists, data collected by scientists, blogs including interviews with scientists and good old fashion logic. If you want no part of it that's fine I'll stick to engaging people that have a thirst for logical discussion and rational debate. You won't find what you're looking for here that's for sure, but good luck. ;) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Rider on Oct 16th, 2013 at 6:22am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:05pm:
Of course it is, its #'s way to create a circular argument of bullsh1t. A common strategy of obfuscation deliberately employed to disempower any one who isn't on the global warming, cooling, changing, weirding, catastrophic, extreme events GRAVY TRAIN. They are all dependant on the gravy train for their salaries and grants, so of course they are gonna go down fighting to the very last dollar - that is of course our tax dollar...they never spend any of their own. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 16th, 2013 at 11:13am Rider wrote on Oct 16th, 2013 at 6:22am:
"We have to do something!" and by "we" they mean the government has to force everyone to do something with the threat of violence, whilst stealing taxes and spending them on what a small group of politicized scientists say they should be spent on. Sounds like Technocratic Fascism , but people don't care as long as it's "for the earth!" or "for the poor!". |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 16th, 2013 at 8:44pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:05pm:
Debate is about fact. Facts can be substantiated. You don't need qualifications, but you do need to be able to show where your comments come from. It's a bit like statistics. There are two kinds: - those you look up and; - those you make up. From where I sit, it seems your "facts" are the kind you make up. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 16th, 2013 at 8:49pm
The AGW denialist Church avoids publishing its research articles in peer reviewed scientific journals
They prefer the mass media and internet. A place where they can lie and distort with impunity Extremely easy to expose though - like shooting fish in a barrel ladies and gentlemen Its quite humorous watching them self destruct with their own lies and convoluted pseudo arguments |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 16th, 2013 at 9:12pm # wrote on Oct 16th, 2013 at 8:44pm:
Most would say it's about logic and evidence but okay. Quote:
Graphs showing observed recorded data sourced from papers/research aren't fact enough for you? Do you think we just make up graphs to lie to you? Most of them are sourced from the IPCC and peer reviewed papers themselves, others are graphs depicting the data in these papers. What more do you want? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 17th, 2013 at 8:19am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 16th, 2013 at 8:49pm:
Read the climatgate emails and learn how Michael Mann & Co. tried so desperately hard to knock back and discredit sceptic peer reviewed literature. Seems like they were actually frightened of these documents and couldn't bare any criticism of their own documents...??? Now is that science...............?????? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 17th, 2013 at 12:43pm
generally, fossil fuel combustion can be represented as
C* + 2O2 -> CO2 + 2H2O + ENERGY (+*) Now lets look at some basic scientific FACTS that almost every person accepts. 1. CO2 is a by product of fossil fuel combustion 2. Isotopic analysis has verified that the bulk of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the past century or so is due to human activities such as fossil fuel combustion (as well as de-forestation etc) 3. CO2 is a greenhouse or thermal retentive component in the earths atmosphere. For AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) to be a false assertion or observation, one or more of the above FACTS needs to be refuted or rendered incorrect. You can argue as to how much the earth will warm, OR what effects this warming will have on geological and biological systems on the earth which includes the climate in general, BUT to deny the AGW fact is more than a delusional stance to take - its utterly indefensible. So if anyone in here can show how one or more of the FACTS listed above are false or non factual statements, I am all ears. If you cant then, return to your crack pot denialist religious temples and pray to your spin priests. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 17th, 2013 at 2:59pm
Lol no one is saying that c02 doesn't trap heat and no one is saying that producing c02 ourselves isn't c02 or that it doesn't trap heat.
