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http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl Member Run Boards >> Environment >> The psychology of denial http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1379570585 Message started by # on Sep 19^th, 2013 at 4:03pm

Title: The psychology of denial
Post by # on Sep 19^th, 2013 at 4:03pm

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/13/climate-change-scienceofclimatechange
Quote:

It's a common refrain: If people only knew more about the science, there wouldn't be so much polarization on the issue of climate change. But Dan M. Kahan's groundbreaking work has gone a long way to prove that idea wrong. In fact, he's found, it's not the lack of scientific understanding that has led to conflict over climate change, but rather the need to adhere to the philosophy and values of one's "cultural" group.

Kahan, a professor of law and psychology at Yale Law School, says "individualists" — those who believe individuals should be responsible for their own well-being and who are wary of regulation or government control – tend to minimize the risk of climate change. On the other side, he notes, those who identify with the "communitarianism" group favor a larger role for government and other collective entities in securing the welfare of individuals and tend to be wary of commercial activity – he sees them as likely to favor restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions.

In an interview with Yale Environment 360 contributor Diane Toomey, Kahan maintained that in order to break down this polarization, the issue needs to be reframed in a way that minimizes the likelihood that positions on climate change will be identified with a particular cultural group. "Are there ways to combine the science with meanings that would be affirming rather than threatening to people?" he said. "I think if somebody believes that there just aren't any, I think that person just doesn't have much imagination."

More at the link.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Ajax on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 2:35pm

Take a look at that link watch and digest the information and then come back and tell me who the real deniers are....????

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1379387772

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 4:01pm

http://depositphotos.com/3979380/stock-photo-Hand---okay-and-dollar-sign.html

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Chimp_Logic on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 4:10pm

Ajax wrote on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 2:35pm:

Take a look at that link watch and digest the information and then come back and tell me who the real deniers are....????

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1379387772

What is the basis for your rejection of the simple science that underpinns AGW?

Surely it can't be a scientific basis or one based upon logic

It must a political or psychological one.

So your rationale and arguments are null and void in the disciple of science.

Present alternative explanations for the global warming trend or remain a pathetic clown puppet with a Hollywood mask on

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Ajax on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 6:44pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 4:10pm:

What is the basis for your rejection of the simple science that underpinns AGW?

Just like temperature & CO2 donot correlate in our past history and in our present, same with all other IPCC predictions, they've all been shown to be over shooting the mark or they simply just don't correlate.....!!!

Quote:

Surely it can't be a scientific basis or one based upon logic

Well whats it going to be then, two days ago muso was hell bent that the missing heat was in the deep ocean layers, which is what the IPCC where also saying.

Now they tell us in AR5 that most heat is found in the top layers (700 metres).

That's the kinda science the IPCC produce, don't know whether they're Arthur or Marthur, depending upon what day it is.

Quote:

It must a political or psychological one.

Just a common sense one, remember we where told that by 2013 the arctic would be ice free.......??????

Quote:

So your rationale and arguments are null and void in the disciple of science.

Most IPCC predictions have been knocked on the head and your telling me i'm out of wack....??????

Quote:

Present alternative explanations for the global warming trend or remain a pathetic clown puppet with a Hollywood mask on

You mean the fact that we're coming out of a mini ice age has no part at all.....?????

Go figure...............!!!!

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 7:44pm

Ajax wrote on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 6:44pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 20^th, 2013 at 4:10pm:

What is the basis for your rejection of the simple science that underpinns AGW?

Correlation coefficient = 0.86 (strong correlation)

Quote:

Surely it can't be a scientific basis or one based upon logic

Quote:

Semantics. Most heat is found in the top layer. This should be obvious to a primary school student, but some heat is also found in the deeper layers (more than expected).

Quote:

Just a common sense one, remember we where told that by 2013 the arctic would be ice free.......??????

Which climate scientist made that claim? Was there a peer reviewed paper that predicted that? Please provide a link.
(you are also a prime example of how common sense is not very common)

Quote:

You mean the fact that we're coming out of a mini ice age has no part at all.....?????

