Ocean temperature made Queensland floods worse: study
Nicky Phillips
May 16, 2012

Abnormally high ocean temperatures off the coast of northern Australia contributed to the extreme rainfall that flooded three-quarters of Queensland over the summer of 2010-11, scientists report.   :(

A Sydney researcher, Jason Evans, ran a series of climate models and found above average sea surface temperatures throughout December 2010 increased the amount of rainfall across the state by 25 per cent on average.

While the study did not look at the cause of ocean warming in the region, a physical oceanographer, Matthew England, said climate change could not be excluded as a possible driver of this extreme rainfall event.   ;)


Between December 23 and 28 many places experienced up to 400 millimetres of rain in a few days. "That [means] 100 millimetres of rain was attributable to sea surface temperatures," said Dr Evans, a future fellow at the University of NSW's Climate Change Research Centre.

While the flooding occurred during one of the strongest La Nina events on record it was insufficient to produce the extreme rainfall recorded, he said.

The effect of the high sea surface temperatures coupled with the impact of a La Nina, both of which are associated with above average rainfall over eastern Australia, plus tropical cyclone Tasha, combined to create an extreme weather event, he said.

The resulting floods stretched across 1.3 million square kilometres all the way to Brisbane, caused billions of dollars in damage and killed 35 people.   :(

Matthew England, who was not involved in the study, said ocean temperatures off northern Australia were the highest on record at the time of the Queensland floods.

"While the La Nina event played a big role in this record ocean warmth, so too did the long-term warming trend over the past 50 years," Professor England, the co-director of the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre, said.

To measure the extent high sea surface temperature contributed to the rainfall, Dr Evans used a regional climate model to compare the effect of the 2010 December sea surface temperatures with the sea surface temperatures from previous La Nina events.

"All the simulations produced high rainfall, but only the simulations with the high sea surface temperatures [from December 2010] were able to produce extreme precipitation," said Dr Evans, whose findings are published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Warmer sea surface temperatures increase the amount of moisture transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere.

"If you've got the right winds they carry this moisture to land, and [because] land is hotter than the ocean during the day it will cause convection and rain," Dr Evans said.

While both simulations underestimated the amount of rain that fell in Queensland in December 2010, the model that used the higher sea surface temperatures came closest to the rainfall recorded in the region.

"The model doesn't replicate the observations perfectly but it clearly shows what we saw, which was from Cairns to south-east QLD all [regions] received abnormally high precipitation," he said.

If increases in sea surface temperatures can be attributed to global warming, the probability of La Nina events producing extreme rainfall in the future would also rise, he said.

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/ocean-temperature-made-queensland-floods-worse--study-20120516-1ypvy.html#ixzz1v07Q4iHa

And so it beings.

We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common.

To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics.

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 1:55pm:

And so it beings. We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common. To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics.

So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900?

The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those?

What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those?

FriYAY wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:05pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 1:55pm: And so it beings. We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common. To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics. So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900? The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those? What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those?

Not more rainfall, but a lack of flood proofing infrastructure such as dams, and building restrictions.

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:07pm:

FriYAY wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:05pm: Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 1:55pm: And so it beings. We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common. To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics. So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900? The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those? What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those? Not rainfall, but a lack of flood proofing infrastructure such as dams, and building restrictions.

Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahaha

Oh no, not rainfall, it was magic water.

Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahaha

1909

3rd December: Cairns: Heavy rain; 575 points recorded during 24 hours previous to 9 a.m. Mulgrave River in flood; tramway bridge submerged; traffic beyond Mulgrave suspended. All creeks in district bankers; Barron and Stony Creek Falls in flood.


25th to 28th December: Phenomenal rainfall over the watershed of the Brisbane River. Mary River at Gympie in flood; highest level reached, 48 feet 9 inches, or 20 feet 9 inches above the decking of the Channon-street bridge.



WOW!!!!

And not a fear monger in sight!!

FriYAY wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:15pm:

1909 3rd December: Cairns: Heavy rain; 575 points recorded during 24 hours previous to 9 a.m. Mulgrave River in flood; tramway bridge submerged; traffic beyond Mulgrave suspended. All creeks in district bankers; Barron and Stony Creek Falls in flood. 25th to 28th December: Phenomenal rainfall over the watershed of the Brisbane River. Mary River at Gympie in flood; highest level reached, 48 feet 9 inches, or 20 feet 9 inches above the decking of the Channon-street bridge. WOW!!!! And not a fear monger in sight!!

And if the sea temps then had been the same as now, rather than cooler, the flood would of been worse.

____ wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:27pm:

FriYAY wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:15pm: 1909 3rd December: Cairns: Heavy rain; 575 points recorded during 24 hours previous to 9 a.m. Mulgrave River in flood; tramway bridge submerged; traffic beyond Mulgrave suspended. All creeks in district bankers; Barron and Stony Creek Falls in flood. 25th to 28th December: Phenomenal rainfall over the watershed of the Brisbane River. Mary River at Gympie in flood; highest level reached, 48 feet 9 inches, or 20 feet 9 inches above the decking of the Channon-street bridge. WOW!!!! And not a fear monger in sight!! And if the sea temps then had been the same as now, rather than cooler, the flood would of been worse.

LOL, coulda, woulda, shoulda.

FriYAY wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:13pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:07pm: FriYAY wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:05pm: Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 1:55pm: And so it beings. We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common. To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics. So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900? The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those? What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those? Not more rainfall, but a lack of flood proofing infrastructure such as dams, and building restrictions. Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahaha Oh no, not rainfall, it was magic water. Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahahaha

So you are saying that no dams were built from 1974 to now. I can think of a couple of very big ones, not to mention all the on-farm storage developed as well.