The issue is like you say how much does it trap, what would be the effects of increasing c02 and most importantly how does the climate react/adapt to these changes. As we have seen the impact of c02 has been vastly overstated, this began with Al-Gore preaching how snow would be a thing of the past and there'd be widespread catastrophic weather events and we'd all die with runaway warming. The climate sinks were underestimated and now used as an excuse, the knowledge is still insufficient to determine how each driver effects the other drivers. The impact of c02 increases alongside solar cycles is still in debate. So I guess I sort of understand now why you are calling AGW a fact. You are confusing man made warming with man made greenhouse effects. The greenhouse effect does have some scientists trying to disprove it and it's entertaining to listen to. However the AGW theory is all about how our increase of c02 is the main driver that is destroying the earth. That my friend is not fact. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 17th, 2013 at 4:45pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 2:59pm:
You still don't understand the point I am making. AGW implicitly states that HUMAN activities such as de-forestation and fossil fuel burning increases the average global temperature of the earth. read my post again if you wish, I purposefully delineate between the simple fact that human activities are warming the planet (undeniable scientific FACT), and its effects long term and also HOW much that warming will be going forward. The reality is that Anthropogenic Global Warming has been verified as a basic scientific fact since about the end of the 1990s when the last known natural radiation forcing cycle (solar irradiance cycle ~ 12 year period) was finally ruled out as a possible major thermal driver. In fact this natural candidate can be dismissed even prior to the year 1980 purely based on the large observed thermal retention "rates". It just became non controversial post 1980 If you recall, many AGW denialists would often use this graph to deceive people in thinking that the sun's varying irradiance was deriving the warming trends measured. They always showed data prior to 1980. Funny that, isn't it. Very good trick for the public, but doesn't seem to filter through the peer reviewed scientific publication process Ah yes the good old days, when the denialist tricksters would cut this graph at about the year 1980. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 17th, 2013 at 4:50pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 4:45pm:
Nope, it's not an undeniable scientific fact. Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 4:45pm:
Nope, that is not the reality. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:10pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 4:50pm:
Well I would agree with you on these points If I attended your church group meetings regularly I prefer to read scientific articles on the matter from numerous sources as well as consult the opinions of non religious experts |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:15pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:10pm:
... if you understood: a) what a scientific theory is, and b) that AGW is, in fact, a scientific theory. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:29pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
you are confusing a simple validated scientific fact with rhetoric A = anthropogenic G = Global W = Warming very simple isn't it. Perhaps you need to outline YOUR theory that seems to say that it is IMPOSSIBLE for human activities to increase the average global temperature Or are you calling your theory a fact? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:25pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 4:12pm:
No need. Your behaviour on this board is more than enough to establish that you're a compulsive wanker. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:28pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:29pm:
Chimp, the IPCC said 95 to 100% certain. To most of us, that would be beyond reasonable doubt. Clearly, nothing is beyond unreasonable doubt. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:31pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 4:50pm:
Compulsive troll, aren't you young wanker*? * greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:36pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 5:29pm:
Incorrect. You, however, don't know the difference between a theory and a fact. It's no wonder you're so confused when it comes to science. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:41pm
vuk11 is 95% certain that CO2 can only act as a greenhouse gas if under pure vacuum conditions.
lol |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:44pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:36pm:
You politicise the words theory and fact for your own personal reasons a person who does that cannot practice or understand the scientific method. they are political priests |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 18th, 2013 at 2:05pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:41pm:
You misunderstand like I knew you would. Who's the shill in this situation? You know what I meant it was said in the very next sentence fool. Vacuum was an analogy for a situation without external factors, that is what most people use vacuum for as an analogy, unless they are referring to a physical vacuum in space. Which I was NOT. C02 increases temperature in a controlled environment, however it is CLEAR that it doesn't raise the temperature if multiple external factors work against it such as reduced solar activity. Please don't misquote me it's one of my pet hates for people that manipulate. Why do you think I'm so against the IPCC? Because they misquote authors and manipulate data. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 18th, 2013 at 2:09pm
Oh you absolute troll you can't even quote right!
You: "Only in a vacuum can CO2 act as a greenhouse gas" vuk11 Me: Vuk11 wrote on Oct 17th, 2013 at 6:39pm:
Now After this quote YOU ASKED ME: Quote:
Now before I could even answer that so we were on the same page you go off on this tangent misquoting me. Sly man absolutely sly. I bet your dancing "haha vuk said vacuum, I asked him to define what he meant but I didn't wait for his reply haha I'm going to misquote him ahah" You sir have shown your true colours, you are sly. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 18th, 2013 at 2:52pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 1:44pm:
No, but I'd love to hear what you think my 'personal reasons' are. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 18th, 2013 at 4:09pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 2:52pm:
you work for the fossil fuel industry? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 18th, 2013 at 4:55pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 4:09pm:
No. I work for no-for-profit organisations. And, I support the use of renewable and alternative energy sources. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 18th, 2013 at 6:03pm greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 4:55pm:
non for profit organisations, at least in the USA, can be a very misleading label. There are many organisations in the USA that claim this category but only because they don't deliver dividends to shareholders. Their primary goal is still profit and they deploy the corporate model to achieve this. Their profits are distributed internally. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 18th, 2013 at 8:38pm
So typical of all alarmists...chimp.....???