Well, let's let the data speak for itself. We are not coming out of a mini ice age therefore your "fact" is not a fact. How many studies of paleo temperatures do you neeed?

1800YearGlobalTemperature.jpg (94 KB | 47 )

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Ajax on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 10:34am

Again you're using Mann & Co. Hockey shhhtick methods and models.

Please tell me what happened to the medieval warm period and the mini ice age in that graph you keep posting....???

Somehow Mann & Co. have conveniently omitted them....???

Care to explain ...WHY.......?????

Denying the truth is like kicking rocks bare foot.

There is no correlation between temperature and CO2, never has been in our history.

And right now more than one third of manmade CO2 emissions have gone up into the atmosphere since 1998....yet temperatures aren't rising......???

Where is the correlation...................?????

I know you where using the missing heat has gone into the bottom layers of the ocean (3000 metres).

But the IPCC's AR5 says that most of the heat that went into the ocean is at the top layers (700 metres)

So which is it now muso.....bottom or top.....????

Is there any correlation between CO2 and temperature?

(1).....On a small time scale (NO), (11,000 years)

Showing from 200 to 11000 years ago, the subsequent graph is based on ice core data, readily visible in files hosted on the servers of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):GISP 2 and EPICA Dome C

Graph-1

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-history-a-look-at-multiple-timescales-in-the-context-of-the-shakun-et-al-paper/

(2).....On a medium time scale YES???, (450,000 years)

(NO) , It appears so because of the scale we are zoomed out at.

WARNING ! This is the scale that most global warming sites use to scare the unsuspecting.

Over the past few hundred thousand years of ice core data, a “medium” time scale in this sense, CO2 superficially appears to change in step with temperature if a graph is so zoomed out as to not show sub-millennial time
scales well

Graph-2

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-history-a-look-at-multiple-timescales-in-the-context-of-the-shakun-et-al-paper/

A record of temperature and atmospheric CO2 over the past 400,000 years is preserved in the Vostok Ice Core and is shown in the figure on the right.

It can be seen that there have been a series of large fluctuations in temperature (the Ice Ages), accompanied by large changes in atmospheric CO2.

It is thought that these large temperature fluctuations are triggered by Milankovitch cycles - variations in the earth's orbit that change the amount of energy from the sun that reaches us.

However, on their own, these cycles are not enough to explain the changes in temperature.

The full explanation seems to be that the small change in temperature caused by the changing orbit are amplified by natural processes on earth. These cause CO2 to be released from the oceans and the biosphere, causing an increased greenhouse effect.

This is described more fully in this article from the New Scientist (see also Shackleton 2000). For more details on the timing of changes in CO2 and temperature, click on the figure.

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/paleoclimate.htm#100,000years

(3).....On a long time scale (NO) , (millions of years)

Graph-3

[url]http://s155.n46.n171.n68.static.myhostcenter.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdf[/urll]

(4).....Lately

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 11:29am

Ajax wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 10:34am:

[b]Again you're using Mann & Co. Hockey shhhtick methods and models.

Please tell me what happened to the medieval warm period and the mini ice age in that graph you keep posting....???

No. There have been at least 14 different independent studies since that original regional study was posted in the IPCC FAR. Every one of them shows that the Medieval Warm period was cooler than the current decade.

Do you suffer from short term memory loss? The orginal study was over a much less extensive area. It relied heavily on tree ring data. There are far more accurate proxies available and a large number of proxies agree fairly closely.

The Medieval Warm period and the Little Ice Ages were probably regional events. For the Hockey Stick Ancient history, read here and educate yourself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

It's from Wikipedia, but the references are accurately reported.

I've already explained the issues with the first and last graph, but you choose to ignore it.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 12:51pm

Ajax, can I have some crack please?? Oh, wait, daddy says that's for your indoctrinated friends oh fair enough then go and bore them with your year 11 economics books that you never read the first time!! ;D ;D

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Ajax on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 2:07pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 12:51pm:

So you hate your dad and your a druggie....???