FriYAY wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:29pm:

____ wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:27pm: FriYAY wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:15pm: 1909 3rd December: Cairns: Heavy rain; 575 points recorded during 24 hours previous to 9 a.m. Mulgrave River in flood; tramway bridge submerged; traffic beyond Mulgrave suspended. All creeks in district bankers; Barron and Stony Creek Falls in flood. 25th to 28th December: Phenomenal rainfall over the watershed of the Brisbane River. Mary River at Gympie in flood; highest level reached, 48 feet 9 inches, or 20 feet 9 inches above the decking of the Channon-street bridge. WOW!!!! And not a fear monger in sight!! And if the sea temps then had been the same as now, rather than cooler, the flood would of been worse. LOL, coulda, woulda, shoulda.

No, basic science.

There will never be a direct link between climate change and individual weather events, for the same reason you can never establish a direct link between smoking and individual cancer cases.

wonder if they were using those dodgy Russian figures??? well you never know do you?

cods wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:06pm:

wonder if they were using those dodgy Russian figures??? well you never know do you?

well it was based on a 'mode'. And we know what the accuracy of climate models is... 0%.

Climate models have all failed on the most basic test of a model which is to retrofit it onto historical patterns. These models are so bad they cant even 'predict' YESTERDAYS weather.

That's because they are climate models, not weather models.

FriYAY wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 3:05pm:

Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 1:55pm: And so it beings. We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common. To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics. So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900? The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those? What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those?

i WONDER IF THEY WERE EL NINO YEARS?  ::) ::) ::)

freediver wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:40pm:

That's because they are climate models, not weather models.

lONGY KNOWS THAT, HE IS JUST HOPING YOU WILL LET HIM STICK HIS HAND DOWN YOUR PANTS FOR AWHILE BUT YOU RUINED IT!


HE IS SO SAD NOW- YOU DON'T GET ANY CRACK SORRY!!

freediver wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:40pm:

That's because they are climate models, not weather models.

which is what i was referring to - CLIMATE models. does it help if i replace the phrase 'last years CLIMATE"?

You are clever enough to know what I am referring to. The test of any model is to retrofit it onto existing historical data and compare the fit. Climate models routinely fail this by huge margins. Perhpas that explains why none of these models' predictions ever comes to pass

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:54pm:

freediver wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 6:40pm: That's because they are climate models, not weather models. which is what i was referring to - CLIMATE models. does it help if i replace the phrase 'last years CLIMATE"? You are clever enough to know what I am referring to. The test of any model is to retrofit it onto existing historical data and compare the fit. Climate models routinely fail this by huge margins. Perhpas that explains why none of these models' predictions ever comes to pass

bottles, glass. glass, bottles. to a decrepit ol fart like you with a large dose of parnoid schizopheria bangin around in the old maggot pile, you'd bother with caring what you've got to say or the distinctions you can or can't make......

longy is of the ilk that the next generations pants are for putting your hand down!!!

  ::) ::)

Can we try debating the topic for a change, not each other?

I'll be happy to oblige on that measure Freediver (with some reservations). It's just I got the impression from blowhard58 that taking potshot snips was a obligation you confer without regard to the topic at hand....

BatteriesNotIncluded wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 6:42pm:

FriYAY wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 3:05pm: Doctor Jolly wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 1:55pm: And so it beings. We are now entering the phase where direct links between climate change and extreme weather will become more common. To me its a no brainer that warm oceans means more rainfall.  Its been happening every time we have El Nino.  More warmth = more rainfall to the tropics. So what caused the massive QLD floods that saw houses washed into the oceans around 1900? The massive 1956 floods in the MDB were surpassed only by the 1896 floods....what caused those? What about the 71, 73 and the masssive 1974 floods, what caused those? i WONDER IF THEY WERE EL NINO YEARS?  ::) ::) ::)

La Nina years. El Nino years bring the cold waters and droughts.

La Nina years bring floods. Always have, always will. A warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water vapour. The best analogy I've heard is it's a bit like injecting a baseball batter with steroids. Before the steroids the home runs came but they weren't hit as far and they didn't come as frequently. The steroids increase the number of home runs but which home runs do we attribute to the steroids and which ones do we attribute to the natural talents of the hitter. 

During the El Nino years the warmer atmosphere more rapidly dries out the land, reducing run off when it does rain and threatening our water supplies. This long term drying trend has already been observed in Australia and is why Prof. Flannery advocated desal plants. While floods will sometimes mask it, the risks associated with this long term trend are no less real.  

Get used to more floods and water shortages, as absurd as that may superficially sound. 

I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it.

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 8:29am:

I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it.

Agreed, La Nina and El Nino events manifest themselves in the form of sea surface temperatures. The point I was trying to make is that a La Nina today will bring more rain than in the past because the warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water than in the past. And the droughts brought about by an El Nino will be more intense because the warmer atmosphere drys out the soil at a faster rate.

freediver wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 8:29am:

I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it.

Surely the two combine as the one and the same phenomena!  :o :o

MOTR wrote on May 17^th, 2012 at 7:14pm:

freediver wrote on May 17th, 2012 at 8:29am: I think it's more about the sea surface temperature - warmer - more evaporation - more rain. Air temperature just follows it. Agreed, La Nina and El Nino events manifest themselves in the form of sea surface temperatures. The point I was trying to make is that a La Nina today will bring more rain than in the past because the warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold water than in the past. And the droughts brought about by an El Nino will be more intense because the warmer atmosphere drys out the soil at a faster rate.

...feedback processes?  ::)