You cannot defend the IPCC's computers pseudo science. So you twist everyone's words and misrepresent their statements to go of track about the actual science. Really pathetic imo..............!!!!!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 18th, 2013 at 8:57pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 4:09pm:
No, I do not work for the fossil fuel industry. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 18th, 2013 at 8:59pm
As a point of clarification, where do you guys stand on the 15/16/17 year temperature stall? Are you with the: "The missing temperature is in the ocean" crowd
or: "There is no stall!". Like are we working off the same data here or what? Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 18th, 2013 at 9:12pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 8:59pm:
Hey Vuk Muso and I were at it about this missing heat has gone into the oceans. Muso was argueing that it had gone into the deep ocean (3000 metres) because that's what the IPCC had said to defend the 15 years of no temperature rise. So I argued that if the heat had gone into the deep oceans (3000 metres) the argo system consisting of 3000 buoys all over the world would have detected it. The buoys dive down to 2000 metres and every two weeks rise to the surface and transmit the data. It takes them two weeks to dive and surface from 2000 metres, so they go pretty slow. In the AR5 paper the IPCC are now saying the most of the heat went into the top layers of the oceans (700 metres). Poor muso and chimp they have been left with their willies in the wind. That's what happens when they try to defend a science that is based on computer circulation models. No body needs to be a scienctist these days just have a look at the weather on your television every night to see where the highs and lows come from and you might say to your self its good that they get the next few days right and that's maybe. And they want to make us spend trillions on the air we breath because their computer models are saying this or that. For bugger sake you alarmists wake up...........!!!!! How can you put your faith in computer circulation models. BTW dude totally agree the earth's atmosphere is not a test tube. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 18th, 2013 at 9:17pm
If it's the temperature went into the ocean then I can sort of understand that. The IPCC fifth report showed a minuscule temperature rise in what, the top 70m or so. Beyond that it's non-existent. I always got sh*tty when both Loehle and Willis came up with cooling oceans, so they removed some ARGO data that was "too cool". Took Loehle 6 years to come up with that excuse.
Didn't you guys chat about the satellites and how they could measure really small rises in sea level? I haven't had a chance to check that thread out yet, what was your/Muso's conclusion? Cheers for the reply. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 20th, 2013 at 10:52am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 18th, 2013 at 9:17pm:
I suppose we agreed not to disagree on that one...!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 12:28pm Ajax wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 10:52am:
cracks are appearing within your congregation of temple worshipers Mr Ajax.... why would you AGREE to NOT disagree with one of your fellow priests in public? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 20th, 2013 at 12:42pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 12:28pm:
WTF are you talking about.....been on the turps chimp...???? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 1:00pm Ajax wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 12:42pm:
now, now dark night lets not get too angry in public we wouldn't want the priests in your crack pot religion to demand a confession from you now would we? have you found any models yet that suit your religious beliefs? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Lucas The Innkeeper on Oct 20th, 2013 at 1:05pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:36am:
Oh that's PURE GOLD ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 1:08pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 12:28pm:
He was talking to Muso about satellites measuring sea level rises, I haven't looked into it yet. I was curious of his and Muso's opinion. To my knowledge Muso isn't a priest nor is he against AGW, however I will now refer to him as the priest :) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 1:24pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 1:08pm:
nothing wrong with priests, if they are attracted to the truth |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:17pm
,,,the past decade was the warmest on record, but the deniers are dancing in the street declaring a cooling period has just taken place
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:27pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:17pm:
Lol there's a long term downward trend, picking an arbitrary set of data and going "muh hottest on record". Not to mention besides the below graph the current temperature is cold compared to the last I don't know millions of years :) Muh_hottest_on_record.png (134 KB | 43
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:31pm
Don't forget we are coming out of a mini ice age.