We're not all like that dude.........!!!

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 4:09pm

Don't feed the troll and check your PMs.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 6:45am

Ajax wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 2:07pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 12:51pm:

So you hate your dad and your a druggie....???

We're not all like that dude.........!!!

Lol, is muso calling me a troll? Hey muso- I'm saving the planet mate not pretending I'm above it all like Ajax!!

People like me call these blokes out and only a true fascist would take the side with the most vested interests!

Go the stock market yehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! :o :o

Climate Change is a consumption problem. It's a waste problem. The fat has to be trimmed and that means vacuous tools on the net should, once in awhile, get served a head full of bourbon and coke induced manic laughter!

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 7:04am

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 6:45am:

It's much more than a waste problem. Even if we cut back the waste, we'd still have a problem. If we smoke crack, live in caves and sing kumbaya like 21st century hippies, we'll all go broke.

I've seen what happens to a country when it goes broke. Do you think they worry about luxuries like waste minimisation or biodiversity in such countries? They do not. Anything that moves is eaten, waste oil is dumped. They have government environmental departments that do nothing. They don't have the resources. The country needs to be able to bring in renewable energy projects. This costs money.

Death, This is a serious issue. Some people are probably beyond reason, but for others reading this, your personal snipes about crack smoking don't help the case one bit.
If you want to help save the planet, don't spam with personal attacks. I know that you mean well, but if you continue with this, I will suspend you.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Ajax on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:22am

muso wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 11:29am:

Ajax wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 10:34am:

[b]Again you're using Mann & Co. Hockey shhhtick methods and models.

Please tell me what happened to the medieval warm period and the mini ice age in that graph you keep posting....???

If you look here there are just as many papers (or more) that confirm the medieval was at least as hot as today or hotter.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1379729924

It just goes to show that the science is FAR from settled.

Which in that case how on Earth can they pass a tax on the air we breath.......??????

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:42am

Ajax wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:22am:

If you look here there are just as many papers (or more) that confirm the medieval was at least as hot as today or hotter.

Well I checked out four of those so far at random. They were all regional studies - Northern Norway, Greenland, Sweden...

- and one of the authors specofically explained that the study should not be extrapolated on a global scale, contradicting your claim that it was global.

Check the Law Dome ice core temperature proxy data from Antarctica. What does that tell you?

I'm pretty sure that they are mostly cherry picked regional studies for specific regions that showed warming for this period, and ignoring all others. Look them up yourself and show that I'm wrong.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by miketrees on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 12:05pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

I think this explains a lot

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 2:21pm

A little bit of that, combined with the fact that changes in the environment are creeping and subtle.

Gradually the fishing catch has been dropping in a particular lake, but it was pretty much the same as last year, so it's normal. An octogenarian talks about taking home huge catches back in the 1940s, but it's not relevant because it was so far in the past.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 5:28pm

muso wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 2:21pm:

boiled frog syndrome... cognitive dissonance can't be too far from that tree can it?? Groupthink wise it would seem to be the same story?!!?

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 5:55pm

muso wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 7:04am:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 6:45am:

We simply have to stop putting the brakes on innovation: coal fired power is basically your steam engine from back yonder pulling,... guess what===> coal,...out from under the ground at a faster rate than could be achieved otherwise. THIS IS THE SITUATION FROM WHERE THE PHENOMENON KNOWN AS JEVONS PARADOX GOT ITS NAME!!

The brakes on technology have been pulled by the fascist regulated market pwned by globalists such as Murdoch and his confused brethren of planet accountant agents smiths! Middle men love waste... that is why it continues!

Does ' an economy' really mean 'economy'?? No, it can't: just like 'representative democracy' can't mean 'democracy'!

People make economies and this means middle men must be afforded opportunity to call themselves entrepreneurs; hence waste; hence 19th century elephants in the room!!