All is to be expected, the fact that it is far less than expected goes to show it's not as catastrophic as they think seems quite natural so far. Look below . Akasofu_Prediction_002.png (187 KB | 29
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:33pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:27pm:
so your detailed graph shows temperature variation for an astonishing period of January to May in 2010? Well done - amazing insights over this quarter and the base line is DECEMBER the previous year - lol - a hot summer month. what did you expect your little graph trend to do, in January to May if compared to December? youre a clown |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:38pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 2:33pm:
I knew you would say that sorry I'm trying to copy the explanation. Quote:
It's an example of data manipulation for the claim of "this is the hottest on record muh warming blah blah". |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 4:50pm
vuk11 has been exposed as a pseudo agitator to provide a premise for discussion
very funny wasting everybodys time with re hashed spin data that was debunked in the past several times bye |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by namnugenot on Oct 20th, 2013 at 4:58pm
The IPCC are 100% sure they want to keep their snouts in the trough. And that they want it to remain full.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:05pm
pseudo agitator that is ridiculous ;D
There is no a single refutation that exists to Burt Rutan's data analysis of the IPCC and Mr Gore's manipulation. Even Skepticalscience the biggest AGW supporter community haven't done it. Above I was merely adding context to the graph I posted. Many claims of "hottest on record" are easily debunked with historical data when put in context. The graph I posted was to one claim of 2010 being the hottest may on record. This happens quite a lot and sadly we can't just keep creating graphs for every single attempt by AGW proponents to say "this was the hottest *insert arbitrary time scale here* on record". |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:08pm
To all that are curious:
http://rps3.com/Files/AGW/EngrCritique.AGW-Science.v4.3.pdf Just look at the damn data. It's inescapable. The tree ring fraud, the graph manipulation, the arbitrary trend lines, the heat vents of air conditioners next to temperature recording devices, the devices next to waste treatment plants, the lies of the IPCC and Mr Gore. It's all there exposed by a guy who's spent his professional life doing data analysis for his Aero engineering, for which he is considered a "legend". (Since so many here are concerned about "credentials") |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:12pm
Here he points out some blatant cherry picking.
From slide 28 onward it starts to get really juicy :) Cherry_picking.jpg (173 KB | 35
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:15pm
vuk11 muso
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:23pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:15pm:
Come again? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:31pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:23pm:
why do you post the same already debunked garbage? are you trying to keep this thread alive forever? you do realise that the AGW fact has already been settled in the scientific community? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 21st, 2013 at 10:16am
Hey chimp where is the unequivocal warming due to the rise in manmade CO2.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 11:52am
same crap from Ajax - the paranoid conspiracy tax alarmist
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 21st, 2013 at 12:06pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 11:52am:
hey chimp no matter how much you have buried yourself in denial....!!!! Fact is CO2 is increasing and temperatures are flat lining. You have to come to grips with reality dude......!!! The Erath's atmosphere is not a test tube....!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 12:17pm Ajax wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 12:06pm:
still pedalling your tax globalist paranoia in here I see. found any cooling or static temperature models yet? funny how ALL models predict global warming as CO2 levels rise. good luck, I will give you until the end of 2019 to respond good luck *cricket* |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:06pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 12:17pm:
what are you smoking chimp seriously mate...........!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:11pm Ajax wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:06pm:
lol |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:23pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:11pm:
Your not seeing pink elephants are you...??? Better call an ambulance..........!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:39pm Ajax wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 1:23pm:
no cooling or static models yet? end of 2019 *crickets* |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Innocent bystander on Oct 21st, 2013 at 4:14pm Ajax wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 12:06pm:
Yep, just as all the models predicted |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 4:33pm Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 4:14pm:
Is Ajax saying that the thermal retention rates of the entire planet have flat lined over the past decade? lol |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 21st, 2013 at 4:55pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20th, 2013 at 5:31pm:
There is no proof of your assertion. Not just that but two things to add: 1. The observable data contradicts the theory 2. If it was a settled science there would be one conclusive climate model,as there are hundreds and as 99% of them fail, as the NIPCC exists and people are speaking out it is clear that it is NOT settled. Science doesn't settle it evolves. Unless you are a creationist? Like Dana at "skepticalscience" lol Oh wait I forgot he's an oil shill too? ;) http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/22/dana-nuccitellis-vested-interest-oil-and-gas/ (Surely we can allow my first ad hominem? Or is that only allowed by AGW supporters?) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:49pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 4:55pm:
youre a sort of creationist when it comes the basic undeniable scientific FACT commonly known as AGW |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:51pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:49pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:56pm
remember the good old days when the AGW denialist church congregation was afraid to show data past the 1980s?
Solar_vs_Temp_basic.gif (9 KB | 45
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 5:02pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:56pm:
The sun is going in to a quite period for the next few decades. The temperature will now follow suit, proving once and for all manmade CO2 doesn't control temperature on Earth. Stay tuned...................................!!!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 7:32pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:56pm:
Remember when the Alarmist church were (still are) too afraid to show data that pre dates 1880? "Muh Hockey stick". (Pssst I can Ad Hominem and throw up fallacies too ;) ) hockey_stick_fail_001.jpg (183 KB | 45
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 7:40pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 21st, 2013 at 5:56pm:
Oh look what happens when you pick an arbitrary time section and apply an arbitrary trend line :) Temperature and solar activity on a downward trend and the IPCC are off to the moon. (Bias is as bias does) Solar_Trend.jpg (74 KB | 42
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 7:57pm
Hey vuk11 you smelly freak
Why do you believe that rising CO2 levels will cool the planet? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:03pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 7:57pm:
I don't. I believe a declining solar trend and carbon sinks will reduce the impact and potentially reverse it though. I believe that the power of c02 is nothing compared to a combination of every other climate driver including solar activity and carbon sinks. Is that not reasonable? Or is c02 the be all and end all for you regardless of every other factor involved? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:17pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:03pm:
declining solar trend? describe the underlying mechanism and physics that is driving this DECLINIGN SOLAR TREND of yours What time scale does it operate over? (you must think everybody is incapable of exposing yoru childish lies and garbage online - are you embarrassed yet?) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:25pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:17pm:
You seem to be so well versed and have excellent knowledge of solar cycles why won't you tell us? Do you think solar activity is black and white to? That it just sits in neat little cycles like in your lab experiments? Where am I lying? Are you saying that a decline in solar activity in combination with carbon sinks will heat up the earth? (See I can straw man too ;D) But seriously do you deny that the above would reduce the impact of c02? Why don't you answer questions? Why do you just throw around straw men all the time? Careful Chimp with all the straw men around we might have another c02 caused bush fire....lit by children! :D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:35pm Ajax wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 5:02pm:
WOW big predictions from the man who cant find any models to support his lunatic religion, and who dismisses every model as garbage Now Mr Nostradamus is predicting a quiet period for the sun Don't tell me that you have been attributing the recent warming trend to a noisey period of the suns life? perhaps you should examine the solar irradiance variation data for the Sun - its well documented Mr Ajax is re-writing Physics online - in ONE swoop he will win the next Nobel prize |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 7:24am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:35pm:
Not me chimp, but some very prominent scientists all around the world. Some of many, (Baliunas & Jastrow 1990) (Foukal & Lean 1990) (Friis-Christensen & Lassen 1991) (Lockwood et al 1992) (Scuderi 1993) (Charvatova & Strestik 1995) (Balinius & Soon 1996-1998) (Soon et al 1996) (Hoyt & Schatten 1997) (Nicola Scaffeta & Bruce J West 2008) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:34am Ajax wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 7:24am:
where are the predictions for global cooling as CO2 levels increase? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:40am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 7:40pm:
Too short a period, Vuk. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:50am muso wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:40am:
I was surprised to learn that you masquerade in these threads as an AGW denier posting the usual debunked fossil fuel spin, just to ferment a fake debate. Why would you do that? natural spontaneous debates are far more effective and honest Even if it means a long break from debating cheers |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 12:42pm muso wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:40am:
IMO all time periods are arbitrary and only useful in proving a specific point. Either a claim of something over a historic period (long time frame) or a claim of say for example a 15 year stall in temperature which would require 15+ year time frame. The point of that graph was that arbitrary trend lines chosen in arbitrary times frames are misleading. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 12:51pm
the fraudulent fakery continues
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 24th, 2013 at 8:59pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:03pm:
==>>that's called "noise" buddy!! 8-) 8-) ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 24th, 2013 at 9:02pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 12:42pm:
vuk11 has discovered the uncertainty principle: lets all smoke crack and bore our friends to death for another weekend/year/ decade of their life!! Seriously, brother, this is why kids kill their managerial coin counting red wine infected parents!! (yes, bored up em self parents smoke crack too ::) ::) ) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 26th, 2013 at 4:42pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 23rd, 2013 at 11:34am:
Just look at what's happening to our temperature right now. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 26th, 2013 at 7:01pm Ajax wrote on Oct 26th, 2013 at 4:42pm:
Why does the data set in your lovely graph commence in the year 1998? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by it_is_the_light on Oct 26th, 2013 at 7:57pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1Q01NKUo90
Climate Profiteers Have "Egg on Their Face" the simple fact it is not hu man but corporations that simply pay to pollute exxon BP tepco at fukushima all is being revealed namaste ॐ |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 26th, 2013 at 8:40pm it_is_the_light wrote on Oct 26th, 2013 at 7:57pm:
corporations are a vehicle for fascism and enslavement There are humans behind it all freaks that shun the light like the fungi of Hades |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 27th, 2013 at 11:58am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 26th, 2013 at 8:40pm:
The elite moguls of this world are trying to control the world we live in through many vechiles, the AGW religion being one of them....??? Quote:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm
Ajax,
why does your little linear regression graph, commence with data in the year 1998? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 29th, 2013 at 8:38am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm:
It just shows how incompetent the IPCC computer circulation models are. They predicted a 0.2 degree Celsius rise ever decade. And as can be seen we have only had 0.05 degree Celsius rise over the last 15 years. Now is the IPCC's computer circulation models JUNK or NOT....?????? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:14pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 27th, 2013 at 12:35pm:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:29pm
I can't stand that gif #, it's such an arbitrary assumption and misleading too.
There is a reason people say that 15/16/17 years whatever of stalled temperature is significant, because it contradicts the predictions. Not because "oh let's cut up every small time section and put in arbitrary downward trend lines", no it's merely pointing out a contradiction. I'll post two graphs that are more in line what how a skeptic would view it, not all but I'm going to assume most. The below graph is what happens when you project information clearly and since it's over a slightly longer time period than your above graph, you'll notice the trend line isn't some crazy 45degree angle, rather it represents the very small rise of about 0.25 degree average over 28 or so years. Where it becomes more like 0.09 degree rise every decade. What has been the current predicted rise in temperature in comparison to this observed? 28_year_hemisphere_data_002.png (65 KB | 40
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:33pm
Whether you agree with the below or not it is a great articulation of how AGW supporters view the future in comparison to how a skeptic might.
Where as the IPCC predicts a rise, what's important is their predictions are just so vastly different then how the temperature has reacted before in it's oscillation. Whether it rises is another question, but what's alarming is how their prediction never dips, instead they have error bands to include so many possibilities so if it does dip, they're right, if it doesn't dip they're right! They'll only be wrong if it goes below the minimum error bands which I'll post after this. Now look at the skeptic where they can say "okay it seems to be on an upward trend but there's no reason to suggest it won't continue to oscillate as it increases and at a much less accelerated rate". Akasofu_Prediction_005.png (187 KB | 43
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:39pm
The below graph is so recent it's in the fifth report, or at least the draft.