You, dear muso, have given the wrong definition of waste: think along the lines of that age old year 11 concept of 'opportunity cost'. The only trick the greedy have is to send others on a wild goose chase and to make use of that time afforded to them by the sending of the foe on said wild goose chase... :D

The costs of Government Intervention in the free market are massive.. but so are the costs of not regulating them properly: GROUPTHINK BREEDS MANY PROBLEMS AND TO THINK THIS COUNTRY OR INDEED THE WORLD WILL FIND THE NECESSARY INSPIRATION TO INNOVATE VIA MURDOCHS WORLD VIEW BEING RAMMED DOWN THEIR THROAT IS SIMPLY WACKED OUT BEYOND ALL RECOGNITION.

NO GOOD EVER CAME FROM THE WASTE OF RESOURCES- AND WE ALL KNOW WHAT NAPOLEON SAID ABOUT THE RESOURCE OF time!

;) ;)

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 5:58pm

Ajax wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:22am:

muso wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 11:29am:

Ajax wrote on Sep 21^st, 2013 at 10:34am:

Again you're using Mann & Co. Hockey shhhtick methods and models.

Please tell me what happened to the medieval warm period and the mini ice age in that graph you keep posting....???

[b]IS IT JUST ME OR AM I WITNESSING ajax UTILISING THE ARGUMENT OF consensus???

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 6:31pm

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 5:55pm:

That was the closest thing you've posted to being a coherent post. I don't agree with everything you said, and I didn't follow parts of it, but try to keep up that standard and drop the personal insults. They don't do your credibility any good.

The key is to ease into a renewable economy, and start to place value on all natural resources. We need to move away from coal and oil and replace them with clean energy. On that I'm sure most people will agree.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by miketrees on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 6:45pm

Our world problem is that every country/ corporation has to move at the same time.

Anyone who gets out in front and adopts expensive renewable s is going to go broke in the short term.

I think any Country that adopts carbon pricing/ carbon taxes has to put taxes on imports from countries that have no carbon tax.

I just cant see the world cooperating on carbon

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by muso on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 7:39pm

miketrees wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 6:45pm:

Well some of the most successful countries in the world have a carbon tax. These include China, Japan, South Korea, India, South Africa, most countries in Europe, some Provinces in Canada, some States in the US etc, but it's not necessarily the way to go. The way that British Columbia approached the carbon tax is good, because some of the carbon tax proceeds ends up in the hands of the population. They love it.

http://www.economist.com/node/18989175

The problem with carbon tax on electricity generation is that the cost is passed on the the consumer and the generator doesn't suffer any loss in profit. If the pressure was on the generator then they would have to find innovative ways to generate electricity that doesn't involve coal. For example, Plantation timber wastes, sugar cane bagasse etc. All of these substances can be introduced into a coal fired power station.

The other factor is that renewable power is coming down in price rapidly, whereas coal generation is getting more and more expensive. In many cases, governments subsidise diesel and other fuels. If they subsidised biofuels instead, they might stand a chance.

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 26^th, 2013 at 3:14pm

muso wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 6:31pm:

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 5:55pm:

To 'decouple' economic growth from fossil fuel use as C. Milne would put it!!

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 26^th, 2013 at 3:21pm

miketrees wrote on Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 6:45pm:

No, I don't think that is correct. That may seem to be correct on the first superficial inspection courtesy of groupthink powered by the propaganda of vested interests but on closer inspection the truth will reveal the economy of it all.

Oh what a concept: THE ECONOMIES OF SCALE.

THE PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN THE FREE MARKET IS YEAR 11 ECONOMICS: what is the worlds biggest market failure again?

ECONOMIES ARE MEANT TO BE ROBUST... THIS IS ALL VERY SIMPLE STUFF AND THE GLOBALIST MEDIA IS THERE TO INTERCEPT THE MESSAGE TO THE MASSES ;) ;)

THE GLOBALIST MEDIA IS NOT THERE TO EDUCATE YOU!!

:D

Title: Re: The psychology of denial
Post by Deathridesahorse on Sep 26^th, 2013 at 3:23pm

ALTHOUGH, to give credibility to mike trees, he did say short-term so fair enough but still I wish to get my two cents in :)