The left is the original, however I removed the arbitrary grey bands that literally represent nothing, funny how they include a random grey band to try and hide the fact that their predictions are failing again. Why was the grey band added? Any explanation? Anyway the right section is skeptics added trend lines for the predictions, the observed and a comparison encircled in 2012 to show the disparity. Either way it should see clear enough to most. IPCC_Fifth_Temperature_anomoly_graph_4.jpg (124 KB | 38
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:47pm Ajax wrote on Oct 29th, 2013 at 8:38am:
you seem to like the year 1998 very old tree that one aren't you embarrassed? Do you think people in here cant remember where you get your garbage from? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 30th, 2013 at 8:38am Vuk11 wrote on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:39pm:
The grey bands are error bands. It's pointless to remove them. They represent 95% confidence limits. In predicting future temperatures, we don't have all the inputs. We can't tell if there is another GFC around the corner, or if China will emit more aerosols than expected. If you want to deliberately misrepresent IPCC predictions, then by all means remove the error bands. Why bother? Just make a new graph that is nothing like IPCC predictions. Monckton seems to get off with that. The "Galileo Movement" obvously think it's ok to do that. I don't know if the graphs have been tampered with other than that. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:04am Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 29th, 2013 at 3:47pm:
Dude first find out what that old tree is......here http://www.woodfortrees.org/ Then maybe if your ape mind will permit, you could graph some satellite data yourself.......................!!!!!!! Chimpy sometimes your absolutely Neanderthal....!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:06am muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 8:38am:
So are you suggesting we place our faith in computer circulation models that couldn't predict the last 15 years...????...of temperature....???? How can we trust them to forecast for 100 years into the future......???????? Crystal ball stuff dude.................!!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:34am
Will the real Figure 1.4 stand up? Just a tad different from the edited version.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:40am Ajax wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:06am:
I don't know what a computer circulation model is. Could you explain the main points? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:50am muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:40am:
Are you playing dumb with me muso......???? Computer climate models Computer circulation models Computer models All the above represent the same thing.....!!!! I forgot to add sh!t in sh!t out i'm afraid.....as the last 15 years have shown.....!!! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by muso on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:58am
If you just said computer models, it would make sense.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Ajax on Oct 30th, 2013 at 10:07am muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:58am:
Ok I'll say computer models from now on. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Chimp_Logic on Oct 30th, 2013 at 11:16am
Ajax likes the year 1998 - likes starting his plots from that year forward
...interesting kindergarten level spin method |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:28pm muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 8:38am:
[/quote] Error bands of what though? All of the error bands for each model is already colour coded? I would think that only the error bands of the models are relevant for assessing the effectiveness of said models? Oh I know I'll just paint a whole graph grey with a sliver of white on either end and call it an error band, not one of a model just a you know general band so I can never be proven wrong. I'm not misrepresenting anything, I still fail to see what the grey represents and not just that but how is it relevant to the effectiveness of the models which are clearly shown with their own color coded error bands. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:31pm muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:34am:
All you had to do was ask ;) I still fail to see how labeling something "95% confidence limit" has anything to do with the models themselves? You think it's acceptable to paint half a graph in colour and say THERE! we predicted everything! A child can do that... IPCC_Fifth_Temperature_Anomoly_Graph.png (26 KB | 41
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:37pm
Oh ahah!
They replaced my above graphic with your one anyway! So instead of letting it stand up to scrutiny, accepting it and saying this is the truth, they zoom out splatter it with colour and call it the new figure 1.4 to hide the failure of the last. You don't think that is the slightest bit dodgy/misleading that it doesn't smell a tiny bit like bias for an agenda? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:51pm Ajax wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 10:07am:
Nazis own words ! ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:54pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:31pm:
All good science includes error value jebus how many billions of times do your masters need me to repeat that? ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:57pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:28pm:
Error bands of what though? All of the error bands for each model is already colour coded? I would think that only the error bands of the models are relevant for assessing the effectiveness of said models? Oh I know I'll just paint a whole graph grey with a sliver of white on either end and call it an error band, not one of a model just a you know general band so I can never be proven wrong. I'm not misrepresenting anything, I still fail to see what the grey represents and not just that but how is it relevant to the effectiveness of the models which are clearly shown with their own color coded error bands.[/quote] The uncertainty principle .... ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 1:15pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 12:57pm:
You misunderstand on both posts. I know everything is uncertain and I know that in science there are error bands. What I'm confused about is the distinction between the coloured bands representing the models, which is where I'm saying "the models have failed" and people saying the models haven't failed because of the grey error bands that represent no models. Muso said they represent "95% certainty* of what? Of humans causing global warming? How does 95% certainty over AGW translate to error bands on a graph of predictions? It doesn't. The predictions are colour coded per climate model, if it falls outside of those colours then the models have failed. Then you had grey bands call it 95% certainty and call it a day? The grey bands represent nothing, it is not clear in the graph as the legend doesn't include them, the description the precedes figure 1.4 fails to mention their purpose. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 1:22pm
Wait wait let me see if I get this right, I'm looking at someone trying to explain it.
It's an "extention" of the error bands using uncertainty? A good point from WUWT: "It grows so that it is around twice the spread between all of the models combined. It is so broad that it would take at least another decade of flat temperatures to falsify it. " Someone else is saying in AR4 it was called Post-SRES range (80%) , so in this case it's a Post-SRES range (95%)? A google search for Post-SRES: "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios" (SRES) explored pathways of future greenhouse gas emissions, derived from self-consistent sets of assumptions about energy use, population growth, economic development, and other factors. " |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by namnugenot on Oct 30th, 2013 at 1:24pm muso wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 9:34am:
Nice you can post graphs....and invariably you start from 1950 and project a trajectory into infinity along that path. 63 years is not even a geological eyeblink as far as shifts in global climate goes and a graph on that timescale is meaningless and to present it without the context of the preceding 100's of thousands of years is patently dishonest. But then if you do it's absolutely fatal to your argument. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 1:37pm
You know what I love most about Figure 1.4 past and present?
In the previous one the grey band span 1.4c to 0.2c, now the new figure 1.4 spans 2c to 0.5c. So not only does it cover 1.5 degrees of temperature anomaly readings, the only way it can be proved wrong is if temperatures flatline until 2040, meaning a flatline instead of 15/16/17 years, it would have to stagnate OR decline (from a starting point of 2000A.D) for 40+ years. Otherwise any temperature rises between now and 2040 fall within the error bands and therefore is proof of global warming. -.- What a f*ck*ng joke..... |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by namnugenot on Oct 30th, 2013 at 1:51pm
It's just manipulation of the numbers and statistics...it has no useful value in the scheme of things. Last week it was....ooooo....it's getting hotter...look at all the fires...now they've had big frosts in Victoria wiping out a lot of wheat and canola crop.
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Oct 30th, 2013 at 2:25pm
Error value is associated with all goodscience
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Vuk11 on Oct 30th, 2013 at 2:39pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 2:25pm:
You don't think a 1.5 degree spread is a bit vague and extreme overkill over compensation for a 40 year period? |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Soren on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 9:49am
Lack of accountability clouding the climate change debate
January 3, 2014 John McLean The world's so-called authority on climate change engages in exaggerated science and has become a political tool. The reality is that the IPCC is in effect little more than a UN-sponsored lobby group, created specifically to investigate and push the ''man-made warming'' line. With no similar organisations to examine other potential causes of climate change, it's only the IPCC voice that is heard. But the IPCC's voice isn't heard in context and with all the necessary caveats; it's distorted via the UNFCCC and others who imply that the IPCC is the sole scientific authority on climate matters. Of course those with vested interest support it, which include governments, politicians, government bodies, ''green'' groups and many scientists. Ultimately it's the unquestioning media, or perhaps a media unwilling to admit that the UN and its agencies might be dishonest or wrong, that misleads the public into believing the IPCC is something it's not. John McLean is the author of three peer-reviewed papers on climate and an expert reviewer for the latest IPCC report. He is also a climate data analyst and a member of the International Climate Science Coalition. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lack-of-accountability-clouding-the-climate-change-debate-20140102-307ja.html#ixzz2pHquzPEi |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by # on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 3:51pm Soren wrote on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 9:49am:
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:22pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 2:39pm:
Sources are required if you require an answer to that question! |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:24pm Soren wrote on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 9:49am:
Vested interests is the con mans only argument: lol my little acorn to snoooozy land ::) |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:25pm namnugenot wrote on Oct 30th, 2013 at 1:51pm:
And an awful lot of people make a comfortable living doing so. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:39pm greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:25pm:
Manipulation of tools equals the human story ;D |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:41pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:39pm:
I've got a funny feeling that you're manipulating your tool right now. |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:57pm greggerypeccary wrote on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:41pm:
Ya'll never get me Greggy cos you're blind :o |
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Title: Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Post by greggerypeccary on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 6:54pm BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Jan 3rd, 2014 at 5:57pm:
Ah, I see. |
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